Our Energy Future

The Advanced Energy Initiative

University of California, San Diego

Dr. Stephen Mayfield

 What is ENERGY?

Energy = Capacity to do Work

Work = Force multiplied by the Distance

1. Source: Tony S

First law of thermodynamics:

Energy can neither be created nor destroyed, it can only be
transformed from one state (form) to another

Source: Unknown Source: Unknown 2. Source: Toru Yamanaka 3. Source: iStockphoto Source: Unknown

Chemical Solar Mechanical Nuclear Electrical

Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy
1. http://www.wyzant.com/resources/lessons/science/physics/work-and-energy
2. http://www.chron.com/lifestyle/travel/slideshow/Roller-coasters-of-the-world-15584/photo-1070502.php
3. http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2005/10/27/2242889.htm
 Primary Sources of Energy Today
Other 0.7%
Combustibles 10%

Hydro 2.2%

Nuclear 5.8%

Oil
33.2%

Coal
27%

Gas
21.1%

Total Supply 12,207 Mtoe*

Source: Unknown

*Million tonnes of oil equivalent

 Relationship of Energy and Power
Oil is stored energy Electricity is power

1. Source: BlessOilField Source: Unknown

Stored energy for use any time Delivered by transmission for immediate use

2. Source: John Sullivan

Source: Unknown

Power = energy over time (kWh)

1. http://www.addictinginfo.org/2013/05/21/oil-prices-have-been-rigged-for-years-e-u-just-now-starting-to-investigate/
2. http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/File:Blueangelsformationpd.jpg
 How Important is Energy?
40%
Increase
by 2020 Energy is the World’s Largest Market

Telecom
$2.0T
Chemicals
$1.7T
Energy Agriculture
$5.8T Pharma
$2.5T
$0.65T
Auto
$1.9T
Packaged
Food
$1.4T
The World’s Energy Market is Growing
Faster then the world’s population
Source: NASA

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.planetsofthesolarsystem.net/images/earth.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.planets
 Why are we continuing to consume
more oil every year?
Increased Energy Consumption leads to a Better Quality of Life

Without oil

Without coal

Without gas

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Energy_consumption_versus_GDP.png Source: Frank Van Mierlo

 Why do we use Liquid Fuels?

Energy Density of Transportation Fuels Inexpensive

40000
35000
30000
25000 1. Source: Shutterstock
Images LLC
Source: Unknown
Btu/L

20000 1 gallon gasoline 1 gallon Fiji Water

15000 $3.92 $7.15

10000
5000
0
Gasoline
Li-ion battery

Jet Fuel
150 bar hydrogen

LNG
Ethanol

Diesel Fuel

Source: Unknown

1 gallon gasoline Pizza

116,275 Btu 116,275 Btu (108.6 slices)
$3.92 $217

1. http://www.photo-dictionary.com/phrase/534/gas-can.html
Demand for World’s Oil is Increasing
Oil Consumption by Region

Million barrels per day

Source: Unknown
 The American Dream is Universal

Beijing Freeway 2009 –

19 Million New Cars in
China in 2010

In 2011 worldwide number

of cars surpassed
1 BILLION
1. Source: David Gray, Reuters

700,000,000 Number of Cars

600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000 World
300,000,000 US
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
1. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/100-km-chinese-traffic-jam-enters-day-9-1.876089 Source: Unknown
 US Oil Production 1920 - 2013
DOE - EIA

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/28/legendary-investor-says-we-should-forget-the-oil-b.aspx
 Isn’t Fracking going to make the US an
Oil exporter soon?

Source: Arthur Berman, Petroleum Truth Report Source: Mark Perry, American Enterprise Institute

Arthur Berman, Petroleum Truth Report Mark Perry, American Enterprise Institute
November 2012 July 2013
The Department of Energy does not view the US as
becoming “Energy Independent” any time soon

Source: U.S Department of Energy

The real success is that we are becoming

more Energy Efficient!
Average production profiles for shale gas wells

Source: U.S Department of Energy

 Overall field decline for Fracking wells
from production wells prior to 2011

Production pre2011 wells 1480

Number of wells

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: J. David Baker from Drill Baby Drill, 2013 Post-carbon Institute
North America at night

Source: NASA
 Fracking is not new technology
$100/barrel simply allows the technology to be used

We need intervention to address this crazy addiction

Source: NASA Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

Satellite view of Gas (red) and Oil (green)

North Dakota at night! wells in North Dakota
So just how much oil do we have?

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

The US consumes 7 billion barrels of petroleum per year

17
Oil Production Over the Last 10,000 Years
Thousands of barrels/day

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

Time (years)
When we think about energy we
also need to think about food

Source: Unknown Source: Unknown

Both are Chemical Energy: The energy in a substance

that can be released by a chemical reaction to do work!
 Fuel* and Food are both the biological conversion of
sunlight energy into chemical energy -
Photosynthesis!

Source: Unknown

Carbohydrate Lipids
Protein

*Petroleum (algae) and Coal (plants) are simply fossil Photosynthate

 Food & Fuel – Two Sides of the Same Coin
Chemical Energy

Food Energy Fuel Energy

Source: iStockphoto

1 gallon of gas = 31,500 calories

1 bushel of corn = 84,000 calories
1 bushel of corn = 2.8 gallons EtOH

Source: Unknown Source: Unknown

Average American Average American
consumes 2000-3000 consumes 40,000 calories
calories of food per day of fuel per day
Enormous yield increases over the last 50 years
were brought about by the Green Revolution

Source: Unknown

Source: Unknown Source: Unknown

 The food price index can be overlaid
On the oil price index

1. Source: Paul Chefruka

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Oil_Food.html
 World Population and Energy Production Are
Closely Linked
Thousands of barrels/day

Millions of people
Time (years)
Source: Unknown
 So does that mean tough luck
for the rest of the world?

1. Source: AFP, Getty Images

Source: Unknown
1. http://nypost.com/2013/06/21/radical-buddhist-monk-accused-of-inciting-riots-that-have-killed-hundreds-of-muslims/
 The World Consumes 16 Terawatts of
Energy every Year - 85% Fossil Fuel

The Good News

Source: Unknown

The Sun Provide 86,000 Terawatts of Energy Every Year

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