Name: Mahima Sharma Roll No: 19-S-124

Comparision Table
MAD MAPE TS Range
Moving Average 10.875 11.076008973 1 5.37931034483
Simple Exponential Smoothening 10.208874561 9.8407006517 -4 1.83659581583

Moving Average
Week Demand Level Forecast Error Absolute Error
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124 116.5
5 96 113.5 116.5 20.5 20.5
6 119 114.25 113.5 -5.5 5.5
7 96 108.75 114.25 18.25 18.25
8 102 103.25 108.75 6.75 6.75
9 112 107.25 103.25 -8.75 8.75
10 102 103 107.25 5.25 5.25
11 92 102 103 11 11
12 91 99.25 102 11 11
13 99.25
14 99.25
15 99.25
16 99.25
Standard Deviation We use Simple Exponential Smoothing since the standard deviation of forecast error rel
13.59375
12.7610932017934

MSE t MAD t % Error MAPE t TS t

420.25 20.5 21.354166667 21.354166667 1

225.25 13 4.6218487395 12.988007703 1.1538461538
261.1875 14.75 19.010416667 14.995477358 2.2542372881
207.28125 12.75 6.6176470588 12.901019783 3.137254902
181.1375 11.95 7.8125 11.883315826 2.6150627615
155.541666666667 10.833333333 5.1470588235 10.760606326 3.3692307692
150.607142857143 10.857142857 11.956521739 10.931451385 4.375
146.90625 10.875 12.087912088 11.076008973 5.3793103448
e the standard deviation of forecast error relative to demand forecast is much smaller than with other methods

Simple Exponential Smoothening

Alpha 0.1
Week Demand Level Forecast Error Abs Error t
0 106.33333333
1 108 106.5 106.33333333 -1.6666666667 1.6666666667
2 116 107.45 106.5 -9.5 9.5
3 118 108.505 107.45 -10.55 10.55
4 124 110.0545 108.505 -15.495 15.495
5 96 108.64905 110.0545 14.0545 14.0545
6 119 109.684145 108.64905 -10.35095 10.35095
7 96 108.3157305 109.684145 13.684145 13.684145
8 102 107.68415745 108.3157305 6.3157305 6.3157305
9 112 108.11574171 107.68415745 -4.31584255 4.31584255
10 102 107.50416753 108.11574171 6.115741705 6.115741705
11 92 105.95375078 107.50416753 15.504167535 15.504167535
12 91 104.4583757 105.95375078 14.953750781 14.953750781
13 104.4583757
14 104.4583757
15 104.4583757
16 104.4583757
MSE t MAD t %Error MAPE t TS t

2.7777777778 1.6666666667 1.5432098765 1.5432098765 -1

46.513888889 5.5833333333 8.1896551724 4.8664325245 -2
68.110092593 7.2388888889 8.9406779661 6.2245143384 -3
111.10632569 9.3029166667 12.495967742 7.7923776892 -4
128.39085461 10.253233333 14.640104167 9.1619229847 -2.2585233276
124.84940649 10.269519444 8.6982773109 9.0846487058 -3.2628709501
133.76460904 10.757323095 14.254317708 9.823172849 -1.8428350149
122.03008938 10.202124021 6.1918926471 9.3692628237 -1.3240616502
110.54080133 9.5480927463 3.8534308482 8.7563926042 -1.8667690177
103.22695086 9.2048576422 5.995825201 8.4803358639 -1.2719742626
115.69533814 9.7775221778 16.852356016 9.241428605 0.3882195769
124.68861516 10.208874561 16.432693166 9.8407006517 1.8365958158
Comparision Table

Method MAD MAPE Standard deviation

Simple Exp 16.2305 12.4609 20.2881300168567 We use Holts Model since the standard deviation of forecast
Holts 8.089735 6.081809 10.1121688348622 along with a lower MAPE

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Alpha 0.1
Year Quarter Period Demand Level Forecast Error Abs Error % error
0 132.5625
1I 1 98 129.1063 132.5625 34.5625 34.5625 35.26786
II 2 106 126.7956 129.1063 23.10625 23.10625 21.79835
III 3 109 125.0161 126.7956 17.79563 17.79563 16.32626
IV 4 133 125.8145 125.0161 -7.983937 7.983937 6.002961
2I 5 130 126.233 125.8145 -4.185544 4.185544 3.219649
II 6 116 125.2097 126.233 10.23301 10.23301 8.821561
III 7 133 125.9887 125.2097 -7.79029 7.79029 5.857361
IV 8 116 124.9899 125.9887 9.988739 9.988739 8.610982
3I 9 138 126.2909 124.9899 -13.01014 13.01014 9.427634
II 10 130 126.6618 126.2909 -3.709122 3.709122 2.853171
III 11 147 128.6956 126.6618 -20.33821 20.33821 13.83552
IV 12 141 129.9261 128.6956 -12.30439 12.30439 8.726517
4I 13 144 131.3334 129.9261 -14.07395 14.07395 9.773576
II 14 142 132.4001 131.3334 -10.66655 10.66655 7.511658
III 15 165 135.6601 132.4001 -32.5999 32.5999 19.75751
IV 16 173 139.3941 135.6601 -37.33991 37.33991 21.58376
5I 17 139.3941
II 18 139.3941
III 19 139.3941
IV 20 139.3941
standard deviation of forecast error relative to demand forecast is much smaller than with other methods

Holts Method
Alpha 0.1 Beta 0.1
Year Quarter Period Demand Level Trend Forecast Error Abs error
0 100.075 3.822059
1I 1 98 103.3074 3.763088 103.8971 5.897059 5.897059
II 2 106 106.9634 3.752384 107.0704 1.070441 1.070441
III 3 109 110.5442 3.735226 110.7158 1.715781 1.715781
IV 4 133 116.1515 3.922432 114.2794 -18.72057 18.72057
2I 5 130 121.0665 4.021693 120.0739 -9.926082 9.926082
II 6 116 124.1794 3.93081 125.0882 9.088218 9.088218
III 7 133 128.5992 3.979708 128.1102 -4.889793 4.889793
IV 8 116 130.921 3.813919 132.5789 16.57889 16.57889
3I 9 138 135.0614 3.84657 134.7349 -3.265076 3.265076
II 10 130 138.0172 3.75749 138.908 8.908002 8.908002
III 11 147 142.2972 3.809743 141.7747 -5.225308 5.225308
IV 12 141 145.5963 3.758674 146.107 5.106966 5.106966
4I 13 144 148.8194 3.705124 149.3549 5.354943 5.354943
II 14 142 151.4721 3.599878 152.5246 10.52457 10.52457
III 15 165 156.0648 3.699158 155.072 -9.928006 9.928006
IV 16 173 161.0876 3.831519 159.764 -13.23605 13.23605
5I 17 164.9191
II 18 168.7506
III 19 172.5821
IV 20 176.4136
% Error SUMMARY OUTPUT

6.017407 Regression Statistics

1.00985 Multiple R 0.892597
1.574111 R Square 0.79673
14.07562 Adjusted R 0.782211
7.635448 Standard E 9.513795
7.834671 Observatio 16
3.676536
14.29215 ANOVA
2.365997 df SS MS F Significance F
6.852309 Regression 1 4966.765 4966.765 54.87393 3.313E-06
3.554631 Residual 14 1267.172 90.51229
3.621962 Total 15 6233.938
3.71871
7.411671 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
6.016973 Intercept 100.075 4.989076 20.05882 1.033E-11 89.3745 110.7755 89.3745
7.650894 X Variable 3.822059 0.515958 7.407694 3.313E-06 2.715439 4.928679 2.715439
Upper 95.0%
110.7755
4.928679
 Comparision Table

Forecasting Method MAD MAPE(%) Standard Deviation

Moving Average 4488 78.46349 5609.809

Simple Exponential 4339 80.09634 5424.172
Holts 4411 83% 5513.638
Winter 1283 24% 1603.302

We use Winters model since the standard deviation of forecast error relative to demand forecast is much smaller than wit
Also, since our data shows both trend and seasonality, Winter Model is better suited than other models
Moving Average Method n 12

Period Year Month Sales Level Forecast Error Abs Error Squared error
1 1 January 2,000
2 February 3,000
3 March 3,000
4 April 3,000
5 May 4,000
6 June 6,000
7 July 7,000
8 August 6,000
9 September 10,000
10 October 12,000
11 November 14,000
12 December 8,000 6,500
13 2 January 3,000 6,583 6,500 3500 3500 43340277.78
14 February 4,000 6,667 6,583 2583 2583 43892361.11
15 March 3,000 6,667 6,667 3667 3667 44076388.89
16 April 5,000 6,833 6,667 1667 1667 44730902.78
17 May 5,000 6,917 6,833 1833 1833 45352777.78
18 June 8,000 7,083 6,917 -1083 1083 46156250.00
19 July 3,000 6,750 7,083 4083 4083 46071428.57
20 August 8,000 6,917 6,750 -1250 1250 46292534.72
21 September 12,000 7,083 6,917 -5083 5083 46723765.43
22 October 12,000 7,083 7,083 -4917 4917 47068750.00
23 November 16,000 7,250 7,083 -8917 8917 47568181.82
24 December 10,000 7,417 7,250 -2750 2750 48188078.70
25 3 January 2,000 7,333 7,417 5417 5417 48618055.56
26 February 5,000 7,417 7,333 2333 2333 49074404.76
27 March 5,000 7,583 7,417 2417 2417 49636574.07
28 April 3,000 7,417 7,583 4583 4583 49972222.22
29 May 4,000 7,333 7,417 3417 3417 50196078.43
30 June 6,000 7,167 7,333 1333 1333 50260802.47
31 July 7,000 7,500 7,167 167 167 50576023.39
32 August 10,000 7,667 7,500 -2500 2500 50986111.11
33 September 15,000 7,917 7,667 -7333 7333 51542658.73
34 October 15,000 8,167 7,917 -7083 7083 52231376.26
35 November 18,000 8,333 8,167 -9833 9833 52979770.53
36 December 8,000 8,167 8,333 333 333 53551215.28
37 4 January 5,000 8,417 8,167 3167 3167 54242777.78
38 February 4,000 8,333 8,417 4417 4417 54827457.26
39 March 4,000 8,250 8,333 4333 4333 55317644.03
40 April 2,000 8,167 8,250 6250 6250 55723958.33
41 May 5,000 8,250 8,167 3167 3167 56149425.29
42 June 7,000 8,333 8,250 1250 1250 56592592.59
43 July 10,000 8,583 8,333 -1667 1667 57143593.19
44 August 14,000 8,917 8,583 -5417 5417 57842447.92
45 September 16,000 9,000 8,917 -7083 7083 58544191.92
46 October 16,000 9,083 9,000 -7000 7000 59248978.76
47 November 20,000 9,250 9,083 -10917 10917 60000793.65
48 December 12,000 9,583 9,250 -2750 2750 60885223.77
49 5 January 5,000 9,583 9,583 4583 4583 61721846.85
50 February 2,000 9,417 9,583 7583 7583 62431103.80
51 March 3,000 9,333 9,417 6417 6417 63063924.50
52 April 2,000 9,333 9,333 7333 7333 63665104.17
53 May 7,000 9,500 9,333 2333 2333 64313516.26
54 June 6,000 9,417 9,500 3500 3500 64893518.52
55 July 8,000 9,250 9,417 1417 1417 65374192.51
56 August 10,000 8,917 9,250 -750 750 65695391.41
57 September 20,000 9,250 8,917 -11083 11083 66136882.72
58 October 20,000 9,583 9,250 -10750 10750 66695652.17
59 November 22,000 9,750 9,583 -12417 12417 67299202.13
60 December 8,000 9,417 9,750 1750 1750 67744502.31
61 6 January 9,417
62 February 9,417
63 March 9,417
64 April 9,417
65 May 9,417
66 June 9,417
67 July 9,417
68 August 9,417
69 September 9,417
70 October 9,417
71 November 9,417
72 December 9,417
 Sales
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

orecast is much smaller than with other methods

other models
Simple Exponential Smootheinig
Alpha 0.1
MAD t %error MAPEt TS t Period Year Month Sales Level
0 8,217
1 1 January 2,000 7595
2 February 3,000 7135.5
3 March 3,000 6721.95
4 April 3,000 6349.755
5 May 4,000 6114.78
6 June 6,000 6103.302
7 July 7,000 6192.971
8 August 6,000 6173.674
9 September 10,000 6556.307
10 October 12,000 7100.676
11 November 14,000 7790.609
3500 116.6667 116.6667 1 12 December 8,000 7811.548
3041.667 64.58333 90.625 2 13 2 January 3,000 7330.393
3250 122.2222 101.1574 3 14 February 4,000 6997.354
2854.167 33.33333 84.20139 4 15 March 3,000 6597.618
2650 36.66667 74.69444 5 16 April 5,000 6437.856
2388.889 13.54167 64.50231 5.093023 17 May 5,000 6294.071
2630.952 136.1111 74.73214 6.176471 18 June 8,000 6464.664
2458.333 15.625 67.34375 6.101695 19 July 3,000 6118.197
2750 42.36111 64.5679 3.606061 20 August 8,000 6306.378
2966.667 40.97222 62.20833 1.685393 21 September 12,000 6875.74
3507.576 55.72917 61.61932 -1.116631 22 October 12,000 7388.166
3444.444 27.5 58.77604 -1.935484 23 November 16,000 8249.349
3596.154 270.8333 75.08814 -0.347594 24 December 10,000 8424.414
3505.952 46.66667 73.05804 0.308998 25 3 January 2,000 7781.973
3433.333 48.33333 71.40972 1.019417 26 February 5,000 7503.776
3505.208 152.7778 76.49523 2.306092 27 March 5,000 7253.398
3500 85.41667 77.02002 3.285714 28 April 3,000 6828.058
3379.63 22.22222 73.97569 3.79726 29 May 4,000 6545.252
3210.526 2.380952 70.20755 4.04918 30 June 6,000 6490.727
3175 25 67.94717 3.307087 31 July 7,000 6541.654
3373.016 48.88889 67.03964 0.938824 32 August 10,000 6887.489
3541.667 47.22222 66.13884 -1.105882 33 September 15,000 7698.74
3815.217 54.62963 65.63844 -3.603989 34 October 15,000 8428.866
3670.139 4.166667 63.07712 -3.655629 35 November 18,000 9385.979
3650 63.33333 63.08737 -2.808219 36 December 8,000 9247.382
3679.487 110.4167 64.90773 -1.585366 37 4 January 5,000 8822.643
3703.704 108.3333 66.51608 -0.405 38 February 4,000 8340.379
3794.643 312.5 75.30122 1.251765 39 March 4,000 7906.341
3772.989 63.33333 74.88854 2.098248 40 April 2,000 7315.707
3688.889 17.85714 72.98749 2.48494 41 May 5,000 7084.136
3623.656 16.66667 71.17069 2.069733 42 June 7,000 7075.723
3679.688 38.69048 70.15568 0.566171 43 July 10,000 7368.15
3782.828 44.27083 69.37129 -1.321762 44 August 14,000 8031.335
3877.451 43.75 68.61772 -3.094817 45 September 16,000 8828.202
4078.571 54.58333 68.21674 -5.618797 46 October 16,000 9545.382
4041.667 22.91667 66.95841 -6.350515 47 November 20,000 10590.84
4056.306 91.66667 67.6262 -5.197668 48 December 12,000 10731.76
4149.123 379.1667 75.82463 -3.2537 49 5 January 5,000 10158.58
4207.265 213.8889 79.36474 -1.683596 50 February 2,000 9342.725
4285.417 366.6667 86.54729 0.058337 51 March 3,000 8708.452
4237.805 33.33333 85.24939 0.609592 52 April 2,000 8037.607
4220.238 58.33333 84.60853 1.441467 53 May 7,000 7933.846
4155.039 17.70833 83.05271 1.805037 54 June 6,000 7740.462
4077.652 7.5 81.3356 1.655365 55 July 8,000 7766.416
4233.333 55.41667 80.75963 -1.023622 56 August 10,000 7989.774
4375 53.75 80.17246 -3.447619 57 September 20,000 9190.797
4546.099 56.43939 79.6675 -6.049142 58 October 20,000 10271.72
4487.847 21.875 78.46349 -5.737718 59 November 22,000 11444.55
60 December 8,000 11100.09
61 6 January
62 February
63 March
64 April
65 May
66 June
67 July
68 August
69 September
70 October
71 November
72 December
Sales

Forecast Error t Abs Error t MSE t MAD t % Error MAPE t TS t

8,217 6,217 6217 38646944.44 6217 310.8333 310.8333 1

7,595 4,595 4595 29880484.72 5406 153.1667 232 2
7,136 4,136 4136 25621109.90 4982 137.85 200.6167 3
6,722 3,722 3722 22679060.37 4667 124.065 181.4788 4
6,350 2,350 2350 19247518.01 4204 58.74388 156.9318 5
6,115 115 115 16041794.07 3522 1.912992 131.0953 6
6,103 -897 897 13864976.07 3147 12.80998 114.1974 6.43016
6,193 193 193 12136508.81 2778 3.21619 100.3248 7.354409
6,174 -3,826 3826 12414759.91 2894 38.26326 93.42903 5.736446
6,556 -5,444 5444 14136663.45 3149 45.36411 88.62254 3.543576
7,101 -6,899 6899 17178845.83 3490 49.28088 85.04603 1.220712
7,791 -209 209 15750929.08 3217 2.617393 78.17697 1.25937
7,812 4,812 4812 16320164.61 3340 160.3849 84.50066 2.653905
7,330 3,330 3330 15946689.78 3339 83.25982 84.41203 3.651888
6,997 3,997 3997 15948832.86 3383 133.2451 87.66757 4.786181
6,598 1,598 1598 15111554.81 3271 31.95237 84.18537 5.437815
6,438 1,438 1438 14344253.42 3163 28.75713 80.92488 6.077735
6,294 -1,706 1706 13709027.92 3082 21.32412 77.61373 5.683938
6,465 3,465 3465 13619284.06 3102 115.4888 79.60716 6.763811
6,118 -1,882 1882 13115378.92 3041 23.52253 76.80292 6.280827
6,306 -5,694 5694 14034519.73 3168 47.44685 75.40502 4.233052
6,876 -5,124 5124 14590134.39 3257 42.70217 73.91852 2.543999
7,388 -8,612 8612 17180288.86 3490 53.82396 73.04485 -0.093659
8,249 -1,751 1751 16592142.57 3417 17.50651 70.73075 -0.607971
8,424 6,424 6424 17579380.86 3537 321.2207 80.75035 1.228865
7,782 2,782 2782 17200919.03 3508 55.63946 79.78454 2.032009
7,504 2,504 2504 16796029.15 3471 50.07551 78.68421 2.775109
7,253 4,253 4253 16842292.22 3499 141.7799 80.93763 3.96854
6,828 2,828 2828 16537313.64 3476 70.70146 80.58466 4.808575
6,545 545 545 15995979.86 3378 9.08754 78.20142 5.109027
6,491 -509 509 15488346.92 3286 7.275326 75.91348 5.097934
6,542 -3,458 3458 15378090.89 3291 34.58346 74.62192 4.038746
6,887 -8,113 8113 16906416.45 3437 54.08341 73.99954 1.50684
7,699 -7,301 7301 17977062.90 3551 48.67507 73.2547 -0.597607
 8,429 -9,571 9571 20080764.08 3723 53.17297 72.68094 -3.140926
9,386 1,386 1386 19576324.50 3658 17.32474 71.14327 -2.817766
9,247 4,247 4247 19534808.97 3674 84.94763 71.51636 -1.649434
8,823 4,823 4823 19632784.77 3704 120.5661 72.80714 -0.33399
8,340 4,340 4340 19612428.50 3720 108.5095 73.72258 0.83412
7,906 5,906 5906 19994239.43 3775 295.3171 79.26245 2.386621
7,316 2,316 2316 19637367.72 3739 46.31414 78.45883 3.028602
7,084 84 84 19169979.89 3652 1.201948 76.61938 3.123805
7,076 -2,924 2924 18923036.12 3635 29.24277 75.5176 2.333984
7,368 -6,632 6632 19492545.04 3704 47.37035 74.87789 0.500411
8,031 -7,969 7969 20470479.95 3798 49.80415 74.32069 -1.609997
8,828 -7,172 7172 21143614.92 3872 44.82374 73.67945 -3.431866
9,545 -10,455 10455 23019262.36 4012 52.27309 73.224 -5.918042
10,591 -1,409 1409 22581063.60 3958 11.74297 71.94315 -6.355192
10,732 5,732 5732 22790696.24 3994 114.6352 72.81441 -4.862391
10,159 8,159 8159 23666131.92 4077 407.9292 79.51671 -2.761947
9,343 6,343 6343 23990916.77 4121 211.4242 82.10313 -1.193229
8,708 6,708 6708 24395001.72 4171 335.4226 86.97466 0.429274
8,038 1,038 1038 23955032.41 4112 14.82296 85.6133 0.687776
7,934 1,934 1934 23580675.56 4072 32.23077 84.62474 1.169532
7,740 -260 260 23153160.73 4002 3.244227 83.14509 1.12494
7,766 -2,234 2234 22828798.92 3971 22.33584 82.05921 0.571394
7,990 -12,010 12010 24958916.95 4112 60.05113 81.67311 -2.369051
9,191 -10,809 10809 26543054.19 4227 54.04602 81.19678 -4.861298
10,272 -11,728 11728 28424572.29 4355 53.31038 80.72413 -7.412736
11,445 3,445 3445 28148577.63 4339 43.05682 80.09634 -6.644848
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
11,100
Holts Model Find Lo by Running a regression b/w sales and period ,intercept =Lo, OR by using intercep
Lo 4800.565 To 112.0033 Alpha 0.1
Period Year Month Sales Level Trend Forecast Error t Abs Error t
0 4,801 112
1 1 January 2,000 4621.311 83 4,913 2913 2913
2 February 3,000 4533.77 66 4,704 1704 1704
3 March 3,000 4439.645 50 4,600 1600 1600
4 April 3,000 4340.537 35 4,489 1489 1489
5 May 4,000 4337.933 31 4,375 375 375
6 June 6,000 4532.211 47 4,369 -1631 1631
7 July 7,000 4821.739 72 4,580 -2420 2420
8 August 6,000 5004.096 83 4,893 -1107 1107
9 September 10,000 5578.177 132 5,087 -4913 4913
10 October 12,000 6339.068 195 5,710 -6290 6290
11 November 14,000 7280.48 269 6,534 -7466 7466
12 December 8,000 7594.945 274 7,550 -450 450
13 2 January 3,000 7382.014 225 7,869 4869 4869
14 February 4,000 7246.557 189 7,607 3607 3607
15 March 3,000 6992.179 145 7,436 4436 4436
16 April 5,000 6923.318 123 7,137 2137 2137
17 May 5,000 6842.109 103 7,047 2047 2047
18 June 8,000 7050.6 114 6,945 -1055 1055
19 July 3,000 6747.736 72 7,164 4164 4164
20 August 8,000 6937.681 84 6,820 -1180 1180
21 September 12,000 7519.255 133 7,021 -4979 4979
22 October 12,000 8087.479 177 7,653 -4347 4347
23 November 16,000 9038.006 254 8,264 -7736 7736
24 December 10,000 9363.1 261 9,292 -708 708
25 3 January 2,000 8862.053 185 9,625 7625 7625
26 February 5,000 8642.491 145 9,047 4047 4047
27 March 5,000 8408.46 107 8,787 3787 3787
28 April 3,000 7963.747 52 8,515 5515 5515
29 May 4,000 7613.869 12 8,015 4015 4015
30 June 6,000 7462.839 -5 7,625 1625 1625
31 July 7,000 7412.284 -9 7,458 458 458
32 August 10,000 7662.662 17 7,403 -2597 2597
33 September 15,000 8411.375 90 7,679 -7321 7321
34 October 15,000 9151.103 155 8,501 -6499 6499
35 November 18,000 10175.35 242 9,306 -8694 8694
36 December 8,000 10175.41 218 10,417 2417 2417
37 4 January 5,000 9853.72 164 10,393 5393 5393
38 February 4,000 9415.658 104 10,017 6017 6017
39 March 4,000 8967.245 48 9,519 5519 5519
40 April 2,000 8314.002 -22 9,016 7016 7016
41 May 5,000 7962.942 -55 8,292 3292 3292
42 June 7,000 7817.359 -64 7,908 908 908
43 July 10,000 7978.161 -41 7,754 -2246 2246
44 August 14,000 8543.101 19 7,937 -6063 6063
45 September 16,000 9306.116 94 8,562 -7438 7438
46 October 16,000 10059.77 160 9,400 -6600 6600
47 November 20,000 11197.46 257 10,219 -9781 9781
48 December 12,000 11509.4 263 11,455 -545 545
49 5 January 5,000 11095.06 195 11,772 6772 6772
50 February 2,000 10361.2 102 11,290 9290 9290
51 March 3,000 9717.117 28 10,463 7463 7463
52 April 2,000 8970.269 -50 9,745 7745 7745
53 May 7,000 8728.404 -69 8,920 1920 1920
54 June 6,000 8393.44 -96 8,659 2659 2659
55 July 8,000 8268.039 -99 8,298 298 298
56 August 10,000 8352.498 -80 8,169 -1831 1831
57 September 20,000 9444.985 37 8,272 -11728 11728
58 October 20,000 10533.77 142 9,482 -10518 10518
59 November 22,000 11808.35 255 10,676 -11324 11324
60 December 8,000 11657.38 215 12,064 4064 4064
61 6 January 11,872
62 February 12,087
63 March 12,302
64 April 12,516
65 May 12,731
66 June 12,946
67 July 13,161
68 August 13,376
69 September 13,590
70 October 13,805
71 November 14,020
72 December 14,235
=Lo, OR by using intercept formula and slope formula
Beta 0.1
MSE t MAD t % Error MAPE t TS t SUMMARY OUTPUT

8483054.14 2913 146% 146% 1 Regression Statistics

5693657.36 2308 57% 101% 2 Multiple R 0.362893
4648684.66 2072 53% 85% 3 R Square 0.131691
4041154.95 1926 50% 76% 4 Adjusted R 0.11672
3261121.22 1616 9% 63% 5 Standard E 5065.843
3160894.14 1619 27% 57% 3.984956 Observatio 60
3546167.08 1733 35% 54% 2.325254
3255955.44 1655 18% 49% 1.766654 ANOVA
5576283.47 2017 49% 49% -0.986426 df SS
8974969.46 2444 52% 50% -3.387373 Regression 1 2.26E+08
13226622.40 2901 53% 50% -5.42811 Residual 58 1.49E+09
12141283.45 2697 6% 46% -6.006117 Total 59 1.71E+09
13030895.10 2864 162% 55% -3.955378
13029581.63 2917 90% 58% -2.646597 Coefficients
Standard Error
13472670.80 3018 148% 64% -1.088034 Intercept 4800.565 1324.518
12916057.17 2963 43% 62% -0.387008 X Variable 112.0033 37.76381
12402720.89 2909 41% 61% 0.309413
11775502.51 2806 13% 58% -0.055162
12068379.07 2878 139% 63% 1.393334
11534621.90 2793 15% 60% 1.013011
12165664.25 2897 41% 59% -0.742068
12471704.23 2963 36% 58% -2.192882
14531139.78 3170 48% 58% -4.489414
13946541.99 3068 7% 56% -4.870267
15714002.48 3250 381% 69% -2.251022
15739614.91 3281 81% 69% -0.996279
15687877.85 3299 76% 70% 0.157256
16213962.80 3378 184% 74% 1.786057
16210843.88 3400 100% 75% 2.955378
15758544.07 3341 27% 73% 3.494171
15256973.28 3248 7% 71% 3.735246
14990962.54 3228 26% 69% 2.954232
16160708.09 3352 49% 69% 0.660891
16927571.54 3444 43% 68% -1.243592
18603545.13 3594 48% 67% -3.610438
18249071.71 3562 30% 66% -2.964955
18541926.14 3611 108% 68% -1.430925
19006851.02 3675 150% 70% 0.231311
19300550.78 3722 138% 71% 1.711272
20048488.09 3804 351% 78% 3.518388
19823849.46 3792 66% 78% 4.398225
19371490.79 3723 13% 77% 4.723264
19038356.27 3689 22% 75% 4.158219
19441181.03 3743 43% 75% 2.478246
20238457.33 3825 46% 74% 0.48046
20745521.12 3885 41% 73% -1.225849
22339449.92 4011 49% 73% -3.626213
21880235.15 3938 5% 71% -3.831097
22369698.08 3996 135% 73% -2.080974
23648469.69 4102 465% 80% 0.237492
24276995.56 4168 249% 84% 2.024394
24963612.12 4237 387% 90% 3.819506
24562187.79 4193 27% 88% 4.317321
24238300.85 4165 44% 88% 4.985319
23799217.15 4094 4% 86% 5.143664
23434069.40 4054 18% 85% 4.743406
25435948.10 4189 59% 84% 1.790995
26904792.52 4298 53% 84% -0.701843
28622242.10 4417 51% 83% -3.246782
28420439.64 4411 51% 83% -2.329818
 Winters Model
p

To determine Lo and To : Run a regressio

Lo
OR use intercept and slope formula
Lo

We have 60 periods and periodicity of 12 im

MS F Significance F Alpha 0.1

2.26E+08 8.796507 0.004377 Period Year
25662769 0
1 1
2
t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0% 3
3.624387 0.000611 2149.254 7451.875 2149.254 7451.875 4
2.965891 0.004377 36.41085 187.5958 36.41085 187.5958 5
6
7
8
9 September
10
11 November
12 December
13 2
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21 September
22
23 November
24 December
25 3
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33 September
34
35 November
36 December
37 4
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45 September
46
47 November
48 December
49 5
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57 September
58
59 November
60 December
61 6
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 September
70
71 November
72 December
Winters Model S1
12 S2
S3
o and To : Run a regression between deasonalized demand and period S4
13526.4 To 343.7952 S5
rcept and slope formula S6
13526.4 To 343.7952 S7
-> We determine seasonal factors as follows S8
S9
ods and periodicity of 12 imply there are r = 5 seasonal cycles in the data S10
S11
S12
Beta 0.1 Gamma 0.1
Month Sales
Deseasonalized Demand
Level Trend
DeseasonalizedSeasonal
DemandSEASONAL
Factor FACTOR
Forecast Error t
13526 343.7952
January 2,000 13,805 337 13870 0.14 0.151287 2098 98.38
February 3,000 14,458 369 14214 0.21 0.173455 2453 -546.91
March 3,000 15,149 401 14558 0.21 0.166191 2464 -535.95
April 3,000 16,048 451 14902 0.20 0.146137 2272 -727.55
May 4,000 16,680 469 15245 0.26 0.218447 3604 -395.87
June 6,000 17,462 500 15589 0.38 0.295924 5075 -925.19
July 7,000 11333.33 18,533 557 15933 0.44 0.295647 5310 -1689.61
August 6,000 13333.33 18,711 519 16277 0.37 0.392422 7492 1491.66
September 10,000 12416.67 19,008 497 16621 0.60 0.587755 11303 1302.60
October 12,000 14416.67 19,546 501 16964 0.71 0.602831 11759 -241.35
November 14,000 15500 19,995 496 17308 0.81 0.716808 14370 369.82
December 8,000 20416.67 20,599 507 17652 0.45 0.371019 7603 -397.29
January 3,000 16500 20,986 495 17996 0.17 0.15065 3179 179.41
February 4,000 20250 21,595 506 18340 0.22 0.17686 3799 -200.86
March 3,000 28083.33 21,662 462 18683 0.16 0.16938 3743 743.34
April 5,000 30083.33 23,240 574 19027 0.26 0.15022 3323 -1676.55
May 5,000 35916.67 23,700 562 19371 0.26 0.22058 5253 253.05
June 8,000 24583.33 24,496 586 19715 0.41 0.30069 7295 -704.58
July 3,000 12166.67 23,561 434 20059 0.15 0.30385 7621 4621.30
August 8,000 16000 23,672 402 20402 0.39 0.38525 9244 1244.08
September 12,000 15166.67 23,730 367 20746 0.58 0.58159 14001 2001.03
October 12,000 15166.67 23,674 325 21090 0.57 0.60394 14553 2553.12
November 16,000 16000 23,836 309 21434 0.75 0.71514 17163 1162.68
December 10,000 20666.67 24,413 335 21777 0.46 0.37275 9000 -999.86
January 2,000 16916.67 23,608 221 22121 0.09 0.14988 3709 1709.22
February 5,000 24833.33 24,260 264 22465 0.22 0.17770 4234 -765.56
March 5,000 33666.67 25,079 320 22809 0.22 0.16629 4078 -921.85
April 3,000 33916.67 24,774 257 23153 0.13 0.15671 3980 980.27
May 4,000 40833.33 24,349 189 23496 0.17 0.21962 5497 1497.33
June 6,000 25500 24,063 142 23840 0.25 0.30328 7442 1441.97
July 7,000 15000 24,230 144 24184 0.29 0.28620 6927 -72.73
August 10,000 17000 24,565 163 24528 0.41 0.38052 9275 -725.31
September 15,000 16916.67 24,868 177 24872 0.60 0.57400 14194 -806.32
October 15,000 13000 25,065 179 25215 0.59 0.59424 14883 -117.06
November 18,000 16833.33 25,252 180 25559 0.70 0.71075 17943 -57.47
December 8,000 20750 25,014 138 25903 0.31 0.37644 9574 1573.83
January 5,000 24750 26,125 235 26247 0.19 0.14336 3606 -1394.12
February 4,000 31750 25,940 193 26591 0.15 0.18054 4759 759.06
March 4,000 38666.67 25,879 168 26934 0.15 0.16959 4432 432.12
April 2,000 38750 24,748 38 27278 0.07 0.15315 3989 1989.01
May 5,000 45583.33 24,643 24 27622 0.18 0.21409 5306 306.39
June 7,000 28583.33 24,550 12 27966 0.25 0.29789 7348 347.90
July 10,000 19166.67 25,597 116 28310 0.35 0.28647 7036 -2963.75
August 14,000 15250 26,795 224 28653 0.49 0.38317 9852 -4147.79
September 16,000 16083.33 27,090 231 28997 0.55 0.57692 15587 -412.66
October 16,000 13166.67 27,279 227 29341 0.55 0.59466 16247 246.52
November 20,000 20916.67 27,569 233 29685 0.67 0.71096 19556 -444.28
December 12,000 21916.67 28,258 279 30029 0.40 0.37078 10308 -1691.74
January 5,000 26583.33 29,058 331 30372 0.16 0.14816 4228 -771.94
February 2,000 32083.33 27,574 149 30716 0.07 0.17790 5228 3228.30
March 3,000 43583.33 26,736 51 31060 0.10 0.16809 4660 1660.03
April 2,000 43916.67 25,478 -80 31404 0.06 0.14591 3908 1908.49
May 7,000 49916.67 26,145 -6 31748 0.22 0.21297 5409 -1591.04
June 6,000 28750 25,548 -65 32091 0.19 0.29661 7753 1753.27
July 8,000 25,630 -50 32435 0.25 0.29689 7566 -434.15
August 10,000 25,540 -54 32779 0.31 0.39711 10158 157.93
September 20,000 26,396 37 33123 0.60 0.57829 14738 -5261.70
October 20,000 27,158 109 33467 0.60 0.59384 15697 -4302.95
November 22,000 27,628 146 33810 0.65 0.71241 19425 -2574.76
December 8,000 27,123 81 34154 0.23 0.37617 10448 2447.65
January 0.15055 4096
February 0.16737 4566
March 0.16250 4447
April 0.13917 3820
May 0.21845 6013
June 0.29044 8018
July 0.29841 8262
August 0.39655 11011
September 0.59623 16604
October 0.60810 16983
November 0.72080 20189
December 0.36804 10338
 0.151287 SUMMARY OUTPUT
0.173455
0.166191 Regression Statistics
0.146137 Multiple R 0.466716
0.218447 R Square 0.217824
0.295924 Adjusted R 0.20082
0.295647 Standard E 9219.289
0.392422 Observatio 48
0.587755
0.602831 ANOVA
0.716808 df
0.371019 Regression 1
Residual 46
Absolute Error t MSE t MAD t % Error MAPE t TS t Total 47

98.38 9677.81 98.37588 5% 5% 1 Coefficients

546.91 154396.68 322.6452 18% 12% -1.390192 Intercept 13526.4
535.95 198679.56 393.7477 18% 14% -2.50031 X Variable 343.7952
727.55 281342.40 477.1986 24% 16% -3.587694
395.87 256416.00 460.9322 10% 15% -4.573144
925.19 356341.60 538.3079 15% 15% -5.6345
1689.61 713260.71 702.7793 24% 16% -6.720038
1491.66 902234.92 801.3896 25% 17% -4.031799
1302.60 990515.00 857.0792 13% 17% -2.250021
241.35 897288.40 795.5061 2% 15% -2.727565
369.82 828149.78 756.807 3% 14% -2.378386
397.29 772290.71 726.8474 5% 14% -3.023016
179.41 715359.84 684.7372 6% 13% -2.946907
200.86 667144.54 650.1747 5% 12% -3.412497
743.34 659504.71 656.3854 25% 13% -2.24774
1676.55 793962.51 720.1458 34% 14% -4.376803
253.05 751025.42 692.6693 5% 14% -4.185101
704.58 736881.26 693.3309 9% 14% -5.19733
4621.30 1822120.09 900.0662 154% 21% 1.13084
1244.08 1808400.77 917.2668 16% 21% 2.465924
2001.03 1912959.05 968.8747 17% 21% 4.399889
2553.12 2122298.11 1040.886 21% 21% 6.548327
1162.68 2088799.35 1046.181 7% 20% 7.626539
 999.86 2043420.87 1044.251 10% 20% 6.683147
1709.22 2078541.06 1070.85 85% 22% 8.113278
765.56 2021138.99 1059.108 15% 22% 7.480388
921.85 1977756.34 1054.024 18% 22% 6.641866
980.27 1941441.31 1051.39 33% 22% 7.590864
1497.33 1951805.48 1066.768 37% 23% 8.885058
1441.97 1956054.48 1079.274 24% 23% 10.11815
72.73 1893126.60 1046.805 1% 22% 10.36251
725.31 1850406.33 1036.759 7% 22% 9.763329
806.32 1814034.81 1029.776 5% 21% 9.046534
117.06 1761083.90 1002.931 1% 21% 9.171952
57.47 1710861.59 975.918 0% 20% 9.366937
1573.83 1732141.64 992.5267 20% 20% 10.79587
1394.12 1737855.63 1003.38 28% 20% 9.289674
759.06 1707285.12 996.9511 19% 20% 10.11097
432.12 1668296.49 982.4682 11% 20% 10.69985
1989.01 1725493.00 1007.632 99% 22% 12.40659
306.39 1685697.41 990.5282 6% 21% 12.93013
347.90 1648443.46 975.2275 5% 21% 13.48973
2963.75 1814382.29 1021.472 30% 21% 9.977564
4147.79 2164149.78 1092.525 30% 21% 5.532154
412.66 2119841.78 1077.417 3% 21% 5.226718
246.52 2075079.42 1059.354 2% 21% 5.548548
444.28 2035128.40 1046.267 2% 20% 5.19332
1691.74 2052354.42 1059.714 14% 20% 3.53101
771.94 2022630.56 1053.841 15% 20% 2.818191
3228.30 2190616.59 1097.331 161% 23% 5.64846
1660.03 2201696.88 1108.364 55% 23% 7.089965
1908.49 2229401.15 1123.751 95% 25% 8.691203
1591.04 2235099.69 1132.568 23% 25% 7.218731
1753.27 2250633.82 1144.062 29% 25% 8.678696
434.15 2213140.25 1131.155 5% 25% 8.393915
157.93 2174065.27 1113.776 2% 24% 8.666687
5261.70 2621634.54 1186.546 26% 24% 3.700692
4302.95 2895664.12 1240.277 22% 24% 0.071029
2574.76 2958947.47 1262.896 12% 24% -1.969017
2447.65 3009481.18 1282.642 31% 24% -0.030419
 SS MS F Significance F
1.09E+09 1.09E+09 12.81028 0.000826
3.91E+09 84995288
5E+09

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
3217.727 4.203713 0.00012 7049.45 20003.35 7049.45 20003.35
96.05511 3.579146 0.000826 150.4463 537.1441 150.4463 537.1441
Simple Exponential Smoothening
Alpha 0.9
Week Demand Level Forecast Error Abs Error tMSE t MAD t %Error MAPE t
0 106.3333
1 108 107.8333 106.3333 -1.666667 1.666667 2.777778 1.666667 1.54321 1.54321
2 116 115.1833 107.8333 -8.166667 8.166667 46.51389 5.583333 7.04023 4.866433
3 118 117.7183 115.1833 -2.816667 2.816667 68.11009 7.238889 2.387006 6.224514
4 124 123.3718 117.7183 -6.281667 6.281667 111.1063 9.302917 5.06586 7.792378
5 96 98.73718 123.3718 27.37183 27.37183 128.3909 10.25323 28.51233 9.161923
6 119 116.9737 98.73718 -20.26282 20.26282 124.8494 10.26952 17.02758 9.084649
7 96 98.09737 116.9737 20.97372 20.97372 133.7646 10.75732 21.84762 9.823173
8 102 101.6097 98.09737 -3.902628 3.902628 122.0301 10.20212 3.826106 9.369263
9 112 110.961 101.6097 -10.39026 10.39026 110.5408 9.548093 9.27702 8.756393
10 102 102.8961 110.961 8.960974 8.960974 103.227 9.204858 8.785268 8.480336
11 92 93.08961 102.8961 10.8961 10.8961 115.6953 9.777522 11.84358 9.241429
12 91 91.20896 93.08961 2.08961 2.08961 124.6886 10.20887 2.296274 9.840701
13 91.20896
14 91.20896
15 91.20896
16 91.20896

A higher alpha means we are giving higher weightage to recent data

This may be useful when the underlying demand pattern is not known
However, it is not advisable to use smoothing constants greater than 0.2 for extended periods of
time
TS t
Demand
-1
-2 140
-3
120
-4
-2.258523 100
-3.262871
80
-1.842835
-1.324062 60
-1.866769
-1.271974 40

0.38822 20
1.836596
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11 12
 Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Mean
Smoothing(F Absloute Squared
Month Demand Level orecast) Error Error Error(MSE) MADt %Error MAPE
0 1659
1 100 1191.3 1659 1559 1559 2430481 1559 1559 1559
2 1113 1167.81 1191.3 78.3 78.3 1218305.95 818.65 7.03504 783.0175
3 1271 1198.767 1167.81 -103.19 103.19 815753.355 580.1633 8.118804 524.7179
4 1445 1272.637 1198.767 -246.233 246.233 626972.689 496.6808 17.04035 397.7985
5 1558 1358.246 1272.6369 -285.3631 285.3631 517864.571 454.4172 18.31599 321.902
6 1648 1445.172 1358.24583 -289.7542 289.7542 445546.722 426.9734 17.58217 271.1821
7 1724 1528.82 1445.172081 -278.8279 278.8279 393003.62 405.8097 16.17331 234.7522
8 1850 1625.174 1528.820457 -321.1795 321.1795 356772.705 395.231 17.36106 207.5783
9 1864 1696.822 1625.17432 -238.8257 238.8257 323468.816 377.8526 12.81254 185.9377
10 2076 1810.575 1696.822024 -379.178 379.178 305499.528 377.9851 18.26484 169.1704
11 2167 1917.503 1810.575417 -356.4246 356.4246 289275.797 376.0251 16.44783 155.2865
12 2191 1999.552 1917.502792 -273.4972 273.4972 271402.874 367.4811 12.48276 143.3862
13 1999.552
14 1999.552

Holt's Model Alpha 0.05 Beta 0.1

Mean
Squared
Absolute Error
Month Demand Level Trend Forecast Error Error (At) (MSEt) MADt %Error
0 948 109
1 100 1009.15 104.215 1057 957 957 915849 957 957
2 1113 1113.347 104.213175 1113.365 0.365 0.365 457924.6 478.6825 0.032794
3 1271 1220.232 104.4803754 1217.56 -53.44007 53.440075 306235 336.935 4.204569
4 1445 1330.727 105.0818139 1324.712 -120.2877 120.287696 233293.5 282.7732 8.324408
5 1558 1441.918 105.6927713 1435.809 -122.1915 122.191497 189621 250.6569 7.842843
6 1648 1552.63 106.1947171 1547.611 -100.3892 100.389151 159697.1 225.6122 6.091575
7 1724 1662.084 106.520592 1658.825 -65.17498 65.1749764 137490.1 202.6926 3.780451
8 1850 1772.674 106.9275702 1768.604 -81.39564 81.3956356 121132 187.5305 4.399764
9 1864 1878.822 106.8495616 1879.602 15.60172 15.6017164 107699.9 168.4273 0.837002
10 2076 1990.188 107.3012056 1985.671 -90.32881 90.3288079 97745.86 160.6175 4.351099
11 2167 2100.964 107.6487614 2097.489 -69.51116 69.5111619 89299.13 152.3351 3.207714
12 2191 2207.732 107.5606956 2208.613 17.61316 17.6131576 81883.38 141.1082 0.803887
13 2315.293
14 2422.854
TS

1
2
3
4
5 Method Standard Deviation(1.25*MADt)
6 Exponential Smoothing 459.35
7 Holt's 176.39
8
9 Prefer Exponential Smoothing as Standard Deviation is less
10
11
12

MAPEt TSt

957 1
478.5164 2
320.4125 2.68278706
242.3904 2.771257139
195.4809 2.638849576
163.916 2.486818045
141.0395 2.446470844
123.9596 2.210232257
110.2793 2.553550831
99.68645 2.115329721
90.91566 1.774034856
83.40634 2.040000456
Comparing with Q6

MAD MAPE MSE SD

5.281653 92.45307 142965.1 6.602066
Holts Model
Alpha 0.5 Beta 0.5
Month Demand Level Trend Forecast Error ABS error MSE t MAD t % Error
0 948 109
1 100.00 578.5 -130.25 1,057 957.00 957 915849 957 957
2 1113.00 780.625 35.9375 448 -664.75 664.75 678870.8 332.375 59.72597
3 1271.00 1043.781 149.5469 817 -454.44 454.4375 521418.3 151.4792 35.75433
4 1445.00 1319.164 212.4648 1,193 -251.67 251.6719 406898.4 62.91797 17.41674
5 1558.00 1544.814 219.0576 1,532 -26.37 26.37109 325657.8 5.274219 1.692625
6 1648.00 1705.936 190.0896 1,764 115.87 115.8721 273619.3 19.31201 7.031072
7 1724.00 1810.013 147.0832 1,896 172.03 172.0256 238758.3 24.57509 9.978285
8 1850.00 1903.548 120.3092 1,957 107.10 107.096 210347.2 13.387 5.788973
9 1864.00 1943.929 80.34489 2,024 159.86 159.8572 189814.7 17.76191 8.57603
10 2076.00 2050.137 93.27652 2,024 -51.73 51.72651 171100.8 5.172651 2.491643
11 2167.00 2155.207 99.1732 2,143 -23.59 23.58674 155596.7 2.144249 1.088451
12 2191.00 2222.69 83.32824 2,254 63.38 63.37983 142965.1 5.281653 2.892735
13 2,306
14 2,389
15 2,473
16 2,556

An alpha and beta value of 0.5 each is minimizing the MAD and hence the Standard Deviation
This signifies that there is an underlying trend in data which is captured by the higher beta value , hence for the given datas
 MAPE t TS t

508.363 1
350.8268 0.879278
267.4743 -1.070692
214.3179 -6.577761
179.7701 -83.46838
155.5141 -16.79568
136.7985 -6.198665
122.5516 -3.379155
110.5456 6.453159
100.5949 12.15893
92.45307 18.33145
92.45307 19.44221
Standard Deviation(1.25*MADt)
Model 1 Alpha=0.5
0
Beta=0.5

Model 2 Alpha=0.05
0
Beta=0.01

ue , hence for the given dataset Alpha=0.5 and Beta=0.5 is preferred.