15.

760: National Cranberry Case

1. Admin: Webvan case; UHS case

2. What are the sources of variability in the NCC case?

3. What are the problems NCC is experiencing that should be

addressed?

4. Describe the Process Flow Diagram.

5. Assess possible options for relieving truck waiting.

6. How would you assess converting some dry bins to wet?

7. How would you assess whether you can begin at 8 am?

8. How would you assess labor cost impacts?

9. How would you deal with the distribution of wet/dry and volume

over the days of the season?

10. Can you eliminate/reduce demand peaks?

 National Cranberry

Process Flow Diagram

Unload

5-10 min/truck
weighed/ tested/
graded sampled Freeze

1500 bbls/hr 1500 bbls/hr

Bulk Bins
dry destone dechaff 800 bbl/hr
1-16
250 bbls 3 x 400 bbls/hr
=4000 bbls
dry
2 x 1500 bbls/hr separate Bulk Truck
both destone 2000 bbl/hr
17-24
250 bbls wet
=2000 bbls dry Bag
dechaff 3 x 200 bbls/hr 667 bbl/hr
wet
25-27 2 x 1500 bbls/hr
3x400 bbls = 1200 bbls Freeze
 Wet Cranberry Inventory Buildup
Assume: buildup 18000 x 70% wet =12600 bbl/day
12600/12=1050 bbls/hr; Plant begins operations at 11:00;
Drying bottleneck @ 600 bbl/hr Truck waiting =
7800 16.67 hrs x (4600/2)/75
7500
= 511 hours

-600/hr
6000

450x8
4500
4200

3000
3200/1050 4600/600
= trucks begin waiting at 10:03 am = 7.67hrs
= 2:40 am
1050x4 No more trucks
1500

7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00 1:00 3:00

Plant is empty after 7800/600 = 13 hours after 19:00 or 8 am the next morning
Total run time = 12600/600 = 21 hours
 Wet Cranberry Inventory Buildup
Assume: buildup 18000 x 70% wet =12600 bbl/day
12600/12=1050 bbls/hr; Plant begins operations at 7:00;
Drying bottleneck @ 600 bbl/hr Truck waiting =
8.67 hrs x (2200/2)/75
7500
= 127 hours
450x12
=5400
6000

2200/600
4500
= 3.67hrs
-600/hr = 20:40 pm
No more trucks
3000
3200/450 = 7.1
= trucks begin waiting at 14:06 pm

1500

7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00 1:00 3:00

Plant is empty after 5400/600 = 9 hours after 19:00 or 4 am the next morning
Total run time = 12600/600 = 21 hours
 Wet Cranberry Inventory Buildup
Assume: buildup 18000 x 70% wet =12600 bbl/day
12600/12=1050 bbls/hr; Plant begins operations at 7:00;
Drying bottleneck @ 800 bbl/hr Truck waiting = 0 !!

7500

6000

3000/800
4500
250x12 = 3.75hrs
=3000 = 20:45 pm
Processing complete
3000

1500
No truck buildup

7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00 1:00 3:00

Plant is empty after 3000/800 = 3.75 hours after 19:00 or 20;45 the next morning
Total run time = 12600/800 = 15.75 hours; dry berry processing drops to 400/hr
 15.760

Basic Concepts in Queueing

System Performance = f(System parameters)

Arrival rate (λ )
Output/throughput rate (λ ) Service rate (µ )
Inventory Level/Queue Size/ (� ) Service time (M )
Line length Number of servers (S )
Waiting Time/Cycle Time (W ) Queue/Buffer capacity (R )
Capacity or Server utilization (ρ ) Capacity or Server utilization (ρ )
Probability that Queue is full ( Pfull ) Number of Service classes (K )
 Kiwanee Dumpers:Capacity Analysis

Busy Day: Arrival rate =

18,000 bbl/day =
1500bbl/hr = 20
trucks/hr

L= ρ2/(1-ρ)

W= ρ2/λ(1-ρ)
 Basic Concepts in Queueing:

Nonlinearities in Congestion in Stochastic Systems

If service times
and interarrival

Total wait in the queue

times have
exponential
distributions,
∆WB
then
L= ρ2/(1-ρ) B

W= ρ /λ(1-ρ)
2 ∆WA A
∆ρ
∆ρ
0 1
(Arrival Rate / Service Rate = ρ)

= “congestion”

 Management of Queues
The Physics of Waiting Lines
– Number and type of servers
– Waiting time, service time, and system time
– Queue discipline
– Number of people in queue
– System utilization
Total time in the queue

Total
Cost

Cost
∆WB
Capacity
B
Cost

∆WA A Delay
∆ρ ∆ρ Cost

0 Congestion 1 0 Congestion 1
(Arrival Rate / Service Rate) (Arrival Rate / Service Rate)
 Management of Queues

SERVERS
The Psychology of Waiting Lines

WAITING LINE
CUSTOMERS

Propositions
1. Unoccupied time feels longer than occupied time

2. Process waits feel longer than in process waits

3. Anxiety makes waits seem longer

4. Uncertain waits seem longer than known, finite waits

5. Unexplained waits are longer than explained

6. Unfair waits are longer than equitable waits

7. The more valuable the service, the longer the customer will wait

8. Solo waits feel longer than group waits