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NUCLEAR

NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2004

T ECHNOLOGY
REVIEW
2004

International Atomic Energy Agency

www.iaea.org
International Atomic Energy Agency
P.O. Box 100, Wagramer Strasse 5
A-1400 Vienna, Austria
Telephone: (+43-1) 2600-0
Fax : (+43-1) 26007
E-Mail: [email protected]
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NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2004

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The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency:

AFGHANISTAN GUATEMALA PERU

ALBANIA HAITI PHILIPPINES
ALGERIA HOLY SEE POLAND
ANGOLA HONDURAS PORTUGAL
ARGENTINA HUNGARY QATAR
ARMENIA ICELAND
REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
AUSTRALIA INDIA
ROMANIA
AUSTRIA INDONESIA
AZERBAIJAN IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION
BANGLADESH IRAQ SAUDI ARABIA
BELARUS IRELAND SENEGAL
BELGIUM ISRAEL SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
BENIN ITALY SEYCHELLES
BOLIVIA JAMAICA SIERRA LEONE
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA JAPAN SINGAPORE
BOTSWANA JORDAN SLOVAKIA
BRAZIL KAZAKHSTAN SLOVENIA
BULGARIA KENYA
SOUTH AFRICA
BURKINA FASO KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
SPAIN
CAMEROON KUWAIT
CANADA KYRGYZSTAN SRI LANKA
CENTRAL AFRICAN LATVIA SUDAN
REPUBLIC LEBANON SWEDEN
CHILE LIBERIA SWITZERLAND
CHINA LIBYAN ARAB JAMAHIRIYA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC
COLOMBIA LIECHTENSTEIN TAJIKISTAN
COSTA RICA LITHUANIA THAILAND
CÔTE D’IVOIRE LUXEMBOURG THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
CROATIA MADAGASCAR REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
CUBA MALAYSIA
TUNISIA
CYPRUS MALI
TURKEY
CZECH REPUBLIC MALTA
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC MARSHALL ISLANDS UGANDA
OF THE CONGO MAURITIUS UKRAINE
DENMARK MEXICO UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONACO UNITED KINGDOM OF
ECUADOR MONGOLIA GREAT BRITAIN AND
EGYPT MOROCCO NORTHERN IRELAND
EL SALVADOR MYANMAR UNITED REPUBLIC
ERITREA NAMIBIA OF TANZANIA
ESTONIA NETHERLANDS UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ETHIOPIA NEW ZEALAND
URUGUAY
FINLAND NICARAGUA
UZBEKISTAN
FRANCE NIGER
GABON NIGERIA VENEZUELA
GEORGIA NORWAY VIETNAM
GERMANY PAKISTAN YEMEN
GHANA PANAMA ZAMBIA
GREECE PARAGUAY ZIMBABWE

The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of
the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957.
The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and
enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’.
© IAEA, 2004
Permission to reproduce or translate the information contained in this publication may be
obtained by writing to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Wagramer Strasse 5, P.O. Box 100,
A-1400 Vienna, Austria.
Printed by the IAEA in Austria
August 2004
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NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY REVIEW

2004

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY

VIENNA, 2004
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CONTENTS

A. FUNDAMENTALS OF NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . 1

A.1. Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

A.2. Research Reactors, Accelerators and Radioisotopes . . . . . . . . 1

B. POWER APPLICATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

B.1. Nuclear Power Today . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

B.2. The Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
B.2.1. Medium term projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
B.2.2. Sustainable development and climate change . . . . . . . . 10
B.2.3. Advanced fission and fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

C. APPLICATIONS FOR FOOD, WATER AND HEALTH . . . . . . . 14

C.1. Nuclear Techniques in Crop Improvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

C.2. Nuclear Techniques in Crop Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
C.3. Improving Livestock Productivity and Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
C.4. Food Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
C.5. Towards Sustainable Land and Water Management . . . . . . . . . 17
C.6. Water Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
C.7. Human Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
C.7.1. Nutrition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
C.7.2. Nuclear medicine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

D. APPLICATIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL AND

SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

D.1. Protection of the Marine and Terrestrial Environments . . . . . 22

D.1.1. Marine environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
D.1.2. Terrestrial environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
D.2. Radiation Technology for Clean and Safe Industries . . . . . . . . 24
D.2.1. Nuclear analytical techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
D.2.2. Nuclear desalination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

E. SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY AND

APPLICATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
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ANNEX I: RESEARCH REACTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

A. General Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
B. General Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
C. Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
D. Nuclear Fuel Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
D.1. General Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
D.1.1. Inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
D.1.2. Storage Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
D.2. Reduced enrichment for research and test reactors
(RERTR) and Fuel Return Programmes . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
D.2.1. RERTR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
D.2.2. Fuel Return Programmes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
E. Decommissioning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

ANNEX II: THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER PICTURE . . . . . . . . 38

ANNEX III: 50 YEARS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

A. International Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
B. The ‘Turnkey’ Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
C. Environmentalism, Slower Growth and Bad Management . . . 46
D. The 1990s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

ANNEX IV: ADVANCED AND INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES . 54

A. Light Water Reactors (LWRs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

B. Heavy Water Reactors (HWRs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
C. Gas Cooled Reactors (GCRs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
D. Fast Reactors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
E. International Initiatives for Innovative Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
F. Fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

ANNEX V: MOLECULAR TECHNOLOGY - A PRACTICAL

REVOLUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
B. Isotopic Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
C. Genomics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
D. Molecular Diagnostics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
E. Medical Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
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F. Livestock Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
G. Biochips . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
H. Biopharmaceuticals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
I. Scintillation Proximity Assay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
J. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
K. Vaccines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
L. Gene Therapy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

ANNEX VI: RADIOISOTOPE AND RADIATION TECHNOLOGY 69

A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
B. Radioisotopes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
B.1. Current Status of Radioisotope Production . . . . . . . . . 70
B.1.1. Radioisotopes for medicine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
B.1.2. Radioisotopes for industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
B.2. Future Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
C. Radiation Technology for Clean and Safe Industry . . . . . . . . . 73
C.1. Radiation Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
C.2. Radiotracers and Sealed Source Applications . . . . . . . 75
D. Nuclear Analytical Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

ANNEX VII: DESALINATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
B. The Role of Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
C. Current Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
D. Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

ANNEX VIII: THE SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR

APPLICATIONS: A PERSPECTIVE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

A. Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
B. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
C. Assessing the Impact of Nuclear Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
D. Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
E. Food and Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
F. Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
G. Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
H. Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
I. Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
J. Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
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A. FUNDAMENTALS OF NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT

A.1. Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Data

The viability and credibility of a wide range of nuclear-based technologies

require ready access to high-quality atomic, molecular and nuclear data. The
Agency has a central role in establishing and maintaining extensive databases
to encompass bibliographic information, theoretical and experimental data,
and recording evaluated atomic and nuclear data. International links continue
to be forged and maintained in order to ensure the needs and integrity of
various programmes, for example advice and recommendations on atomic and
molecular data are provided by the Atomic and Molecular (A+M)
Subcommittee of the International Fusion Research Council, while similar
guidance on nuclear data is given by the International Nuclear Data
Committee.
The demands of new nuclear technologies continue to determine the
direction(s) of future data development, including the requirements for data
that address innovative fuel cycles, accelerator-driven systems, nuclear inciner-
ation, fusion devices, diagnostic and therapeutic medical treatment by
radiation, optimization of medical isotope production, non-destructive
materials testing, radiation analytical techniques (e.g. neutron activation
analysis and ion beam analysis), minerals exploration and land-mine detection.
Some recent data development projects with diverse applications are a
search engine for A+M data to permit simultaneous data retrieval from a
number of different sources for both numerical and bibliographic databases to
aid designers; the facility to make A+M theoretical calculations on-line,
permitting the user to generate new data from theoretical models by running
the appropriate codes at the sites of the institutes that maintain the codes; a
data library on radiated power and ionization balance for plasmas of interest in
fusion research, and a data library on standard reaction cross sections that will
reduce the uncertainties of relative cross-section measurements, and thus
contribute significantly to planned improvements in the new ional libraries.

A.2. Research Reactors, Accelerators and Radioisotopes

For over 50 years, research reactors have made valuable contributions to

the development of nuclear power, basic science, materials development,
radioisotope production for medicine and industry, and education and training.
They remain core experimental instruments. As of June 2004, 672 research

1
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reactors are recorded in the IAEA’s Research Reactor Data Base (RRDB), of
which 274 are operational in 56 countries (85 in 39 developing countries), 214
are shut down, 168 have been decommissioned and 16 are planned or under
construction.
Many of those that are shut down, but not decommissioned, still have
fuel, both fresh and spent, at the sites. An extended delay between final
shutdown and decommissioning will affect both cost and safety at the time of
decommissioning, mainly due to the loss of experienced staff (already ageing at
the time of shut down) necessary to participate in decommissioning activities1.
Under-utilization of research reactors is an issue of concern in many
Member States. However, many research reactors in operation are extensively
used at both national and international level for radioisotope production, beam
line research, industrial applications, neutron irradiation and specialized appli-
cations. In addition, new multi-purpose and single-purpose research reactors
are being built.
Use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel is considered a potential
proliferation threat. To date, 31 research reactors have undergone full
conversion to low enriched uranium (LEU). Seven other research reactors
have been partially converted, while others are awaiting conversion. The
unavailability of a qualified high-density fuel, suitable for converting some
specific research reactors, is an important concern. The problem of using LEU
instead of HEU as target material in isotope production for medical applica-
tions is being given serious consideration.
Charged particle accelerators are powerful tools for a multitude of appli-
cations, such as probes for analysis of physical, chemical and biological
samples; ion beam modification of surfaces and materials for enhancing desired
properties; radioisotope production; radiation processing of materials and
radiotherapy of cancer. The demand for synchrotron radiation and high-
quality pulsed neutron beams from spallation sources used for materials
research is increasing.
A variety of radioisotopes (more than 150 in different forms), predomi-
nantly of reactor origin, are in extensive use. Radionuclides suitable for radio-
therapy and easily producible in research reactors, such as 177Lu are being
intensively evaluated for development of radiopharmaceuticals. Also, small
sealed sources of 125I and 103Pd are being researched for treatment of eye and
prostate tumours. Positron emission tomography (PET) tracers from medical
cyclotrons, F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) in particular, are making an
increasing impact, mainly in oncology.

1
Annex I refers.

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B. POWER APPLICATIONS

B.1. Nuclear Power Today2

“The energy produced by the breaking down of the atom is a very poor
kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformations
of these atoms is talking moonshine.” Lord Ernest Rutherford, 1933.
“It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes
[nuclear generated] electrical energy too cheap to meter.” Lewis Strauss,
Chairman, US Atomic Energy Commission, 1954.
Half a century on, we know the truth lies somewhere between the
extremes3.
Nuclear power supplied 16% of global electricity generation in 2002, and
as of 31 December 2003 there were 439 NPPs operating worldwide (see
Table B-1). Their global energy availability factor has risen steadily from 74.2%
in 1991 to approximately 84% in 2003. In 2003 two new NPPs were connected
to the grid, a 665 MW(e) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) in China
and a 960 MW(e) pressurized water reactor (PWR) in the Republic of Korea.
In addition Canada restarted two units that had been shutdown. Construction
started on one new NPP in India. Four 50 MW(e) units in the UK were retired,
as were one 640 MW(e) unit in Germany and one 148 MW(e) unit in Japan.
Current expansion and growth prospects are centred in Asia. Eighteen of
the 31 reactors under construction4 at the end of 2003 are located in China,
India, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea. Twenty-one of the last 30 reactors to have been connected to the grid
are in the Far East and South Asia.
In Western Europe, capacity is likely to remain relatively constant despite
nuclear phase-outs in Belgium (which passed its phase-out law in
January 2003), Germany and Sweden. The most advanced planning for new
nuclear capacity is in Finland. In 2003 the utility Teollisuuden Voima Oy
selected Olkiluoto as the site for a fifth Finnish reactor and signed a contract
with a Framatome ANP – Siemens consortium for a 1600 MW(e) European
pressurized water reactor. The construction licence application for the reactor
was submitted to the Finnish Government in January 2003.

2
Annex II refers.
3
Annex III refers.
4
The total includes also Taiwan, China.

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4
TABLE B-1. NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN OPERATION AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN THE WORLD
(AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2003)
Total Operating
Reactors in Reactors under Nuclear Electricity
Experience to
Operation Construction Supplied in 2003
COUNTRY Dec. 2003
No of Total No of Total
TW·h % of Total Years Months
Units MW(e) Units MW(e)
ARGENTINA 2 935 1 692 7.03 8.59 50 7
ARMENIA 1 376 1.82 35.48 36 3
BELGIUM 7 5 760 44.61 55.46 191 7
BRAZIL 2 1 901 13.34 3.65 25 3
BULGARIA 4 2 722 16.04 37.71 129 2
CANADA 16 11 323 70.29 12.53 486 11
CHINA 8 5 977 3 2 610 41.59 2.18 39 1
CZECH REPUBLIC 6 3 548 25.87 31.09 74 10
FINLAND 4 2 656 21.82 27.32 99 4
FRANCE 59 63 363 420.70 77.68 1 346 2
GERMANY 18 20 643 157.44 28.10 648 0
HUNGARY 4 1 755 11.01 32.69 74 2
INDIA 14 2 550 8 3 622 16.37 3.30 223 5
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF 2 2 111 0 0
JAPAN 53 44 139 3 3 696 230.80 25.01 1 123 7
KOREA, DEM. PEOPLE’S REP. OF 1 1 040 0 0
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF 19 15 850 1 960 123.28 40.01 220 8
LITHUANIA 2 2 370 14.30 79.89 36 6
MEXICO 2 1 310 10.51 5.23 23 11
NETHERLANDS 1 449 3.80 4.48 59 0
PAKISTAN 2 425 1.81 2.37 35 10
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TABLE B-1. NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN OPERATION AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN THE WORLD
(AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2003)
Total Operating
Reactors in Reactors under Nuclear Electricity
Experience to
Operation Construction Supplied in 2003
COUNTRY Dec. 2003
No of Total No of Total
TW·h % of Total Years Months
Units MW(e) Units MW(e)
ROMANIA 1 655 1 655 4.54 9.33 7 6
RUSSIAN FEDERATION 30 20 793 3 2 825 138.39 16.54 761 4
SLOVAKIA 6 2 442 2 776 17.86 57.35 100 6
SLOVENIA 1 656 4.96 40.45 22 3
SOUTH AFRICA 2 1 800 12.66 6.05 38 3
SPAIN 9 7 584 59.36 23.64 219 2
SWEDEN 11 9 451 65.50 49.62 311 1
SWITZERLAND 5 3 220 25.93 39.73 143 10
UKRAINE 13 11 207 4 3 800 76.70 45.93 279 10
UNITED KINGDOM 27 12 052 85.31 23.70 1 329 8
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 104 98 298 763.74 19.86 2 871 8
Total 439 361 094 31 25 387 2524.03 11 143 5

Note: The total includes the following data in Taiwan, China:

Note: — 6 units, 4884 MW(e) in operation; 2 units, 2600 MW(e) under construction;
Note: — 37.37 TW·h of nuclear electricity generation, representing 21.5% of the total electricity generated in 2003;
Note: — 134 years and one month of total operating experience.

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In the Russian Federation, ROSENERGOATOM continued its

programme to extend licences at eleven NPPs. In 2003, the Russian nuclear
regulatory body, Gosatomnadzor, issued a five-year extension for Kola-1.
Bulgarian regulators issued a new ten-year licence for Kozloduy-4, the first
long term licence in Bulgaria, and later issued a similar eight-year extension for
Kozloduy-3. Romania, where licence extensions are required every two years,
approved an extension for Cernavoda to 2005.
In 2003, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved nine
licence extensions of 20 years each (for a total licensed life of 60 years for each
NPP), bringing the total number of approved licence extensions to nineteen by
the end of the year. It also approved eight upratings totalling 401 MW(th).
Three companies applied for the NRC’s new early site permits, which can be
reserved for future use. In Canada, near-term expansion is taking the form of
restarting some or all of the eight nuclear units (out of a Canadian total of 22)
that have been shut in recent years. The first two such restarts, Pickering A-4
and Bruce A-4, took place in 2003. Meanwhile, licences have been extended for
four units to 2005, and for eight units until 2008.
The key issues affecting near term nuclear expansion are economics,
safety and security, waste and proliferation resistance.
Economics: The front-loaded cost structure of NPPs means that existing
amortized well-run plants can be quite profitable while new NPPs are often
more expensive than alternatives. But economic attractiveness differs for
different countries, investors and markets. New NPPs are most attractive where
energy demand growth is rapid, alternative resources are scarce, energy supply
security is a priority or nuclear power is important for reducing air pollution
and GHG emissions. NPPs are also more attractive to government investors
responsible for energy security, GHG emissions, and long-term development
than for private investors who need rapid returns and receive no financial
benefit from nuclear power’s low GHG emissions or contribution to energy
security. Thus in deregulated, slower growth markets in the West, new NPPs
are generally less attractive. Anticipating entry-into-force of the Kyoto
Protocol, Europe is creating a GHG emissions market, and future investors
may thus realize a tangible benefit from nuclear power’s low GHG emissions.
The USA is exploring alternative ways to adjust near term market incentives to
encourage nuclear expansion in line with the longer term US National Energy
Policy.
Safety and Security: Although the Chernobyl accident still hangs over
nuclear power, the industry’s current safety record has considerably improved.
World Association of Nuclear Operators statistics for 2003 show a low stable
rate of unplanned automatic scrams at about one third the level at the
beginning of the 1990s, and a continuing decrease in the already low industrial

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NTR2004E.book Page 7 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

accident rate. However the challenges continue to be to ensure that nuclear

facilities worldwide are operated according to the highest levels of safety, to
improve the ‘succession planning’ for the nuclear industry, to ensure that
lessons learned in one country are effectively and thoroughly communicated to
all countries, and that these lessons are incorporated into the operational and
regulatory practices of all relevant nuclear facilities. More detailed safety
information and recent developments related to all nuclear applications are
presented in the Agency’s annual Nuclear Safety Review.
Actions regarding potential threats of nuclear and radiological terrorism
have taken on new urgency. Around the world, nuclear plants have
strengthened security forces, added barriers, and taken other protective
measures to address new perceptions of security risks. The Agency has greatly
expanded the scope and volume of its nuclear security activities. It is important
to understand how safety and security aspects relate to each other in the identi-
fication and protection of vulnerabilities in nuclear installations. The Agency
has increasingly been asked to provide guidance on how to reconcile the need
for transparency, in matters of nuclear and radiation safety, with the need for
confidentiality, from a security perspective. Effective risk management will
involve striking a balance that protects the security of sensitive information
while ensuring that safety concerns continue to be corrected in a transparent
manner, and that lessons learned, relating to both safety and security, are
shared for the benefit of the entire nuclear community.
Spent fuel and waste: As shown in Figure B-1 inventories of spent fuel
(SF) are growing due to limited reprocessing and delays in disposal. For high
level waste, the most progress on disposal facilities has been made in Finland,
Sweden and the USA. Finland’s Government and Parliament have approved a

500
450 SF Stored
400 SF Reprocessed
350
SF (1000 t)

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
FIG. B-1. Cumulative worldwide spent fuel reprocessing and storage, 1990–2020.

7
NTR2004E.book Page 8 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

decision ‘in principle’ to build a final repository for spent fuel near Olkiluoto.
Separate construction and operating licences will also be required.
Construction should start in 2011 and operation in 2020. Sweden has begun
detailed geological investigations at two candidate sites. These should run for
five or six years, and the Swedish nuclear fuel and waste management company,
SKB, hopes to make a final site proposal by about 2007. The Waste Isolation
Pilot Plant in the USA began accepting military transuranic waste in 1999 for
permanent disposal in bedded salt. In 2002, the US President and Congress
decided to proceed with the Yucca Mountain disposal site, operations at which
are planned to begin in 2010. Although the present focus remains on estab-
lishing national repositories, there is renewed interest in the possibility of
regional or international repositories. One reason is the interest noted below in
increasing international control of nuclear material as one effort to strengthen
the global non-proliferation regime. The other is the reality that for countries
with no good waste sites, or with small research and power programmes,
individual national disposal sites make no economic sense.
Proliferation resistance: Proliferation resistance is that characteristic of a
nuclear energy system that impedes the diversion or undeclared production of
nuclear material, or misuse of technology, in order to acquire nuclear weapons
or other nuclear explosive devices. The degree of proliferation resistance
results from a combination of, inter alia, technical design features, operational
modalities, institutional arrangements and safeguards measures. Most recently,
in particular in the context of ongoing work for innovative reactors and fuel
cycles, increased attention is being paid to the issue of intrinsic proliferation
resistance features, i.e. those features that result from the technical design of
nuclear energy systems, as well as to extrinsic proliferation resistance measures,
i.e. those measures that result from States’ decisions and undertakings related
to nuclear energy systems. The ongoing work on new reactor types and fuel
cycles includes in all cases considerations about such proliferation resistance
features and measures that help ensure that future nuclear energy systems will
continue to be an unattractive means to acquire materials for a nuclear
weapons programme.

B.2. The Future

B.2.1. Medium term projections

Each year the Agency publishes updated medium term nuclear energy
projections, and in 2003 these were extended for the first time to 2030 (see
Table B-2). The low projection essentially assumes no new NPPs beyond what

8
NTR2004E.book Page 9 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

TABLE B-2. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONTRIBUTION BY NUCLEAR

POWER

2002 2010 2020 2030

Country Group Total Nuclear Total Nuclear Total Nuclear Total Nuclear
Elect. Elect. Elect. Elect.
TW·h TW·h % TW·h TW·h % TW·h TW·h % TW·h TW·h %

North America 04779 851.1 17.8 05034 874 17.0 05784 870.0 15.0 06451 844 13.0
05444 894 16.0 06709 939.0 14.0 08146 944 12.0
Latin America 01078 28.6 2.7 01178 29 2.5 01628 47.0 2.9 02227 30 1.3.0
01427 38 2.7 02291 50.0 2.2 03758 92 2.4.0
Western Europe 03084 880.2 28.5 03352 858 26.0 03634 823.0 23.0 03942 564 14.0
03609 893 25.0 04687 961.0 20.0 06061 1090 18.0
Eastern Europe 01758 298.5 17.0 01884 319 17.0 02174 423.0 19.0 02463 378 15.0
02074 399 19.0 02867 552.0 19.0 04133 611 15.0
Africa 00459 12.0 2.6 00538 13 2.5 00699 14.0 2.0 00876 14 1.6
00612 14 2.3 00973 24.0 2.4 01530 60 3.9
Middle East and South Asia 01176 19.6 1.7 01342 41 3.1 01805 53.0 3.0 02327 70 3.0
01626 47 2.9 02596 100.0 3.9 03946 194 4.9
South East Asia and the Pacific 00600 00736 00934 01162
00786 01119 5.5 0.5 01584 18 1.2
Far East 03157 484.3 15.3 03399 695 20.0 04199 855.0 20.0 05073 981 19.0
04296 702 16.0 06605 1125.0 17.0 09830 1361 14.0
Low Estimate 16090 2574.2 16.0 17463 2830 16.0 20857 3085.0 15.0 24520 2881 12.0
World Total
High Estimate 19873 2987 15.0 27848 3756.0 13.0 38989 4369 11.0

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NTR2004E.book Page 10 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

is already being built or firmly planned today, plus the retirement of old NPPs.
The projection was revised upward in 2003 and projects a 20% increase in
global nuclear generation up until the end of 2020 (compared to a 2%
projected increase last year), followed by a decrease, resulting in global nuclear
generation in 2030 only 12% higher than in 2002. Nuclear power’s share of
global electricity generation decreases after 2010 to 12% in 2030, compared to
16% in 2002. Increases are most substantial in the Far East, and decreases are
greatest in Western Europe.
In the high projection, global nuclear generation steadily increases by a
total of 46% through 2020 (unchanged from last year’s high projection) and by
70% through 2030. There are increases in all regions, again led by the Far East.
However, overall electricity generation increases even faster than nuclear
power, causing nuclear power’s share of overall electricity to decline. By 2030
the nuclear share is down to 11%.

B.2.2. Sustainable development and climate change

For the longer term, the key question is how long nuclear resources might
last. Known conventional resources are sufficient for a number of decades at
current usage rates as shown in Table B-3, although the period for which
resources are sufficient decreases the more nuclear power is assumed to grow
in the future. As is also shown in the table, undiscovered conventional
resources increase the period for which resources are sufficient to several
hundred years if the necessary (and substantial) exploration and development
investments are made. Unconventional resources, including phosphate deposits
and seawater, contain vast amounts of very dilute uranium, and their use could
fuel nuclear energy for millennia if advanced extraction methods are
developed. Currently, only laboratory-scale quantities have been extracted
from seawater, and the projected cost is approximately five to ten times the
cost of conventionally mined uranium. Significant effort and investment would
be needed before these resources could become available.
Thorium is three times as abundant in the earth’s crust as uranium.
Natural thorium is essentially 100% thorium-232, which is not fissile. It is
however fertile, absorbing slow neutrons to become fissile thorium-233. Thus a
future thorium-based fuel cycle to generate electricity from this resource could
significantly extend the lifetime of global nuclear resources.
Nuclear energy, as well as renewables, could meet a larger share of the
world’s growing energy needs through the development of hydrogen fuel
cell vehicles and other hydrogen applications. Hydrogen can be produced
from water using electricity, the principal product of nuclear energy and of
renewable technologies like wind power. An economical conversion process,

10
NTR2004E.book Page 11 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

TABLE B-3. YEARS OF RESOURCE AVAILABILITY FOR VARIOUS

NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES5

Years of 2002 world Years of 2002 world

Years of 2002 world
nuclear electricity nuclear electricity
nuclear electricity
Reactor/Fuel cycle generation with generation with
generation with
known conventional total conventional
total resources (3)
resources (1) resources (2)

Current fuel cycle

85 270 8 200
(LWR, once-through)
Recycling fuel cycle
(plutonium only, one 100 300 9 200
recycle)
Light water and fast
reactors (mixed with 130 410 12 000
recycling)
Pure fast reactor fuel
cycle 2 500 8 500 240 000
with recycling

(1) Known conventional resources include all cost categories of reasonably assured
resources (RAR) and estimated additional resources – category I (EAR-I) for a total
of 4 588 700 tU.6
(2) Total conventional resources include all cost categories of reasonably assured
resources, estimated additional resources, and speculative resources for a total of
14 382 500 tU.
(3) Total resources assume conventional resources of 14 382 500 tU, plus 90% of
phosphate resources of 22 000 000 tU (= 19 800 000 tU), plus 10 % of the estimated
seawater uranium resources of 4 000 000 000 tU (= 400 000 000 tU) for a total of
434 182 500 tU.
56
Attention!!! Before printing change colour to white

coupled with economical hydrogen distribution and end-use technologies,

would make it possible for nuclear energy and renewables to help fuel the
transport sector, which is now 95% fuelled by oil, and expand nuclear power’s

5
OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency,
Uranium 2003: Resources, Production and Demand, OECD, Paris, 2004.
6
Full definitions of RAR and EAR-I are given in Uranium 2003 : Resources,
Production and Demand. Briefly, RAR refers to uranium occurring in known mineral
deposits and recoverable with current technology. EAR-I refers to uranium, in addition
to RAR, that is inferred to occur based on direct geological evidence.

11
NTR2004E.book Page 12 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

contribution to industrial heat supplies. There are new major hydrogen

research initiatives underway, particularly in China, Europe, Japan and the
USA. All these initiatives also include innovative nuclear designs that would
produce hydrogen more directly without first having to generate electricity.
No progress was made in 2003 on the Kyoto Protocol, which would help
make nuclear power’s avoidance of GHG emissions valuable to private
investors. Following the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD)
in 2002, major deliberations on energy and sustainable development are not
scheduled until the thirteenth session of the UN Commission on Sustainable
Development (CSD) in 2006–2007. The WSSD had endorsed earlier CSD
decisions on nuclear energy. These are that countries agree to disagree about
whether nuclear power is an important contributor to sustainable devel-
opment, while they all agree that the choice rests with individual countries.

B.2.3. Advanced fission and fusion7

In response to the challenges currently facing nuclear power as outlined

in Section B.1, many countries are working to improve the economics, safety
and proliferation resistance of advanced reactor–fuel cycle systems. For
advanced NPP designs, efforts are focussed on making plants simpler to
operate, inspect, maintain and repair. In the near term, most new NPPs are
likely to be evolutionary designs building on proven systems while incorpo-
rating technological advances and often economies of scale. For the longer
term, the focus is on innovative designs, several of which are in the small-to-
medium range (up to 700 MW(e)). These envision construction with factory-
built components, including complete modular units for fast on-site installation,
creating possible economies of series production instead of economies of scale.
Other advantages foreseen for smaller units are easier financing, greater
suitability for small electricity grids or remote locations, and their potential for
district heating, seawater desalination and other non-electric applications. All
should increase their attractiveness for developing countries.
Important efforts on large evolutionary LWR designs are underway in
China, France, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation
and the USA. The main efforts on small and medium-size evolutionary LWR
designs are in China, France, Japan, the Russian Federation and the USA.
Innovative LWR designs (i.e. those that incorporate radical conceptual changes
in design approaches or system configuration) are being developed in
Argentina, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation and the USA.

7
Annex IV refers.

12
NTR2004E.book Page 13 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

Both Canada and India are working on advanced heavy water reactor
designs, and a number of advanced gas cooled reactor designs are being
developed with participation from China, France, Germany, Japan, the Russian
Federation, South Africa, the UK and the USA. For liquid metal cooled fast
reactors, development activities are underway in China, France, India, Japan,
the Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation. Development activities for
lead alloy and sodium liquid metal cooled fast reactor systems and for gas
(helium) cooled fast reactors are being conducted within the Generation IV
International Forum (GIF) and in the Russian Federation. Research on fast
neutron spectrum hybrid systems (e.g. accelerator driven systems) is underway
in the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, the USA and eight EU
countries.
Complementing the many initiatives above are two major international
efforts to promote innovation — GIF and the Agency’s International Project
on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). Members of GIF
are Argentina, Brazil, Canada, France, Japan, the Republic of Korea, South
Africa, Switzerland, the UK, the USA and Euratom. GIF has reviewed a wide
range of innovative concepts and, in 2002, selected six types of reactor systems
for future bilateral and multilateral cooperation: gas cooled fast reactors, lead
alloy liquid metal cooled reactors, molten salt reactors, sodium liquid metal
cooled reactors, supercritical water cooled reactors and very high temperature
gas reactors.
Members of the Agency’s INPRO project are Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria,
Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, the
Netherlands, Pakistan, the Russian Federation, Spain, South Africa,
Switzerland, Turkey and the European Commission. INPRO published an
initial report in 2003 that outlined the potential of nuclear power and specified
guidelines and a methodology for evaluating innovative concepts. It is now
validating that methodology through test applications in a series of case studies.
Much of the current experimental and theoretical research on nuclear
fusion is focused on the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor
(ITER). ITER’s ‘engineering design activities’ stage has been completed, and
the project is nearing a decision on site selection. In 2003, it gained three new
members, with China, the Republic of Korea and the USA (which had
originally left ITER in 1999) now joining the EU, Japan and the Russian
Federation. The two proposed sites are in France and Japan.
Research also continues on other magnetic confinement approaches, and
inertial confinement is being developed intensively by national programmes in
France and the USA. The National Ignition Facility in the USA is scheduled for
completion in 2008.

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NTR2004E.book Page 14 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

C. APPLICATIONS FOR FOOD, WATER AND HEALTH

C.1. Nuclear Techniques in Crop Improvement

Nuclear techniques have played, and continue to play, a significant role in

crop improvement. Applications are varied, but major areas of impact are:
germplasm enhancement in crop plants through induced mutation;
development of genetic markers for genetic fingerprinting, genetic mapping
and diagnostics through several techniques including radiolabeling of DNA
markers; and gene discovery through targeted mutagenesis.
Induced mutations, created by gamma rays, X-rays, fast neutrons or
chemicals, have provided some major successes in plant breeding. In many
cases new phenotypes, such as the semi-dwarfs in rice and barley, revolu-
tionized the appearance of the crop. Mutant varieties of oil seeds and pulses are
now being released for commercial cultivation. More subtle changes, but
equally important, have been created for disease and pest resistance,
nutritional and processing quality. Beneficial mutants have been captured and
exploited by plant breeders: 2316 officially registered mutant varieties are
listed in over 160 plant species worldwide (FAO/IAEA Mutant Variety
Database).
The improvement of screening methods has led to resurgence in applica-
tions of radiation-induced mutations. For example salt tolerant rice mutants
have been obtained by gamma-irradiation at Seibersdorf. Selection was made
easy by a rapid hydroponics test in which 2000 seedlings were screened. Four
mutants were selected and salt tolerance verified in the field. The mutant lines
show no adverse characters and rice breeders of the International Rice
Research Institute are actively breeding with them. The target area for salt
tolerant rice cultivars in Asia is estimated at 618 000 ha.
The explosion in DNA sequence information has led to a shift in genetic
studies from structural to functional. Gene function is now a major objective in
genetics. Mutants are a key element in this research as they provide a rapid
screen for the systematic discovery and functional analysis of genes. TILLING
(Targeting Induced Local Lesions In Genomes) is one such technique, a
reverse genetics technique in which large mutant populations can be systemati-
cally screened using DNA sequence data.

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C.2. Nuclear Techniques in Crop Protection

In recent years, the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has become a more
cost-effective technology for fruit fly suppression, capable of competing in cost
with conventional insecticide-based suppression.
One of the most relevant improvements has been the development of
genetic sexing strains (GSS) such as the male-only medfly temperature
sensitive lethal (tsl) strains, which have reduced by half transportation and
release costs and have increased the effectiveness of the sterile males in the
field at least by three fold. The use of male-only strains is now the norm for
medfly SIT and countries that have acquired medfly rearing capacity have now
incorporated the GSS into their mass production processes.
It has been estimated that the potential demand for sterile medflies in the
Mediterranean basin alone amounts to at least 4 billion sterile males per week,
close to the total number currently being produced worldwide. Continuous
improvements and new scientific developments augur a promising future for
SIT for a number of species of economic importance such as false codling moth,
codling moth, date moth, bollworms and various other pest insects, including
sweet potato weevils. Also development of genetic sexing strains for other key
insect pests to enhance the cost-effectiveness of SIT technology will continue to
be a focus of research and development.

C.3. Improving Livestock Productivity and Health

Screwworm eradication using SIT from all of North and Central America
at an overall cost of ca. $1 billion, is estimated to provide annual benefits to the
livestock industry in this region that exceed the overall investment in the
eradication campaign of over 45 years. However, in Africa tsetse fly
transmitted trypanosomosis makes the introduction of productive mixed
farming and livestock systems impossible. Overall losses due to trypanosomosis
in the agricultural gross domestic products of tsetse-infested countries in Sub-
Saharan Africa are estimated at $4.75 billion per year.
Internationally agreed priority areas for agricultural development have
been identified, where tsetse and trypanosomosis intervention, including the
SIT component, would likely generate quick, tangible and sustainable benefits
in the context of agricultural development and ecologically appropriate
utilization of resources. Internationally concerted action in these priority areas
is most advanced in the Ethiopian Southern Rift Valley, where preliminary
cost-benefit analyses predict a break-even point of benefits over investments
made after 5–6 years and an internal rate of return over a 12-year period

15
NTR2004E.book Page 16 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

between 33% and 43%. The Arab Organization for Agricultural Development,
the FAO and the Agency continue to collaborate in a joint regional feasibility
project against the Old World screwworm fly in the West Asia region.
Research aimed at improving animal production and health in the
developed world has been revolutionized by recent developments in biotech-
nology, in particular those related to gene-based technologies. These develop-
ments enable new and innovative approaches to find unique solutions to both
emerging and old problems.
In animal production, the characterization of livestock genomes will
enable the identification of advantageous genes, such as those responsible for
natural resistance to diseases or the ability to thrive under climatic or
nutritional stress. Hybridization and related techniques that employ 32P and
other isotopic markers together with non-isotopic molecular tools for identifi-
cation of genes, microsatellites and quantitative trait loci will allow the
selection and breeding of resistant animals, thus enhancing or replacing
conventional methods of disease control.
Notwithstanding developments, the more ‘mature’ nuclear technologies
such as radioimmunoassay (RIA), employing 125I to measure hormones and
metabolites in the blood or milk of animals, continue to be widely used. RIA
for the hormone progesterone is an indispensable tool that provides
information both on problems in breeding management by farmers as well as
deficiencies in the artificial breeding services provided to them by government,
co-operative or private organizations. RIA is also a cheap and robust method
for the detection of harmful residues in food of animal origin, such as those
arising from the misuse of veterinary drugs.
Molecular diagnostics have entered an exciting era in animal health,
increasing the sensitivity and specificity of tests to detect animal diseases. An
important goal of many diagnostic devices is the ability to perform point-
of-care testing to ensure speedy and accurate pathogen detection. Improve-
ments in instrumentation and its availability will enable technologies such as
‘35S/32P phospho-imaging gene sequencing’ to be implemented in developing
countries. Developments in microfabrication technology, microfluidics and
nanotechnology are promising to produce more sensitive, rapid and robust
devices that have the ability to perform under diverse conditions. Lab-on-
a-chip devices offer the ability to integrate sample processing, target amplifi-
cation and detection in a single miniaturized device. Leading on from such
technologies will be the development of diagnostic kits based on biochips
capable of detecting multiple infective agents (i.e. antigen) or presence of
pathogen (i.e. antibody) in a single, highly sensitive, specific and fast assay.
Their adaptation for field use will clearly revolutionize the diagnosis,

16
NTR2004E.book Page 17 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

prevention and control of devastating livestock diseases in developing

countries8.

C.4. Food Safety

Currently 70 irradiation facilities are in use in over 33 countries

worldwide for ensuring the safety and quality of foods and for satisfying
quarantine regulations in trade, including meat products, fresh fruits, spices and
dried vegetable seasonings.
The 26th Session of the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Rome, Italy,
30 June – 7 July 2003) adopted the Revised Codex General Standard for
Irradiated Foods and the Codex Recommended International Code of Practice
for Radiation Processing of Food as final Codex texts. In addition, the 5th
Session of the Interim Commission on Phytosanitary Measures (ICPM)
(Rome, Italy, 7-11 April 2003), the governing body of the International Plant
Protection Convention (IPPC), adopted Guidelines for the Use of Irradiation as
a Phytosanitary Measure. Both the Codex and the IPPC standards have legal
status under the WTO/SPS Agreement.
There will be an increasing need for nuclear techniques to ensure the
safety and quality of foods and to validate and standardize low cost analytical
methods for food contaminants and residues suitable for developing countries.
Co-ordinated efforts in these areas will strengthen food security and ensure the
facilitation of international trade in foodstuffs through an integrated approach
covering the entire food chain.

C.5. Towards Sustainable Land and Water Management

The WSSD in Johannesburg, September 2002, re-affirmed land

degradation as one of the major global environment and sustainable
development challenges of the 21st century. The Agency has focused attention
on the use of radionuclide tracers, in particular 137Cs, to obtain quantitative
estimates of soil erosion and deposition on agricultural landscapes, which will
provide retrospective information on medium-term (30–40 years) erosion and
deposition rates and spatial patterns of soil redistribution, without the need for
long term monitoring programmes. Currently over 40 research groups have the
capacity to conduct these investigations.

8
Annex V refers.

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NTR2004E.book Page 18 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

The FAO/IAEA programme is actively involved in further research and

development on combined use of 137Cs with other environmental radionuclides,
such as 210Pb and 7Be to assess both erosion and sedimentation rates and
patterns at several spatial and temporal scales. Such information will be
valuable in the identification of promising soil conservation measures for
controlling and mitigating soil erosion and sedimentation and development of
strategies for sustainable watershed management and environmental
protection.
The World Water Forum held in March 2003 in Kyoto, Japan, recognized
the challenge of the urgent need to effectively increase both the Crop Water
Productivity and Water Use Efficiency of the agricultural sector. Research into
using nuclear techniques to develop practical tools and guidelines for the
enhancement of water productivity under various management and climatic
conditions and selection of plants efficient for drought prone environments is
being pursued. The carbon isotope discrimination technique has shown
potential as a valuable tool for identifying drought tolerant genotypes.

C.6. Water Resources

Improved understanding of the earth’s water cycle has been widely

recognized as one of the key elements of scientific information necessary for
developing policies toward a sustainable management of freshwater resources.
The applications of isotopes in hydrology, arising from naturally imparted
‘isotopic fingerprints’ of water, helps to provide rapid hydrological information
for large areas at low cost.
Twelve isotope or isotope pairs are commonly used in isotope hydrology,
with stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen being the most frequently used.
Tritium and helium-3 are increasingly being used for age-dating of young
groundwater, reflecting the dominant role of groundwater in meeting
freshwater demands worldwide.
Isotope techniques are routinely used for groundwater resource
evaluations by the US Geological Survey (USGS) where most of the regional
aquifer system analysis programmes have employed isotope techniques for
estimating groundwater recharge. Similar examples of the use of isotopes in
groundwater management are found in Australia, France, Germany, India,
United Kingdom, and a number of other countries. Recently, the application of
isotopes for managing surface water resource and to improve the under-
standing of climate change on water resources has been advanced by a compre-
hensive study of the isotopic compositions of most major rivers in the USA.
More than seventeen research groups participating in an Agency co-ordinated

18
NTR2004E.book Page 19 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

research project are now designing a global network of isotope monitoring in

large rivers.
Isotopic composition of precipitation collected through the national and
global networks of monitoring stations has provided a new dimension for
Atmospheric Global Circulation Models (AGCMs) that are used for recon-
structing paleoclimatic conditions in support of global change research. Institu-
tions in France, Germany, and the United States of America have recently
expanded the use of global isotope data of precipitation to better represent and
verify the simulation of hydrological processes in AGCMs. Models based on
isotope data have improved process understanding and are considered to more
reliably simulate past climatic conditions.
Over 250 participants from 69 countries recently discussed the past,
present and future of isotope applications in hydrology and climate research at
a symposium convened by the Agency in 2003. The symposium concluded that
isotope applications will continue to be important for groundwater resource
management and are likely to be critical in efforts to understand and predict
climatic and atmospheric processes. This important role for isotopes in under-
standing past climate change also holds the key to predicting future changes —
changes that may not only influence global temperatures, but also energy
needs, availability of drinking water, and food security.

C.7. Human Health

C.7.1. Nutrition

Some conventional methods used to evaluate health and nutritional

status can be invasive, inaccurate, insensitive to small variations, and not easily
transferred to the field. The alternative nuclear and isotope techniques are
increasingly regarded as essential tools in applied nutrition and research.
Isotopic technology has been effective to build programmes and guidelines
aimed at reducing many forms of malnutrition. Some of the main techniques
are isotopic dilution technique for body composition analysis; double labelled
water technique for energy metabolism; trace mineral bioavailability using
stable isotopes; vitamin A body storage determination; dual X-ray-absorpti-
ometry measurements for bone mineral density; and 13C breath test for
tracking infection.

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NTR2004E.book Page 20 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

C.7.2. Nuclear medicine

Diagnostic applications
Nuclear medicine imaging and non-imaging functional studies offer
diagnostic and research applications of internally administered open sources of
radioactivity. There is also an increase of therapeutic applications. These
techniques are used in several specialties such as cardiology, oncology,
nephrology, neurology, infections and genetics.
Nuclear medicine imaging and non-imaging functional studies: Gamma
Camera and SPECT (single photon emission computed tomography) are used
routinely in clinical medicine providing both static and dynamic information
leading to diagnosis and prognosis of diseases, determination of organ function
and valuable information about treatment response. Positron emission
tomography (PET) has emerged as a powerful tool to diagnose disease earlier,
determine its extent and response to treatment, estimate residual disease after
treatment, predict prognosis and understand bio-molecular behaviour. PET is
making rapid strides in the developed countries but complexity and cost restrict
its routine clinical use in most developing countries.
The use of gamma probes for the detection and biopsy of the sentinel
lymph node has revolutionized patient management in surgical oncology and
changed the concept of managing malignant melanomas and breast and colon
cancers.
Molecular nuclear medicine techniques: Molecular methods have appli-
cations in rapid disease screening and diagnosis, pathogenesis, guiding
therapeutic decisions, monitoring and management, epidemiological investiga-
tions, immunology, pharmacogenomics and molecular designing of new drugs
and vaccines. A key element involving these techniques is the amplification of
pathogen specific gene sequence by polymerase chain reaction, which is used to
detect mutations responsible for drug resistance in malaria and tuberculosis, as
well as sub typing of HIV and designing vaccines against it.
Radiopharmacology and radioimmunotechnology: Radiopharmacology
deals with tracer kinetics and development and evaluation of various radiop-
harmaceuticals. The introduction of new tracers and innovative applications
may have a significant impact on health care services such as oncology,
cardiology and infections.
Medical radioimmunoassay and immunotechnology constitute a
significant component of the in vitro diagnostic system for quantification of
changes in proteins as well as other important intermediate metabolites in
disease states especially in developing countries. They are also being used in
developmental work to explore novel methods for patent applications, and as
reference standards for verification of non-isotopic assays.

20
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Therapy
High-dose rate brachytherapy: In recent years, high-dose rate (HDR)
brachytherapy has become a very important component of the treatment of
uterine cervix cancer. In contrast to low-dose rate brachytherapy equipment
that had been traditionally employed but could only treat 2–3 patients each
week, HDR allows dozens of patients to be treated each day along with unprec-
edented possibilities for radiation dose optimization.
Profiling of genes and proteins: Genomic and proteomic revolutions in
biology and medicine mean that large-scale microarrays have recently become
available that can analyse several thousand genes or proteins in a short period
of time. This technology holds great promise for pre-selecting future patients
and/or cancers with regard to their response to radiation.
Stem-cell therapeutics: Radiotherapy has long been utilized as a part of
the preparatory regimen for bone-marrow transplantation. Recent research
suggests that radiotherapy, in conjunction with cellular or stem cell transplan-
tation, could also play a valuable role in the regeneration of other organs as
well, such as the liver, pancreas and the central nervous system.

Dosimetry and medical radiation physics

The proper measurement of ionizing radiation (dosimetry) is crucial to
enable the safe and effective use of nuclear technology for diagnosis and
treatment of patients. Over 250 participants from 62 countries discussed issues
in dosimetry at a recent symposium convened by the Agency in Vienna. More
than 90 recommendations were prepared to guide future work highlighting the
needs: for more training of health care workers in the provision of infrastruc-
tural services; for appropriate and affordable equipment to sustain diagnostic
and treatment technologies; and for the development of physical standards,
comparisons and audits of quality assurance and control programmes to
demonstrate the safe and effective application of nuclear technology to
patients.

21
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D. APPLICATIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL AND

SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

D.1. Protection of the Marine and Terrestrial Environments

D.1.1. Marine environment

The protection of the marine environment and management of ocean

resources are particularly complex and difficult. Of key importance is the
protection of the socio-economically important coastal zones, near where 40%
of the world’s population lives and which produce the major portion of the
world’s seafood.
Among the most important problems facing the coastal environment
have been public health and safety issues, ecosystem health, eutrophication
(over-fertilization leading to oxygen deprivation), harmful blooms and other
hazards such as coastal flooding and sea level changes. The phenomenon of
‘harmful algal blooms’ (HABs) has had wide economic impacts on the fishing
and seafood industries, and tourism. Nuclear techniques in the form of receptor
binding assays have helped, as an analytical tool, to counter the growing
incidence of HABs which need rapid, sensitive and inexpensive assays which
are sensitive to low toxin concentrations.
Radioactive decay characteristics of certain natural radionuclides make
them excellent geochronological tools for dating e.g. the time sequence of
sediment layering in certain marine areas. Knowledge of the timing of sedimen-
tation events helps to establish temporal trends of marine pollutants. A wide
variety of radioisotopes as analogues for heavy metals, particularly the gamma-
emitters, are useful tools to trace the transport, behaviour and fate of heavy
metal contaminants in water, sediments and marine organisms under
laboratory conditions.

D.1.2. Terrestrial environment

Prevention of the release of pollutants

Acidic pollutants such as sulphur and nitrogen oxides are emitted during
fossil fuel combustion, leading to acidic rain and smog formation. Electron
beams modify the sulphur and nitrogen oxides in the off-gases and allow them
to react with added ammonia to produce clean effluents and fertilizer. The key
advantage of the radiation treatment is that the toxic compounds are
transformed into useful and harmless products. The electron beam flue gas

22
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treatment plants are operating in coal-fired plants in China and Poland (in both
cases purification of flue gases from 100 MW(e) blocks), with high efficiency of
SOx and NOx removal. Nuclear technologies, involving electron beams, electro-
magnetic radiation or isotopic sources, have also been used for decontami-
nating and disinfecting aqueous effluents, sewage waters, industrial
wastewaters and sludge by destroying harmful and toxic organic substances and
micro-organisms. A combined technology, using an electron beam and ozone,
has been developed for the removal of chlorinated hydrocarbons from drinking
water. Another application permits the radiation sanitation of biological sludge
from biological wastewater treatment, allowing the sludge eventually to be
used as fertilizer.

Environmental monitoring and research

Nuclear techniques and measurement methods are also widely used for
environmental monitoring and research using natural and artificial radionu-
clides as indicators for atmospheric, terrestrial and marine transport processes.
The advent of radionuclide methods in geochronology has revolutionized
the understanding of modern sedimentary processes in aquatic systems.
Methods based on 210Pb and 87/86Sr are used as quantitative tools in marine and
lake sediment geochronology. In addition 137Cs and other natural and anthro-
pogenic radionuclides strongly absorbed at the soil surface, present at very low
but still measurable concentrations, have been used to study soil erosion and
soil deposition phenomena.

Humanitarian demining
Abandoned landmines from past and present armed conflicts continue to
pose a threat to populations in more than 60 countries in the developing world.
A typical anti-personnel landmine contains very little metal and is therefore
difficult to detect by normal metal detection means. Very sensitive metal
detectors can detect low-metal content landmines, but they cannot distinguish
between mines and other small, buried metal objects, such as shrapnel
fragments. A nuclear method based on interrogation by neutrons is one of the
few methods that enable non-intrusive elemental analysis of buried objects,
detecting the hydrogen content of the mine explosive. An instrument based on
a pulsed electrostatic neutron generator (PELAN, Pulsed Elemental Analysis
by Neutrons) for humanitarian demining has been the basis for much research
and shows promise. Tests showed that the PELAN device could reliably
identify anti-tank mines with 5–6 kg of TNT buried under 15 cm of soil and
anti-personnel mines with 200g of TNT under 5 cm of soil. A definitive
conclusion could not be reached in the case of detecting smaller anti-personnel
mines, and detection limits still need to be improved. To achieve full success,

23
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PELAN would have to be integrated with a suitable anomaly detection device,

for example a metal detector or ground penetrating radar, for field applica-
tions. Also, hand held devices have been developed based on neutron backscat-
tering for the detection of plastic landmines in dry areas. These instruments
have been tested under field like conditions and it is foreseen that these types
of devices will be used by the demining community, in combination with a
metal detector, for the detection of plastic landmines.

D.2. Radiation Technology for Clean and Safe Industries9

A vast variety of nuclear techniques are available for industrial, environ-

mental, medical or research applications. Radiation and isotopic technology
such as gamma irradiation, electron beam or ion beam as well as nucleonic
gauges, radiotracers and sealed sources, non-destructive testing and nuclear
analytical techniques are used for process control, material modifications, to
reduce harmful industrial emissions and to reprocess waste streams, and many
other uses.
In addition to the economic impacts of radiation and radioisotope appli-
cations they produce major impacts on different aspects of social and industrial
development, for example in human health (radiation sterilization of medical
products, blood and transplanting grafts irradiation); environmental protection
(electron beam flue gas and wastewater treatment, gamma rays sludge hygieni-
zation); clean and safe industry (radiotracer leakages testing and non
destructive testing of installations, pipes and tanks); enhancement of product
quality (nuclear analytical techniques, non-destructive testing); process optimi-
zation (radiotracers and nucleonic control systems); raw materials exploration
and exploitation (on-line processing, borehole logging), and security (cargo
inspections, governmental mail irradiation).
There are now more than 160 industrial gamma irradiators worldwide,
65 units being in developing countries. More than 20% of these gamma
irradiators have activities over 1 MCi. The total number of accelerators
worldwide exceeds 13 000. New environmental applications demand
development of high power, reliable accelerators, and the most powerful
radiation processing facility, over 1 MW total power, has been constructed for
power plant emitted flue gases purification in Poland.
The relatively new field of nanotechnology uses electron beam
technology for some applications, such as lithography. Nanometric structures

9
Annex VI refers.

24
NTR2004E.book Page 25 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

have already been tested, and other possible applications are concerned with
conductive and multiphase polymers.
Radiotracers in industry and environment provide invaluable tools in
many processes, for example in oil fields and refineries, chemical and metallur-
gical industries and wastewater purification installations. Common radioiso-
topes for tracers are 3H, 82Br, 99mTc, 140La, 24Na and 131I.

D.2.1. Nuclear analytical techniques

Nuclear analytical techniques play an important role in certification of

element content in a variety of materials, and are of particular value in interna-
tional trade because legal limits have to be observed for food items and
analytical results have to be based on mutual recognition, which is obtained if
laboratories work according to internationally accepted quality standards such
as the ISO 17025. New trends in nuclear applications can be seen in the
development of robust, automated and portable instruments, which can be
used under laboratory as well as under field conditions. Nuclear techniques
also serve in preserving human cultural heritage. Neutron activation analysis is
a very sensitive multi-elemental analysis for trace element fingerprinting to
distinguish original specimens from fakes, and has been applied to coins and
other metallic artefacts, stones, pottery and ceramics.

D.2.2. Nuclear desalination10

Interest in nuclear desalination is driven by the expanding global demand

for fresh water and by developments in small and medium sized reactors that
may be more suitable for desalination than large power reactors. In the field of
nuclear desalination, Japan has accumulated over 125 reactor-years experience
and Kazakhstan 26 reactor-years before shutting down the Aktau fast reactor
in 1999. Egypt has completed a feasibility study of a nuclear co-generation
plant (electricity and water) at the El-Dabaa site. France has completed a joint
European study on reactor development for nuclear desalination (the
EURODESAL project). India is setting up a 6300 m3/d hybrid multi-stage
flash (MSF)-reverse osmosis (RO) nuclear desalination demonstration plant at
Kalpakkam. The RO plant is commissioned and the full plant commissioning is
expected in 2004. Canada has completed the functional testing of a preheat
reverse osmosis process and is considering a pre-commercialization
demonstration programme. China has carried out a pre-feasibility study of the

10
Annex VII refers.

25
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Shandong nuclear seawater desalination plant in the Yantai area using an

NHR-200, and Indonesia is conducting a preliminary economic feasibility
study of nuclear desalination on Madura Island. The Republic of Korea
completed the basic design of the SMART concept in 2002, and a six-year
project for the construction of a one-fifth scale pilot plant SMART-P was
started to verify the integral performance of the SMART system and nuclear
desalination. Pakistan is continuing its efforts to set up a 4800 m3/d nuclear
desalination demonstration plant to be connected to a PHWR at KANUPP. In
the Russian Federation, design work continues for a floating nuclear heat and
power plant based on marine reactor technologies. Construction of the first
plant is scheduled to begin in 2005 or 2006 in the northern European part of
Russia. Plans call for a floating unit with two KLT-40S reactors to be used as
the power source for nuclear desalination facilities. Tunisia is planning a
pre-feasibility study of a customized nuclear desalination plant for specific site
conditions.

E. SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY AND

APPLICATIONS

Nuclear technology and techniques produce energy, make our food safer
and more abundant, help prevent, diagnose, and cure disease, optimize
sustainable water use, and protect the environment. Nuclear techniques have
made significant contributions and have the potential to contribute much more
in key areas of concern to the international community as identified by the
World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg 2002 — water,
energy, health, agriculture and biodiversity.
Their impact on future generations needs to be understood, because they
affect a society’s resources, institutions, public knowledge, human capital,
manufactured capital and natural capital. In an increasingly globalized world,
national or regional contributions may also benefit the global community and
not just a single society. On the national and regional levels, nuclear sciences
and applications are core disciplines on the road to a technologically advanced
society. All countries take advantage of nuclear applications, especially in
health care. While utilization increases dramatically with countries’ social,
technological, and economic development, significant socio-economic benefits
can be obtained at all levels of development. To realize these benefits, radio-

26
NTR2004E.book Page 27 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

logical contributions have to be properly embedded into major economic

activities such as agriculture, health and energy11.
Accurate assessments of their costs, benefits, and risks are needed, and
continuing assessment is needed to ensure that the benefits of nuclear applica-
tions are available in those areas where it is worth utilising the atom. Major
benefits have accrued and remain available to both developed and developing
countries. Investments in the requisite technical, scientific, and regulatory
infrastructure can be rewarded relatively quickly, even though some aspects
may need many years to mature. The transfer by the Agency of human,
regulatory, technical, and scientific nuclear capabilities are important activities
for socio-economic development, but need to be put into context in terms of
‘value added’ or of comparative cost effectiveness with non-nuclear techniques.
Assessment techniques need to be adapted to the relevant nuclear or isotopic
application and studies need to define realistic boundary conditions for socio-
economic impact assessments to be meaningful. The challenges of correctly
assessing the impact of nuclear sciences and applications are large, but the
results could provide clear justifications to decision makers on economic and
social grounds for making choices regarding nuclear applications.

11
Annex VIII refers.

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ANNEX I: RESEARCH REACTORS

A. General Status

For over 50 years, research reactors (RR) have made valuable contribu-
tions to the development of nuclear power, basic science, materials devel-
opment, radioisotope production for medicine and industry, and education and
training. As of June 2004, the Agency’s Research Reactor Database contains
information on 672 RR, of which 274 are operational in 56 countries (85 in
39 developing countries), 214 are shutdown, 168 have been decommissioned
and 16 are planned or under construction.
It is of concern that many of the shutdown, but not decommissioned,
reactors still have fuel, both fresh and spent, at the sites. An extended delay
between final shutdown and decommissioning will affect both cost and safety at
the time of decommissioning, mainly due to the loss of experienced staff
(already ageing at the time of shutdown) necessary to participate in decommis-
sioning activities.
The distribution of the number of countries with at least one RR peaked
at 60 countries in the mid-eighties, coinciding with the peak at 41 for
developing countries. The number of countries with at least one RR remained
almost constant for industrialized countries from 1965 and for developing
countries from 1985 to the present. Four industrialized countries and three

Total Industrialized Developing

Number of reactors
450

400 400 393

379 374
350 346
324 324 327
314
300 304
283 288
276 276
250 257

220
200 190 190
173
150 155

100
86 89 84 86 86
73 79
50 55
38 41
14 18
0 6
0 0 0
1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

Years

FIG. I.1. Number of research reactors in industrialized and developing countries.

28
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Other Developing
26% Canada
3%
Germany
4%

France
China 5%
5%
United Kingdom
1%

Japan
Other Industrial
7%
9%

Russian Federation
United States of America
21%
19%

FIG. I.2. Operational research reactors in IAEA Member States – 273 reactors.

developing countries that once had operational RR no longer have any.

Figure I.1 indicates that the number of RR in industrialized countries peaked in
1975 and has declined since then. The number in developing countries has
gradually increased, but changed little since the mid-eighties.
Figure I.2 shows the distribution of operating research reactors among
countries. About 70% are in the industrialized countries, with the Russian
Federation and USA having the largest numbers.
Figure I.3 shows the decline in the number of new research reactors being
brought into operation in the past four and a half decades, and the increase in
the number being shutdown. The pattern reflects the nuclear field’s evolution
from a relatively new science into an established technology. It does not mean,

Shut down Commissioned

Number of reactors
350
299
300

250
189
200

150
101
90
100 78 75
52
34 38
50 29
13
4
0
1945-1954

1955-1964

1965-1974

1975-1984

1985-1994

1995-2002

Year

FIG. I.3. Number of research reactors commissioned and shutdown.

29
NTR2004E.book Page 30 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

however, that new research reactors are unnecessary – eight are currently
under construction and eight more are planned. For the most part these are
innovative, multipurpose reactors designed to produce high neutron fluxes.
Many will meet all the nuclear research and development needs envisioned in
the countries in which they are being built, and will offer opportunities for
visiting scientists from abroad. In addition, some will provide radioisotopes
locally and regionally.
Figure I.4 shows the age distribution for operational research reactors. It
peaks around 40 years, with almost 65% of operating reactors being more than
30 years old. While a few of these old reactors give cause for safety concerns,
the majority have been refurbished at least once so that their key components
meet modern safety and technology standards. Figure I.5 shows the power
distribution of operating research reactors. The thermal power distribution of
operating RR indicates that a large fraction of RR, 77%, are less than 5 MW, so
that, even in the worst case accidental scenario, there will not be any significant
consequences off site. Fifty percent of operational RR are less than 100 kW,
consequently they operate with a lifetime core and so no spent fuel problems
will arise until these reactors are shut down permanently. But many of them
operate with highly enriched uranium fuel (HEU), i.e., a 235U concentration ≥
20%. HEU programmes are discussed in more detail in Section D of this
annex, along with other special fuel cycle challenges associated with research
reactors.
Research reactors present special challenges in the back end of the fuel
cycle because many different designs using a large variety of fuel types have
been built, often for special purposes. These include the management of exper-
imental and exotic fuels with no reprocessing route, and significant numbers of

Number of reactors
20

18

16

14

12

10

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Years of operation

FIG. I.4. Age distribution of research reactors in the RRDB: Number of reactors and
years in operation.

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NTR2004E.book Page 31 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

23 MW - 85 MW
6 MW - 20 MW >=100 MW
7%
12% 4%

1.1 MW - 5 MW
12% < 1 kW
26%

200 kW - 1 MW
15%

1 kW - 100 kW
24%

FIG. I.5. Pie chart showing distribution of thermal powers of operating reactors.

fuel assemblies that failed in their reactors or were subsequently corroded in

wet storage. Similarly the variety of designs poses special challenges for decom-
missioning.

B. General Trends

The worldwide demand for nuclear science research, technology devel-

opment, reactor services, and education and training no longer requires the
large number of research reactors currently in operation. Reactors that prosper
are those that have special attributes (e.g., a high neutron flux, a cold source, or
in-core loops to simulate power reactor conditions) or have diversified to take
advantage of commercial opportunities (e.g., radioisotope production or silicon
doping). A much larger number are under-utilized. Older research reactors will
therefore continue to be shut down in increasing numbers, and more of those
that have already shut down will plan and implement decommissioning.
New reactors will be built, but in much smaller numbers than in the past,
and will either be multipurpose reactors or dedicated to specific needs, for
example, the new research reactor planned for Australia is multipurpose. The
high flux multipurpose reactor, FRM II, currently being commissioned in
Germany, will be used largely for research using neutron beams. The two
Maple reactors being commissioned in Canada are based on a research reactor
design but are essentially commercial isotope factories designed to produce
99
Mo by fission.

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NTR2004E.book Page 32 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

Currently, there are eight new research reactors under construction and
plans for about eight more. As is usual in the case of research reactors, they
vary significantly in power, type and purpose. There is one 30 kW Miniature
Neutron Source Reactor (MNSR) that will be used primarily for education and
training, plus some neutron activation analysis (NAA) related to national
interests in assessing pollution, mineral resources and soil fertility. Two or three
facilities will be 1-2 MW multipurpose reactors of the TRIGA type used for a
wide gamut of applications including education and training, some limited
isotope production, neutron radiography and neutron beam-based materials
research. They may also be used for silicon doping and boron neutron capture
therapy.
There are several 10-100 MW compact core reactors with D2O reflectors
either being planned or under construction. Their primary purpose will be to
provide high flux beams for state-of-the-art materials analysis instruments, but
they will also be suitable for most of the other standard applications listed
above, including significant isotope production. Four or five of the new reactors
will be dedicated to single purposes, such as isotope production, testing
materials and components for power reactors or desalination. Finally, one or
two research reactors under consideration would be intended as prototypes for
advanced power reactor designs.
Of the research reactors currently operating, many will continue to
prosper by finding niches to exploit – such as providing test loops simulating
power reactor conditions, neutron activation analysis services, gem colouring,
silicon doping, and isotope production – and by being flexible enough to exploit
other opportunities as they arise. At the same time these facilities provide
important training for the scientists and engineers who are essential for
continued progress in nuclear research and development.
Many of the higher flux, high utilization research reactors have recently
been significantly upgraded, usually to improve the neutron flux, particularly
for beam research. In this context, the modifications have involved making the
reactor core more compact, increasing the power, and changing reflectors, as
well as upgrading or adding cold sources. Whenever beam fluxes are increased,
there is naturally a tendency to also add new instruments such as Ultra-Small
Angle Neutron Scattering instruments or Spin-Echo spectrometers. Other
major modifications have been undertaken recently to enable or enhance
boron neutron capture therapy. The pioneering facilities generally add fission
converters to obtain a higher epithermal flux, while others modify thermal
columns or beam tubes to enable them to perform capture therapy studies,
either for research or treatment.

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C. Utilization

The climate for research reactors has changed in recent years. The
original mission of some facilities has been accomplished or become obsolete.
In other cases, applications can now be done better or more cheaply using
newer technology. Tight budgets and changing priorities have caused some
governments to cut back baseline support. The stagnation or decline of nuclear
power in many industrialized countries has reduced the demand for nuclear
education and training, and simulators have taken over some of the training of
nuclear power plant operators previously provided by research reactors.

TABLE I.1. FREQUENCY OF APPLICATIONS OF RESEARCH

REACTORS

Number of reactors declaring

Application
involvement

Neutron activation analysis 71

Teaching 68
Training 63
Materials or fuel tests 53
Isotope production 48
Neutron scattering research 34
Neutron radiography 32
Transmutation (Si or gems) 21
Geochronology 14
Neutron capture therapy 9
Other uses 47

Table I.1 provides a good indication of the relative frequency of each

major application among research reactors. The table’s final category, ‘other
uses’, includes topics ranging from public tours to reactor physics studies,
instrument calibration, positron sources, electrical power production and
neutron depth profiling.

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D. Nuclear Fuel Cycle

D.1. General Overview

D.1.1. Inventories

The Agency has circulated questionnaires for its Research Reactor Spent
Fuel Database (RRSFDB), and responses indicate that there are 62 027 spent
fuel assemblies in storage and another 24 338 assemblies in the standard cores.
Of the 62 027 in storage, 45 108 are in industrialized countries and 16 919 are in
developing countries; 21 732 are HEU and 40 295 are LEU (low enriched
uranium). The majority use standard types of fuel plus aluminium cladding,
although some TRIGA fuel elements have stainless steel cladding. The
remaining non-standard fuel types in 59 facilities pose special problems both
for their continued safe storage and for their eventual final disposition.
Figure I.6 compares the numbers of US-origin and Russian-origin HEU and
LEU spent fuel assemblies at foreign research reactors that might be involved
in take-back programmes. Currently 12 850 spent fuel assemblies of US-origin,
and 21 732 of Russian-origin, are located at foreign research reactors.

D.1.2. Storage Conditions

Wet storage is the most popular storage technology for storing research
reactor spent fuel. However, successful storage of aluminium-clad fuel depends
on very strict water quality control. Although aluminium clad research reactor
fuel has been successfully stored in water for over 40 years without significant
signs of corrosion, penetration of the fuel cladding by pitting corrosion has

FOREIGN FUEL BY ORIGIN AND ENRICHMENT

30000
LEU
ASSEMBLIES
NUMBER OF

25000
HEU
20000 16641
16263
15000 11476
10000 7428
5000 8306 8458 10544
5779
0
USA 2000 USA 2006 RUSSIA 2000 RUSSIA 2006

ORIGIN OF ENRICHMENT

FIG. I.6. Present and projected US and Russian origin spent fuel at foreign research
reactors potentially involved in take-back programmes.

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occurred in as little as 45 days in cases where water quality has been allowed to
deteriorate. Aluminium racks, tanks and pool liners used in storing aluminium
clad fuel are equally vulnerable to corrosion and thus limit the life time of spent
fuel storage facilities.
Research reactor fuel has also been successfully stored dry in vaults,
concrete canisters and hot cells over long periods. Where problems have arisen,
they have invariably been due to a long-term undetected ingress of water or
moisture.

D.2. Reduced enrichment for research and test reactors (RERTR) and
Fuel Return Programmes

D.2.1. RERTR

Section A noted that many research reactors operate on HEU fuel. To

reduce and eventually eliminate commerce in HEU for research reactors, the
United States set up the reduced enrichment for research and test reactors
(RERTR) programme in 1978. A similar programme was initiated in the
former Soviet Union, and these programmes have essentially merged with the
Russian Federation becoming a full partner in RERTR. Thirty-one reactors to
date have been fully converted to low enriched uranium (LEU has a 235U
concentration < 20%), and a further seven are in the process of converting with
mixed HEU/LEU cores.
A major component of RERTR is the development and qualification of
new, high-density, LEU fuels based on uranium molybdenum alloys. This effort
has two goals: first, enabling further conversions of reactors from HEU to LEU
and, second, developing a substitute for LEU silicide fuel that can be more
easily disposed of after expiration of the United States Foreign Research
Reactor (FRR) Spent Nuclear Fuel Acceptance (SNF) Program in May 2006
(see Section D.2.2).
The original schedule was to qualify LEU dispersion fuels based on U-
Mo alloys with uranium densities of up to 6 g/cm3 by the end of 2003, and those
based on alloys with uranium densities of 8-9 g/cm3 by the end of 2005.
However, technical difficulties have been encountered that will delay qualifi-
cation. These occurred during irradiation tests and were observed in the form
of pillowing caused by excessive porosity in the (U-Mo)Alx interaction product
between U-Mo particles and the Al matrix under elevated operating conditions
(i.e. a high temperature and fission rate). Planned irradiations to qualify full
size fuel elements have therefore been postponed until a solution to this
problem is developed, which will likely delay qualification until at least the end
of 2010.

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Promising results are being obtained in the effort to develop a fabrication

process for monolithic LEU U-Mo fuel. Most existing and foreseen RR could
be converted with this fuel, which has a maximum uranium density of between
15.4 and 16.4 g/cm3. The most promising method produces the fuel meat by cold
rolling a small ingot produced by casting. The aluminium clad and the fuel meat
are then bonded by friction stir welding and the cladding surface is finished by
a light cold-roll. This method has been demonstrated for mini-plates and
appears to be possible for full size Materials Testing Reactor (MTR) plates,
with the possible inclusion of intermediate anneals.

D.2.2. Fuel Return Programmes

The US Foreign Research Reactor (FRR) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF)

Acceptance Program has made significant progress since its inception in
May 1996. Under the programme, 4576 MTR elements have been received at
the Savannah River Site and 961 TRIGA elements have been received at the
Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. These and
projected future shipments are expected to greatly reduce the inventories of
spent fuel at research reactors worldwide, thereby resolving operational
problems at many reactor sites and reducing proliferation concerns.
The tripartite US-IAEA-RF Initiative on Russian Research Reactor Fuel
Return to examine the feasibility of implementing a programme to return
Russian origin research reactor fuel to the Russian Federation for management
and disposition made steady progress during 2002. Agreements are in place
and preparations are ongoing for the first shipment to take place from
Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
Also under the auspices of the tripartite Initiative, an international
operation involving Romania, the Russian Federation, USA and the Agency
removed 14 kg of 80% enriched, and 36% enriched uranium from the Pitesti
Institute of Nuclear Science in September 2003. The fresh fuel, originally
obtained for the now shutdown WWR-S reactor at the ‘Horia Hulubei’
National Institute for Physics and Engineering in Magurele near Bucharest,
was flown to Novosibirsk, Russia, where it is to be re-fabricated into LEU fuels.
The Agency assisted Bulgarian authorities with the removal of HEU stored at
the small (2 MW) IRT research reactor in Sofia. The HEU, 36% enriched and
in the form of fresh fuel, was airlifted in December 2003 from Bulgaria to the
Russian Federation, which agreed to take back the fuel which it had originally
supplied.
Also within the framework of the tripartite US-IAEA-RF Initiative on
Russian Research Reactor Fuel Return, the Agency assisted the Libyan
authorities with the repatriation of 15 kg of 80%-enriched fresh HEU in

36
NTR2004E.book Page 37 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

March 2004. The fresh HEU fuel was shipped to the Russian Federation, which
agreed to its return.

E. Decommissioning

A breakdown of the statistical data used for Figure I.3 into shutdown and
not yet decommissioned (‘shutdown (NYD)’) and decommissioned research
reactors for individual regions and Member States yields a more precise picture
of the importance of decommissioning issues. At present, close to 60% of the
‘shutdown (NYD)’ research reactors are located in North America with a
further 12% in the Russian Federation. About 10% of ‘shutdown (NYD)’
research reactors are in developing Member States and distributed as follows:
Asia-Pacific - 10; Eastern Europe - 8; Latin America - 4; and Africa and Middle
East - 3.
However, as discussed in Section A, many of the operating research
reactors in these regions are over 30 years old and a significant number will join
the shutdown list in the next few years.
With respect to operational research reactors to be shut down and
decommissioned in the future, a meaningful breakdown of the numbers is
difficult, because future plans remain open for many countries.

37
NTR2004E.book Page 38 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

ANNEX II: THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER PICTURE

Worldwide there were 439 nuclear power plants (NPPs) operating as of

31 December 2003. Nuclear power supplied 16% of global electricity
generation in 2002, down slightly from 16.2% in 2001.12 Table II.1 summarizes
world nuclear experience as of 31 December 2003.
The global energy availability factor for NPPs rose to approximately 84%
in 2003, continuing its steady climb from 74.2% in 1991. Two new NPPs were
connected to the grid in 2003. This follows six new connections in 2002 and
three in 2001, specifically

2003: Qinshan 3-2 in China

Ulchin-5 in the Republic of Korea
2002: Ling Ao-1, Ling Ao-2, Qinshan 2-1, Qinshan 3-1 in China
Temelin-2 in the Czech Republic
Yonggwang-6 in the Republic of Korea
2001: Onagawa-3 in Japan
Yonggwang-5 in the Republic of Korea
Rostov-1 in the Russian Federation

There were six retirements in 2003, the four 50 MW(e) units at Calder
Hall in the UK, the 640 MW(e) unit at Stade in Germany and the Fugen ATR
148 MW(e) unit in Japan. There had been four retirements in 2002 (Kozloduy-
1 and -2 in Bulgaria and Bradwell units A and B in the UK) and no retirements
in 2001.
In 2003, construction started on just one new NPP, a 202 MW(e) PHWR
in India.
Current expansion, as well as near-term and long-term growth prospects,
are centred in Asia. As shown in Table II.1, of 31 reactors under construction13
worldwide at the end of 2003, 18 are located either in China, the Republic of
Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Japan or India. Twenty-one
of the last 30 reactors to have been connected to the grid are in the Far East and
South Asia.

12
International Atomic Energy Agency, Power Reactor Information System
(PRIS) Database, (http://www.iaea.org/programmes/a2/); and International Atomic
Energy Agency, Reference Data Series No. 1, Vienna, July 2003.
13
The totals include also Taiwan, China.

38
NTR2004E.book Page 39 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

TABLE II.1. NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN OPERATION AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN THE WORLD
(AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2003)
Nuclear Total Operating
Reactors Reactors
Electricity Supplied Experience to
in Operation under Construction
COUNTRY in 2003 Dec. 2003
No of Total No of Total % of
TW·h Years Months
Units MW(e) Units MW(e) Total
ARGENTINA 2 935 1 692 7.03 8.59 50 7
ARMENIA 1 376 1.82 35.48 36 3
BELGIUM 7 5 760 44.61 55.46 191 7
BRAZIL 2 1 901 13.34 3.65 25 3
BULGARIA 4 2 722 16.04 37.71 129 2
CANADA 16 11 323 70.29 12.53 486 11
CHINA 8 5 977 3 2 610 41.59 2.18 39 1
CZECH REPUBLIC 6 3 548 25.87 31.09 74 10
FINLAND 4 2 656 21.82 27.32 99 4
FRANCE 59 63 363 420.70 77.68 1 346 2
GERMANY 18 20 643 157.44 28.10 648 0
HUNGARY 4 1 755 11.01 32.69 74 2
INDIA 14 2 550 8 3 622 16.37 3.30 223 5
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF 2 2 111 0 0
JAPAN 53 44 139 3 3 696 230.80 25.01 1 123 7
KOREA, DEM. PEOPLE’S REP. OF 1 1 040 0 0
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF 19 15 850 1 960 123.28 40.01 220 8
LITHUANIA 2 2 370 14.30 79.89 36 6
MEXICO 2 1 310 10.51 5.23 23 11

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TABLE II.1. NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN OPERATION AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN THE WORLD

40
(AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2003) (CONT.)
Nuclear Total Operating
Reactors Reactors
Electricity Supplied Experience to
in Operation under Construction
COUNTRY in 2003 Dec. 2003
No of Total No of Total % of
TW·h Years Months
Units MW(e) Units MW(e) Total
NETHERLANDS 1 449 3.80 4.48 59 0
PAKISTAN 2 425 1.81 2.37 35 10
ROMANIA 1 655 1 655 4.54 9.33 7 6
RUSSIAN FEDERATION 30 20 793 3 2 825 138.39 16.54 761 4
SLOVAKIA 6 2 442 2 776 17.86 57.35 100 6
SLOVENIA 1 656 4.96 40.45 22 3
SOUTH AFRICA 2 1 800 12.66 6.05 38 3
SPAIN 9 7 584 59.36 23.64 219 2
SWEDEN 11 9 451 65.50 49.62 311 1
SWITZERLAND 5 3 220 25.93 39.73 143 10
UKRAINE 13 11 207 4 3 800 76.70 45.93 279 10
UNITED KINGDOM 27 12 052 85.31 23.70 1 329 8
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 104 98 298 763.74 19.86 2 871 8
Total 439 361 094 31 25 387 2524.03 11 143 5

Note: The total includes the following data in Taiwan, China:

— 6 units, 4884 MW(e) in operation; 2 units, 2600 MW(e) under construction;
— 37.37 TW·h of nuclear electricity generation, representing 21.5% of the total electricity generated in 2003;
— 134 years and one month of total operating experience.
NTR2004E.book Page 41 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

Within Asia,14 capacity and production are greatest in Japan (53 NPPs in
operation and three under construction) and the Republic of Korea (19 NPPs
in operation and one under construction). Both countries lack indigenous
energy resources, and consequent concerns about supply diversity and security
make new NPPs more economically competitive. In Japan, seven of the
17 reactors shut down in 2002 following revelations by the Tokyo Electric
Power Company of past falsifications in self-imposed reactor inspection reports
had been returned to service by the end of 2003. In China eight NPPs are in
operation, and three more are under construction. India has 14 NPPs in
operation, and eight under construction.
In Western Europe, with the retirement of four units in the UK and one in
Germany, there are now 141 operating reactors. The last new connection to the
grid was France’s Civaux-2 in 1999. With upratings and licence extensions,
overall capacity is likely to remain near existing levels, despite decisions to
phase out nuclear power in Belgium (which passed its phase-out law in
January 2003), Germany and Sweden. In contrast, voters in Switzerland
rejected two referenda in 2003 proposing, in one case, an extended moratorium
on new NPPs and, in the other, a nuclear phase-out. The UK Government
decided it would not yet support the replacement of retiring nuclear plants with
new nuclear capacity, preferring to promote renewables and turn to nuclear
only if these prove insufficient. The most advanced planning for new nuclear
capacity is in Finland where, in 2002, a ‘decision in principle’ to build a fifth
NPP was made by the Government and Parliament. In 2003 the utility
Teollisuuden Voima Oy selected Olkiluoto as the site and signed a contract
with a Framatome ANP – Siemens consortium for a 1600 MW(e) European
pressurized water reactor. The construction licence application for the reactor
was submitted to the Finnish Government in January 2003.
Eastern Europe and the newly independent countries of the former
Soviet Union have 68 operating NPPs and ten more under construction. In the
Russian Federation, which has 30 NPPs in operation and three under
construction, ROSENERGOATOM continued its programme to extend
licences at eleven NPPs. In 2003 the Russian nuclear regulatory body,
Gosatomnadzor, issued a five-year extension for Kola-1.
In Bulgaria a review by the World Association of Nuclear Operators
concluded that Kozloduy-3 and -4 meet all necessary international standards to
continue operating safely. Bulgaria has asked the EU to reconsider an earlier
agreement under which Bulgaria would close Kozloduy-3 and -4 before the end
of 2006 as a condition for joining the EU. In the meantime, Bulgarian

14
Taiwan, China has six NPPs, with two more under construction.

41
NTR2004E.book Page 42 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

regulators issued a new ten-year licence for Kozloduy 4 (through March 2013),
the first long-term licence issued by Bulgaria, and later issued a similar eight-
year extension for Kozloduy-3. In Romania, where licence extensions are
required every two years, an extension was approved for Cernavoda to 2005.
No new NPP has been ordered in the United States of America since
1978, although seven units that were out of service for extended periods have
been restarted since 1998. The focus in 2003 continued to be on licence renewal
and upratings. In 2003, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
approved nine licence extensions of 20 years each (for a total licensed life of
60 years for each NPP), bringing the total number of approved licence
extensions to nineteen by the end of the year. The NRC had 17 applications
currently under review and expected at least eleven more in 2004, and eleven in
2005 and 2006. Also in 2003, the NRC approved eight upratings totaling 401
MW(th). As one step in implementing the ‘Nuclear Power 2010’ programme it
announced in 2002, the US Government streamlined the regulatory process by
introducing early site permits that can be reserved for future use. In the course
of 2003 three companies, Exelon, Dominion Energy and Entergy Nuclear filed
applications for such permits.
In Canada, near-term expansion of nuclear generation is taking the form
of restarting some or all of the eight nuclear units (out of a Canadian total of
22) that have been shut in recent years. The first two such restarts, Pickering
A-4 and Bruce A-4, took place in 2003. Meanwhile, licences for the four
Pickering A units (three of which are still shut down) were extended to 2005,
for the four Pickering B units (all operating) until 2008, and for the four
Darlington units (all operating) until 2008.
In Africa, there are two operating NPPs, both in South Africa. In
Latin America, there are six – two each in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. In
South Africa a further step forward was taken on the Pebble Bed Modular
Reactor (PBMR) in 2003, with the issuance of a positive ‘Record of Decision’
on the environmental impact assessment study for the PBMR demonstration
unit.

42
NTR2004E.book Page 43 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

ANNEX III: 50 YEARS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY15

“The energy produced by breaking down the atom is a very poor kind of
thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformations of
these atoms is talking moonshine.” Lord Ernest Rutherford, 1933.
“It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes
[nuclear generated] electrical energy too cheap to meter.” Lewis Strauss,
Chairman, US Atomic Energy Commission, 1954.
In 2004, half a century after electricity produced by nuclear power was
first delivered to an electrical grid at Obninsk in today’s Russian Federation,
we know the truth lies somewhere between the extremes.
Nuclear fission was discovered in 1939, and the world’s first chain
reaction was achieved by the Manhattan Project on 2 December 1942 at the
University of Chicago. The Chicago nuclear pile consisted of uranium
embedded in bricklike blocks of graphite to serve as the moderator. However,
it was not until after the war, on 20 December 1951, that electricity was first
generated from nuclear power. The source was EBR-I (Experimental Breeder
Reactor-I), a fast breeder reactor at the National Reactor Testing Station in
Idaho, USA. EBR-I initially produced about 100 kW(e), enough to power the
equipment in the small reactor building.

A. International Developments

In the 1950s nuclear power research and development focused mainly on

technologies for civilian electricity generation and naval propulsion, particu-
larly submarines. The emphasis in the USA was on light water reactor (LWR)
designs fueled with enriched uranium, both the pressurized water reactor
(PWR) associated principally with Westinghouse and the boiling water reactor
(BWR) associated with General Electric (GE). Development in the USSR
covered both graphite moderated, light water cooled, enriched uranium
designs and WWER designs (water cooled water moderated power reactor)
similar to PWRs. British and French efforts focused on natural uranium fueled,

15
This summary borrows heavily, frequently verbatim, from David Fischer’s
History of the International Atomic Energy Agency: the first forty years, IAEA, Vienna,
Austria, 1997.

43
NTR2004E.book Page 44 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

graphite moderated, gas cooled reactors (GCR).16 Canada focused on natural

uranium fueled, heavy water moderated designs.
Initial success, both for civilian power generation and submarine
propulsion, came in 1954. On 9 May 1954 the 5 MW(e) graphite moderated,
light water cooled, enriched uranium reactor at Obninsk, USSR reached criti-
cality, and at 5:30 pm on 26 June 1954 it was connected to the Mosenergo grid.
In December 1954, the first nuclear submarine, the Nautilus in the USA, began
operation under nuclear power.
In 1956 Calder Hall-1, a 50 MW(e) GCR, came on line in the UK (and
operated until March 2003). Shippingport in the USA was next, a 60 MW(e)
PWR connected to the grid in 1957, followed in 1959 by G-2 (Marcoule) a
38 MW(e) GCR in France. Also in 1959, the world’s first non-military nuclear
powered ship, the icebreaker Lenin, was launched in the USSR. Figure III.1
presents a timeline showing these dates, the dates when nuclear power first
came on line in other countries around the world, and, in the middle of the bar,
the dates when total installed nuclear capacity worldwide reached 100 GW(e),
200 GW(e), and 300 GW(e). At the end of 2003, it stood at 361 GW(e).
An important contributor to the initial spread of nuclear power was a new
post-war international openness and exchange, triggered most substantially by
a United Nations conference in 1955 that came to be known as ‘The First
Geneva Conference’. It proved to be the world’s largest gathering of scientists
and engineers up to that time, and both confirmed for a broad audience that
numerous uses of nuclear energy were now feasible, and lifted the blanket of
secrecy that had covered nuclear research during the war.
European co-operation was also spurred by the Suez crisis in the Fall of
1956. At the height of the crisis, foreign ministers of the European Coal and
Steel Community countries – France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy
and the three Benelux countries – decided to appoint ‘three wise men’ to set
targets for nuclear electricity. The target was 15 GW(e) of installed nuclear
power by 1967, and in March 1957 the Rome treaties establishing both
EURATOM and the European Economic Community were signed.

B. The ‘Turnkey’ Plants

By the early 1960s, demonstration power reactors were in operation in

all leading industrial countries, and expectations were high. In December 1963,

16
World Nuclear Association (http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf54.htm).

44
NTR2004E.book Page 45 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

Chicago pile

1950
EBR-1
Nautilus Obninsk (USSR)

Calder Hall (UK)

Shippingport (USA)
G2 (France)
Lenin 1960
Vak Kahl (Germany)
BR-3 (Belgium) NPD (Canada)
JPDR (Japan) Latina (Italy)
Agesta(Sweden)

Dodewaard(NL) Jose Cabrera-1 (Spain)

Beznau-1 (Switzerland) Tarapur(India)
1970
Kanupp(Pakistan)
Bohunice(Czechoslovakia)
Kozloduy(Bulgaria) Atucha-1 (Argentina)

Kori-1 (ROK) 100 GW

Loviisa-1 (Finland)
3 Mile Island accident
1980
Angra-1 (Brazil) Krsko(Yugoslavia)
Paks-1 (Hungary)
200 GW Koeberg(S. Africa)
Chernobyl accident
300 GW
Laguna Verde-1 (Mexico)
1990

Guangdong-1 (China)

Cernavoda-1 (Romania)

2000

360 GW

FIG. III.1. Timeline of first industrial scale NPPs around the world. The white numbers
in the middle of the bar show when total installed nuclear capacity worldwide first passed
100 GW(e), 200 GW(e) and 300 GW(e).17

17
Taiwan, China commissioned Chin Shan-1 in 1977.

45
NTR2004E.book Page 46 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

the idea of ‘turnkey’ plants was introduced in the USA, with a bid for the
construction of a plant at Oyster Creek, New Jersey, at a guaranteed fixed price
that was clearly competitive with coal and oil fired alternatives. By 1967, US
utilities alone had ordered more than 50 power reactors, with an aggregate
capacity larger than that of all orders in the USA for coal and oil fired plants,
and from 1967-1974 they placed an additional 196 orders. The US Atomic
Energy Commission foresaw 1000 nuclear plants on line in the USA by the
year 2000.18 Globally the nuclear industry started to surge up the early slope of
the S-shaped curve of global installed nuclear capacity shown in the left panel
of Figure III.2.
The turnkey plants in the USA successfully attracted utilities to nuclear
power and gained their manufacturers a strong domestic foundation from
which they then expanded internationally. But every turnkey plant lost its
manufacturer money.19 The losses were due only partly to aggressively
competitive low bidding. They also reflected a rapidly changing licensing
environment that increased costs. In this sense the timing of the turnkey plants
could hardly have been worse.

C. Environmentalism, Slower Growth and Bad Management

Oyster Creek was completed in 1969, and subsequent turnkey plants

stretched into the 1970s. Increasing challenges by a growing number of mainly
environmentalist nuclear opponents began to stretch out licensing times and
sometimes necessitate design changes, thereby delaying cost recovery,
increasing costs, and complicating financing. The first Earth Day in the USA
took place in 1970, and the National Environmental Policy Act was passed in
1969. It created new requirements (notably an ‘environmental impact
statement’) and new institutions (the Environmental Protection Agency and
Council on Environmental Quality). All the trends of the time in the USA
conspired to increase the numbers, opportunities, and credibility of nuclear
opponents.
The environment was changing in Europe as well. The 1970s saw a surge
in environmentalism, resulting in new environmental legislation, environ-
mental ministries and, in several countries, the founding of formal Green
political parties, all anti-nuclear.

18
Cohn (1997) p. 127
19
Simpson (1995) pp. 192-194

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NTR2004E.book Page 47 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

In the USSR the main environmental challenge to nuclear expansion

would come later, after the 1986 Chernobyl accident. Throughout the 1970s
and early 1980s expectations still remained high, with a target of 100 GW(e) to
be installed by 1993.
Even in the West, the changed licensing environment took a while to
affect the flow of new orders. At the beginning of the 1970s orders rose steadily.
But by 1975, the curve of orders had already passed its peak. From 1974 to 1975
orders dropped abruptly from 75 GW(e) to 28 GW(e). Moreover, all
41 reactors ordered after 1973 were subsequently cancelled, and, indeed, more
than two-thirds of all nuclear plants ordered after January 1970 were eventually
cancelled.20 The IAEA’s Annual Report for 1975 called the decline temporary,
attributing it to economic recession, rising capital and fuel costs and environ-
mental concerns. The combination of inflation and rising energy costs, in
particular, both depressed growth in electricity demand (and thus utility
revenues) at the same time that they increased utility costs. A more lasting, but
less immediately apparent effect, was the slow and continuing decoupling of
economic growth from energy and electricity growth. As the ratio of electricity
consumption to GDP decreased, growth forecasts and orders that had assumed
the ratio would never change became untenable.
Towards the end of the 1970s the shrinking flow of nuclear power orders
in the USA dried up completely, and it has not revived. The most obvious cause
was the Three Mile Island accident on 28 March 1979, the first major accident
at a civilian nuclear power station. The psychological effect on the population
400 400
Developing countries
350 350

300 Jap/ROK 300

250 FSU/EE 250

GW(e)

GW(e)

200 200

150 WE 150

100 100

50 NA 50

0 0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

FIG. III.2. The left panel shows growth in global installed nuclear capacity in GW(e). The
right panel shows the capacity under construction worldwide, also in GW(e). FSU:
Former Soviet Union; EE: Eastern Europe; NA: North America; Jap: Japan; ROK:
Republic of Korea; WE: Western Europe.

20
Cohn (1997) p. 127

47
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in the neighbourhood, and eventually throughout the Western world, was

immense. So was the damage to the plant itself and to the reputation of the
nuclear power industry. In 1979, the total capacity of nuclear power plants on
order worldwide actually decreased by about 8000 MW(e); eight new plants
were ordered but 14 previous orders were cancelled, and in subsequent years,
US utilities continued to cancel orders they had already placed.
Not all of nuclear’s diminishing popularity in the 1970s and 1980s could
be laid at the feet of external forces. A big contributor to high costs was the
inability in many cases of utilities, equipment suppliers, contractors and
regulators to rise to the management challenges of the new technology.
The downturn in orders in the 1970s slowed the build-up of global nuclear
capacity and eventually led to a flattening after 1985 of the capacity curve
shown in the left panel of Figure III.2. As growth slowed, calculations about the
long term evolution of nuclear energy and the relative near term economic
attractiveness of particularly breeder reactors and the closed fuel cycle began
to change. The initial rapid expansion of nuclear capacity – at an average rate
of 30% annually in the first half of the 1970s – and a very conservative under-
standing of the long-term availability of uranium resources, had made breeders
and reprocessing appear almost essential. The argument for breeders and
reprocessing was especially strong in countries with limited uranium resources,
such as France, Japan, the UK and India.
Breeders were hardly exotic. The first nuclear electricity had been
produced by a fast breeder reactor EBR-I in 1951, and in 1959 the Russian BR-
5 fast neutron reactor reached its design capacity of 5 MW(e) at Obninsk. The
UK completed the 14 MW(e) Dounreay fast breeder reactor in 1962, and in
1963 the USA completed the 61 MW(e) Fermi fast breeder reactor. In 1973
France connected the 250 MW(e) Phénix to the grid and the USSR did the
same for the 350 MW(e) BN-350, at Shevchenko (now Aktau in Kazakhstan).
BN-350 went on to provide both electricity and desalinated water for Aktau
city and neighbouring industries for 26 years before being shut down only in
1999. In 1975 the UK completed the 250 MW(e) Dounreay prototype fast
reactor. In 1980 the commercial sized BN-600 (600 MW(e)) was connected to
the grid in the USSR, and in 1986 the Superphénix at Creys-Malville, rated at
1242 MW(e), was connected to the French grid. India’s 13 MW(e) fast breeder
test reactor went critical in 1985, and, finally, in 1994 Japan commissioned the
280 MW(e) Monju fast breeder reactor, although a sodium leak in December
of the following year has kept it out of operation ever since.
Economic incentives for breeders and reprocessing have diminished with
the slow down in capacity growth since the 1970s. But they have also
diminished because estimates of uranium resources have continually risen – a
rise both driven by, and reflected in, the evolution of uranium prices shown in

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Figure III.3. Rapid capacity growth in the early 1970s pushed up prices, which
in turned encouraged exploration. Greater exploration increased resource
estimates, which, along with the slowdown in growth, gradually depressed
prices.
The changed economic incentives for closing the fuel cycle have limited
the introduction of breeder reactors to the units listed above and to continuing
research and development programmes in France, Japan, Russia, India, the
Republic of Korea and China. They have also limited the need for fuel reproc-
essing. France has two large facilities at La Hague, and the UK and Russian
Federation each have one. Smaller facilities operate in India (three) and
Japan (one).
About one third of the spent fuel discharged from power reactors is
reprocessed; the rest is in interim storage. By the end of 2000, reprocessing had
separated 200 tonnes of plutonium from civilian spent fuel – about 20% of the
total amount of plutonium discharged from civilian reactors. Some of the
recovered plutonium and uranium has been mixed with fresh uranium to create
MOX fuel for LWRs.
Out of the diversity of initial designs, LWRs have gradually come to
dominate the market. In the late 1960s the French authorities abandoned the
gas graphite cycle and turned to LWRs. In the late 1980s, the UK followed suit

120

100

80
$/lb U3O8

60

40

20

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

then current $ constant 2003 $

FIG. III.3. Uranium Prices, 1967-2003.

49
NTR2004E.book Page 50 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

with its first order for an LWR. In the meantime the UK had built a number of
advanced gas cooled reactors and had experimented with other designs. As
noted above the USSR built two types of power reactors, both using enriched
uranium fuel. These were LWRs in its WWER series and the graphite
moderated, pressurized water cooled RBMK (reactor bolshoi moshchnosty
kanalny – high power channel reactor). The first industrial scale WWER
reactor, Novovoronezh-1, came on-line in 1964, as did the first industrial scale
water cooled, graphite moderated reactor, Beloyarsky-1. The USSR also
exported WWER light water power reactors.

D. The 1990s

As shown in Figure III.2, trends since 1990 are characterized by slow but
continuing capacity growth, new construction dropping to zero in
North America and Western Europe, and modest continuing construction
elsewhere. Growth in nuclear electricity generation has been somewhat greater
than Figure III.2’s growth in nuclear capacity, as management efficiencies in the
1990s have steadily increased the average availability factors of the world’s
nuclear plants (see Figure III.4).
In the left panel of Figure III.2, the capacity curves for North America,
Western Europe and Russia and Eastern Europe are essentially flat. Two
85

80
percent

75

70

65
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
FIG. III.4. Increases in the average energy availability factor of nuclear power plants
worldwide since 1990.

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NTR2004E.book Page 51 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

reasons are the 1986 Chernobyl accident and electricity market deregulation in
many countries. Ironically, both these reasons, plus consolidation in the nuclear
industry, also help explain the rising availability factors shown in Figure III.4.
As noted above, there had already been a decade of significant opposition
to nuclear power in Europe. Austria in 1978 had rejected nuclear power in a
general referendum, opposition had stopped Ireland’s attempt at nuclear
development in the late 1970s, and in 1980 Swedish voters approved a
referendum to phase out the country’s twelve (now eleven) operating nuclear
power plants. But Chernobyl broadened the opposition to nuclear power. Italy,
for example, voted in 1987 to shut down all four of its NPPs. Russia’s nuclear
expansion was also stalled.
Another factor was electricity market deregulation in particularly OECD
countries. In the USA deregulation began in 1978 with the requirement that
utilities buy electricity from qualified independent producers, but open access
to transmission networks, competition at the wholesale level, and competition
at the retail level were only introduced in the 1990s. Today about half of US
states have full competition at the retail level. In Europe, deregulation began in
the early 1990s with the Scandinavian countries first liberalizing and then
privatizing the energy industry. In the UK the full process took a decade,
beginning with the UK Electricity Act in 1989 and reaching full deregulation in
1999. The European Union directive to establish common rules for an internal
electricity market was adopted in 1996, with an implementation deadline of
February 1999. Proposed next steps would open the electricity market for all
non-household customers by July 2004, and for all customers by July 2007. In
Japan, initial steps were taken in 1995 with an amendment to the electric
utilities law to allow independent power producers (IPPs) into the wholesale
market.
Deregulation ‘exposed’ excess capacity that had accumulated in
regulated markets, pushed electricity prices (and thus utility revenues) lower
and made power plant investments more risky. No longer could regulators
guarantee rates that would assure cost recovery and profitability. Excess
capacity reduced demand for new capacity – of any sort – and the emphasis on
rapid reliable returns made nuclear power’s ‘front-loaded’ cost structure, with
high initial capital costs and low operating costs, an important disadvantage.
Because nuclear plants are offered in large units (to benefit from economies of
scale), have longer construction times than alternatives, and have organized
opposition to regulatory approval, they present more of an investment risk
than particularly new natural gas fired capacity. These differences, coupled with
low gas prices through most of the 1990s and natural gas’ image as a clean
burning fuel, steered new investments away from nuclear and most often in the
direction of natural gas.

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But the 1990s were also characterized by the rising availability factors in
Figure III.4. The Chernobyl accident was one motivation. It fostered
information exchange, comparison, emulation of best practice and communi-
cation among operators and regulators facilitated by IAEA, OECD/NEA,
World Association of Nuclear Operators and others. The comprehensive
exchange of information on operational safety experience in particular has
become a major factor in nuclear safety improvements worldwide, and a safer
power plant is generally a more available, and more profitable, power plant. At
the same time deregulating markets meant that increased availability
translated increasingly directly into increased profits. Selected companies
moved to define themselves largely by the size and expertise of their nuclear
operations, leading to consolidation in the industry and more nuclear plants
being operated by those who did it best.
The final characteristic of the 1990s is the shift towards Asia and
developing countries. As discussed in Annex II, current expansion is centred in
Asia. One reason is that new nuclear power plants are most attractive where
energy demand growth is rapid, alternative resources are scarce, energy supply
security is a priority or nuclear power is important for reducing air pollution
and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One or more of these features charac-
terize China, India, Japan and the Republic of Korea, where most current
construction is taking place.
Of the developing countries, India has the longest history while China has
the greatest nuclear capacity. Because India has poor uranium resources but
substantial thorium, its strategy since the beginning (an Atomic Energy
Commission was established as early as 1948) has been aimed at the eventual
use of thorium. The sequence was to start with natural uranium reactors to
produce electricity and plutonium, use the plutonium in fast breeders to breed
more plutonium and uranium-233 from thorium, and then use uranium-233 to
sustain breeders converting thorium to uranium-233.
Nonetheless, India’s first two nuclear units to be connected to the grid, at
Tarapur in 1969, were GE BWRs, offered as turnkey plants. But all twelve units
since have been PHWRs, as are six of eight units under construction. The other
two are WWERs.
China is the most recent developing country to adopt nuclear power, with
its first industrial sized nuclear power plant at Guangdong-1 being connected to
the grid in 1993. Since then it has built an additional six units with four more
under construction. As noted in the main body of this report, the future of
nuclear power may be largely determined by its future in countries like India
and China – countries with large populations, large prospective increases in
GDP and energy demand, established and expanding nuclear expertise, but a
still only minor share of nuclear power in the electricity supply.

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REFERENCES

[1] Steven Mark Cohn, Too Cheap to Meter: An Economic and Philosophical
Analysis of the Nuclear Dream, State University of New York Press, Albany, NY,
1997.
[2] David Fischer, History of the International Atomic Energy Agency: the first forty
years, IAEA, Vienna, Austria, 1997.
[3] David Hart, Nuclear Power in India: A Comparative Analysis, George Allan &
Unwin, London, 1983.
[4] Harry Henderson, Nuclear Power, ABC-CLIO, Inc., 2000.
[5] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Department of Nuclear Energy,
Division of Nuclear Power, “Time-line of Nuclear Power in The World”, unpub-
lished, 2002.
[6] Paul R. Josephson, Red Atom, W.H. Freeman and Company, New York, 2000.
[7] Colin Keay, “A perspective on Nuclear Energy,” referenced in http://www.world-
nuclear.org/opinion/razorfeb02.htm, World Nuclear Association, London,
February 2002.
[8] Rick Michal (2000), “Richard Rhodes on nuclear technology,” Nuclear News, July
2000.
[9] Rick Michal (2001), “Fifty years ago in December: Atomic reactor EBR-I
produced first electricity,” Nuclear News, November 2001.
[10] Judith Perera, Nuclear Power in the Former Soviet Union, Volume 2: Nuclear Fuel
Cycle Facilities, The McCloskey Group Ltd, Petersfield, Hampshire, UK, 2002.
[11] Richard Rhodes, Nuclear Renewal, Viking Penguin, New York, 1993
[12] Richard Rhodes, “Changing perspectives on nuclear energy,” Nuclear News, July
2000.
[13] John W. Simpson, Nuclear Power from Underseas to Outerspace, American
Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, Illinois, USA, 1995.
[14] Peter Stoler, Decline and Fail, Dodd, Mead & Company, NY, 1985.
[15] Joseph P. Tomain, Nuclear Power Transformation, Indiana University Press,
Bloomington, Indiana, USA, 1987.
[16] Karl Winnacker and Karl Wirtz, Nuclear Energy in Germany, American Nuclear
Society, La Grange Park, Illinois, 1979.
[17] World Nuclear Association (WNA), “Outline History of Nuclear Energy,”
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf54.htm, WNA, London, February 2002.

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ANNEX IV: ADVANCED AND INNOVATIVE

TECHNOLOGIES

In response to the challenges currently facing nuclear power as outlined

in Section B.1, many countries are working on advanced reactor – fuel cycle
systems to improve their economics, safety and proliferation resistance. With
regard to advanced NPP designs, efforts focus particularly on making plants
simpler to operate, inspect, maintain and repair. Safety improvements include
features to further reduce the likelihood of accidents, to allow operators more
time to assess developments before acting, and to provide ever greater
protection against any possible releases of radioactivity to the environment.
There are two basic categories of advanced designs. Evolutionary designs
improve on existing designs through small or moderate modifications, with a
strong emphasis on maintaining proven design features to minimize techno-
logical risk. Evolutionary designs incorporate improvements based largely on
feedback from experience and the incorporation of new technological achieve-
ments, plus the possible introduction of some innovative features, e.g. passive
safety systems. Innovative designs incorporate radical conceptual changes in
design approaches or system configuration. They generally require substantial
R&D, feasibility tests, and a prototype or demonstration plant.
In the near term, most new NPPs are likely to be evolutionary designs
building on proven systems while incorporating technological advances and
often economies of scale. For the longer term, the focus is on innovative
designs, several of which are in the small-to-medium range (less then
700 MW(e)). These envision construction using factory built components,
including complete modular units for fast on-site installation, creating possible
economies of series production instead of economies of scale. Other
advantages foreseen for smaller units are easier financing, their greater
suitability for small electricity grids or remote locations, and their potential for
district heating, seawater desalination and other non-electric applications. All
should increase their attractiveness for developing countries.
The summary below of current developments categorizes designs
according to reactor type: water cooled reactors (both LWRs and HWRs), gas
cooled reactors and fast reactors that use liquid metal (e.g. sodium) or gas (e.g.
helium) as a coolant.

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A. Light Water Reactors (LWRs)

LWRs make up 80.5% of all NPPs in operation and are thus a natural
focus for evolutionary design improvements. The principal large evolutionary
designs are the ABWR (advanced boiling water reactor) and the ABWR-II of
Hitachi and Toshiba in Japan and General Electric (GE) in the USA; the
APWR (advanced pressurised water reactor) of Mitsubishi in Japan and
Westinghouse of the USA and the APWR+ of Mitsubishi; the BWR 90+ of
Westinghouse Atom of Sweden; the EPR and the SWR-1000 of Framatome
ANP from France and Germany; the ESBWR of GE; the AP-1000 of Westing-
house in the USA; the WWER-1000 of Atomenergoproject and Gidropress,
Russia; the KSNP+ and the APR-1400 of Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power and
the Korean Nuclear Industry; and the CNP-1000 of the China National Nuclear
Corporation.
The main small and medium-size evolutionary LWR designs are the AP-
600 and the integral IRIS designs of Westinghouse; the WWER-640 of
Atomenergoproject and Gidropress, the PAES-VBER of the Experimental
Design Bureau for Machine Building (OKBM) and the VK-300 of RDIPE, all
from Russia; the HSBWR and HABWR design concepts of Hitachi; and the
NP-300 of Technicatome in France.
Two ABWRs are operating at TEPCO’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa site, and
ten more are under construction or planned.21 In December 2003, Teollisuuden
Voima Oy (TVO) of Finland signed a turnkey contract with Framatome ANP
and Siemens AG for an EPR for the Olkiluoto site. In the Republic of Korea,
the first KSNP+ units are planned for Shin-Kori-1 and -2 with construction to
start in 2004 and 2005 respectively. Two APR-1400 units are also planned for
Shin-Kori, with construction of the first to start in June 2005. For the AP-1000,
Westinghouse submitted an application to the US NRC in March 2002 for Final
Design Approval and Design Certification. The Final Design Approval is
expected in 2004 and Design Certification is expected in 2004 or 2005. For
IRIS, Westinghouse plans to submit a Design Certification application in 2005,
with the objective of approval by 2008 or 2009. In 2002 the ESBWR design and
technology base were submitted to the US NRC as a first step toward Design
Certification. For Framatome’s SWR-1000, the pre-application phase for
Design Certification by the US NRC started in 2002.
For innovative LWR designs, SMART in the Republic of Korea and
CAREM in Argentina are both integral primary system designs, and both plan
verification and prototype or demonstration plants prior to commercial

21
Two ABWRs are under construction in Taiwan, China.

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deployment. Examples of innovative LWRs designed particularly to achieve a

high conversion ratio in converting fertile isotopes to fissile isotopes are the
RMWR of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) and the
RBWR of Hitachi. Thermodynamically supercritical water cooled systems
(SCPR) are being developed within the framework of GIF, and will most likely
require a prototype or demonstration plant.

B. Heavy Water Reactors (HWRs)

HWRs account for about 8% of operating NPPs. Their special features

are that they can be fueled with natural uranium due to their good neutron
economy made possible by using heavy water as the moderator, and that they
can be kept operating during refueling.
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited’s (AECL’s) evolutionary CANDU
design, the ACR-700, retains the general reactor characteristics and power
levels of the current CANDU-6 and CANDU-9, while aiming to improve the
economics through plant optimization and simplification. New features in the
ACR-700 are its use of slightly enriched uranium and light water coolant. It is
currently undergoing a pre-application licensing review by the US NRC, after
which AECL intends to seek a Design Certification in 2005. It is simultane-
ously undergoing a licensing review in Canada.
Within the framework of GIF, AECL is developing an innovative design,
the CANDU-X, which would use supercritical light water coolant to achieve
high thermodynamic efficiency.
India has made regular evolutionary improvements to its HWR designs
ever since its initial units at Rajasthan-1 and -2. In 2000 construction began on
two larger 490 MW(e) units at Tarapur. India is also developing the Advanced
Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR), a heavy water moderated, boiling light water
cooled, vertical pressure tube type reactor, that includes passive safety systems
and is designed for optimal thorium use.

C. Gas Cooled Reactors (GCRs)

Gas cooled reactors – both CO2 cooled Magnox reactors and advanced
gas cooled reactors (AGRs) – dominate nuclear electricity production in the
UK. There is a long history of R&D on high temperature reactors (HTGRs)
with helium as the coolant and graphite as the moderator, and prototype and
demonstration plants using the Rankine steam cycle have also been built and
operated. Distinctive features of HTGRs include the coated particle fuel

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design, which acts as a barrier against fission product release, and a low power
density, high heat capacity core that increases safety.
There is considerable current effort devoted to gas turbine direct Brayton
cycle helium cooled designs that promise high thermal efficiency and low
generation costs. Eskom, South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation,
and British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) are jointly developing a pebble bed small
modular HTR (PBMR) system. Also, the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy,
OKBM, General Atomics, Framatome and Fuji Electric are jointly developing
a small gas turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR). This is designed for
electricity production using weapons grade plutonium.
The high temperatures made possible by the inert helium coolant and
coated fuel particles are well above those possible in water cooled reactors, and
have prompted research for a number of high temperature heat applications
such as hydrogen production. HTGRs also have potential for low temperature
heat applications such as seawater desalination by providing steam produced
by the waste heat. Currently two helium cooled test reactors are in operation,
the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) at JAERI in Japan
and the HTR-10 at the Institute of Nuclear Energy Technology (INET) in
China. A helium cooled very high temperature reactor (VHTR) is being
developed within the framework of GIF with a focus on hydrogen production.
Similar independent efforts are ongoing in Russia with the Minatom’s OKBM
taking a lead.

D. Fast Reactors

Liquid metal cooled fast reactors (LMFRs) have been under

development for many years, primarily as breeders. They have accumulated
more than 200 reactor-years of operational experience based on successful
designs including the small Prototype Fast Reactor in the UK, the prototype
Phénix fast reactor in France, the BN-350 in Kazakhstan (which produced
electricity and desalinated seawater), BN-600 in Russia, Monju in Japan, and
the 1200 MW(e) Superphénix in France. In addition, there is a considerable
base of experience with lead-bismuth eutectic cooled propulsion (submarine)
reactors built and operated in the former USSR.
Fast reactors use fast neutrons for sustaining the fission process and can
simultaneously convert plentiful fertile isotopes of uranium or thorium into
fissile isotopes that can be used for fuel. Plutonium breeding allows fast
reactors to extract 60-70 times as much energy from uranium as do thermal
reactors. In addition, fast reactors could potentially help reduce plutonium
stockpiles, and reduce the required isolation time for high level radioactive

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waste by making use of transuranic radioisotopes and transmuting some of the

most cumbersome long lived fission products.
Current LMFR activities include the construction in China of the small
Chinese Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) with first criticality scheduled for
the end of 2005; the development of the small KALIMER design in the
Republic of Korea; the successful operation of the Indian Fast Breeder Test
Reactor (FBTR), especially for fuel irradiation and materials research; the
development of the medium size Prototype FBR (PFBR) in India for which
construction started in the final quarter of 2003; Japanese initiatives to restart
Monju; the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute’s ‘Feasibility Study on
a Commercialised Fast Reactor Cycle System’; efforts in Russia to complete
the BN-800 reactor at Beloyarsk by 2010; the 2003 restart of Phénix in France,
principally for experiments on long lived radioactive nuclide incineration and
transmutation; and several design studies around the world of advanced fast
reactors having improved economics and enhanced safety.
Development activities are underway in GIF on lead alloy and sodium
liquid metal cooled fast reactor systems and on gas (helium) cooled fast
reactors (GFR) with an integrated fuel cycle with full actinide recycle. Similar
efforts are ongoing in Russia.
Research on fast neutron spectrum hybrid systems (e.g. accelerator
driven systems (ADS)) is also underway in several countries. The potential
advantages of ADS systems are low waste production, high transmutation
capability, enhanced safety characteristics and better long term utilization of
resources (e.g. with thorium fuels). ADS research activities include the
development of the HYPER concept by the Republic of Korea, plus design
studies and research on basic physical processes in Russia, in eight EU
countries and in the US Advanced Accelerator Applications Program (recently
merged with the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative).

E. International Initiatives for Innovative Designs

Complementing the many initiatives above are two major international

efforts to promote innovation, the Generation IV International Forum (GIF)
and the IAEA’s International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel
Cycles (INPRO).
The US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and
Technology has for several years promoted development to move beyond
Generation II reactors (today’s commercial power stations) and Generation III
reactors (the currently available advanced LWRs) to the next generation,
Generation IV. The initiative led in 2000 to the establishment of GIF, an

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international effort to jointly define the future of nuclear energy research and
development. Members of GIF are Argentina, Brazil, Canada, France, Japan,
the Republic of Korea, South Africa, Switzerland, the UK, the USA and
Euratom. The IAEA and the OECD/NEA have permanent observer status in
the GIF Policy Group, which governs the project’s overall framework and
policies.
The objective as stated in the GIF charter is “the development of
concepts for one or more Generation IV nuclear energy systems that can be
licensed, constructed, and operated in a manner that will provide a competi-
tively priced and reliable supply of energy to the country where such systems
are deployed, while satisfactorily addressing nuclear safety, waste, proliferation
and public perception concerns”. GIF began with an evaluation of an extensive,
wide ranging collection of concepts. In 2002, the GIF Policy Group selected six
of these for future bilateral and multilateral cooperation, and defined a
‘technology roadmap’ to help prepare and guide subsequent research and
development. The six selected systems are:

● gas cooled fast reactor systems,

● lead alloy liquid metal cooled reactor systems,
● molten salt reactor systems,
● sodium liquid metal cooled reactor systems,
● supercritical water cooled reactor systems, and
● very high temperature gas reactor systems.

The IAEA’s INPRO has as its main objectives, first, helping to ensure
that nuclear energy is available to contribute to fulfilling energy needs in the
21st century in a sustainable manner and, second, bringing together technology
holders and technology users to consider jointly the international and national
actions required to achieve desired innovations in nuclear reactors and fuel
cycles. As of September 2003, members of INPRO included Argentina, Brazil,
Bulgaria, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, the Republic of
Korea, Pakistan, the Russian Federation, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, the
Netherlands, Turkey and the European Commission.
In its first phase, INPRO outlined the prospects and potential of nuclear
power and prepared guidelines for evaluating innovative concepts for both
nuclear reactors and fuel cycles. These guidelines include ‘user requirements’
for innovative nuclear energy systems, covering the areas of economics,
sustainability and environment, safety, waste management, and proliferation
resistance. They also outline a method (the ‘INPRO methodology’) for
applying INPRO user requirements to specific designs and concepts. In
addition, INPRO has produced recommendations on cross-cutting

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infrastructural, institutional, legal, social and human resource issues affecting

the evolution of nuclear power.
In July 2003, INPRO entered a new stage focussed on validating the
INPRO methodology through test applications in a series of case studies. The
results will be used to update and sharpen the user requirements and method-
ology, which will then be generally available for applications by Member States
and others to evaluate proposals and guide nuclear R&D strategies.

F. Fusion

Nuclear fusion requires much higher temperatures than nuclear fission –

on the order of 106 degrees Kelvin. At such high temperatures, the nuclear fuel
is in a ‘plasma state’ of free nuclei (ions) and electrons, and special techniques
are needed to confine the plasma since no materials can withstand the heat.
There are two major confinement concepts, magnetic (tokomak) and inertial.
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), which is the
focus of much of today’s experimental and theoretical fusion research, uses
magnetic confinement. ITER’s purpose is to demonstrate plasma burning and,
although ITER itself will not generate electricity, to show that electricity
generation from fusion can be safe and environmentally attractive. More
specifically, it is designed to generate 500 MW of fusion energy per pulse, with
each pulse expected to last several minutes. The amount of energy generated is
expected to be at least ten times higher than the amount of input energy
needed to run the reactor.
Currently ITER’s Engineering Design Activities stage has been
completed, and the project is nearing a decision on site selection. In 2003 ITER
gained three new members and lost one. The new members are the USA, which
had originally left ITER back in 1999, China and the Republic of Korea.
Canada withdrew from ITER in December 2003. That makes six members in
total, the other three being the European Union, Japan and Russia. The two
site proposals still under consideration are in France (Cadarache) and Japan
(Rokkesho-muro). Following a final decision on the site, the next step is estab-
lishing the ITER International Fusion Energy Organization, anticipated for
2004, which will then carry the project forward.
Research also continues on other magnetic confinement approaches such
as stellarators, compact tori and reversed field pinches, which also expands the
basic understanding of plasma physics and fusion.
Inertial confinement is being developed intensively by national
programmes in the USA and France. The National Ignition Facility at the
University of California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which is

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scheduled for completion in 2008, will be a stadium-sized facility containing a

192-beam, 1.8-Megajoule, 500-Terawatt, 351-nm laser system together with
nearly 100 experimental diagnostics. Operational testing for several of the
beams has already been completed.

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ANNEX V: MOLECULAR TECHNOLOGY - A PRACTICAL

REVOLUTION

A. Introduction

Many tremendous and exciting advances are taking place within the
biological field, facilitated by numerous biotechnological developments and
applications. These have enabled scientists to approach old problems in new
and innovative ways as well as allowing them to find unique solutions for
various biological, medical, and agricultural needs. The developments have
already started to make an impact on society. These technological advances
have led to the increased sensitivity and specificity of test assays, the miniaturi-
sation of instrumentation and development of point-of-care devices. This has
strengthened and encouraged the development of a strong knowledge base on
the ground. An example is ‘35S/32P phospho-imaging gene sequencing’ (a
technique that uses isotopes to produce rapid and sensitive images), which is
now considered a cost effective and implementable technology in several
developing countries. In addition, generic molecular and related isotopic
techniques such as southern blots, northern blots, two-dimensional electro-
phoresis, DNA macro- and micro-arrays and others are equally applicable to
the medical and agricultural fields.

B. Isotopic Methods

Isotopic methods have played an integral part in the development of

molecular biology since its inception many decades ago. Despite the emergence
of various alternatives with their associated advantages, both non-stable and
stable radioisotopes are still used by dedicated users for established applica-
tions and still continue to attract new converts. The high sensitivity and low
detection limits unique to isotopic labelling were the main driving forces
behind the commercial development of more user-friendly equipment. Radio-
isotopes represent one of the main detection systems used in molecular biology,
hence the emphasis given in this report. Nevertheless, it has to be realized that
the current advances in molecular technology span the whole discipline,
including the development of numerous alternative approaches.

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C. Genomics

The term ‘genomics’ was coined some 20 years ago to define the study of
genes and their functions. It followed the development of various technologies
and instrumentation required to determine the nucleotide sequences of entire
genomes, during the late 70s and early 80s. The DNA sequence is often referred
to as the ‘blueprint of life’ and the impact of its elucidation over the last few
decades has been compared to that of the discovery of the periodic table in
chemistry. Initially, sequence determination was limited to the simplest
organisms such as viruses possessing not more than 16 genes. In 1990, the most
ambitious scientific endeavour in the history of life sciences was launched, viz.
the sequencing of the full human genome thought to contain about 100 000
genes. This enormous task was completed in 2000 at a cost of $3 billion. The full
genome sequences of the rat, mouse and some pathogenic micro-organisms are
now also available and similar studies on a variety of other organisms such as
cattle, chickens, sheep, goats and pigs are in progress.
Following the successful sequencing of the human genome there has been
a flurry of activity, mainly by multinational biotechnology companies, to
identify and patent genes with possible applications in human medicine and
agriculture. This reflects the growing awareness among scientists and investors
of the enormous potential within this field, both for further scientific
discoveries as well as future financial profits.

D. Molecular Diagnostics

One area that has been escalating exponentially is molecular diagnostics

with its associated commercialization. The term molecular diagnostics was
coined to distinguish diagnostic techniques that depend on gene sequences
from the more conventional in vitro tests - a field in which the Agency has been
particularly active. In the USA, for example, the demand for molecular
diagnostic testing has increased by 600% over the past two years. Molecular
detection can contribute significantly to improved disease management and
control in various ways. The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has revolu-
tionized this field and is being increasingly implemented in developing as well
as developed countries, with significant assistance by the Agency in many cases.

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E. Medical Applications

There are numerous conventional laboratory diagnostic assays for human

infectious diseases that are often slow, relatively insensitive, non-specific,
require invasive clinical procedures and often do not provide quantitative
information. In the case of M. leprae, M. tuberculosis and Chlamydia, the
infectious agent is either uncultivable or difficult to culture. Molecular
detection methods can provide not only definitive identification but also differ-
ential diagnosis of the etiologic agent(s), as with respiratory infections due to
Legionella and Mycoplasma pneumoniae where clinical features and serology
are uninformative. This information is essential for the prompt institution of
appropriate treatment. In the case of Herpes simplex and Chlamydia
trachomatis infections, PCR-based detection is currently being considered as
the possible gold standard. In the human health sector, genes or gene groups
have already been identified that are involved in genetic diseases such as cystic
fibrosis. For thalassemia, out of a spectrum of 200 mutations about 10 are
responsible for 90% of the disease in any one country. In Cyprus for example,
simplified diagnostic algorithms have been established and national genetic
counselling programmes have been established.

F. Livestock Applications

In animal health also, the partial sequencing of the genomes of important

pathogens (‘gene sequencing’ as opposed to ‘genome sequencing’) is already
widely used to study the epidemiology of disease outbreaks, by inter alia
determining the origin of infection. This has contributed significantly to
limiting disease spread, as was the case with recent foot and mouth disease
outbreaks. In addition, PCR can differentiate between the S19 Brucella abortus
vaccine strain and wild-type organisms within hours compared to the classical
microbiological test, which could take several weeks. Similarly, micro-satellite
analyses are used extensively in parentage verification, for the identification of
individuals, in the study of population genetics in various animal and plant
species and in the conservation of livestock breeds or wildlife species. Genome
sequencing of infectious agents has also served as an aid in understanding the
causes of disease, where epidemics originate and in improving their control.
The detection of drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is being
effectively achieved using PCR-dot blot hybridization and 32P radiolabelled
probes, or micro-arrays that allow for the batch analysis of samples. In
South Africa, 90% of all multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) cases can

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be detected in five days by screening for just three codons directly from
sputum, as opposed to conventional methods that can take eight weeks.
The identification of genes responsible for natural resistance to diseases
could lead not only to an improvement in agricultural resource management,
but also in the selective breeding and cloning of resistant animals and plants,
thereby enhancing or replacing conventional methods of disease control. One
of the most important trends with an added market potential is termed
molecular breeding, i.e. the application of genomics to the breeding of animals
and plants with desired genetic traits. The natural resistance to specific diseases,
found in individual animals or local breeds can be used to develop resistant
breeds for example. Several genes and traits have already been identified and
sequenced and can be used for this purpose. It has been shown, for example,
that the incidence of resistance to brucellosis in a cattle herd can be raised
within one generation from 18% to almost 53.6% by breeding with parents that
tested positive for the ‘brucella resistance gene’. Total resistance may not be
achievable, but partial resistance would enhance effective disease
management. Another area of potentially important significance is an
improvement in the utilization of low-grade forage by ruminants through the
transfer of specific genes to ruminal bacteria, which could have important
agricultural and economic impacts in certain marginal areas.

G. Biochips

In the health sector, the most important application will be the

development of diagnostic kits capable of detecting multiple infective agents in
a single, highly sensitive, specific and fast assay e.g. biochips. Such tests can also
be adapted for field use that would reduce costs considerably, always an
important consideration in veterinary diagnostics. The high sensitivity of such
assays also means that an infection could be diagnosed in an animal before any
symptoms are seen, a great advantage where an epidemic needs to be
controlled. In addition, due to its specificity and sensitivity, molecular
technology lends itself readily for early warning systems. It is anticipated that a
single biochip could be developed for each species, allowing for the detection of
all relevant infectious agents. At least one pharmaceutical company is actively
pursuing the development of a ‘backpack’ laboratory for field use especially in
developing countries. A further refinement combining molecular diagnostics
with micro-array nanotechnology, allows for the simultaneous detection of
deviations in thousands of genes using a single glass ‘chip’ with immobilized
probes and fluorescence-based detection. This technology, however, remains
out of the reach of most diagnostic laboratories due to the prohibitive cost of

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equipment (about $200 000). In such settings, a relatively cost-effective method

using nylon macroarray chips and radioisotopic (autoradiographic) detection
using phosphor-imaging, is a viable alternative. This is amenable to small-scale
automation.

H. Biopharmaceuticals

By studying the genetic basis for the individual variation in response to

specific drugs, the most suitable therapy for an individual can be selected to
avoid unwanted side-effects. Such information can also be used in drug
discovery and in developmental strategies such as the design, development and
production of new or improved biopharmaceuticals for the treatment of
diseases. Despite its tremendous potential, the molecular design, development
and production of biopharmaceuticals has not been fully realized as most
existing recombinant products are naturally occurring human proteins. Of
these, only a growth hormone has found wider application as a stimulant of
milk production in dairy cattle. Some progress is being made in achieving
acceptance in the community, as seen with the approving of an antisense oligo-
nucleotide drug, fomivirsen, for the treatment of cytomegalovirus retinitis, an
opportunistic infection associated with HIV/AIDS.

I. Scintillation Proximity Assay

Scintillation proximity assay (SPA) was commercially introduced in 1991

as a rapid and sensitive assay with the capability of high-throughput screening
of a wide variety of molecular interactions within a homogeneous system. It
utilizes microscopic beads containing a scintillant that can be stimulated to emit
light. This stimulation event only occurs when radiolabelled molecules of
interest (3H or 33P) are bound to the surface of the bead. SPA is a versatile
system and applications include analyses of receptor-ligand binding, enzyme
assays, radioimmunoassays, protein-protein and protein-DNA interactions. It is
used widely by the drug industry for drug design and discovery. Another
important application of SPA is in the detection of enzyme activity. The basic
assay involves substrate capture on SPA beads. If an enzyme acts on this
substrate, it leads to addition or removal of the radioisotope, which results in a
corresponding increase or decrease in signal from the bead. Applications
include the screening of drugs that target enzyme function e.g. to screen anti-
viral drugs that inhibit viral enzymes.

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J. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy uses high magnetic

fields and radio-frequency pulses to manipulate the spin states of nuclei -
including the stable isotopes 1H, 13C and 15N. A NMR spectrum can be
obtained of a molecule incorporating such nuclei and can then indicate its
structure. The accuracy of NMR spectroscopy for protein-structure analysis is
comparable to that of X-ray crystallography. NMR-based screening has
become an important tool in the pharmaceutical industry, especially for
methods that provide information on the location of small molecular binding
sites on the surface of a drug target. In this regard, NMR and X-ray crystallog-
raphy act synergistically.

K. Vaccines

Prevention and control of disease epidemics is a more cost-effective

strategy than treatment. In addition, due to developments in the field of
molecular epidemiology, improved management of disease is now possible.
There is a great need in the market for more user-friendly vaccines that are
safer, more heat-stable, confer lifelong protection and are also cost-effective.
Improved delivery systems for vaccines as well as more effective adjuvants are
also required to achieve this. Much effort is being expended at present on the
generation of heat-stable vaccines, for example against Newcastle disease, a
devastating disease of chickens especially in developing countries.
The identification of specific genes of microbial and viral pathogens that
encode for immunogenic protein antigens (proteins) is an important goal for
the development of improved vaccines. One approach is to identify the
antigens responsible for stimulating the formation of an antibody response
after infection, then identifying and isolating the responsible genes and using
these to produce recombinant or subunit vaccines. The increasing presence on
the market of such vaccines for human use (e.g. the hepatitis B recombinant
vaccine) indicates that once current problems are resolved, the genomic
approach to vaccine development will dominate the market. Although a
recombinant vaccine for rabies has been successfully used in France to
eradicate fox rabies, no recombinant vaccine has yet reached the veterinary
market in the developing world. A heat-stable chicken-specific poxvirus
recombinant vaccine, carrying the gene responsible for conferring protection
against Newcastle disease, is presently being investigated for its application in
developing countries.

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L. Gene Therapy

The most futuristic application of biotechnology is probably gene therapy.

There are many exciting possibilities, but so far only a few experimental
attempts to replace or repair defective human genes have been reported.
Further experimentation in animals will probably precede the application in
man. It is envisaged that inter-gene and intra-gene manipulations will play the
predominant role in this field. The feasibility of gene therapy and its impact will
be driven by its uniqueness and its potential for use as in an only option
scenario. For most situations, however, the biotechnological revolution will be
driven by the need to have better and safer solutions to combating diseases, and
for improving the livelihoods of people. It is foreseen that biotechnology will
have a major impact on market trends in the future. Analysts believe that the
first area to benefit from these developments will be continued diagnostic
applications, while market opportunities for therapeutic applications using
gene therapy is probably still some way off.

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ANNEX VI: RADIOISOTOPE AND RADIATION

TECHNOLOGY

A. Introduction

A large variety of nuclear techniques are available for industrial, environ-

mental, medical and research applications. Radiation and isotopic technology,
such as gamma irradiation, electron beam or ion beam, as well as nucleonic
gauges, radiotracers and sealed sources, non-destructive testing and nuclear
analytical techniques are used for process control, material modifications, to
reduce harmful industrial emissions, to reprocess waste streams and for sterili-
zation of medical products and wastewater treatment. Non-destructive
evaluation of welds, castings, assembled machinery and ceramics help to make
industrial processes safer and more cost-effective. Radiotracers, sealed sources
and nucleonic gauges are used for natural resource exploration in the oil
industry, in mineral processing and waste water treatment plants. The
application of these nuclear techniques has considerable economic and
environmental impact as they are introduced in developing countries.

B. Radioisotopes

Radioisotopes make important contributions in several sectors of

economic significance including medicine, food processing, industry,
agriculture, structural safety and research. They are generally produced in
research reactors or cyclotrons. More than 150 different radioisotopes in
different forms are in use for various applications.
It has been observed that the consumption of isotopes in a country
depends on the level of its economic development and industrialization: the
more advanced, the more the consumption. However, the pattern of use is
similar in all countries. The medical field accounts for the majority of the appli-
cations, followed by industry and research. The potential for expansion of
radioisotope applications is, however, very large.

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B.1. Current Status of Radioisotope Production

B.1.1. Radioisotopes for medicine

Radioisotopes in medicine are used either in liquid form, called radiop-

harmaceuticals, for diagnosis and therapy or as a solid sealed source for
therapy, mainly for cancer. Radioisotopes also find extensive applications in in
vitro diagnosis, the most important being in immunoassays.
Radiopharmaceuticals are used mainly for diagnostic imaging studies.
However, therapeutic applications have shown a substantial growth in the last
few years. The radioisotope 99mTc is used in more than 70% of the diagnostic
imaging studies for assessing the dynamic functions of the various organs of the
body as well as for the localization of infections. About 20% of medical appli-
cations use radioisotopes such as 201Tl, 111In, 67Ga, 123I, 81mKr, 131I and 133Xe. The
use of the cyclotron-produced long-lived isotope 201Tl for cardiac studies is also
widespread.
The use of radioisotopes for Positron Emission Tomography (PET)
studies is showing a faster growth rate. 18F-fluoro deoxy glucose (18FDG)
accounts for more than 90% of PET imaging with the remaining 10% being
accounted for by 11C, 13N and 15O based radiopharmaceuticals. Interest in
setting up medical cyclotrons and PET facilities has grown in many developing
countries in recent years.
Radiopharmaceuticals based on 131I have a primary role in the treatment
of hyperthyroidism and thyroid cancer. The treatments of certain other cancers,
arthritis and palliation of bone pain due to secondary cancer using radioiso-
topes show a substantial growth. 131I, 32P, 153Sm, 90Y and 186Re are the major
isotopes used in therapy. The annual turnover in this area is more than
$30 million and is growing at the rate of 10% per annum.
Radioactive sealed sources are widely used for teletherapy and brachy-
therapy of cancer. About 1500 teletherapy machines using the radioisotope
60
Co are estimated to be in use worldwide. The main radioisotopes used in
brachytherapy are 192Ir, 137Cs, 125I, 198Au, 106Ru and 103Pd. About
3000 brachytherapy centres are estimated to be in operation worldwide. High
dose rate sources using 192Ir are becoming increasingly popular. These use high
specific activity 192Ir sources, which are encapsulated by precision technology
using advanced laser welding machines. The implantation of tiny sources of 125I
for ocular and prostate cancer is also being tried. The treatment of prostate
cancer using 103Pd has become very successful. The production of these sources
requires remote fabrication including encapsulation by remote welding
procedures.

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B.1.2. Radioisotopes for industry

Radioisotopes are used for nucleonic control systems, radiation

processing, non-destructive testing (NDT) and in radiotracer studies. Sealed
sources of 137Cs, 60Co, 241Am, 85Kr, 147Pm, 90Sr/90Y, 204Tl, 252Cf, 63Ni, 55Fe, 109Cd,
57
Co and 241Am-Be neutron source are used in nucleonic control systems. 60Co
in the form of high intensity sources is the main isotope used for radiation
processing. 192Ir sources are used in more than 90% of gamma radiography
devices. 169Yb and 75Se sources are other radioisotopes used in NDT. A large
number of isotopes in various chemical forms are used as tracers in industry.

B.2. Future Trends

Radioisotopes will continue to play an important role in national devel-

opment. With many techniques having an important bearing on either
industrial activity or health care, the sustainability of radioisotope supply or
‘isotope security’ continues to be a major cause of concern in view of the
decrease in the number of operating research reactors worldwide and the diffi-
culties in transporting radioisotopes worldwide because of security concerns.
The radionuclides in demand in regular medical diagnosis will continue to
be 99mTc, 131I, 201Tl, 111In, 123I and 18F. A substantial part of the use of 201Tl for
cardiac studies is likely to be carried out with 99mTc radiopharmaceuticals
because of cost advantage and ready availability. The use of 99mTc generators,
the technology of which is well standardized, is expected to increase signifi-
cantly due to the establishment of an increased number of nuclear medicine
centres in both developing and developed countries. Cold kits for the
formulation of 99mTc radiopharmaceuticals for different imaging studies will be
expanded, and new 99mTc radiopharmaceuticals based on peptides and other
bio-molecules will be added.
The use of 18FDG will increase because of better refined chemistry,
starting from the production of the radioisotope through to the preparation of
the radiopharmaceuticals and final quality assurance before product delivery.
With ready availability of 18F in several centres, further research and
development of 18F labelled molecules for various applications is expected to
increase. Long-lived PET tracers i.e. 124I and 76Br are under development for
studying slow processes such as monitoring gene therapy. 123I production via
123
Xe gas target would become more widespread and economical, and may
emerge as another widely used diagnostic isotope. 68Ge-68Ga generators are
likely to see an increase in demand for use in PET where cyclotrons are not
available.

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Centralized production and distribution of 99mTc radiopharmaceuticals

and 18FDG are expected to evolve from current, predominantly hospital-based
production because of increased regulatory concerns and good manufacturing
practice requirements. Even though 99Mo production might continue to be
dominated by two or three large producers, widespread use of 99mTc coupled
with the logistics of supplies and the reluctance of airlines to carry radioactive
material could generate a need for many small-scale producers of fission 99Mo
serving regional needs.
There will be considerable interest in therapy using radiopharma-
ceuticals, and the range of isotopes and their products in regular use are
expected to expand significantly. Refined technologies for both 90Y and 188Re
generators will be available. Because of the similarity in the chemistry of 99mTc
and 188Re, research is being vigorously pursued into the development of new
radiopharmaceuticals, based on peptides, and into other target specific
biomolecules labelled with them, for diagnosis followed by therapy. The availa-
bility of 188Re in sufficient quantities will be a major problem due to the limited
availability of high flux reactors for its production.
The use of 90Y radiopharmaceuticals for the treatment of cancer has
shown a considerable increase. The use of 90Y is advantageous because the
parent radionuclide 90Sr is available in large quantities from nuclear waste in
fuel reprocessing programmes. The recovery of 90Sr followed by large-scale
centralized separation of 90Y or preparation of ready-to-use radionuclide
generators could become a major radiochemistry programme in other
countries that have fuel reprocessing facilities. Several 90Y based radiopharma-
ceuticals for cancer therapy and treatment of arthritis are at present in the
clinical trial stage but their widespread application in the near future is
envisaged.
The use of many beta particle emitting isotopes, including 177Lu, 166Ho,
153
Sm, 165Dy and 186Re, for therapy could increase by taking advantage of local
reactor production. 177Lu offers a particular advantage, as this isotope can be
prepared with very high specific activity and in large quantities, even in reactors
having moderate flux. The near future could see large-scale deployment of
177
Lu in cancer therapy. 124I and 103Pd from cyclotrons will also be increasingly
used for therapy. 125I and 103Pd seed production technology for brachytherapy
applications will be in demand in many countries.

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C. Radiation Technology for Clean and Safe Industry

C.1. Radiation Processing

As well as economic factors, radiation and radioisotope applications have

great impact on different aspects of social and industrial development, for
example:

— Human health (radiation sterilization of medical products, blood and

transplanting grafts irradiation);
— Environment protection (electron beam flue gas and wastewater
treatment, gamma rays sludge hygienization);
— Clean and safe industry (radiotracer leakage testing and Non Destructive
Testing (NDT) of installations, pipes, tanks);
— Quality system enhancement (nuclear analytical techniques, NDT);
— Process optimization (radiotracers and Nucleonic Control Systems);
— Raw materials exploration and exploitation (on-line processing, borehole
logging); and
— Homeland security (cargo inspections, governmental mail irradiation).

Radiation and radioisotope applications make a large contribution to

economies. The economical scale of industrial applications of radiation and
isotopes in the USA and Japan, based on earlier studies, is given in Table VI.1.

TABLE VI.1.

ITEM ECONOMIC SCALE (billions$)

USA JAPAN

1. Sterilized medical supplies 4.8 2.3

2. Semiconductors 37.2 28.4
3. Radiographic testing (NDT) 0.65 0.26
4. Radiation cured radial tyres 13.5 8.4
Total 56.15 39.36

The number of industrial gamma irradiators, working on a service basis or

installed on-line worldwide exceeds 160, of which 65 units are operational in
developing countries. More than 20% of these gamma irradiators have
activities over 1 MCi of 60Co.

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The total number of electron beam accelerators installed exceeds 13 000,

with close to 1200 units being used for radiation processing. New environ-
mental applications demand the development of high power, reliable acceler-
ators. The most powerful radiation processing facility, applying electron
accelerators over 1 MW total power, has been constructed for power-plant-
emitted flue-gases purification in Poland.
The concept of electron beam to X-ray conversion is a new technological
approach for constructing powerful X-ray machines, with R&D under way in
some pilot units. A breakthrough in the technology is expected after work on a
high energy unit (up to 700 kW), which is already under test in Belgium.
Chemical or material engineering mostly applies high temperature and/or
high pressure processes for material synthesis/modification. Often a catalyst is
required to speed up the reaction. Radiation, however, is a unique source of
energy that can initiate chemical reactions at any temperature, including
ambient, under any pressure and in any phase (gas, liquid or solid) without use
of catalysts.
Polymers are often irradiated, either for modification or as components
of radiation sterilized medical products. Therefore, changes in their structure
may be beneficial or undesirable. Polymer R&D is broad and most develop-
ments are foreseen in this area.
Another possible application is the processing of natural polymers.
Cellulose materials for the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industry have already
been fabricated.
Radiation sterilization is a well-established technique, and multi-
technique services employing radiation and heat have emerged recently. A new
application of these techniques is decontamination of mail against biological
contaminants, such as anthrax.
Some radiation processes have promising applications for environment
conservation. The plant for liquid sludge hygienization using a 60Co gamma
source has been in operation in India since 1991.
A pilot plant for dye factory wastewater treatment equipped with an
electron accelerator has been constructed in South Korea, and an industrial
project aiming to treat 10 000 cubic meters of effluent per day is in progress.
Electron beam flue gas treatment plants are operating in coal-fired plants
in China and Poland purifying flue gases from 100 MW(e) units. High efficiency
of SOx and NOx removal has been achieved with a by-product of high quality
fertilizer. The other possible application of the technology is Volatile Organic
Compound and Polycyclic Hydrocarbon treatment, e.g. in municipal waste
incinerator plants and flue gas purification units. The advantage of this
technology over conventional ones has been clearly demonstrated, both from a
technical and economic point of view.

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Conservation of archaeological artefacts and art objects by radiation

(gamma rays or electron beam) appears to have prospects. Ongoing studies on
the application of radiation for consolidation revealed that lacquer, textiles,
paper, objects made of wood, stone and gypsum can be considered for conser-
vation purposes.

C.2. Radiotracers and Sealed Source Applications

Radioisotopes (3H, 82Br, 99m Tc, 140La, 24Na, 131I) are applied as
radiotracers in industry and the environment. Oil fields and refineries, chemical
and metallurgical industries and wastewater purification installations are the
particular users.
Radioisotope techniques (radiotracers, gamma scanning, tomography
and single particle tracking) are extensively used to identify and quantify
multiphase reactors (phase hold-up distributions, velocity and mixing
patterns). Multiphase reactor technology is the basis for petroleum refining,
synthesis gas conversion to fuels and chemicals, bulk commodity chemicals
production, manufacture of special chemicals and polymers, and the conversion
of undesired products into recyclable materials. Quantification of the reactor
performance requires a description of: (i) kinetics on a molecular scale; (ii) the
effect of transport on kinetics on a single eddy or single catalyst particle scale;
and (iii) the phase distribution, flow pattern and mixing in the reactor on the
reactor scale. It is critical to understand and predict at what rates each reactant
can be supplied to the micro scale and how changes in reactor size or operating
conditions affect these rates of supply. While progress has been made in under-
standing fundamental reaction mechanisms and in computing from first
principles the effect of mass transfer on the reaction rate locally, the description
of the reactor scale flow pattern and mixing is in general primitive and rests on
the assumption of ideal flow patterns. Radioisotope techniques help optimizing
multiphase reactors saving hundreds of million of US dollars annually
worldwide.
Information gained from interwell use of tracers in oil fields is indispen-
sable for the evaluation and optimization of oil field performance. It is possible
to make qualitative or semi-quantitative evaluations, as was the case of a
reservoir in Colombia, which is naturally heavily compartmentalized.
Information about fluid flow across faults, and therefore the effect of water
injection could only be studied by the use of tracers. Several wells were
uniquely labelled, and the exercise showed that there was an unexpectedly
good communication across a fault that originally was a suspected barrier.

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D. Nuclear Analytical Techniques

Nuclear analytical techniques play an important role in the certification

of element content in a variety of materials. Particularly in international trade,
for example in food, legal limits have to be observed and analytical results need
to be based on mutual recognition, which is obtained if laboratories work
according to internationally accepted quality standards such as the ISO 17025.
National accreditation following the installation of a concise quality system
assures nuclear analytical laboratories’ superior performance compared to
conventional analysis.
New trends in nuclear applications can be seen in the development of
robust, automated and portable instruments, which can be used under
laboratory as well as under field conditions. Flexible X-ray fluorescence
instruments have been used for non-destructive analysis of art objects. Portable
neutron sources of variable strength are developed for field applications of
prompt gamma neutron activation analysis enabling fast and non-destructive
element screening of, e.g., unknown packages suspected of illicit trafficking of
nuclear materials. There are different nuclear analytical techniques applied for
package inspection depending on the size and content of the packages. Dual
energy X-ray absorption analysers are most familiar in their use as on-line
security devices screening baggage at airports.
Long lived radionuclides and stable isotopes are increasingly used to
study metabolic effects of essential and toxic elements in plants, animals and
the human body. Monte Carlo simulations of neutrons and gamma rays enable
the design of new irradiation and counting devices optimized for a particular
application.
Nuclear techniques also serve in preserving human cultural heritage.
Neutron Activation Analysis is very sensitive multi-elemental analysis that
allows identification of art objects. Coins and other metallic artefacts, stones,
pottery and ceramics have all been subjected to trace element fingerprinting to
distinguish originals from fakes. Neutron activation analysis has been success-
fully demonstrated as a technique to add valuable information to the interpre-
tation of archaeological problems.

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REFERENCES

[1] Ananthakrishnan, M. 2003, Radiotracers–Production and Application, Proceed-

ings of BRNS-DAE National Symposium on Nuclear and Radiochemistry,
BARC, Mumbai, India, 57.
[2] Chapiro, A., 2002, Polymer irradiation: past-present and future. Rad.Phys.Chem.
63(3-6), 207-209
[3] Cleland, M.R., Parks, L.A., 2003a, Medium and high-energy electron beam
radiation processing equipment for commercial applications.
Nucl.Instrum.Methods in Phys.Res.Sec.B, 208, 74-89.
[4] Cleland, M.R., Parks, L.A., Cheng, S., 2003b, Application for radiation processing
of materials. Nucl.Instrum.Methods in Phys.Res.Sec.B, 208, 66-73.
[5] Drobny, J.G., 2003, Radiation Technology for Polymers. CRC Press, New York.
[6] Druker, M.P., 1994, Ethical responsibilities of environmental engineers. In: Reme-
diation of Hazardous Waste Contaminated Soils. Eds.Wyse, D.L., Trantolo, D. J.,
Marcel Dekker Inc., New York.
[7] Fairand, B.P., 2002, Radiation Sterilization for Health Care Products – X-Ray,
Gamma and Electron Beam. CRC Press, New York.
[8] IAEA, 2003, Directory of Commercial Radiation Processing Facilities in Member
States. Vienna, Austria, in press.
[9] IAEA, 2002, Radioisotope Applications for Troubleshooting and Optimising
Industrial Processes, Vienna.
[10] IAEA, 2003, Report from a technical meeting; emerging applications of radiation
processing for 21st century. Vienna, Austria.
[11] IAEA, 2003, Tracer Applications in Oil Field Applications, Vienna
[12] Morrissey, R.F., Herring, C.M., 2002, Radiation sterilization: past, present and
future. Rad. Phys. Chem. 63 (3-6), 217-221.
[13] Nordion, 2003, Supplies of Contract Irradiation Services. Ottawa, Canada.
[14] Tagawa, S., et al. Economic scale of utilization of radiation (I): Industry. Compar-
ison between Japan and USA, Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, Vol.
39, No. 9, pp. 1002-1007, September 2002. A publication of the Atomic Energy
Society of Japan.
[15] IAEA, Technical Report Series No. 416. Nuclear Techniques in Archaeological
Investigations, Vienna, August 2003

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ANNEX VII: DESALINATION

A. Introduction

Seventy percent of the planet is covered with water, but only 2.5% of that
is freshwater. Nearly 70% of this freshwater is frozen in the icecaps of
Antarctica and Greenland. Most of the rest is in the form of soil moisture or in
deep inaccessible aquifers (Helmer, 1997), or comes in the form of monsoons
and floods that are difficult to contain and exploit. Less than 0.08% of the
world’s water is thus readily accessible for direct human use, and even that is
very unevenly distributed.
Currently about 2.3 billion people live in water-stressed areas and among
them 1.7 billion live in water-scarce areas, where the water availability per
person is less than 1000 m3/year. Statistics show that by 2025 the number of
people suffering from water stress or scarcity could swell to 3.5 billion, with
2.4 billion expected to live in water-scarce regions. Water scarcity is a global
issue, and every year new countries are affected by growing water problems.
Better water conservation, water management, pollution control and
water reclamation are all part of the solution to projected water stress, as are
new sources of fresh water, including the desalination of seawater. Desali-
nation technologies have been well established since the mid-20th century and
widely deployed in the Middle East and North Africa. The contracted capacity
of desalination plants has increased steadily since 1965 and is now about

FIG. VII.1. Cumulative worldwide desalination capacity. The top line shows total
operating and contracted capacity. The bottom line shows just operating capacity.

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32.4 million m3/d worldwide, as shown in Figure VII.1 (Wangnik, 2002).

This corresponds to approximately 15 233 units with an average capacity of
2000 m3/d.
Large scale commercially available desalination processes can generally
be classified into two categories: (a) distillation processes that require mainly
heat plus some electricity for ancillary equipment, and (b) membrane processes
that require only electricity. In the first category (distillation) there are two
major processes: multi-stage flash (MSF) and multi-effect distillation (MED).
Seawater is heated in both processes, the steam that evaporates is condensed
and collected as freshwater, and the residual brine is discharged. In the second
category (membranes) is the reverse osmosis process (RO), in which pure
water passes from the high pressure seawater side of a semi-permeable
membrane to the low pressure freshwater permeate side. The pressure differ-
ential must be high enough to overcome the natural tendency for water to
move from the low concentration freshwater side of a membrane to the high
concentration seawater side in order to balance osmotic pressures. Energy
consumption, including energy for seawater pumps and water pre-treatment, is
lowest in the RO process. Energy inputs, whether in the form of heat or
electricity have historically been produced largely by conventional fossil fuels.

B. The Role of Nuclear Power

Japan now has over 125 reactor-years of nuclear powered desalination

experience as shown in Table VII.1. Kazakhstan had accumulated 26 reactor-
years before shutting down the Aktau fast reactor at the end of its lifetime in
1999. As shown in the table, the experience gained with the Aktau reactor is
unique as its desalination capacity was orders of magnitude higher than at
other facilities.
Looking to the future, there are two main reasons for focusing on
expanding nuclear power’s contribution to both heat and electricity for desali-
nation. One is the expanding demand for freshwater as described above, and
the second is the increasing concern about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
and pollution from fossil fuels. There is also now a growing emphasis on small
and medium size reactors, which may prove important for desalination because
the countries most in need of freshwater often have limited industrial infra-
structures and electricity grids. The size of the grid limits the possibilities for
integrating a co-generating nuclear power plant into the grid to supply the
electricity, in addition to meeting the energy requirements of a desalination
plant. The largest power unit that can be integrated into an electricity grid is
about 10-20% of the grid capacity.

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TABLE VII.1. EXPERIENCE WITH NUCLEAR DESALINATION

(IAEA, 1998, 2000; WANGNICK, 2000)

Start of
Power, Water
Loca- power Desal.
Country Unit name Phase MWe Capacity,
tion opera- Process
net m3/day
tion

Ikata-1 Ehime Comm. 1977 538 2000 MSF

Ikata-2 Ehime Comm. 1982 538
Ikata-3 Ehime Comm. 1994 846 2000 RO
Ohi-1 Fukui Comm. 1979 1120 6500
MSF x 2
Ohi-2 Fukui Comm. 1979 1120 MSF+
MDE x 1
Ohi-3 Fukui Comm. 1991 1127 MDE=3900
RO x 2
Japan Ohi-4 Fukui Comm. 1993 1127 RO=2600
Genkai-3 Saga Comm. 1994 1127 1000 MED
Genkai-4 Saga Comm. 1997 1127
Takahama-3 Fukui Comm. 1985 830 1000 MED
Takahama-4 Fukui Comm. 1985 830
Kashiwazaki-
Niigata Comm. 1985 1067 1000 MSF
Kariwa 1
MED/
Kazakhstan BN-350 Aktau Comm. 1973 70 120 000
MSF

The High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor (HTGR) design, one of the
leading reactor concepts currently under consideration for future nuclear
power plant deployment, is one of the candidate reactor designs well suited for
such process heat applications. Traditionally emphasis has been on HTGR
suitability for high temperature applications such as hydrogen production, but
its potential for low temperature applications such as nuclear desalination is
attracting interest with the provision of virtually cost-free waste heat at the
cycle sink boundary, and at the desired range of temperatures (100-120 ºC)
needed for desalination. Since a good proportion of the total production cost of
seawater desalination - in the range of 30% to 50% - is attributed to energy
cost, the potential exists for a significant reduction in the cost of freshwater
production using an HTGR in co-generation mode, boosting thermal
utilization efficiency and promising a safe, clean and economically competitive
heat source.

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C. Current Developments

Table VII.2 summarizes past experience as well as current developments

and plans for nuclear powered desalination. Most of the technologies in Table
VII.2 are land-based, but the table also includes a Russian initiative for barge-
mounted floating desalination plants. Floating desalination plants could be
especially attractive for responding to temporary demands for potable water.

TABLE VII.2. REACTOR TYPES AND DESALINATION PROCESSES

Reactor Type Location Desalination Status

Process

LMFR Kazakhstan (Aktau) MED, MSF in service till 1999

PWRs Japan (Ohi, Takahama, MED, MSF, RO in service with operating
Ikata, Genkai) experience of over 100
reactor-years.
Rep. of Korea, MED, RO under design
Argentina, etc.
Russia MED, RO under design (floating unit)
BWR Japan (Kashiwazaki) MSF never in service following
testing in 1980s, due to
alternative freshwater
sources; dismantled in 1999.
PHWR India (Kalpakkam) MSF/RO being connected
Canada RO (preheat) under design
Pakistan (KANUPP) MED under design
NHR China MED under design
HTGR South Africa, France, MED, MSF, RO under consideration
The Netherlands

The following paragraphs provide additional detail on the new develop-

ments listed in Table VII.2:

● Argentina has identified a site for its small reactor (CAREM), which
could be used for desalination. Depending on financing, construction
could begin in the near future.
● Canada has embarked on a three-year project to validate its innovative
reverse osmosis (RO) system design concepts.
● China is proceeding with several conceptual designs of nuclear desali-
nation for coastal Chinese cities.

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NTR2004E.book Page 82 Thursday, August 12, 2004 2:44 PM

● France has a joint European study on reactor development for nuclear

desalination (the EURODESAL Project).
● Egypt has completed a feasibility study for a nuclear co-generation plant
(electricity and water) at El-Dabaa.
3
● India is building a demonstration plant at Kalpakkam using a 6300 m /d
hybrid desalination system (MSF-RO) connected to an existing PHWR.
Civil engineering and electrical work is completed, and India expects to
commission the plant in early 2004.
● The Republic of Korea is proceeding with its SMART (System-integrated
Modular Advanced Reactor) concept. The basic design was completed in
2002, and a six-year project for the construction of a one-fifth scale pilot
plant SMART-P was started to verify the integral performance of the
SMART system and nuclear desalination. The project is designed to
produce 40 000 m3/d of potable water.
● Morocco, in June 2000, halted a demonstration project at Tan-Tan
originally intended to produce 8000 m3/d of potable water using an NHR-
10 of Chinese design. Possible next steps are being studied.
● Pakistan is considering coupling a MED thermal desalination plant of
4800 m3/d capacity with the existing PHWR at KANUPP.
● In Russia, design work continues for a floating nuclear heat and power
plant based on marine reactor technologies. Construction of the first
plant is scheduled to begin in 2005 or 2006 in the northern European part
of Russia. Plans call for a floating unit with two KLT-40S reactors to be
used as the power source for nuclear desalination facilities. Manufac-
turing of major components started in 2000.
● Tunisia has undertaken several studies to select a suitable desalination
process and to identify what process could be coupled to a nuclear
reactor. Two possible desalination sites have been identified in the
southeast part of the country for further study.
● The USA will include in its Generation IV roadmap initiative a detailed
discussion of potential nuclear energy products in recognition of the
important role that future nuclear energy systems can play in producing
freshwater.
● Further R&D activities are also underway in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.
In addition, interest has been expressed by Brazil, Iran, Iraq, Italy,
Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Philippines and Syria in the potential for nuclear
desalination in their countries or regions.

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D. Economics

The worldwide use of desalination is still negligible compared to the

demand for freshwater. To become a noticeable (and quantifiable) market for
nuclear energy, desalination needs to compete successfully with alternative
means of increasing freshwater supply. For nuclear desalination to be attractive
in any given country, two factors must be in place simultaneously: a lack of
water and the ability to use nuclear energy for desalination. In most regions,
only one of the two is present. Both are present, for example, in China, India,
the Republic of Korea and Pakistan. These regions already account for almost
half the world’s population, and thus represent a potential long-term market
for nuclear desalination. The market will expand further to the extent that
regions with high projected water needs, such as the Middle East and
North Africa, increase their nuclear expertise and capabilities.

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REFERENCES

[1] Gowin et al. (1999), Nuclear Seawater Desalination - IAEA Activities and
Economic Evaluation, IDA World Congress, San Diego, USA; Desalination
Economic Evaluation Program (DEEP) – User’s Manual Series No. 14, 2000.
[2] Helmer (1997), Water Demand and Supply, International Symposium on Seawater
Desalination with Nuclear Energy, Taejon, Republic of Korea
[3] IAEA (1990), Use of Nuclear Reactors for Seawater Desalination, IAEA-
TECDOC-574, 1990.
[4] IAEA (1992), Technical and Economic Evaluation of Potable Water Production
through Desalination of Seawater by Using Nuclear Energy and Other Means,
IAEA-TECDOC-666, 1992.
[5] IAEA (1996a), Options Identification Programme for Demonstration of Nuclear
Desalination, IAEA-TECDOC-898, 1996.
[6] IAEA (1996b), Potential for Nuclear Desalination as a Source of Low Cost
Potable Water in North Africa, IAEA-TECDOC-917, 1996.
[7] IAEA (1997a), Methodology for the Economic Evaluation of Cogeneration/
Desalination Options: A User’s Manual, IAEA Computer Manual Series No. 12,
1997.
[8] IAEA (1997b), Thermodynamic and Economic Evaluation of Co-production
Plants for Electricity and Potable Water, IAEA-TECDOC-942, 1997.
[9] IAEA (1998), Nuclear heat applications: Design aspects and operating experi-
ence, IAEA-TECDOC-1056, 1998.
[10] IAEA (2000), Introduction of nuclear desalination: a Guidebook, IAEA-
Technical Report Series No. 400, 2000.
[11] IAEA (2002), Design concepts of nuclear desalination plants, IAEA TECDOC-
1326, 2002.
[12] Wangnick, K. (2002), IDA Worldwide Desalting Plants Inventory Report No.17,
Wangnick Consulting GmbH and the International Desalination Association
(IDA), Vienna, July, 2002.
[13] World Water Council (2000), The World Water Vision, the Second World Water
Forum, The Hague, The Netherlands.
[14] World Water Forum (2000), “World Water Vision Commission Report: A Water
Secure World,” World Water Forum, The Hague, Netherlands, 17-22 March 2000.
[15] World Water Forum (2000), “World Water Vision, Making Water Everybody’s
Business,” World Water Forum, The Hague, Netherlands, 17–22 March 2000.

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ANNEX VIII: THE SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR

APPLICATIONS: A PERSPECTIVE

A. Abstract

The mandate of the International Atomic Energy Agency is to

“accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and
prosperity throughout the world” and in so doing it does more than simply
facilitate progress in nuclear sciences. However, the potential contribution of
even the most novel or sophisticated nuclear technique should be compared
and judged against its conventional, non-nuclear competitors. Cost, reliability,
safety, simplicity and sustainability are important elements for the basis of
decisions by governments, private companies, universities, and citizens/
consumers. Reliable information is needed to assist in making choices that in
the nuclear area are often shaped by perceptions and misperceptions about
risk.
Assessments of the benefits created by the peaceful uses of the atom are
needed as well as a clear understanding of risks to better understand the
present impact of nuclear applications and to assist in making the best use of
established and emerging nuclear applications. Different approaches are being
developed to quantify the nuclear activities discussed. These assessments can,
even at the present stage, provide valuable insights for the development of
realistic visions and efficient planning and implementation schemes.

B. Introduction

The IAEA has an extensive and varied programme to enhance existing

nuclear techniques, or to assist in developing new ones, and to transfer those
providing tangible benefits to its developing Member States. ‘Atomic energy’
makes important contributions in many areas, which affect the every day lives
of billions of people around the globe. Nuclear techniques make our food safer
and more abundant, help prevent, diagnose, and cure disease, optimize
sustainable water use, and protect the environment. Nuclear techniques have
made significant contributions and have the potential to contribute much more
in key areas of concern to the international community as identified in the
Agenda 21 Action Plan, the Millennium Declaration, and the World Summit
on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg 2002, particularly the
WEHAB issues of Water, Energy, Health, Agriculture and Bio-diversity.

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It is important to understand the ways in which the contributions of

nuclear techniques have been made and to be able to quantify them. They
could be evaluated solely in terms of their economic impact, but consideration
also needs to be given to their overall impact, taking into account environ-
mental and other considerations. Indeed, a healthy and sustainable
environment was identified as a pre-requisite for success in achieving WSSD
goals.
The Agency’s activities need to be assessed in terms of how they
contribute to human welfare, both social and economic, and importantly, their
likely impact on future generations should be understood in terms of society’s
resources, i.e. its institutions, its public knowledge, human capital, manufac-
tured capital and natural capital. In an increasingly globalized world, national
or regional contributions may also benefit a global community and not just a
single society. In comparing with other options for socio-economic devel-
opment, the sustainability of newly introduced processes needs special consid-
eration.

C. Assessing the Impact of Nuclear Techniques

Nuclear techniques are used everywhere to measure, manage, and affect

daily lives. Precise, isotopic measurements are used to understand human
beings and their environment, for example, human energy requirements,
pollution monitoring or global climate change. Radiation measurements
improve industrial quality control and help diagnose disease. Radiation itself
cures cancers, creates new plant varieties, and eliminates insect pests. In the
power sector, nuclear fission produces about 16% of the world’s electricity. The
total impact of all contributions is large, but needs better assessment
techniques to determine the precise values of the nuclear contribution.
For some activities the nuclear contribution is self evident and dominant.
Nuclear energy production, for example, includes nuclear fuel cycle activities
performed by professionals with nuclear expertise, regulated by nuclear
authorities, and relying on a highly specialized industrial and knowledge pool.
The totality of impacts is far-reaching, affecting for example, education,
employment, energy supplies, local and national economies, environments and
global climate.
Diagnostic radiology, nuclear medicine, and radiation therapy services
also depend on a specialized infrastructure and knowledge pool. Doctors and
technicians perform billions of procedures per year worldwide that depend on
a stable supply of isotopes or the safe use of radiopharmaceuticals and
radiation. Their total ‘market value’ is very large, but other aspects of their

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impacts are difficult to quantify, such as the evaluation of the contribution of a

nuclear diagnostic procedure that is a prerequisite to a surgical procedure that
leads to the prolongation of a patient’s life as a person, or as a parent, a wage
earner or a retiree.
In other cases, a key nuclear step may make only a small contribution in
cost terms to a discrete end product. In Japan, for example the production of
almost all radial tyres with a market value of $9 billion/year involves radiation
treatment to optimize cross-linking of rubber molecules.
A third group of nuclear applications in plant breeding, food security, pest
control, and water management plays an important role in national and
regional enterprises providing the essentials of life – adequate supplies of safe
food and water. The nuclear contribution may be small, but it is often unique
and may be indispensable. The impacts can be enormous and returns on
investment large, even if they are difficult to measure. The successful intro-
duction of a hardier plant variety may profoundly change large agricultural
systems. The control/eradication of an insect pest can free farmers in least
developed countries from crippling constraints or empower them to overcome
sanitary barriers to international trade. Changes in national economies can be
significant.
The following examples from the fields of energy, agriculture, health,
water, and industry exemplify specific aspects and develop some elements that
can be used to quantify the impact of nuclear and isotopic technologies and
techniques.

D. Energy

In 2003, 439 nuclear power plants in 30 countries produced about 16% of

the world’s electricity. The nuclear share of electricity produced exceeds 75%
in France, 30% in Japan, and 20% in the United States, and thus the socio-
economic impact of nuclear power production varies from country to country.
At an economic level, the impact can be assessed by looking at the market
value of the produced electricity. For Japan and the United States, this is
estimated for 1997 at $47 billion and $39 billion respectively, over ½% of GDP
in both countries22. In France, where the fraction of electricity produced by
nuclear is considerably higher, this figure is about 1.5%. (These estimates are
based on retail prices of electricity. Subtracting the transmission and distri-

22
Tamikazu Kume, Etsuo Amano, Tomoko M. Nakanishi, and Mitsuo Chino,
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, Vol. 39, No. 10, pp. 1106-1113, October 2002

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bution costs – non-nuclear components – would reduce the nuclear contri-

bution by about twofold.) Societal and environmental factors also have to be
taken into account. Many are indirect and include value judgments and
perception. Not all are included in electricity market prices from different fuels.
In looking at alternatives, some factors are easily quantifiable, e.g., emissions of
greenhouse gases or particulates, but not their assessment for impact on health
and climate. For nuclear, the costs of decommissioning nuclear plants or the
costs of long-term storage of nuclear waste can be estimated, but potential costs
from accidents are difficult to factor into the equations. Funds for decommis-
sioning and waste disposal are sometimes included in the cost of nuclear
production, but the cost of non-sustainable fossil fuel burning, operated on the
‘dilute and disperse’ principle, remains unaccounted for. Therefore,
comparative exercises are complex in nature and prone to disagreements
(Helsinki 199123). However, of all areas of nuclear application, nuclear energy
production has been assessed in most detail, and the social or economic
benefits quantified from the various perspectives taken by the researchers.
Lessons learned from the analysis techniques can be used or modified for other
fields of nuclear applications.

E. Food and Agriculture

Major nuclear applications in food and agriculture are crop mutation

breeding, pest control and food irradiation. Research in this area also relies
heavily on nuclear techniques, e.g. for soil erosion, the water cycle, analyses of
residues and environmental impact assessment.
For centuries, farmers and plant breeders have sought to improve plant
varieties. Since the 1950s, there has been a concerted effort by international
agricultural research centres and national agricultural research systems to
improve agriculture in developing countries through the development of new
crop varieties with higher yield or increased resistance to environmental
stresses such as drought, salinity or pests. Thousands of new varieties have been
released and results have been impressive. Evenson and Gollin24 estimate that
today, “in the absence of international research … caloric intake per capita in
the developing world would have been 13.3% to 14.4% lower, and the

23
Chadwick M.J. et al., Comparative Environmental and Health Effects of
Different Energy Systems for Electricity Generation. Key Issues Paper 3, Senior Expert
Symposium on Electricity and the Environment. Helsinki, 91-141, 1991
24
R.E. Evenson and D. Gollin, Science, Vol. 300, No. 5620, pp. 758-762, 2 May
2003.

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proportion of children malnourished would have been from 6.1% to 7.9%

higher.” They conclude that “virtually all consumers in the world have
benefited from lower food prices”. Overall, they demonstrate that returns to
consumers from the investments made in international agricultural research
have been large. At the same time, cheaper products from more efficient
competitors often hurt small farmers, and higher yield plants have led to
increased use of fertilizers to maximize their potential. Concerns have also
arisen about the sustainability of intensive agriculture and the environmental
consequences of soil degradation, chemical pollution, soil salinity, and biodi-
versity.
One major method used in the Green Revolution is irradiation-induced
mutation breeding followed by selection for desired traits. Although the role of
this method in achieving global results has not been estimated, it is clear that it
is large. For example, the percentage of rice areas devoted to varieties
produced with the help of irradiation in 1998 was at least 28% in Thailand, 19%
in Laos, and 14% in Vietnam.25 Kume et al.26 estimate that in Japan, plant
varieties produced via radiation-induced mutations command a market share
of $804 million annually. In Pakistan, 25% of the area under cotton is planted
to a gamma ray induced, high yielding mutant cultivar. It is estimated that this
cultivar has contributed more than $3 billion in cotton production and saved
the textile industry of Pakistan when it was threatened by reduction in cotton
production from insect pests.
Area wide pest control using the sterile insect technique (SIT) is well
established for eradication and control of the Mediterranean fruit fly to protect
citrus orchards and vineyards, and for the screwworm to protect cattle.
Economic benefits per year for the United States from SIT are estimated at
$1.5 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively, from the control of these insects.
Protection of the environment from insecticides and preservation of biodi-
versity are additional benefits of this species-specific technology. The extension
of SIT to the Tsetse fly, threatening both animal and human health and one of
the major obstacles to African rural development, is under way with consid-
erable Agency support and has already resulted in Zanzibar being free of this
pest. As a result of this effort, farmers in Zanzibar can now take better

25
M. Hossain, D. Gollin, V. Canabilla, E. Cabrera, N. Johnson, G.S. Khush, and G.
Mclaren, International Research and Genetic Improvement in Rice: Evidence from
Asia and Latin America, in R. E. Evenson and D. Gollin (eds) (2003) Crop Variety
Improvement and Its Effect on Productivity, CABI Publishing, Wallingford UK.
26
Tamikazu Kume, Etsuo Amano, Tomoko M. Nakanishi, and Mitsuo Chino,
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, Vol. 39, No. 10, pp 1106-1113 (October
2002).

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advantage of varieties of cattle with high yields of milk and meat. The number
of farmers who do so has risen significantly since 1999, as has milk production
and farm output. The Agency has recently initiated a research and
development program at its Seibersdorf laboratories to develop SIT for the
control of malaria through area-wide suppression of mosquitoes. Considerable
progress in rearing methods and gender selection are needed before field trials
planned for the northern state of Sudan and French Reunion Island can be
initiated.
Food irradiation has the potential to replace chemical fumigation to
prevent spreading of pests in international trade and is increasingly used to
secure the microbiological safety of foods such as ground meat or spices. In the
United States, for example, 5% of ground beef is irradiated from a total market
of 4 billion kg. Food irradiation has been declared safe by the FAO/
WHO Codex Alimentarius, but public acceptance varies considerably from
country to country.

F. Health

Nuclear applications in medicine serve many aspects of modern health

care, contributing significantly to prevention, diagnosis and cure. Radioactive
tags in biomedical research are central to progress in genomics and proteomics.
From the visualization of the bones in Ms. Roentgen’s hands to modern
radiology in dentistry and orthopaedics, X-rays have provided a cheap and
non-invasive means to image fractures, to understand pathological processes,
and to guide efficient treatment. Present day applications range from relatively
inexpensive dental X-ray machines to sites with their own accelerators to

1000000000
100000000 Medical x-rays

10000000 Dental x-rays

1000000 nuclear medicine
100000 (diagnosis)
10000 teletherapy
1000
brachytherapy
100
nuclear medicine
10
(therapy)
1
I II III IV

FIG. VIII.1. Rates of nuclear medicine procedures (relative) from most developed
(category I) to least developed countries (category IV) - UNSCEAR 2000.

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produce radioisotopes for positron emission tomography (PET) scans.

Hardware investments can range from a few tens of thousands of dollars for an
X-ray unit to millions of dollars or more for sophisticated nuclear imaging
systems.
As can be seen in the previous chart, a strong gradient exists between
advanced countries and least developed Member States where the potential of
nuclear in medicine is practically untapped.
The Agency is working to help realize this potential, especially in treating
cancer, whose dramatic rise across the developing world is straining already
limited resources and equipment. Some 5000 radiotherapy machines are
needed to help patients fight cancer, but the entire developing world has only
about 2200 such machines. Experts predict a long term crisis in managing
cancer, with an estimated five million new patients requiring radiation therapy
every year. Providing essential equipment and training of staff to safely treat
cancer patients in the developing world is of increasing importance, with socio-
economic benefits potentially far outweighing costs of investments.

G. Water

Today there are more than one billion people who lack access to a steady
supply of clean water. The Millennium Declaration resolved by 2015 to “halve
the proportion of people who are unable to reach or afford safe drinking
water” and to stop the unsustainable exploitation of groundwater. This
translates into more than 300 000 additional people being provided with this
basic human need every day from now to 2015. Nuclear techniques in isotope
hydrology play an important role in addressing this problem. Water samples
have specific isotopic fingerprints that can tell age, origin and climatic
conditions, and nuclear techniques have become a basic tool to understand and
manage water resources in a sustainable way. Water supplies are already scarce
and will become more precious due to increasing demand from development.
Agriculture is by far the biggest consumer, consuming 70% of all water
withdrawals from rivers, lakes, and aquifers.27 In Bangladesh, isotope studies
have led to a new understanding of the water resources available and also
contributed as well to the understanding of how arsenic enters the water table.
At a cost of about $50 000, these studies have helped shape how a much larger
investment in excess of $50 million is to be spent. They will have a large impact

27
Water for People, Water for Life, UN World Water Development Report (2003),
p. 193.

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because tens of millions of people have been poisoned by arsenic in the present
ground water supply system and need to find a sustainable alternative. Other
methods could have been used, although they could not have provided as good
an understanding of complex water systems. The value added from the isotope
studies is complex because the outcomes in the field have yet to be realized, but
it is certain that nuclear techniques have improved understanding of the
region’s hydrology and so provided value to the people of Bangladesh.

H. Industry

A broad and diverse array of nuclear applications is routinely used in

industry. They include physical measurement gauges, humidity/density meters,
oil well logging tools, smoke detectors, radiation processing (for example steri-
lization of medical supplies and curing of plastic and rubber), and use of
radioactive tracers to check performance and optimize processes in a wide
range of industrial plants.28
Although the initial nuclear inputs may have a relatively low dollar value,
they often contribute in a unique fashion to much larger social or industrial
enterprises. For example, radiotracer studies for a major oil company revealed
that the mean residence time of water and oil in a separator column was a
quarter of the design value. Subsequent modifications led to a daily increase of
$600 000 per day in production.29

I. Frameworks

In viewing these snapshots, it is important to keep in mind the importance

of the national and international frameworks within which they take place.
Nuclear safety, radiation protection, food standards, etc., and the establishment
and implementation of legal frameworks to control them, both national and
international as appropriate, are essential and a prerequisite for sustainable
nuclear applications.
It should also be noted that many nuclear applications with socio-
economic benefits do not involve ionizing radiation, and because they pose no
risks, are outside of nuclear or radiological regulatory controls. Stable isotopes

28
See Beneficial Uses and Production of Isotopes, NEA, 1998, and its 2000
Update.
29
IAEA’s Nuclear Technology Review 2002.

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in water resources and nutrition, as well as biomedical tests and improved crop
varieties are important examples. Cost benefit analyses in these areas need to
recognize that different, non-nuclear infrastructures are required to apply such
sophisticated techniques on an area-wide basis and, if necessary, to conform to
the specialized international requirements, for example, in food distribution.
As public awareness grows of the potential national, regional and global
impacts of nuclear and non-nuclear methods for the production and distri-
bution of food and energy, increasing attention to the socio-economic benefit
aspects will need to be paid to those particular areas where nuclear sciences
and applications can provide cost effective and low-risk alternatives.

J. Perspectives

Nuclear sciences and applications are recognized as some of the core

disciplines on the road to technologically advanced societies. All countries, to a
greater or lesser extent, take advantage of nuclear applications, especially in
health care. While utilization increases dramatically with countries’ social,
technological, and economic development, significant socio-economic benefits
can be obtained at all levels of development, but to realize these benefits the
contributions of nuclear science and applications need to be properly
embedded into major economic activities such as agriculture, health, water
resource management, industrial applications and energy. Accurate
assessments of their costs, benefits, and risks are needed for decision makers to
have correct and reliable tools for sustainable development. Currently, major
benefits have accrued and remain available to both developed and developing
countries, and it has also been shown that investments in the requisite
technical, scientific, and regulatory infrastructure can be rewarded relatively
quickly, but recognizing that some aspects may need some years to mature. All
applications combined may amount to several percent or more of GNP in
highly developed countries, but may be practically non-existent in least
developed countries. However, the experiences of the larger economies
demonstrate that there remains a large, untapped potential for nuclear sciences
and applications to contribute significantly to meeting basic human needs
around the world.
The transfer by the Agency of human, regulatory, technical, and scientific
nuclear capabilities are important activities for socio-economic development,
but need to be put into context in terms of ‘value added’ or of comparative
cost-effectiveness with non-nuclear techniques. Assessment techniques need to
be adapted to the relevant nuclear or isotopic application and studies need to
define realistic boundary conditions for socio-economic impact assessments to

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be meaningful. The challenges of correctly assessing the impact of nuclear

sciences and applications are large, but the results could provide clear justifica-
tions to decision makers on economic and social grounds for making the
nuclear option the preferred choice.

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NUCLEAR

NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2004

T ECHNOLOGY
REVIEW
2004

International Atomic Energy Agency

www.iaea.org
International Atomic Energy Agency
P.O. Box 100, Wagramer Strasse 5
A-1400 Vienna, Austria
Telephone: (+43-1) 2600-0
Fax : (+43-1) 26007
E-Mail: [email protected]