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Unit V Human Resource Planning in Nepal:-Demographic Trend Analysis

This document discusses human resource planning in Nepal. It begins by explaining demographic trend analysis and its use in estimating population sizes and flows. Next, it covers demand forecasting for human resources, which involves estimating future requirements based on factors like employment trends, replacement needs due to attrition, productivity improvements, and organizational expansion. The main methods of demand forecasting discussed are executive judgment, work load forecasting, and supply forecasting, which involves analyzing the current inventory of human resources based on attributes like headcount, job families, age, skills, qualifications, and salaries. The document concludes by mentioning shortage of skilled manpower and its effect on development as well as issues of human resource development at the national level in Nepal.

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Sujan Chaudhary
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165 views

Unit V Human Resource Planning in Nepal:-Demographic Trend Analysis

This document discusses human resource planning in Nepal. It begins by explaining demographic trend analysis and its use in estimating population sizes and flows. Next, it covers demand forecasting for human resources, which involves estimating future requirements based on factors like employment trends, replacement needs due to attrition, productivity improvements, and organizational expansion. The main methods of demand forecasting discussed are executive judgment, work load forecasting, and supply forecasting, which involves analyzing the current inventory of human resources based on attributes like headcount, job families, age, skills, qualifications, and salaries. The document concludes by mentioning shortage of skilled manpower and its effect on development as well as issues of human resource development at the national level in Nepal.

Uploaded by

Sujan Chaudhary
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Unit v

Human Resource Planning in Nepal:-


Demographic Trend Analysis:-
Demographic trend Analysis includes the things that allow us to measure
the dimensions and dynamics of populations. These methods have
primarily been developed to study human populations, but are extended
to a variety of areas where researchers want to know how populations of
social actors can change across time through processes of birth, death,
and migration. In the context of human biological populations,
demographic analysis uses administrative records to develop an
independent estimate of the population. Demographic analysis estimates
are often considered a reliable standard for judging the accuracy of the
census information gathered at any time. In the labor force, demographic
analysis is used to estimate sizes and flows of populations of workers in
population ecology the focus is on the birth, death, migration and
immigration of individuals in a population of living organisms,
alternatively, in social human sciences could involve movement of firms
and institutional forms. Demographic analysis is used in a wide variety
of contexts. For example, it is often used in business plans, to describe
the population connected to the geographic location of the business.

Forecasting of Demand and Supply of Technical and Non-Technical


Manpower in Nepal

Demand Forecasting:

Demand forecasting is a quantitative aspect of human resource planning.


It is the process of estimating the future requirement of human resources
of all kinds and types of the organization.
Factors:

Forecasting of demand for human resources depends on certain


factors such as:

(1) Employment trend in the organisation for at least last five years to be
tracedto determine the future needs.

(2) Organisation has to find out the replacement needs due to retirement,
death, resignation, termination etc.

(3) Improvement in productivity is yet another factor. To improve


productivity organisation needs better employees with skills and
potential. Productivity leads to growth but depends on the demands for
the product of the enterprise in the market. Higher demand may lead to
more employment of skilled personnel’s.

(4) Expansion of the organisation leads to hiring of more skilled persons.


The base of human resource forecast is the annual budget.
Manufacturing plan depends upon the budget. Expansion in production
leads to more hiring of skills and technology.

Methods of Demand Forecasting:

There are three major methods of demand forecasting. They are as


follows.

(1) Executive Judgment:

Executive or Managerial Judgment method is the most suitable for


smaller enterprises because they do not afford to have work study
technique. Under this method the executives sit together and determine
the future manpower requirements of the enterprise and submit the
proposal to the top management for approval. This approach is known as
‘bottom up’ approach.

Sometimes the members of top management sit together and determine


the needs on the advice of personnel department. The forecasts so
prepared sent for review to the departmental heads and after their
consent approved the need. This is known as ‘top down’ approach. The
best way is the combination of the two approaches. Executives at both
levels equipped with guidelines sit together and determine the human
resources need of the organization.

(2) Work Load Forecasting:

It is also known as work load analysis. Under this method the stock of
workload and the continuity of operations are determined. Accordingly
the labour requirement is determined. The workload becomes the base
for workforce analysis for the forthcoming years. Here due consideration
is given to absenteeism and labour turnover. This method is also known
as work study technique. Here working capacity of each employee is
calculated in terms of man-hours. Man-hours required for each unit is
calculated and then number of required employees is calculated.

Supply Forecasting:

Supply forecasting means to make an estimation of supply of human


resources taking into consideration the analysis of current human
resources inventory and future availability.

Existing Inventory:

The first step in supply forecasting is to take a stock of existing HR


inventory as follows.
(a) Head Count:

Count of the total number of people available department-wise, sex-


wise, designation-wise, skill-wise, pay roll-wise etc.

(b) Job Family Inventory:

It consists to number and category of employees of each job family i.e.


the jobs related to same category like office staff, sales and marketing
staff, production staff, maintenance and industrial engineers, quality
control engineers etc.

(c) Age Inventory:

It consists of age-wise number and category of employees. This gives us


age composition of human resources. Dynamism, creative abilities
innovativeness is present in young employees while making of proper
judgment and display of maturity is shown by elderly employees.

Organisations prefer both young and old employees. Human resource


planning should give due consideration to age-wise human resource
mixing young and old employees in due proportions.

(d) Inventory of skill, experience, values and capabilities:

Organisation should take a stock of present inventory of skill, employees


with number of years of experiences (10 yrs, 15-yrs, 20 yrs and more
etc.), values and capabilities.

(e) Inventory of Qualifications and Training:

This consists of educational qualifications of the employees academic


and technical and special qualifications if any and the training received
by the employees.
(f) Inventory of Salary grades:

This includes pay and allowance-wise and total emoluments-wise stock


taking.

(g) Sex wise Inventory:

Inventory of male and female employees of the organisation.

Shortage of Skilled Manpower and its effect on development (Lecturer


Concept on Relevant Topic)

Issues of Human Resource development at the National Level (Lecturer


Concept on Relevant Topic)

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