Disaster Risk Management and Vulnerability
Disaster Risk Management and Vulnerability
Dr. Suvit Yodmani is the Executive Director of the Asian Disaster Preparedness
Center, Bangkok, Thailand. The paper was delivered at the “Social Protect Workshop
6: Protecting Communities – Social Funds and Disaster Management”
CONTENTS
Acronym iii
Conclusion 16
References 17
Appendix A- Community Based Disaster Management Process 19
Appendix B:-Community Based Risk Assessment 27
ii
Acronym
iii
List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Boxes
iv
Acknowledgement
This paper is a consolidated effort of many persons and I would like to acknowledge
each and everyone’s effort.
I would like to thank my colleagues Mr. David Hollister, Aloysius J. Rego, Rajesh
Sharma, Zenaida Dellica, Merrick Chatfield and Kamal Kishore of Asian Disaster
Preparedness Center for their valuable inputs to the substance and structure of this
paper.
v
Summary
___________________________________________________________________________________
Summary
A paradigm shift in the development sector – from income poverty to human poverty
– has been paralleled in the disaster management sector by a shift from seeing
disasters as extreme events created by natural forces, to viewing them as
manifestations of unresolved development problems. This has led to increased
emphasis on integration of poverty reduction programs with other sectoral issues such
as environmental management, gender and public health. However, examples of
systematic long-term integration of such programs with the disaster management
sector are few. Over the past few decades, there was an exponential increase in human
and material losses from disaster events, though there was no clear evidence that the
frequency of extreme hazard events had increased. This indicated that the rise in
disasters and their consequences was related to a rise in people’s vulnerability,
induced by human-determined paths of development. An evolution in approaches –
from relief and response to vulnerability analysis to risk management – has started
influencing how disaster management programs are now being planned and financed.
As it is becoming clear that the nature of people’s vulnerability is complex and varied,
linkages between poverty and vulnerability are being explored. Three approaches to
doing this include a livelihood framework from the bilateral development aid context,
community-based disaster management from that sector, and risk transfer and finance
from multilateral development finance institutions. The Asian Development Bank
(ADB) has been in the forefront of recognizing the adverse impact of disasters on
development and has played a pioneering role in promoting the incorporation of
disaster reduction in development planning. ADB can set an example by making
disaster risk assessment an integral part of the proposal approval process and by
adopting appropriate mitigation measures in project implementation. Poverty
reduction and disaster reduction programs can mutually support each other by
developing innovative, multi-dimensional, inter-sectoral approaches
vi
Disaster Risk Management And Vulnerability Reduction: Protecting The Poor
I. Introduction
Poverty reduction has been one of the main objectives of development programs in
many developing countries of the world for the last several decades. Over the years,
the very definition of poverty has evolved from just looking at people's income to
taking a more holistic view of their well being. Improved access to public health
facilities, improved life expectancy and gender equity have become some of the
essential indicators of the success of poverty reduction programs. This has led to
increased emphasis on better integration of poverty reduction programs with other
sectoral issues such as environmental management, gender development and public
health. However, examples of systematic long-term integration of poverty reduction
programs with disaster management sector have been very few. Kreimer and Arnold
(2001) point out that “development efforts are focused on helping the poor in dealing
with many of the risks they face in daily life – such as in employment, health care,
transport, education, water and sanitation. But disaster risk traditionally has not been
a priority on the development agenda. When carefully laid development plans were
tragically interrupted by disasters the international community relied on
organizations such as the United Nations and the IFRC to step in with relief services.
When the emergency work was over, reconstruction efforts began to get the country
‘back on the development track’.” Clearly, most poverty reduction programs have
left a lot to be desired in terms of integration with disaster management
Almost in parallel with the paradigm shift in poverty reduction programs -- from
income poverty to human poverty -- the disaster management sector has also seen a
paradigm shift. Disasters are no longer seen as extreme events created entirely by
natural forces but as manifestations of unresolved problems of development. The
disaster management practices have evolved from largely a top-down relief and
response approach to a more inter-sectoral risk management approach. In the current
paradigm of risk management approaches, there is more room than ever before for
addressing the issues of risk reduction for the poor.
Till a few decades ago, disasters were viewed as one-off events and responded by
governments and relief agencies without taking into account the social and economic
implications and causes of these events. With significant advancement in our
understanding of the natural processes that underlie the hazardous events, a more
technocratic paradigm came into existence which believed that the “only way to deal
with disasters was by public policy application of geophysical and engineering
knowledge”. These approaches looked at disasters as exceptional events, not related
to the ongoing social and developmental processes. Gradually this attitude changed
to an emphasis on preparedness measures, such as stockpiling of relief goods,
preparedness plans and a growing role for relief agencies such as the Red Cross.
This “contingency planning” approach certainly improved the efficiency of relief
agencies but left a lot to be desired in terms of appropriateness and effectiveness of
relief.
1
Paradigm Shifts – From Relief and Response to Disaster Risk Management
Over the four decades from the sixties, till the nineties there was an exponential
increase in human and material losses from disaster events, though there was no clear
evidence that the frequency of extreme hazard events had increased. This indicated
that the rise in disasters and their consequences was related to the rise in the
vulnerability of people all over the world that was induced by the human determined
path of development. Noteworthy also was the recognition that this increase in
vulnerability was not uniform. There were large variations across regions, nations,
provinces, cities, communities, socio-economic classes, castes and even genders.
Fredrick Cuny (1983, 14) in his much acclaimed book Disasters and Development
cites a classic example. An earthquake of magnitude 6.4 occurred in San Fernando,
California in 1971. In a city of over seven million people, only fifty-eight deaths
were reported. Two years later, a similar earthquake, registering a magnitude of 6.2
on the Richter scale, in Managua, Nicaragua reduced the center of the city to rubble
and killed over six thousand people. Similar patterns can be seen in other recent
disasters. From this realization that people’s vulnerability is a key factor determining
the impact of disasters on them, emphasis shifted to using “vulnerability analysis” as
a tool in disaster management. In recent years, a more comprehensive approach that
of disaster risk management has emerged. This approach has three distinct but inter-
related components: hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis and enhancement of
management capacity and is more closely integrated with the ongoing development
processes. Disasters are no longer viewed as extreme events created entirely by
natural forces but as unresolved problems of development. It is now recognized that
risks (physical, social and economic) unmanaged (or mismanaged) for a long time
lead to occurrence of disasters.
This evolution of approaches from relief and response to risk management has begun
to influence the way disaster management programs are now being planned and
financed. There are initiatives aimed at reducing social and economic vulnerability
and investing in long-term mitigation activities. Unfortunately such initiatives aimed
at prevention and mitigation are few, poorly funded and insignificant in comparison
with money spent by donors and development banks on humanitarian assistance and
relief, as well as on post disaster reconstruction.
Another weakness of such initiatives that they are often taken up in the formal sector
of the economy, and bypass the poor and the most vulnerable sections of society. As
Maskrey (1999, 86) points out, “in the year or so between the occurrence of a disaster
and approved national reconstruction plans, many vulnerable communities revert to
coping with risk, often in the same or worse conditions than before the disaster
actually struck.” Therefore, in the current paradigm of risk management approaches,
there is more room than ever before for addressing the issues of risk reduction for the
poor. This is also in consonance with the paradigm shift in the mainstream
development practice, which is now characterized by emphasis on good governance,
accountability and greater focus on bottom-up approaches.
2
Paradigm Shifts – From Relief and Response to Disaster Risk Management
Figure 1
Evolution of Human Poverty and Risk Management Paradigms
3
Poverty and Vulnerability
While it is clear that the poor are often the most affected in a disaster, it is too
simplistic to assume that there is a direct and absolute correlation between poverty
and vulnerability. Cannon (1994) points out that "it may be true that most of the
suffering in disasters is experienced by poor people, it may not be the case that all
poor suffer. Nor is it only the poor who suffer, the impact of hazards may well be a
factor in creating newly impoverished people." Poverty, as an indicator of lack of
access to resources and income opportunities, is only one of the several dimensions
of vulnerability. While discussing the linkage between poverty and vulnerability
Blaikie et al. (1994) point out that "vulnerability is a combination of characteristics
of a person or group, expressed in relation to hazard exposure [author's emphasis]
which derives from the social and economic condition of the individual, family, or
community concerned. High levels of vulnerability imply a grave outcome in hazard
events, but are a complex descriptive measure of people's lack or need. Vulnerability
is a relative and specific term, always implying a vulnerability to a particular
hazard."
In addition to the economic dimension, there are also other aspects of social
positioning such as class, ethnicity, community structure, community decision
making processes and political issues that determine poor people’s vulnerability. A
poor community may be economically vulnerable but at the same time may have
social, cultural and political capacities to cope with disasters. Risk reduction
strategies for the poor should work towards reducing economic vulnerability and at
the same time capitalize on (and perhaps nurture) the inherent social and cultural
capacities of the poor communities. It is imperative that while improving the
economic resilience of such communities, the physical, social and political risks are
also recognized and managed.
It is becoming clear that the nature of vulnerability of the poor is complex and varied.
Hence there are no straightforward solution for risk reduction for the poor. It will
require multi-dimensional approaches and innovative institutional arrangements to
achieve the goal of risk reduction for the poor.
4
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
As mentioned earlier in this paper, there have been relatively few examples of
systematic integration of poverty reduction and disaster reduction programs. This
section of the paper presents three approaches that have evolved over the last several
years in development and disaster management sectors. First, is the livelihood
framework evolved in bilateral development aid context; the second is community-
based disaster management evolved in disaster management sector; and the third risk
transfer and finance, comes from multilateral development finance institutions.
Over the last few years a more holistic framework has emerged to assess the
sustainability of livelihood strategies adopted by poor people. The work of
Sustainable Rural Livelihoods Advisory Committee of DFID in this area is a good
example here. The Committee has designed a livelihood framework, which
recognizes 5 distinct elements, interactions which determine the extent of
sustainability of livelihood strategies of a particular community. These 5 elements
are:
• vulnerability context of poor people;
• their livelihood assets (human, social, physical, natural and financial capital);
• transforming structures (government, private sector) and processes (laws,
institutions);
• livelihood strategies
• livelihood outcomes
5
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
Key
H- Human Capital S- Social Capital
N- Natural Capital P- Physical Capital
F- Financial Capital
LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
TRANSFORMING LIVELIHOOD
VULNERABILITY STRUCTURES & In OUTCOMES
CONTEXT H PROCESSES Order
To § More income
S N Structures LIVELIHOOD § Increased well
§ Shocks Influence § Levels of Laws Achie being
STRATEGIES
§ Trends & access Govt. Policy ve § Reduced
§ vulnerability
§ Seasonality Sector
Private Culture
Institutions § Improved
Processes food security
§ More sustainable
F use of NR base
P
6
6
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
Frequently disasters adversely affect the livelihoods of poor people by damaging their
means of earning (destruction of the factory, loss of land due to erosion in flooding,
destruction of the shop) and/or tools (loss of draught animals, plowing tools, etc).
Mainstream disaster management responses frequently do not focus on rehabilitation
of peoples' means of livelihood. Families, who lose their means of livelihood during a
disaster, find their recovery from adverse effects become more unlikely and their
vulnerability to future disasters more increased. It is also assumed that if people will
have better sources of livelihoods and higher incomes, they will spend more on
disaster risk management in order to save their property, because due to higher
incomes they have savings to spend for this purpose. But if they do not have any
savings then spending on disaster management, becomes the least priority in
comparison to the chronic issues of survival. Diversity in the sources of livelihoods is
very important for increasing people's capacity to cope and recover. For example, a
family that has two different sources of income including a tract of land and a shop.
If this family loses the crop and one draught animal due to a severe flooding event, it
still has the shop. This family will be in a better position to sustain after damage to
crops and to recover by buying another animal by mobilizing the savings from the
shop in comparison to a family which has only one tract of land and loses the standing
crop and one animal, and does not have any other source of income. Thus, investment
on strengthening and diversifying the sources of livelihoods of the people of disaster
prone areas can be an effective strategy for disaster risk reduction in the long run.
ADPC has been involved in such initiatives in various countries of the South Asian
region in collaboration with its partners.
7
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
The ADPC is involved in a joint initiative on "Livelihood Options for Disaster Risk
Reduction in South Asia" which is being implemented in India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri
Lanka by partners of Duryog Nivaran, a South Asian regional network on disaster
management.
The program proclaims that the relationship between livelihoods and disasters needs to be
explored, in order to reduce people's vulnerabilities and strengthen their capacities to cope
with disasters. Many times livelihoods of the poor are adversely affected by disasters. This
affects people's ability to recover. It also makes them more vulnerable to any future
disasters. Thus, there is a need to study how livelihoods of people are affected, what
opportunities are available to strengthen people's livelihoods, and what actions could be
taken at local and policy levels.
In this regard, the Disaster Mitigation Institute (DMI), Ahmedabad, Jouranlists Resource
Center (JRC) and Thardeep Rural Development Program (TRDP), Pakistan and
Intermediate Technology Development Group Nepal and Sri Lanka are conducting research
in selected disaster prone regions in four countries. Along with looking into livelihood
damage patterns, the studies are also identifying pilot projects for strengthening the
livelihoods of selected households in the research areas. Completion of research and pilot
projects will be followed by national level workshops, where findings will be shared with
policy makers, NGOs, media, donors and other disaster management related agencies. Later
a South Asian regional workshop is to be conducted to share national learning and promote
regional cooperation in this regard. Key national policy-making agencies, regional agencies
like SAARC secretariat, regional media, NGOs, donors, UN agencies and IFRC/ ICRC
missions will be invited to this regional event.
Recognizing the need for vulnerability reduction for effective disaster management
failures of a top down management approach becomes evident. This approach was
unsuccessful in addressing the needs of vulnerable communities. Also better
understanding of disasters and losses brings to light the fact that an increase in
occurrence of disasters and disaster related loss is due to the exponential increase in
occurrence of small and medium scale disasters. As a result many feel it is important
to adopt a new strategy, which directly involves vulnerable people themselves in
planning and implementation of mitigation measures. This bottom up approach has
received wide acceptance because considered communities are the best judges of their
own vulnerability and can make the best decisions regarding their well being.
What is the community based disaster management (CBDM) approach? The aim of
CBDM is to reduce vulnerabilities and strengthen people’s capacity to cope with
hazards. A thorough assessment of a community’s exposure to hazards and an
analysis of their specific vulnerabilities and capacities is the basis for activities,
projects and programs that can reduce disaster risks. Because a community is
8
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
involved in the whole process, their felt and real needs as well as inherent resources
are considered. Therefore there is a greater likelihood that problems will be addressed
with appropriate interventions.
§ The community has a central role in long term and short term disaster
management. The focus of attention in disaster management must be the local
community.
9
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
expand its resource base. The local community level links up with the
intermediate and national and even up to the international level to address the
complexity of vulnerability issues. A wide range of approaches to disaster risk
reduction is employed.
Table 1
Tools of Community Risk Assessment
Tool Description
Review of secondary data Collection of relevant information from published or
unpublished sources
10
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
§ Making health and sanitation services available at the community level, through
capacity building of the community workers make first aid, mother and child care,
supplementary feeding for malnourished children, promotion of low cost nutrition
food, education and awareness generation for better hygiene and sanitation
conditions. They will reduce risks of disease and epidemic.
11
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
Under the Asian Urban Disaster Mitigation Program (AUDMP) of ADPC, CARE
Bangladesh is implementing the Bangladesh Urban Disaster Mitigation Project
(BUDMP). The project will begin with the establishment of community-based flood
mitigation and disaster preparedness system in the two demonstration project sites – the
municipalities of Gaibandha and Tongi. Through this process, the project aims to
improve the capacity and skills of the communities to manage the risks and apply
mitigation skills in the urban areas. It is expected that the best practices and lessons
learned from the two demonstration project sites will be replicated in other municipal
areas of Bangladesh.
The CBFMP program required that several agencies collaborate to oversee and
implement the program, including a number of donor agencies that participated on a
financial basis in order to ensure the completion of individual projects in the selected
communities of the three provinces (Kandal, Prey Veng, and Kompong Cham).
Thus, for each of the flood mitigation projects in each community, a large proportion of
the financial support had to come from outside the community. The cost-sharing funds
were obtained from a variety of NGOs/donor agencies operating in Cambodia. None of
the communities had previously received any form of financial aid for a project of this
nature and this served as new experience for the CBFMP participants.
12
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
This section draws from the sources of World Bank, 2000 and ADPC’s training
material.
Credit Markets
They are informal sources of lending and borrowing on the basis of a household’s
needs. Credit markets help in smoothening production and consumption shocks.
These credits are repaid based on a random schedule of production. Free flow of
information in this informal system helps in the process of scheduling repayments,
fixing interest rates and play a direct role in insuring against the risk. This system is
effective at protecting households from risks but not at the village level.
13
Integrating Poverty Reduction Programs with Disaster Management Sector
withdraw this facility once the situation has improved and the insurance
companies can manage the risk exposure.
§ Micro-credits: Micro finance and rural banks are important sources of credit for
the poor. However such an institution may be overwhelmed with credit demands
at the time of a disaster.
14
ADB’s Role in Disaster Management and Mitigation
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been in the forefront in recognizing the
adverse impact of disasters on development and it has played a pioneering role in
promoting the incorporation of disaster reduction in development planning. Loans
extended by the Bank in the area of disaster mitigation and post-disaster
rehabilitation was over US$2bn (at real 1997 prices) during the ten year period of
1988-1998. Additionally, the Bank has made more than thirty disaster-related
technical assistance (TA) loans/grants. ADPC has been proud to be associated with
two RETAs and one national grant. One RETA studied disaster management
practices in selected DMCs, organized a seminar and published two highly acclaimed
handbooks, Disaster Mitigation in Asia and the Pacific, ADB 1991, and Disaster
Management: A Disaster Manager’s Handbook, ADB 1991 and Disaster Mitigation:
The Role of the Asian Development Bank, ADB 1991. A second RETA supported
the institutional strengthening of ADPC.
Seminal ADB papers on its role in disaster mitigation and its experience of post-
disaster rehabilitation have focused on important future directions for the Bank in the
field of disaster management as given below:
Being a major source of post-disaster rehabilitation funding, there is a clear need for
the Bank’s continued involvement in this field and to improve the performance of its
loans for this purpose. Longer-term post disaster reconstruction programs should go
beyond the status quo ante, be aimed at vulnerability reduction. Such programs
should have broad sectoral/structural objectives and be well integrated into the long-
term development programs of DMCs, thus benefiting from detailed planning studies
and effective institutional support. In all operations funded by it the Bank should set
an example by incorporating disaster risk assessment as an integral part of the
approval process and adopting appropriate mitigation measures in project
implementation.
15
Conclusion
VI. Conclusion
Over the past two decades both poverty reduction programs as well as disaster
reduction programs have gone through a paradigm shift. Both have moved towards
being establishing stronger linkages with sectoral issues. However, there has been
relatively few examples of effective, systematic and long-term integration between
disaster reduction and poverty reduction programs. There are tangible opportunities
for integration between the two. This will require more research on understanding
the nature of linkages between poverty and vulnerability in different social, political,
economic and hazard-specific contexts. This understanding will lead to development
of specific frameworks and methodologies for integration of poverty and disaster
reduction programs. At present, livelihood frameworks that recognize people’s
vulnerability context, community-based disaster management approaches and risk
transfer and finance mechanisms are some of the approaches that can be used for this
integration. In the coming years, poverty reduction and disaster reduction programs
will have to develop innovative, multi-dimensional, inter-sectoral approaches to
mutually support each other.
16
References
References
AUDMP Briefing Notes, Compiled for the 5th Working Group Meeting of the Asian
Urban Disaster Mitigation Program, Cambodia, 23-25 February 2000,
Organized by Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok, Thailand.
Blakie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I. and Wisner, B. (1994) At Risk: Natural Hazards,
People’s Vulnerability and Disasters, Routledge, London, UK.
Kreimer Alcira, Margaret Arnold, 2001. The poor suffer the mos’, Our Planet, vol.
11, No.3, UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya.
Kreimer Alcira, Margaret Arnold (ed), 2000. ‘Managing Disaster Risk in Emerging
Economies’, Disaster Risk Management Series No. 2, World Bank,
Washington D.C., USA.
17
Appendix A
Appendix A
The disaster risk reduction process has six sequential stages, which can be
operationalized before a disaster occurs or after one has happened to reduce future
risks. Each stage grows out of the preceding stage and leads to further action.
Together, the sequence can build up a planning and implementation system, which
can become a powerful disaster risk reduction tool. The system or the process is
presented in the diagram below. The stages in the risk reduction process are as
follows:
19
Appendix A
Stage 1: Involvement
• Request for assessment from within or from vulnerable
communities
• Identification of threats and vulnerability to them by intermediaries
External • A hazard event or disaster that highlights the need for assistance
Involvement • Knowledge of disaster management, resources and community by
intermediary organizations
• Knowledge of local situations, processes and systems
20
Phases and Roles in a Community Based Disaster Management Project
∇
Reference: Zen Delica, 1999, ADPC Course on Community-Based Approaches to Disaster Management, ADPC, AIT, Bangkok, Thailand and Regional Office for
Asia, IIRR. 1998. Basic Community Development Training: A Participants Training Material. International Institute of Rural Reconstruction, Y.C. James Yen, Silang,
Cavite, Philippines.
Community-Based Disaster Mitigation: From A Management Perspective
How does a community get started with the disaster risk reduction framework? In
some cases, several community members or an organization in the community
approaches an intermediary organization for assistance after experiencing a disaster
or in preparing for an impending disaster threat.
In many instances, a probable hazard event or disaster threat can be turned into an
opportunity to start a community-based disaster management program. When the
knowledge, skills and experiences in disaster risk reduction, which are in
communities are systematized and disseminated, there will be more community-to-
community sharing on how to get started and implement community-based disaster
management.
2. Community Profiling
• social groups
• cultural arrangements
• economic activities
• spatial characteristics
• vulnerable households and groups
23
Appendix A
• hazard assessment
• vulnerability assessment
• capacity assessment
• people's perception of the risks
Preparedness and mitigation measures to reduce disaster risks are identified. These
risk reduction measures are not necessarily big projects. The important point is to
start off the risk reduction process through community mobilization based on existing
capacities and resources within the community's immediate reach.
Overall objectives, strategies are translated to operational plans and activities. The
people, timetable, resources within and outside the community needed to turn the
intent of the plan into reality are identified. Community targets in undertaking
preparedness and mitigation measures in terms of particular capacities increased and
vulnerabilities decreased.
24
Appendix A
Besides monitoring the progress of the plan implementation, this core group
motivates the community through translation of plan objectives and targets into
disaster reduction activities. This group also amends targets and plans, when
necessary, to keep on course with set objectives to reduce vulnerabilities and increase
capacities in the immediate and long-term.
Evaluation is concerned with the effects of the risk reduction measures in terms of
reducing the vulnerability situation of the community. If vulnerability has not been
significantly reduced, the reasons for this are analyzed. The significance of building
on existing capacities and those, which have been actually increased, are also
analyzed.
It is concerned with the difference the results of the risk reduction measures have
made to the community situation and its overall quality of life. Lessons are drawn
and best practices are shared with other groups and communities to promote the
CBDM framework and strategy.
Source:
ADPC, 2000. Community Disaster Based Management, Trainer’s Guide (M2-05).
25
Appendix B
Appendix B
I. Disaster Risk
Risk is the probability of something happening in the future, which has a negative
consequence. It is a prediction of suffering harm or loss or of meeting danger.
Hazard x Vulnerability
Disaster Risk = -----------------------------------
Manageability
Manageability here stands for the degree to which a community can intervene and
manage a hazard in order to reduce its potential impact. This implies that based on
people's perception of their disaster risk, they are able to make decisions to adapt to,
modify or ignore the risk.
Hazard x Vulnerability
Disaster Risk = ----------------------------------
Capacity
Risk Assessment (also risk analysis or evaluation) has traditionally been done by
economists, scientists and experts in insurance companies, government agencies on
agriculture, environmental management, health, public works and highways, etc. who
are concerned with estimating probable damages and proposing mitigation measures
based on cost-benefit analysis.
The outputs of CBDM disaster risk assessment are quantitative estimates of probable
loss of life, damage to property and the environment. Based on the criteria
developed by the community, the risk measurement is then summarized as severe,
moderate and minor or high, medium and low.
27
Appendix B
Kates (1978) describes risk assessment as an appraisal of the kinds and degrees of
threat posed by a hazard. It includes hazard identification, the measurement of its
threat and understanding the social meaning of such measurements. The key
questions answered in risk assessment are the following: "What hazardous events
may occur?" "What is the probability of each event?" "What is the loss created by
each event?" “How important is the estimated risk?"
28
Appendix B
Community based risk assessment has four main inter-related steps. These are:
• vulnerability assessment: identifies what elements are at risk and why they
are at risk (unsafe conditions resulting from dynamic pressures which are
consequences of root or underlying causes)
The results of the community risk assessment is then summarized in tabular form
using the Hazard Capacity Vulnerability Analysis. A sample of the summarized
result of the community risk assessment process is shown below.
29
Appendix B
30
Appendix B
• To ensure that the risk reduction is going to be adequate and appropriate. Risk
reduction planning should incorporate a balance between preparedness and
long term mitigation measures.
• To ensure that risk reduction will be cost effective and sustainable. In many
situations, the viable track to reduce vulnerabilities is through increasing the
community's capacities. Existing material, social and attitudinal capacities
should be built and areas and strategies for capacity building should be
identified. The impact of various preparedness and mitigation measures on
risks in the immediate and in the long-term can also be compared.
Community Risk Assessment provides the community and support agencies with
disaster specific baseline data that can be integrated in a situational analysis for
development planning purposes.
Community Risk Assessment provides support agencies with information that can be
used for ‘intelligent and informed estimates’ in order to draft emergency appeals
(even when the community is inaccessible during the emergency period).
Furthermore, it provides the community and support agencies with baseline data
which is useful in doing the ‘damage, needs, capacities assessment’ of the
community for emergency response purposes.
31
Appendix B
Note
Source:
ADPC, 2000. Community Based Disaster Management, Trainer’s Guide (M3-01)
32