Chapter 14.

Queuing Models and Capacity Planning

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Figure 14.1 Queue Phenomenon
Location: Hospital Outpatient Pharmacy Location: Hospital Outpatient Pharmacy
Day & Time: Monday, 11:00 AM Day & Time: Monday, 3:30 PM
Average number in line: 20 Average number in line: 0
Idle servers: 0 Idle servers: 3
Average wait time: 15 minutes Average wait time: 0 minutes
Hourly wage per idle pharmacist: $40

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QUEUING MODELS

A mathematical approach to the analysis of waiting lines

Weighs the cost of providing a given level of service capacity
(i.e., shortening wait times) against the potential costs of
having customers wait

Reduce Wait Times Minimizing costs

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WHY MUST WE WAIT IN LINES?

RANDOMNESS
ARRIVALS
SERVICE TIMES

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OUR GOAL?

TO REDUCE COSTS
• Waiting Costs
• Capacity Costs

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TO SUMMARIZE:
Waiting Costs
• Salaries paid to employees while they wait for service (e.g.,
physicians waiting for an x-ray or test result)
• Cost of waiting space
• Loss of business due to wait (balking customers)
the cost of maintaining the ability
Capacity Costs--
to provide service

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 Figure 14.2 Healthcare Service Capacity and Costs

Total cost
Cost

Cost of service capacity

Waiting line cost

Optimum capacity

Health care service capacity (servers)

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 BEFORE GETTING TO
THE COMPLICATED PART.
. Examine
Let’s . the Main Characteristics of any queuing model:
The population Source
The number of servers (channels)
Arrival and service patterns
Queue discipline (order of service)

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THE POPULATION
SOURCE
Infinite
• Customer arrivals are unrestricted
• Customer arrivals exceed system capacity
• Exists where service is unrestricted
Finite source
• Customer population where potential number of
customers is limited
Can you think of examples for each source?

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 Figure 14.3 Queuing Conceptualization of Flu Inoculations

Population
(Patient Source) Facility
Queue Service
(Waiting Line)

Arrivals Server Exit

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THE NUMBER OF
SERVERS
Capacity is a function of the capacity of each server
and the number of servers being used
Servers are also called channels
Systems can be single or multiple server, and
consist of phases

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 Figure 14.4 Conceptualization of a Single-line, Multi-phase System

Phase -1

Phase -2
Phase -3

Queue-1 Queue-2 Queue-3

Population Receptionist Nurse Physician
(server) (server) (server)
Arrivals
Exit

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Figure 14.5 Multi-Line Queuing Systems

Nurses
Providing Inoculations

Line-1
Queue

Patients Line-2

Line-3

Emergency Room

Phase-1 Phase-2 Phase-3

Physicians- Diagnostic Physicians-

Initial Evaluation Testing Interventions

Queue-1 Queue-2 Queue-3

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ARRIVAL AND
SERVICE PATTERNS
Remember-- both arrival and service patterns are random,
thus causing waiting lines
Models assume that:
• Customer arrival rate can be described by Poisson distribution
• Time between arrivals can be described by exponential
distribution

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 Figure 14.6 Emergency Room Arrival Patterns

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday
7:00am 3:00pm 7:00pm
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 Figure 14.7 Measures of Arrival Patterns

Inter-arrival time

9:00pm 10:00pm

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 Figure 14.8 Poisson Distribution

.20

.15

.10
Probability

.05

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Patient
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 Figure 14.9 Service Time for ER Patients

90

60
Time (minutes)

30

A B C D E F

Patients

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 Exponential or Poisson?

If service time is exponential, then the service rate is

Poisson. Further, if the customer arrival rate is Poisson,
then the inter-arrival time (i.e., the time between
arrivals) is exponential.

For instance: If a lab processes 10 customers per hour

(rate), the average service time is 6 minutes. If the
arrival rate is 12 per hour, then the average time
between arrivals is 5 minutes.

Thus, service and arrival rates are described by the

Poisson distribution and inter-arrival times and service
times are described by exponential distribution.

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 QUEUE CHARACTERISTICS
Patients who arrive and see big lines (the flu shot
example) may change their minds and not join
the queue, but go elsewhere to obtain service;
this is called balking. If they do join the queue
and are dissatisfied with the waiting time, they
may leave the queue; this is called reneging.

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 QUEUE DISCIPLINE

Refers to the order in which patients are

processed, for instance:
✓ First Come First Served
✓ Most Serious First Served
✓ Highest Costs (waiting) First Served

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EXHIBIT 14.1 QUEUING MODEL
CLASSIFICATION
A: specification of arrival process, measured by inter-arrival time or arrival rate.
M: exponential or Poisson distribution
D: constant value
K: Erlang distribution
G: a general distribution with known mean and variance

B: specification of service process, measured by inter-service time or service rate

M: exponential or Poisson distribution
D: constant value
K: Erlang distribution
G: a general distribution with known mean and variance

C: specification of number of servers -- “s”

D: specification of queue or the maximum numbers allowed in a queuing system

E: specification of customer population

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 How do we judge our system performance?
➢Average number of patients (in queue or in system)

➢Average time patients spend (in queue or in system)

➢Capacity utilization (% of capacity utilized)

➢Implied costs of a given level of capacity and its related waiting

line

➢Probability that an arriving patient will have to wait for service

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How do we judge our system performance?

Realize that increases in system utilization are achieved at

the expense of increases in both the length of the waiting
line and the average waiting time.

Most models assume that the system is in a steady state

where average arrival and service rates are stable.

0 System Utilization
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TYPICAL INFINITE-SOURCE
MODELS

Single channel, M/M/1

Multiple channel, M/M/s>1,

where “s” designates the number of channels
(servers).

These models assume steady state conditions and a

Poisson arrival rate.

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 Infinite source models

➢Single channel, exponential service time

➢Single channel, constant service time

➢Multiple channel, exponential service time

➢Multiple priority service

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EXHIBIT 14.2 QUEUING MODEL
NOTATION

 arrival rate
 service rate
Lq average number of customers waiting for service
L average number of customers in the system
(waiting or being served)
Wq average time customers wait in line
W average time customers spend in the system
 system utilization
1/ service time
Po probability of zero units in system
Pn probability of n units in system
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INFINITE SOURCE MODELS: MODEL FORMULATIONS
Five key relationships that provide basis for queuing formulations and are
common for all infinite-source models:

1.The average number of patients being served is the ratio of arrival to

service rate. 
r=

2.The average number of patients in the system is the average number
in line plus the average number being served.
L = Lq + r
3. The average time in line is the average number in line divided by the
arrival rate. L
Wq =
q


4. The average time in the system is the sum of the time in line plus the
service time.
1
W = Wq +

5. System utilization is the ratio of arrival rate to service capacity.

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 Single Server, Poisson Arrival and Exponential
Service Time (M/M/1).

2
Lq =
 ( −  )


P0 = 1 −


n

Pn = P0  

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 Single Server, Poisson Arrival and Exponential
Service Time (M/M/1).
Example 14.1

A hospital is exploring the level of staffing needed for a

booth in the local mall where they would test and provide
information on diabetes. Previous experience has shown that
on average, every 15 minutes a new person approaches the
booth.

A nurse can complete testing and answering questions, on

average, in 12 minutes. If there is a single nurse at the booth,
calculate system performance measures including the
probability of idle time and of 0, and 1 person waiting in the
queue. What happens to the utilization rate if another
workstation and nurse are added to the unit?

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FIGURE 14.10. EXCEL SETUP AND SOLUTION TO THE
DIABETES INFORMATION BOOTH PROBLEM.

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 Multi-Server, Poisson Arrival and
Exponential Service Time (M/M/s>1)
s

 
 
Lq = P0
(s − 1)!(s −  )2

1
P0 =
   n  
s

 s −1     
  +  
 n=0 n!   
 s!1 −  
  s  
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 Multi-Server, Poisson Arrival and
Exponential Service Time (M/M/s>1)

1
Wa =
s − 

Wq
Pw =
Wa
Wa = the average waiting time for an arrival not immediately served
Pw = probability that an arrival will have to wait for service.

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 Multi-Server, Poisson Arrival and
Exponential Service Time (M/M/s>1)

Expanding on Example 14.1: The hospital found that among

the elderly, this free service had gained popularity, and now,
during week-day afternoons, arrivals occur on average every
6 minutes 40 seconds (or 6.67 minutes), making the effective
arrival rate 9 per hour.

To accommodate the demand, the booth is staffed with two

nurses working during weekday afternoons at the same
average service rate. What are the system performance
measures for this situation?

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 Multi-Server, Poisson Arrival and
Exponential Service Time (M/M/s>1)

Solution:
This is an M/M/2 queuing problem. The Excel solution
provided in Figure 14.12 shows the 90% utilization.

On the basis of these results, the healthcare manager may

consider expanding the booth further during those hours.

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Figure 14.12 System Performance Summary for Expanded Diabetes Information Booth with M/M/2

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Figure 14.13 System Performance Summary for Expanded Diabetes Information Booth with M/M/3

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Figure 14.14 Capacity Analysis

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 Multi-Channel, Poisson Arrival and Exponential
Service Time (M/M/s>1)
Table 14.1 Summary Analysis for M/M/s Queue for Diabetes Information Booth

2 Stations 3 Stations 4 Stations

Performance Measure
Patient arrival rate 9 9 9
Service rate 5 5 5
Overall system utilization 90% 60% 45%
L (system) 9.5 2.3 1.9
Lq 7.7 0.5 0.1
W (system) – in hours 1.05 .26 0.21
Wq – in hours 0.85 .06 0.01
Po (idle) 5.3% 14.6% 16.2%
Pw (busy) 85.3% 35.5% 12.8%
Total system cost in $ per hour 790.53 294.91 302.89

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 ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS

➢Steady state of arrival and service process

➢Independence of arrival and service is assumed

➢The number of servers is assumed fixed

➢Little ability to incorporate important exceptions

to the general flow

➢Difficult to model all but simple processes

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 The End

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