Cash Flow Model From ROIC
Cash Flow Model From ROIC
Amount Pct
Opening Net Plant 1,120,197 67.81%
Opening WC and Other 531,711 47.47%
Opening Invested Capital 1,651,908 100.00%
Growth 5%
Stable Cap Exp/Depreciation 1.45 1.45
Depreciation to Net Plant 11.23% 11.23%
1 2
Opening Balance 0.00 1.00
Add: Capital Expenditures 1 1.00 1.05
Less: Retirements 0.00 0.00
Closing Balance 0.00 1.00 2.05
Depreciation 6.67% 0.00 0.07
Cap Exp to Depreciation 0.00 15.75
Accum Depr
Opening Balance 0.00 0.00
Add: Depreciation Expense 0.00 0.07
Less: Retirements 0.00 0.00
Closing Balance 0.00 0.07
Net Plant 0.00 1.00
Depreciation to Net Plant 0.00% 6.67%
Investment Balance
Growth Rate Change
Cap Exp to Depreciation (Interpolate) 1.45 1.45
Net Plant Depreciation Rate (Interpolate) 11.23% 11.23%
NOPAT
Tax Rate
EBIT =NOPAT/(1-t)
Add: Depreciation 125,826.85 132,118.20
EBITDA 125,826.85 132,118.20
Less: Cap Exp 181,836.70 190,928.54
Less: Change in WC
Less: Taxes on EBIT
FCF -56,009.85 -58,810.34
Number of Shares
Equity Value
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1 1 1 1 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2.05 3.15 4.31 5.53 6.80 8.14 9.55
1.10 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.34 1.41 1.48
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3.15 4.31 5.53 6.80 8.14 9.55 11.03
0.14 0.21 0.29 0.37 0.45 0.54 0.64
8.07 5.51 4.23 3.46 2.96 2.59 2.32
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
11.03 12.58 14.21 15.92 17.71 19.60 21.58
1.55 1.63 1.71 1.80 1.89 1.98 2.08
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
12.58 14.21 15.92 17.71 19.60 21.58 22.66
0.74 0.84 0.95 1.06 1.18 1.31 1.44
2.11 1.94 1.81 1.69 1.60 1.52 1.45
17 18 19 20 21 21 21 21
22.66 23.79 24.98 26.23 27.54 28.92 30.36 31.88
2.18 2.29 2.41 2.53 2.65 2.79 2.93 3.07
1.05 1.10 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.34 1.41 1.48
23.79 24.98 26.23 27.54 28.92 30.36 31.88 33.48
1.51 1.59 1.67 1.75 1.84 1.93 2.02 2.13
1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45
13.61 14.29 15.00 15.75 16.54 17.37 18.24 19.15 20.10 21.11
2.23 2.34 2.46 2.58 2.71 2.85 2.99 3.14 3.30 3.46
1.55 1.63 1.71 1.80 1.89 1.98 2.08 2.18 2.29 2.41
14.29 15.00 15.75 16.54 17.37 18.24 19.15 20.10 21.11 22.16
19.87 20.86 21.90 23.00 24.15 25.36 26.63 27.96 29.35 30.82
11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23%
1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45
11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23%
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
54.53 57.25 60.12 63.12 66.28 69.59 73.07 76.73 80.56 84.59
5.25 5.52 5.79 6.08 6.39 6.70 7.04 7.39 7.76 8.15
2.53 2.65 2.79 2.93 3.07 3.23 3.39 3.56 3.73 3.92
57.25 60.12 63.12 66.28 69.59 73.07 76.73 80.56 84.59 88.82
3.64 3.82 4.01 4.21 4.42 4.64 4.87 5.12 5.37 5.64
1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45
22.16 23.27 24.44 25.66 26.94 28.29 29.70 31.19 32.75 34.39
3.64 3.82 4.01 4.21 4.42 4.64 4.87 5.12 5.37 5.64
2.53 2.65 2.79 2.93 3.07 3.23 3.39 3.56 3.73 3.92
23.27 24.44 25.66 26.94 28.29 29.70 31.19 32.75 34.39 36.10
32.36 33.98 35.68 37.46 39.34 41.30 43.37 45.54 47.81 50.21
11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23%
1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45
11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23% 11.23%
21 21 21 21 21 21
88.82 93.26 97.92 102.82 107.96 113.36
8.56 8.99 9.43 9.91 10.40 10.92
4.12 4.32 4.54 4.76 5.00 5.25
93.26 97.92 102.82 107.96 113.36 119.03
5.92 6.22 6.53 6.85 7.20 7.56
1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45
Capital Expenditures
Cap Exp/Depreciation
116 (1,715) - - -
- - 2,648 20,413 21,158
(100) (418) (1,023) (2,294) (509)
(6) 372 (799) (1,219) (934)
(16,771) (6,551) 9,180 155,962 463,776
- - - - -
0.07 2.12 4.34
0.07 2.03 4.24
56,771 74,695 80,260
56,771 78,007 82,153
- - -
1,944.00 3,376.00 10,210.00 24,481.00 59,518.00
EV to Equity
Bridge
-1 16,721.00 308,092.00 404,264.00 716,218.00
-1 312.00 323.00 232,686.00 76,042.00
1,098.00 27,966.00 18,165.00 61,703.00
- - - -
- - - -
6,917.00 16,510.00 40,204.00 121,554.00
- - - -
- - 2,643.00 -
- 27,515.00 35,877.00 -
- - 3,890.00 9,922.00
-1 - - - -
-1 - - - -
1,505.00 8,116.00 64,780.00 91,962.00
26,553.00 388,522.00 802,509.00 1,077,401.00
- - - -
13,771.00 32,083.00 132,366.00 46,251.00
- - - 99,938.00
- - - 140,899.00
1 - 16,339.00 24,473.00 -
1 20,000.00 - - -
1 142.00 3,311.00 14,836.00 34,951.00
- - - -
- - - -
- 340.00 14,803.00 59,738.00
33,913.00 52,073.00 186,478.00 381,777.00
- - - -
38,394.00 461,666.00 1,097,267.00 1,513,042.00
101,884.00 578,510.00 1,371,312.00 2,114,502.00
1 1 1 1
60,117 225,724 521,074 834,634
60,117 225,724 521,074 834,634
- - - -
60,117 142,921 373,399 677,854
- - - - - -
7.67 7.82 -0.46 -1.11 3.77 3.97
7.53 7.68 -0.46 -1.11 3.70 3.91
83,460 84,936 85,854 86,791 93,644 99,979
85,012 86,485 85,854 86,791 95,416 101,514
- - - - - -
129,628.00 156,093.00 235,231.00 262,716.00 234,370.00 245,798.00
- - - - - -
75,744.00 82,312.00 176,448.00 350,230.00 261,333.00 214,656.00
8,740.00 16,831.00 9,541.00 5,474.00 6,707.00 1,727.00
193,277.00 244,271.00 406,659.00 554,433.00 320,077.00 388,156.00
- - - -
- - - -
28,559.00 26,587.00 44,505.00 62,349.00 60,543.00 51,918.00
- - - - 117,766.00 195,346.00
- - - 94,535.00 642,214.00 60,591.00
88,607.00 99,676.00 336,571.00 34,353.00 179,421.00 88,702.00
394,927.00 469,677.00 973,724.00 1,101,374.00 1,588,061.00 1,001,096.00
- - - - - -
2,652,787.00 3,454,945.00 3,643,863.00 3,605,526.00 4,503,117.00 5,027,487.00
3,349,512.00 4,380,403.00 5,777,614.00 6,348,692.00 6,883,502.00 6,724,439.00
1 1 1 1 1 1
1,651,908 2,492,484 3,772,735 3,718,412 3,542,606 3,558,626
1,651,908 2,492,484 3,772,735 3,718,412 3,542,606 3,558,626
- - - - - -
1,243,271 2,072,196 3,132,610 3,745,574 3,630,509 3,550,616
622 874