Studies in Indian Place Names

(UGC Care Journal) ISSN: 2394-3114

Vol-40-Issue-69-March-2020

A Critical Analysis to comprehend Panic buying

behaviour of Mumbaikar’s in COVID-19 era.
Dr. C. K. Singh
Professor, Dean, Faculty of Arts Humanities & Communication, CSMU, Navi Mumbai
Dr. Pushpendu Rakshit
Associate Professor, Faculty of Commerce & Management, Mumbai

ABSTRACT
This study aims to sightsee the contemporary situation of our motherland during the evil spread of
pandemic COVID 19 ie. Corona virus which brought turbulent times to globe and even to us. Indian
Government has Lockdown the nation for 21 days to avoid Covid 19 community spread. Cities athwart
India saw a haste to buy grocery and other essential stuffs on the first day of a countrywide lockdown
on 25th March 2020, Wednesday even as Covid-19 infections rose to 606, including 10 deaths
(Hindustan Times). With stories of privation and unease pouring in — of the predicament of migrant
labourers and of trepidations that some pharmacies and groceries in Mumbai might run out of stock —
the government stepped in to confirm essential services are not intervallic. Since March 2 when the
second wave of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases was stated in Delhi and Hyderabad followed by
Mumbai, India has not reported any case of community transmission, but the government is employed
to control cases of pivotal outbursts in some states.
But during this period many businesses sounded opportunistic for selling their products and that tends
towards Black ocean strategy of doing business. The following study circulates around the impacts of
such situation on masses of Mumbai where exist extreme segregation in living standards. The study is a
review on secondary data leading to be a curtain raiser on the dark side of panic buying followed by
misconceptions in markets by imbibing black ocean strategy and explorative in nature. Suggestive
measurements are drawn on the basis of personal observations and experiential learning.
Keywords: COVID 19, Corona virus pandemic, Mumbai, Panic buying, Black ocean strategy,
customers buying perspectives,

INTRODUCTION
Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to inhabitants on 25 March 2020, Wednesday to aid to nine
families throughout the 21-day national lockdown and warned of stern action against those misbehaving
with individuals on the front lines of the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. In this combat against
coronavirus, 130 crore (1.3 billion) inhabitants are the charioteers. With their sustenance and guidance,
the country will win the war against the virus,‖ he said. The sectors like Production house, Demand and
supply, Low consumption, export and import and millions of low-wage earners are likely to bear the
brunt of the economic impact of COVID 19. Specially are aged people without support, rickshaw
pullers, daily wagers, casual workers, foot path shopkeepers, informal sector workers, beggars, etc.
When modes of transport and trading routes and ports get disturbed, the supply chain gets affected.
When the chain of production, supply, distribution and consumption get disturbed, the invisible hand of
market gets disabled. A majority of workers are not reporting for work and migrant workers are
returning to their native places which could result in mass stoppage of production. The 21-days national
lockdown to avoid the spread of Pandemic could result in daily loss amount Rs 6.3-7.2 lakh crore,
estimate by Care Ratings.
Panic buying transpires when consumers buy oddly bulky volumes of a product in anticipation of, or
after, a disaster or perceived disaster, or in anticipation of a large price increase or scarcity. Panic
buying is a type of herd behaviour. Panic-buying can lead to genuine scarcities regardless of whether
the risk of a shortage is real or perceived; the latter situation is an instance of self-fulfilling prophecy.
Psychologists view control as a fundamental human need. With a disease that’s highly communicable
and can turn deadly, this epidemic disrupts a sense of control in fundamental ways. Unless policy

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Vol-40-Issue-69-March-2020

makers can find a way to reinstate that feeling, the cycle of panic buying, hoarding and scarcity only
stands to escalate.
Analogous panic buying often heralds snow storms and typhoons, but the universal nature of the
coronavirus’ spread — along with access to information facilitated by social media — means hysteria
today is traveling in ways not seen in earlier epidemics, like the 2003 SARS outburst instigated by a
alike virus. In various neighbourhoods in Mumbai, crude vegetable and fruit shops were also shut either
due to lack of lucidity on the lockdown over coronavirus pandemic or they could not obtain items from
the wholesale bazaars. The deed of buying large quantities of a particular product or commodity due to
sudden fears of a forthcoming shortage or price rise is termed as Panic buying. Buyers have to wait for
around 30 minutes for my turn to enter the store to buy essential items. It is because they were letting
only two to three persons to go inside the store at a time. The rest would have to wait outside the shop
in a queue, upholding a distance of about three feet. Many items such as tetra packs of milk,
confectionary products, tissue papers, butter, flour, vegetables were not existing the local grocery
outlets (kiranas), shop floors, D-marts, Big Bazaar supermarket etc. An alike state of affairs prevailed at
other grocery stores. Shop owners and the administration took different measures, from asking visitors
to mandatorily wear masks, to marking spots outdoor shops for customers to stand, to safeguarding
social distancing to prevent the blowout of the coronavirus.
Shopkeepers supposed this was because of panic buying on 24 March 2020, Tuesday evening itself, just
after the announcement of a comprehensive lockdown by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
At certain outlets, people grumbled of deprived supply because of which indispensable items such as
milk, wheat, pulses, oil, biscuits, milk products and drinking water jars were either out of stock or were
fast waning. However, some foodstuffs such as vegetables and fruits continued to be supplied but due to
lock down impact may not be reaching to shops. There exist also a chance of black marketing or
likeness of purposeful inflation. Some storekeepers grumbled their traders couldn’t turn up either due to
restrictions on the transportations. This supplementary added fuel to the deceptive of information that
things are running out of stock from market due to lack of supply. In spite of announcements made from
the Government’s end said state’s food and civil supplies minister Shri Chhagan Bhujbal, regarding
incessant supply of every product notwithstanding restrictions on movement of vehicles, the supply of
essential merchandises would be unpretentious, still there exist deficiency in supply of day-to-day
needed products. The preliminary panic buying was lone for hygiene products, soaps, exclusively hand
sanitisers, but retailers say it has dribbled down to food after most offices allowed employees to WFH
(work from home) that added fuel as rate of consumption increased. "Sales of categories such as
Maggie, canned food, hand washers, tissues, wet tissues, sugar, ghee, butter, noodles, biscuits, rice,
wheat oils, sanitisers, floor & glass cleaners & hygiene products have gushed uphill of 20%," Nature’s
Basket MD said. Vendors and consumer goods firms adage their average daily sales more than double
on Thursday as consumers hurried to buy essentials ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address
to the nation on the state of affairs arising out of coronavirus outbreak and the efforts to battle it.
―Feasting which was happening at three distinct places—workplaces or canteen, food court or cafeterias
or bistros and home—is now amassing mostly at home, given this scenario,‖ said Devendra Chawla,
managing director of Spencer’s Retail and Nature’s Basket. The country’s major dairy brand Amul said
sales of groupings such as milk in Tetra Packs, cheese, ghee, ice creams and butter have seen gigantic
spurt over the earlier one week and demand is up and about anywhere between 25% and 50% across
general trade and modern trade. ―That is also for the reason that consumers want innocuous packaged
foods and are cooking at home,‖ said RS Sodhi, managing director of Gujarat Cooperative Milk
Marketing Federation that owns Amul.
Numerous customers are over acquiring as panicked due to the inappropriate information. Thus this
leads to sort of creation of black ocean where the market is moving around misleading facts for
availability of products and seems to be under influence of furnished black magic. This are actually
tools that are undertaken by various companies to fight against the competition in the market (Bresser,
2014) but at current scenario is causing panic buying leading to shortage of stuffs or over buying. In
order to survive with these snags, the marketers are anticipated to adapt certain strategies to pursue in
their business (Dibbs et al., 2015). It can be easily expected that the success of these companies is a
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(UGC Care Journal) ISSN: 2394-3114
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result of the various business strategies accepted by the businesses in their journey (Schewe & Smith,
2013). These tactics are used in business by shopkeepers / businesses for long term organizational
sustainability and to face or deviate from the competition. Based on situational analysis, it is observed
that some of the businesses especially the grocery, eatables and medical use a new type of strategy for
sustainability at least for short term to overcome their high intensity problems and to get quick relief
from the problems. In this study we have comprehend such a strategy and christened it as "Black Ocean
Strategy" in turbulent times of COVID 19 leading to panic buying. Some of the strategies to be name
are customer retention, comparative advantage in terms of improving quality or price of the product so
that the company would be able to improve the satisfying level of the customers (Moriarty & Kosnik,
2012).
LITERATURE REVIEW
Our exploration is related to the prevailing literature on strategic consumer behavior (e.g., Aviv and
Pazgal 2008, Liu and van Ryzin 2010, van Ryzin and Liu 2008, Shen and Su 2007, Su and Zhang 2008,
Su 2010, and Allon and Bassamboo 2011). Su (2010) studies dynamic pricing problem where
consumers may stock up the product at current prices for future consumption and that is mostly seen
during contingencies.
Our research is also associated to the investigation on supply uncertainty. There are three approaches to
understand supply uncertainty: random lead-time, random yield, and supply disruption. The random
lead-time model assumes that the order lead-time is a random variable (e.g., Song and Zipkin 1996). In
a random yield model, the realized supply level is a random function of the order/capacity level (see
Yano and Lee 1995, Gerchak and Parlar 1990, Parlar and Wang 1993, Swaminathan and Shanthikumar
1999, Federgruen and Yang 2008, Kazaz 2008, Wang et al. 2010). Supply disruption models the
uncertainty of supply as one of two states: ―up‖ or ―down‖ (e.g.,Tomlin (2006), Yang et al. (2009)). The
orders are fulfilled on time and in full when the supplier is ―up‖, and no order can be fulfilled when the
supplier is ―down‖. We have considered the approach Supply disruption models as during outbreak of
COVID19 which leaded to complete lockdown in Mumbai there existed shorted of needed products and
followed by panic buying. Snyder et al. (2010) provides a comprehensive analysis of the existing
supply disruption investigation.
There are very limited papers in the literature that explicitly consider the impact of supply uncertainty
on customer demand. Rong et al. (2008) considers a one-shot game interaction between an unreliable
supplier and multiple retailers. The retailers may bloat their order quantities creating inflation in order
to obtain their desired allocation from the supplier, a behavior known as the rationing game. Thus today
there exist a competition among the retail stores as at times they compete with near by rivals or some
time sells the products to customers with close proximity or most of the times at higher rates. Hypes are
created by the sellers that results in panic buying.
OBJECTIVES
1. To understand impact of complete lockdown resulting in uprising panic buying situations in
Mumbai.
2. To explore psychological impact on buyers in Mumbai during pandemic outbreak of COVID19
leading to exhaust of daily need stocks.
3. To study appearance of the current Mumbai market as black ocean.
Mumbai market a prey of panic buying during COVID 19 pandemic pretending to be a black
ocean:
 Viraj Shah, who runs a well-stocked kirana store in suburban Mumbai says footfalls in his store
have doubled over the past one week. "Consumers are buying products likes soaps, sanitisers and
handwash in bulk. In fact, I have run out of stock. People are also buying atta, oil and biscuits in
bulk as they are scared that shops will shut down due to the corona virus scare."
 A bottle of hand sanitiser, usually priced at Rs 30, was being sold for Rs 100 at pharmacies in
Ashok Nagar, alleged a customer on Twitter.

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 "A large quantity of fake sanitisers has been seized. We will ensure that law takes its due course
over any irregularity related to it," said BN Singh, District Magistrate, Gautam Buddh Nagar.
These were not genuine products, confirmed Sub-Divisional Magistrate Rajeev Rai, who led the
raid on Saturday.
 "Fake sanitisers are more dangerous as these have side-effects on the human skin. People are using
sanitisers to clean their hands when they cannot use soap and water. Also, a large amount of
sanitisers are being used to sanitise public places. But if the sanitisers are fake or don't have the
efficiency, it will be harmful. You never know which chemicals have been used in them," said Dr.
Bobby Balotra, Pulmonologist at Sir Ganga Ram Hospital.
 Shares of 3M India extended their rally to the third straight session on Thursday after reports that
the sale of face masks, sanitizer, and gloves have soared in the country amid the coronavirus fears.
 3M India, a subsidiary of 3M Corporation, manufactures over 8,000 products including personal
healthcare and safety products such as face masks and sanitizers. The scrip jumped nearly 21 per
cent to an intraday high of Rs 24,348 on March 5 against Rs 20,137.30 on March 2. 3M India, a
subsidiary of 3M Corporation, manufactures over 8,000 products including personal healthcare and
safety products such as face masks and sanitizers. According to reports, face masks and hand
sanitizers have vanished from chemist shops in many areas of the national capital and adjoining
towns as people resorted to panic buying amid the coronavirus outbreak.
 Some chemist shops that have stocks of masks available with them have jacked up prices, selling
items that were available earlier for Rs 150 at Rs 300, stated a report.
Amid a coronavirus scare in Mumbai, the demand for surgical and N95 masks increased manifold
in Mumbai on Tuesday with some people claiming they were being sold at rates much higher than
the actual cost.
 People claimed surgical masks which usually sell for Rs 10 were being sold for Rs 40 or higher,
and N95 masks which sell for around Rs 150 were being sold for up to Rs 500. "If a pharmacy sold
10-15 masks daily on an average, today the demand went up to 100.
 "There is the simple principle of demand and supply. And in situations like these when panic binds
people the tendency of hoarding also goes up. Thus happens at every level, customers, retailers,
wholesalers," Jain said.
 "The government should have a system wherein the prices and supply of essential products in a
situation like this could be controlled," he added. Sales of hand sanitizer are skyrocketing due to
the coronavirus, leading to rationing and price hikes. ―Price of a surgical mask, which was earlier
selling for Re 1, has skyrocketed to Rs 15 now,‖ said Kailash Gupta, the president of All India
Chemists and Distributors Association. Future Group president (food business) Kamaldeep Singh
said while there is stock, there is pressure in pipeline for sanitiser. ―Brands have to ramp up
production. We are confident to meet demand for handwash and moving stock of sanitiser from
other markets to cities where demand is huge,‖ he said.
 Industry executives said sanitiser manufacturers like Reckitt Benckiser and Himalaya Drugs are
expanding production. Himalaya Drug Company CEO Philipe Haydon confirmed production hike
saying sales is up ten times following the outbreak. ITC spokesperson said there is ―adequate
supply‖ of Savlon hygiene products.
 Mayank Shah, Parle Products' category head said, "Panic buying is happening and likely to
continue for at least one-two weeks more. We have received frenzied calls from the trade to supply
stock since the pipeline has become almost dry. There is 15-20 per cent increase over usual sales."
 Grofers CEO Albinder Dindsha said he expects the frontline sanitiser brands to be back in stock
soon. He said Delhi-NCR and Hyderabad together witnessed a five-fold surge in demand in the last
three days which is the highest increase in sales in any category in over six months.

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 Reliance Retail CEO (grocery) Damodar Mall said whenever there is uncertainty of this kind;
customers tend to trust organised supermarkets, since they know there will be no change in pricing.
 An official of a Fortis Hospital-run pharmacy store in Gurgaon said there is no supply of sanitisers
from manufacturers since Tuesday even after the store sought urgent replenishment. ―There is huge
demand not only from people, but also from the airport, hospitals and offices,‖ he said.
 Kamlesh, who has one pharmacies in Sector 5 CBD Belapur , said people kept visiting his shops
all throughout . Similar statements were given by two of the very old pharmacies at sector four
market area at the heart of CBD Belapur, they said over 40 years they have never seen such
demand and panic buying so far.
 "Necessary permissions on account of licensing and storage of ethyl alcohol/extra neutral alcohol
(ENA)/ethanol may be accorded by the state government agencies to sanitizer companies up to
their installed capacity without any quota restriction on supply," the Ministry of Consumer Affairs
has stated in a circular.

Exhibit 1 - Panic-buying-goes-a-notch-up-ahead-of-pm-Modis-address
Source: economictimes.indiatimes
Impacts of COVID 19 and lock down on Mumbai
Pandemic not only wedged the manufacturing and consumable industries, but also luxury goods,
airlines, tourism, leisure, and hospitality. Keeping workforces away from work and consumers away
from consumption both reduce economic activity. Fighting the crisis will mean sharply higher debt
levels everywhere; India has taken effort to resolve the COVID-2019 menace through social distancing
and through collective efforts. The effect of economic on Household, International market, financial
crisis, Import export, Globalization, Taxes, Investment, Capital market. There will changes in Fiscal
policies, Monetary, Financial regulation policies, Social insurance policies, Industry policies and Trade
policies. The economic damage could be persistent. The most affected are vulnerable sector or Poorest
of society who is depended on daily wage to their living and this measure by government might bring
some relief to them. At a time of Pandemic, Government proactive in financial commitments will help
the most vulnerable customers of our society.

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Exhibit – 2: Block diagram of various steps involved in adoption of black ocean strategy with reference
to panic buying in COVID19
This exhibit displays that at initial problem must be identified either proactively or post math on same
can be done. Then probable solution for the same must be identified with alternatives. At times
businesses follow strategies by taking risk and making their ethics at stake for competing the heavy
pressure at the times of exigencies, this can be termed as black ocean strategy and market looks like a
black ocean. It is an ancient strategy used in ancient philosophy as Atharva Veda where illusions is
created for either to reach the goal or to create hype in the market. It is a short cut plan to win the game
and does not exist for a very long time. There include unethical or misleading activities which stands
for a very short span of time.

Table 1- Factors deciding Black Ocean strategy in business during COVID19

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Studies in Indian Place Names
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Vol-40-Issue-69-March-2020

Preventive measures taken by the Government Authorities, Establishments and Corporates:

 On April 1, 2020, the Minister of State for Personnel and Public Grievances Dr Jitendra Singh
launched the National Monitoring Dashboard on COVID-19. The dashboard is to be developed and
implemented by DARPG (Department of Administrative Reforms and Public Grievances). The
main objective of the dash is quick and timely implementations of COVID-19 response and
containment activities.
 A technical team has been formed to handle the public grievances on priority basis. The team will
receive grievances from all the states, union territories and ministries as well. The portal is to
address all types of grievances such as complaints regarding violation of lock down, essential
supplies, quarantine facilities, examinations, rescheduling of interests of loans and requests of
evacuation from foreign countries.
 Around 8.3 crore BPL families will be given free cylinders for the next three months. Women’s
self-help groups will be eligible for Rs 20 lakh collateral free loans up from the earlier Rs 10 lakh.
 For instance, Avenue Supermarts, which runs DMart, is letting consumers enter their stores in
batches through token system to help safe distancing, besides monitoring body temperatures of
customers, sanitising their hands, and frequently cleaning trolleys, cash counter and shopping
baskets
 Round Table India has launched a free home delivery service for senior citizen living alone. Few
contact person details are shared. Vashi Vaibhav Sachdev: 9933676707 | Kamlesh jain:
9820101606 Thane Priyank Agarwal: 9321324242 Andheri East Amith Dhanraj Bardia:
9320089690
 MUMBAI (ICIS)--India has asked its state governments to ensure continuous availability of
ethanol/ ethyl alcohol/ extra neutral alcohol to manufacturers of hand sanitizers to meet the surge
in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.
 One must stock only the essential contingency product/s and must not thrive on to over stock, so
others can also avail same.
 One must avoid fabrication of information leading to panic and create a black ocean in existing
market.
CONCLUSION
We studies consumer panic buying under supply disruptions and explored how the retailer should adapt
inventory and deal with to together demand-side and supply-side challenges during such contingencies.
First, we analyse the main drivers for consumer panic buying. We show that a consumer will hoard
product for future consumption only if his valuation of the product is overhead a threshold. Moreover,
we find that consumers are more likely to hoard when the price of the product or the consumer holding
cost is low, or when the consumers are risk averse, or less certain about obtaining the product in the
succeeding period at present situation. Second, we understand how such situations lead to black ocean
and marketers are using black ocean strategy as to create a hype regarding lack of supply or stating
unethical practices and up to an extent even increasing rates. We display that when consumers are risk
neutral, the retailer ought carry enough safety inventory to cover all demands in forthcoming period if
both the supplier dependability and consumers’ desirability of the product is lower than certain
threshold values; otherwise, he should carry no safety inventory at all. On the other hand, when
consumers are risk loath, keeping safety inventory to please only partial of the demand is optimal under
some situations. Furthermore, we show that panic buying must be controlled and one must stop over
piling of products so others can also have a share of it.
RELEVANCE AND UTILITY OF THE STUDY
1. This study would be helpful to the citizens that they should avoid being panic at such situations.
2. This would bring attention of administrative bodies towards such creation of black ocean markets.

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3. This study is an eye opener drawing attention towards marketers and retailers that they shall not
promote such misleading or unethical situations which leads to panic and adds disturbance to the
existing problems times.
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