WINNING STRATEGIES
FOR TRADING SPORTS
Tony Hargraves
www.TheSportsTrader.com
 Contents
Welcome 4

Systems vs Strategies 6

Strategy 01 9

Strategy 02 12

Strategy 03 18

Strategy 04 21

Strategy 05 26

Strategy 06 28

Strategy 07 32

Strategy 08 37

Strategy 09 41

Strategy 10 45

Strategy 11 50

Strategy 12 - 14 51

Strategy 15 53

Strategy 16 55

Conclusion 56

Links 57
 WINNING STRATEGIES FOR TRADING SPORTS Copyright © Tony Hargraves 2014


This ebook first published in 2014, updated for 2016.

The moral right of Tony Hargraves to be identified as the author of this work has been
asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior
permission in writing of Tony Hargraves.

For more information or contact please visit http://thesportstrader.com

 Welcome
My name is Tony Hargraves, known as ‘The Badger’ in trading circles, and I
have been a full time sports trader since 2008 after spending two years as
a part time trader. The information in this book is a compilation of my now
10 years of self-taught experience on Betfair and betting exchanges.

It contains every technique I use to trade on a daily basis on just about any
sport that is televised live. As part of my journey I became the main
provider of training courses for Betfair UK through my position at Centaur
and I also did courses for Betfair Australia in 2011 in Brisbane, Sydney and
Melbourne.

During my time in London for Centaur we launched the world’s first sports
trading hedge fund, trained hundreds of Betfair traders and hopefully
launched many successful sports trading careers. I left there in 2011 and
returned to Australia to set up a sports trading business and now in 2016, I
am back in the UK trading each day, providing training via group courses in
major cities or individual training in the privacy of your home or mine,
should you wish to see my set up.

You can get all the information you require on where I am and what I am
doing by visiting the website TheSportsTrader.com and you can email me
with any questions you have with anything arising in the book.

A couple of things to note……

One thing you will notice is the screen shots show trades in both $AU and
£GBP. This is because I have an English account and an Australian account.
So some of the trades will show $ and some will be in £.

On a similar theme, when I am explaining trades, or strategies to reduce

losses, the currency is irrelevant and I simply quote amounts.

Another thing to be aware of when looking at the screenshots is you will

see random bet amounts and you will no doubt think, why did he bet that
amount? There are two reasons. Firstly I may be betting to a fixed liability,
say 5% of my bank so if my bank was £1841 and I wanted to risk 5% my

Page ! 4 of !57
stake would be £92.05. So if I was laying at even money, you would see a
lay of £92.05 and think, why that amount? Now you know!

The second reason is more common. Say I have tried to lay for £200 @
even money (2.00) and I get £92.05 matched and the price moves up as
someone puts in a lay @ 2.02. No more of my money will be matched and
if that is the highest price I am prepared to lay at, then I will not get filled
on any more of my order. I hope that makes sense and clears up any
random amounts you see.

Obviously the random exit figures are normal, they are the amount
required to hedge or equalise the profit across every outcome.

I hope you enjoying reading what I do each day to extract money from the
markets, it is far from complicated, and I am sure you will be surprised at
just how easy it can be.

Page ! 5 of !57
 Systems vs
Strategies
I am often asked to provide information on all the “systems” I use. The fact
is I don’t use any. I believe there is no standalone system as such that will
win consistently just by applying it. Every match, every race and every
sport is different and the markets will react differently every time so
applying a constant theory will not work every time. But I have come up
with some strategies that work most of the time, well above 50% of the
time and so by looking at them on a yearly basis, or even a five yearly
basis, you can be assured of coming out in front using them, unless there is
a major fundamental change in circumstances. Which can happen, and I will
give you some examples so you will be aware of them when

they happen.

I will endeavour to examine various sports and the strategies used to

extract money from the markets. All of these work, although of course not
all of the time. Nothing works 100% of the time and as with normal trading
you will experience losses and losing days. Don’t get disheartened with the
strategy, just keep at it and stick to proper risk management, attitude

and discipline.

I will examine Football, Cricket, Racing (both horse and hound), Tennis,
Motor Racing, Rugby League and Rugby Union.

One thing you must know up front and remember, sports trading is very
simple. You are just betting on the outcome of a sporting event. And with
racing we are betting on the outcome of a horse race. A monkey with a pin
could do it. But the monkey wouldn’t make money. We have to find an
edge. Something that works more for us often than not, and is value for
money. We have to find something that the other monkeys are not looking
at, and that involves us digging a bit deeper into the realms of analysis.

Page ! 6 of !57
The secret (if there is one) to making money at sports trading and racing
comes down to a few things that on the surface are very simple, but if you
don’t do them well, then you are not going to come out in front.

Firstly – Analysis. You must be a good analyst (or know one and get their
analysis) because with bad analysis you will lose. With no analysis, you will
lose, because then you are guessing or going off your gut instinct which
will not win long term.

Secondly – Strategy. Ok it is fine to know that something is most likely to

happen but what strategy will you use to make the most of that
information? It is all well and good knowing a certain football team have a
second half goal 94% of the time (analysis) but what are you going to do
about it? The easy answer is bet on a second half goal! But what market can
you do that in? And what price should you bet at?

Page ! 7 of !57
 FOOTBALL
I WILL START WITH THE MOST POPULAR
SPORT FOR TRADING, & THE ONE I DO
70% OF MY TRADING ON.

MANY STRATEGIES ARE IN USE FOR

FOOTBALL MATCHES, HOWEVER I ONLY
EVER USE FOUR OR FIVE.

Systems versus Strategies / 8!

 Strategy 01 Lay the Draw

It is the most basic strategy to use but quite effective. It has been around
a few years now and is not the most rewarding on a risk/reward basis, but it
is great when you have an open game and can’t find a winner, like a
Manchester Derby or Liverpool v Manchester United.

In English Premier League and Championship matches, I use a strategy

called “Lay the Draw”. As the name suggests, you lay the draw in matches
where the sides are reasonably evenly matched (meaning no odds on
teams) and the draw is priced no higher than 5.00. Most matches have the
draw priced around 3.50 and the reason is because about 28% of these
games end in a draw. But that means 72% don’t and a far great percentage
are not a draw at some stage which means we can take advantage. As there
are goals in 92% of matches in the top two tiers of English football, (only
8% of games end 0-0) this system has a brilliant strike rate and works year
after year.

You lay the draw before the start of the match, and then when a goal is
scored by either side, you BACK the draw and take a tidy profit. You can
then let that run as a free bet, if you feel the match will end in a draw, or
hedge the profit to equalise the profit across all three results if you think it
won’t end in a draw.

But you must pick the right games and when you see teams like Everton
and Tottenham have drawn six of the last 12 times they have met (50%),
you have to leave them alone. So you would not do that game. Manchester
United and Liverpool have drawn two of the past 34 meetings (5.8%) - I do
this trade every time they play each other.

Looking at the stats above, you can see that you need astute match
selection but with just a little basic head to head research, you can
increase your strike rate by being more accurate and very selective.

Page ! 9 of !57
Here are some examples of the strategy working perfectly.

Page ! 10 of !57
In the example below, rather than a straight lay and then backing at a
higher price, I have done what we call “averaging” to exit the trade. So
after laying at 3.25 and then Manchester United scoring, I exited part of the
trade at 7.40, and as United were dominant, I just took small chunks as the
price started to rise. I took some more at 8.20, some more at 8.80 and a
final trade at 12.50.

As only 5.8% of the past 34 matches have been drawn,

the draw price should be about 17, so when it is 3.25,
you can lay it knowing that if the next 10 games follow
the same pattern, you are going to clean up.

The difference is this. Had I exited the trade fully at 7.40, I would have
made a profit of $532 after commission. By doing it the way I have, I made
$635 and so increased my profit by $120. If you feel the trade is really
going your way, and the team leading is really superior, just chip away as
the price of the draw goes up, to maximise that profit. The downside of
course, is if Liverpool equalise then you are back in a bit of trouble. 


Page ! 11 of !57
 Strategy 02
Lay the Any Unquoted OR Correct Score

Lay the Any Unquoted (AU).

This strategy needed updating for season 2015/16 as Betfair have changed
the way the market operates. There used to be 17 outcomes in the market,
and now there are 19.

The change is to what used to be called ‘Any Unquoted’. The market has 16
outcomes with every possible score from 0-0 to 3-3 and then the 17th
outcome WAS ‘Any Unquoted’.

However, ‘Any Unquoted’ has been removed, and three other selections
were added. They are:

• Any other Home Win

• Any other Away Win

• Any other Draw

The old way used to combine the three outcomes and give you one price.

Looking at the game between Sion and Liverpool as an example.

We have the prices of the three outcomes.

Any other Home Win at 65 (1.5%)

Any other Away Win at 24 (4.17%)

Any other Draw at 600 (0.17%)

In total those three outcomes were a combined 5.87% which had it been
calculated the old way, would have given Any Unquoted a price of 17.00 on
Betfair.

What it does now, is gives you better odds if you can correctly predict
which of the three outcomes will eventuate.

Page ! 12 of !57
So say you felt Liverpool will win this game and score four goals (or more)
then you would back Any other Away Win @ 24 rather than being forced to
bundle the other two outcomes together and taking a price of 17.

So the new rules are excellent for backers of Any Other outcomes but not
so good for layers. What that means now is our correct score strategy has
been made quite a bit more risky.

Whereas we used to be able to lay Any Unquoted at prices like 8.00 and
exit after 30 minutes at 16.00 now we are starting the match at 16 and that
makes the risk v reward nowhere near worth it from a lay perspective but it
makes it worth looking at from a backing perspective.

As mentioned I don’t think that is a viable option now as they have made
the laying too risky.

I would now look for games where I think it is possible one side could get
four goals and back that outcome and look to exit with a profit should
they score two goals in the first half.

Lay the Correct Score

A Correct Score strategy is for when I expect a high scoring game. I lay 0-0,
0-1 and 1-0 and if one goal is scored I have two winning bets and one still
in play.

If there is a second goal, and it won’t matter which team score it, I have
made three successful lay bets. As I had expected a high scoring game, I
would expect that one of two things would happen. Either one side scores
two goals meaning I win all the bets or both teams score one goal means I
also win all three bets.

If it is early, and you have a very high scoring side like Barcelona, you can
watch and see if they are on their game creating chances. You can then lay
the current score after 10 minutes and then a goal from either side wins.

Page ! 13 of !57
An example of this strategy, (current score after 10 minutes) in the trade
below, Sevilla scored a shock opener at the Nou Camp and you could see
the response was going to be swift.

A quick lay of 0-1 reaped the prize.

Alternatively, you can go for shorter prices and shorter time spans. There
are a load of matches in the SPL (Scotland) that have goals to try this, like
games involving Celtic and Rangers - although until Rangers return to the
top tier in 2016 there is no liquidity in their matches to do trades like this
other than for small amounts. But Championship games are good as they
are decent matches for goals.

You just need to assess the teams that average 1.5 goals per game and
when they play other teams that average above 1.5 goals per game, then
you are onto a potential match to trade. Then just check they are not knee
deep in snow or severe wind and rain, and you have the prospects of a
winning trade!

Page ! 14 of !57
Premier League teams that are currently
averaging over 1.5 goals


(2013/14) (2015/16)

HOME

Arsenal (1.83) This season 1.57 

Chelsea (2.15) This season 1.25 

Everton (1.92) This season 2.13 

Liverpool (2.92) This season 1.14 

Man City (3.50) This season 2.88 

Swansea (1.85) This season 1.00

AWAY

Arsenal (2.00) This season 2.00


Chelsea (1.54) This season 1.00

Liverpool (2.08) This season 1.25

Man City (2.00) This season 1.00

Manchester United (1.92) This season 1.38

When you get one of those at home against one of the away group, you
have a recipe for goals. *Note for the 2015/16 season a lot of those stats
have dropped markedly for most sides and just a couple have gone up.
Some we can add to the list for 2015/16 are:

Leicester Home (2.00) Away 2.25


West Ham Home (1.71) Away 1.63

Tottenham Home (1.75) Away 1.57

Try the above strategy as in those games I would strongly expect more than
one goal and by laying 0-0,1-0, and 0-1, I only need two goals to win all
three lays.

You will also find that by dutching those three scores, the odds will be
identical to just laying under 1.5 goals. That is market correlation. If there
was a difference, then arbers (arbitrageurs) could just play the difference
between the two and make a profit with no risk.

Page ! 15 of !57
So why do it? Well you may be stronger on one team scoring than another
so you could weight laying their 1-0 result a bit heavier, meaning that if the
team you expect to win or at least score first does just that, your risk is less
on that outcome and slightly higher for the other two.

I will explain that in detail to be sure you get it.

A "price" is just another way of expressing the real chance the

market believes something has of occurring. So a coin toss has a 50%
chance of being heads and a 50% chance of being tails.

In a betting market, each price has a corresponding chance as

assessed by those making the market, and on Betting exchanges, t h a t
is all of us.

So next to each price you will see the % chance of that


event occurring.

Link: Grab my free Prices as Percentages Worksheet

The correct score prices in this random match on Betfair were:

0-0: 18.50 (5.41%)


1-0: 14.50 (6.90%)

0-1: 16.50 (6.06%)

If you add all of those up you have a 18.37% chance. An 18.37% chance is
priced at 5.50 (18.18%) on Betfair. So in the same game, what price is
Under 1.5 goals? Yes it is 5.50. This means that if you don’t want to lay the
three scores for an equal liability (dutching) then you can just lay Under
1.5 goals.

The only time you need to do the three scores, is if you want to have
different liabilities on one of the individual scores.

Page ! 16 of !57
Here it is in action. I have laid 0-0,1-0, 0-1 (and in error laid 0-2 for 52p)
and it was 0-0 at HT and is now 3-2 so the trade has won. You see I win
£33.19 and the most I can lose is £154.88

Page ! 17 of !57
 Strategy 03
Half Time Score

One of my favourite strategies that has reaped some great rewards is the
Half Time Score market.

I find a team with a very high percentage of games with first half goals. I
like this to be above 80% as a minimum. So if they have played 20 games,
at least 16 must have had a first half goal. It does not matter if it is the
team you select or their opponent that scores it.

I then lay 0-0 at a price no higher than 4.00. That price represents a 75%
chance, and we cannot go higher than 80%, to ensure we have some
leeway. Pushing this to its limits would mean a price of 5.00 but I never go
higher than 4.00. It is usually between 3.30 and 3.70.

In a game between Leeds and Brighton I thought Leeds had a very good
chance of scoring or conceding a first half goal in their away match to
Brighton. After laying 0-0 the goal came early to Brighton and I had won.

Page ! 18 of !57
I then made the decision, when 1-0 got down to even money, to lay that
score for the amount of profit I had already made. What this meant was,
that if the score stayed 1-0, I would break even and not lose a penny. If
another goal came I would double my profit and would do no further trades
in the game.

This second trade should only be attempted when watching the game, you
are seeing end to end action, and you can really anticipate another goal.

Maybe try it in a late season game when one team simply has to win and
has gone behind. Or in the Europa League or Champions League when
teams are close to being eliminated unless they score.

Although things don’t normally get frantic until the second half, however if
a team needs to win by two or three goals to stay alive, then you will have
the right conditions.

Also look for a game where you are certain that both teams will continue to
attempt to score. Relegation battles are great for this.

You can be content that you have won with the first goal scored and leave
it at that. Don’t be greedy and make certain you are seeing the right signals
before double dipping. It can be annoying when you get one goal and not
the second one and you end up even. I very rarely do the second trade, as

Page ! 19 of !57
usually it can be past the 20 minute mark when the first goal comes and
that only leaves less than 25 minutes to get another goal.

Here is a recent example from a Tottenham Europa League game with

multiple positions traded in a first half in which they were on the rampage.
These trades were based solely on what I witnessed in the first half and I
had no positions in mind before the game. Spurs took a 3-0 lead before HT
so the result was Any Unquoted, however I left enough to still win £200
should the score have stayed 2-0 or went to 2-1.

Page ! 20 of !57
 Strategy 04
Second Half Goal

There are a load of teams that have a very high ratio of second half goals.

Tottenham is one of the most prolific in the Premier League. Teams like
Tottenham have a second half goal in over 80% of games, and there are
several others with the same numbers. In the matches from season
2012/13 and 2013/14, Tottenham played 66 games and had a second half
goal in 59 of them for an 89% strike rate.

(First half goals were 41/66 or 62%)

From these figures, we know the chance of something happening around

89% of the time, should be priced at 1.12 (89.29%) which means the
inverse* price in a 100% market is 9.3.

*Inverse means the opposite price. So if something is 2.50 (a 40% chance

of happening) then the inverse is 1.67 (a 60% chance of happening).

So if the price of the current score at half time is less than 9.20 in a
Tottenham game, then you have value. And as the price is usually between
4.20 and 4.80, it is one I do consistently.

Here is a trade from the same game as above laying 3-0 at HT at 4.40

Page ! 21 of !57
And then I was very confident there would be more goals with over 30
minutes to go so I went in again.

Then with Any Other Home Win going to 1.01 there was nothing further to
do on the game.

So sometimes, it is about what you are seeing and not what you think will
happen before the game.

With Tottenham already qualified for the next round, I couldn’t be sure if
they would use it as a training run or give the youngsters a chance to shine.
After watching for 10 minutes, I had the answer and could confidently take
positions purely on what I had seen.

Page ! 22 of !57
A recent game with Newcastle had a half time price of 6.60 and so was too
high to lay for the risk v reward value. A game against Cardiff in March
2014 was way too high as well and that was fortunate, as there was again
no second half goal. So I left both alone and it proved the correct decision.

Although the value says the correct price is 12.00 I will never do these
trades unless the price is less than 5.00.

Some other teams with high second half goal stats above 80% are:

Newcastle 45/53 (85%)


Barcelona are 46/52 (88%)

Championship sides with the same statistics as of December 2015:

Rotherham 53/65 (82%)


Ipswich 52/65 (80%) 

Charlton 52/65 (80%)

Leeds 55/65 (85%)

Derby 52/65 (80%)

Fulham 52/65 (80%)

Brentford 56/65 (86%)

Huddersfield 54/65 (84%) 

QPR 16/19 (84%)

So as you can see, there is no shortage of sides with great second half goal
stats. The secret is to wait until you have two of the sides playing each other
and have a go because a lot of people don’t even look at these markets and
this means you can find great value.

If you get Ipswich playing Rotherham, then you have at least a 81% chance
of a second half goal so if you are offered less than 5.40 on Betfair you can
lay it and know you have a value bet.

Do these all season and you will have a huge year.

Make sure you keep records to keep a track of the results.

Also double check each match as some teams may have a higher rate at
home than they do away. They can be 95% at home and 75% away
resulting in an average of 85% overall. This looks good in the big picture
but can have a hidden sting. It only takes 30 seconds to check that.

Page ! 23 of !57
That is all you will need for football.

I have left out the over 2.5 goals markets for a reason. They are very
heavily played by professionals and that makes them very efficient
markets. You may find the odd bit of value in a game here and there but
generally the markets are very tight and I can find better value by steering
away from them.

There are games however, that are so ridiculously out of whack that you
just have to play them and I have found games that should have an over 2.5
price of 1.20, it is that likely, and yet you can get 1.60 or 1.70 so I will get
involved in them. Again, check the head to head and overall stats, confirm
it against the home and away records and if you find a discrepancy, 

wade in. 


Page ! 24 of !57
 CRICKET
I USE TWO SYSTEMS FOR TRADING CRICKET.

ONE IS FOR TEST MATCHES AND ONE IS FOR ONE DAY

MATCHES AND THE TWENTY20 GAMES.

THEY BOTH INVOLVE USING SMALL TO MEDIUM STAKES

AND LOOKING FOR MEDIUM TO LARGE SWINGS IN THE
PRICES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF.

Page ! 25 of !57
 Strategy 05
Lay the team batting first

In Test matches, I often LAY the team batting first as there is no downside
over 90% of the time. A team batting first in a Test match is a great lay for
a couple of reasons.

Usually only three things can happen to a team batting first in a test:

1. They can go very well and be 300 for not many at the end of the day.

2. They can be all out for 200 before tea has been taken.

3. They can be somewhere in between, say 260 for 5 at the end of the day.

So noting the prices of all three results you get the following analysis.

Looking at the first Ashes test in 2009 the prices were as follows:

England 3.60

Australia 2.28

The Draw 3.30

In the first scenario, say England bat first and score 300 for 0 (yes I know
but it is an example!) what will happen to their price? Most would think
they would come in to odds on. WRONG.

What would happen is the draw would come in to about 1.50, England
would be 2.90 and Australia would be 30.00 as it would seem the pitch is a
road and the only result will be a draw as taking 20 wickets may prove
impossible.

As you see, 3.60 to 2.90 is very little movement and very little risk.

The second scenario of England being all out for 200 (much more likely)
would see England’s price shoot out to about 12.00, a great result for
anyone laying first and you can exit the trade, job done, money made.

Page ! 26 of !57
The third scenario is the risky one. Say the score is 260 for 5.

It says runs are possible but there is something in the wicket. Scores like
this on day one usually see the match end with a result other than a draw
and more often than not the team batting last loses, which in this case
would be Australia.

Laying England would not have been the best move. But that is why we
employ stop losses to get out fast if it goes wrong.

If this scenario happened, England would come in to about 1.80 with the
draw at about 8.00 and Australia around 3.50. Not good if you had laid
England at 3.60.

The advantage still lies with going against the side batting first as two out
of three scenarios offer a profit or at least a very small loss with the
potential to move back into profit.

The third option means a small loss.

Provided no more than two wickets fall before lunch (two hours play)
then you are looking at a profit. Paper trade it first and see how it goes.

Page ! 27 of !57
 Strategy 06
Trade the Swings

In ODI and T20 matches the swings are phenomenal and plenty can be won
or lost on the swing of a bat. If the ball goes for six you could be well in,
but if he misses and gets bowled, the price will blow like a gale, taking you
with it.

It is by far the most volatile and exciting sport to trade and you need your
wits about you to do it well.

Here I have taken a position on a side batting first by doing a pre race trade
at 1.76 then trading out at 1.73 after I discovered they would be fielding
first. The market continued to back them.

I then laid them again at 1.63 and traded out at 1.67 and had locked in a
profit of £134 about 38 seconds before the match started.

Page ! 28 of !57
Then once the match started I took another position by laying the fielding
side (which is the same as backing the batting side) and laid at 1.72 and
1.73 and traded out at 1.83 after a boundary was hit and locked in a profit
of £325 and the match was 15 minutes old.

Page ! 29 of !57
In most T20 matches, I wait until the match has started and see what the
wicket does in the first over. A quick bouncy flat wicket will see high scores
and plenty of action. A low bouncing, dead wicket where the ball only just
carries to the keeper, is a real danger to us. You tend to get them in India or
the Bangladesh Premier League (BPL).

If the wicket is the fast bouncy type, BACK the team batting first as these
wickets usually get slower as the day goes on. If you were to back a team at
say 2.20 at the start of the game for £100 then, as they bat, start laying as
they come down in price.

Lay £20 at 2.00, another £20 at 1.90, another at 1.80, another at 1.70 and
again at 1.60 . You have now made a decent profit and can just equalise it
(green up) or keep trading.

If you want to keep trading, BACK them after the loss of a wicket as the
price blows out and the market “over corrects”. If a team was trading at
1.70 and they lose a wicket, they will blow to 1.9. BACK THEM. They will
soon be back to 1.80 as the market settles and normal trading resumes.
You can then lay them again at 1.70 and increase the profit.

And you can do this throughout the innings as wickets fall as long as the
score is building nicely and they are not just collapsing.

Here is an example of a Twenty20 market during a match. See the way the
prices fluctuate? Perfect for trading.

Page ! 30 of !57
Each significant price drop is a wicket being taken or a very low scoring
over has just been bowled. The massive spike at the end, was when South
Africa took a wicket and the price went from 2.00 to 3.00. 

All in two balls — that is how volatile it can be.

You can set up a really nice position in these games in the first six overs,
and the stronger strategy is backing the side batting first, as they mostly
drop nicely in price.

This is a typical one day or T20 trading graph. And if you understand cricket
and can read a game, these are great matches to trade and make money on.

Page ! 31 of !57
 Strategy 07
Lay short prices favourites

In this strategy, I lay very short priced favourites for large sums (for small
risk) and look for one tick movements. If you lay £5000 @ 1.05 that is a
risk of £250 and if you then back the selection @ 1.06 for £5000, then you
have made £50.

You can then leave it run and collect the £50 with zero risk to your bank
(should that side win) or you can hedge it and lay £50 @ 1.06, to make just
over £47 no matter which team goes on to win. For slightly larger risk this
system can be stretched to a maximum of three ticks.

In the example below, I laid $10,000 @ 1.06 (risk $600) and then scratched
it (traded out at the same price), as the market was not moving, I then laid
it again at 1.06 and traded out at 1.09 which is a profit of $300 or when
hedged, $275.23. Lovely.

Page ! 32 of !57
You can do this as many times as you feel the conditions allow, but you
should be watching the game to attempt trades like these. The advantage
of the single tick trades is they can be done in the hour or so leading up to
the start of the game.

Here is another example, where I have traded large amounts, at small

prices, for small risk, several times in the match.

Page ! 33 of !57
Remember, if you lay 1.05 you can wait for 1.08 and make £150 but it is
considerably more risky to try for more than one tick.

Below is a video of one such trade (T20). I did two trades. Lay 1.06 for
£5000 (risk £300) and then backed at 1.07. I then lay 1.05 for £5000 (risk
£250) and backed at 1.06 for £5000.

That was £100 profit and then when hedged at 1.06 it equated to £94.34
no matter which side won the game. You see on the risk your screen,
displayed as the figures in brackets above, but in reality with the match
having just started, the risk was about zero as the price was never go to
move down much in the first 15 minutes.

Here is a video showing this strategy in action: Trading T20

And another, older video, showing the same strategy: 


Small banks large trades

If you like the idea of betting on a coin toss, then I suggest you pick either
side and lay them just before the toss. You want that team to lose the toss.
If that happens, you just made 8-10 ticks and you can exit.

Obviously you have a 50% chance of being wrong and it will go down if
they win the toss.

In some matches, the toss is extremely vital and in others, like on rock hard
ODI pitches, it is not so vital.

There are also teams that know what they want to do - like India. They like
chasing, so do England. If their opponent wins the toss and chooses to bat,
the toss becomes a non-event because had they won it, they would have
inserted the other team anyway.

If India lose a toss and get sent in to bat, they drift about 10 ticks as they
don’t like to bat first.

I rarely choose to take a position pre toss, but if you know what you are
doing, and more importantly if you know what the teams playing like to
do, then you can make money. 


Page ! 34 of !57
 HORSE RACING
THE HARDEST MARKETS TO
MASTER AS THEY ARE THE
MOST EFFICIENT. SCALPING IS
THE HARDEST TO CONQUER,
SO IS FINDING A WINNER. HERE
ARE SOME IDEAS APART FROM
THOSE TWO DISCIPLINES.

Page ! 35 of !57
There are literally thousands of “systems” for horse racing. You can get
them ranging from choosing odd numbered saddlecloths, to the most
elaborate selection criteria from the day of the week they were born to the
ambient temperature and the curvature of the earth at the time of the race
they are in. Some work, most don’t.

The reason you don’t find too many that work is because once a few
hundred get onto it, the elements change (particularly if the criteria is
price) and the system dies a slow death.

And as horses don’t race for more than a few years, things evolve as
trainers try new ways to get their horse fitter than the next bloke’s horse.
So what works this year, may not work next year.

A legendary Australian trainer, Bart Cummings has won 12 Melbourne Cups.

He swears the winner MUST run on the Saturday before the Cup, usually in
the Mackinnon stakes. He should know, but recently that has all changed
and trainers don’t wish to put their horse through a gruelling mile and a
half three days before taking on two miles on hard ground in hot
conditions. But the master trainer has won it twelve times, so who

can argue?

There are a few successful strategies (or could be classed systems) I use for
horses.

• One is in the win market

• One in the place market

• And there is lay the field

Page ! 36 of !57
 Strategy 08 Lay the Field

This is called “Lay the Field”. We lay every horse in a race, and hope to get
at least two matched during the race.

The first thing to do is select the right race. It must be:

• Between 5f and a mile and a half (1000m to 2400m).

• Ideally, it should be a handicap.

• It must have eight or more runners but ideally 10 or more, but eight is ok.

• The favourite, must not be odds on.

You are also able to try this in very competitive races like Group One,
Group Two or Group Three races.

You place the bets at the price you choose. I tend to use 1.60 but you can
use 1.50, 1.40, 1.30 or actually any price below 2.00.

You can do this two ways. One is in Betfair and you manually select each
horse and enter the price and stake for each one or using BetTrader (or
your chosen software, if it has this function)

The main thing to remember when choosing a price is this: the lower the
price, the more you make, but the less often you will get two matched as it
is harder to match multiple runners the lower you go.

In the examples below, I have done some pre-race trading as I usually do

and then when the race is about to start, I place the lay bets. That is why
you see other trades in the screenshots. There are also some in-running
trades like the lay @ 7.40 and back @ 140.

The relevant trades for this strategy are circled.

Page ! 37 of !57
On the other side of the coin, the higher up the price ladder you go, the
more often you will get two matched but you won’t make as much per lay.

Page ! 38 of !57
Another way to play this strategy is to do multiple trades.

If two are going to get matched at 1.61, it must be a close race. In very
competitive races I set multiple traps.

In this next example, I laid four horses at 1.61, then three of the same four
horses at 1.35 and had another trap set at 1.15 but only got one matched
and then there was another trap set at 1.02 but none of these got matched
– it all happened in a blur!

You can see from the photo, as they approach the finish line, all four horses
were neck and neck and these handicap races can provide plenty of fun

and profit.

Here is a video from December 2015 doing a

lay the field. I have set six price points from
1.71 down to 1.61, 1.51, 1.41, 1.31 and 1.21. There were two matched at

Page ! 39 of !57
all six prices and a third holes matched twice at 1.71 and 1.61 for a
marvellous £131 profit. Have a look.

Video: Lay The Field

Here is the screenshot from that trade in the video. 


Page ! 40 of !57
 Strategy 09
Laying the Field - alternate

This is a variant on the strategy above, and has a low strike rate but pays
off big when you get one.

It is laying the field at 1.02 and I do it for £500, meaning a liability of £10
but I offset this often by laying a horse in running that I believe can’t win.
By laying it for £10, it means I get a free shot at the 1.02 and if only one
horse gets matched at that price, which will happen most of the time, then I
lose nothing.

Even if only one gets matched, but it goes to a photo, you have the chance
to trade out for a very nice win that will finance another 10 or so shots at
this strategy.

Like the screenshot below that only got one matched, but when the race
went to a photo, I can easily trade out for a nice profit. In the UK trading
continues for a photo finish and you would be surprised how much money
is matched on them even though trading often lasts just 10 seconds or less.

By using the trading software BetTrader you can use just one click of the
mouse to make this trade and secure the profit before the market closes.

Page ! 41 of !57
In the above example, you see I laid Short Shrift for £10, as I thought he
looked beaten and had one lay matched at 1.02 despite the very tight
finish. When it went to a photo, the winner traded at 1.35 and I took the
profit for a nice win of £132.

What will happen a lot of the time, is demonstrated below where I lay the
field at 1.67 and get a couple matched, I lay a horse I don’t think can win,
and I only get one matched at 1.02 - but as you see, I don’t lose money, I
only make £3 and would make £500 if I get two matched.

You have to do a lot of races for this to pay off, but as it only takes a few
seconds to set up, it is something worth doing.

Page ! 42 of !57
Horses get beaten at 1.01 all the time. Here is one that had £17,000
matched at 1.01 and it was beaten. This is when I decided to start doing
the strategy.

Here is a horse that was beaten at

Southwell. It was a four horse race,
and the outsider of the four got up
to win.

Once again, it is probably best to

stick to races with more than eight
runners, as a race with five runners,
and two clear stand out horses,
probably won’t produce good
results.

Page ! 43 of !57
We need the race to be rather competitive - sprints will be far better than
distance jumps races as you get much tighter finishes. Just use common
sense and don’t do it on three horse races (races with three horses).

Just for the record, it can work on small fields as you see below, in a five
horse race, I laid the one I didn’t think could win, then laid the field at 1.50
and then again at 1.01 and two matched would have been lovely.

Here I got two matched at 1.50 and can’t lose.

Although I didn’t get the big payoff, at least this does not cost me money
and will finance the next bet to try it again.

I know I will get one or two of these a month, for sure. If it costs nothing to
try, and you get two a month, that is £1000 a month or £12,000 a year just
from this strategy alone - and you only need two races a month to win.

And if you pick the right races, like 6f handicaps, then you can lay one you
don’t like, which covers the £10, then lay them all at 1.61- which gives you
a win and the lay at 1.02 gives you a free shot at the big prize. Whenever
one gets gubbed at 1.01, you win £500 and you are not risking anything.

Page ! 44 of !57
 Strategy 10
Laying in the Place Market

This system involves laying horses in the PLACE market. This system is a
real bank booster and works well.

There are a few very basic rules.

• You must have a minimum of 10 runners.

• The price must be between 3.80 and 4.30 including those two prices.
So that is a six tick window.

There may be more than one horse in that price bracket. If so, check the
price history graph and look for a horse that is drifting (moving UP in price)
and avoid any that are steaming in (moving DOWN in price).

In the race above, there was only one horse that qualified for the strategy.
No other horses were between 3.80 and 4.30 so there was no decision to
make. You can either lay to a set liability or a set stake. On this occasion I
have chosen to lay for £20.

Page ! 45 of !57
At the end of the race, the horse was unplaced as the three horses with
1.01 next to their name were the placed horses.

I did it on the next race as well to show that I am not just being selective.

Once again in this race, there was only one selection so there was no
decision to make. The horses that are priced in this range are normally
16/1 to 20/1 chances. You will have losses of course, as these horses
obviously place some times and obviously they win the odd race too but I
find in this price range, they place less often than their price suggests they
should. Just don’t bet the farm, keep it small and consistent, so you don’t
get wiped out.

Page ! 46 of !57
And we ended up with the same result again. It worked on both occasions I
tried it in the making of this book.

And then when I got to this point in the book, the next race was on so I
tried it again.

On this occasion there were initially no horses in the zone but then one
drifted into range. I tried to lay £20 but only got £4 matched, before the
horse went out of the range again. You cannot chase the price, so I only got
set for the amount already matched.

Once again the horse didn’t run a place –that’s three wins from three
attempts. If you lose the first time you try it, don’t give up. It did work
years ago, it still works now, that’s why I have included in in strategies I
use.

Page ! 47 of !57
It is not something I use all the time as over the years I tended to move on
to other strategies and of course you can’t do every strategy on every race.
But it is something I found works well in the winter months on the all-
weather tracks, as these races were.

I guess it is to do with the lower quality of horse and 16/1 shots really
should be 33/1 shots, but the bookmakers won’t offer the true odds - so we
get the value by laying in the place market.

Do some trials to see what strike rate you get, but to make money, you
need about an 80% strike rate. If you are going to make £20 for each win,
and lose £60 when one places, then obviously a 75% strike rate will break
even, or even lose you a bit when you factor in commission on the wins.

The bottom line is, over a year this strategy will win, but I found it was a
slow process, as one loss wipes out three wins, so I moved on to more
lucrative strategies.

Scalping

By trading the period of about 25 minutes to 10 minutes before the race,
there is far less volatility in the market and I can trade comfortably with
larger amounts and make an easy $10 to $50 and then if I choose, use one
of the strategies above risk free.

Here is a video showing you how I get the money to try these trades. 

Early Scalping 


Page ! 48 of !57



OTHER
STRATEGIES
THE STRATEGIES PRESENTED SO FAR
COVER 95% OF MY TRADING AND I
REALLY DO THE BULK OF MY WORK ON
THE FOOTBALL AND CRICKET MARKETS.

BELOW ARE LESS USED STRATEGIES

THAT I SOMETIMES USE.

IF YOU ARE JUST GETTING STARTED,

THEY ARE A GOOD WAY TO LEARN HOW
THE RELEVANT MARKETS WORK.
 Strategy 11
Greyhound Racing

I have had amazing success by laying the favourite in races graded A3 to

A10. I don’t lay in A1 or A2, as the favourite usually wins or H races
(Handicap) or distance races (S graded races).

I wait until the last 20 seconds before the start of the race, as that is when
most of the money comes into the market and the favourite can change in
the last 30 seconds. Sometimes they drift in price sharply right before the
jump and you can back them back and make a profit even before the race
starts.

Page ! 50 of !57
 Strategy 12 - 14
Tennis

Strategy 12 

Back the Favourite

If you have an idea about who will win the match, or at least perform well
during the first set, you can simply back them at the start.

Using this method, you can take full advantage of the drop in their price,
once they break their opponent’s serve. I would generally expect a player’s
price to drop by half if they break serve. By that I mean if they started the
match at say, 1.32, I would expect their price after the break to be
approximately 1.16.

You then have the option of greening up after the break or wait until they
win the first set for a bigger profit.

Strategy 13 

Wait for the break of serve.

If you’re not sure who will win the match you can wait until one of the
players breaks their opponents serve and then back them.

You can then wait for them to hold their own serve and green up or you can
wait until they win the first set for a slightly bigger profit.

Strategy 14 

Lay the unbeatable favourite.

Page ! 51 of !57
Many times you will see a favourite start at a price below 1.10 and even
1.02. I will often take these on and see what happens in the first set.

You can lay £1000 @ 1.02 and the risk is £20 - all you need is a break point
and they will go to 1.07 or 1.08, you then back for £1000 and you make
£60, just like that.

If he gets broken, he could go to 1.15 and then you have a great trade.

It is best to look at the big four like Murray, Djokovic, Federer, Nadal - and
now Wawrinka can be added to the mix.

There is nowhere for the price to go - other than up - and remember the
price is for the player to win the match and that is not our concern.

We are not betting if he will win or

lose. We are betting on whether his
price will rise during the match and
most of the time, the answer will be
yes - at some point they will trade
higher than their starting price. 


Page ! 52 of !57
 Strategy 15
Rugby Union

I only trade international matches. To be honest, I don’t really have a set

strategy anymore, as the game has changed so much in the last five years, I
have not had time to develop a new one.

The one strategy I had the most success with was BACKING the HOME side
AFTER the opponent has scored FIRST or taken the lead. It had a strike rate
above 95% in the many years I used it. Check it out.

You can check historical results easily to see if it has been working. The
results have the time the points were scored, so you can see who scored
first and who went on to win.

It is not unusual at all to see an underdog get in a nice position early, and
get a penalty and take a shot at goal to get some early points on the board,
and then the favourite starts to assert authority. You can then get a slightly
better price and the favourites usually come home to win.

In the match below, in February 2014 in the Six Nations, Ireland led
England 10-3 at Twickenham. I laid Ireland when they were short and then
when England led 13-10 with 15 minutes to go, I traded out. This meant it
didn’t matter if Ireland scored a try to win the game in the last seconds,
when it would have been too late to do anything.

Page ! 53 of !57
And this shows the end result, where the original lay would have bagged a
total profit of £50, by trading out I make £47 - the result is now irrelevant.

In summary, I did a lay of Ireland at 2.86 and a back at 48, a very nice trade.

If it goes wrong, and you started by backing the favourite, don’t be afraid to
reverse the position and lay the team you felt would win and get on the
other team. You will win less as you will need to take a hit, but it is better
than losing if your team clearly is not going as well as you expected.

Page ! 54 of !57
 Strategy 16
Motor Sport - Formula One

Backing the driver on pole after qualifying and then laying them after the
first lap, pays well in the vast majority of races.

It is quite rare now, with the starts being rather automatic, that the pole
sitter does not lead after the first lap. You rarely see them beaten off the
line, in particular when Vettel is on pole.

I find if the pole sitter starts at 2.00 to 2.20, and he is leading after lap one,
then the price will come down to 1.60 to 1.70 and you can lock in a nice
trade.

If you fancy that driver to go on

and win the race, then put the
profit on him to win - to do that
you just lay for the same stake you
backed him for before the race.

Page ! 55 of !57
 Conclusion
So now you have my 16 strategies to use on various sports. As I stated
previously, most of these are in the public domain and are no great secret.
But this book was to inform you of the exact strategies I use in my sports
trading.

As you can see, you don't need hundreds of them, as that would just
confuse things. I pick or create the ones I like, fine tune them to suit what
works for me and then work with them until the market conditions change
and they no longer work.

Most, if not all of these have stood the test of time and work on a daily,
weekly, monthly and yearly basis.

They all work well but like anything, every now and then an upset result
will throw a spanner in the works. Don't let one or two bad results throw
you off. If something works 95 times out of 100 then don’t lose heart
because of the five losses. Natural variance or standard deviation means
that the most highly unlikely occurrences will happen from time to time.
That is live sport, not a dud strategy.

I have used all of these strategies myself at various times in my trading

career and can verify they all work well.

I wish you good luck with them. Combined with the trading as described in
my other books the Sportstrader and Racingtrader manuals, you have a
diverse range of weapons to attack the exchanges and build that bank.

You should follow me on Twitter @SportsTrader_AU for live trades and

advice and to have any short questions answered. You can also join our
Facebook page and get information on trades, new products, great deals on
BetTrader etc.

Page ! 56 of !57
 Links
My Main Website: TheSports Trader Website

Follow me for live insights My Twitter account

News & Deals! Facebook Page

The software I use to execute my trades is called BetTrader and it is

available here: www.RacingTraders.co.uk

Lastly, check out my SportsTrading Daily Email service, I give you the
insight to the trades I am doing that day, the why where and how!

Happy trading and I wish you all the best.

Regards,


Tony Hargraves 

“The Badger”

Page ! 57 of !57