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CRBOM Small Publications Series No. 10

Floods and climate change -

observations from Java

by

Fahmi Hidayat

Center for River Basin Organizations and Management,

Solo, Central Java, Indonesia

October 2009
The 'Small Publications' are intended for knowledge-sharing and dialogue. In some
cases they may present facts, information and lessons learnt. In other cases, they
provide news, opinions, ideas or open questions for discussion.

They express the opinions of the author(s) and not those of CRBOM.

They can be freely copied and disseminated.

Contributions are most welcome - in English or in Bahasa Indonesia.

The author:
Fahmi Hidayat, Chief, Water Resources Management and Technology Unit, PJTI,
and Deputy Director, CRBOM,
[email protected]

CRBOM
Center for River Basin Organizations and Management,
Solo, Central Java, Indonesia
www.crbom.org
[email protected]
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Contents
Acknowledgement...........................................................................................................................i
Summary .........................................................................................................................................i
Acronyms and abbreviations.......................................................................................................... ii
Glossary ......................................................................................................................................... ii
1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................1
2 Floods and flood risk............................................................................................................1
3 Climate change effects ........................................................................................................4
4 Cause-effect relationships ...................................................................................................4
5 Adaptation measures ...........................................................................................................5
6 Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................7
References .....................................................................................................................................7

Acknowledgement
The paper is based on work and publications by individuals and staff teams of Jasa Tirta I
Public Corporation, part of which is listed under references.

Summary
Java is exposed to a number of factors that affect the flood risk and flood vulnerability, such as
(in random order): El Niño (mesoscale) climate oscillations; global climate change; volcanic
eruptions and earthquakes; changed land use; land subsidence related to groundwater
abstraction; sand mining; river regulation; and general development of the physical
infrastructure. With land slides as a related calamity, serious (and apparently escalating)
consequences to human lives, crops, properties and infrastructure have occurred in recent
years.

Flood proofing measures are in progress or are being planned at the national, province,
regency/municipality and community level of administration. They include flood storage
capacity; dykes; flood channels; drainage (flow) capacity maintenance and enhancement; land
conservation in headwater areas; erosion control (terracing, re-greening, reforestation and sabo
works); flood hazard mapping; public awareness; and forecasting and operational warning.
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Acronyms and abbreviations

BIT: Bandung Institute of Technology
ENSO: El Niño Southern Oscillation
IPCC: Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change

Glossary
Adaptation: Adjustment to new circumstances
El Niño is an occasional eastward surface drift in the Pacific Ocean along Equator, causing a
temperature increase of more than 0.5°C across the Central Pacific. In most years the
warming lasts only a few weeks or a month; but when the it lasts for many months,
related weather anomalies can be serious and widespread, such as low rainfall in
Indonesia. The reverse phenomenon, La Niña, is a westward surface drift in the Pacific
along Equator that is related to increased rainfall in Indonesia. The frequency of El Niño
events is 2-7 years and the duration can be 1-2 years
Flash flood: An abrupt flood caused by extreme rainfall in upstream mountainous areas; difficult
to predict more than a few hours in advance
Flood damage: (1) The actual damage done during a flood that has occurred; or (2) the
estimated potential damage done due to floods (over a period of time)
Flood impact: In Java, same as flood damage (because the impacts are negative. In some other
Asian countries, like Bangladesh and Camodia, flood impacts can be positive)
Flood preparedness: Due awareness of the flood risk, and knowledge and ability of appropriate
response. A good flood preparedness is supported by measures such as awareness
campaigns, education, and flood proofing measures
Flood proofing: Preventive (structural and non-structural) measures to reduce the impact of
floods; can include land use planning, operational warning and contingency planning
Flood protection: Measures (such as embankments, storage and drainage, and reservoir
operation) to reduce the flood risk - 'to keep the floods away from people'
Flood risk: The probability that a location or an area will be flooded (or, in more detail, exposed
to a certain flood level over a certain period of time)
Flood vulnerability: Conceptually, 'flood vulnerability = 'flood risk' x 'potential flood damage'
Flood-prone: With a high flood risk
Mesoscale (in meteorology): Somewhere around 10-30 years
Mitigation: Reducing an (adverse) impact (once the damage has occurred)
Sabo: (1) Japanese word for 'erosion control'; (2) name of a school of comprehensive erosion
control management, with a particular view to mountainous areas, and involving
structural adaptation and maintenance of vegetation cover. Introduced in Japan by a
ministerial decree from 1871, based on an ancient national tradition for forest
conservation; and applied in Indonesia since 1970. Ref. Okamoto, Masao (Jan 09): The
structure of sabo administration, published on the website of the International Sabo
Network: http://www.sabo-int.org/
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1 Introduction
In late December 2007 and early January 2008, persistent heavy rains led to
overflowing rivers, flooding and landslides throughout Indonesia, resulting in numerous
fatalities and crop losses. The two largest river basins, Bengawan Solo and Brantas
(Central and East Java) were the hardest hit - particularly the former - with more than
100 people killed and hundreds of thousands affected.

A recent study of climate change vulnerability1 observes that

'... Jakarta in Indonesia comes out as the top most vulnerable region in SE
Asia. Moreover, the areas in western and eastern Java are also vulnerable
using the regional standard.'

The present paper provides a summary of the related hazards of floods and climate
change in Java.

2 Floods and flood risk

Recent severe calamities in Java include a mudslide on the northern shore in January
2006; floods in Jakarta in early 2007; and floods in the Bengawan Solo Basin in
December 2007/January 2008, and again in early 2009.

There is some convincing evidence that the flood risk is increasing, as indicated by the
figure below. The figure shows 154 flood events in Indonesia - more than 6 per year,
but clearly escalating over the period. 54 of these floods were classified as severe;
more than 40 of the floods occurred in Java, and most of these in the Bengawan Solo
Basin.

Figure 1: Number of floods per year in Indonesia

20

15

10

0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Data: Dartmouth Flood Observatory: Global active archive of large flood events

1
Yusuf, Arief Anshory and Herminia A Francisco (Jan 09), p. 13. This study evaluates the
vulnerability on the basis of exposure, adaptive capacity, and population density. Java has a high
vulnerability, even if the adaptive capacity is high, because also the exposure and the population
density are high
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Figure 2: Location map

Bengawan
Solo
Basin
Brantas
Basin

The 2007/08 floods and landslides in the Bengawan Solo Basin killed more than 100
people (mostly due to landslides) and affected hundreds of thousands. A major road
(between Solo and East Java Province) was cut off, impeding access to the worst
affected disaster areas. In Solo municipality, some 6,500 households were inundated
(and many more elsewhere in the basin), with the worst damage in the poorest
neighbourhoods. The damage was estimated at around 200 mio. USD, including
damage to crops and infrastructure.

The direct cause of these floods were intense rainfalls over the upper parts of the basin,
peaking at 124-141 mm/day (a 55-500 years return period). The related river flows
varied from place to place between a 30-years and a 50-years return period, with the
flood protection schemes being designed for return periods of 5-10 years.

Figure 3: After the floods: Flood height during the Dec 07/Jan 08 flood, Solo City (Surakarta)

At the same time, in the adjacent Brantas Basin, rainfalls were recorded at up to 578
mm in 23 hours (at one station, Dampi). In the largest reservoir in that basin, Sutami,
the water level increased by 7.97 m over 24 hours; but comprehensive flood damage
was prevented, due to adequate control structures, completed river improvement
projects on the Brantas mainstream, and a functional warning system.

In January-March 2009 a series of four floods occurred in the Bengawan Solo Basin.
These flood inundated a smaller area than in 2007/08, but the duration was longer. The
damage was estimated at around 100 mio. USD.
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In this basin, the floods and their impacts were amplified by watershed degradation,
lack of flood control structures, incomplete river improvement projects, lack of drainage
and storage capacity, and lack of an operational flood forecasting and warning system.

Figure 4: The Sutami Dam, Brantas Basin

The Sutami project was completed in 1972, with a live storage of 253 mio. m3.
Since then, due to siltation, the live storage has decreased to 148 mio. m3

Figure 5: Flash flood, Brantas Basin, 2006

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3 Climate change effects

According to Yusuf (Jan 09, page 6), the dominant climate-related hazards for Java are
droughts, floods, landslides, and sea level rise.

Studies reported by Ratag (07) and Susandi (07) indicate long-term increases in
temperature, evaporation and average rainfall, as well as increasing occurrence of
extreme rainfalls - a main cause of floods in Java.

In comparison, an IPCC study indicates a slight long-term decrease in rainfall over

Java2, but supports the possibility of increased rainfall irregularities, including extreme
rainfalls (in which case both the drought risk and the flood risk may increase).

On top of the long-term variations, Indonesia is exposed to significant ENSO-related

meso-scale climate variability: Drought during El Niño episodes and extreme rainfall
during La Niña episodes. For example, the 1997/98 El Niño episode triggered forest
and bush fires over 9.7 million hectares in Indonesia3. (Such fires, in turn, cause soil
erosion, release sediments, and add to the flood risk).

4 Cause-effect relationships
Java is characterized by
• a high population density (around 1,000 people/km2);
• a seasonality of rainfall and river flows that varies from low in West Java to high
in East Java;
• a mountainous geography with related intense rainfalls (thunderstorms) and
high rainfall variability, and a high risk of landslides;
• a dynamic morphological context, affected by a string of volcanoes and frequent
earthquakes; and
• a well developed water management infrastructure with many reservoirs
(including multi-purpose reservoirs) and irrigation systems.

Examples of causes and effects of floods in Java are given in the following table.

2
IPCC Technical Paper VI (Jun 08) page 26
3
IPCC (2007), page 478
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Table 1: Flood-related causes and effects

Causes: • Global climate • Volcanic • Groundwater • Changed land use
change eruptions abstraction • Infrastructural
• ENSO • Earthquakes development
(mesoscale) • Deforestation • Population pressure
climate variability
• Forest fires
Primary effects: Flood risk Vulnerability
• More frequent • Sediment • Land subsidence • Increased
extreme rainfalls releases, (up to 8-10 vulnerability
• Sea level rise causing reduced cm/year in some
storage capacity towns in Java)
and increased
flow resistance
• Intensified runoff
Secondary effects: • More frequent • More frequent, • Increased • Loss of human lives
and more severe more severe and inundation • Damage to
floods more abrupt properties, crops
• Land slides floods and infrastructure
• Water logging • Land slides • Disruption of trade,
• Water logging education and
employment

5 Adaptation measures
A distinction can be made between flood risk - the probability that a flood will occur -
and the potential flood damage - once the flood occurs. Both the flood risk and the
potential flood damage are partly manageable.

Adaptation must involve the central government, as well as the province governments,
regencies/municipalities, communities, and civil society.

Flood risk management

The flood risk can be reduced by measures such as
• flood protection, flood retention and drainage schemes, including dykes, dams,
reservoirs, and floodways):
• dredging of reservoirs and critical flow channels;
• river improvement projects (to increase the flow capacity);
• land conservation, catchment management planning; and
• erosion management (terracing and sabo works: Re-forestation, re-greening,
sediment control structures).

This summary does not include land subsidence, which has different causes (and
mitigation options) but similar effects.

Management of potential flood damage

The potential flood damage can be reduced by measures such as
• public education and awareness of floods and the environment;
• flood hazard mapping, to be mainstreamed into related sector planning and
structural design; and
• operational flood forecasting and warning.
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Figure 6: Neighbourhood flood alarm, Solo City (Surakarta)

International collaboration
Climate change is an international phenomenon. International collaboration includes
technology transfer and capacity-building, data sharing, and collaboration within
weather and climate monitoring and forecasting, including long-term assessments.

A new framework for disaster management

A new framework was provided by the 2007 Disaster Management Law, instituting
preventive risk management along with response to specific disasters, and involving the
entire society in the efforts.

The Indonesian Disaster Management Law No. 24/2007

This law has created three fundamental shifts of paradigm:
The first one is that the emphasis of disaster management is shifting from emergency
response to risk management. This shift leads into substantial change of perception. In the
past, disaster management was viewed as a series of complex, expensive and instantaneous
specific actions limited to the emergency situation which were undertaken merely by the
experts. Now, disaster management is not only about responding to emergency situation, but
also how to undertake risk management.
The second shift of paradigm is about the issue concerning public/people’s protection
which was previously considered as the actualization of the government supremacy. Now, it
is considered as the protection of human rights. Therefore, through democratization and
regional autonomy, the Government accountability has moved closer to the constituent.
The third shift of paradigm is that a disaster - previously deemed as the responsibility of the
Government - now has turned into a mutual concern of the society. On this note, disaster
management is moving from the ‘domain of Government’ to ‘everybody’s business’, where all
the aspects of disaster management, such as the policy, institutional, coordination and
mechanism must include the participation of civil society and the private sector.
Quoted from Triutomo (Dec. 08), page 4
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6 Conclusion
Two recent floods in the Bengawan Solo Basin have caused losses of human lives and
damage for a around 300 mio. USD.

During the first of these floods, in 2007/08, the adjacent Brantas Basin was exposed to
comparably extreme rainfalls, but the damage caused was much less, due to effective
structural flood protection.

There is clear evidence that the flood risk has increased significantly over the last
decades. Climate change - particularly the expected increased rainfall irregularity - will
further add to the risk.

A number of management options are available to reduce the flood risk and the
vulnerability to floods.

References
Bates, B C, Z W Kundzewicz, S Wu and J P Palutikof (eds) (Jun 08): Climate change and water. Technical
Paper VI of the IPCC, IPCC Sectretariat, Geneva
Dartmouth Flood Observatory: Global active archive of large flood events: www.dartmouth.edu/
Fahmi Hidayat, Harry M Sungguh and Harianto (Sep 08): Impact of climate change on floods in Bengawan
Solo and Brantas River Basins, Indonesia. Paper presented at 11th River Symposium, Brisbane,
Australia
Harianto, Harry M Sungguh, Fahmi Hidayat and Astria Nugrahany (Oct 09): Impact of climate change on
floods in Bengawan Solo Basin, Indonesia, and its adaptation and mitigation measures. Paper
submitted to the 4th Yellow River Forum, Zhengzhou, China
IPCC (Jun 08): Climate change and water. IPCC Technical Paper VI, edited by Bryson Bates, Zbigniew W
Kundzewicz, Jean Palutikof and Shaohong Wu. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC (2007): 4th Assessment Report - impacts, adaptation, vulnerability
PJTI (Sep 09): Information and Issues on Brantas River Basin. Presentation to Scoping Team for Water
and Climate Change Projection and Adaptation in Java Island and Citarum, Bengawan Solo and
Brantas River Basin, Indonesia
PJTI: Integrated water resources development and management in a river basin context: The Brantas
River Basin's experience
Ratag, M (07): Perubahan iklim: Perubahan variasi curah hujan, cuaca dan iklim ekstrim. Badan
Metereologi dan Geofisika, Jakarta
Susandi, A (07): Perubahan iklim Indonesia dan implikasinya. Program Studi Meteorologi - ITB Bandung
Triutomo, Sugeng (Dec 08): Interim national progress report on the implementation of the Hyogo
Framework for Action, Indonesia. Country report prepared for UN (May 09): Global assessment
report on disaster risk reduction: Risk and poverty in a changing climate
Yusuf, Arief Anshory and Herminia A Francisco (Jan 09): Climate change vulnerability mapping for
Southeast Asia. Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA)
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Center for River Basin Organizations and Management,

Solo, Central Java, Indonesia
www.crbom.org, [email protected]