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Probability

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Ma Ya
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34 views

Probability

Uploaded by

Ma Ya
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1.

Probability

I am dealing with probabilities and making decisions through them


almost every minute of my life.

I may have to decide whether it is necessary to take an umbrella with me


when I go outside and have to assess the risk that it will rain. Often others will
have previously made the necessary probability calculations for me so that I only
have to act on their conclusions like the PAGASA weather bureau may have
already calculated the probability of it raining so I only need to check their
forecast.

Whenever I’m trying to cross the road. Naturally, I look at the oncoming
vehicles and assess their distance and speed. If I see a car arriving and think
that it is being driven quite fast and the chances are that if I try to cross the road
now, I will get hit. So, I decide not to cross the road. I let that car and a few other
vehicles pass. I now see that the next vehicle is quite far away. I conclude that I
can cross the road safely without being hit by the vehicle.

While I’m driving, I am using probability every minute without being


conscious of it. If I want to reach my destination, I need to be certain that I take
care of distance, traffic, jam possibilities, breakdowns, rush etc.

What I wear depends on various conditions or features, like while


choosing a shirt, the features are colour of the shirt, outside temperature,
material of the shirt, the occasion I am wearing the shirt to, and considering all
these features, I calculate the probability of how comfortable I would be wearing
the shirt and I take a decision.

When I’m using messaging apps. Machine learning and probability are
built into my phone apps, in order to provide things like predictive text, guessing
the word I am trying to type out, or the next word that I may have wanted to use
next so I could just tap it instead of typing it out. The same goes when I’m using
Search Engines, they are predicting what I’m searching based on the key words
I’m typing in the search box. Also probability.

If my alarm rings, but I hardly got any sleep last night. I will decide if I will
sleep an extra half hour by foregoing some of my morning routine, with the risk
of oversleeping and being late for my online class, or just get up.
So in general, whenever I consider the chances of something happening, I
am actually implementing the mathematical concept of probability.

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