Figure 4.1.

Oil price decline

Figure 4.1.A. Spot oil prices
Figure 4.1.B. Commodity price changes during January 22-April 21, 2020
Figure 4.1.C. Largest one-month declines in oil prices since 1970
Figure 4.1.D. Largest cumulative three-month declines in oil prices since 1970
Figure 4.1.E. OECD oil inventories
Figure 4.1.F. U.S. oil inventories

Figure 4.2 Drivers of the 2020 oil price plunge

Figure 4.2.A. Change in transport demand
Figure 4.2.B. Container shipping throughput volume growth
Figure 4.2.C. Final oil consumption, by country and sector
Figure 4.2.D. Global oil demand growth
Figure 4.2.E. Impact of a 1 percentage point growth decline in major economies on oil price
Figure 4.2.F. Contribution to largest oil price declines since 1970

Figure 4.3 Oil markets during past recessions and travel disruptions
Figure 4.3.A. Oil price
Figure 4.3.B. Oil consumption growth around recessions

Figure 4.4. Oil market developments during past oil price plunges
Figure 4.4.A. Global oil price
Figure 4.4.B. Global oil production
Figure 4.4.C. Global rig count
Figure 4.4.D. Oil demand growth

Figure 4.5 Macroeconomic developments in EMDEs during past oil price plunges
Figure 4.5.A. Cumulative impulse response of output, by type of oil price plunge
Figure 4.5.B. Cumulative impulse response of output to demand-driven oil price plunges
Figure 4.5.C. Cumulative impulse response of output to supply-driven oil price plunges
Figure 4.5.D. Supply-driven oil price plunges: Cumulative investment and consumption resp
Figure 4.5.E. Demand-driven oil price-plunges: Cumulative output responses of energy-exp
Figure 4.5.F. Supply-driven oil price plunges: Cumulative output responses of energy-expor

Figure 4.6 Impact of 2014-16 oil price plunge on energy exporters

Figure 4.6.A. Cumulative output increase for energy-exporting EMDEs, 2014-16
Figure 4.6.B. Share of energy-exporting EMDEs with increasing/decreasing growth
Figure 4.6.C. Foreign exchange reserves and nominal effective exchange rate appreciation
Figure 4.6.D. Change in fiscal balance in energy exporters, 2014-16
Figure 4.7 Impact of 2014-16 oil price plunge on energy importers
Figure 4.7.A. Consumption of fuels, 2018
Figure 4.7.B. Contribution of mining investment to U.S. GDP growth and U.S. industrial pro

Figure 4.8 Pandemic and mitigation measures in EMDE energy exporters

Figure 4.8.A. Number of reported infections in EMDEs
Figure 4.8.B. Number of COVID-19-related fatalities in EMDEs
Figure 4.8.C. Stringency of mitigation measures
Figure 4.8.D. Share of informal economy in EMDEs

Figure 4.9 EMDE energy exporters' vulnerabilities: 2014-16 and 2019

Figure 4.9.A. Resource sector activity in energy-exporting EMDEs
Figure 4.9.B. Export concentration
Figure 4.9.C. Share of energy revenues in government revenues of energy-exporting EMDE
Figure 4.9.D. Commodity export share of energy exporters
Figure 4.9.E. Government and corporate debt of energy exporters
Figure 4.9.F. Fiscal balance of energy exporters
since 1970

r economies on oil prices

t oil price plunges

price plunge
ven oil price plunges
en oil price plunges
t and consumption responses in energy-exporting EMDEs
esponses of energy-exporting EMDEs
ponses of energy-exporting EMDEs

Es, 2014-16
reasing growth
hange rate appreciation of energy exporters, 2014-16
and U.S. industrial production growth

exporters

energy-exporting EMDEs
Figure 4.1.A. Spot oil prices
US$/bbl OPEC+ agree
OPEC+ fail to
70 agree to cuts to new cuts
60
50
40
30
20 COVID-19
human-to-human
10 transmission
confirmed
0
1
7
13
19
25
31
37
43
49
55
61
67
73
Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.

Note:Oil price refers to Brent oil prices. January 22, 2020 is the date the first human-to hum
was announced. Last observation is May 20, 2020.
Return to Read Me
 Date
1/1/2020
EC+ agree 1/2/2020
new cuts 1/3/2020
Column 1/6/2020
1/7/2020
U 1/8/2020
1/9/2020
Europea 1/10/2020
1/13/2020
n Brent 1/14/2020
1/15/2020
1/16/2020
1/17/2020
1/20/2020
1/21/2020
1/22/2020
1/23/2020
1/24/2020
1/27/2020
1/28/2020
1/29/2020
1/30/2020
1/31/2020
55
61
67
73
79
85
91
97

2/3/2020
2/4/2020
2/5/2020
2/6/2020
2/7/2020
2/10/2020
2/11/2020
2/12/2020
2/13/2020
the first human-to human Covid-19 transmission 2/14/2020
2/17/2020
2/20/2020
2/21/2020
2/24/2020
2/25/2020
2/26/2020
2/27/2020
2/28/2020
3/2/2020
3/3/2020
3/4/2020
3/5/2020
3/6/2020
3/9/2020
3/10/2020
3/11/2020
3/12/2020
3/13/2020
3/16/2020
3/17/2020
3/18/2020
3/19/2020
3/20/2020
3/23/2020
3/24/2020
3/25/2020
3/26/2020
3/27/2020
3/30/2020
3/31/2020
4/1/2020
4/2/2020
4/3/2020
4/6/2020
4/7/2020
4/8/2020
4/9/2020
4/10/2020
4/13/2020
4/14/2020
4/15/2020
4/16/2020
4/17/2020
4/20/2020
4/21/2020
4/22/2020
4/23/2020
4/24/2020
4/27/2020
4/28/2020
4/29/2020
4/30/2020
5/1/2020
5/4/2020
5/5/2020
5/6/2020
5/7/2020
5/8/2020
5/11/2020
5/12/2020
5/13/2020
5/14/2020
5/15/2020
5/18/2020
5/19/2020
5/20/2020
Dated Brent European Brent
66.0 67.1
66.2 67.1
68.5 69.1
68.8 70.3
68.2 68.7
65.6 67.3
65.4 66.6
65.0 66.8
64.2 64.1
64.7 64.5
64.2 63.3
64.5 64.6
64.9 64.1
65.2 64.6
64.6 63.7
63.2 62.1
###
62.2 61.3
60.7 59.3
59.2 58.5
59.5 59.4
59.8 59.5
57.6 57.7
56.7 57.8
54.4 54.0
54.0 53.9
55.3 55.4
55.1 55.2
54.5 54.5
53.3 53.4
54.0 54.0
55.9 55.5
56.5 56.3
57.2 57.4
57.6 57.8
59.3 59.6
58.5 58.6
56.5 56.7
54.7 55.3
53.4 55.0
52.8 52.2
50.0 51.3
51.8 52.5
51.9 52.2
51.3 51.9
49.9 51.3
45.4 45.6
34.5 35.3
37.8 35.6
###
35.7 34.5
32.7 31.0
34.1 32.3
30.1 28.0
28.7 28.0
26.1 22.8
28.2 24.0
27.5 25.6
27.1 23.8
27.1 24.5
27.8 25.6
26.7 23.6
24.8 22.4
26.3 19.2
26.3 14.9
24.9 15.0
29.9 20.2
34.4 24.3
33.1 22.6
31.9 22.1
33.0 25.2
31.8 20.2
31.5 20.2
31.8 20.2
30.1 21.7
27.8 19.8
###
27.8 18.7
28.3 19.8
25.9 17.4
19.0 9.1
20.5 13.8
21.6 15.1
21.8 15.9
20.0 15.2
20.4 15.6
24.2 17.9
26.2 18.1
26.4 18.5
27.5 20.4
31.0 25.5
29.6 24.2
29.2 24.2
30.9 24.2
29.8 25.5
30.0 26.7
29.2 27.9
31.1 29.9
32.5 31.0
35.0 33.3
34.7 33.3
35.8 33.3
Figure 4.1.B. Commodity price changes during January 22-A
Percent
15
0
-15
-30
-45
-60
-75
-90

Silver
Platinum
Oil

metals
Natural

Coal
rubber

Base

Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.

Note: "Base metals" is an unweighted average for aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and z
unweighted average for corn, rice and wheat."Oil price" refers to European Brent spot oil pr
commodity prices between January 22, 2020 and April 21, 2020, which was the trough in B
Return to Read Me
 ng January 22-April 21, 2020
Silver

Agriculture
metals

Gold
Base

r, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. "Agriculture" shows an

ropean Brent spot oil price. Figure shows the change in
ich was the trough in Brent prices.
Commodity Price Change
Oil -85.3
Platinum -28.7
Natural
rubber -25.7
Coal -24.5
Base
metals -16.9
Silver -16.7
Agriculture -14.3
Gold 8.0
Figure 4.1.C. Largest one-month declines in oil prices since

Percent

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50
Mar-20 Feb-86 Oct-08
Source: World Bank.
Note: Oil price refers to Brent oil prices. Figure shows the largest declines in oil prices since
indicate the date in which the decline occurred. Months with consecutive declines are omitt
Return to Read Me
oil prices since 1970
Period
Mar-20
Feb-86
Oct-08
Jan-15

Oct-08 Jan-15
clines in oil prices since 1970. Dates on the horizontal axis
utive declines are omitted.
Decline
-40
-36
-27
-22
Figure 4.1.D. Largest cumulative three-month declines in oi

Percent

0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
Apr-20 Dec-08 Mar-86
Source: World Bank.
Note:Oil price refers to Brent oil prices. Figure shows the largest declines in oil prices since
indicate the date in which the decline occurred. Months with consecutive declines are omitt
Return to Read Me
h declines in oil prices since 1970
Period
Apr-20
Dec-08
Mar-86
Jan-15

Mar-86 Jan-15
clines in oil prices since 1970. Dates on the horizontal axis
utive declines are omitted.
Decline
-63.3
-53.2
-49.9
-46.4
Figure 4.1.E. OECD oil inventories
Days of demand
110

100

90

80

70
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
Source: International Energy Agency; World Bank.
Note: Days of demand represent the level of OECD oil inventories at the end of the quarter
divided by average daily OECD oil demand. Last observation is 2020Q1.
Return to Read Me
 Date
3/1/2005
6/1/2005
9/1/2005
12/1/2005
3/1/2006
6/1/2006
9/1/2006
12/1/2006
3/1/2007
6/1/2007
9/1/2007
12/1/2007
3/1/2008
6/1/2008
9/1/2008
12/1/2008
3/1/2009
6/1/2009
9/1/2009
12/1/2009
3/1/2010
6/1/2010
9/1/2010
12/1/2010
3/1/2011
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/
3/

6/1/2011
9/1/2011
12/1/2011
3/1/2012
6/1/2012
9/1/2012
t the end of the quarter (government and industry) 12/1/2012
0Q1. 3/1/2013
6/1/2013
9/1/2013
12/1/2013
 3/1/2014
6/1/2014
9/1/2014
12/1/2014
3/1/2015
6/1/2015
9/1/2015
12/1/2015
3/1/2016
6/1/2016
9/1/2016
12/1/2016
3/1/2017
6/1/2017
9/1/2017
12/1/2017
3/1/2018
6/1/2018
9/1/2018
12/1/2018
3/1/2019
6/1/2019
9/1/2019
12/1/2019
3/1/2020
Days of demand
78.2
83.9
82.9
80.8
79.9
85.1
85.9
82.7
81.4
85.0
83.9
80.9
82.7
85.8
88.3
88.1
90.8
95.3
94.9
90.5
90.8
93.7
90.6
89.0
89.4
93.6
89.3
88.6
90.6
92.8
92.9
90.8
92.5
92.7
92.2
89.1
 90.8
94.2
93.4
92.4
93.7
97.6
96.3
98.1
98.8
101.0
98.7
96.9
98.5
97.7
95.2
91.8
91.4
92.7
91.9
92.6
93.1
95.5
93.5
93.1
99.3
Figure 4.1.F. U.S. oil inventories
Million barrels
2,200,000.0
2,100,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,900,000.0
1,800,000.0
1,700,000.0
1,600,000.0
1,500,000.0
1,400,000.0
1/7

1/7

1/7

1/7
1/7

1/7

1/7

1/7

Source: Energy Information Administration; World Bank.

Note: Last observation is May 15, 2020.
Return to Read Me
 Date
1/7/2000
1/14/2000
1/21/2000
1/28/2000
2/4/2000
2/11/2000
2/18/2000
2/25/2000
3/3/2000
3/10/2000
3/17/2000
3/24/2000
3/31/2000
4/7/2000
4/14/2000
4/21/2000
4/28/2000
5/5/2000
5/12/2000
5/19/2000
5/26/2000
6/2/2000
6/9/2000
6/16/2000
6/23/2000
1/7

1/7

1/7

1/7

1/7
1/7

6/30/2000
7/7/2000
7/14/2000
7/21/2000
7/28/2000
8/4/2000
8/11/2000
8/18/2000
8/25/2000
9/1/2000
9/8/2000
 9/15/2000
9/22/2000
9/29/2000
10/6/2000
10/13/2000
10/20/2000
10/27/2000
11/3/2000
11/10/2000
11/17/2000
11/24/2000
12/1/2000
12/8/2000
12/15/2000
12/22/2000
12/29/2000
1/5/2001
1/12/2001
1/19/2001
1/26/2001
2/2/2001
2/9/2001
2/16/2001
2/23/2001
3/2/2001
3/9/2001
3/16/2001
3/23/2001
3/30/2001
4/6/2001
4/13/2001
4/20/2001
4/27/2001
5/4/2001
5/11/2001
5/18/2001
5/25/2001
6/1/2001
6/8/2001
 6/15/2001
6/22/2001
6/29/2001
7/6/2001
7/13/2001
7/20/2001
7/27/2001
8/3/2001
8/10/2001
8/17/2001
8/24/2001
8/31/2001
9/7/2001
9/14/2001
9/21/2001
9/28/2001
10/5/2001
10/12/2001
10/19/2001
10/26/2001
11/2/2001
11/9/2001
11/16/2001
11/23/2001
11/30/2001
12/7/2001
12/14/2001
12/21/2001
12/28/2001
1/4/2002
1/11/2002
1/18/2002
1/25/2002
2/1/2002
2/8/2002
2/15/2002
2/22/2002
3/1/2002
3/8/2002
 3/15/2002
3/22/2002
3/29/2002
4/5/2002
4/12/2002
4/19/2002
4/26/2002
5/3/2002
5/10/2002
5/17/2002
5/24/2002
5/31/2002
6/7/2002
6/14/2002
6/21/2002
6/28/2002
7/5/2002
7/12/2002
7/19/2002
7/26/2002
8/2/2002
8/9/2002
8/16/2002
8/23/2002
8/30/2002
9/6/2002
9/13/2002
9/20/2002
9/27/2002
10/4/2002
10/11/2002
10/18/2002
10/25/2002
11/1/2002
11/8/2002
11/15/2002
11/22/2002
11/29/2002
12/6/2002
12/13/2002
12/20/2002
12/27/2002
1/3/2003
1/10/2003
1/17/2003
1/24/2003
1/31/2003
2/7/2003
2/14/2003
2/21/2003
2/28/2003
3/7/2003
3/14/2003
3/21/2003
3/28/2003
4/4/2003
4/11/2003
4/18/2003
4/25/2003
5/2/2003
5/9/2003
5/16/2003
5/23/2003
5/30/2003
6/6/2003
6/13/2003
6/20/2003
6/27/2003
7/4/2003
7/11/2003
7/18/2003
7/25/2003
8/1/2003
8/8/2003
8/15/2003
8/22/2003
8/29/2003
9/5/2003
 9/12/2003
9/19/2003
9/26/2003
10/3/2003
10/10/2003
10/17/2003
10/24/2003
10/31/2003
11/7/2003
11/14/2003
11/21/2003
11/28/2003
12/5/2003
12/12/2003
12/19/2003
12/26/2003
1/2/2004
1/9/2004
1/16/2004
1/23/2004
1/30/2004
2/6/2004
2/13/2004
2/20/2004
2/27/2004
3/5/2004
3/12/2004
3/19/2004
3/26/2004
4/2/2004
4/9/2004
4/16/2004
4/23/2004
4/30/2004
5/7/2004
5/14/2004
5/21/2004
5/28/2004
6/4/2004
 6/11/2004
6/18/2004
6/25/2004
7/2/2004
7/9/2004
7/16/2004
7/23/2004
7/30/2004
8/6/2004
8/13/2004
8/20/2004
8/27/2004
9/3/2004
9/10/2004
9/17/2004
9/24/2004
10/1/2004
10/8/2004
10/15/2004
10/22/2004
10/29/2004
11/5/2004
11/12/2004
11/19/2004
11/26/2004
12/3/2004
12/10/2004
12/17/2004
12/24/2004
12/31/2004
1/7/2005
1/14/2005
1/21/2005
1/28/2005
2/4/2005
2/11/2005
2/18/2005
2/25/2005
3/4/2005
 3/11/2005
3/18/2005
3/25/2005
4/1/2005
4/8/2005
4/15/2005
4/22/2005
4/29/2005
5/6/2005
5/13/2005
5/20/2005
5/27/2005
6/3/2005
6/10/2005
6/17/2005
6/24/2005
7/1/2005
7/8/2005
7/15/2005
7/22/2005
7/29/2005
8/5/2005
8/12/2005
8/19/2005
8/26/2005
9/2/2005
9/9/2005
9/16/2005
9/23/2005
9/30/2005
10/7/2005
10/14/2005
10/21/2005
10/28/2005
11/4/2005
11/11/2005
11/18/2005
11/25/2005
12/2/2005
 12/9/2005
12/16/2005
12/23/2005
12/30/2005
1/6/2006
1/13/2006
1/20/2006
1/27/2006
2/3/2006
2/10/2006
2/17/2006
2/24/2006
3/3/2006
3/10/2006
3/17/2006
3/24/2006
3/31/2006
4/7/2006
4/14/2006
4/21/2006
4/28/2006
5/5/2006
5/12/2006
5/19/2006
5/26/2006
6/2/2006
6/9/2006
6/16/2006
6/23/2006
6/30/2006
7/7/2006
7/14/2006
7/21/2006
7/28/2006
8/4/2006
8/11/2006
8/18/2006
8/25/2006
9/1/2006
 9/8/2006
9/15/2006
9/22/2006
9/29/2006
10/6/2006
10/13/2006
10/20/2006
10/27/2006
11/3/2006
11/10/2006
11/17/2006
11/24/2006
12/1/2006
12/8/2006
12/15/2006
12/22/2006
12/29/2006
1/5/2007
1/12/2007
1/19/2007
1/26/2007
2/2/2007
2/9/2007
2/16/2007
2/23/2007
3/2/2007
3/9/2007
3/16/2007
3/23/2007
3/30/2007
4/6/2007
4/13/2007
4/20/2007
4/27/2007
5/4/2007
5/11/2007
5/18/2007
5/25/2007
6/1/2007
 6/8/2007
6/15/2007
6/22/2007
6/29/2007
7/6/2007
7/13/2007
7/20/2007
7/27/2007
8/3/2007
8/10/2007
8/17/2007
8/24/2007
8/31/2007
9/7/2007
9/14/2007
9/21/2007
9/28/2007
10/5/2007
10/12/2007
10/19/2007
10/26/2007
11/2/2007
11/9/2007
11/16/2007
11/23/2007
11/30/2007
12/7/2007
12/14/2007
12/21/2007
12/28/2007
1/4/2008
1/11/2008
1/18/2008
1/25/2008
2/1/2008
2/8/2008
2/15/2008
2/22/2008
2/29/2008
 3/7/2008
3/14/2008
3/21/2008
3/28/2008
4/4/2008
4/11/2008
4/18/2008
4/25/2008
5/2/2008
5/9/2008
5/16/2008
5/23/2008
5/30/2008
6/6/2008
6/13/2008
6/20/2008
6/27/2008
7/4/2008
7/11/2008
7/18/2008
7/25/2008
8/1/2008
8/8/2008
8/15/2008
8/22/2008
8/29/2008
9/5/2008
9/12/2008
9/19/2008
9/26/2008
10/3/2008
10/10/2008
10/17/2008
10/24/2008
10/31/2008
11/7/2008
11/14/2008
11/21/2008
11/28/2008
 12/5/2008
12/12/2008
12/19/2008
12/26/2008
1/2/2009
1/9/2009
1/16/2009
1/23/2009
1/30/2009
2/6/2009
2/13/2009
2/20/2009
2/27/2009
3/6/2009
3/13/2009
3/20/2009
3/27/2009
4/3/2009
4/10/2009
4/17/2009
4/24/2009
5/1/2009
5/8/2009
5/15/2009
5/22/2009
5/29/2009
6/5/2009
6/12/2009
6/19/2009
6/26/2009
7/3/2009
7/10/2009
7/17/2009
7/24/2009
7/31/2009
8/7/2009
8/14/2009
8/21/2009
8/28/2009
 9/4/2009
9/11/2009
9/18/2009
9/25/2009
10/2/2009
10/9/2009
10/16/2009
10/23/2009
10/30/2009
11/6/2009
11/13/2009
11/20/2009
11/27/2009
12/4/2009
12/11/2009
12/18/2009
12/25/2009
1/1/2010
1/8/2010
1/15/2010
1/22/2010
1/29/2010
2/5/2010
2/12/2010
2/19/2010
2/26/2010
3/5/2010
3/12/2010
3/19/2010
3/26/2010
4/2/2010
4/9/2010
4/16/2010
4/23/2010
4/30/2010
5/7/2010
5/14/2010
5/21/2010
5/28/2010
 6/4/2010
6/11/2010
6/18/2010
6/25/2010
7/2/2010
7/9/2010
7/16/2010
7/23/2010
7/30/2010
8/6/2010
8/13/2010
8/20/2010
8/27/2010
9/3/2010
9/10/2010
9/17/2010
9/24/2010
10/1/2010
10/8/2010
10/15/2010
10/22/2010
10/29/2010
11/5/2010
11/12/2010
11/19/2010
11/26/2010
12/3/2010
12/10/2010
12/17/2010
12/24/2010
12/31/2010
1/7/2011
1/14/2011
1/21/2011
1/28/2011
2/4/2011
2/11/2011
2/18/2011
2/25/2011
 3/4/2011
3/11/2011
3/18/2011
3/25/2011
4/1/2011
4/8/2011
4/15/2011
4/22/2011
4/29/2011
5/6/2011
5/13/2011
5/20/2011
5/27/2011
6/3/2011
6/10/2011
6/17/2011
6/24/2011
7/1/2011
7/8/2011
7/15/2011
7/22/2011
7/29/2011
8/5/2011
8/12/2011
8/19/2011
8/26/2011
9/2/2011
9/9/2011
9/16/2011
9/23/2011
9/30/2011
10/7/2011
10/14/2011
10/21/2011
10/28/2011
11/4/2011
11/11/2011
11/18/2011
11/25/2011
 12/2/2011
12/9/2011
12/16/2011
12/23/2011
12/30/2011
1/6/2012
1/13/2012
1/20/2012
1/27/2012
2/3/2012
2/10/2012
2/17/2012
2/24/2012
3/2/2012
3/9/2012
3/16/2012
3/23/2012
3/30/2012
4/6/2012
4/13/2012
4/20/2012
4/27/2012
5/4/2012
5/11/2012
5/18/2012
5/25/2012
6/1/2012
6/8/2012
6/15/2012
6/22/2012
6/29/2012
7/6/2012
7/13/2012
7/20/2012
7/27/2012
8/3/2012
8/10/2012
8/17/2012
8/24/2012
 8/31/2012
9/7/2012
9/14/2012
9/21/2012
9/28/2012
10/5/2012
10/12/2012
10/19/2012
10/26/2012
11/2/2012
11/9/2012
11/16/2012
11/23/2012
11/30/2012
12/7/2012
12/14/2012
12/21/2012
12/28/2012
1/4/2013
1/11/2013
1/18/2013
1/25/2013
2/1/2013
2/8/2013
2/15/2013
2/22/2013
3/1/2013
3/8/2013
3/15/2013
3/22/2013
3/29/2013
4/5/2013
4/12/2013
4/19/2013
4/26/2013
5/3/2013
5/10/2013
5/17/2013
5/24/2013
 5/31/2013
6/7/2013
6/14/2013
6/21/2013
6/28/2013
7/5/2013
7/12/2013
7/19/2013
7/26/2013
8/2/2013
8/9/2013
8/16/2013
8/23/2013
8/30/2013
9/6/2013
9/13/2013
9/20/2013
9/27/2013
10/4/2013
10/11/2013
10/18/2013
10/25/2013
11/1/2013
11/8/2013
11/15/2013
11/22/2013
11/29/2013
12/6/2013
12/13/2013
12/20/2013
12/27/2013
1/3/2014
1/10/2014
1/17/2014
1/24/2014
1/31/2014
2/7/2014
2/14/2014
2/21/2014
 2/28/2014
3/7/2014
3/14/2014
3/21/2014
3/28/2014
4/4/2014
4/11/2014
4/18/2014
4/25/2014
5/2/2014
5/9/2014
5/16/2014
5/23/2014
5/30/2014
6/6/2014
6/13/2014
6/20/2014
6/27/2014
7/4/2014
7/11/2014
7/18/2014
7/25/2014
8/1/2014
8/8/2014
8/15/2014
8/22/2014
8/29/2014
9/5/2014
9/12/2014
9/19/2014
9/26/2014
10/3/2014
10/10/2014
10/17/2014
10/24/2014
10/31/2014
11/7/2014
11/14/2014
11/21/2014
11/28/2014
12/5/2014
12/12/2014
12/19/2014
12/26/2014
1/2/2015
1/9/2015
1/16/2015
1/23/2015
1/30/2015
2/6/2015
2/13/2015
2/20/2015
2/27/2015
3/6/2015
3/13/2015
3/20/2015
3/27/2015
4/3/2015
4/10/2015
4/17/2015
4/24/2015
5/1/2015
5/8/2015
5/15/2015
5/22/2015
5/29/2015
6/5/2015
6/12/2015
6/19/2015
6/26/2015
7/3/2015
7/10/2015
7/17/2015
7/24/2015
7/31/2015
8/7/2015
8/14/2015
8/21/2015
 8/28/2015
9/4/2015
9/11/2015
9/18/2015
9/25/2015
10/2/2015
10/9/2015
10/16/2015
10/23/2015
10/30/2015
11/6/2015
11/13/2015
11/20/2015
11/27/2015
12/4/2015
12/11/2015
12/18/2015
12/25/2015
1/1/2016
1/8/2016
1/15/2016
1/22/2016
1/29/2016
2/5/2016
2/12/2016
2/19/2016
2/26/2016
3/4/2016
3/11/2016
3/18/2016
3/25/2016
4/1/2016
4/8/2016
4/15/2016
4/22/2016
4/29/2016
5/6/2016
5/13/2016
5/20/2016
 5/27/2016
6/3/2016
6/10/2016
6/17/2016
6/24/2016
7/1/2016
7/8/2016
7/15/2016
7/22/2016
7/29/2016
8/5/2016
8/12/2016
8/19/2016
8/26/2016
9/2/2016
9/9/2016
9/16/2016
9/23/2016
9/30/2016
10/7/2016
10/14/2016
10/21/2016
10/28/2016
11/4/2016
11/11/2016
11/18/2016
11/25/2016
12/2/2016
12/9/2016
12/16/2016
12/23/2016
12/30/2016
1/6/2017
1/13/2017
1/20/2017
1/27/2017
2/3/2017
2/10/2017
2/17/2017
 2/24/2017
3/3/2017
3/10/2017
3/17/2017
3/24/2017
3/31/2017
4/7/2017
4/14/2017
4/21/2017
4/28/2017
5/5/2017
5/12/2017
5/19/2017
5/26/2017
6/2/2017
6/9/2017
6/16/2017
6/23/2017
6/30/2017
7/7/2017
7/14/2017
7/21/2017
7/28/2017
8/4/2017
8/11/2017
8/18/2017
8/25/2017
9/1/2017
9/8/2017
9/15/2017
9/22/2017
9/29/2017
10/6/2017
10/13/2017
10/20/2017
10/27/2017
11/3/2017
11/10/2017
11/17/2017
11/24/2017
12/1/2017
12/8/2017
12/15/2017
12/22/2017
12/29/2017
1/5/2018
1/12/2018
1/19/2018
1/26/2018
2/2/2018
2/9/2018
2/16/2018
2/23/2018
3/2/2018
3/9/2018
3/16/2018
3/23/2018
3/30/2018
4/6/2018
4/13/2018
4/20/2018
4/27/2018
5/4/2018
5/11/2018
5/18/2018
5/25/2018
6/1/2018
6/8/2018
6/15/2018
6/22/2018
6/29/2018
7/6/2018
7/13/2018
7/20/2018
7/27/2018
8/3/2018
8/10/2018
8/17/2018
 8/24/2018
8/31/2018
9/7/2018
9/14/2018
9/21/2018
9/28/2018
10/5/2018
10/12/2018
10/19/2018
10/26/2018
11/2/2018
11/9/2018
11/16/2018
11/23/2018
11/30/2018
12/7/2018
12/14/2018
12/21/2018
12/28/2018
1/4/2019
1/11/2019
1/18/2019
1/25/2019
2/1/2019
2/8/2019
2/15/2019
2/22/2019
3/1/2019
3/8/2019
3/15/2019
3/22/2019
3/29/2019
4/5/2019
4/12/2019
4/19/2019
4/26/2019
5/3/2019
5/10/2019
5/17/2019
 5/24/2019
5/31/2019
6/7/2019
6/14/2019
6/21/2019
6/28/2019
7/5/2019
7/12/2019
7/19/2019
7/26/2019
8/2/2019
8/9/2019
8/16/2019
8/23/2019
8/30/2019
9/6/2019
9/13/2019
9/20/2019
9/27/2019
10/4/2019
10/11/2019
10/18/2019
10/25/2019
11/1/2019
11/8/2019
11/15/2019
11/22/2019
11/29/2019
12/6/2019
12/13/2019
12/20/2019
12/27/2019
1/3/2020
1/10/2020
1/17/2020
1/24/2020
1/31/2020
2/7/2020
2/14/2020
2/21/2020
2/28/2020
3/6/2020
3/13/2020
3/20/2020
3/27/2020
4/3/2020
4/10/2020
4/17/2020
4/24/2020
5/1/2020
5/8/2020
5/15/2020
Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Thousand Barrels
1488583
1486494
1478838
1465376
1460659
1453846
1448711
1447866
1455792
1449330
1450142
1449226
1452797
1458485
1461306
1469464
1475455
1481619
1486201
1491647
1492433
1500118
1503981
1499476
1504672
1505255
1512449
1512278
1518438
1509933
1512640
1513535
1514500
1513820
1518874
1517360
1510299
1510336
1514777
1519530
1508537
1507820
1499492
1494974
1496644
1492678
1486540
1490938
1475782
1474945
1466328
1455285
1451739
1447486
1449523
1447034
1449312
1449080
1441474
1444333
1439975
1444957
1443303
1451420
1449383
1453240
1460708
1466044
1484672
1488429
1496833
1502849
1511716
1526704
1527448
1539338
1542174
1539345
1540774
1548009
1548692
1545694
1544703
1538226
1531390
1530148
1528057
1533856
1534940
1548864
1554718
1555447
1552721
1554313
1553159
1552371
1551760
1549631
1551512
1560190
1555809
1551458
1545131
1541966
1549019
1549845
1553004
1555400
1554738
1557485
1551166
1547217
1544356
1543249
1543446
1534277
1540762
1543675
1538942
1545733
1553361
1556812
1558369
1567094
1571761
1578974
1582023
1587609
1587561
1590382
1588056
1593567
1591871
1590325
1587267
1575294
1577109
1577004
1571585
1575971
1571710
1570615
1563412
1552148
1551322
1554023
1551234
1556305
1552901
1556053
1553298
1555425
1562506
1558443
1553535
1537685
1535938
1534369
1528219
1518477
1501634
1495579
1488845
1481159
1478222
1467509
1464857
1469534
1475000
1467502
1470544
1482159
1488899
1488670
1488983
1497064
1498177
1508142
1511930
1519137
1518318
1515834
1517820
1523751
1522258
1525604
1532960
1528493
1529393
1529482
1535808
1541629
1554221
1563690
1569404
1573832
1574795
1576109
1581262
1579507
1575764
1575204
1568503
1570090
1566844
1555723
1553645
1549218
1553764
1551243
1550523
1539433
1537233
1527394
1527377
1524556
1528515
1536272
1538711
1545870
1553030
1548976
1544678
1550540
1559486
1568612
1572945
1576777
1578088
1587696
1592320
1596925
1601573
1606689
1612723
1613625
1615333
1623670
1626885
1626116
1628120
1630371
1630758
1631622
1628294
1615794
1616930
1616419
1614641
1611370
1613277
1617279
1620717
1619729
1621594
1627926
1635038
1632555
1632276
1625471
1623433
1620089
1623850
1622742
1620615
1616267
1615601
1615531
1616405
1618260
1614761
1616675
1623769
1627495
1634534
1634370
1641987
1647473
1654989
1663587
1668028
1675839
1676450
1680271
1683798
1693416
1695779
1697442
1700370
1698618
1703713
1707824
1705336
1706247
1708973
1694100
1688678
1692778
1694325
1682180
1672429
1676865
1675040
1674684
1685532
1684684
1685992
1688865
1695206
1696494
1688125
1680779
1678115
1679395
1684625
1688697
1689753
1692744
1696907
1695256
1691606
1692937
1689899
1684805
1682003
1677982
1675363
1669952
1672972
1675665
1681573
1683906
1687513
1695632
1702119
1708780
1716630
1717186
1717454
1714862
1721504
1724029
1729169
1727124
1728282
1732544
1736554
1738407
1742849
1747111
1756269
1760297
1760630
1754844
1743769
1740668
1733971
1725042
1728917
1721370
1717000
1709531
1701601
1694233
1696033
1702671
1711726
1713186
1713489
1702993
1691701
1680640
1671763
1655871
1653306
1650396
1650791
1653439
1653410
1653888
1653879
1654328
1660763
1667816
1674276
1676311
1680364
1681031
1690913
1691475
1699716
1702157
1703406
1708146
1707404
1707282
1702775
1703286
1701127
1695710
1692514
1690125
1695938
1697152
1696632
1699669
1692369
1691376
1690422
1691711
1684926
1683143
1679988
1678536
1670282
1659725
1653240
1645573
1650706
1652935
1651982
1661448
1662319
1658612
1661498
1657174
1664093
1661864
1655330
1657077
1649037
1641673
1642580
1651619
1657102
1662804
1663044
1653940
1655015
1655398
1656481
1662057
1665274
1662264
1669865
1671944
1674597
1677642
1672580
1680862
1683122
1679508
1664309
1652333
1633043
1632148
1649821
1661304
1670572
1677228
1682384
1683427
1686203
1695896
1695510
1702131
1699397
1697806
1693666
1700699
1709055
1721019
1725286
1727432
1730256
1724167
1721451
1723216
1726400
1731252
1735935
1744022
1748569
1757997
1770633
1777282
1787685
1787294
1787269
1790757
1805918
1804190
1803228
1809037
1814063
1819395
1821578
1823434
1829017
1826259
1827603
1814805
1811664
1807201
1802182
1799408
1807956
1812565
1816158
1810356
1806214
1804606
1796213
1797182
1793022
1792146
1798088
1794359
1781679
1767534
1759407
1754936
1758478
1756898
1751163
1751934
1753694
1751277
1752720
1752368
1747088
1744645
1744995
1748201
1755527
1755240
1765982
1778874
1788665
1792060
1793258
1799092
1796826
1796533
1800968
1803647
1807220
1807498
1810684
1815813
1824809
1830911
1831034
1836371
1845290
1849326
1849605
1846687
1849580
1844639
1844479
1839968
1837944
1838571
1833111
1821024
1811920
1811662
1811618
1805989
1790354
1784349
1775190
1768864
1769567
1771930
1774326
1779865
1782974
1774588
1762502
1755973
1749560
1744438
1743540
1746869
1746775
1741824
1735085
1737994
1745515
1751789
1751723
1758484
1765721
1767412
1766790
1769874
1769551
1770044
1774358
1778156
1787318
1785372
1774740
1773372
1772545
1772165
1762950
1757329
1752077
1753203
1748571
1747063
1736136
1736836
1738642
1723081
1714379
1710481
1718142
1727473
1729477
1711308
1714409
1717810
1724115
1722052
1717777
1725831
1729988
1726018
1729270
1729808
1728407
1723964
1725508
1731828
1744194
1740041
1737816
1737797
1739703
1742874
1745746
1746803
1752299
1757432
1758588
1769669
1772266
1768191
1770986
1772416
1782546
1775322
1774232
1769650
1766645
1771307
1761695
1763465
1774869
1772202
1769771
1765245
1762571
1766541
1766438
1766937
1762209
1755999
1754572
1760504
1765717
1763772
1766774
1756751
1767275
1771026
1768389
1770555
1770698
1763497
1762248
1756353
1753830
1748248
1746792
1744881
1744770
1750256
1752884
1750944
1763299
1766910
1769562
1773790
1783539
1782363
1795275
1802037
1811353
1796688
1789589
1789379
1787097
1788713
1789355
1787500
1784680
1786847
1788612
1792300
1786223
1787704
1792736
1794390
1794279
1797978
1792187
1783402
1777477
1765743
1764104
1757017
1751875
1739278
1726572
1719954
1721744
1711484
1707525
1703756
1698443
1700277
1697777
1697279
1699461
1697592
1697080
1702538
1701267
1706406
1720244
1731728
1738685
1745356
1747460
1748988
1752183
1760978
1767029
1773073
1778246
1777806
1782338
1783564
1788801
1788308
1780200
1781719
1781037
1782459
1783936
1793690
1798592
1799516
1793697
1797403
1798447
1802839
1794368
1791939
1785657
1785693
1781017
1779879
1787168
1788353
1794787
1797611
1802762
1812743
1814846
1816813
1829056
1830719
1829856
1832076
1834373
1837481
1844467
1854943
1858147
1873015
1880257
1889403
1896936
1903149
1897593
1895417
1898236
1906163
1906215
1909554
1903322
1914055
1925162
1928519
1932014
1932139
1932126
1938143
1939095
1942040
1947659
1950933
1959378
1956348
1959836
1962368
1965728
1967191
1963787
1961884
1964247
1964487
1966831
1968966
1965399
1970217
1965058
1964893
1973171
1983197
1989726
1988629
1998211
1998634
2002194
1997133
2007255
2006862
2008491
2015323
2016686
2017130
2023823
2023415
2028801
2030958
2029132
2028360
2027485
2024853
2029183
2028740
2034200
2033037
2036373
2043569
2046272
2049189
2051400
2054101
2055744
2062442
2066939
2053076
2059040
2052972
2052596
2010784
2036318
2032496
2023346
2032109
2025194
2032087
2031786
2031843
2033202
2031086
2019205
2006115
2012342
2025973
2024189
2033150
2038712
2040418
2051885
2041138
2041770
2039279
2030556
2031260
2026546
2027112
2021860
2019859
2025813
2025370
2021073
2024603
2020760
2014636
2028690
2035093
2032387
2031819
2017931
2010974
2000699
1991551
1992441
1987715
1980549
1980549
1979414
1985589
1985793
1977820
1972014
1964757
1962157
1952868
1940557
1934126
1924342
1926344
1924595
1914692
1909701
1907485
1893603
1884793
1886485
1881036
1867706
1864830
1866828
1871641
1869161
1860495
1864540
1864792
1860159
1853535
1852047
1848203
1854212
1843815
1844307
1849221
1846800
1844652
1850807
1851806
1866968
1865266
1865481
1861080
1864596
1857398
1863218
1853305
1863839
1867028
1884362
1881676
1879910
1883790
1893924
1894528
1898965
1906595
1916662
1918213
1908675
1900307
1904400
1901387
1900798
1900684
1890999
1885032
1874063
1871863
1886223
1899466
1904101
1910558
1905639
1902367
1908515
1905706
1887669
1887233
1877265
1864772
1864965
1871965
1876163
1878722
1887742
1900246
1897584
1910620
1926356
1925061
1947861
1957132
1956659
1944746
1947311
1943744
1955723
1949275
1939201
1949593
1952156
1956040
1944745
1939751
1936711
1937486
1938057
1937129
1928598
1925506
1915434
1912184
1915746
1908337
1901096
1899719
1893656
1910619
1909607
1899160
1896039
1910701
1925131
1923437
1924716
1924005
1923009
1921936
1919976
1908160
1900480
1892950
1895253
1916252
1949299
1976540
2002071
2013630
2033262
2034651
2041568
cts (Thousand Barrels)
Figure 4.2.A. Change in transport demand
Percent March
0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100
1 2

Source: Metropolitan Transportation Authority; Ministry of Transport China; World Bank.

Note: "NYC subway ridership" is the sum of entries into each station in New York's Metropo
network, which serves a population of 15.3 million people across a 5,000-square-mile trave
inclding Long Island, southeastern New York State, and Connecticut."China passenger jour
journeys in China.
Return to Read Me
 March April

China; World Bank.

in New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority
5,000-square-mile travel area surrounding New York City
t."China passenger journeys" include all daily passenger
 March April
NYC subway ridership -32.7 -93.2
China passenger journeys -63.8 -58.6
Figure 4.2.B. Container shipping throughput volume growth

Percent
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17

Source: Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics; World Bank.

Note: Year-on-year growth. Last observation is March 2020.
Return to Read Me
 volume growth
Date
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
4 Jan-17 Jan-20 Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
 Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Percent
9.0
4.9
10.1
6.7
7.4
7.4
6.6
6.5
4.3
3.8
-3.0
-7.8
-16.9
-12.3
-13.1
-15.6
-14.2
-14.1
-12.7
-12.0
-9.2
-7.8
-1.2
5.2
18.5
12.9
13.6
18.3
18.4
19.2
19.1
19.6
14.3
11.6
13.4
9.2
 9.7
7.3
7.6
8.6
8.0
6.4
6.7
4.7
7.2
8.4
2.7
7.1
4.0
4.7
5.6
3.2
3.8
3.8
2.3
1.9
6.4
2.2
4.5
2.5
5.4
1.3
2.2
1.8
1.6
1.5
2.7
3.8
-0.4
2.2
3.0
1.8
0.2
4.8
4.0
 5.6
4.0
5.5
4.3
5.1
4.8
6.7
4.5
4.0
4.2
3.0
2.9
0.5
0.8
0.1
0.3
-1.5
-2.1
-2.7
-1.6
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-2.0
0.2
1.1
1.5
1.3
2.2
3.2
3.1
4.8
5.5
4.3
6.4
8.2
7.0
7.0
7.1
 7.2
7.9
8.3
7.4
6.6
5.8
7.6
6.2
2.4
3.8
5.8
3.6
4.6
3.8
2.0
5.1
3.2
4.0
3.1
0.4
4.8
3.9
1.3
2.9
3.2
2.5
3.4
0.6
0.1
-2.1
-1.2
-7.0
-4.0
Figure 4.2.C. Final oil consumption, by country and sector
Percent
40

30 Other Transport

20

10

0
China
United St...

Other ...

Source: International Energy Agency; World Bank.

Note: Percent of global oil consumption.
Return to Read Me
try and sector

Transport
Other

ort
non-OECD
Other ...

Other
 Other
United States China Other OECD non-OECD
14.3 7.0 14.8 18.6
4.4 5.9 10.4 14.0
Figure 4.2.D. Global oil demand growth

Percent
5
0
-5
-10
Rest of World China
-15
-20
-25

Source: International Energy Agency; World Bank.

Note: Shaded area shows IEA estimates for year-on-year demand growth in 2020Q2.
Return to Read Me
 2018

2019

2020

China

growth in 2020Q2.
China Rest of World
0.4 1.6
0.2 0.3
0.9 0.3
0.5 -0.1
0.3 0.1
0.8 -0.2
0.7 0.1
1.0 0.5
-1.4 -4.1
-1.1 -19.0 100
Figure 4.2.E. Impact of a 1 percentage point growth decline
Percentage points
0

-10

-20
On 1 Year On 1 Year On
Impact Impact Impa
United States China Eu
Source: World Bank.
Note: Based on a Bayesian vector autoregressive estimation. Cumulative response to a 1-p
oil prices on impact or after four quarters. Orange whiskers reflect the 16th-84th percentile
model includes U.S. growth, Euro Area growth, 10-year U.S. government bond interest rate
China’s growth, oil price, and commodity-importing or commodity-exporting EMDE growth o
The model has four lags. Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 pri
rates.
oil prices on impact or after four quarters. Orange whiskers reflect the 16th-84th percentile
model includes U.S. growth, Euro Area growth, 10-year U.S. government bond interest rate
China’s growth, oil price, and commodity-importing or commodity-exporting EMDE growth o
The model has four lags. Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 pri
rates.
Return to Read Me
 growth decline in major economies on oil prices

Year On 1 Year
Impact
a Euro Area

lative response to a 1-percentage point decline on

he 16th-84th percentile confidence bands. The
ment bond interest rate, VIX volatility index,
xporting EMDE growth over 2000Q1 to 2019Q2.
GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exchange
United States On Impact -9.6 3.8 3.4
1 Year -12.1 10.5 9.5
China On Impact -3.5 3.3 3.2
1 Year -10.1 5.1 4.8
Euro Area On Impact -3.3 4.5 5.1
1 Year -4.9 11.2 11.0
Figure 4.2.F. Contribution to largest oil price declines since

Percentage points
0

-20

-40

-60

-80
Demand Supply
-100
Dec Apr July Jan Apr Nov
2008 2020 1986 2015 1991 200
Source: International Energy Agency; World Bank.
Note: Chart shows the contribution to explained six-month log changes (in percent) in oil pr
on structural vector autoregression estimation (Annex 4.1). For each of the seven episodes
deepest six-month oil price plunge is shown (consecutive months are not shown). The gap
decline and the contributions of demand and supply represents speculative demand factor.
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e declines since 1970

Dec
2008
Apr
2020
July
1986
Jan
2015
Apr
1991
Nov
2001
Mar
1998

d Supply Total

Apr Nov Mar

1991 2001 1998
ges (in percent) in oil prices. Decomposition based
h of the seven episodes, only the month with the
e not shown). The gap between the total price
culative demand factor.
 Total Supply Demand

2008M12 -82.7 -2.2 -68.1

2020M04 -76.3 -16.7 -50.2

1986M07 -67.4 -50.3 -11.7

2015M01 -62.7 -33.5 -18.2

1991M04 -51.6 -22.6 -22.5

2001M11 -29.1 -1.6 -25.4

1998M03 -23.7 -13.5 -11.6

Figure 4.3.A. Oil price
Index, 100=t Previous rec
120 Min
September
100

80

60

40

20
tt t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
12345678911111111112222222222333333333344444444
Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.
Note: The y-axis is a price index, with “100=t” indicating prices at the start of the events. Th
passage of time (in days). Start dates for the two events are the first trading day before a m
September 10, 2001 for 9/11; and January 22, 2020 for COVID-19. Swath shows the four g
1981-82, 1990-91, and 2008-09. For the first two recessions, daily data were unavailable, s
were taken (assuming each month lasts 22 working days).
Return to Read Me
 revious recessions t
t+1
Min t+2
t+3
eptember 11,2001 t+4
t+5
t+6
t+7
t+8
t+9
t+10
t+11
t+12
t+13
t+14
t+15
t+16
t+17
t+18
t+19
t+20
t+21
t+22
t+23
ttttttttttttttttttttttttttt t+24
t+25
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ t+26
t+27
3333333444444444455555555556 t+28
t+29
t+30
t+31
e start of the events. The x-axis shows the
trading day before a major event occurred: t+32
Swath shows the four global recessions: 1974-75, t+33
ata were unavailable, so monthly percent changes t+34
t+35
t+36
t+37
t+38
t+39
t+40
t+41
t+42
t+43
t+44
t+45
t+46
t+47
t+48
t+49
t+50
t+51
t+52
t+53
t+54
t+55
t+56
t+57
t+58
t+59
t+60
Max Min Previous recessions 11-Sep-01 Covid-19
100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 94.7 5.3 105.9 99.2
100.0 88.5 11.5 102.1 98.4
100.0 90.1 9.9 102.4 98.5
100.0 93.1 6.9 107.2 96.2
102.1 82.9 19.2 103.4 95.6
108.7 81.3 27.4 99.3 91.1
105.6 82.4 23.2 95.9 90.2
105.0 84.1 20.9 94.4 92.4
107.2 81.9 25.3 92.7 92.2
106.1 78.6 27.5 80.2 91.3
100.0 83.1 16.9 81.5 89.6
100.6 84.0 16.6 83.8 90.5
100.0 77.8 22.2 83.0 93.2
100.0 79.1 20.9 84.7 93.9
100.0 80.4 19.6 83.4 95.3
100.0 79.1 20.9 80.3 95.3
100.0 78.2 21.8 78.4 95.6
100.0 81.2 18.8 80.7 97.9
100.0 80.9 19.1 78.8 98.5
100.0 75.9 24.1 78.6 97.4
100.0 79.4 20.6 79.7 94.3
100.0 76.4 23.6 80.2 91.2
97.7 72.6 25.1 81.8 89.0
97.7 68.0 29.7 79.2 86.5
97.7 71.3 26.4 79.0 83.0
97.7 73.8 23.9 79.1 85.9
97.7 71.4 26.2 76.5 86.3
97.7 66.1 31.6 75.1 85.3
97.7 67.6 30.1 77.8 83.5
97.7 63.6 34.1 76.7 75.4
97.7 62.9 34.8 76.3 57.0
97.7 61.8 35.9 77.4 62.3
97.7 67.1 30.6 76.5 59.9
97.7 65.3 32.4 76.6 56.4
97.7 66.9 30.7 76.9 57.1
97.7 59.7 38.0 76.2 51.2
97.7 55.2 42.5 74.2 48.5
97.7 57.5 40.2 71.5 39.4
97.7 58.9 38.8 72.0 46.8
97.7 58.8 38.9 70.8 43.0
97.7 60.5 37.1 69.5 41.3
97.7 57.1 40.6 70.4 41.1
97.7 53.7 44.0 73.9 40.4
97.7 53.3 44.4 77.9 42.6
86.2 55.6 30.6 74.3 40.4
86.2 53.6 32.6 75.8 37.3
86.2 53.1 33.0 68.3 37.6
86.2 53.0 33.2 64.4 39.2
86.2 49.3 36.9 64.7 47.7
86.2 50.4 35.7 65.6 54.4
86.2 55.3 30.9 68.3 51.5
86.2 51.6 34.6 68.2 48.3
86.2 55.3 30.9 72.5 50.5
86.2 54.4 31.7 70.2 47.2
86.2 54.8 31.3 66.9 47.2
86.2 49.2 37.0 69.3 47.2
86.2 46.6 39.6 68.1 43.3
86.2 46.6 39.6 67.1 41.4
86.2 43.3 42.8 69.7 41.5
86.2 40.7 45.4 71.8 37.5
Figure 4.3.B. Oil consumption growth around recessions

Percent Range Row 6

10
2020

-5

-10
1 2
Source: BP Statistical Review; International Energy Agency; World Bank.
Note: Dates of recessions are taken from Kose, Sugawara, and Terrones (2020). Four rece
75; 1981-82; 1990-91; and 2008-09. "Before" shows average annual growth rates in comm
three years prior to the recession. "During" shows average annual growth rates of recession
a global slowdown occured with similar negative growth rates in consumption; as such the "
1977-79.
Return to Read Me
d recessions

e Row 6 Average Average

Max
Min
Range
2020

rones (2020). Four recessions are included: 1974-

l growth rates in commodity consumption over the
rowth rates of recession years. Note that in 1980
sumption; as such the "Before" period covers
 Oil
Before During
3.7 -1.0
7.1 0.7
1.6 -2.9
5.6 0.7
-8.6
Figure 4.4.A. Global oil price

100=Pre-plunge peak
140
Mar-20 Dec-85
120 Sep-08 Jul-14
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2
Months
Source: World Bank.
Note: Horizontal axis shows months from pre-plunge peak in t=0. Plunges begin (t=1) in Ma
September 2008, December 2000, November 1997, November 1990 and December 1985.
that 100 = pre-plunge peak.
Return to Read Me
 Months
0
1
2
3
Dec-85 4
5
Jul-14 6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
4 16 18 20 22 24 25

unges begin (t=1) in March 2020, July 2014,

0 and December 1985. All oil prices scaled such
Mar-20 Dec-85 Sep-08 Jul-14 Dec-00 Nov-97
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
###
60.0 89.0 87.0 95.6 77.3 95.7
###
42.4 88.6 64.0 91.1 78.8 85.6
###
60.4 46.8 87.0 84.3 76.0
###
47.7 36.5 78.0 75.0 70.8
###
43.0 39.4 70.1 78.8 65.9
###
48.9 38.0 55.7 87.5 67.5
###
40.8 41.1 43.0 85.2 72.5
###
32.5 44.7 51.8 75.4 60.7
###
47.0 50.9 49.9 79.0 60.5
###
48.9 60.3 53.1 78.5 59.9
###
47.5 57.0 57.7 63.0 67.3
###
50.1 63.7 55.7 58.2 63.3
###
54.7 59.5 49.9 57.2 55.0
###
63.3 64.3 42.0 59.9 49.4
###
59.6 67.7 42.2 62.4 55.7
###
61.6 65.6 43.0 72.8 51.4
###
62.3 67.1 39.7 78.9 62.8
###
64.5 65.3 33.7 78.1 77.1
###
64.9 69.6 27.5 74.2 76.3
###
68.2 74.6 29.7 79.2 79.4
###
65.2 67.0 34.9 81.9 95.8
###
63.2 65.7 37.8 87.1 101.9
###
64.7 65.6 42.1 84.7 112.8
###
61.3 67.4 43.3 74.4 110.6
###
58.9 68.3 40.3 87.7 123.9
###
Figure 4.4.B. Global oil production

100=Pre-plunge peak
110

105

100

95
Dec-85 S
90
Jul-14 D
85 Nov-97 C
0 6 12 18 24
Months
Source: International Energy Agency; World Bank.
Note: Horizontal axis shows months from pre-plunge peak in t=0. Plunges begin (t=1) in Ma
September 2008, December 2000, November 1997, November 1990 and December 1985.
that 100 = pre-plunge peak.
Return to Read Me
ec-85 Sep-08
ul-14 Dec-00
ov-97 Column Y
24 30 36

unges begin (t=1) in March 2020, July 2014,

0 and December 1985. All oil prices scaled such
Months Dec-85 Sep-08 Jul-14 Dec-00 Nov-97
0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0###
6 100.3 98.1 103.7 96.1 101.5###
12 100.0 98.4 103.9 96.5 98.9
###
18 99.0 100.2 105.1 94.8 98.1
###
24 102.9 101.0 102.8 97.8 99.1
###
30 102.4 101.5 105.6 97.5 101.4###
36 109.1 101.2 104.3 100.5 104.7###
Figure 4.4.C. Global rig count

100=Pre-plunge peak
120
100
80
60
40
20 Dec-85 Sep-08
Dec-00 Nov-97
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2
Months
Source: Baker Hughes; World Bank.
Note: Horizontal axis shows months from pre-plunge peak in t=0. Plunges begin (t=1) in Ma
September 2008, December 2000, November 1997, November 1990 and December 1985.
that 100 = pre-plunge peak.
Return to Read Me
 Months
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
5 Sep-08 Jul-14 20
21

0 Nov-97 Mar-20 22
23
24

4 16 18 20 22 24

unges begin (t=1) in March 2020, July 2014,

0 and December 1985. All oil prices scaled such
Mar-20 Dec-85 Sep-08 Jul-14 Dec-00 Nov-97
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
###
92.4 101.9 101.0 104.7 103.9 100.3
###
98.5 99.9 105.7 111.5 104.2
###
88.0 97.9 106.2 114.1 103.1
###
75.5 91.4 106.2 109.5 103.0
###
60.4 84.4 106.5 101.7 95.7
###
54.6 78.1 103.6 104.5 81.8
###
52.1 65.7 96.1 109.6 81.4
###
49.9 58.3 86.7 110.1 84.6
###
51.4 56.3 74.2 109.6 79.3
###
51.4 56.4 65.8 106.9 77.6
###
53.6 59.0 61.7 101.7 76.1
###
55.1 59.8 62.0 94.3 70.7
###
60.1 62.5 62.9 90.0 71.0
###
59.9 64.5 64.6 94.7 70.4
###
53.8 68.4 63.0 92.7 70.3
###
53.2 71.2 60.6 84.9 66.8
###
50.2 78.7 59.4 75.0 60.1
###
50.3 84.6 57.2 77.9 52.0
###
52.9 81.7 54.9 83.5 52.7
###
57.1 76.0 51.1 85.6 60.6
###
61.0 78.1 45.0 84.8 62.2
###
65.8 81.2 41.3 86.3 65.9
###
67.5 86.1 40.8 85.4 68.7
###
69.3 88.8 40.8 88.1 71.7
###
Figure 4.4.D. Oil demand growth

100=Pre-plunge peak
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95 Dec-85
94
-1 0 1 2
Years
Source: International Energy Agency; World Bank.
Note: Horizontal axis shows years from pre-plunge peak in t=0. Plunges begin (t=1) in Marc
September 2008, December 2000, November 1997, November 1990 and December 1985.
that 100 = pre-plunge peak. Refers to annual growth in refined petroleum consumption, sca
plunge growth (1989, 1996, 1999, 2007, 2013).
Return to Read Me
 Years
Dec-85
Sep-08
Jul-14
Dec-00
Nov-90
Nov-97

c-85 Sep-08
2 3

nges begin (t=1) in March 2020, July 2014,

0 and December 1985. All oil prices scaled such
oleum consumption, scaled such that 100 = pre-
 -1 0 1 2 3
100 98.7 101.1 100.3 101.3
100 97.8 97.4 101.7 99.1
100 99.8 100.5 99.5 100.4
100 99.7 98.7 98.7 99.8
100 99.2 98.8 98.7 98.0
100 98.7 98.2 99.3 98.9
100 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Figure 4.5.A. Cumulative impulse response of output, by typ

Percent deviation from baseline

0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
t t+3 t
Supply Dema
Source: Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Cumulative impulse responses of real output in EMDEs in response to an oil price plu
projections model estimated for 155 EMDEs, of which 36 are energy exporters (oil,gas or c
4.3). Numbers on the horizontal x-axes indicate years since the oil price plunges which occ
plunges of more than 30 percent over seven months occurred in 1985-86 (supply-driven), 1
1998 (demand-driven), 2001 (demand-driven), 2008-09 (demand-driven), and 2014-16 (sup
Return to Read Me
of output, by type of oil price plunge

ine Supply

Demand

t t+3
Demand
ponse to an oil price plunge, based on a local
y exporters (oil,gas or coal), for 1970-2018 (Annex
price plunges which occurs at t=0. Oil price
85-86 (supply-driven), 1990-91 (demand-driven),
iven), and 2014-16 (supply-driven).
 IRF SdErr
t -0.5 0.2
t+3 -0.6 0.2
t -0.3 0.3
t+3 -0.2 0.3
Figure 4.5.B. Cumulative impulse response of output to dem

Percent deviation from baseline

0.0

-0.5
t t+3 t
Energy exporters Other E
Source: Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Cumulative impulse responses of real output in EMDEs in response to an oil price plu
projections model estimated for 155 EMDEs, of which 36 are energy exporters (oil,gas or c
4.3). Numbers on the horizontal x-axes indicate years since the oil price plunges which occ
plunges of more than 30 percent over seven months occurred in 1985-86 (supply-driven), 1
1998 (demand-driven), 2001 (demand-driven), 2008-09 (demand-driven), and 2014-16 (sup
Return to Read Me
of output to demand-driven oil price plunges

ine

t t+3
Other EMDEs

ponse to an oil price plunge, based on a local

y exporters (oil,gas or coal), for 1970-2018 (Annex
price plunges which occurs at t=0. Oil price
85-86 (supply-driven), 1990-91 (demand-driven),
iven), and 2014-16 (supply-driven).
 IRF SdErr
Energy exporters t -0.4 0.2
t+3 -0.2 0.3
Other EMDEs t -0.3 0.2
t+3 -0.1 0.3
Figure 4.5.C. Cumulative impulse response of output to sup

Percent deviation from baseline

0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
t t+3 t
Energy exporters Other E
Source: Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Cumulative impulse responses of real output in EMDEs in response to an oil price plu
projections model estimated for 155 EMDEs, of which 36 are energy exporters (oil,gas or c
4.3). Numbers on the horizontal x-axes indicate years since the oil price plunges which occ
plunges of more than 30 percent over seven months occurred in 1985-86 (supply-driven), 1
1998 (demand-driven), 2001 (demand-driven), 2008-09 (demand-driven), and 2014-16 (sup
Return to Read Me
of output to supply-driven oil price plunges

ine

t t+3
Other EMDEs
ponse to an oil price plunge, based on a local
y exporters (oil,gas or coal), for 1970-2018 (Annex
price plunges which occurs at t=0. Oil price
85-86 (supply-driven), 1990-91 (demand-driven),
iven), and 2014-16 (supply-driven).
 IRF SdErr
Energy exporters t -0.5 0.2
t+3 -0.4 0.2
Other EMDEs t 0.1 0.2
t+3 -0.1 0.2
Figure 4.5.D. Supply-driven oil price plunges: Cumulative in

Percent deviation from baseline

-1

-2
t t+3 t
Investment Consum
Source: Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Cumulative impulse responses of real investment and consumption in energy-exporti
an oil price plunge, based on a local projections model estimated for 155 EMDEs, of which
(oil,gas or coal), for 1970-2018 (Annex 4.3). Numbers on the horizontal x-axes indicate yea
plunges which occurs at t=0. Oil price plunges of more than 30 percent over seven months
(supply-driven), 1990-91 (demand-driven), 1998 (demand-driven), 2001 (demand-driven), 2
and 2014-16 (supply-driven).
Return to Read Me
s: Cumulative investment and consumption responses in energy-

ine

t t+3
Consumption
mption in energy-exporting EMDEs in response to
r 155 EMDEs, of which 36 are energy exporters
ntal x-axes indicate years since the oil price
ent over seven months occurred in 1985-86
001 (demand-driven), 2008-09 (demand-driven),
esponses in energy-exporting EMDEs
IRF SdErr
Investment t -1.2 0.3
t+3 -1.4 0.4
Consumption t -0.7 0.2
t+3 -0.6 0.2
Figure 4.5.E. Demand-driven oil price-plunges: Cumulative

Percent deviation from baseline

0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Flexible

Fixed

Less
Low

High
Government debt
Exchange rate

Source: Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Cumulative impulse responses of real output in energy-exporting EMDEs in response

based on a local projections model estimated for 155 EMDEs, of which 36 are energy expo
1970-2018 (Annex 4.3). Numbers on the horizontal x-axes indicate years since the oil price
t=0. Oil price plunges of more than 30 percent over seven months occurred in 1985-86 (sup
(demand-driven), 1998 (demand-driven), 2001 (demand-driven), 2008-09 (demand-driven),
driven).Output declines in the year following the oil price plunge. High (low) debt is governm
percent of GDP for upper-middle and lower-middle income economies and 70 percent of G
economies. Fixed exchange rates are as defined in IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arra
Restrictions.
based on a local projections model estimated for 155 EMDEs, of which 36 are energy expo
1970-2018 (Annex 4.3). Numbers on the horizontal x-axes indicate years since the oil price
t=0. Oil price plunges of more than 30 percent over seven months occurred in 1985-86 (sup
(demand-driven), 1998 (demand-driven), 2001 (demand-driven), 2008-09 (demand-driven),
driven).Output declines in the year following the oil price plunge. High (low) debt is governm
percent of GDP for upper-middle and lower-middle income economies and 70 percent of G
economies. Fixed exchange rates are as defined in IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arra
Restrictions.
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es: Cumulative output responses of energy-exporting EMDEs

ine

More
Less
High

Diversification

ing EMDEs in response to an oil price plunge,

ich 36 are energy exporters (oil,gas or coal), for
years since the oil price plunges which occurs at
ccurred in 1985-86 (supply-driven), 1990-91
08-09 (demand-driven), and 2014-16 (supply-
gh (low) debt is government debt above (below) 30
es and 70 percent of GDP for high-income
eport on Exchange Arrangements and
exporting EMDEs
IRF SdErr
Exchange rate Flexible -0.6 0.8
Fixed -1.0 0.3
Government debt Low -0.7 0.7
High -0.9 0.3
Diversification Less -1.0 0.3
More -0.8 0.4
Figure 4.5.F. Supply-driven oil price plunges: Cumulative ou

Percent deviation from baseline

0.0

-0.5

-1.0
Flexible

Fixed

Less
Low

High
Government debt
Exchange rate

Source: Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note:Cumulative impulse responses of real output in energy-exporting EMDEs in response

based on a local projections model estimated for 155 EMDEs, of which 36 are energy expo
1970-2018 (Annex 4.3). Numbers on the horizontal x-axes indicate years since the oil price
t=0. Oil price plunges of more than 30 percent over seven months occurred in 1985-86 (sup
(demand-driven), 1998 (demand-driven), 2001 (demand-driven), 2008-09 (demand-driven),
driven).Output declines in the year following the oil price plunge. High (low) debt is governm
percent of GDP for upper-middle and lower-middle income economies and 70 percent of G
economies. Fixed exchange rates are as defined in IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arra
Restrictions.
based on a local projections model estimated for 155 EMDEs, of which 36 are energy expo
1970-2018 (Annex 4.3). Numbers on the horizontal x-axes indicate years since the oil price
t=0. Oil price plunges of more than 30 percent over seven months occurred in 1985-86 (sup
(demand-driven), 1998 (demand-driven), 2001 (demand-driven), 2008-09 (demand-driven),
driven).Output declines in the year following the oil price plunge. High (low) debt is governm
percent of GDP for upper-middle and lower-middle income economies and 70 percent of G
economies. Fixed exchange rates are as defined in IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arra
Restrictions.
Return to Read Me
s: Cumulative output responses of energy-exporting EMDEs

ine

More
Less
High

Diversification

ng EMDEs in response to an oil price plunge,

ich 36 are energy exporters (oil,gas or coal), for
years since the oil price plunges which occurs at
ccurred in 1985-86 (supply-driven), 1990-91
08-09 (demand-driven), and 2014-16 (supply-
gh (low) debt is government debt above (below) 30
es and 70 percent of GDP for high-income
eport on Exchange Arrangements and
porting EMDEs
IRF SdErr
Exchange rate Flexible 0.0 0.0
Fixed -0.6 0.2
Government debt Low -0.2 0.1
High -0.5 0.2
Diversification Less -0.4 0.2
More 0.0 0.0
Figure 4.6.A. Cumulative output increase for energy-exporti

Index, 100=2014
120

110

100

90
Below Above Floating
average average
Export Exchang
concentration
Source: International Monetary Fund; United Nations Conference on Trade Development (U

Note: Unweighted averages. Whiskers indicate minimum-maximum ranges.“Above average

average concentration” groups are defined by countries above or below the sample averag
in 2016. Concentration index measures the degree of product concentration, where values
country’s exports are highly concentrated on a few products. The average for the sample is
concentrated. Exchange rate classification is based on the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchan
Exchange Restrictions database, in which countries are ranked 0 (no separate legal tender
“Pegged” refers to countries with either a hard or soft peg, which is denoted by a ranking of
denotes those with rankings of 7 to 10 and includes countries with horizontal bands and oth
average concentration” groups are defined by countries above or below the sample averag
in 2016. Concentration index measures the degree of product concentration, where values
country’s exports are highly concentrated on a few products. The average for the sample is
concentrated. Exchange rate classification is based on the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchan
Exchange Restrictions database, in which countries are ranked 0 (no separate legal tender
“Pegged” refers to countries with either a hard or soft peg, which is denoted by a ranking of
denotes those with rankings of 7 to 10 and includes countries with horizontal bands and oth
arrangements. Sample includes 34 (exchange rate) or 34 (concentration) energy-exporting
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 energy-exporting EMDEs, 2014-16

Floating Pegged

Exchange rate

n Trade Development (UNCTAD); World Bank.

ranges.“Above average concentration” and “below

elow the sample average for export concentration
entration, where values closer to 1 indicate a
erage for the sample is 0.6, where 1 is the most
nual Report on Exchange Arrangements and
o separate legal tender) to 10 (free float).
denoted by a ranking of 1 to 6, while “floating”
orizontal bands and other managed
 2016 Low Upper
Below
Export concentration average 106.6 3.8 3.7
Above
average 100.4 3.2 8.5
Exchange rate Floating 105.6 3.3 4.2
Pegged 102.7 4.6 7.3
Figure 4.6.B. Share of energy-exporting EMDEs with increas
Share of EMDE energy exporters
Decreasing Unchanged I
100

75

50

25

0
2013
2014
Consum...2015
2013
2014
GDP2015
2016

2013
2014
Invest...2015
2016

2016
Source: World Bank.
Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
decreasing growth are changes of at least 0.1 percentage point from the previous year. Cou
of contraction from one year to the next are included in the increasing growth category.
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DEs with increasing/decreasing growth
rters
anged Increasing
2013
2014
Consum...2015

2013
2014
2015
2016
2016

Exports

0 prices and market exchange rates. Increasing/

m the previous year. Countries with a slower pace
ng growth category.
 Increasing Unchanged Decreasing Line
2013 41.9 0.0 58.1 50
2014 35.5 3.2 61.3 50
2015 22.6 6.5 71.0 50
GDP 2016 35.5 0.0 64.5 50
50
2013 56.5 0.0 43.5 50
2014 52.2 0.0 47.8 50
2015 17.4 0.0 82.6 50
Investment 2016 43.5 0.0 56.5 50
50
2013 56.5 8.7 34.8 50
2014 26.1 4.3 69.6 50
2015 21.7 8.7 69.6 50
Consumption 2016 39.1 0.0 60.9 50
50
2013 43.5 0.0 56.5 50
2014 56.5 4.3 39.1 50
2015 52.2 0.0 47.8 50
Exports 2016 56.5 0.0 43.5 50
Figure 4.6.C. Foreign exchange reserves and nominal effect

Index, 100=January 2014

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Floating Pegged Floating
Foreign reserves Exchang

Source: Bank for International Settlements; Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; W
Note:Unweighted averages. Whiskers indicate minimum-maximum ranges. Nominal effectiv
foreign reserve levels indexed to 100 in January 2014. Change in official reserve assets fro
observation is December 2016.
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d nominal effective exchange rate appreciation of energy exporter

Floating Pegged
Exchange rate

tional Monetary Fund; World Bank.

anges. Nominal effective exchange rate and
ficial reserve assets from 2014 to 2016. Last
on of energy exporters, 2014-16
Average Lower Upper
Foreign reserves Floating 93.2 6.5 9.4
Pegged 68.4 28.4 28.2
Exchange rate Floating 83.3 14.7 13.2
Pegged 101.2 11.6 17.3
Figure 4.6.D. Change in fiscal balance in energy exporters,

Percentage points of GDP

0

-5

-10

-15

-20
Above Below Floating
average average
Oil revenue Exchang
regime
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Unweighted averages. Whiskers indicate minimum-maximum ranges. Sample include
(excludes Albania, Brunei Darussalam, Ghana, Libya, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Turkme
fiscal balance is measured from 2014- 16. "Above average" and "below average" oil revenu
countries above or below the sample average of oil revenues as a share of GDP based on
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ergy exporters, 2014-16

Floating Pegged

Exchange rate
regime
ranges. Sample includes 28 oil-exporting EMDEs
uth Sudan, and Turkmenistan). Change in overall
low average" oil revenue groups are defined by
hare of GDP based on 2014 data.
 Fiscal balance changeLower Upper
Above
Oil revenue average -7.5 9.5 3.4
Below
average -2.2 3.4 1.9
Exchange rate regime Floating -1.6 3.7 1.5
Pegged -5.5 9.9 3.3
Figure 4.7.A. Consumption of fuels, 2018
Percent of total energy Renewables Nu
consumption Hydroelectric Co
100
75
50
25
0
Brazil

India
Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey
Advanced economies

Source: BP Statistical Review; World Bank.

Note: Oil consumption is measured in million tonnes; other fuels in million tonnes of oil equi
gross generation from renewable sources including wind, geothermal, solar, biomass, and w
border electricity supply.
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wables Nuclear energy
electric Coal
India

China
Turkey

South
Africa

million tonnes of oil equivalent. Renewables are based on

al, solar, biomass, and waste, but not accounting for cross-
 Oil Coal Natural gas Hydroelectric
Brazil 45.7 5.3 10.4 29.5
Mexico 44.3 6.4 41.2 3.9
Indonesia 45.0 33.2 18.1 2.0
Advanced economies 40.6 15.4 25.7 4.1
Turkey 31.6 27.6 26.5 8.8
India 29.5 55.9 6.2 3.9
South
Africa 21.6 70.8 3.1 0.2
China 19.6 58.2 7.4 8.3
Nuclear energy Renewables
1.2 7.9
1.6 2.6
0.0 1.8
8.4 5.8
0.0 5.6
1.1 3.4

2.1 2.3
2.0 4.4
Figure 4.7.B. Contribution of mining investment to U.S. GDP

Percentage points Percent

Mining contribution
0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; World Bank
Note: Mining investment is real private fixed investment of nonresidential structures for min
wells.
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ment to U.S. GDP growth and U.S. industrial production growth
Percentage points
tion
20

10

-10

-20
2012
2014
2016

2019

c Analysis; World Bank.

ential structures for mining exploration, shafts, and
production growth
Year Mining contribution
2000 2000 0.0
2001 0.0
2002 2002 -0.1
2003 0.0
2004 2004 0.0
2005 0.0
2006 2006 0.0
2007 0.0
2008 2008 0.1
2009 -0.2
2010 2010 0.1
2011 0.2
2012 2012 0.1
2013 0.0
2014 2014 0.1
2015 -0.3
2016 2016 -0.3
2017 0.2
2018 0.1
2019 2019 -0.1
Industrial production (RHS)
0.0
-7.0
3.5
0.9
1.4
0.7
-1.1
0.3
-6.0
-8.0
17.0
-2.4
-0.1
-1.0
1.0
-4.1
-1.0
4.3
1.6
-3.1
Figure 4.8.A. Number of reported infections in EMDEs

Thousands of cases
1400
Energy exporters
1200 Other EMDEs
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 Mar 1 Apr 1 Ma
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC); OurWorldInData.org
Note: Daily data. Last observation May 21, 2020.
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in EMDEs
Date
1 Mar
2 Mar
3 Mar
4 Mar
ters 5 Mar
6 Mar
s 7 Mar
8 Mar
9 Mar
10 Mar
11 Mar
12 Mar
13 Mar
14 Mar
15 Mar
16 Mar
17 Mar
18 Mar
19 Mar
20 Mar
21 Mar
22 Mar
23 Mar
24 Mar
25 Mar
26 Mar
27 Mar
1 May 28 Mar
29 Mar
30 Mar
C); OurWorldInData.org; World Bank. 31 Mar
1 Apr
2 Apr
3 Apr
4 Apr
5 Apr
 6 Apr
7 Apr
8 Apr
9 Apr
10 Apr
11 Apr
12 Apr
13 Apr
14 Apr
15 Apr
16 Apr
17 Apr
18 Apr
19 Apr
20 Apr
21 Apr
22 Apr
23 Apr
24 Apr
25 Apr
26 Apr
27 Apr
28 Apr
29 Apr
30 Apr
1 May
2 May
3 May
4 May
5 May
6 May
7 May
8 May
9 May
10 May
11 May
12 May
13 May
14 May
15 May
16 May
17 May
18 May
19 May
20 May
21 May
Energy exporters Other EMDEs
0.8 80.0
1.2 80.2
1.6 80.3
2.5 80.4
3.1 80.6
3.8 80.8
4.9 81.0
6.2 81.0
6.9 81.1
7.6 81.3
8.6 81.5
9.9 81.7
10.8 81.8
12.6 82.1
14.3 82.5
15.9 83.1
17.3 83.9
18.8 84.6
20.4 85.7
22.0 87.1
23.9 88.8
25.7 91.2
27.6 93.5
29.9 95.8
32.6 98.6
35.9 101.9
39.6 105.9
43.8 111.2
48.1 116.5
52.0 121.9
56.8 127.2
61.8 134.1
66.8 141.8
72.4 148.9
74.3 157.4
82.5 166.1
 87.6 176.2
92.8 185.0
98.1 195.9
103.7 208.8
109.3 221.5
117.3 234.5
123.2 247.9
129.7 260.4
136.5 271.9
143.4 286.9
150.9 302.6
159.0 318.3
167.7 334.9
177.8 349.2
189.2 363.8
198.9 379.7
209.6 395.5
220.3 410.3
230.6 428.9
242.4 445.7
254.0 467.3
277.5 483.7
289.3 499.9
302.6 519.9
314.5 541.9
328.1 566.6
343.7 590.4
360.3 611.6
378.9 633.4
398.6 657.0
416.1 682.1
432.1 712.8
451.8 743.7
470.5 774.2
489.9 805.2
510.5 831.6
531.3 854.0
552.9 885.2
573.4 919.7
594.2 957.3
616.3 997.5
638.2 1035.7
659.6 1068.4
680.3 1105.7
702.3 1150.7
724.3 1199.6
Figure 4.8.B. Number of Covid-19-related fatalities in EMDE

Thousands of fatalities
60
Energy exporters
50
Other EMDEs
40

30

20

10

0
1 Mar 1 Apr 1 Ma

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC); OurWorldInData.org
Note: Daily data. Last observation May 21, 2020.
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alities in EMDEs
Date
1 Mar
2 Mar
3 Mar
4 Mar
5 Mar
orters 6 Mar
7 Mar

Es 8 Mar
9 Mar
10 Mar
11 Mar
12 Mar
13 Mar
14 Mar
15 Mar
16 Mar
17 Mar
18 Mar
19 Mar
20 Mar
21 Mar
22 Mar
23 Mar
24 Mar
25 Mar
26 Mar
1 May 27 Mar
28 Mar
29 Mar
30 Mar
C); OurWorldInData.org; World Bank. 31 Mar
1 Apr
2 Apr
3 Apr
4 Apr
5 Apr
 6 Apr
7 Apr
8 Apr
9 Apr
10 Apr
11 Apr
12 Apr
13 Apr
14 Apr
15 Apr
16 Apr
17 Apr
18 Apr
19 Apr
20 Apr
21 Apr
22 Apr
23 Apr
24 Apr
25 Apr
26 Apr
27 Apr
28 Apr
29 Apr
30 Apr
1 May
2 May
3 May
4 May
5 May
6 May
7 May
8 May
9 May
10 May
11 May
12 May
13 May
14 May
15 May
16 May
17 May
18 May
19 May
20 May
21 May
Energy exporterOther EMDEs
0.0 2.9
0.1 2.9
0.1 2.9
0.1 3.0
0.1 3.0
0.1 3.0
0.1 3.1
0.1 3.1
0.2 3.1
0.2 3.1
0.3 3.2
0.4 3.2
0.4 3.2
0.5 3.2
0.6 3.2
0.7 3.2
0.9 3.3
1.0 3.3
1.2 3.3
1.3 3.3
1.5 3.4
1.6 3.4
1.8 3.4
2.0 3.5
2.1 3.6
2.3 3.6
2.5 3.7
2.6 3.8
2.8 4.0
3.0 4.1
3.1 4.2
3.4 4.4
3.6 4.7
3.8 5.0
3.9 5.3
4.3 5.6
 4.5 5.9
4.7 6.3
4.9 6.7
5.1 7.1
5.4 7.6
5.6 8.1
5.8 8.6
6.1 9.1
6.3 9.5
6.6 10.1
6.8 10.7
7.0 12.6
7.2 13.3
7.4 14.0
7.6 14.5
7.9 15.1
8.1 15.8
8.3 16.4
8.5 17.4
8.8 18.3
9.0 19.2
9.2 19.7
9.5 20.6
9.9 21.6
10.2 22.7
10.4 23.8
10.8 24.8
11.3 25.7
11.7 26.5
11.9 27.5
12.2 28.8
12.5 30.1
12.8 31.5
13.1 32.9
13.4 34.3
14.0 35.4
14.3 36.3
14.7 38.0
15.0 39.6
15.2 41.3
15.8 43.0
16.1 44.6
16.4 45.8
16.7 47.1
17.1 49.2
17.4 51.0
Figure 4.8.C. Stringency of mitigation measures

Index
100
90
80
70
60
50
40 Energy ex
30 Other EM
20
10
0
1 Mar 1 Apr 1 Ma
Source: Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker; World Bank.
Note: The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker collects publicly available info
government response including school closures, public events cancellations and public info
as fiscal and monetary measures and emergency investment in healthcare. The index rang
where higher is more stringent measures. Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP we
market exchange rates. To correct for data gaps, data is extended with the most recent obs
121 EMDEs, of which 33 are energy exporters.
government response including school closures, public events cancellations and public info
as fiscal and monetary measures and emergency investment in healthcare. The index rang
where higher is more stringent measures. Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP we
market exchange rates. To correct for data gaps, data is extended with the most recent obs
121 EMDEs, of which 33 are energy exporters.
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 Date
1 Mar
2 Mar
3 Mar
4 Mar
5 Mar
6 Mar
7 Mar
8 Mar
9 Mar
10 Mar
11 Mar
12 Mar
13 Mar
14 Mar
15 Mar

Energy exporters 16 Mar

17 Mar
18 Mar
Other EMDEs 19 Mar
20 Mar
21 Mar
22 Mar
23 Mar
24 Mar
25 Mar
26 Mar
27 Mar
1 May 28 Mar
29 Mar
30 Mar
31 Mar
1 Apr
s publicly available information on 11 indicators of
2 Apr
ellations and public information campaigns as well
lthcare. The index ranges between 0 and 100 3 Apr
alculated using GDP weight at 2010 prices and 4 Apr
with the most recent observation. Sample includes 5 Apr
 6 Apr
7 Apr
8 Apr
9 Apr
10 Apr
11 Apr
12 Apr
13 Apr
14 Apr
15 Apr
16 Apr
17 Apr
18 Apr
19 Apr
20 Apr
21 Apr
22 Apr
23 Apr
24 Apr
25 Apr
26 Apr
27 Apr
28 Apr
29 Apr
30 Apr
1 May
2 May
3 May
4 May
5 May
6 May
7 May
8 May
9 May
10 May
11 May
12 May
13 May
14 May
15 May
16 May
17 May
18 May
19 May
Energy exportersOther EMDEs
13.8 12.2
14.0 12.8
14.9 13.1
15.0 13.6
16.5 14.9
16.5 16.3
17.6 16.4
18.1 17.0
19.8 17.6
22.2 19.5
23.6 21.8
27.4 24.0
32.1 27.2
34.8 30.3
38.2 32.8
46.9 41.3
50.6 44.8
56.4 50.1
58.8 55.0
60.3 58.1
61.9 61.5
63.7 63.4
66.6 67.0
68.7 69.9
70.8 71.9
72.1 73.8
73.6 75.9
76.0 77.2
77.2 77.6
80.3 79.0
81.4 79.5
81.9 80.1
82.1 80.3
82.1 80.7
82.8 80.9
82.9 81.3
82.9 81.4
82.8 81.4
82.8 81.9
82.8 82.3
83.1 82.3
82.8 82.4
83.1 82.5
84.9 82.5
85.0 82.6
85.0 82.5
85.3 82.5
85.3 82.5
85.4 82.4
85.1 82.3
84.6 82.1
84.1 81.8
84.1 81.7
83.9 81.6
84.0 81.6
84.0 81.5
83.7 81.7
83.4 81.1
83.5 81.1
83.4 81.1
83.4 81.1
82.9 80.9
82.9 81.0
82.6 81.1
82.3 79.5
82.3 79.3
82.2 78.7
82.2 78.1
82.2 77.4
82.1 77.4
82.3 77.3
82.2 76.5
82.1 76.2
82.1 76.0
82.0 76.4
81.9 76.6
81.9 76.5
81.9 76.1
81.9 75.9
81.9 75.9
Figure 4.8.D. Share of informal economy in EMDEs

Percent of GDP Percent of em

40

30

20

10

0
Energy Other Energy O
exporters exporters
GDP Employme
(RHS)
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016 data for share of GDP; 2014 data for share of employment.
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EMDEs

ercent of employment
40

30

20

10

0
ergy Other
orters
Employment
(RHS)
 2016 2014
GDP Energy exporters 29.4
Other 33.3
Employment (RHS) Energy exporters 34.4
Other 38.3
Figure 4.9.A. Resource sector activity in energy-exporting E
Percent of GDP
2013
40

30

20

10

0
EAP ECA LAC MNA
Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank.
Note: EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA = Europe and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America a
Middle East and North Africa, and SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Regional aggregates are me
energy-exporting EMDEs. Chart shows resource rents in percent of GDP.
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rgy-exporting EMDEs
EAP
2013 2017 ECA
LAC
MNA
SSA

C MNA SSA

, LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA =

onal aggregates are medians. Sample includes 34
GDP.
2013 2017
9.3 7.1
20.0 16.2
13.1 6.2
34.9 17.9
22.4 14.7
Figure 4.9.B. Export concentration

Index, 1=most concentrated

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
1 2

Source: United Nations Conference on Trade Development (UNCTAD); World Bank.

Note:Orange diamonds denote the median and blue bars represent the interquartile range o
groups. Sample includes 33 energy-exporting EMDEs (excludes South Sudan), 118 energy
advanced economies. Concentration index measures the degree of product concentration,
indicate a country’s exports are highly concentrated on a few products.
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 3

AD); World Bank.

the interquartile range of individual country
uth Sudan), 118 energy-importing EMDEs, and 35
product concentration, where values closer to 1
cts.
 Median Q1 Q3 Range
EMDE oil exporters 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3
EMDE oil importers 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2
Advanced economies 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2
Figure 4.9.C. Share of energy revenues in government reven
Percent of GDP
25 2013

20

15

10

0
ECA LAC MNA
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Bank.
Note: EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA = Europe and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America a
Middle East and North Africa, and SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Regional aggregates are me
energy-exporting EMDEs (Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bolivia, Cameroon, Chad,
Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Nigeria, Oman
Arabia, Sudan, Trinidad and Tobago, and the United Arab Emirates).
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overnment revenues of energy-exporting EMDEs

ECA
2013 2019 LAC
MNA
SSA

MNA SSA

, LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA =

onal aggregates are medians. Sample includes 24
via, Cameroon, Chad, Colombia, Republic of
Kuwait, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi
).
2013 2019
11.8 8.3
12.8 6.8
21.7 13.9
18.8 7.1
Figure 4.9.D. Commodity export share of energy exporters

Percent of exports
120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2013 201
Source: World Bank.
Note: Blue bars show share of commodities in total goods exports. Orange whiskers show t
range.
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ergy exporters
2013
2018

2018

Orange whiskers show the minimum maximum

Average Upper Lower
80.8 19.2 42.7
71.8 27.4 69.3
Figure 4.9.E. Government and corporate debt of energy exp

Percent
60

40

20

0
2013 2019 2013
Government debt Corpora
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Blue bars show unweighted averages. Orange whiskers show the interquartile range.
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bt of energy exporters

2013 2019
Corporate debt

the interquartile range.

 Average Lower Upper
Government debt 2013 27 17 12
2019 49.9 20.0 7.4
Corporate debt 2013 28.2 16.6 9.8
2019 35 13.3 10.9
Figure 4.9.F. Fiscal balance of energy exporters

Percent of GDP

-2

-4
2013 201
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Blue bars show unweighted averages. Orange whiskers show the interquartile range.
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 2013
2019

2019
the interquartile range.
Average Lower Upper
-0.2 4.6 1.8
-2.7 2.7 3.9