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Demand Forecasting: It’s

Meaning, Types, Techniques and
Method | Economics
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Demand Forecasting: It’s Meaning, Types, Techniques and

Method!
Contents:
1. Meaning

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2. Types of Forecasting

3. Forecasting Techniques

4. Criteria of a Good Forecasting Method

Meaning:
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Forecasts are becoming the lifetime of business in a world, where the

tidal waves of change are sweeping the most established of structures,
inherited by human society. Commerce just happens to the one of the
first casualties. Survival in this age of economic predators, requires the
tact, talent and technique of predicting the future.

Forecast is becoming the sign of survival and the language of business.

All requirements of the business sector need the technique of accurate
and practical reading into the future. Forecasts are, therefore, very
essential requirement for the survival of business. Management
requires forecasting information when making a wide range of
decisions.

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The sales forecast is particularly important as it is the foundation upon

which all company plans are built in terms of markets and revenue.
Management would be a simple matter if business was not in a
continual state of change, the pace of which has quickened in recent
years.

It is becoming increasingly important and necessary for business to

predict their future prospects in terms of sales, cost and profits. The
value of future sales is crucial as it affects costs profits, so the
prediction of future sales is the logical starting point of all business
planning.

A forecast is a prediction or estimation of future situation. It is an

objective assessment of future course of action. Since future is
uncertain, no forecast can be percent correct. Forecasts can be both
physical as well as financial in nature. The more realistic the forecasts,
the more effective decisions can be taken for tomorrow.

In the words of Cundiff and Still, “Demand forecasting is an estimate

of sales during a specified future period which is tied to a proposed
marketing plan and which assumes a particular set of uncontrollable
and competitive forces”. Therefore, demand forecasting is a projection
of firm’s expected level of sales based on a chosen marketing plan and
environment.

Procedure to Prepare Sales Forecast:

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Companies commonly use a three-stage procedure to prepare a sales

forecast. They make an environmental forecast, followed by an
industry forecast, and followed by a company’s sales forecast, the
environmental forecast calls for projecting inflation, unemployment,
interest rate, consumer spending, and saving, business investment,
government expenditure, net exports and other environmental
magnitudes and events of importance to the company.

The industry forecast is based on surveys of consumers’ intention and

analysis of statistical trends is made available by trade associations or
chamber of commerce. It can give indication to a firm regarding tine
direction in which the whole industry will be moving. The company
derives its sales forecast by assuming that it will win a certain market
share.

All forecasts are built on one of the three information bases:

What people say?

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What people do?

What people have done?

Types of Forecasting:

Forecasts can be broadly classified into:

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(i) Passive Forecast and

(ii) Active Forecast. Under passive forecast prediction about future is

based on the assumption that the firm does not change the course of
its action. Under active forecast, prediction is done under the
condition of likely future changes in the actions by the firms.

From the view point of ‘time span’, forecasting may be

classified into two, viz.,:
(i) Short term demand forecasting and (ii) long term demand
forecasting. In a short run forecast, seasonal patterns are of much
importance. It may cover a period of three months, six months or one
year. It is one which provides information for tactical decisions.

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Which period is chosen depends upon the nature of business. Such a

forecast helps in preparing suitable sales policy. Long term forecasts
are helpful in suitable capital planning. It is one which provides
information for major strategic decisions. It helps in saving the
wastages in material, man hours, machine time and capacity. Planning
of a new unit must start with an analysis of the long term demand
potential of the products of the firm.

There are basically two types of forecast, viz.,:

(i) External or national group of forecast, and (ii) Internal or company
group forecast. External forecast deals with trends in general business.
It is usually prepared by a company’s research wing or by outside
consultants. Internal forecast includes all those that are related to the
operation of a particular enterprise such as sales group, production
group, and financial group. The structure of internal forecast includes
forecast of annual sales, forecast of products cost, forecast of operating
profit, forecast of taxable income, forecast of cash resources, forecast
of the number of employees, etc.

At different levels forecasting may be classified into:

(i) Macro-level forecasting,

(ii) Industry- level forecasting,

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(iii) Firm- level forecasting and

(iv) Product-line forecasting.

Macro-level forecasting is concerned with business conditions over the

whole economy. It is measured by an appropriate index of industrial
production, national income or expenditure. Industry-level forecasting
is prepared by different trade associations.

This is based on survey of consumers’ intention and analysis of

statistical trends. Firm-level forecasting is related to an individual
firm. It is most important from managerial view point. Product-line
forecasting helps the firm to decide which of the product or products
should have priority in the allocation of firm’s limited resources.

Forecast may be classified into (i) general and (ii) specific. The general
forecast may generally be useful to the firm. Many firms require
separate forecasts for specific products and specific areas, for this
general forecast is broken down into specific forecasts.

There are different forecasts for different types of products

like:
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(i) Forecasting demand for nondurable consumer goods,

(ii) Forecasting demand for durable consumer goods,

(iii) Forecasting demand for capital goods, and

(iv) Forecasting demand for new-products.

Non-Durable Consumer Goods:

These are also known as ‘single-use consumer goods’ or perishable
consumer goods. These vanish after a single act of consumption. These
include goods like food, milk, medicine, fruits, etc. Demand for these
goods depends upon household disposable income, price of the
commodity and the related goods and population and characteristics.
Symbolically,

Dc =f(y, s, p, pr) where

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Dc = the demand for commodity с

у = the household disposable income

s = population

p = price of the commodity с

pr = price of its related goods

(i) Disposable income expressed as Dc = f (y) i.e. other things being
equal, the demand for commodity с depends upon the disposable
income of the household. Disposable income of the household is
estimated after the deduction of personal taxes from the personal
income. Disposable income gives an idea about the purchasing power
of the household.
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(ii) Price, expressed as Dc = f (p, pr) i.e. other things being equal,
demand for commodity с depends upon its own price and the price of
related goods. While the demand for a commodity is inversely related
to its own price of its complements. It is positively related to its
substitutes.’ Price elasticities and cross elasticities of non-durable
consumer goods help in their demand forecasting.
(iii) Population, expressed as Dc= f (5) i.e. other things being equal,
demand for commodity с depends upon the size of population and its
composition. Besides, population can also be classified on the basis of
sex, income, literacy and social status. Demand for non-durable
consumer goods is influenced by all these factors. For the general
demand forecasting population as a whole is considered, but for
specific demand forecasting division of population according to
different characteristics proves to be more useful.

Durable Consumer Goods:

These goods can be consumed a number of times or repeatedly used
without much loss to their utility. These include goods like car, T.V.,
air-conditioners, furniture etc. After their long use, consumers have a
choice either these could be consumed in future or could be disposed
of.

The choice depends upon the following factors:

(i) Whether a consumer will go for the replacement of a durable good
or keep on using it after necessary repairs depends upon his social
status, level of money income, taste and fashion, etc. Replacement
demand tends to grow with increase in the stock of the commodity
with the consumers. The firm can estimate the average replacement
cost with the help of life expectancy table.

(ii) Most consumer durables are consumed in common by the

members of a family. For instance, T.V., refrigerator, etc. are used in
common by households. Demand forecasts for goods commonly used
should take into account the number of households rather than the
total size of population. While estimating the number of households,
the income of the household, the number of children and sex-
composition, etc. should be taken into account.
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(iii) Demand for consumer durables depends upon the availability of

allied facilities. For example, the use of T.V., refrigerator needs regular
supply of power, the use of car needs availability of fuel, etc. While
forecasting demand for consumer durables, the provision of allied
services and their cost should also be taken into account.
(iv) Demand for consumer durables is very much influenced by their
prices and their credit facilities. Consumer durables are very much
sensitive to price changes. A small fall in their price may bring large
increase in demand.

Forecasting Demand for Capital Goods:

Capital goods are used for further production. The demand for capital
good is a derived one. It will depend upon the profitability of
industries. The demand for capital goods is a case of derived demand.
In the case of particular capital goods, demand will depend on the
specific markets they serve and the end uses for which they are
bought.

The demand for textile machinery will, for instance, be determined by

the expansion of textile industry in terms of new units and
replacement of existing machinery. Estimation of new demand as well
as replacement demand is thus necessary.

Three types of data are required in estimating the demand

for capital goods:
(a) The growth prospects of the user industries must be known,

(b) the norm of consumption of the capital goods per unit of each end-
use product must be known, and

(c) the velocity of their use.

Forecasting Demand for New Products:

The methods of forecasting demand for new products are in many
ways different from those for established products. Since the product
is new to the consumers, an intensive study of the product and its
likely impact upon other products of the same group provides a key to
an intelligent projection of demand.

Joel Dean has classified a number of possible approaches as

follows:
(a) Evolutionary Approach:
It consists of projecting the demand for a new product as an outgrowth
and evolution of an existing old product.
(b) Substitute Approach:
According to this approach the new product is treated as a substitute
for the existing product or service.

(c) Growth Curve Approach:

It estimates the rate of growth and potential demand for the new
product as the basis of some growth pattern of an established product.

(d) Opinion-Poll Approach:
Under this approach the demand is estimated by direct enquiries from
the ultimate consumers.

(e) Sales Experience Approach:

According to this method the demand for the new product is estimated
by offering the new product for sale in a sample market.

(f) Vicarious Approach:

By this method, the consumers’ reactions for a new product are found
out indirectly through the specialised dealers who are able to judge the
consumers’ needs, tastes and preferences.

The various steps involved in forecasting the demand for non-durable

consumer goods are the following:

(a) First identify the variables affecting the demand for the product
and express them in appropriate forms, (b) gather relevant data or
approximation to relevant data to represent the variables, and (c) use
methods of statistical analysis to determine the most probable
relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
Forecasting Techniques:

Demand forecasting is a difficult exercise. Making estimates for future

under the changing conditions is a Herculean task. Consumers’
behaviour is the most unpredictable one because it is motivated and
influenced by a multiplicity of forces. There is no easy method or a
simple formula which enables the manager to predict the future.

Economists and statisticians have developed several methods of

demand forecasting. Each of these methods has its relative advantages
and disadvantages. Selection of the right method is essential to make
demand forecasting accurate. In demand forecasting, a judicious
combination of statistical skill and rational judgement is needed.

Mathematical and statistical techniques are essential in classifying

relationships and providing techniques of analysis, but they are in no
way an alternative for sound judgement. Sound judgement is a prime
requisite for good forecast.

The judgment should be based upon facts and the personal bias of the
forecaster should not prevail upon the facts. Therefore, a mid way
should be followed between mathematical techniques and sound
judgment or pure guess work.

The more commonly used methods of demand forecasting

are discussed below:
The various methods of demand forecasting can be summarised in the
form of a chart as shown in Table 1.
1. Opinion Polling Method:
In this method, the opinion of the buyers, sales force and experts could
be gathered to determine the emerging trend in the market.

The opinion polling methods of demand forecasting are of

three kinds:
(a) Consumer’s Survey Method or Survey of Buyer’s
Intentions:
In this method, the consumers are directly approached to disclose
their future purchase plans. I his is done by interviewing all consumers
or a selected group of consumers out of the relevant population. This
is the direct method of estimating demand in the short run. Here the
burden of forecasting is shifted to the buyer. The firm may go in for
complete enumeration or for sample surveys. If the commodity under
consideration is an intermediate product then the industries using it
as an end product are surveyed.

(i) Complete Enumeration Survey:

Under the Complete Enumeration Survey, the firm has to go for a door
to door survey for the forecast period by contacting all the households
in the area. This method has an advantage of first hand, unbiased
information, yet it has its share of disadvantages also. The major
limitation of this method is that it requires lot of resources, manpower
and time.

In this method, consumers may be reluctant to reveal their purchase

plans due to personal privacy or commercial secrecy. Moreover, at
times the consumers may not express their opinion properly or may
deliberately misguide the investigators.

(ii) Sample Survey and Test Marketing:

Under this method some representative households are selected on
random basis as samples and their opinion is taken as the generalised
opinion. This method is based on the basic assumption that the
sample truly represents the population. If the sample is the true
representative, there is likely to be no significant difference in the
results obtained by the survey. Apart from that, this method is less
tedious and less costly.
A variant of sample survey technique is test marketing. Product testing
essentially involves placing the product with a number of users for a
set period. Their reactions to the product are noted after a period of
time and an estimate of likely demand is made from the result. These
are suitable for new products or for radically modified old products for
which no prior data exists. It is a more scientific method of estimating
likely demand because it stimulates a national launch in a closely
defined geographical area.

(iii) End Use Method or Input-Output Method:

This method is quite useful for industries which are mainly producer’s
goods. In this method, the sale of the product under consideration is
projected as the basis of demand survey of the industries using this
product as an intermediate product, that is, the demand for the final
product is the end user demand of the intermediate product used in
the production of this final product.

The end user demand estimation of an intermediate product may

involve many final good industries using this product at home and
abroad. It helps us to understand inter-industry’ relations. In input-
output accounting two matrices used are the transaction matrix and
the input co-efficient matrix. The major efforts required by this type
are not in its operation but in the collection and presentation of data.

(b) Sales Force Opinion Method:

This is also known as collective opinion method. In this method,
instead of consumers, the opinion of the salesmen is sought. It is
sometimes referred as the “grass roots approach” as it is a bottom-up
method that requires each sales person in the company to make an
individual forecast for his or her particular sales territory.

These individual forecasts are discussed and agreed with the sales
manager. The composite of all forecasts then constitutes the sales
forecast for the organisation. The advantages of this method are that it
is easy and cheap. It does not involve any elaborate statistical
treatment. The main merit of this method lies in the collective wisdom
of salesmen. This method is more useful in forecasting sales of new
products.

(c) Experts Opinion Method:

This method is also known as “Delphi Technique” of investigation. The
Delphi method requires a panel of experts, who are interrogated
through a sequence of questionnaires in which the responses to one
questionnaire are used to produce the next questionnaire. Thus any
information available to some experts and not to others is passed on,
enabling all the experts to have access to all the information for
forecasting.

The method is used for long term forecasting to estimate potential

sales for new products. This method presumes two conditions: Firstly,
the panellists must be rich in their expertise, possess wide range of
knowledge and experience. Secondly, its conductors are objective in
their job. This method has some exclusive advantages of saving time
and other resources.

2. Statistical Method:
Statistical methods have proved to be immensely useful in demand
forecasting. In order to maintain objectivity, that is, by consideration
of all implications and viewing the problem from an external point of
view, the statistical methods are used.

The important statistical methods are:

(i) Trend Projection Method:
A firm existing for a long time will have its own data regarding sales
for past years. Such data when arranged chronologically yield what is
referred to as ‘time series’. Time series shows the past sales with
effective demand for a particular product under normal conditions.
Such data can be given in a tabular or graphic form for further
analysis. This is the most popular method among business firms,
partly because it is simple and inexpensive and partly because time
series data often exhibit a persistent growth trend.

Time series has got four types of components namely, Secular Trend
(T), Secular Variation (S), Cyclical Element (C), and an Irregular or
Random Variation (I). These elements are expressed by the equation
O = TSCI. Secular trend refers to the long run changes that occur as a
result of general tendency.

Seasonal variations refer to changes in the short run weather pattern

or social habits. Cyclical variations refer to the changes that occur in
industry during depression and boom. Random variation refers to the
factors which are generally able such as wars, strikes, flood, famine
and so on.
When a forecast is made the seasonal, cyclical and random variations
are removed from the observed data. Thus only the secular trend is
left. This trend is then projected. Trend projection fits a trend line to a
mathematical equation.

The trend can be estimated by using any one of the following

methods:
(a) The Graphical Method,

(b) The Least Square Method.

a) Graphical Method:
This is the most simple technique to determine the trend. All values of
output or sale for different years are plotted on a graph and a smooth
free hand curve is drawn passing through as many points as possible.
The direction of this free hand curve—upward or downward— shows
the trend. A simple illustration of this method is given in Table 2.

Table 2: Sales of Firm

Year Sales (Rs. Crore)

1995 40

1996 50

1997 44
 1998 60

1999 54

2000 62

In Fig. 1, AB is the trend line which has been drawn as free hand curve
passing through the various points representing actual sale values.

(b) Least Square Method:

Under the least square method, a trend line can be fitted to the time
series data with the help of statistical techniques such as least square
regression. When the trend in sales over time is given by straight line,
the equation of this line is of the form: y = a + bx. Where ‘a’ is the
intercept and ‘b’ shows the impact of the independent variable. We
have two variables—the independent variable x and the dependent
variable y. The line of best fit establishes a kind of mathematical
relationship between the two variables .v and y. This is expressed by
the regression у on x.
In order to solve the equation v = a + bx, we have to make
use of the following normal equations:
Σ y = na + b ΣX
Σ xy =a Σ x+b Σ  x2
(ii) Barometric Technique:
A barometer is an instrument of measuring change. This method is
based on the notion that “the future can be predicted from certain
happenings in the present.” In other words, barometric techniques are
based on the idea that certain events of the present can be used to
predict the directions of change in the future. This is accomplished by
the use of economic and statistical indicators which serve as
barometers of economic change.

Generally forecasters correlate a firm’s sales with three

series: Leading Series, Coincident or Concurrent Series and
Lagging Series:
(a) The Leading Series:
The leading series comprise those factors which move up or down
before the recession or recovery starts. They tend to reflect future
market changes. For example, baby powder sales can be forecasted by
examining the birth rate pattern five years earlier, because there is a
correlation between the baby powder sales and children of five years of
age and since baby powder sales today are correlated with birth rate
five years earlier, it is called lagged correlation. Thus we can say that
births lead to baby soaps sales.

(b) Coincident or Concurrent Series:

The coincident or concurrent series are those which move up or down
simultaneously with the level of the economy. They are used in
confirming or refuting the validity of the leading indicator used a few
months afterwards. Common examples of coinciding indicators are
G.N.P itself, industrial production, trading and the retail sector.

(c) The Lagging Series:

The lagging series are those which take place after some time lag with
respect to the business cycle. Examples of lagging series are, labour
cost per unit of the manufacturing output, loans outstanding, leading
rate of short term loans, etc.

(iii) Regression Analysis:

It attempts to assess the relationship between at least two variables
(one or more independent and one dependent), the purpose being to
predict the value of the dependent variable from the specific value of
the independent variable. The basis of this prediction generally is
historical data. This method starts from the assumption that a basic
relationship exists between two variables. An interactive statistical
analysis computer package is used to formulate the mathematical
relationship which exists.

For example, one may build up the sales model as:

Quantum of Sales = a. price + b. advertising + c. price of the rival
products + d. personal disposable income +u

Where a, b, c, d are the constants which show the effect of

corresponding variables as sales. The constant u represents the effect
of all the variables which have been left out in the equation but having
effect on sales. In the above equation, quantum of sales is the
dependent variable and the variables on the right hand side of the
equation are independent variables. If the expected values of the
independent variables are substituted in the equation, the quantum of
sales will then be forecasted.

The regression equation can also be written in a

multiplicative form as given below:
Quantum of Sales = (Price)a + (Advertising)b+ (Price of the rival
products) c + (Personal disposable income Y + u
In the above case, the exponent of each variable indicates the
elasticities of the corresponding variable. Stating the independent
variables in terms of notation, the equation form is QS = P° 8. Ao42 . R°.83.
Y2°.68. 40
Then we can say that 1 per cent increase in price leads to 0.8 per cent
change in quantum of sales and so on.

If we take logarithmic form of the multiple equation, we can

write the equation in an additive form as follows:
log QS = a log P + b log A + с log R + d log Yd + log u
In the above equation, the coefficients a, b, c, and d represent the
elasticities of variables P, A, R and Yd respectively.
The co-efficient in the logarithmic regression equation are very useful
in policy decision making by the management.

(iv) Econometric Models:

Econometric models are an extension of the regression technique
whereby a system of independent regression equation is solved. The
requirement for satisfactory use of the econometric model in
forecasting is under three heads: variables, equations and data.

The appropriate procedure in forecasting by econometric methods is

model building. Econometrics attempts to express economic theories
in mathematical terms in such a way that they can be verified by
statistical methods and to measure the impact of one economic
variable upon another so as to be able to predict future events.

Utility of Forecasting:
Forecasting reduces the risk associated with business fluctuations
which generally produce harmful effects in business, create
unemployment, induce speculation, discourage capital formation and
reduce the profit margin. Forecasting is indispensable and it plays a
very important part in the determination of various policies. In
modem times forecasting has been put on scientific footing so that the
risks associated with it have been considerably minimised and the
chances of precision increased.

Forecasts in India:
In most of the advanced countries there are specialised agencies. In
India businessmen are not at all interested in making scientific
forecasts. They depend more on chance, luck and astrology. They are
highly superstitious and hence their forecasts are not correct.
Sufficient data are not available to make reliable forescasts. However,
statistics alone do not forecast future conditions. Judgment,
experience and knowledge of the particular trade are also necessary to
make proper analysis and interpretation and to arrive at sound
conclusions.

Conclusion:
Decision support systems consist of three elements: decision,
prediction and control. It is, of course, with prediction that marketing
forecasting is concerned. The forecasting of sales can be regarded as a
system, having inputs apprises and an output.

This simplistic view serves as a useful measure for the analysis of the
true worth of sales forecasting as an aid to management. In spite of all
these no one can predict future economic activity with certainty.
Forecasts are estimates about which no one can be sure.

Criteria of a Good Forecasting Method:

There are thus, a good many ways to make a guess about future sales.
They show contrast in cost, flexibility and the adequate skills and
sophistication. Therefore, there is a problem of choosing the best
method for a particular demand situation.

There are certain economic criteria of broader applicability.

They are:
(i) Accuracy, (ii) Plausibility, (iii) Durability, (iv) Flexibility, (v)
Availability, (vi) Economy, (vii) Simplicity and (viii) Consistency.

(i) Accuracy:
The forecast obtained must be accurate. How is an accurate forecast
possible? To obtain an accurate forecast, it is essential to check the
accuracy of past forecasts against present performance and of present
forecasts against future performance. Accuracy cannot be tested by
precise measurement but buy judgment.

(ii) Plausibility:
The executive should have good understanding of the technique
chosen and they should have confidence in the techniques used.
Understanding is also needed for a proper interpretation of results.
Plausibility requirements can often improve the accuracy of results.

(iii) Durability:
Unfortunately, a demand function fitted to past experience may back
cost very greatly and still fall apart in a short time as a forecaster. The
durability of the forecasting power of a demand function depends
partly on the reasonableness and simplicity of functions fitted, but
primarily on the stability of the understanding relationships measured
in the past. Of course, the importance of durability determines the
allowable cost of the forecast.

(iv) Flexibility:
Flexibility can be viewed as an alternative to generality. A long lasting
function could be set up in terms of basic natural forces and human
motives. Even though fundamental, it would nevertheless be hard to
measure and thus not very useful. A set of variables whose co-efficient
could be adjusted from time to time to meet changing conditions in
more practical way to maintain intact the routine procedure of
forecasting.

(v) Availability:
Immediate availability of data is a vital requirement and the search for
reasonable approximations to relevance in late data is a constant
strain on the forecasters patience. The techniques employed should be
able to produce meaningful results quickly. Delay in result will
adversely affect the managerial decisions.

(vi) Economy:
Cost is a primary consideration which should be weighted against the
importance of the forecasts to the business operations. A question may
arise: How much money and managerial effort should be allocated to
obtain a high level of forecasting accuracy? The criterion here is the
economic consideration.

(vii) Simplicity:
Statistical and econometric models are certainly useful but they are
intolerably complex. To those executives who have a fear of
mathematics, these methods would appear to be Latin or Greek. The
procedure should, therefore, be simple and easy so that the
management may appreciate and understand why it has been adopted
by the forecaster.

(viii) Consistency:
The forecaster has to deal with various components which are
independent. If he does not make an adjustment in one component to
bring it in line with a forecast of another, he would achieve a whole
which would appear consistent.

Conclusion:
In fine, the ideal forecasting method is one that yields returns over
cost with accuracy, seems reasonable, can be formalised for reasonably
long periods, can meet new circumstances adeptly and can give up-to-
date results. The method of forecasting is not the same for all
products.

There is no unique method for forecasting the sale of any commodity.

The forecaster may try one or the other method depending upon his
objective, data availability, the urgency with which forecasts are
needed, resources he intends to devote to this work and type of
commodity whose demand he wants to forecast.
by Taboola
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by Taboola
 LATEST

 Consumer Decision Making

 Diffusion of Innovation
 Rural Marketing Strategies
 Strategic Management Process

 Levels of Management

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 Meaning:

 Types of Forecasting:

 Forecasting Techniques:

 Criteria of a Good Forecasting Method:

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