Journal of Contemporary Studies

A bi-annual publication of the Faculty of Contemporary Studies

Patron-in-Chief Lieutenant General Muhammad Saeed, HI (M),
President, National Defence University,
Islamabad.
Chairman Prof. Dr. Lubna Abid Ali, Dean, Faculty of
Contemporary Studies, National Defence
University, Islamabad.
EDITORIAL BOARD
Editor-in-Chief Prof. Dr. Zulfqar Khan
Editor Prof. Dr. Shaheen Akhtar
Assistant Editors Dr. Afsah Qazi
Dr. Fatima Bajwa
Dr. Rifaat Haque
Dr. Shazia Hassan

Research Associates Ms. Iffat Pervaz

Ms. Hafsah Batool

EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD

 Prof. Ian Talbot, Professor of Modern British History at the University of
Southampton, UK.
 Prof. Dr. Sally Wallace, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State
University, USA.
 Prof. Dr. Mehmet Asutay, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham
University, UK.
 Prof. Marvin G. Weinbaum, Director for Pakistan Studies at the Middle East
Institute, USA.
 Dr. Andrew Futter, Associate Professor of International Politics at University of
Leicester, UK.
 Dr. Julian Droogan, Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie
University, Australia.
 Dr. S. Gulden Ayman, Associate Professor, Marmara University Istanbul, Turkey.
 Dr. Nishchal N. Pandey, Director Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu, Nepal.
 Dr. Ying Rong, Senior Research Fellow, China Institute of International Studies
(CIIS).
 Prof. Tim Edmunds, Director of Teaching and Learning, School of Sociology, Politics
and International Studies (SPAIS), University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
 Dr. Arshin Adib Moghaddam, Department of Politics and International
Studies, School of oriental and African Studies (SOAS, University of
London.
 Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi, Political and Defence Analyst, Pakistan.
 Dr. Moonis Ahmar, Dean Faculty of Arts, University of Karachi, Pakistan.
 Dr. Rashid Ahmad Khan, Dean Social Sciences, University of Sargodha, Pakistan.
 Dr. Ejaz Hussain, Professor National Institute of Pakistan Studies, Quaid-i-Azam
University, Islamabad.
 Winter 2020
Volume IX, Number 2

JOURNAL OF

Editor-in-Chief
Prof. Dr. Zulfqar Khan

Editor
Prof. Dr. Shaheen Akhtar

Faculty of Contemporary Studies

National Defence University
Islamabad, Pakistan
 Editor’s Note
The Journal of Contemporary Studies is a flagship publication of the
Faculty of Contemporary Studies (FCS), National Defence University
(NDU), Islamabad. The journal offers its readers in academia, government
and the policymaking world in-depth and scholarly analyses, diverse
policy perspectives on important contemporary issues, and ongoing
debates in the areas of national and international security, public policy
and the wider field of world politics.
This issue of the journal comprises of seven articles, two book
reviews and five documents providing valuable primary information on
significant international developments. The first article, On Concept of
Arms Control by Nasir Mehmood establishes the distinctiveness of the idea
of Arms Control by assessing its position within military and international
relations theories. It demonstrates that Arms Control is a permanent
feature of international politics. It mutates its form and role as
international security landscape evolves. This improved understanding
will help better frame arms control policies in the 21st century amidst
transition in regional/international security orders.
The second article, The 21st Century World Order and Pakistan by
Hassan Farooq, Muhammad Khan and Sidra Khan discusses rise and fall of
great powers and its linkage to transitions in world order. It argues that in
the 21st century, the US-led hegemonic world order is increasingly been
challenged by rising powers, especially China that are striving for a
multipolar world order. Within this context, Pakistan, due to its
geostrategic location and great power relations holds great significance
and any contest between declining and rising powers may directly affect
its internal and external dynamics. Therefore, Islamabad should be
extremely careful in its foreign policy choices.
The third article, Maritime Cybersecurity: Vulnerabilities and
Counter Measures by Zaheema Iqbal and Muhammad Khurram Khan
explore recent developments in cyber security domain, which reveal an
increased number of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructures,
organizations, and industries. The maritime industry, being the critical
infrastructure of any nation, is highly vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Cyber-
attacks infiltrate the critical infrastructure in the maritime industry:
terminals, vessels, ships, transport operators, ports and any other
interconnected and integrated critical infrastructure. After looking into
existing cyber security measures, and guidelines in the maritime industry,
it emphasizes the urgency of ‘cyber security in maritime industry’ both on
land and onboard.
The fourth article Deforestation in Pakistan: CPEC an Auxiliary
Exacerbation, by Shaista Tabassum examines possible impact of
construction of roads, highways and other projects under China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor on environmental degradation in the country. It argues
that Pakistan’s already deteriorating environment would be further
stressed by deforestation occurring as CPEC progresses. It suggests that
reforestation is the best possible alternative to deal with the emerging
challenges.
The fifth article, Understanding Complex Nature of the Syrian Crises
by Khurshid Khan and Fouzia Amin explores on-going Syrian conflict in
the wake of the ‘Arab Spring’. It explains, how peaceful protests against
Assad regime’s policies spiralled into a civil war causing death of over half
a million people. The article also examines the competing interests and
role of America and Russia in Syria and regional politics.
The sixth article, A Critical Analysis of Different Educational Systems
on Students’ Outcomes: A Case Study of Pakistan by Syed Waqas Kausar
examines the impact of the three concurrent education systems prevailing
in Pakistan i.e. the madrassah, the public sector education system and the
private sector education system on the society. The article discusses how
because of this segregation, three generative structures are observed. It
concludes that the current education system is leading to the generation of
a particular class of society.
The last article, Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions: Consequences and
Responses, Muhammad Saleem Mazhar, Naheed S. Goraya and Samee Ozair
Khan attempts to analyse the consequences of killing of Iranian General
Qassem Soleimani. It argues that the killing has escalated US-Iran hostility
and tensions in the Middle East. It suggests that Islamabad should follow a
neutral course as it serves its geopolitical and domestic interests.
I am grateful to all the contributors who have sent their articles for
this issue, and the anonymous peer-reviewers whose valuable comments
helped authors to improve their contributions. We are accepting articles
for the upcoming issue of the Journal of Contemporary Studies based on
original qualitative or quantitative research, an innovative conceptual
framework or a substantial literature review that opens new areas of
inquiry and investigation. The editorial team at the journal promotes
submissions from expert analysts from around the world. The Journal
seeks to promote a scholarly understanding of contemporary issues
pertaining to traditional and non-traditional security, peace studies, public
policy and human resource development. It intends to stimulate
interdisciplinary research and writing.

Editor
Dr. Shaheen Akhtar
 CONTENTS

ARTICLES
1. On Concept of Arms Control 1
Nasir Mehmood
2. The 21st Century World Order and Pakistan 19
Hassan Farooq, Muhammad Khan & Sidra Khan
3. Maritime Cybersecurity: Vulnerabilities and 42
Counter Measures
Zaheema Iqbal & Muhammad Khurram Khan
4. Deforestation in Pakistan: CPEC an Auxiliary 59
Exacerbation
Shaista Tabassum
5. Understanding Complex Nature of the Syrian Crises 73
Khurshid Khan & Fouzia Amin
6. A Critical Analysis of Different Educational Systems 89
on Students’ Outcome: A Case Study of Pakistan
Syed Waqas Ali Kausar
7. Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions: Consequences & 106
Responses
Muhammad Saleem Mazhar, Naheed S. Goraya & Samee
Ozair Khan

BOOK REVIEWS
1. Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of
Authoritarianism 122
Anne Applebaum
2. The World: A Brief Introduction 125
Richard Haass

DOCUMENTS
1. Message from H.E. Imran Khan, Prime Minister of 128
the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on the 75th
Anniversary of the United Nations, October 24th,
2020, Islamabad.
2. Statement by the President of the Republic of 130
Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of
Armenia and the President of the Russian
 Federation, November 10th, 2020.
3. Ministers’ Declaration on India’s Participation in 132
the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP), Virtual Meeting, November
11th, 2020.
4. Joint Leaders’ Statement on the Regional 133
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (Rcep),
November 15th, 2020, Virtual Meeting.
5. Joint Statement on the Third U.S.-India 2+2 135
Ministerial Dialogue, October 27th, 2020.
On Concept of Arms Control 1

ON CONCEPT OF ARMS CONTROL

Nasir Mehmood

Abstract
Arms control is a distinctive concept. It concerns with the
distribution of military power; both conceptual and material, in
line with a particular conception of national/international
security. Although the basic idea of arms control is as old as history
of armaments and wars, it began receiving systematic treatment
from the late 1950s and the early 1960s onward. It was conceived
to support the fail-safe operation of the post-war strategic theory.
Over time, there has developed different meanings about the form,
nature, and functions of arms control. This article attempts to
explore these different and often incoherent interpretations of the
concept of arms control and works out a coherent position. The
article establishes the distinctiveness of the arms control concept
by assessing its position within military and international relations
theories. This article will not only broaden, but also deepen our
understanding about the concept of arms control. This improved
understanding will help better frame arms control policies in the
21st century amidst transition in regional/international security
orders.

Keywords: Arms Control, Disarmament, Deterrence, War, Security

Order

Introduction

A
rms control is a distinctive concept. It adjusts military means (both
conceptual and material) in line with a particular conception of
national/international security. It analyses the complex
relationship among arms, context, and security and how they feed on each
other. On the one hand, it seeks the positive effects of military means on
the international relations. On the other hand, it mitigates the destabilizing
effects of arms on the interstate relations. It in fact promotes rationality in
the politics of military means and national/international security. It brings
collectively and legitimacy in the distribution of military means.
Fundamentally, it envisions enlightened arms-based security structures in


Assistant Professor, Department of Strategic Studies, National Defence
University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected]
2 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

the international political system.

Although the basic concept and practice of arms control are as old
as the human history of armaments and wars themselves, the term itself is
relatively new.1 As prima facie, it started receiving systematic and
methodical treatment in both theorisation and praxis from the late 1950s
onward.2 The concept of arms control emerged as an integral part of the
post-war strategic theory. The nuclear revolution cast deep shadows over
the strategic thinking of the time. The prime focus was to grapple with the
implications of this new technology.3 In this context, the challenge of the
modern strategic theory was quite straightforward: how states could best
use nuclear weapons in their policy, while knowing the dangers of their
actual exchange.4 This necessitated the need for multilevel concepts and
multi-layered policies in this new era. As a part of this process, the
traditional thought patterns about self-help, total war, deterrence, limited
war, and arms race underwent a major refurbishment.
On this account, arms control was deemed necessary for perfecting
this new facelift of the strategic theory.5 The idea of arms control was
introduced to increase the prospect of the fail-safe operation of the post-
war strategic theory. In addition, it was pitched as an alternative to the
utopian theory of disarmament.6 Arms control is a counter-intuitive
strategic thinking, as it seeks cooperation between potential adversaries. It
expects a connection between conscious military cooperation and
national/international security. It reinforces the interaction between
military and diplomatic realms. Similarly, it attempts to harmonize the

1 Stuart Croft, Strategies of Arms Control: A History and Typology (Manchester:

Manchester University Press, 1996), 20-32.
2 Jennifer E. Sims, “The American Approach to Nuclear Arms Control,” Daedalus
120, no. 1 (1991): 262. Hedley Bull, “Arms Control: A Stocktaking and
Prospectus,” in Hedley Bull on Arms Control, eds., Robert O’Neill, and David N.
Schwartz (Basingstoke: The Macmillan Press Limited, 1987), 100. Many
principles and beliefs of the arms control theory had already occurred to
many analysts. However, the whole was assembled and presented at the
different conferences and workshops held in the Europe and the US only in
the late 1950s and the early 1960s.
3 Wim A. Smit, “Military Technologies and Politics,” in The Oxford Handbook on
Contextual Political Analysis eds., Robert E. Goodin, and Charles Tilly (Oxford:
Oxford University Press, 2008), 723-726.
4 Stephen M. Walt, “The Renaissance of Security Studies,” International Studies
Quarterly 35, no. 2 (1991): 214.
5 It is to reiterate that modern concept of arms control was, largely, shaped up
in the context of nuclear weapons and the Cold War. Robert R. Bowie, “Arms
Control in the 1990s,” Daedalus 120, no. 1 (1991): 53.
6 Ken Booth, “Disarmament and Arms Control,” in Contemporary Strategy:
Theories and Policies, eds., John Baylis et al., (New York: Holmes & Meier
Publishers, Inc., 1975), 90.
On Concept of Arms Control 3

military strategy within a nation’s wider national security policy.7

Despite voluminous production of literature on the subject matter
to date, there are a few systematic reflections on the concept of arms
control. Therefore, arms control lacks cohesion and specification,
compared with other mid-range theories currently in vogue in Strategic
Studies like that of deterrence, alliance-making, offence-defence, and so
on. Among arms control literature surveyed, Keith Krause has forthrightly
noted, “Canvassing the academic and policy-relevant literature of the past
50 years, one can find scattered contributions to theoretically-informed
reflection about arms control….”8Henry Kissinger has lent credence to this
view by observing: “Unfortunately, the debate about arms control has
often contributed more to passion than to understanding.”9
This article attempts to explore these different and often
incoherent interpretations of the concept of arms control and works out a
coherent position. The article underlines the distinctiveness of the arms
control concept by assessing its position within military and international
relations theories. To this end, the proceeding section begins by defining
arms control. It then elucidates arms control in relation to the theories of
international relations, disarmament, war, and deterrence. Afterwards, it
debates the purposes of arms control along with typology of its measures.
Finally, it concludes by discussing the conceptual and policy implications
of the distinctiveness of arms control for the 21st century amidst transition
in regional and international security orders.

Defining Arms Control

Defining arms control is stimulating. In the course of time, it has
assimilated a number of different interpretations, as it embraces a variety
of objectives and measures. Moreover, the relative esoteric character of
arms control process has made it difficult for commentators to describe its
dynamics and functions precisely. Resultantly, some feel tempted to
describe it in terms of its measures, while others in relation to its
purposes. Not surprisingly, one finds the definitions of arms control either
too restrictive or too generic.
In the light of this, it will be appropriate to broach the discussion
straight from the word “arms.” The word “arms” denotes more than just

7 Thomas Schelling, and Morton Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control (New
York: The Twentieth Century Fund, 1961), 143.
8 Keith Krause, “Leashing the Dogs of War: Arms Control from Sovereignty to
Governmentality,” Contemporary Security Policy 32, no. 1(2011): 20.
9 Henry A. Kissinger, “We Must Put Our Intellectual House in Order,” in Arms
and Arms Control: A Symposium, ed., Ernest Lefever (New York: Frederick A.
Praeger, 1962), 140.
4 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

armaments.10It refers to both the potential and the real military capability
of a state. It may also subsume the conceptual dimension of the military
doctrine and strategy.11 Subsequently, the word “control” is interpreted as
“induced or reciprocated” regulation/restraint in relation to certain
aspects of the military capability.12 This regulation/restraint may merely
seek preservation of the existing military means (both material and
conceptual) or aim at bringing about some modifications into them. Thus,
arms control involves reciprocated or induced adjustment of certain
elements of the military assets of the states involved. The preceding
analysis is instructive along two lines. Firstly, states are the primary
referents of the arms control activity. The non-governmental actors may
only participate in a supporting role with regard to the arms control
activities. Secondly, the scope of arms control is restricted to only military
resources. The firearms of police, individuals, and domestic groups are
usually categorised under a separate category of “gun control.”
Here, a reference of what motivates the states to go for arms
control in the definition may also be seemed logical. Given the anarchic
nature of international politics, states tend to rely on unilateral actions for
their security. That is, they view military power as a key instrument not
only to preserve but also to advance their security interests in the external
environment. The value of armaments increases manifold when states
have to pursue competing security interests, especially against their rivals.
In their wider deliberative processes, states may reach a conclusion,
however, that their military assets are of no substantial use in the pursuit
of particular security interests against their rivals. Conversely, their
unilateral military actions have appeared to be generating additional
unrequired politico-strategic challenges either in the present, or in the
anticipated upcoming security landscape.
On this account, states feel encouraged to reconcile with the limits

10 Patrick Morgan, “Elements of a General Theory of Arms Control,” in Arms

Control: History, Theory, and Policy eds., Robert E. Williams and Paul R. Viotti,
vol. 1, Foundations of Arms Control (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2012), 17.
11 David Edwards, Arms Control in International Politics (New York: Holt Inc.
1969), 11-13.
12 Schelling & Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, 5. The carefully and closely
knit bilateral and multilateral arms control measures are more effective to
constitute stable strategic and political relationships between contending
parties as compared to the isolated and unilateral measures. As a matter of
fact, this process invariably involves the members of executives, legislation
and other political actors, military men, civil servants, diplomats, civil society
and public from all parties concerned, which is essential to construct
enduring peace and security.; Rose E. Gottemoeller, “Arms Control in a New
Era,” The Washington Quarterly 25, no. 2 (spring, 2002): 46.
On Concept of Arms Control 5

of the self-help principle.13 Under enlightened security thinking, the rival

states tempt for reciprocated or induced restraint in relation to some
aspects of their military assets as a policy option to stabilize the strategic
competition and to generate leeway to resolve their basic political conflict
amicably. Putting all these considerations together, we can finally define
that arms control seeks reciprocated or induced restraint on selective
military means of states (especially of rival states) to reinforce an evolving
politico-strategic structures of security relations between them.
From this working definition, we can glean that arms control is a
technical and political instrument. It is not equivalent to a security system.
It instead works as a sophisticated regulator in a given security system.14
By its function, it develops its own system within the broader security
system to discharge its regulatory functions. It is an instrument of both
national and international security. It complements as well as supplements
the states’ conventional security arrangements.

Arms Control and Theory of International Relations

Strategic Studies is a sub-field of International Relations (IR).
Theory of IR provides a general framework to analyse the problematique
of Strategic Studies. With this pattern of widespread and critical
engagement between these two academic fields in place, one can fairly
anticipate the influence of IR theory in the development and praxis of arms
control.
Theory of IR describes the dynamics of international politics, as
well as prescriptions for the decision-makers. While inspecting the
anatomy of the international theory, Martin Wight found three distinctive,
but dynamically interweaving traditions of thought. He described them as
the realist, the rationalist, and the revolutionist.15 Each tradition has its
own description of the nature of international relations and a prescription
for the behaviour of international players. These three traditions are seen
coexisting although “in mutual tension and conflict.”16 It is, therefore,
logical to view these different approaches along a continuum rather than
in isolation.17

13 Michael O. Wheeler, “The Philosophical Underpinnings of Arms Control,” in

Arms Control: History, Theory and Practice, 64-65.
14 Richard K. Betts, “Systems for Peace or Causes of War? Collective Security,
Arms Control, and the New Europe,” International Security 17, no. 1 (1992):
10.
15 Martin Wight, International Theory: The Three Traditions, eds. Gabriele Wight,
and Brian Porter (London: Leicester University Press, 1991), 7.
16 Wight, “An Anatomy of International Thought,” Review of International Studies
13, no. 3(1987): 227.
17 A continuum signifies theoretical overlap. Each of the mentioned traditions
contains sub-variants, and some of these variants intersect each other.
6 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

At one end of the continuum are the realists (Machiavelli, Hobbes,

Hegel, Carr, Morgenthau, and Waltz etc.), who traditionally understand
international politics in terms of anarchy, power politics, and war.
Sovereign states are seen as the primary actors and viewed pursuing their
interests freely. Along with this, international political reality is equated
with international system of states. At the core of the realist’s tradition is
the doctrine that power is anterior to law and morality. It is also
maintained that sovereign states constitute an international system, as
they, in their mutual interaction, operate under pre-contractual condition.
Finally, the prescription for rulers involves the pursuit of self-interest with
unilateral military means.18
The rationalists (Grotius, Locke, Gladstone, Roosevelt, Bull, and
Schelling etc.) believed in the existence of the element of international
intercourse in the predominate condition of international anarchy. This
international intercourse involves both conflict and cooperation. For that
reason, anarchy is not seen as an anti-social condition. This leads them to
conclude that since states are not subjected to any common superior, they
essentially constitute a society of states.19 They faithfully cite the workings
of diplomacy, international law, balance of power, and so on as persuasive
examples of the existence of the international society. Moreover, they
presume that the issue of morality is real but complicated in politics. The
Grotian prescription subjects the international dealings to a series of rules,
institutions, and structures of morality.20 Finally, the rationalists propose
that power ought to be balanced and regulated.
On other end of the continuum, the distinctive tradition of the
revolutionist is situated. The adherents of this tradition (Kant, Cobden,
Lenin, Hoffmann, and Keohane) view humans rather than the sovereign
states as the primary actors. They explicate that states actually reflect the
wills of the individuals who manage their affairs. The Kantian tradition
believes that the faculty of reasoning unites humans.21 There is a harmony
of interests amongst them, and this develops a great deal of
interdependence among them. Building on this, the tradition discards the
conception of international relations in terms of a system of states. Rather,
it presents it as a global cosmopolitan community of humankind.22 In this
global community, moral issues are simple and constitute the real driving

Henceforth, the continuum sketch is analytically more useful rather than

pitching them separately. Rationalists hold middle ground in the continuum.
18 Wight, International Theory, 15.
19 Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics
(London: MacMillan Press Limited, 1977), 25.
20 Ibid.
21 Robert Jackson, and George Sorensen, Introduction to International Relations:
Theories and Approaches, 3rd ed.(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), 98.
22 Hedley Bull, “Martin Wight and the Theory of International Relations,” in
International Theory, xiv.
On Concept of Arms Control 7

force behind international relations. The adherents of the tradition

advocate for human security. Their prescription emphasizes the value of
revolutions and radical institutional transformations to bring about
enduring peace and progress.23
These traditional images of the international relations have
different implications for the value and practicality of arms control.
Insomuch as there are two main relevant sub-variants of the realists
(offensive and defensive), the realism pole of the continuum has two
telling implications for arms control. The adherents of offensive realism
believe that states try to maximize their power, and this mostly precludes
the opportunities for cooperation.24 The states may show some interest in
arms control if it can reinforce and seal their visible preponderance.25 The
defensive realists view this argument of the offensive realists as
incomplete and flawed. They instead posit that states seek security, not the
maximization of power. For security purposes, under some restricted
conditions, they can engage in arms control activities.26 To a certain extent,
their thoughts about the possibility of military cooperation under anarchy
intersect with the rationalist thought.
The English School, while drawing mainly on history, law, and
political theory, categorically reckons the existence of cooperation along
with conflict in the international politics. The rationalists subscribe to a
wider conception of security, which embraces the security of the state, as
well as of the international system of states. Because of this, they
concentrate not only on the immediate challenge of nuclear stability, but
also on larger issues of the security order.27 They seemingly tend to link
arms control with the manifestations of the balance of power theory.
Moreover, they view arms control as a useful policy instrument to bring
about progressive and just peaceful international change among the states.
On the issue of transformation, they share some common ground

23 Bull, “Martin Wight and Theory of International Relations,” xiv.

24 John J. Mearsheimer, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold
War,” International Security 15, no. 1 (summer, 1990): 12.
25 Anthony J. Eksterowicz, “The Balance of Power Foundation for Contemporary
Arms Control Praxis,” The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies 13,
no. 3 (1988): 318.
26 The followers of the contingent/defensive realism like Charles Glaser reject
the pessimistic assumptions of the offensive realists, and believe that states
prefer arms control to express their benign security intentions, which
essentially mitigates the effects of security dilemma. Nevertheless, Glaser ties
down arms control with the offense-defense variables. He argues that in the
realm of security, states cooperate on the principle of mutual benefit rather
than relative gains. See Charles L. Glaser, “Realists as Optimists: Cooperation
as Self-Help,” International Security 19, no. 3 (winter, 1994-1995): 50-90.
27 Nancy W. Gallagher, “Re-thinking the Unthinkable: Arms Control in the
Twenty-First Century,” The Non-Proliferation Review 22, no. 3-4 (2015): 485.
8 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

with the moderate Kantians, who consider arms control to be a first step
towards disarmament. Nevertheless, the hardliners of the Kantian group
show distaste for arms control. For them, arms control legitimises the
arms build-up, and preserves the status quo. Thus, it postpones the
change.28 Since they believe in revolutions for progress, they call for
general and complete disarmament.29
The preceding discussion shows that the existence of different
theoretical traditions within the theory of international relations has
different implications for the desirability and the undertaking of the arms
control system. If the governments in question hold a point of view from
the extreme right or left of the continuum, they will show reluctance for
adopting arms control. On the other hand, the policy makers adhering to
the theoretical precepts of the rationalist school will extend broader
support for arms control. Taken together, arms control draws inspiration
and responds across the international relations theories.

Arms Control and Disarmament

Arms control and disarmament are two distinct ideas relating to
national/international security. Arms control is not disarmament, as it is
merely concern with the regulation of armaments. While it is true that
they overlap in some of their measures and objectives, there are clearly
some values in preserving the difference between them.30 First, the theory
of arms control arose partly in response to the rejection of complete
disarmament in international politics. Arms control was put forward as a
pragmatic and practical idea against the utopian and rigid approach of
disarmament. Secondly, each idea holds different prescriptions about
international politics. The arms controllers suggest step-by-step and
progressive change in the politico-strategic settings of
national/international security. 31 On the contrary, the disarmers

28 Phil Williams, “Arms Control and European Security: Competing Conceptions

for the 1980s,” Arms Control: The Journal of Arms Control and Disarmament 4,
no. 2 (1983): 83.
29 Hans Gunter Brauch, “The Three World views of Hobbes, Grotius, and Kant:
Foundations of Modern Thinking on Peace and Security,” Free University of
Berlin, AFES-Press, 9, http://www.afes-press.de/pdf/Hague/
Brauch_Worldviews.pdf.
30 James E. Dougherty and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Contending Theories of
International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, 5th ed., (New York: Addison
Wesley Longman, Inc., 2001), 374. Jozef Goldblat has also stated that arms
control and disarmament are often used interchangeably. Jozef Goldblat, Arms
Control: The New Guide to Negotiations and Agreements (London: SAGE
Publication Limited, 2002), 3.
31 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Armaments and
Disarmament in the Nuclear Age: A Handbook (Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell
International, 1976), 274-75.
On Concept of Arms Control 9

recommend quick and radical change in international politics.

In addition, each carries contradictory views about the
relationship between the armaments and the onset of war. For arms
controllers, there is a complex relationship among political conflicts,
armaments, and war. Therefore, they pursue a prudent and deeper line of
thinking. They maintain that war comes about primarily due to the
processes that are essentially political in nature. At the same time, they
underline that the size, structure, and posture of the military forces play a
role in aggravating the conflict between the adversaries.32 That is to say,
each reflects and affects the other. While talking about these conceptual
linkages, Thomas Schelling and Martin Halperin have meticulously noted:

It is true that modern armaments and military plans are a response to

basic international conflicts. It is also true that the size and character of
military forces are an important determinant of national fears and
anxieties, and of the military incentives of our potential enemies. There is
a feedback between our military forces and the conflicts that they
simultaneously reflect and influence. 33

Conversely, the disarmers propagate a crude and sweeping

assumption that the weapons and arms races are the basic causes of war.
Moreover, the arms controllers perceive a ‘weapons-stability’ nexus, and
thus focus on their management. Whereas, the proponents of the
disarmament view a direct link between weapons and war and therefore,
call for the abolition of the weapons. Accordingly, arms controllers
promote the idea of restraint and disarmers plainly seek the reduction and
abolition of the weapons. The restraint may entail preservation of the
military balances or the increase of certain categories of weapons. Finally,
the disarmament activity may involve the unconditional and uncontrolled
reduction of weapons, which is hard to find in arms control practices.
On the other hand, there are those who view arms control and
disarmament as substitutes for each other. This perspective has arisen
from the fact that both the arms control and disarmament activities
invariably deal with the military assets, and, at times, employ specific
types of techniques to control and reduce anxieties and fears of
catastrophe. Therefore, these two terms can be, and often are used
interchangeably. The arms controllers like Schelling and Halperin believe
that the approach of arms control, in the literal sense, is not in opposition
to disarmament. Rather, it is a broader concept, which is meant to embrace
many of the problems and challenges of the disarmament.34Marek Thee, a
distinctive figure of the disarmament community, believes that it is the

32 Marc Trachtenberg, “The Past and Future of Arms Control,” Daedalus 120, no.
1(1991): 206.
33 Schelling and Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, 4.
34 Ibid., 2.
10 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

other way round, and has presented disarmament as the mother concept.
In his interpretation, arms control was understood as a workable opening
towards the goal of general and complete disarmament.35 Reinforcing this
pertinent interpretation, former director of the United Nations Office for
Disarmament Affairs, William Epstein has noted that the word
disarmament is used in the UNO as a generic term, encompassing all the
measures related to confidence building, arms regulations, and general
and complete elimination of the weapons.36
This occasional academic and public bewilderment about these
two terms cannot mask the real underlying differences between them.
Arms control and disarmament are not exact opposites, but are essentially
two different concepts. Both chart different strategies to reinforce
international peace and security. They are differentiated based on the
arguments behind their undertakings.

Arms Control and Causes of War

Many commentators believe that insofar as arms control seeks to
reduce the likelihood of war, the theory of arms control must be
predicated on the theory of the causes of war.37 There is in fact a centrality
as well as disagreement about this perspective. The significance of this
argument lies in understanding the post-nuclear revolution strategic
thinking, which opened the door for arms control. Nuclear revolution
brought about a revolution in strategic thinking. It questioned the
feasibility of brute force/general war in international relations. In this
regard, the influential strategist Liddell Hart noted that the purpose of
strategy was to reduce the “fighting to the slenderest possible
proportions.”38 The strategy was contemplated to produce results, without
escalating to serious fighting. This indirect approach of strategic thinking
views the responsibility of the strategist as being “not so much to seek
battle as to seek a strategic situation so advantageous that if it does not
itself produce the decision, its continuation by a battle is sure to achieve
this.”39
Three themes clearly flow from this exposition of strategy. One,

35 Marek Thee, “Arms Control: The Retreat from Disarmament the Record to
Date and the Search for Alternatives,” Journal of Peace Research 14, no. 2
(1977):99.
36 William Epstein, Disarmament: Twenty-Five Years of Effort (Toronto: Canadian
Institute of International Affairs, 1971), 3-4.
37 Robert Jervis, “Arms Control, Stability, and Causes of War,” Political Science
Quarterly 108, no. 2 (1993): 239.
38 Basil Liddell Hart, “Strategy: The Indirect Approach,” in Strategic Studies: A
Reader, eds., Thomas G. Mahnken, and Joseph A. Maiolo (Oxon: Routledge,
2014), 101.
39 Ibid., 102.
On Concept of Arms Control 11

war is not the preferred objective. Secondly, achieving a relatively peaceful

advantageous strategic environment is the prime strategic choice. Thirdly,
there is space for the calculative use of force. The idea of arms control
implicitly or explicitly embraces these strategic themes.
Arms control shows great sensitivity towards certain approximate
causes and paths to war so as to reduce the likelihood of war. It prudently
underlines both political and technical causes of war. Nevertheless, the
idea of arms control, to a larger extent, inspires from the spiral theory of
war (security dilemma) by inadvertence and accident in which neither
side expects the war. To curtail the prospects of unintended war, it works
on certain technical causes (arms race, types of weapons, and operational
practices), especially in the line of a crisis and catalytic war. This means
that arms control is designed to prevent some, but not all sorts of the
wars.40
Quite apart from this, the concept of arms control concerns with
the realm of peace.41 Peace is a much more complicated affair than war.
The theoretical foundations of peace and war overlap, but mostly differ.42
Traditionally, peace is understood as the absence of war. This is a bleak
and hardly comprehensive conception. At most, this is what we usually
describe as negative peace. As understood today, the conception of peace
involves much more than this. The conception of positive peace involves
the values like that of the quality of relationship, cooperation, integration,
and conflict management.43 Among others, just socio-political order also,
distinctively, characterizes a positive peace.44 Undeniably, the conditions
of negative and positive peace, themselves, provide the impetus for the
arms control activities. The arms control agreements, mechanisms, and
procedures play a critical role in the large processes to invent both

40 Coit D. Blacker, and Gloria Duffy, eds., International Arms Control: Issues and
Agreements, 2nd ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1984), 338.
41 The ‘long peace’ thesis emphasizes factors other than arms control which
include balance of terror, rules of game, respecting spheres of influence,
reconnaissance revolution, bipolar order, regional security regimes and so
forth. However, the arms control measures play a crucial role in framing and
supporting most of these factors. See Sterling Kernek, “The Long Peace:
Interpretation and Implications,” in Arms Control: Moral, Political and
Historical Lessons, ed., Kenneth W. Thompson (New York: University Press of
America, 1990), 120. For the role of regional security order in long peace, see
John S. Duffield, “Explaining the Long Peace in Europe: The Contributions of
Regional Security Regimes,” Review of International Studies 20 (1994): 370.
42 Paul F. Diehl, “Exploring Peace: Looking Beyond War and Negative Peace,”
International Studies Quarterly, no. 0 (2016): 6, http://isq.oxfordjournals.org/
content/ early/ 2016/02/25/isq.sqw005.
43 Ibid., 2.
44 Michael Howard, The Invention of Peace: Reflections on War and
International Order (London: Profile Books Limited, 2000), 3.
12 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

negative and positive peace as well.

Similarly, the concept of arms control, in conjunction with the
post-war strategic theory, does recognize the possibilities of calculated use
of force in international relations. For that, it proactively engages the
parties to formulate the tacit rules of the game. To summarize, arms
control is partly based on the causes of war and partly on the notion of
peace. It certainly transcends the theory of causes of war.

Arms Control and Deterrence

The relationship between arms control and deterrence also
requires specification. Many commentators consider arms control a
handmaiden of the theory of strategic deterrence.45 The concept of nuclear
deterrence aims at preventing war through threat. To this end, it requires
actual force preparation to make the threats credible. Meanwhile, its
actual use has to be guarded. This causes a classic usability dilemma. If the
nuclear forces are built around the notion of non-use, they may lose their
deterrent value. On the other hand, if employed, they would destroy the
security values, which they were supposed to protect.46 This suggests that
deterrence requires a delicate balance between certain factors. Albert
Wohlstetter rightly emphasized, “Deterrence demands hard, continuing,
intelligent work, but it can be achieved…. The balance is not automatic.”47
Deterrence is an attention-holding and intricate phenomenon. In
the nuclear era, the immediate goal of arms control is to articulate and
stabilize the delicate balance of terror between the nuclear rivals. To this
effect, it helps to straighten up the technical requirements, as well as the
intent of the deterrence between the potential rivals. Arms control efforts
are also directed to address the challenges of crisis stability and arms race.
In essence, arms control attempts to make deterrence less likely to fail and
dampen the impetus to build forces to achieve military advantage.
Although arms control undergirds the smooth functioning of
deterrence, it is not the sister concept of the theory of strategic deterrence.
To explicate, states can even achieve the deterrence condition without
having arms control measures in place. A fragile condition of deterrence
might be achieved between adversaries as an unintended consequence of

45 Michael Sheehan, Arms Control: Theory and Practice (Oxford: Basil Blackwell
Inc., 1988), 153. It is worth mentioning here that some analysts tend to argue
that deterrence is the ultimate form of contemporary arms control.
Analytically, this conception lacks cohesion and precision. Patrick M. Morgan,
“Criteria for Developing Arms Control Accords Arms Control: A Theoretical
Perspective,” Policy Studies Journal 8, no. 1(1979): 107.
46 John C. Polanyi, “Arms Control,” International Journal 17, no. 1 (1961-62): 40-
41.
47 Albert Wohlstetter, “The Delicate Balance of Terror,” Foreign Affairs XXXVII,
no. 2(January 1959): 221-22.
On Concept of Arms Control 13

their arms competition. For illustration, this kind of deterrence existed

between the Soviet Union and the United States during the 1950s and
early 1960s, without the support of arms control.48 Secondly, the
operational strategies of deterrence hinder achieving the political
objectives of arms control. Ostensibly, deterrence and arms control are
compatible with each other. It is believed that the threats and promises
must work together to enhance stability. Practically in some ways, they
deflect each other. Like, the operational strategies of deterrence
exacerbate the political animosity through the action-reaction process of
arms race and conflict escalation. Actually, the deterrence theory and
conflict-spiral model are complementary to each other. This situation, in
turn, creates challenges for arms control to work.49 Thirdly, the fluffy
conception and ever-changing requirements of strategic deterrence poses
additional challenges for arms control undertakings. Fourth, insomuch as
arms control is a regulator, it is equally compatible with security
arrangements other than the balance of terror. Thus, it is a mistaken to
conceive arms control as a mere sister concept of deterrence.

Objectives and Measures of Arms Control

Taken together, the preceding specifications guide to comprehend
the objectives and measures of arms control. As distilled, arms control
tends to seek diverse objectives. It is conceived as a means, not an end in
itself. According to first distinctively proclaimed objective, arms control
works to curtail the occasions, where war arises due to the
mismanagement of military means (strategy, doctrine, weaponry,
deployment, and other related activities). Along with this, it engages the
contending parties to lay down mechanisms, procedures, and facilities for
early termination of the war, if it erupts.50 The second widely recognized
objective of arms control is to reduce the economic cost for military
programmes. According to Bernard Brodie, saving money is the only
genuinely important and achievable objective of arms control.
Importantly, this line of reasoning tends to de-emphasize the relationship

48 The researcher derived this argument through the analysis of James King’s
idea of ‘fortuitous stability’. See James E. King, “The Price of Military Stability,”
in Arms Control: Issues for the Public, ed. Louis Henkin (New Jersey: Prentice-
Hall Publishers, 1961), 85-90.
49 Actually, the deterrence theory and conflict-spiral model are complementary
to each other. This situation, in turn, creates challenges for arms control to
work. Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, “Deterrence Theory and the Spiral
Model Revisited,” Journal of Theoretical Politics 10, no. 1(1998): 85; Also,
Jervis, “Arms Control, Stability, and Causes of War.”
50 Schelling and Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, 2.
14 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

between the military industrial complex and economic growth of a

country.51
The third objective of arms control is to establish international
norms of behaviour about certain types of weapons.52On the pragmatic
moral ground, certain arms control efforts are meant to establish
norms/taboos about the possession, use of certain weapons, and
protection of non-combatants etc. It is important to note that related
moral judgments are made after examining the politico-strategic trends in
the international arena. The fourth purpose of arms control is to stop the
militarization of the society. Bull noted that unchecked growths of the
military establishments are inimical to liberal and democratic institutions.
The overgrown military related activities and practices have adverse
effects on the overall psyche of the society.53 Similarly, Jack Snyder found
that the military organizations develop and promote their sympathizers in
the society and in the government circles. They inevitably put pressure on
the governments to pursue aggressive foreign policies, which, in turn,
contribute to the eruption of international crises and wars.54
The fifth purpose of arms control is to strengthen civilian control
of the military establishments. This is a less substantiated aspect of arms
control. The former US President, John F. Kennedy, in his special message
to the Congress on the eve of defence budget on March 28, 1961, fleshed
out the basic principles of the defence policy. In one of his
recommendations, he emphasized that “our arms must be subject to
ultimate civilian control and command at all times, in war as well as
peace.”55Taking this broad recommendation one step further, one can say
that arms control provides inroads to the civilian authorities into the
restricted defence policy processes. The sixth purpose of arms control is to
promote peaceful international change. It is argued that arms control is
also a vehicle for political change rather than merely preserving the status
quo. Linked to broader processes of change, it manages and boosts the
process of peaceful transformation of relationships starting from the
present to the end point in the future between the contending parties.

51 Bernard Brodie, “On the Objectives of Arms Control,” International Security 1,

no. 1(summer, 1976): 19.
52 Hedley Bull, The Control of the Arms Race: Disarmament and Arms Control in
the Missile Age, 2nd ed.,( New York: Frederick A. Praeger Publishers, 1965), 20-
24.
53 Bull, The Control of the Arms Race, 3-4.
54 Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition
(Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991), 31-60.
55 John F. Kennedy, “99-Special Message to the Congress on Defense Budget,”
The American Presidency Project, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/
?pid=8554.
On Concept of Arms Control 15

Importantly, arms control arrangements make the reversal process more

difficult.56
The final objective of arms control is to contribute in articulating
regional/international security order. This is one of the implicit and rarely
spoken objectives of the arms control enterprise. For some, it is the side
effect of the arms control interactions. For others, it is the prime agenda.
The underlying research, however, subscribes the latter perspective.
Security order means fundamental organizing rules and arrangements for
national/international security. In crude words, it is a settlement about the
distribution of power and behaviour in the international relations. In the
given anarchic environment, it seeks to turn power into order. It is a
sophisticated power game in which powerful states, along with middle and
weaker states, tend to tie down their security relations (political, military,
and economic) to certain new rules and regulations, so as to achieve
enduring peace and security, rather than relying on costly and risky
unilateral actions. Security order tends to mute power asymmetries as
much as possible in the international politics. Equally important, it injects
restraint and increases predictability. Security order is thus seen as an
important security value, as well as security instrument.
Major actors normally compete with each other to construct a
favourable security order. Since arms control activities greatly affect the
distribution of military power and behaviour in a given politico-strategic
context, the potential adversaries often tend to link it with their broader
defence, and foreign policy objectives. In this wider context, they feel
tempted to see the interconnectedness between military and non-military
issues. Also, they mark the link between bilateral and multilateral
arrangements. Seen in this way, the arms control is thought to achieve
from minimum to maximum ‘balance’ within the system of international
relations as a whole. Fundamentally, arms control undertakings help to
reconcile who, what, why, where, and how certain critical components of
the military means will hold, in line with their projected geo-politico-
strategic manoeuvrings, in a muted way. It gives rise to national, regional,
and international institutional arrangements to regulate and reinforce
mutually agreed conception of defence policy, foreign policy, and
regional/international security order.57

56 John Baylis, “Arms Control and Disarmament,” in Strategy in the

Contemporary World: An Introduction to Strategic Studies, eds. John Baylis, et
al., (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), 203. Lawrence Freedman has
also noted this value of arms control in the termination phase of the Cold War.
Lawrence Freedman, “Arms Control: Thirty Years On,” Daedalus, 120, no.
1(winter, 1991): 70-71. Bull, “Arms Control and World Order,” International
Security 1, no. 1 (summer, 1976): 3-16.
57 G. John Ikenberry, After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the
Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars (Oxford: Princeton University Press,
2001), 3-20. Richard Falk explained the orientation of the Cold War arms
16 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

This shows that arms control significantly contributes to the

political, strategic, economic, moral, and social realms. This also
establishes why it is so important to pursue arms control in the first place.
These objectives are both exploratory and analytical. Largely, these
objectives are internally consistent and mutually reinforcing. At the same
time, the relationship between some of these objectives is not without
complications and to an extent, entails contradictions.58 To substantiate,
almost every listed objective positively contributes towards the prime
objective of arms control-establishing security order. Meanwhile,
objectives (a), (b), and (c) may appear offsetting each other to some
degree. State parties may pursue one or more than one objective at a given
time. In this regard, they decide upon and prioritize the objective(s) in the
light of their current and anticipated politico-strategic environment. They
make decisions chiefly in relation to their key politico-strategic and
economic interests. In doing so, they also seem to keep their social and
moral interests in view.
There is a broad spectrum of measures under the rubric of arms
control. The rival states normally agree to different arms control measures
in line with the objective(s) in hand. The arms control measures
significantly vary in terms of their content, intricacy, and implications.59
Meanwhile, these measures may overlap and reinforce each other. They
are arbitrarily classified into the following distinctive measures: a)
declaratory, b) architectural, c) structural, d) functional, and e) data
exchange.60
Declaratory measures help to articulate the basic concept and
structure of the security framework/order. The measures usually include
joint declarations about security relationship, non-aggression pacts, rules
of engagement, and so on. Architectural measures shape and reinforce the
political geometry of the region/world.61 They may embrace measures of
demilitarization, denuclearization, and neutralization of particular
geographical areas. Such geographical security zones work as vehicles for
political rearrangements and assurances among the state parties. The
structural measures concern the quality, size, and composition of the

control efforts by saying that “arms control measures have served mainly to
ratify the bipolar dominance of international politics and to maximize the
stability of this dominance from a managerial standpoint.” See, Richard A.
Falk, “Arms Control, Foreign Policy, and Global Reform,” Daedalus 104, no. 3
(summer, 1975): 40.
58 Jennifer Sims, Icarus Restrained: An Intellectual History of Nuclear Arms
Control, 1945-1960 (Boulder: Westview, 1991).
59 Morgan, “General Elements of Theory,” in Arms Control: History, Theory and
Policy, 17.
60 Johan Jorgen Holst, “Arms Control in the Nineties: A European Perspective,”
Daedalus 120, no. 1 (winter, 1991): 96-100.
61 Ibid.
On Concept of Arms Control 17

military establishments. The measures significantly affect the force

posture and force level. The overriding purpose of these measures is to
communicate reassurance about intentions and incentives.
The peacetime activity-oriented measures fall squarely into the
category of functional measures.62 These measures regulate the size,
composition, frequency of military exercises and manoeuvres, and other
military related activities in the national border areas. These measures
reduce fears of preparations and their potential impact on political
relations. Finally, data exchange measures concern force planning and
routine military activities. The parties can exchange data concerning
military expenditures, major weapons holdings, developments,
procurements, and objectives of future force planning.63 In addition, these
measures may also include notifications and observance of military
exercises, missile test flights, nuclear installations, and reporting of
accidents.
The different arms control undertakings- processes, measures, and
related institutional arrangements- generate certain values to achieve
different objectives. In so many ways, arms control is a negotiating process
and negotiated outcome. It develops a communication link between
contending parties, allowing them to discuss their contentious security
issues ranging from politics to military, and economy. Freedman
reinforces that arms control is a means of “providing a forum for dialogue
on military issues, a means of signalling shifts on broader political
questions, and so on.”64 Some analysts have gone one-step further in
stating that arms control activities help adversaries to ‘educate’ each other
in relation to their security conceptions, strategies, force postures, levels,
and operational activities and their link.
The second value that arms control tends to produce is what
Joseph Nye has called ‘reassurance.’65 Through the process of
communication, potential adversaries may identify points of contention,
and explore some relevant arms control measures to reassure each other.
In doing so, they bring about transparency and predictability in their
military behaviour, which certainly alleviate misperception and security
dilemma.

62 Richard E. Darilek, and John K. Setear, “Constraints in Europe,” in

Conventional Arms Control and East-West Security, eds. Robert D. Blackwill,
and F. Stephen Larrabee (London: Duke University Press, 1989), 402.
63 Holst, “Arms Control in the Nineties: A European Perspective,” 100.
64 Freedman, “Arms Control: Thirty Years On,” Daedalus 120, no. 1 (1991): 72.
65 Joseph S. Nye, “Arms Control and International Politics,” Daedalus 120, no. 1
(1991): 161.
18 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Conclusion
Presently, there is the rise of great power political conflict, geo-
political rivalries, and disruptive technologies amidst transition in
international security order. As geo-politics evolves, the arms control
structures are coming under great-stress. US, Russia, European Union,
China, and other lesser regional players, are, now, increasingly involved in
restructuring security order. US and Russia are unravelling their former
bilateral arms control agreements one by one. Along with this, China,
European powers, and other lesser regional powers are without a common
arms control agenda. Yet worse, the world powers are committing
themselves for burgeoning arms build-up, as part of their balancing act
against each other.
What does this mean for arms control? Many commentators have
viewed these developments as an end to arms control. As distilled, arms
control is a skin not a sweater to the body of international relations. It
adapts to changing geo-political context. It mutates its form and role, as
international security landscape evolves. The emerging security order is
less transparent and less stable. It needs to be replaced with transparent
and well-functioning security order undergirded by expanded arms
control structures. To this end, a greater strategic empathy and
decompartmentalization of arms control are essential across national,
regional, and international levels.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 19

DYNAMICS OF THE 21ST CENTURY WORLD ORDER:

IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN
Hassan Farooq,Muhammad Khan & Sidra Khan

Abstract
The rise and fall of the great powers is one of the key driving forces
of international politics. At the dawn of the 20 th century, Pax-
Britannica was the center of international politics but the 21 st
century unveiled with Pax-Americana as the pivot of global politics,
where the US emerged as an uncontested hegemon of the unipolar
world system. However, in its overstretched hegemonic
commitments and hyper-power mania, the American economy
bitterly suffered. Ultimately the rising powers especially, China,
launched an enterprise to realign the contemporary world system
to anything but the unipolar world. Pakistan, though not a
claimant of the great power status; yet its geostrategic location in
the South-West Asian heartland, awards it significance in the
foreign policy goals of global powers. It is anticipated that in the
changing global system, Pakistan would have an unavoidable
relevance due to reciprocated relations with the US, growing ties
with Russia and lasting strategic partnership with China.
Keywords: Unipolar, Unilateralist, Multipolar, Declinism,
Triumphalism

Introduction

T
he cycle of rise and fall among the great powers is one of the major
driving forces of transition in the global system. During the 20th
century, the overall world order transformed from multipolarity to
bipolarity and in the end to unipolar construction. Since the dawn of the
21st century, the US-led hegemonic world system has been consistently
challenged by the rising powers that are dissatisfied and striving for the


Visiting Faculty, Department of Politics & IR, International Islamic University,
Islamabad. Email: [email protected]

Professor at the Department of Politics & International Relations, International
Islamic University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected]

PhD Scholar at School of Politics & IR in Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.
Email: [email protected]
20 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

transition of world order to multipolar or multicentric international

system. Amid this confrontational situation, a developing state like
Pakistan, for its highly significant geostrategic position and the rapidly
emerging new dynamics of international politics, can certainly have
substantial implications in the future world system.
During the bipolar world, the United States and the Soviet Union,
the leaders of Capitalist and Communist blocks, confronted each other in
maintaining balance of power. However, after disintegration of the former
Soviet Union, the US, in unipolar world order, relished an uncontested
worldwide hegemony and there were not any serious calculations coming
from any of its potential challengers. Washington aimed at enjoying the
political, economic and strategic remunerations of its supremacy that was
not only confessed but hailed by majority of states, including its traditional
rivals. Kurt Andersen maintains that obviously the best decade ever in the
recent American history was the 1990s,1 the era of its “unipolar moment.”
The United States economy grew incredibly by displaying major drop in
unemployment and poverty, in addition to around 1.7 million annual job
opportunities and four percent annual growth rate.2
However, since the dawn of the 21st century, in its unilateralist
approach and ambitious undertakings of hyper power, the US could not
escape bearing massive political, economic and military encumbrances.3
Eventually, the United States could not avoid the marks of its declinism
from hegemonic triumphalism.4 Simultaneously, the rising great powers
are also striving to reshape the contemporary world system. Hence, the
nature of engagement amid the emerging great powers and the declining
superpower is deliberated as the pivot of 21st century world order, where
strategically sanctified state like Pakistan may also come across serious
challenges and solemn opportunities.

Theoretical Framework
The transformation of world order is a highly complex issue that
demands an in depth study of international relations paradigms. The
realist theory is certainly pertinent in analyzing the dynamics of world

1 Kurt Andersen, "The Best Decade Ever? The 1990s, Obviously," The New York
Times, February 6, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/08/
opinion/sunday/the-best-decade-ever-the-1990s-obviously.html
2 James Pethokoukis, “Explaining the 1990s Economic Boom- Before Hillary
Does,”AEIdeas, February 12, 2015, http://www.aei.org/publication/
explaining-1990s-economic-boom-hillary/
3 John Ikenberry, "Getting Hegemony Right: Analysis of the United States as a
‘Hyper Power’ Nation," The National Interest, 63, (Spring 2001), http://www.
findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_2001_Spring/ai/
4 David Calleo, "Hegemony and Decline: Reflections on Recent American
Experience," Sens Public (2005): 2-8.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 21

order and the role of great powers in maintaining or challenging the global
system. The realist thinkers emphasize the quest of power, as being an
inexorable driving force of states’ undertakings in the international
politics. In the past few decades the rapidly rising China has been
maximizing its overall national power that is undeniably a serious concern
for the American establishment in Washington and the Pentagon as well as
a great challenge to its global hegemony, particularly in the Asia-Pacific
region.5 On the other hand the US is also confronting some serious
challenges as the internal drivers of its declining hegemony like trade
deficit, depreciating dollar and growing defense spending.6 The interplay
amid the declining hegemon and the emerging great powers would be the
pivot of the future world order.
The discourse of hegemonic powers and their roles in the world
order also validates the hegemonic stability theory (HST), which upholds
that the presence of a capable and committed hegemon in the global
system usually results order and stability.7 The HST maintains that the
hegemon helps in articulating and administering the rules of engagement
among the key stakeholders of the global system. However, this argument
better suits unipolarity, since in the bipolar and multipolar systems this
paradigm falls short of substantial elucidation. At the same time, the
Chinese claim for peaceful rise and lack of sizable empirical evidence of its
capability and commitment for hegemonic designs also direct the debate
from the hegemonic model to the power driven realist model.
However, the Sino-US enormous trade ties, their commitments to
the key international organizations and the engagement of Pakistan with
both the great powers also warrant relevance of the complex
interdependence theory. The US and China are key strategic players in the
Indian Ocean as well as Asia-Pacific region and despite their strategic
rivalries the two great powers are the world’s largest trading partners.8
The China’s drive of investing billions of dollars worldwide investment
and economic assistance plans for Pakistan also certifies the applicability
of complex interdependence paradigm. Hence, the interplay of these
triangulated relations amid the great powers – the US and China – and the
developing country like Pakistan, entails greater diversity and complexity.

5 Christopher Layne,"Avoiding a Sino-American Confrontation," Atlantisch

Perspectief 39, no. 4 (2015): 3-8.
6 Kalim Siddiqui, "The US Dollar and the World Economy: A Critical
Review," Athens Journal of Business & Economics 6, no. 1 (2020): 21-44.
7 Duncan Snidal, "The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory," International
Organization (1985): 579-614.
8 Hassan Farooq, and Muhammad Khan, "Sino-Russian Role in the 21st Century
World Order," Central Asia 86, no. Summer (2020): 29-49.
22 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Pakistan’s Relevance in the Transforming World Order

Ever since the dawn of the 21st century, the rising players, mainly
China and Russia, have been looking for the opportunities of maximizing
their power and ultimately challenging the American supremacy. The
geostrategic worth of some of the middle-rank states may also render
them greater relevance in the future world system. Pakistan, though
neither a claimant nor ambitious of great power status, still its
geostrategic significance has generally been inescapable for the global
powers. As a result of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, millions
of Afghans fled to Pakistan making it the base camp for American weapons
and proxy war instruments against the Soviets. Thousands of guerilla
fighters from around the world were trained and transported into
Afghanistan as mujahedeen and more than 80 percent of the coalition
supplies reached Afghanistan through Pakistan.9 However, after the
withdrawal of the Russian troops, Washington withdrew its military and
economic assistance from Islamabad. In the post 9/11 era, once again
Pakistan was awarded with the title of “frontline state” of the US-led ‘War
on Terror’ campaign in Afghanistan.10 The economic and military
assistance of Pakistan was not only restored but increased by manifold.11
In regards to the future world system, the geostrategic position of
Pakistan in the South-West Asian heartland, a region connecting the
world’s population and energy hubs at its West and East, renders the
country a greater degree of significance. Recent developments in the
region like; the Sino-Indian border clashes at the Line of Actual Control
(LAC), the American drawdown from Afghanistan and its talks with
Taliban, the growing tensions in the Middle East and China’s drive of
expanding its transnational influence; have charmed Pakistan at the center
stage of regional dynamics among the great powers. The United States has
repeatedly expressed its expectation that Pakistan’s assistance is
inexorable in pursuing the American interests in the region, particularly in
the Kabul peace process. The rising power, China, also understands that its
strategic ties with Pakistan can play a vital role in projecting China’s future
goals in the region and also world over.12
With the changing geopolitics and growing conflicts of interests

9 Bruce Riedel, "Pakistan’s Role in the Afghanistan War's Outcome," The

Economist (2010).
10 Lubna Sunawar, "Pakistan as a Frontline State in War against Terrorism: Cost
& Benefit Analysis," Journal of Political Studies, Vol. 22, Issue 1, (2015): 43.
11 Aid to Pakistan by the Numbers, “Pakistan: US Development Strategy,” Center
for Global Development, https://www.cgdev.org/page/aid-pakistan-numbers
12 Raymond Lee, “The Strategic Importance of Chinese-Pakistani Relations,” Al
Jazeera Centre for Studies, 2016, https://studies.aljazeera.net/sites/
default/files/articles/reports/documents/9b022a8c6ca84fda83be016f0376
d27f_100.pdf.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 23

amid the United States, China and Russia, the Sino-Russian nexus, the Sino-
US global trade war along with other major developments in the region
would surge Pakistan’s relevance. Therefore, Islamabad needs to be
extremely careful in handling the complexities of transition from the
American hegemonic triumphalism13 to a world of multiple power centers.

Dynamics of the Future World Order

On the basis of comprehensive analyses of different variables of
power, the economic indicators, military statistics and political sway, this
study endeavours to determine the top rank global players and their role
in the future world system. The United States and China are projected as
the great powers in the 21st century world order. Pakistan’s engagement
with these powers shall award it a greater relevance due to its lasting and
varied engagement with the US, growing ties with Russia and enduring
strategic partnership with the rising great power, China.
Global Economies
Historical assessment of global politics reveals that once a state
attains economic supremacy, it ultimately undertakes for military
dominance. Prior to its military ascendance and hegemonic enterprise, the
United States continued as the largest global economy for decades.14
Christopher Layne argues that almost all the great powers repeat the same
rising pattern; likewise in future world system, China would also be
ultimately rejuvenated by its exceptional economic growth and huge share
in global trade to establish its military dominance at the regional and global
levels.15 Eventually, Beijing would also be striving for a significant shift in
the global balance of power to a multipolar world order.
Figure 1: An Outline of the Great Power Rise Pattern

Source: Christopher Layne, "After the Fall: U.S. Grand Strategy After the Pax-
Americana

13 David Calleo,"Hegemony and Decline: Reflections on Recent American

Experience," Sens public (2005).
14 Joseph S Nye, “The Future of Power,” Public Affairs, (2011).
15 Christopher Layne, "This Time it's Real: The End of Unipolarity and the Pax
Americana," International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 1 (2012): 203-213.
24 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Gross Domestic Products

GDP is the measure of inclusive monetary or market assessment of
the overall finished goods, products and services of certain state. It is the
vital indicator of the all-inclusive scorecard of economic health of the
country. The World Bank highlights the following countries as the world’s
largest economies by 2018
Table 1: Top Ten GDPs in 201816
Ranking Country US$ Billions Ranking Country US$ Billions
1 USA 20,494.10 6 France 2,777.50
2 China 13,608.20 7 India 2,726.30
3 Japan 4,970.90 8 Italy 2,073.90
4 Germany 3,996.80 9 Brazil 1,868.60
5 UK 2,825.20 10 Canada 1,709.30
Source: World Development Indicators Database 2018, ‘World Bank’.
The combined GDP of the European Union is US Dollar 18,749
Billion.17 Once pooled together, the EU accounts for the world’s second
largest economic power center. Hence, overall statistics reveal that the US,
EU, China and Japan are the Group of Four (G-4) economic power centers
of the world.
Table 2: Comparison of Top Nominal GDPs (2019-23)18

Source: World Development Indicators Database 2018, ‘World Bank’

The global GDPs ranking may change substantially in future.
Maintaining their current growth, the emerging economies of Asia may
exceed the world’s top players. The International Monetary
Funds (IMF) maintains that from 2019 to 2023; the US, EU, China
and Japan world’s top four (G-4) GDPs19. However, in terms of Purchasing
Power Parity (PPP) the G-3 economies would be China, US and India

16 “World Development Indicators Database 2018,” World Bank, 2018,

http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
17
Ibid.
18 Ibid.
19 “World Economic Outlook Database,” International Monetary Fund,
Washington DC (October, 2018), https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/
weo/2018/02/weodata/index.aspx.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 25

respectively.20
Table 3: Comparison of Top 10 GDPs PPP (2019-23)21
Current 2019 Percent Share Projected GDP in Projected
Country
Ranking (US$B) in Global GDP 2023 (US$B) Ranking
China 1 27,449 19.2 37,198 1
USA 2 21,482 15 24,671 2
India 3 11,413 7.98 16,575 3
Japan 4 5,807 4.06 6,380 4
Germany 5 4,555 3.18 5,184 5
Russia 6 4,345 3.04 4,966 7
Indonesia 7 3,753 2.62 4,969 6
Brazil 8 3,524 2.46 4,149 8
UK 9 3,145 2.2 3,609 9
France 10 3,081 2.15 3,541 10
Source: “World Economic Outlook Database,” International Monetary
Fund, (October, 2018)
The indicators of Gross Domestic Products certainly verify that in
terms of both gauges, the nominal and PPP, majority of global economic
players will remain the same in future decades. Obviously, the United
States and China would maintain their position as being the two economic
superpowers or G-2 economies in the 21st century world system. These
two economic giants would be predominantly succeeded by the emerging
economies, predominantly those from Asia.
Table 4: Comparison of the Largest GDPs (PPP)
between 2017 &203022

Source: Desjardins Jeff, World’s Largest Economies in 2030, Visual

capitalist (2019)

Global Trades
The volume of global trade is a vital indicator of overall economic
status of a country. Countries having major share in global trade enjoy

20 Ibid.
21 Ibid.
22 Jeff Desjardins, “World’s Largest Economies in 2030,” Visual Capitalist,
January 11, 2019, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-largest-10-
economies-2030/
26 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

stronger influence in the international politics. In the globalized world,

geo-economics has overturned geopolitics. Interstate ties mainly aim at
enhancing transnational trade; and complex political issues among
competing nations are overlooked for attracting trades. Besides numerous
conflicts, China maintains massive trade with the US, India and Japan.
The United States has since long been holding the title of the
largest global economy and a prominent trade player, by earning around
20 percent of the world’s overall income.23A famous American financial
group, The Balance, indicates that in 2019 the United States’ trade valued
around US$ 5.6 Trillion; out of that US$ 2.5 Trillion are exports and US$
3.1 Trillion imports.24 According to the Observatory of Economic
Complexity (OEC), United States accounts for the 3rd largest exports and the
2nd largest imports in the world.25
Table 5: American Exports and Imports (1995-2017) US$ Billion26
3000

2000

1000
EXPO…
0 IMPOR…
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

2014
2015
2016
2017
2003

2013
Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity, USA (2017)

China’s growth rate and international trade displayed were

exceptional rise in past three decades. The key indicator of its economic
boom is the progressively rising volume of exports, making China the
world’s largest export economy. The OEC report 2017 indicated that
Beijing maintained around US$ 4 trillion exports and US$ 1.54 trillion
imports, the world’s 2nd largest importer.

23 Kimberly Amadeo, “Their Risks Derivatives, and their Rewards,” The Balance,
March 21, 2019,https://www.thebalance.com/swap-line-definition-purpose-
examples-3305966.
24 Kimberly Amadeo, “US Trade Deficit by Country, With Current Statistics and
Issues: Why America Cannot Just Make Everything It Needs,” The Balance,
February 10, 2020,https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-imports-and-exports-
components-and-statistics-3306270.
25 OEC, United States, Observatory of Economic Complexity,
2017,https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa/.
26 Ibid.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 27

Table 6: Chinese Exports and Imports 1995 – 2017 (US$ Billion)27

Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity, China (2018).

European Union is a major player in the overall world trade;

however certain variations can be noted in its global trade data. The
‘World’s Top Exports’ indicates that in 2018, the combined EU’s exports
were Dollar 6.445 Trillion, accounting for around 37 percent share of the
international trade.28
There is certain second tier of global economies in various
regions of the world, particularly from Asia are consistently striving for
their key roles in the international economic order and the overall global
system. These players may not surpass the G-3 economies, yet they may
have certain role in coming decades. India’s growth remained highly
promising in last few decades. It was estimated that by 2030, it may
overturn Japan and the US. However, according to the official figures of
Indian Ministry of Statistics and Program implementation, the country’s
economy is facing severe challenges; with sharp decline in growth from
2016 and lowest since 2013.29

27 OEC, China, Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2018,

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/china/, last accessed December 19,
2020.
28 Daniel Workman, World's Top Exports, 2018, http://www.worldstopexports.
com/category/countries/european-exporters, last accessed December 19,
2020.
29 Government of India, “Trading Economics; Ministry of Statistics and Program
Implementation,” http://www.mospi.gov.in/slider/graph-1, last accessed
December 19, 2020.
28 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Table 7: Indian GDP Growth (2016 - 2019)30

Source: Government of India: Trading Economics, Ministry of Statistics

and Program implementation

Overall Assessment of the Global Economies

Comprehensive analysis of global economies specifies that China,
USA and EU are the G-3 economic powers. Though American hegemony is
declining; yet it will continue as a great power. China is aggressively
challenging the American status-quo by exporting trillions of dollars as
investment throughout the world to maximize its overall global power and
influence. The Sino-EU economic interdependence, particularly through
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can play vital role in shifting the pivot of
global system from the “West” to the “East” or the “Rest”.31 Hence, the
likelihood of transition in the contemporary international system to a
multipolar or multicentric world order in 21st century is quite
understandable.
Global Military Powers
Military might is the most significant aspect of national power; out
of all its forms, none is more crucial than military clout of a country. Since,
countries with strong militaries certainly enjoy greater security and
stability; while weaker states are always at the mercy of their powerful
neighbors and rivals. Military advantage helps in neutralizing the hostility
of aggressors and reducing the contenders in international power politics.
Expansion of military power, as stated by the realist school of
thought, has been the essence of rising to the great power status. Several
weaker nations confronted ruination; since military power was the most
dominant parameter of national power. In the modern liberal
international system, the traditional phenomenon of power balancing
related to just mounting the military arsenal has predominantly been
overtaken by new trends, as provoked by the Neorealists that states
maximize and utilize power to counterweight their rivals.

30 Ibid.
31 Fareed Zakaria, "The Post-American World," The New York Times, May 6,
2008, https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/books/chapters/books.html
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 29

Military consolidation marks states as global powers. However,

certain great powers eventually faced destabilization for their excessive
militarization; for disproportionately allocated resources to forces
undermined the other components of national power; like the USSR. On
the contrary, failure in military investments has failed the great powers in
confronting their rivals; like, France nosedived in counterbalancing the
German power and lost its control over Europe in the 19th and 20th
centuries.32 Comprehensive details of the global militaries are mentioned
below.

United States
The ‘Global Fire Power’, reports that out of 138 countries, USA is
the world’s strongest military power33. Apart from the primary objective
of defending USA from internal or external threats; its armed forces are
meant to protect the Americans, their worldwide interests and their allies.
The US forces ensure the freedom of international waters and airspace;
simultaneously undertaking numerous contingencies in various parts of
the world.
United States is the largest defense spender with US$ 750 Billion,
300 percent higher than China’s (2nd rank) and 700 percent higher than
Russia’s defense budgets.34 Having unique geography between the Atlantic
and Pacific; with 9,826,675 km2 area; 12,000 km borders and 20,000 km
coastline; the US maintains one of the world’s largest militaries with 2.26
million personnel.35 The US army maintains 6,417 attack helicopters (1st
rank), 400 percent more than Russia; 8,725 tanks and around 10,000
nuclear weapons.36
The United States also maintains the world’s largest airpower with
around; 13,400 aircrafts (quarter of the world) and 13,500 airports.37 The
US has 800 military bases around the world, several times more than the
collective bases of its competitors.38 The American Navy is among the

32 Michael Howard, “The Franco-Prussian War: The German Invasion of France

1870–1871,” Routledge, 2013.
33 “Military Strength Ranking,”Global Fire Power, 2020,
https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?
country_id=united-states-of-america, last accessed December 19, 2020.
34 Ibid.
35 Ibid.
36 Ibid.
37 Ibid.
38 David Vine, “Base Nation: How U.S. Military Bases Abroad Harm America and
the World,” Metropolitan, 2015;David Vine, “List of US Military Bases Abroad,”
2017, American University, http://dx.doi.org/10.17606/M6H599; John
Glaser, “Withdrawing from Overseas Bases: Why a Forward-Deployed
Military Posture Is Unnecessary, Outdated, and Dangerous,” Policy Analysis
816, CATO Institute, July 18, 2017;Frank Jacobs, “The World’s Five Military
30 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

world’s largest fleets with 415 ships; 68 submarines, 24 aircraft carriers

and overall 33 major ports.39
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports
that United States is the largest arms exporter in the world with around 36
percent share in global arms exports.40 By 2018, the American firms
received orders of around 900 fighter aircrafts, more than half of the
world’s jet sales.41
Russia
Traditionally, the Russian military has remained one of the most
overriding powers throughout the world, predominantly since last two
centuries. Geographically, Russia is the world’s largest country, having
17,098,242 km2 area; 22,408 km borders and a coastline of 37,653 km.42
Moscow maintains one of the most powerful forces; around 3.6 million
personnel; and the leading stocks of nuclear weapons in the world.43
According to SIPRI; the Russian military spending in 2018 were
US$B 61.4 (world’s 6th highest).44 However, Michael Kofman argues that
Russian defense spending is actually US$B 150-180 (world’s 3rd largest)
several times higher than the declared amount and enough to undermine
the collective defense expenditures of major EU states.45
Russia has the world’s highest number (21,932) of tanks, 300
percent higher than the US; and around 50,000 armored fighting vehicles.
It has one of the world’s strongest air forces; 4,078 military aircrafts and
1,218 airports.46 Russian Navy maintains one of the world’s largest fleets;

Empires,” Big Think, July 10, 2017, http://bigthink.com/strange-maps/the-

worlds-five-military-empires; Damien Sharkov, “Russia’s Military Compared
to the U.S.” Newsweek, June 8, 2018, http://www.newsweek.com/russias-
military-compared-us-which-country-has-moremilitary-bases-across-954328
39 Military Strength Ranking, “Global Fire Power, 2019,”
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
40 “World Military Expenditure Grows to $1.8 Trillion in 2018,”Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute, https://www.sipri.org/media/press-
release/2019/world-military-expenditure-grows-18-trillion-2018
41 Frederic S. Pearson, “The Global Spread of Arms: Political Economy of
International Security,” Routledge, 2018.
42 Military Strength Ranking, Global Fire Power, 2019.
43 Ibid.
44 Wezeman, Fleurant, Kuimova, Tian and Wezeman, “Trends in International
Arms Transfers, 2018,”SIPRI Fact Sheet, March, 2019,
https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-03/fs_1903_at_2018.pdf.
45 Michal Kofman,”Russian Defense Spending is Much Larger and more
Sustainable than it seems,” Defense News, May 3,
2019,https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2019/05/03/ru
ssian-defense-spending-is-much-larger-and-more-sustainable-than-it-seems/
46 Military Strength Ranking, Global Fire Power, 2019.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 31

around 600 ships, 62 submarines and only one aircraft carrier.47 Being the
2nd largest arms exporter, Russia shipped military products of Dollar 14.5
Billion (around 21 percent of global arms trade) in the year 2015.48 In
terms of military statistics, in majority of other comparisons, Russia
maintains either second or third place at the international level.
The current president Vladimir Putin aims to reinstate Russia as a
global power, which is indispensable to restructure the American-led
unipolar system.49 The Russian military power is on the rise and unlike the
Cold War, it is emphasizing at the notion of smaller but better forces,
maintaining more mobility and highly balanced approach, which is
speedily becoming more proficient in handling the wide ranging modern
warfare tactics. The Russian military forces are not only capable of
intervening in countries of its periphery, but they are also skilled to
operate far away in the Middle East.50
The Russian operation for annexing Crimea in 2014; its political
mobilization as well as combat move in Eastern Ukraine; and finally the
will and pace of the Russian troops in Syrian operation; startled the entire
world. These engagements are highly significant illustrations of Moscow’s
future designs and its ambitions for leading role in the 21st century
multipolar world order.51
China
The demography of China is exceptional; having the world’s largest
population and standing army with 1,385 and 2.7 million respectively.
China covers 9.6 mil km2 area, 22,457 km borders, 14,500 km coastline,
about 500 airports.52 Since the beginning of 21st century, China has
focused upon the expansion and modernization of Peoples Liberation
Army (PLA) with 10 percent annual hike in its defense budget.53 However,
correct numbers of its military spending have mostly been questioned; as
in 2018 its official defense budget was US$B 170, but certain estimations
expressed it around Dollar 239 Billion.54

47 Ibid.
48 Richard Connolly and Sendstad Cecilie, “Russia's Role as an Arms Exporter: The
Strategic and Economic Importance of Arms Exports for Russia,” Chatham
House, 2017.
49 Vladimir Frolov, “Putin Seeks Entente Cordiale with the West,” Opinion: The
Moscow Times, November 24, 2015, http://www.themoscowtimes.com.
50 Ibid.
51 Ibid.
52 Military Strength Ranking, Global Fire Power, 2019
53 Russia Power Military, "Building a Military to Support Great Power
Aspirations," Defense Intelligence (2017).
54 China Power Team, "What does China Really Spend on its Military?" Center for
Strategic and International Studies 28 (2015), https://chinapower.
csis.org/military-spending/
32 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

China’s armed forces are equipped with 13,000 tanks and 3,187
military aircrafts, 2nd and 3rd largest in the world.55 China has been
maintaining one of the biggest and recklessly growing navies around the
world. A former US Navy officer admits that once absolutely dominant in
the Far-East region, currently the American ships sails very guardedly in
the yellow waters.56 The PLA naval fleet has been belligerently
modernized to defend China’s interests in the region and also to encounter
the serious challenges of the 21st century politics.
The rapid rise of China is also driving the PLA to follow the strategy of
modernization and indigenization. The Chinese military industry is
fulfilling its own defense requirements and it is also exporting range of
military equipment to other developing nations like, Pakistan to earn
revenue and also expand its political influence.

Analyses of Global Military Powers

Throughout the 20th century, the United States remained the world’s
most decisive military power. Any actor, intending to rupture the
American interests or disrupt the overall world order had to bear the
ferocity of the US military. Nonetheless, at the dawn of the 21st century, the
American hegemony is no more simply inalienable. The additional
engagements incurred by the self-imposed American commitments
ultimately overburdened its economy and military. Simultaneously, the US
has to confront; the emerging military powers, China and Russia; and their
growing military influence in various regions. These military giants are
massively pressurizing the US to spend more on its military for
maintaining its hegemony.
In the contemporary system, a great deal of disparity can be found
in the military powers of the leading global actors. Majority of variables
ascertain that the US military power is unparalleled; its defense spending
is higher than that of the combined military budgets of eight succeeding
armed forces.57 Conversely, China has speedily arisen as a new potential
rival to the American military muscles, predominantly in Asia-Pacific as
well as the Indian Ocean. Beijing has increased its defense spending by
manifold, since the dawn of the 21st century. Russia also holds one of the
world’s strongest and modern armed forces, capable of proving its power
in the region and away.

55 Military Strength Ranking, Global Fire Power, 2019.

56 David Lague, and Benjamin Kang Lim, “The Chinese Challenge, Ruling the
Waves:China’s Vast Fleet is Tipping the Balance in the Pacific,” Reuters, April
30, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-
navy/
57 Wezeman, Fleurant, Kuimova, Tian and Wezeman,”Trends in International
Arms Transfers,” 2018.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 33

Even in the contemporary globalized world military power is still

inevitable. Majority of the World powers have been consistently increasing
their military spending. In 2018, the global defense outlay grew 2.6
percent as compared to the preceding year, with total volume of US$B
1822 and 76 percent increase in global defense budget between 1988 and
2018.58 The two largest global economies are the highest military
spenders too. Nonetheless, United States, China and Russia are the world’s
strongest military powers.
Since the dawn of 21st century, Beijing and Moscow have
strengthened their strategic alignment. These Eurasian powers have stark
differences with the US on various issues in different regions of the world.
China and Russia have constructed an underlying empathy on challenging
the worldwide American hegemony. The United States seems offcolor; for
the Trump regime is more focused on internal issues than the global
commitments. From Brussels, the NATO’s headquarters, signals for the US
are least promising, after conflicts with Turkey over the Syrian crisis. 59
Germany and France, NATO’s key players, also have differences with USA
on various global issues.

Second Tier of Military Powers

Other than three military giants; France, UK and Germany are also
among the most modern military powers. They can win further eminence,
if pooled together as NATO members, though loosely connected.
Quantitatively, these armed forces may lag behind the US, China and
Russia; but qualitatively they are highly robust and equipped with most
lethal weapons. The combined militaries of EU states will constitute a
robust force and an indispensible great military power. However,
Europeans have already constituted NATO, led by the US. Secondly, in case
the Europeans withdraw from NATO for establishing their EU’s military
component like, the European Parliament, there would be a leadership
issue; as EU has already faced Brexit; after UK’s withdrawal.60
Several other players also exert for their key roles in international
power politics. Some of this second tier of military powers; India, Brazil
and Saudi Arabia; statistically stand among the largest militaries; while
few others like, Pakistan, have unavoidable geostrategic significance.
India, in some studies is projected as an emerging power.
However, qualitative analysis of Indian military reveals obsolescence,
particularly after its jets were shot down by Pakistan in February 2019.

58 Ibid.
59 “Turkey-Syria Offensive: US Sanctions Turkish Ministries,” BBC, October 15,
2019.
60 “Brexit: The UK has Officially Left the EU: What Happens Next?” BBC, January
31, 2020.
34 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The New York Times labeled the Indian military equipment as “vintage”.61
The NYT also highlighted that its forces are facing grave challenges; for
losing fighter planes to a country whose military is too small in numbers
and expenditures.62 Gaurav Gogoi, a lawmaker and a member of India’s
Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defense, highlights that Indian
troops lack modern equipment.63
India is also facing regional and domestic challenges. Owing to a
stark ethnic assortment in India, clashes between fundamentalist Hindus
and the minorities are often reported. Reportedly, in some cases violence
against minorities by Hindu extremists is supported by major political
parties in the country, particularly the present administration of Narendra
Modi and his political wing Bharatiya Janata Party are blamed.64 The
United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, in 2019,
reported the happenings of forced religious conversions, cases of hate
crimes and provocation to violence against a number of religious
minorities. The USCIRF report also maintains that the situation for these
Indian minorities has dramatically deteriorated.65
Freedom movements in Indian held Kashmir and in different parts
of the country are also serious issues. The people of this region have been
consistently demanding for their legitimate and repeatedly promise right
of self-determination since the era of partition of Indian-Subcontinent.66
The special status of Kashmir through Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian
constitution has been repealed by Modi’s regime since the August 2019;
and since then the state of Kashmir has been kept under the military
control.67 The Sikhs community of India has also been dissatisfied with

61 Maria Abi-Habib, “After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise

about its ‘Vintage’ Military,” The New York Times, March 3, 2019,
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/world/asia/india-military-united-
states-china.html
62 Ibid.
63 Ibid.
64 Paul Marshall, “Hinduism and Terror,”Hudson Institute, June 1,
2004,https://www.hudson.org/research/4575-hinduism-and-terror
65 Tier 2 India “United States Commission on International Religious Freedom
Annual Report 2019,” USCIRF, Annual Report, 2019,
https://www.uscirf.gov/reports-briefs/annual-report/2019-annual-report.
66 Muhammad Mumtaz, "Right of Self Determination for Kashmiri People; an
International Law Perspective," International Journal of Business, Economics
and Law 1 (2012).
67 Mehari Taddele Maru, “A New Cold War in Africa: Increasing Tensions
between China and the US will be Detrimental to African Prosperity and
Peace,”Aljazeera (Opinion/China), July 1, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com
/indepth/opinion/cold-war-africa-190630102044847.html
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 35

behaviour of radical Hindu elements and it has been traditionally

demanding for an independent territory, “Khalistan.”68
Despite being a major player, India could not establish its
leadership role in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC); due to acceptability problem. India has several conflicts with
majority of the countries in the region. There have been several territorial
conflicts between China and India; the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan
and India is one of the most debated issues of the world; while India also
confronts numerous water and border issues with Bangladesh and
Nepal.69 So the Indian designs of being a great power are overshadowed by
various challenges it is facing at the domestic and regional levels.

Global Political Powers

Global political powers or the great powers are the most influential
international players. Countries with huge economies and overriding
militaries also exercise political dominance. Another highly significant
instrument of international power politics is the possession of Vito Power
or permanent seat in United Nations Security Council. Hence, the US,
China, Russia and EU (by virtue of Vito power of France and UK) are the
major political centers worldover.70
Among the veto powers, the US indisputably clenches a distinct
position. Since, so far it has been the only global power that is capable and
committed to play its dominant role to ensure the overall world order.
Other three players certainly play their role in streamlining the world
system; but for their own interests; and none of them could so for override
the American influence in global power politics.71 However, China is
striving to expand its influence in various regions of the world by
employing global trade and massive offshore investments as the
instruments of political power, predominantly after launching its 1990s
"Go Out" strategy.72

68 Muhmmad Iqbal Chawla, "The Khalistan Movement of 1984: A Critical

Appreciation," South Asian Studies (1026-678X) 32, No. 1 (2017).
69 Afshana Parven & MS Hasan, "Trans-boundary Water Conflicts between
Bangladesh and India: Water Governance Practice for Conflict
Resolution," International Journal of Agricultural Research, Innovation and
Technology 8, no. 1 (2018): 79-84.
70 Frans-Paul van der Putten, Jan Rood & Minke Meijnders, "Great Powers and
Global Stability," Clingendael Monitor, 2016 https://www.
Clingendael,org/sites/default/files/pdfs/clingendael_monitor, 2016-
great_powers_and_global_stability-eng_0. pdf (2016).
71 Ibid.
72 Mehari Taddele Maru, “A New Cold War in Africa: Increasing Tensions
between China and the US will be Detrimental to African Prosperity and
Peace,”Aljazeera (Opinion/China), July 1, 2019.
36 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The 21st Century World Order and the

American Hegemonic Declinism
Relations between the axes of global powers always have an
impact on world order; it will certainly influence the future world order.
The US-EU Transatlantic engagement remained the pivot of global politics
in unipolar system; nonetheless, the core of 21st century world order
would be the nature of Sino-US engagement.73 On the contrary, the Sino-
Russian axis would be another critical aspect of the multipolar world; as
the strategic partnership aims at advancing their worldwide influence and
challenging the US hegemony at various forums. They have a resolve to
effectively contest the American unilateralism and institute a balanced
multilateral world order. Obviously, the most curious angle of this system
would be the simultaneous presence of cooperation and conflict; and
economic interdependence will be the core of Sino-US relations. The
degree of cooperation and conflict amid great powers shall primarily
govern the future world order.
From the American hegemonic triumphalism to declinism is taken
to be as the core of the 21st century world order. This hegemonic decline
would mainly revolve around three hypotheses; the “crying wolf”
symptoms, the “bionic man” syndrome and the analogy to classical
“Roman Empire”74 Perhaps the “crying wolf” is the most critical notion,
disturbing those who negate declinism. However, others strongly believe
that indeed the “wolf” (China) has definitely arrived with its flamboyant
entry on the global political theater. The “bionic man” syndrome is also
based on opposing arguments between; those optimistic about the future
American role and those eying at the rising great powers to redraw the
outline of the 21st century world order.75
A renowned anti-declinist, Joseph S. Nye maintains that the US
decline would be analogous to that of the “Roman Empire.” 76 He argues
that just like the classical Roman Empire, the US decline would not occur
radically, but it would be slow and steady. The profound counter argument
is that Rome had no great power in opposition. Unlike the Roman; but very
much like the British empire that did not take much longer to decline in
early 20th century; the US as the leading but weakening hegemon is facing
serious challengers; especially China and Russia; and therefore its decline
may not take too long. However, despite its hegemonic decline, the United
States would still survive as a key international player of the global
system.

73 Frans-Paul van der Putten, Jan Rood & Minke Meijnders, 2016.
74 Amitav Acharya, “The End of American World Order,” John Wiley & Sons, 2018.
75 Ibid.
76 Joseph S. Nye, "Declinist Pundits," Foreign Policy 196 (2012): 64.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 37

The Under-Transition World Order:

Implications for Pakistan
Interstate relations have ever been a complex issue. Historically,
weaker nations had always been at the mercy of imperial powers.
However, with the passage of time, despite their rivalry or competition
states have gradually learnt cooperate each other for mutual gains or
international peace. Hence, the perception of national interests of all
states, stronger or weaker, has become a dominant perception in the
modern globalized system. Therefore, smaller but geographically
significant states like Pakistan have also earned an inexorable position in
international politics.
Figure 2: South-West Asian Heartland-Linking
the World’s Population & Energy Hubs

Source: https://www.infoplease.com/atlas/asia
Pakistan is blessed with a vital geostrategic location in the South-
West Asian heartland. There lives a huge mass of around 2,800 million
people (mainly China & India) in its North-East.77 The North/South-West
of Pakistan is the energy rich Central Asian and the Gulf regions; and any
foreseeable transit between the world’s population and energy hubs shall
pass through Pakistani territory.
Owing to highly significant geostrategic location, since its existence
in 1947, Pakistan has customarily been a part of the foreign policy goals of
the great powers. It a well-known fact that Henry Kissinger’s renowned
visit to Beijing in early 1970s could materialized only through the
diplomatic involvement of Islamabad. As a result of the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, eventually Pakistan also felt threatened by the so called
expansionist designs of Moscow.78 However, the United States and its

77 “Current World Population,” World of Meters, https://www.worldometers.

info/world-population/
78 Geoffrey Warner, "Nixon, Kissinger and the Rapprochement with China,
1969–1972," International Affairs 83, no. 4 (2007): 763-781.
38 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Western allies supported the guerrilla fighters in the first Afghan war,
making Pakistan effectively a basecamp of weapons and warriors for
jihadists against the Soviet forces.79 Again the post 9/11 ‘War on Terror’
marked Pakistan as the front line state and non-NATO ally of the US.
Therefore, Islamabad’s engagement with global powers and its role in the
international power politics has mostly been unavoidable.

Pakistan-US Complex Engagement

Islamabad and Washington have the decades-long history of
inescapable but perplexed relations, where the two actors always holding
a demand-lists in their mutual interactions. The earlier has been the on-
and-off necessity of the later at the time of various critical circumstances
in the region. On the contrary, Washington has been the economic and
defense assistance destination of Islamabad.80 In their current
engagement, the United States expects that Pakistan shall play a key role in
convincing Taliban for talks; while Islamabad hopes that Washington must
support it in resolving the long outstanding issue of Kashmir. The Sino-US
growing tension may also demand in future that Pakistan must play its
bridging role between the contenders, like it did in the past.81

Pakistan-China Strategic Ties

The two neighbors have friendly ties and strategic partnership;
ready to support each other at the global forums and also in internal
challenges. Beijing has always helped Islamabad in building; energy,
infrastructure and strategic installations; while the later has also
supported the earlier in its odd times, particularly in the early decades of
China’s isolation. Pakistan is the chief exports destination of Chinese
defense products. The CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), worth
billions of dollars investment and thousands of jobs, is the trademark of
strategic and economic ties between the two nations. China aims to
develop its western regions through CPEC, the shortest possible access to
the Indian Ocean for its global trade.
In the South-West of Pakistan, Gwadar Port lies at the outskirt of
the Strait of Hormuz; the world’s biggest oil chokepoint and one of the
busiest trade routes in the world; which may turn-out to be the focus of
international politics, as if the tensions ever flare-up in the Middle East.82

79 Richard Sakwa, “The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Union,” Routledge, 2005.
80 Muhammad Hanif, "Pakistan-Russia relations: Progress, Prospects and
Constraints," IPRI Journal 13, no. 2 (2013): 63-86.
81 Ziad Haider, “Could Pakistan Bridge the US-China Divide?” Foreign Policy,
March 25, 2013,https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/03/25/could-pakistan-
bridge-the-u-s-china-divide/
82 “Strait of Hormuz, the World’s Biggest Oil Chokepoint, in Focus as U.S.-Iran
Tensions Flare,” MarketWatch, January 6, 2020,
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 39

The Port is a vital project of the Pak-China geostrategic partnership; and it

may also attract wider significance in the regional and international
perspectives of the future world system, particularly after the rising
criticism against the CPEC from the US and India.83

Pakistan-Russia Growing Ties

The two countries are the members of Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, but have a history of unpromising relations. However,
currently they are heading towards a new era of cooperation. Islamabad
can benefit from Moscow in its defense and energy needs; while in Russia’s
drive of fortifying regional and global influence, the later would like to see
more constructive and result oriented engagement with earlier.84 Pakistan
looks for the Russian investment in CPEC and its other energy and
infrastructure projects; while its counterpart may like wider detachment
between Islamabad and Washington.

Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations
These two countries have historical and cultural relations. The
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the perpetual unrest forced millions of
refugees across the Durand Line that badly affected the socio-economic
fabric of Pakistan. In last four decades, the Afghan peace process has
mostly been considered incomplete without taking Islamabad into
confidence. Therefore, for the future roadmap of Afghanistan, all the
stakeholder, particularly the great powers look towards Pakistan for its
significant role. The authorities in Washington and Kabul also believe that
negotiation with Taliban may not be result-oriented without Pakistan’s
active involvement.

Pakistan-India as Traditional Rivals

Pakistan and India have traditional rivalry of historical, ideological,
territorial, political and economic rifts. Kashmir, cross-border infiltration
and water management are the key issues between them. India, a key
player in South Asia, also has contentions with China; while the two Indian
neighbors have strong strategic ties for decades. Any significant
development in the region may have fallout on Pakistan. The current
escalations in Kashmir valley and the clashes on the Line of Actual Control
(LAC) on the Indo-Chinese border can have spillover effects on the region,

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/strait-of-hormuz-the-worlds-biggest-
oil-chokepoint-in-focus-as-us-iran-tensions-flare-2020-01-03
83 Shreya Talwar, "China–Pakistan Economic Corridor and its Geopolitical
Implications," Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), 2015.
84 Muhammad Hanif, "Pakistan-Russia Relations: Progress, Prospects and
Constraints," IPRI Journal 13, no. 2 (2013): 63-86.
40 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

especially Pakistan. Adopting the strategy of “Kin country syndrome’’ New

Delhi would blame Pakistan for any incident, like it did in the case of
Pulwama attack.85 Tensions amid China-India-Pakistan can spike any time
that may eventually destabilize the whole region and even the entire
world order.
Therefore, Pakistan needs to revisit its customary and predictable
response towards its traditional rival, India. Islamabad ought to have a
logical and calculated retort to the Indian hysterical approach, especially
across the line of control (LOC). It must also capitalize every opportunity
to persuade India for dialogues at every regional and global forum to
resolve all outstanding issues in a peaceful manner.

Pakistan and the Persian Gulf

Pakistan has closer relations with majority of the Gulf States,
particularly Saudi Arabia. Islamabad and Riyadh have supported each
other in several critical times. On the contrary, Iran and Pakistan are
neighbors, having satisfying ties. In the recent past, while tension grew
between Tehran and Riyadh, the two regional competitors in the Gulf,
Islamabad tried to defuse the situation by suggesting negotiations. In case
of any future escalation between the two actors; once again Islamabad
may be expected to play its considerable role in neutralizing the situation,
as conflict in the region would directly and indirectly affect the internal
and external dynamics of Pakistan.

Conclusion
Pakistan is the only country around the world that is having
regional or global powers at its borders. Its traditional rival, India lies in
the East; the rising superpower, China in the North, Russia in the North-
West periphery; the American military bases in Afghanistan; and a Persian
Gulf’s regional power, Iran; are neighboring Pakistan. The strategic worth
of the country is further intensified as it coastlines the Indian Ocean, one of
the main theaters of the 21st century global politics. Such a highly critical
geography renders a vital significance to the country. Since, any crucial
development, positively initiated or negatively triggered, in the region will
certainly have deeper impacts on Pakistan. Hence, multifaceted
engagements of Islamabad with majority of the regional and global players
would certainly establish its vital role in the 21st century world system.
In the 21st century world order; Pakistan, though not a great
power; may still remain on the center stage of international power politics,
particularly due to crucial developments in its region. The contemporary
world system is an era of transition or the age of new developments and

85 Moeed Yusuf, "The Pulwama Crisis: Flirting With War in a Nuclear

Environment," Arms Control Today 49, no. 4 (2019): 6-11.
Pakistan: Dynamics of the 21st Century World Order 41

new alignments. Various global power centers are aiming at new

engagements in different regions of the world. Pakistan is geographically
placed in a highly critical region; where China is rapidly rising and
maximizing its regional and worldwide influence. The existing
superpower, USA, has often expressed its intentions of China’s
containment, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Any belligerence between
the declining and the emerging superpowers would directly affect the
internal and external dynamics of Pakistan.
Therefore, Islamabad has to be extremely careful in its foreign
policy choices, since it may not afford conflicting relations; either with the
US or China and Russia. Pakistan needs to play its cards very intelligently
and it has to maintain a balance in its relations with all the great powers;
particularly with the two most significant among them, the US and China.
42 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

MARITIME CYBERSECURITY: VULNERABILITIES

AND COUNTER MEASURES

Zaheema Iqbal & Muhammad Khurram Khan

Abstract
In the era of technological advancements and digitization, the
security phenomenon encompasses both physical and digital
paradigms. The recent developments in cyber security domain
reveal an increased number of cyberattacks on critical
infrastructures, organizations, and industries. The maritime
industry, being the critical infrastructure of any nation, is no
exception to it, which is also vulnerable to cyberattacks. With
terminals, vessels, ships, transport operators, ports and any other
interconnected and integrated critical infrastructure are prone to
cyberattacks. This paper discusses the important concepts such as
‘maritime’ and ‘cyber security in maritime industry’ and explains
the utmost significance of cyber security at sea both on land and on
board. It further discusses the major global cyber security incidents
to determine vulnerabilities in maritime industry and also
highlights challenges faced by maritime stakeholders amidst the
COVID-19. Finally, this paper looks into existing cyber security
measures and guidelines in the maritime industry.

Keywords: Maritime, Cybersecurity, Cyberthreats, Maritime Cyber

Security, Covid-19

Introduction

T
he maritime sector is known as ‘reactive’ in terms of setting
regulations and standards based on catastrophic incidents. Citing an
example in this context would be the sinking of ‘RMS Titanic’ which
clashed with an iceberg during her first journey to New York City from
Southampton, United Kingdom on April 15, 1912.1 The Titanic was


Senior Research Associate at National Institute of Maritime Affairs, Bahria
University Islamabad. Email: [email protected]

The founder and CEO of the Global Foundation for Cyber Studies and
Research. Email: [email protected]
1 Charles D. Michel, Paul F. Thomas, and Andrew E.Tucci, “Cyber Risks in the
Marine Transportation System, The US Coast Guard Approach,” 2009,
Maritime Cybersecurity 43

believed by the world to be indestructible, and it departed on her first trip

having minimum lifejackets and lifeboats for the crew. It is noteworthy to
mention that the shortage of safety and security equipment wasted more
than 1500 lives.2 As a result, the global maritime community stepped
forward and initiated the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Convention in 1913
to lay down shipping practices and regulations for international seafaring
vessels.3 The next year brought together world maritime leaders in 1914,
who mandated maritime safety requirements including capacity, loading,
durability, lifeboat building requirements, and availability of lifejackets to
every person onboard.4
In the context of cyber threats, global maritime community usually
acts in reaction to the unprecedented event, which happens in cyber
domain. There is no doubt that maritime cyberattacks are increasing than
the maritime community believed due to unregulated attacks.5 It is largely
due to the fact that ships of any country are foreign vessels and crewed by
foreigners.6 For instance, the US Department of Transportation’s Maritime
Administration Office of Financial and Rate Approvals released a report,
which analyzed the leading five port concentration areas in the US: Los
Angeles, Houston, Miami, Newark/New York, and New Orleans.7 They
actually drew special attention to the size of crew and nationalities of
foreign-flag cargo vessels calling at US ports. The notable five flags for
ships, which visit these ports include: Panama, Liberia, Cyprus, Bahamas,
and Malta. The report stated that crewmembers belonging to 123 different

https://www.dco.uscg.mil/Portals/9/CGFAC/Documents/USCG_Paper_MTS_
CyberRisks.pdf
2 Mandy Savage, “Five Safety Lessons Learned from the Sinking of the Titanic,”
EHS Today, April 14, 2015, https://www.ehstoday.com/safety/
article/21916859/five-safety-lessons-learned-from-the-sinking-of-the-titanic
3 Michael Clancy et al., Cruise Ship Tourism (Oxford: CABI, 2017).
4 Jolanta Joszczuk Januszewska, Importance of Cloud-Based Maritime Fleet
Management Software (Springer, 2013), https://link.springer.com/book/
10.1007/978-3-642-41647-7.
5 Don Walsh, “Oceans - Maritime Cyber Security: Shoal Water Ahead?” U.S.
Naval Institute, February 21, 2019, https://www.usni.org/magazines/
proceedings/2015/july/oceans-maritime-cyber-security-shoal-water-ahead.
6 Steven L Caponi, and Kate B Belmont, “Maritime Cyber Security: A Growing
Threat Goes Unanswered,” Intellectual Property & Technology Law Journal Vol
27, Issue 1, (2015), 16-18.
7 Alexeis Garcia Perez, Mick Thurlbeck, and Eddie How, “Towards Cyber
Security Readiness in the Maritime Industry: A Knowledge-Based Approach,”
Coventry University, 2017. https://pure.coventry.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/
portal/12219284/Towards_Cyber_Security_Readiness_In_The_Maritime_Indu
stry.pdf.
44 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

countries were found on foreign-flagged vessels.8 It shows that with so

many distinct nationalities and stakeholders involved, regulating the
vessels entering a port under cybersecurity standard is arduous to
implement.
Since the developments of information technology, computer
networking, and software systems in maritime industry, various
cybersecurity challenges have emerged with the passage of time. The
information and data, driving the maritime operations and infrastructure
are exposed to cyber criminals and groups who may pose a grave threat
for the security of maritime industry. Within the context of maritime
industry and maritime infrastructure, cybersecurity may be taken as the
safeguarding of electronic networks, communication systems, software,
control algorithms, users, unauthorized access, damage, manipulation and
underlying data within the maritime infrastructure from various
cyberattacks.
In past, traditional threats like piracy were a common risk. In this
regard, physical defense was all understood. On the contrary, cyber-attack
at ships is not well understood thus, less countermeasures were taken.
The latest technology in cyber-attacks and long durations increase cyber
threats on maritime installations. Such maritime cyberattacks result in
theft of information, business disruption, and damage to the reputation,
environment, and goods etc. For instance, Automatic Identification System
(AIS), which is used for vessel tracking and positioning, is not protected
through encryption. Through spoofing, AIS signal can easily be used to
disguise its position and make false navigation. Weak, unencrypted and
authenticated signals are widespread for the determination of location.
University of Texas has undertaken a test in 2013 in which, authentication
was exploited and overpowered by a GPS spoofing device with the use of
inbound signals.9 This test resulted into taking over the $80 Million
vessels’ navigation system effectively.
There are majority of companies worldwide, which are in process
of commercializing blockchain technology in order to enhance virtual
global trade platform.10 There are organizations, which are fostering the

8 Carmen Casado, “Vessels on The High Seas: Using A Model Flag State
Compliance Agreement To Control Marine Pollution,” Scholarly Commons,
March 2, 2005, https://scholarlycommons.law.cwsl.edu/cwilj/vol35/iss2/3/
9 UT News, “UT Austin Researchers Successfully Spoof an $80 Million Yacht at
Sea,” The University of Texas at Austin News, August 7, 2018,
https://news.utexas.edu/2013/07/29/ut-austin-researchers-successfully-
spoof-an-80-million-yacht-at-sea/
10 “Annual Report 2018,” MAERSK, 2018, https://investor.maersk.com/news-
release/news-release-details/annual-report-2018,accessed 29 March 2020.
Maritime Cybersecurity 45

digital platforms for cyber security programs.11 Rolls Royce and Google are
working on autonomous shipping and intelligent systems.12
Nevertheless, interconnected shipping industry calls for effective
operational time and effectiveness of various processes for the transaction
of every business. It is important to remember that development and
progress of cybersecurity goes in parallel with the latest technological
advancements. Nevertheless, insufficient knowledge with regards to
cybersecurity issues and prospective challenges, which maritime
companies face these days. This paper explores the significance of cyber
security in the maritime industry and the major incidents occurred in near
past. It also discusses how important it is to secure maritime
infrastructure from cyber threats in this age of technological
advancements. The first section of paper delineates the definitions of
cyber security, maritime sector, and volume of cyber security in the
maritime industry. The second section looks into incidents of cyberattacks
on maritime infrastructure at global level and explains the cyber threats to
maritime infrastructure during the COVID-19 times. The last section deals
with the cyber security measures in the maritime industry.

Cyber Security Maritime Definitions

Cyber security is a vast and broad term having context-bound, high
variables, often subjective and uninformative definitions. There is
literature available, which states the term cyber security, what does it
mean and how it is placed within different contexts. However, the concise
and broadly accepted definition of cyber security is still absent, which may
capture the multidisciplinary approach.13 The maritime experts are yet to
establish the universal definition of “maritime cyber security.” The
Merriam-Webster defines cyber security as “measures taken to protect a
computer or computer system against unauthorized access or attack.”14
From this definition, maritime cyber security could be defined as “cyber
security measures adopted to protect or safeguard computer assets,
networks on ports, terminals, ships, and computerized equipment which
support maritime regular and classified operations.” Since the

11 Kongsberg Group, “KONGSBERG Launches Kognifai,” Kongsberg Digital, March

12, 2019, https://www.kongsberg.com/digital/resources/news-archive/
2017/kongsberg-launches-kognifai/.
12 Sauli Eloranta, “Automated Maritime Transport: Why, How and When,”
accessed September 24, 2020, https://vayla.fi/documents/20485/
421305/Sauli_Eloranta_180117+Rolls+Royce+v1.pdf/7fe4fb37-f501-4e78-
a1fd-7513b02dcc02.
13 James M. Kaplan, Beyond Cybersecurity: Protecting Your Digital Business
(Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2015).
14 “Cybersecurity,” Merriam-Webster, accessed June 24, 2020,
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/cybersecurity.
46 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

developments of IT infrastructure, computer networking and software

systems in maritime industry, there are various cyber security challenges,
which emerged in due course of time. Within the context of maritime
industry and maritime infrastructure, cyber security may be taken as the
safeguarding of electronic networks, communication systems, softwares
control algorithms, users, unauthorized access, damage, manipulation, and
underlying data within the maritime infrastructure from various
cyberattacks.15
The cyber threats to the maritime industry are complex and
researchers have identified various vulnerabilities with respect to the
industry. The criminals are not only realizing the potential of the value of
cargo, but they have already started trying ‘blended attacks’; which can be
launched on various occasions and from different locations in which cargo
can be held as ransom. The known cyber vulnerabilities are likely to be
targeted in near future attacks.16 In past, non-traditional security threats
like smuggling, piracy, and human trafficking were common risks and
physical defense was all understood. On the contrary, cyber attack at ships
is not well understood thus, less countermeasures were taken. Such
maritime cyberattacks result in theft of information, business disruption
and damage to the reputation, environment and goods etc.17 The maritime
industry is vulnerable to cyberattacks due to lack of encryption,
standardized training, sheer cost of defending IT infrastructure, awareness
of cyber security, and industry-wide smugness about cybersecurity. Most
of the navigation systems, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS)
and Global Positioning System (GPS) are neither authenticated nor
encrypted, making it a soft target for malicious actors in cyber space.
Merely spoofing or jamming of these two systems may cause collision of
two ships leading to the closing down shipping channel for days or even
weeks.

The Volume of Maritime Cybersecurity Industry

Maritime operations are increasingly relying on information and
Communication Technology (ICT) to optimize its services due to its cost
effectiveness. As there are various components used by different actors
involved the supply chain process of maritime activities, these systems
become vulnerable to cyberattacks. Some of the systems are used by
general public, for instance the port community system to track and book

15 Alexis Garcia-Perez and et al., "Towards Cyber Security Readiness in the

Maritime Industry."
16 Ibid.
17 Kimberly Tam and Jones D Kevin, “Maritime Cybersecurity Policy: The Scope
and Impact of Evolving Technology on International Shipping,” Journal of
Cyber Policy 3, no. 2 (2018): 147-164.
Maritime Cybersecurity 47

shipments.18 On the other hand, a few components are used by port

operators, such as Terminal Operating System (TOS) for controlling
containers movement and storage on ports. Similarly, companies manage,
link, and share internal processes with customers and suppliers through
back-office management and integration system.19 Cyber attackers take
advantage of the complexity of this wide range of softwares. In the world
of cyber space, remote access provides new opportunities to be used and
misused by cyber attackers. The lack of reliable and non-standardized
protocols of data sharing makes it possible for cyber criminals to intervene
and manipulate the cyber space. Moreover, the absence of any
cybersecurity strategy for maritime industry needs to be made as a matter
of priority and urgency. Maritime industry is one of the most vulnerable
critical infrastructures to malicious cyberattacks and other forms of
cybercrimes. Maritime shipping accounts for 90-94 percent of global trade
and any disruption to the sea lanes of communication, maritime
chokepoints, and shipping companies would have cascading implications
to the supply chain of global economy.20 The economic impacts of
cyberattacks on maritime industry including ports, ships, refineries,
vessels, terminals, and support systems at harbor are estimated to be in
hundred billion dollars.21 Juniper recently issued a report that cybercrime
will become the biggest challenge by the start of 2020 costing the
maritime industry USD 2.1 trillion.22 All sectors of maritime trade will be
affected including ports, logistics, shipping, containers, in such an
environment which will require a global action.

Cybersecurity Threat Environment

Cybersecurity threat environment is always evolving having
various actors becoming smarter, developing their strategies to focus and
target exploits in a systematic spearheaded fashion. With the passage of
time, adversaries are becoming powerful enough to threaten the integrity,
interest, lifestyle, and enhance their own agendas. Cyber threats are
already challenging confidence in global organizations, public trust,
governance, and norms imposing costs on the global economies.23

18 E. Heymann, B.P Miller, M. J. Alghazzawi, and D. Incertis, “Addressing the

Cyber-Security Of Maritime Shipping,”European Transport Conference,
https://aetransport.org/past-etc-papers/conference-papers-2016.
19 Ibid.
20 “International Maritime Organization,” United Nations Business, accessed June
24, 2020, https://business.un.org/en/entities/13.
21 Chronis Kapalidis, “Cyber Security Challenges for the Maritime Industry,”
Safety4sea, September 12, 2019, https://safety4sea.com/cm-cyber-security-
challenges-for-the-maritime-industry/.
22 Ibid.
23 Daniel R Coats. "Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of
the US Intelligence Community, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,
48 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

A malicious actor also called a threat actor, is an entity, which is

wholly or partially responsible for the incident that has the potential to
impact an organization’s security.24 These actors can damage critical
systems by exploiting vulnerabilities in cyber system, compromise
personal information, steal valuable intellectual property, conceal physical
crimes or even collect business intelligence etc.
Figure 1: Cyber Security Threat Environment

Major categories of malicious cyber actors as shown in Figure 1 include:

Recreational hackers
These are the hackers who try to hack cyber systems just to
impress their counterparts with a skilful exploit rather than making
money.

Cyber Terrorists
Cyber terrorism is the combination of cyberspace and terrorism,
which is generally understood as unlawful attacks or threats of attacks

Daniel R. Coats, Director of National Intelligence, May 11, 2017," In United

States. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. United States. Office of the
Director of National Intelligence, 2017.
24 "Threat Actor," TechTarget. accessed August 26, 2020,
https://whatis.techtarget.com/ definition/threat-actor.
Maritime Cybersecurity 49

through networks, computers, and the data stored therein. These attacks
can be launched to coerce or intimidate the government or people in
connection to social or political objectives. Cyber terrorists are the actors
who use internet to achieve their goals, which results in threatening a life
or damage an infrastructure through intimidation.25

Criminal Entities
There are individuals who perform malicious activities on
networks or digital systems by the use of technology in maritime domain.
These activities include importing drugs, counterfeit goods, and illegal
chemical to get profits in the black market and stealing cargo.

State-Actors
State-Actors are tasked by the governments to steal sensitive
information or disrupt other governments critical infrastructure by cyber
means.

Accidental Stumblers
They are also known as ‘Script Kiddies’ who actually learn hacking
from the online resources and end up penetrating into systems and
disrupting sensitive operations unintentionally.

Politically Motivated “Hacktivists”

They are tech savvy organized groups who actually undertake
cyberattacks against organizations and nations in order to achieve
political and social causes.
The cyber threat environment is frequently shifting and complex,
the fact is that there are various actors always keep on gaining access to or
disrupting cyber systems for malicious purposes.
Internal Threats
There are cyber threats from service provider or an employee as
well. Internal people can compromise the maritime system by the
carelessness, negligence, human error or by ignorance. They may open up
a malicious email, access malicious website, or use infected removable
media. This unintentional act may expose classified or sensitive data to
cyber threats thus putting the security of an organization at risk.26

25 Jones, Deri, and N. T. A. Monitor. "Semantic attacks-a new wave of cyber-

terrorism." Network Security 3 (2002): 13-5.
26 “The Guidelines of Cyber Security Onboard Ships Version 3,” Bimco, Clia, Ics,
Intercargo, Intermanager, Intertanko, Iumi, Ocimf and World Shipping
Council, https://www.ics-shipping.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/
guidelines-on-cyber-security-onboard-ships-min.pdf.
 50 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Recent Cyberattacks and Incidents

on Maritime Infrastructure
There are cyberattacks taking place in maritime industry which
target bank records, access logistical software, penetrate into control
systems and engines and hack navigation system of a ship. In the year
2017, a survey has shown the volume of cyberattacks on shipping
companies to 69 percent.27 The networks and systems used by shipping
companies, vessels, flag states, and ports handle classified information,
which catches the interest of criminals and can have an attractive target.
Table 1 shows some recent cyber incidents and the nature of attacks on
the maritime infrastructure.
Table 1: Cyber Attacks on Maritime Infrastructure (2011-2020)
a. Cyber Attacks/ Incidents on Nature of Attack Country Year
Maritime Infrastructure
b. The Islamic Republic of Iran Iranian stevedores could Iran 2011
Shipping Lines (IRISL) not count containers,
became the victim of cyber- stored pier-side or placed
attack on ships without
manually verifying all
twenty-foot equivalent
units (TEUs).
c. Saudi Aramco Oil and Gas An employee mistakenly Saudi 2012
Operator opened a phishing email Arabia
which had an infected
link.
d. Ghost Shipping Cyber experts to infiltrate Belgium 2013
computer networks
which were responsible
to manage what’s inside
each container at the port
of Antwerp.
e. Ice Fog Advanced Persistent South 2013
Threats (APTs) were Korean and
launched on South Japan
Korean and Japanese
assets.
f. Vessel GPS GPS was hacked of South Korea 2016
Korean vessel, resultantly
provided false
information.
g. Cyber Attack on Maersk Ransomware attacks Maersk 2017
were reported on Dutch worldwide

27 David Silgado Miranda, “Cyberattacks: A Digital Threat Reality Affecting the

Maritime Industry,” World Maritime University Dissertations, April 4, 2018,
https://commons.wmu.se/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1662&context=all_dis
sertations.
 Maritime Cybersecurity 51

maritime shipping
company.
h. Long Beach Terminal of A ransomware attack was USA 2018
Cosco launched against Cosco
Shipping at the port of
Long Beach Terminal
i. US Coast Guard Rescues a A cyber attack was USA 2019
Shipping Vessel from Cyber launched against a vessel
Attack bound to New York and
Coast Guard rescued that.
j. Global Logistics Operator A ransomware attack was Australia 2020
Toll Group has been Subject launched against global
to Cyber Attack logistics operator Toll
Group
Source: Compiled by the author.
Cyberattacks on the Maritime Assets of the
Islamic Republic of Iran – 2011
Shipping has been the major pillar of Iranian’s economy to make it
alive during the times of multilateral sanctions by the International
community. In August 2011, an Iranian state-owned shipping organization
named the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) became the
victim of cyber-attack.28 The founder of Cyber Keel, Lars Jenson stated,
“the cyber attack almost damaged data related to cargo number, loading,
date and place, and rates, which resulted in huge financial loss.”29
According to the IRISL, the general shipping information and cargo
information was taken by the hackers. Resultantly, it became nearly
impossible for Iranian stevedores to count those containers, which were
stored pier-side or placed on ships without manually verifying all twenty-
foot equivalent units (TEUs). Though there is no information on how long
time it took to restore, but the loss to IRISL was considerable.
Cyberattack on Saudi Oil and Gas Company Aramco - 2012
The Saudi’s largest oil and gas operator named ARAMCO was hit by
a cyberattack. The company’s employee mistakenly opened a phishing
email which contained an infected link. This resulted in corruption of files,
and disconnection of phone calls. Almost 35,000 computers were infected
and 3 quarters of data was removed. On top of that, the oil company could

28 “Iran's Offshore Platforms Become Target of Recent Cyber Attacks,” The

Maritime Executive, October, 2012, https://www.maritime-executive.com/
article/iran-s-offshore-platforms-become-target-of-recent-cyber-attacks
29 “Maritime Cyber-Risks Virtual Pirates at Large on the Cyber Seas,” CyberKeel,
October 15, 2014, Cophenhagen, Denmark, 6, https://maritimecyprus.files.
wordpress.com/2015/06/maritime-cyber-risks.pdf
52 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

not perform its regular functions for 17 days.30 It took ARAMCO 5 months
to recover from the loss and resume its day-to-day operations.
Ghost Shipping / Port of Antwerp – 2013
During the year 2011 and 2013, Drug traffickers in Dutch hired
cyber experts to infiltrate computer networks, which were responsible to
manage what’s inside each container at the port of Antwerp. This way,
they managed to hide cocaine in the containers and got them release to the
destination without the knowledge of port authorities.31
Ice Fog – South Korean and Japanese Assets Incident – 2013
Kaspersky Labs, an Internet security company, released proofs of
consistent cyberattacks of phishing on South Korean and Japanese assets
in 2013.32 The targeted institutions included military, telecom, media
houses, government, and shipbuilding groups. The most lethal cyberattack
is known as advanced persistent threats (APTs).
Vessels GPS in Korea – 2016
South Korean vessel suffered a cyberattack in April 2016 in which
navigational system was jammed. The GPS was hacked by hackers; some
signals were dead, and some others were providing false information. The
GPS had not exhibited correct information, and eventually the ship was
returned to the port. This can become a serious navigational fault, if it
happens in poor weather condition, vessel traffic area or having
inadequate visibility.33
Port Operations of A.P. Moller-Maersk - 2017
The Dutch maritime shipping company ‘Maersk’ was hit by
cyberattack in 2017. This cyberattack was the one which raised serious
cyber vulnerabilities of maritime industry. The company’s loss was
estimated to be around $300 million and they continued their operations

30 Jose Pagliery, "The Inside Story of the Biggest Hack in History," CNN Money,
August 5, 2015, https://money.cnn.com/2015/08/05/technology/aramco-
hack/
31 Joseph Direnzo, Dana A. Goward, and Fred S. Roberts, “The Little-Known
Challenge of Maritime Cyber Security,” 6th International Conference on
Information, Intelligence, Systems and Applications (IISA), 2015,
https://doi.org/10.1109/iisa.2015.7388071.
32 “The ‘Icefog’ Apt: A Tale Of Cloak And Three Daggers,” Kaspersky Media,
https://media.kaspersky.com/en/icefog-apt-threat.pdf, last accessed June 25,
2020.
33 “Cyber Security Fleet Protection Digital Ship Singapore March 2018,” OSM
Maritime Group, 2018, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/
57a8878837c58153c1897c2c/t/5ab3b85f88251b5549a07357/1521727638
547/8PeterSchellenberger_OSM_APM18.pdf
Maritime Cybersecurity 53

without IT for many days till the resume of operational activities.34 Maersk
had to close down its activities from several ports across the globe
reducing the volume by 25 percent. In order to resume its services, the
organization had replaced its 45000 computers, 4,000 servers and
installed 2500 new applications.
Long Beach Terminal of Cosco - 2018
In July 2018, Cosco Long Beach Terminal, which was associated
with Cosco Shipping was affected by a ransomware cyberattack. Though,
the cyberattack could not harm the company’s daily operations, but the
company decided to close down its connections with external regions.
Later, the company sent letter to every client in order to clarify the
incident.35
US Coast Guard Rescues a Shipping
Vessel from Cyber Attack - 2019
In February 2019, the US Coast Guard received a message from a
large ship bound for New York that the vessel was facing an alarming
cyberattack impacting their shipboard network.” An incident response
team led by the Coast Guard investigated the matter and found that ship
system was affected by the malware and it has significantly degraded the
functionality of the vessel. Fortunately, the imperative systems for the
control of vessel remained unimpeded.36
Global Logistics Operator Toll Group
had been Subject to a Cyber Attack - 2020
Global logistics operator Toll Group has reported to be under
cyberattack across its sea and land operations on 03 February 2020. The
company had closed down its number of systems at various sites in order
to respond the attack. As a consequence, majority of the customers were
experiencing disruption or delays while the company was trying to resume
its operations. The attack later on was identified as Mailto ransomware or

34 Jonathan Saul, "Global Shipping Feels Fallout from Maersk Cyber Attack,"
Reuters, June 29, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyber-attack-
maersk-idUSKBN19K2LE
35 Michael Juliano, "Cosco's Long Beach Terminal Hit by Cyber-attack,"
Tradewinds - Global Shipping News, July 25, 2018.
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/casualties/1541843/coscos-long-beach-
terminal-hit-by-cyber-attack
36 James Rundle, “U.S. Coast Guard Warns Shipping Industry on Cybersecurity,”
The Wall Street Journal, July 11, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-
coast-guard-warns-shipping-industry-on-cybersecurity-11562837402.
54 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Netwalker, which is a new malware first time reported in October 2019.37

The above-mentioned incidents were just few examples of
cyberattacks occurred in the maritime industry. However, there are many
more cyber incidents, which don’t get reported due to the fear of loss of
reputation. Interestingly, maritime industry was shaken by the
cyberattack on Maersk shipping lines in 2017 and indeed it was the time
when maritime sector has started realization that cyber threats are real
and they can create serious damages to the industry.

Cyber Threats to Maritime Industry during COVID-19

Since the outbreak of the covid-19, the global maritime transport
industry is performing a significant role in the smooth dissemination and
relay of goods across the globe. According to United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTAD) statistics, around 80 percent of the
global trade is sent by commercial ships that moves the world’s energy,
food, and raw materials along with all manufactured components and
goods.38 It also includes medical supplies, which are in demand worldwide
and without which the prevailing situation cannot be controlled. In this
context, the maritime industry, call to the government for keeping
maritime trade moving by allowing commercial ships to ports globally and
changing crew of ships worldwide is a significant aspect, which cannot be
ruled out. In the global crisis, it is imperative to keep supply chain
consistent and to allow maritime trade and trans-border transport to
continue.39 Another important aspect is the provision of food to landlocked
countries, which need unhindered access to food and medical supplies
through neighbouring state’s seaports. Restrictions on trade may interrupt
and disrupt businesses and can have negative ramifications on global
economy. The recent virtual G20 Leaders Summit on the COVID-19, the
state leaders should give heed to the maritime industry call to keep
maritime trade moving. The backlash to global economy is yet to be
ascertained, as the pandemic is called ‘black swan’ due to the magnified
impact it brings to the businesses worldwide and halting the supply chain
industry.40

37 Zoe Reynolds, “Toll Group Shuts Down IT Systems after Cyber Attack,”
SafetyatSea, February 6, 2020, https://safetyatsea.net/news/2020/toll-
group-shuts-down-it-systems-after-cyber-attack/
38 Mukhisa Kituyi, “Coronavirus: Let’s Keep Ships Moving, Ports Open and Cross-
Border Trade Flowing,” United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
(UNCTAD), March 25, 2020, https://unctad.org/news/coronavirus-lets-keep-
ships-moving-ports-open-and-cross-border-trade-flowing
39 Ibid.
40 Benjamin Hilliburton, “COVID-19 is a Black Swan,” Forbes, March 19,
2020,https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbooksauthors/2020/03/19/covi
d-19-is-a-black-swan/#211c1ea67b4b.
Maritime Cybersecurity 55

In this scenario, any cyberattack leading to the short term

suspension or long term disruption to any operational technological
activity will have a devastating impact on the maritime industry.
According to a survey conducted by the Business Performance Innovation
(BPI Network) in partnership with Navis stated that global maritime
industry is seriously concerned about the cyber security.41 Same concern
is being observed during the pandemic, as cyber hackers have started
targeting maritime industry, as reported by the cyber consultants
worldwide. There are ships, which are receiving malicious emails targeting
maritime sector with phishing links or malwares in order to compromise
the vessel or parent organization. The maritime organizations have come
under sophisticated cyberattacks where charity and International
Seafarers’ welfare networks are becoming the targets by cyber hackers. An
email with the title ‘Corona virus / Affected Vessel to Avoid’ and contains
list of vessels with infected crew was circulated amongst maritime
industry amidst the Corona-virus.42 There is another email promising to
reveal names of infected crew members onboard specific vessels lured its
readers to fill the form attached and send them back. Another incident
reported about a malicious email impersonating World Health
Organisation (WHO) Project Manager which was found suspicious as the
language was full of grammatical errors, phrasing issues, and
capitalization errors throughout.43 The Corona virus being the only topic
today evoke emotional response causing the recipient to open the spoofed
message without getting cautious. Taking the lead from this, building a
scenario with sophisticated and well-planned cyberattacks on maritime
industry, cyber criminals can leverage the global crisis and demand million
dollars as a ransom.

Cyber Security Counter Measures

in Maritime Industry
In last few years, the maritime industry has taken important steps
regarding devising recommendations and guidelines to address the
cybersecurity threats. However, with continued call for advanced
technological equipment and systems used in day-to-day shipping

41 “Shipping Industry Optimistic But Concerned About Trade, Cyber Threats,”

Material Handling & Logistics, November 19, 2018,
https://www.mhlnews.com/transportation-
distribution/article/22055334/shipping-industry-optimistic-but-concerned-
about-trade-cyber-threats.
42 Sam Chambers, “Weekly Report Details Growing Number of Shipping
Companies Targeted by Malware Attacks,” Splash Tech, March 25, 2020,
https://splash247.com/weekly-report-details-growing-number-of-shipping-
companies-targeted-by-malware-attacks/
43 Ibid.
56 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

activities, a dire need is required for government and industry to develop

and implement strong and robust security measures, which can provide
risk-based prevention, mitigation and recovery stages in cybersecurity
field. In this regard, a multifaced approach would consist of cybersecurity
assessment, cybersecurity enhancement, penetration testing, verification
of any new builds (software or hardware), assessment of onboard vessel’s
cybersecurity, ISO/IEC 27001 Maritime training and compliance along
with profiled training of all personnel. By the time, operational technology
(OT) and information technology (IT) have been coupled together, the
frequency to internet has been increased as well. It further brings greater
cyber risks to ships not only from unauthorized access or malicious
attacks but also from personnel accessing systems onboard ships. In 2017,
the International Maritime Organization (IMO) initiated and adopted
resolution MSC.428(98) on Maritime Cyber Risk Management in Safety
Management System (SMS). According to the resolution, cyber risk
management should be taken into consideration an approved SMS with
the functional requirements and objectives of the ISM code. The
administrators are also encouraged to address cyber risks in SMS not later
than the first annual verification of the company’s Document of
Compliance after January 1, 2021.44 The resolution discusses various
company-ship specific approaches of cyber risk management but it is
regulated under relevant national, international and flag state regulations.
The same year, IMO also came up with guidelines providing
recommendations on cyber risks management to ensure ships are safe
from emerging cyber risks and vulnerabilities. As per guidelines, senior
management is responsible for the implementation of cyber risk
management, as they should harbor the cyber culture into all levels and
departments of any organization.
Like the IMO guidelines, the US National Institute of Standards &
Technology (NIST) made a Cybersecurity Framework (CSF), which
provides instruction to find out and sort out cyber related threats for the
systems and applications.45 The prioritized, flexible, and cost-effective
framework approach serves as the solid guidelines for organizations to
handle cyber issues while safeguarding civil liberties, business and
individual practices confidentially.
In 2019, on the basis of senior management commitment to ensure
cyber risk management, the Guidelines on Cyber Security Onboard Ships

44 “The Guidelines of Cyber Security Onboard Ship,” BIMCO Bulletin, December

2020, https://www.bimco.org/about-us-and-our-members/publications/
bimco-bulletin.
45 “Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity, Version 1.0,”
National Institute of Standards and Technology, February 12, 2014,
http://www.nist.gov/cyberframework/upload/cybersecurity-framework-
021214.pdf
Maritime Cybersecurity 57

have been formulated by the BIMCO in consultation with CLIA, ICS,

INTERCARGO, Inter Manager, INTERTANKO, IUMI, OCIMF and WSC. These
guidelines are aligned with IMO resolution and guidelines and offer
various new recommendations on maritime cyber safety and cyber
security.46 This document aimed at providing guidance to ship owners and
operators on actions and procedures to maintain the cyber security of
cyber systems in the organization and onboard ships.
These guidelines are third edition in the last many years thus
reflecting the dynamic nature of cyber risks and challenging to the
maritime sector. The difference between previous guidelines and new one
lies in multiple domains, such as operational technology and supply chain
risks. The cyber risk associated with ships are directly linked with
information technology and operational technology. For instance,
malfunctioning IT system may cause a delay in clearance or ships’ loading
but inoperative OT can cause real risk to the ship, people or the marine
environment. Most often, the jobs at ship may be focused on protecting
operational systems as compared to protecting data. If a software
controlling engine is hit by a cyberattack with malware, it can lead to
disastrous situations.47
Another aspect has been covered in the guidelines was the number
of cyber incidents to demonstrate the real-world situations, faced by
operators and ship owners, though the examples have been anonymized.
The supply chain risks were also highlighted in the guidelines
highlighting the risks associated with malware infecting the systems of
ship through external parties linked with ships and their systems. For
example, ships are not just standing in the middle of ocean, it has to have
close connections to security systems in the shippers’, companies’ and
agents’ offices, which make it more vulnerable in the cyber domain.
The maritime industry is to join hands with governments across
the globe and take serious and specified measures to mitigate cyber
threats especially in the midst of any natural disaster or pandemic. There
is a dire need to train crew members of all levels to understand and realize
the existence of cyber-attacks. They should be given adequate practical
guidance on how to look for potential malware or phishing attempt. The
maritime industry should also use direct communication in order to verify
emails from the original originator.

46 Aron Soerensen, “Safety at Sea and BIMCO publish Cyber Security,” BIMCO
Bulletin, September 19, 2019, https://www.bimco.org/news/priority-
news/20190916-safety-at-sea-and-bimco-publish-cyber-security-white-
paper
47 Rasmus N Jorgensen, “Industry Publishes Improved Cyber Guidelines,” BIMCO
Bulletin, December 7, 2018, https://www.bimco.org/news/priority-
news/20181207-industry-publishes-improved-cyber-guidelines.
58 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Conclusion
In this digital age of maritime industry, information, and
communication technologies play an important role through increased
connectivity of networks and systems. The industry has been transformed
from traditional concepts into new technologies having advanced and
sophisticated systems. The modern shipping industry now facilitates
routine operations, but it also becomes vulnerable to different type of
cyberattacks. Organizations actually invest in cyber technology and
systems but not on the training of staff. Given this, most cyber-attack
incidents are associated with the human factor making the state of affairs
completely paradoxical. Either we take the example of 2011 Stuxnet in
Iran or Saudi Aramco cyberattack in 2012, human error and incompetency
prevail in these major cyber security attacks. This scenario is mostly
prevalent in developing countries or LDCs where highest cyber
commitment is still lacking behind; resultantly they fall to various
malicious viruses leading to cyberattacks.
Since, the maritime sector is evolving; the demonstration of new
technologies makes it significant to work for a longer-term cybersecurity
framework and plans. This requirement is also reflected in the IMO and
United Nations’ agenda in order to achieve the sustainable development
goals. Since cybersecurity has emerged as a strong threat to the maritime
industry, it has become mandatory for all stakeholders to collaborate and
participate to address this global threat. The participation of all maritime
sectors is also important to contribute in creating optimal operational
conditions, implementing national regulations, enforcing and contributing
to the prosperity and stability of maritime industry. This will not only help
in ensuring the maritime sector plays its role, but also better develop
future working conditions for new generations. For the same reason, it
becomes inevitable that vessels, shipping companies, ports and harbor
facilities and regulatory organizations keep working on the enhancement
of cybersecurity measures in order to protect critical infrastructure and
key resources from cyber threats. Though the maritime industry is
becoming aware of cyber incidents and adapting cyber risks mitigation
trainings, however, there is strong need not to let go of multiple unnoticed
and unregulated cyber incidents.
CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 59

DEFORESTATION IN PAKISTAN: CPEC

AN AUXILIARY EXACERBATION
Shaista Tabassum*
Abstract
Deforestation is one of the primary reasons for environmental
degradation in the World. Pakistan is among the ones most
exposed to global climatic changes resulting primarily due to
unchecked and uncontrolled deforestation. Though CPEC, and its
associated projects with China promise a positive addition to the
economic development of Pakistan, the environmental aspect of
the project has been overlooked. It is a three tier project aimed to
construct roads and highways on the Western, Eastern and Central
routes. These routes are being (and are to be) developed by
eradicating vast lands of cultivated farms, harvest fields and
forests. Thus Pakistan’s already deteriorating environment would
be further stressed by massive deforestation occurring as CPEC
progresses. Reforestation is the best possible alternative to deal
with the emerging challenges.

Keywords: Climate Change, Deforestation, CPEC Routes, Pollution,

Reforestation, Forest Roads

Introduction

T
he earth’s climate is undergoing continuous changes causing serious
weather fluctuations. These alterations are not simply limited to the
changes in temperature and in the rainfall but also a number of new
areas including the worst effects on quality of human life. Environmental
experts outline a number of causes for the global climatic changes. One of
the most significant is the colossal deforestation that has removed massive
mountainous topographies having a prominent part in global climate
change. Although it is generally assumed that one of the major reasons of
global warming is the burning of fossil fuels but still the major impact that
massive deforestation has in reinforcing greenhouse effect can’t be
ignored.1

* Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi,

Karachi. Email: [email protected].
1 Christopher Mathews, “Deforestation Causes Global Warming,” Food and
Culture Organisation (FAO) Newsroom, September 4, 2006,
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/ news/2006/ 1000385/index.html.
60 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The South Asian region is one of the most vulnerable to the

environmental changes. Because of the global climate change there is a
continuous rise in global temperature. In several parts of South Asia the
overall annual temperature has multiplied notably in the last few decades.
For example, in the Western part of Afghanistan and southern part of
Pakistan, from 1950-2010 there was a remarkable rise in the
temperatures, approximately by 1.0°C to 3.0°C. A similar increase of
around 1.0 to 1.5 degree was also recorded during this period in other
parts of South Asia including the Southeast India, the western Sri Lanka,
northern Pakistan, and eastern Nepal.2
Pakistan is more exposed to climate change than any other
regional state due to its diverse ecosystem having coastline, arid zones,
deserts, glaciers and mountains along with a continuously growing
population and a persistently poor planning and mismanagement. Owing
to climate change there is a steady temperature rise in Pakistan almost
every year especially during summers.3 Previously, during 2009-2010
Pakistan was on 29th position on the Climate Change Vulnerability Index
(CCVI) devised by Maple Croft, but moved to 16th position in 2010-2011
which meant that Pakistan has become more exposed and vulnerable to
climate-related changes.4 In 2016, Pakistan moved to 7th position on the
climate risk index.5 Moreover, due to these sudden climate-change driven
changes, Pakistan has suffered from massive floods in the last five years
and earthquakes have been hitting different parts of the country almost
annually.
CPEC – a multibillion dollar project is widely believed to be a
game-changer for Pakistan; it is expected to usher into a new era of
economic development for the country. The project was initially divided in
to three stages. At the first stage, a road network or highway will connect
Kashghar and Gawadar, whereas in the second phase rail network

2 Muthukumara Mani, Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay, Shun Chonabayashi, Anil

Markandya, and Thomas Mosier, “South Asia’s Hotspots: The Impact of
Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards,” World Bank
Group, (Washington D.C, January 2018), 3.
3 “Pakistan Sets April World Temperature Record,” Aljazeera, May3, 2018,
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/05/pakistan-sets-april-world-
temperature-record-180503084609942.html last accessed on 27 January
2021.
4 “Climate Change Disasters in Pakistan and its Consequences,” The News,
October 8, 2011, https://www.thenews.com.pk/ archive/print/325400-
climate-change-disasters-in-pakistan-and-its-consequences.
5 David Eckstein, Vera Künzel, and Laura Schäfer, Global Climate index 2018
(Briefing paper), Germanwatch, Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation
and Development, (Office Bonn, German Watch e.V, November 2017):13,
https://germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/publication/20432.p
df.
CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 61

connection will be established, and in the final stage, the route will be
linked via an energy pipeline; the setting up of an oil refinery at Gwadar is
also proposed. Moreover a cargo terminal, to facilitate logistics and
transport is also a part of the proposed projects. For all such proposed
roads and highway routes massive cutting down of trees, farms and
cultivated lands will be needed.
This paper is an attempt to analyze the potential deforestation that
may occur owing to the proposed CPEC highways and railway projects,
and the impacts it will have on already deteriorating environmental profile
of Pakistan. Towards the end, the article emphasizes the need of
reforestation initiative to be run in parallel to the development projects.
The primary sources for the collection of data include reports of
the Pakistan Economic Survey, forestry department of the government of
Punjab, the Pakistan’s official CPEC website, and finally, the Google Earth
free source of satellite images, used for focusing on the motorway routes
and the adjacent localities to locate green and cultivated areas. The
secondary sources include items from newspapers, research articles and
books on the subject.

Deforestation in Pakistan
The forests are defined as the “lands of more than 0.5 hectares,
with a tree canopy cover of more than 10 percent, which are not primarily
under agricultural or urban land use. Forests are determined both by the
presence of trees and the absence of other predominant land uses. The
trees should be able to reach a minimum height of 5 meters in situ”.6
Indiscriminate cutting down of trees and shrubs is common among
villagers and timber mafia; it is a known global practice - thus
Deforestation is an international issue. In technical terms the process of
deforestation is defined as the elimination of large standing trees as a
result of which the land affected will thereafter be converted to a non-
forest use. For example the land cleared by deforestation could be used
for farms, or for urban use, or for ranches. It is important to mention here
that most of the deforestation cases have occurred in the tropical
rainforests areas.
In Pakistan, a very large area of dense forest was devastated by
unchecked deforestation, reducing it to just 5.1 percent of the land area,
nearly 4.5 m.ha. The forest covered area in Pakistan is far lower than the
internationally maintained standard which is at least 25 percent.
Moreover efforts at forestation especially in the hilly areas are almost

6 “On Definition of Forest and Forest Change,” Food and Culture Organisation
(FAO), Forest Resource Assesment Program Working Paper #1,
2020,http://www.fao.org/3/ad665e/ad665e06.htm#TopOfPage, last
accessed on 25 January 2021.
62 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

negligible;7 instead it is in reverse direction. In this context the UNDP

report for the year 2020 is alarming, which declares that there is a decline
in the forest cover area of Pakistan which is less than 5 percent of the total
land area; it continues at the rate of 1.5 percent every year.8
There are several reasons for the decline in forest covered area in
Pakistan. It was once a wood sufficient country now facing a constant
decline in wood production. This was largely due to the unavailability of
electricity and dearth of renewable energy sources, especially gas and
coal; in many hilly areas wood is used as the only easily accessible source
of energy for communities. Other reasons are extreme poverty, and non-
existence of proper control mechanisms because of which wood cutting
continued without check. It is said that almost 90 percent of the people in
the rural mountainous areas used wood for household - in winter for
heating and in ordinary days for cooking. The low literacy rate along with
poverty and underdeveloped status of people, with limited means of
communications and transportation has multiplied the problem.
Moreover, the demand for wood is much higher in proportion than its
actual production. There is a big difference in the consumption and
production of wood and this is eventually the real reason of deforestation
in Pakistan. Despite of government measures, calling the cutting of the
trees as illegal, there is a powerful timber mafia of rich people involved in
the illegal cutting and selling of woods.9
The utmost victims of this tragedy were the conifer forests in the
upper Punjab and the lower Himalayan region (the Galiyat, Murree and
Patriata, including Azad Kashmir and Kaghan-Naran Valley). These forests
were the natural barrier in interrupting the heavy humid monsoon
approaching from the eastern side. These forests worked as a natural
buffer and it was also interconnected with rainfall in the adjacent areas of
Muzaffarabad, Balakot and Abbottabad, which ultimately are also essential
for guaranteeing the continuous flow in the two life lines of Pakistan
agriculture, the river Indus and Jhelum. Since forests act as a local
humidity machine they are vital in synchronizing the water cycle with the
climatic changes in the region. The conifer forests of this area actively

7 Naila Nazir, and Salman Ahmed, “Forest Land Conversion Dynamics: A Case of
Pakistan,” Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary
Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol.
20(1) (February, 2018): 6, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/
311243748_Forest_land_conversion_dynamics_a_case_of_Pakistan.
8 “Sustainable Forest Management to Secure Multiple Benefits in Pakistan’s
High Conservation Area,” United Nations Development Program,
https://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/projects/sustainable-
forest-management.html, last accessed on 25 January 2021.
9 Asif Saeed, “The Underlying Causes of Deforestation and Forest Degradation
in Pakistan,” (Paper, XII World Forestry Congress, Quebec City, 2003),
http://www.fao.org/docrep/article/wfc/xii/0983-b1.htm.
CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 63

absorbed the atmospheric carbon dioxide which is believed to be

responsible for warming of environment.10

The CPEC-Related Challenges

A more serious challenge to environment would be posed when
heavy vehicle movement of large number of containers through
Karakorum highway will begin. At present China’s annual containers
movement is approximately 225 billion from one part of world to other.
Out of this, around 30 percent (70 Million containers) is with European
nations and around 6 percent with Africa. Even if Pakistan gets 10 percent
share of container flow to European nations, it would be around 70,000
containers annually,11 which means approximately 190 containers daily
would be passing through the CPEC route.
In order to construct the CPEC roads and highways tracks, colossal
number of trees will be eliminated to clear the land. A closer look at the
map of Punjab map shows that these highways are passing through
cultivated farms and forest areas of the province which is the hub of
cultivation activity in Punjab; same is the case with KPK. This entire route
of the corridor is also home to diverse wild life. It must be noted here that
the wild life, forests, and farms are the best source of controlling pollution,
which is most likely to increase when the CPEC highways and rail tracks
would actually become operational. Moreover, elimination of wild life and
cutting down of trees will create number of health problems like smog, soil
erosion and floods, as well as a scarcity of water resources.12
Although few studies focusing on existing routes are available, but
these cannot be generalized for all the CPEC routes as certain routes,
especially in Balochistan province are passing through barren and
uncultivated lands. At the same time these studies are important and
relatable to areas which are similar in habitat and climate. Here it must be
pointed out that more severe effects on climate are expected when heavy
traffic starts moving on these motorways and highways. There were three
routes initially decided for the economic corridor. One is the Western
route originating from Gwadar, that will pass through Turbat, Panjgur,
Naag, Basima, Sohrab, Kalat, Quetta, Qila Saifullah, Zhob Dera Ismail Khan,
Mianwali, Hasanabdal, and reach Islamabad. The second one is the Central

10 Arshad Abbasi, “Deforestation and Drought,” The News, May 25, 2006,
https://www.thenews.com.pk/archive/print/7697-deforestation-and-
drought
11 M. Tahir Masood, M. Farooq, and Syed Bashir Hussain, “Pakistan’s Potential as
a Transit Trade Corridor and Transportation Challenges,” Pakistan Business
Review (April 2016): 279.
12 Waqar Khan, “CPEC: An Environmental Disaster,” Global Village Space, January 1,
2018, https://www.globalvillagespace.com/cpec-an-environmental-
disaster/.
64 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

route that will originate from Gwadar, Quetta, and reach Dera Ismail Khan
via Basima, Khuzdar, Sukkar, Rajanpur, Liya, Muzaffargarh, Bhakkar, Dera
Ismail Khan. The proposed Eastern route will include Gwadar, Basima,
Khuzdar, Sukkar, Rahim Yar Khan, Bhawalpur, Multan, Lahore/Faisalabad,
Islamabad, and Mansehra”.13 It was decided that all the three routes will be
developed and made operational for traffic. Punjab already has a modern
highway setup but as part of the CPEC road networking it was decided that
some existing roads will be extended or widened in addition to
constructing new roads and highways.
The routes are designed to use the roads and motorways already
constructed either by extension or expansion. Following is a list of
Motorways that have to be managed by the National Highway authority:
M-1 - from Islamabad to Peshawar 154 Km long.
M-2 - from Lahore to Islamabad - 367 km long.
M-3 - from Pindi Bhattian to Faisalabad - 53 km long.
M-4 - planned from Faisalabad to Multan with a total length of 243 km.
M-5 - planned from Multan to D G Khan with a total length of 84 km.
M-6 - planned from D G Khan to Kakkar with total length of 467 km.
M-7 - planned from Kakkar to Karachi with a total length of 280 km.
M-8 - planned from Gawadar to Ratodero with a total length of 859 km.
M-9 - planned from Karachi to Hyderabad with the length of 136 km.14
As far as the Western route is concerned it is the very first route
agreed upon and marked. Major portion of the proposed project is
almost complete. It is a 1,153 km-long route consisting of four parts. The
first is the 280km-long Brahma Bahtar-Yarik Motorway or the Hakla–DI
Khan 4-tract Motorway, that starts from Hakla interchange on M1 and
ends up at Yarik, DI Khan. The second part comprises the already
existing N-50 National Highway between DI Khan and Quetta that passes
through Zhob, and is being upgraded under the Asian Development
Bank’s National Highway Development Sector Investment Program. The
third part includes 470 kms of upgrades to N-25 highway from Sorab to
Hoshab near Turbat. The fourth and the last part is M-8 motorway
between Hoshab and Gwadar that has also been built. The under-
construction part of M-8 will continue all the way to Khuzdar creating an
alternative route.15 Although the initial part of Western route passes

13 “Ahsan Reveals Three Routes of the Corridor,” Dawn, May 15, 2015,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1182074.
14 Pakistan Road Network, Logistics Capacity Assessment,
http://dlca.logcluster.org/display/public/DLCA/2.3+Pakistan+Road+Networ
k;jsessionid=FF1E973BE0583D42B15E228833B59ADE, last accessed on 11
March 2020.
15 Hassan Khawar, “CPEC: Western Route and Balochistan,” The Express Tribune,
March 16, 2018, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1658041/6-cpec-western-
route-balochistan.
CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 65

through Balochistan but it will not be crossing the green zones, forests or
agricultural locality. Thus here the deforestation might not be an
immediate challenge, but even then, the environmental pollution would
definitely increase with the movement of large number of heavy vehicles.
This pollution would ultimately condense the naked eye visibility and
would further dangle floating elements if unremitting accumulation
continues - this is dangerous for human life as the dust emissions are
injurious to human health. Moreover, toxic chemical and construction
material added to the roads like brake and oil leakages, motor oil and
asbestos etc. are equally harmful for living creatures. Many chemicals,
especially is case of frequently used roads, reach to the soil and
atmosphere thus intoxicating the air in the surrounding areas.
Unlike the western route, the eastern and the central routes are
passing through Punjab and KPK, which both have either dense forest
cover or rich cultivated lands. For example, a portion of M2 to a part of M7
passes through Punjab, which is the hub of agricultural activity of
Pakistan. Almost every part of the province is under cultivation. Punjab’s
recorded forested area is 1.66 million acres (excluding Linear Plantations),
which constitutes 3.26 percent of the total area of the province.16 It is
important to mention here that assessments about the location of roads,
its edifice, retaining, and mothballing are all interrelated and multifaceted
since these involve a number of challenges. It is said that the roads
constructed in the forests have significant impact on the surroundings, as
it is a breach in the nature’s system. A road in or through a forest is
constructed by number of alterations including changes in the
microclimate, soil erosions and even by removing the top soils. Moreover
any road in a forest cannot be created without cutting large number of
trees and bushes or without large-scale soil removal. It is estimated that
nearly 30 percent of the landscape area in any forest land is directly or
indirectly disturbed by any road construction. Not only that, the other
living beings like animals are also effected due to road building, not
mentioning here that a large number of wild animals are the victims of
heavy traffic on the roads.17

16 The major forest are irrigated plantations (comprises 25.6%), Riverain

Forests (10.6%), Scrub Forest (40.7%), Range lands (12.2%), Desert (2.3%),
and Coniferous forests (6.8%) and Mix Forest (Coniferous/Scrub) (1.8%
)’;”Atlas, Forest types R.M Circle 2014, GIS Lab: Development of Working Plan
Circle Punjab Forest Department, Govt. of Punjab,” Punjab Forest Department ,
https://fwf.punjab.gov.pk/system/files/RM%20Circle%20Part%201.pdf, last
accessed on 27 January 2021.
17 “Forest Roads: A Synthesis of Scientific Information,” United States
Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station,
General Technical Report PNW-GTR-509, May 2001, 1-5,
https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/gtr509.pdf.
66 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The M3 route (Faisalabad to Pindi Bhattiyan) passes through the

area that consists almost 90 percent of agricultural land and is mostly
cultivated. The land is irrigated by canals and tube wells, so there are no
natural forest trees; only Acacia, White Poplar, Mulberry, Maqrgosa and
Shesham trees are there which are used for fuel and furniture purposes.
The vast agricultural activity along the road is facilitated by the availability
and abundance of ground water. Sugar cane, wheat, corn and rice are the
commonly grown crops here. People are engaged in cultivation mainly for
the domestic and commercial consumption as the cultivated land produces
a high yield. Vegetables and seasonal fruits are also grown in this area. It is
estimated that approximately 5.25 sq.km of agricultural land was lost
during the construction of the present M3. Moreover, the vehicle
movement caused increase in hydrocarbons, Carbon Mono Oxide, and
Sulfur Oxide, with Nitrogen Oxide also present in the air. The increase in
chemicals in the atmosphere is damaging not only for the humans but
plants and wild animals alike. “Dust settles on leaves and can interfere
with pollination and photosynthetic function. If the accumulation is
significant, acidification of surface water can interfere with nutrient
uptake by roots, thus affecting growth… while NOx, SO2 and ozone can all
cause localized death of leaf tissue (leaf necrosis). Finally, plants can
absorb toxic pollutants such as lead from the air, making the consumption
of these plants hazardous.”18
The M4 Motorway, the extension of M3, starts from the end point
of existing Faisalabad-Pindi Bahtian M4 near Sargodha road Faisalabad. It
passes through Faisalabad, Tobatek Singh and Khanewal. Most of the land
of the road route is agricultural with a small commercial portion.19 Some
very important crops like Sugarcane, Fodder, Maize, Rice, Cotton, and
Wheat are the major products of this region. Citrus and Guava orchards
which are in abundance towards the northeastern side, are ultimately
replaced by Mango towards southwestern end. The area is also rich in
wood trees like Shisham and Kikar, while other species grown in the area
are Eucalypts, semul (Bombax ceiba), Mulberry, Beri and Khajoor, Neem,
Ber and Bakain.20 In one of the studies, it was revealed that for the section

18 Zia ur Rehman, “Environmental impact Assessment of Faisalabad-Pindi

Bhattian Motorway (M-3),” Masters of Science Thesis, Stockholm: Royal
Institute of Technology, 2007, 35-49.
19 “Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), Project 48402: Faisalabad-
Khanewal Motorway - Environmental Impact Assessment,” Asian Development
Bank, July 2015, https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/national-
motorway-m4-gojra-shorkot-section-faisalabad-khanewal-motorway-jul-
2015-eia.
20 Lamia Islam Khan, “Environmental Assessment of Faisal Abad- Khanewal-
Motorway M4,” (Lahore University of Management Sciences, 2014), 56-59,
http://121.52.153.178:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/13716 last accessed
on March 11, 2020.
CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 67

II of the M-4 52619 trees were cut from the agricultural fields on both
sides of the motorway. In addition, the most adverse impact of the project
was that it took out of production around 4794 acres of agricultural land.21
It is also pertinent to mention that during the period (2013-18) ‘there has
been a record increase in construction and extension of motorway and
highways throughout the country,22 especially in Punjab. This is of
importance since Punjab’s contribution to the overall agricultural
production of Pakistan is significant; if and when a vast area is affected
due to development projects it would definitely have consequences for the
country’s agronomy.
Meanwhile, the most immediate impact of this deforestation was
felt in both Punjab and KPK - both the provinces have been worse effected
by smog in the last four years during winter. Expansive areas in Punjab
were wrapped in a thick blanket of smog mainly due to an unrelenting
dry bout and the growing levels of air pollution. The two motorways, the
M1 and M3 were sometimes completely covered with dense fog. 23 Not
only that, ‘the levels of the dangerous particulates known as PM2.5, small
enough to penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream, had
reached 1,077 micrograms per cubic meter, 30 times more than the
government’s designated safe limit’.24 This has caused some serious health
conditions in Punjab every winter including difficult breathing, eye-
stinging and throat choking (especially in urban areas). Due to heavy smog
in the urban areas and the resulting lack of visibility, the main highways
were closed for traffic. An early contributor to this issue was a closely
knitted network of roads and highways constructed in the last decade in
Lahore and surroundings by cutting huge number of trees - around 395
trees worth Rs. 23,63,445, were cut down at the Sharqpur Forest Sub-
Division. The Supreme Court of Pakistan declared that ‘deforestation is not
only a loss for public exchequer but also dangerous for climate change… it
is taking toll on the lives of billions of people of the region and the world
and is also against the provision of Pakistan Environmental Protection Act,
1997 and therefore, it must be considered a very heinous crime’.25

21 “Environmental Impact Assessment, Project # 48402, 64-66.

22 “Several Road Projects Launched under CPEC,” The News May 3, 2018,
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/311964-several-road-projects-
launched-under-cpec/
23 Sehrish Wasif, “Air Pollution in Punjab is 20 Times the Safe Limit,” Express
Tribune, November 7, 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1551724/air-
pollution-punjab-20-times-safe-limit/
24 Mehreen Zahra Malik, “In Lahore, Pakistan, Smog Has Become a ‘Fifth
Season’,” New York Times (New York), November 10, 2018,
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/world/asia/lahore-smog-
pakistan.html.
25 Terence J. Sigamony, “Deforestation Dangerous for Climate Change,” The
Nation, February 18, 2017.
68 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Another giant road project under CPEC is the Karachi–Peshawar

Motorway: ‘A 6-lane access controlled Motorway having total length of
1,100 Km. It originates from Karachi through Motorway M-9 (136 Km) up
to Hyderabad and from Hyderabad onwards the road follows a virgin
alignment for 345 Km up to Sukkur. The Sukkur Multan section, 392 Km
long essentially follows the Left Bank of River Indus. The Motorway from
Multan to Khanewal and Abdul-Hakeem is designated as M-4 (101 Km)’.26
‘Karachi ranks 135 out of 140 in the world’s urban livability index. The
index is evaluated on the basis of social infrastructure, housing,
transportation, walkability, the green planning in the city and also the
employment, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (2010). The
high levels of dangerous pollutants, such as fine and ultrafine PM27 emitted
from highly polluting vehicles (particularly trucks), cause significant
health risks to urban populations. Fine PM is well documented to have a
clear association with several serious public health effects (for example,
significant increase in cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases that may
result in death or permanent disability). Nearly 80 percent of premature
deaths are being caused by high PM2.5 concentrations annually are in
Karachi.
Although trucks represent a minor fraction of Pakistan’s vehicle
fleet, they are a major source of pollutants of local concern. As the number
of registered vehicles increases in Pakistan, so does the level of air
pollution in urban areas, particularly in densely populated metropolitan
regions such as Karachi. Air pollution in Pakistan’s cities is the worst in the
South Asia. The concentrations of PM in Pakistan’s cities are much higher
than those experienced in the urban areas of countries like Bhutan, India,
and Sri Lanka. In addition, while these countries have adopted a number of
measures for reducing urban air pollution, Pakistan has yet to follow suit
and is paying the costs of increasingly high outdoor air pollution’.28 CPEC
is believed to be a game changer for Pakistan in terms of economic
development. But such claims usually fail to factor-in the impacts that such
projects might have on non-traditional sectors of security. Environmental
challenges are among such issues which are often overshadowed by the
drive for benefits. The proposed CPEC routes that pass through KPK
spread over to nearly 334.2 kms. The overall forest covered area of the
route is around 582,900 ha. Important to mention here is that the

26 “CPEC: China Pakistan Economic Corridor,” Govt. of Pakistan,

http://cpec.gov.pk/project-details/29, last accessed on January 26, 2021.
27 PM is particulate matter, PM1 is particulate matter of less than 1 micron and
PM2.5 is particulate matter of less than 2.5 microns.
28 Ernesto Sánchez-Triana, Santiago Enriquez, Javaid Afzal, Akiko Nakagawa,
and Asif Shuja Khan, “Cleaning Pakistan’ Air: Policy Options to Cost the
Outdoor Air Pollution,” World Bank (Washington D.C., 2014)72-74.
file:///C:/Users/Shaista/Downloads/CleaningPakistansAirPolicyOptionstoAd
dresstheCostofOutdoorAirPollution.pdf, last accessed on January 26, 2021.
CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 69

cultivable area is almost 2,109,344 ha which will end up being taken over
by the CPEC route.29
Table 1: CPEC Route in KPK and the Area Covered
Districts Route Route Main Cities
Length
Kohistan ≈ 134 km Sazin, Barseen, Dasu, Komila, Leo, Pattan, Dasu, Pattan
Palas, Dhup, Dubair
Shangla ≈ 26.7 km Besham, Shung, Dandai Besham
Battagra ≈ 41.5 km Thakot, Chanjal, Peshora, Battagram, Thakot,
m Chappargram, Phagora Battagram
Mansehra ≈ 59 km Sharkah, Icherrian, Shinkiari, Shinai bala, Shinkiari,
Dhodhiyal, Hathimera, Mansehra Mansehra
Abbottab ≈ 42 km Mast mera, Sajikot, Abbottabad, Khokar Abbottabad,
ad maira, Havelian, Irshad Nagar, Nowshera, Havelian,
Bhalder Bhalder
Haripur ≈ 31 km Mohri, Shah Maqsood, Chak Shah Haripur
Muhammad, South of Haripur and then Kot
Najibullah, Khattar Town
Source: https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id12846.html
The Karakoram Highway is a successful collaboration project with
China, that was completed in 11 years. It links the Northern Areas of
Pakistan with the main land: “from Hasan Abdal, the road winds through
Haripur, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Batagram, Thakot, Besham, Pattan, Dassu,
Sazin, Shatial, Chilas, Gilgit and Hunza, after which it crosses the
Khunjerab Pass at an altitude of 4,733 meters, to reach the Chinese
frontier”.30 The highway will be sharing the major burden of CPEC
logistics. It is estimated that up to 100 trucks a day will pass though this
highway after completion.31
The situation of food production in the province is already
substandard. At present less than 2 percent of the land is under cultivation
while around 1 percent is producing fruits and vegetables and some grain
crops. Wheat, barley, potatoes and maize are the major agriculture
products of this region. “Approximately 9 percent of the Northern Areas

29 Mahmood A. Khwaja, Sumbul Saeed, and Maham Urooj, “Policy Brief #59:
Preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Study of China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) Northern Route Road Construction Activities in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan,” January 2018, 9.
https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id12846.html last accessed on
January 26, 2021.
30 “Northern Areas: State of Environment and Development,” Government of
Pakistan, Northern Areas Administration, International Union for
Conservation of Nature Government of Pakistan
2003,https://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/nasoed.pdf, last accessed on
March 11, 2020.
31 “CPEC and the Environment,” Daily Times, November 9, 2017,
https://dailytimes.com.pk/136059/cpec-and-the-environment/
70 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

are occupied by natural forests and scrub, and 22 percent by rangelands

(primarily alpine pasture).32 For the 59.1-kilometre Hasan Abdal to
Havelian section of the six-lane E-35 highway, the project has deprived the
area of over 2,000 fruit trees and 25,500 non-fruit or forest
trees…moreover, the CPEC will rob the green belts from Haripur to Thakot
town in Battagram district of 70,000 matured trees including orchards”. 33
Most of the dense and natural forests in this region are located in the
south-western part. It is in the “Diamir District, the southern parts of Gilgit
District, the Punial area of Ghizar District and a few pockets of Baltistan
District (e.g., Basho and Kharmang). The forests (both private and
protected) cover some 281,600 hectares. This is equivalent to nearly 4
percent of the Northern Areas”.34 While in ‘Mansehra and the
surroundings, 13,784 trees measuring 200,000 cubic feet (cft) have
already been cut down from the Oghi and Darband forest areas of
Mansehra district, along with different areas in Battagram, Kohistan and
Torghar districts. The felled species include pine, scrub and some fruit
trees. In Siran forest division of Mansehra, which falls under the remit of
conservator forest for Lower Hazara, a total of 10,075 trees measuring
199,040 cft were chopped down in 28 villages along the CPEC route.
Further south, over 3,200 mature trees from Shimla Hills, Banda Sinjilya
and Thanda Maira village have been chopped off.”35
This is a serious situation. A giant portion of the forest
cover has been cleared to accommodate the new economic project. It has
disturbed the entire ecosystem of the region. Even though some parallel
projects for plantation have been launched by the present government but
the replacement of such loss cannot be achieved in short span of time. The
damage already caused will have consequences on the regional
environment for many years.

Conclusion
Urban development is a continuous process. The roads are one
essential feature for any urban development and are accepted as
guarantors of economic progress. At the same time construction of roads
also brings along a number of issues. In the South Asian region due to
unceasing increase in population, the governments are facing a number of
environmental challenges due to the growing demands for energy, fuel and
electricity. Pakistan is facing severe energy crisis since last two decades.
China Pakistan collaboration in the form of CPEC is a multibillion,

32 “Northern Areas: State of Environment and Development.”

33 In an EIA report prepared by the National Highway Authority (NHA) in 2015;
Muhammad Sadaqat, “Cutting Down Trees for CPEC,” Monthly Herald, May 4,
2017, http://herald.dawn.com/news/1153738
34 “Northern Areas: State of Environment and Development.”
35 Muhammad Sadaqat, “Cutting Down Trees for CPEC.”
CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 71

multitask and multitier project and is expected to solve many energy

problems of Pakistan. The six tracks highways along with the railways and
pipe lines have been planned to connect Gwadar port to Chinese cities. The
CPEC road network is designed to utilize the already existing highways
along with the construction of many road projects. It is from here the
challenges to the environment are erupting.
Pakistan is among the top 10 countries of the world where
deforestation is on rise. A number of new environmental issues like
increase in smog especially in Punjab every year is an alarming challenge.
The percentage of air pollution is continuously increasing in Punjab and
KPK due to the recently launched construction projects of roads and
highways. Vast cultivated and forest-covered areas were cleared and
thousands of trees were cut down for expansion and extension of roads,
although some even before CPEC was launched. Now it is expected that
with the new road network under CPEC, whenever it becomes operational,
there will be incessant course of traffic on these roads and highways. The
pollution index would further increase with excess of carbon dioxide,
noise and land pollution.
The CPEC will definitely bring prosperity and growth to Pakistan
but the need is to adopt a unified approach to deal with the
multidimensional challenges of economic growth and development on one
hand and environment on the other. As the WWF has pointed out in its
recent report that opting a nature based solution is needed to deal with
the challenges. There is a dire need of planning and management to meet
the possible environmental damages occurring due to CPEC. It could
initially be by reforestation. Since Pakistan has recently experienced heavy
rains, conserving rainwater with a proper manageable storage system, by
building small dams and by reviving natural waterways would definitely
help to deal with the issue. In this context the government’s drive to
increase plantation throughout the country is yet a positive move.
In order to avoid further deforestation the remaining roads and
highways must be constructed by avoiding densely forested and cultivated
areas along the CPEC routes even if some additional construction cost is to
be incurred. At least a double number of seed and trees should be planted
along the road immediately after the completion of any project. In fact, a
process of reforestation should be continued parallel to the deforestation.
It would also be helpful if the remaining CPEC route roads are preferably
constructed far away from the green areas such as the cultivated
agricultural lands, forests - where large number of trees are at mature age
and height, and the water resources. Moreover, since most part of the
route in Punjab and KPK is passing through vegetable and fruit farms, re-
vegetation projects should be immediately launched in alternative areas to
avoid farmers’ losses and of overall agricultural production. Deforestation
without proper reforestation may cause large number of environmental
problems, which can be handled by proper infrastructure development.
72 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Both the parties to the CPEC must be agree to adopt, dovetail development
projects with afforestation and implement such revamped initiatives at the
earliest.
Understanding the Syrian Crises 73

UNDERSTANDING COMPLEX
NATURE OF THE SYRIAN CRISES
Khurshid Khan & Ms Fouzia Amin

Abstract
By taking the lead from the ‘Arab Spring’, starting from January
26, 2011, the Syrian people launched peaceful protests against the
Bashar-ul-Asad regime’s policies, but it quickly turned into a full-
scale civil war, causing the death of over half a million people,
pushing Syria back into ‘Stone Age’. In the presence of external
players, including America and Russia in opposite camps; the
security state in Syria has become too complex. The US decision to
pull out its troops from Syria has helped Assad significantly
consolidate his grip over the country. Yet, a sense of durable peace
in Syria is still off the map due to the interplay of multiple factors.
In this research, Syria’s civil war has been analysed as a case study
through a combination of historical, descriptive and qualitative
research methods.
Keywords: Jasmine Revolution, Dictatorial Policies, Racism, Iron
Fist, Syrian Crisis

Introduction

S
yria is part of a distinct regional security complex of West Asia. It has
a rich history that starts around 2400 BC. Present-day Syria is only a
small segment of the ancient Syrian state which was divided by the
western powers in the post-Ottoman era. Present Syria is surrounded by
Lebanon to the southwest, Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to
the south, and Israel to the southwest. It is home to diverse ethnic and
religious groups.1 After becoming independent on April 15, 1946, Syria


Principal of Cadet College Palandri, Azad Jammu & Kashmir. Email:
[email protected]

Lecturer at the Department of International Relations, National Defence
University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected]
1 “History of Syria, Historical Background,” Nations Online,
https:www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/History/Syria-history.htm, accessed
January 10, 2019; Howard Hayes Scullard, “Home Geography & Travel
Countries Of The World –Syria,” Search Britannica, June 11, 2020,
www.britannica.com>...>Countries of the World.; “Map of Syria and Middle
74 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

continued to face political unrest until November 1970 when Lieutenant

General Hafiz-al-Assad, got hold of the country, after a bloodless military
coup. He ruled Syria for 30 years with iron hands and died on June 10,
2000. He was replaced by his son Bashar-al-Assad.2 Assad promised to
introduce reforms in the country to redress the grievances of the people
but did not follow it up. Instead, he took U-turn and followed his father’s
policies.3 As a corollary, restive population already motivated by ‘Arab
Spring’, started popular uprising in January 2011.4
To appease the masses, Assad announced several plans including
the lifting of the country’s 48 years old state of emergency.5 Yet, in the
absence of a well-thought-out strategy, he used brutal force to control the
protestors and called them ‘rebels’6 which forced them to take up arms.
The ‘rebels’ instantly started to receive foreign help. Initially, America
placed around 2,000 ground troops in the north and north-east of Syria to
support Syrian Kurds.7 Under the cover of anti-Assad forces, jihadist
groups like Islamic State/Islamic State of Iraq and Syria(IS/ISIS) also
entered Syria and penetrated in the ranks of rebels. Due to this change, the
US and its allies withheld their support to rebels, a step that helped Assad
to regain the lost territory from IS.8
In December 2018, President Trump took an hasty decision to
withdraw American troops from Syria by proclaiming that IS/ISIS was
defeated in Syria.9 In reality, his claim was as “bad as Obama’s dismissing

East,” Nations Online,www.nationsonline.org>oneworld>map>syria-map,

accessed June 27, 2020.; “Geography of Syria,” Fanack,
https://fanack.com/syria/geography/, accessed June 27, 2020.
2 “History of Syria, Historical background.”
3 “Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion,” BBC News,
September 3, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/10338256.
4 “Arab Spring: A Research & Study Guide,” Cornell University Library,
December 22, 2020, guides.library.cornell.edu › arab_spring › Syria.
5 CNN Editorial Research, “Syrian Civil War Fast Facts,” CNN World, April 9,
2020, https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/27/world/meast/syria-civil-war-
fast-facts/index.html.
6 “Syria: How it all began”, The World, April 23, 2011,
https://www.pri.org/stories/2011-04-23/syria-how-it-all-began, accessed
June 27, 2020.
7 Mark Landler, Helene Cooper, and Eric Schmidt, “Trump Withdraws U.S.
Forces from Syria, Declaring ‘We Have Won Against ISIS’,” The New York
Times, December 19, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/
12/19/us/politics/trump-syria-turkey-troop-withdrawal.html.
8 “Political Map of Syria,” Nations Online, https://www.nationsonline.org/
oneworld/map/syria-map.htm, accessed February 26, 2019.
9 Katie Galioto, “Trump Says ISIS Will Be 'Gone by Tonight',” Politico, March 20,
2019; Mark Landler, Helene Cooper, and Eric Schmidt, “Trump Withdraws
U.S. Forces from Syria, Declaring ‘We Have Won Against ISIS’.”
Understanding the Syrian Crises 75

them as the Junior Varsity or “J.V.” squad.”10 As stated by Seth G. Jones,

despite the IS’s loss of territory in Iraq and Syria, a diffused Salafi-jihadist
movement was far from defeated in Syria.11 American security officials
also opined that Trump’s statement “encourage(d) Daesh to stay in the
fight and demoralise(d) our allies.”12 The future of the Syrian public is yet
undecided. Its main cities have been turned into rubbles. By March 2019,
the armed conflict had left more than 500,000 people dead and half of its
22 million population has been uprooted and compelled to seek refuge
elsewhere.13
The nature of the Syrian crisis and its solution is too complex. It
involves around eleven regional states and two outside powers besides an
unaccounted number of Jihadist groups. It is a kind of ‘low-intensity mini
world war’ between the two blocs where Syria remains the battlefield.
Moreover, the existence of Syrian, Turkish and Iraqi Kurds across the
Syria-Turk border as the coalition is a danger for Turkish solidarity due to
which Ankara continues to shuffle between the two blocs. An in-depth
analysis of the Syrian crisis presents a bleak future but optimistically, a
‘stable political order’ in Syria and its surrounding regions can be restored
through political means.
This article is aimed at exploring the complex nature of the Syrian
crisis to suggest a possible way forward. The study tries to answer
following questions: what circumstances characterize the Syrian crisis?
What is the role of regional and extra-regional players in the crisis? And
what implications do these characteristics have for the future of Syria?
Thus, this paper intends to understand the complexity of the Syrian crisis
regarding the internal and external dynamics in the context of the

10 Marc A. Thiessen, “The 10 Worst Things Trump Did In 2018,” The Washington
Post, January 3, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-10-
worst-things-trump-did-in-2018/2019/01/02/f4025456-0eb0-11e9-84fc-
d58c33d6c8c7_story.html; Elizabeth Dent, “The UN-sustainability of ISIS
Detentions in Syria,” The Middle East Institute, Policy Paper, March 2019,
https://www.mei.edu/publications/unsustainability-isis-detentions-syria.
11 Seth G. Jones, and Nicholas Harrington, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist
Threat, Current and Future Challenges from the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, and
Other Groups,”Center for Strategic & International Studies, Nov, 2018, 46,
https://www.csis.org/analysis/evolution-salafi-jihadist-threat
12 Kim Sengupta, “Isis Emboldened by Trump Withdrawing US Troops from
Syria, say Western Officials,” The Independent, January 7, 2019,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-isis-trump-
us-troop-withdrawal-james-mattis-kevin-sweeney-brett-mcgurk-
a8716111.html
13 Matthew Weaver, “Syrian Refugees: More than 5m in Neighbouring Countries
Now, says UN,” The Guardian, March 20, 2019,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/30/syrian-refugee-
number-passes-5m-mark-un-reveals; “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad:
Facing down Rebellion.”
76 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

involvement of state and non-state actors on local, regional and

international levels. It has been divided into four sections: First, Arab
Spring, the beginning of the Syrian crises; second, Syrian crises, the
analysis from the theoretical prism, third, understanding complex
character of the Syrian crises; fourth, the impact of the US hasty decision
to pull out from Syria, a net assessment; fifth, the regional conflicts with
global outreach, an appraisal and finally, the suggested way forward.

Current Context of the Syrian Conflict

Since 2000, Bashar-al-Assad son of Hafiz-al-Assad, who was then
the Colonel in the Syrian army succeeded him. Bashar promoted himself to
the rank of field marshal and became head of the armed forces and
secretary-general of the Baath Party. During July 2000, in the symbolic
referendum, he was elected as an unopposed president.14 In the beginning,
he was willing to introduce the desired reforms but was quickly trapped
by the old guards. He maintained status-quo and continued to follow the
dictatorial policies of his father.15 Due to the simmering effects of the last
30 years and his failure to introduce reforms, the Syrian public got sick of
him hence, they started looking for a chance to revolt against the
governing style of the Assad regime.

Arab Spring: the Beginning of the Syrian Crises

In Tunisia, on December 17, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi, a fruit
vendor set himself on fire in protest, after being publicly humiliated by a
policewoman for not having a permit to sell the goods. Bouazizi’s
sacrificial act served as a catalyst, for the so-called ‘Jasmine Revolution’ in
Tunisia. Tunisia's public reaction set off uprisings across the Middle East
and North Africa that became known as ‘Arab Spring’.16
While many states the Middle East and Africa contained the
‘aftershocks’ of this incident but the countries like Libya, Syria and Yemen
were destroyed due to civil war. During this period, Jihadist groups were

14 “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion”; “Profile: Bashar-

al-Assad,” Aljazeera, April 17, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/
2018/4/17/profile-bashar-al-assad.
15 “Why is There a War in Syria?” BBC News, February 25, 2019; “Assad
Biography,” Aljazeera,https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/4/17/profile-
bashar-al-assad; and “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down
Rebellion.”
16 Joseph V. Micallef, “The Arab Spring: Six Years Later,” Huffington Post, January
29, 2017, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-arab-spring-six-years_
b_14461896.
Understanding the Syrian Crises 77

able to establish their bases in the affected regions.17 The West failed to
appreciate the possible fallout of the incident. Joseph V. Micallef concluded
that “our efforts to encourage it only spawned chaos and civil war, and will
have only served to destabilize the region even more.”18

Syrian Crises: An Analysis from the Theoretical Prism

The ‘relative gains’ as explained by the scholars from the
‘neorealist’ school of thought at times put the states at risk of losing
opportunities in a globalized world. According to the neorealist ‘relative
gain’ theory is single-minded in weighing the effects of action towards
power balances. Since it is a zero-sum game, states have to compete to
increase their own interests.19 An in-depth analysis of Russia and the US'
demeanour indicates that to protect their respective national interests in
the regional context, both countries are involved in fighting ‘war of
position’ in some form by applying ‘Structural Realism’ theory, coined by
Kenneth Waltz. The ‘war of position’ is a form of war where great powers
struggle over small third parties' control.20
Despite being seen as an inward-looking country, the US still
wishes to maintain the status quo as a sole ‘superpower’. It would not give
up the option of maximizing its power following Mearsheimer’s school of
thought. Joe Biden, the president-elect has already hinted to restore
America’s image in the world.21 Currently, in the global context, China and
Russia are unable to contest the US hegemonic aspirations. Yet, it is
believed that after staying in a shell for over twenty years, Russia under
the dynamic leadership of Putin has re-emerged as a strong competitor,
capable of opposing the US in the regional context if not globally. Moscow
has already consolidated its hold in Eastern Europe and Syria by applying
‘offensive realism’ and compelled the US and its allies to adopt ‘defensive

17 “The Arab Spring: A Year of Revolution,” NPR December 17, 2011,

https://www.npr.org/2011/12/17/143897126/the-arab-spring-a-year-of-
revolution; Micallef, “The Arab Spring: Six Years Later.”
18 Micallef, “The Arab Spring: Six Years Later.”
19 Feina Cai, “Absolute and Realtive Gains in a Real World,” E-International
Relations, April 28, 2011, https://www.e-ir.info/pdf/8447
20 Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (New York: Random House,
1979), chapter 5.
21 Susan B. Glasser, “Biden will Restore America’s Moral Leadership,” The New
Yorker, September 28, 2020, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/
2020/10/05/biden-will-restore-americas-moral-leadership; Yashwant Raj
“Biden to Return US to Paris Accord, Rescind Muslim Ban on Day One in
Office,” Hindustan Times, January 17, 2021,
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/biden-to-return-us-to-paris-
accord-rescind-muslim-ban-on-day-one-in-office-101610863079929.html.
78 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

realism’.22
In the changed security scenarios in the contested region of the
Middle East, America has accepted the dominant role of Russia. America
seems constrained as it is already embroiled in containing China in the
Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, the impact of Covid-19 on its economy and
the latest wave of racism and the resultant unrest in America have put it
on the back foot in dealing with global affairs. The vacuum is likely to be
filled by Russia and China in their respective regions of interest. In the
Middle East region, Turkey has also emerged as a strong competitor vis-à-
vis Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
Though, the US would still like to maintain its influence in the
region, but its initiatives in the recent past do not support that it would
reduce Russia’s influence over Syria.23 The rivalry between Russia and the
US has enabled Iran to exercise greater influence in the region and play a
key role in re-shaping Syria's future. In this ongoing great game, Saudi
Arabia and Palestine are the net losers. Riyadh is stuck-up in Yemen and
continues to lose the grip over the regional affairs vis-à-vis that of Iran and
Israel. Yet, it appears, the sole winner out of the Syrian crisis is none other
than Israel.
Finally, at present, both China and Russia would avoid a direct
conflict with the US and let it enjoy global clout. But despite their confines,
they would not give up their claims over the contested regions like the
South China Sea by China and Eastern Europe and Syria by Russia. They
would resist the US if such a situation arose. Yet, Washington’s displayed
attitude towards Libya, North Korea and Syria and it's ‘inward’ looking
trends since the recent past does not suggest that a clash between these
Great Powers is likely in the near future.

Understanding Complexity of the Syrian Crisis

“The Tunisians had already been freed. The Egyptians were on
their way to be free. We thought it was our turn to be free too,” Amer
Matar, an organizer of the first major protest in Syria said.24“With a harsh
crackdown, Assad’s regime helped turn a protest movement into a civil
war”, said Raja Abdulrahim.25 The peaceful marches were looking for

22 Brandon Valeriano, “The Tragedy of Offensive Realism: Testing Aggressive

Power Politics Models,” Empirical and Theoretical Research in International
Relations, Volume 35,Issue 2,May13 2009, 179.
23 “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion.”
24 “Arab Uprising: Country by Country – Syria,” BBC News World, December 16,
2013,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-12482309.
25 Raja Abdul Rahim, ‘“Assad or We Burn the Country’: How the Syrian Regime
Prevailed,” The Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2019,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/assad-or-we-burn-the-country-how-the-
syrian-regime-prevailed-11551886374.
Understanding the Syrian Crises 79

reforms, then quickly turned into hatred, pitching the Sunni Muslim
majority against the president's Shia Alawite sect.26 The civil war also
embroiled outside actors in the never-ending horror thus, making the
security state in Syria far more complex.27
Straightaway, Assad vowed to crush what he called ‘terrorism’
with an ‘iron fist’. Assad's regime used brutal force against his
opponents.28In reaction, defectors from the Syrian army/civilians formed
Free Syrian Army (FSA), backed by the US, its Gulf allies and Turkey to
fight against the Assad regime, thus Syria slided into a civil war. In a short
time, the rebels seized control of large parts of the country's north and
east. However, as indicated earlier, with the entry of IS in ranks and files of
the rebels, the US and its allies got panicked. They decided to withhold
their support to rebels’ on the plea that they were no more legitimate reps
of Syrian people. This in turn, enabled Syrian forces to regain control over
population centers in the South and West. Since 2016, support from Iran
and Russia has decisively turned the war's tide in Assad’s favor.29The map
below indicates the latest ground positions of various groups, fighting
inside Syria.
Figure: 1

26 “What's Happening in Syria?” BBC News, April 16, 2018,

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-12482309.
27 “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning,” Aljazeera, April 14, 2018,
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/4/14/syrias-war-explained-from-
the-beginning; “Profile: Bashar al-Assad.”
28 “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion.”; “The Arab
Spring: A Year of Revolution.”; “Syria's Civil War Explained from the
Beginning.”; Ian Black, “Assad Or We Burn the Country by Sam Dagher Review
– Scoop-Filled History of Syria’s Downfall,” The Guardians, July 15,
2019,https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jul/15/assad-or-we-burn-
the-country-sam-dagher-review.
29 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion.”
80 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The map indicates that after nine years of war in Syria, there is no
winner. Although Assad succeeded in stabilizing his regime, civil war
continues. The country stands devastated and its renowned cities have
been turned into rubbles. While the exact figures are not known, Syria's
conflict has already left around half a million people dead and over one
million injured.30 Moreover, the resettlement of displaced people who live
in prisoners- like environs within the country is yet another challenge.
Their children continue to suffer badly on account of healthcare and
education. The adjacent countries sharing refugees’ burden are already
under a lot of stress, they might collapse anytime. Above all, financially, the
Assad regime cannot support the masses as Syria continues to remain
under the US and European sanctions. Thus, the security situation inside
Syria is far from satisfactory and even if peace is restored, resettlement of
around half of Syria’s 22 million populations would be a daunting task.31
There is still no hope that the Syrian people would get peace soon.
Since 2014, the Geneva process duly backed by the UNSC held several
rounds of talks but could not succeed due to the vested interests of the
actors like Iran, Russia and Turkey. Astana, a lateral peace process to
Geneva, arranged under Russian leadership during 2016 also failed to
make any headway.32 Thus, in the absence of America from the scene, the
advantage has already gone to the Assad regime that has already
confirmed in clear terms that it will not succumb to rebels’ pressure.

The Role of the Regional and Extra-Regional Players

America’s Behavior Towards Syria
America and its regional allies played a key role in arming anti-
Assad groups, what they considered ‘moderate’ rebels. Right from the
start, virtually, the US did not involve itself deeply in the Syrian civil war
yet, it continued to back the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of
Kurdish-Arab fighters dominated by the People's Protection Units (YPG).
This group was readily available to fight against IS/ Assad regime.33 In

30 “Syrian Refugee Crisis: Facts, FAQs, and How to Help,” World Vision,
https://www.worldvision.org/.../syrian-refugee-crisis-facts, accessed
February 26, 2019. ; “Why is There a War in Syria?”; and “Syria's Civil War
Explained from the Beginning.”
31 Aron Lund, “Briefing: Just How ‘Smart’ are Sanctions on Syria?” The New
Humanitarian, April 25, 2019; “Syria: Sanctions against the Regime Extended
by One Year,” European Council, Council of the European Union, May 28, 2020,
1; Weaver, “Syrian Refugees: More than 5M in Neighbouring Countries Now.”
32 “Between Astana and Geneva: The Outlook of Conflicting Agendas in the
Syrian Crisis,” Aljazeera, Centre for Studies, January 3, 2017.; “Why is There a
War in Syria?”; and “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.”
33 Sirwan Kajjo, “Kurds in Syria: We Have Right to Respond to Turkish Attacks,”
Voice of America, October 31, 2018, https://www.voanews.com/a/kurds-in-
Understanding the Syrian Crises 81

2013 and 2014, despite Russia’s warnings, in response to the Assad

regime's chemical attacks, the US launched a missile attack against the
Syrian air force base and a chemical weapons site.34
Washington’s intimate support to anti-Assad forces was critical to
defeating the Syrian forces. The US decided to withdraw its forces from
Syria while keeping around 400 soldiers as part of ‘residual force’ to
continue its mission and safeguard its interests in the region. However,
despite criticism, Pentagon has denied providing the exact
strength.35America’s decision to shift its national security priorities from
counterterrorism to state threats would encourage Salafi-jihadists to
operate freely, “it would be a mistake to declare victory against terrorism
too quickly,” said Jones.36

Russia’s Critical Role in Defending the Assad Regime

Russia is a long-time trusted Syrian ally.37It entered the Syrian
conflict in 2015, having 63,000 troops already present on the ground.
Intense Russian air and missile strikes were decisive in the battles for the

syria-we-have-right-to...to...-/4637931.html, accessed March 4, 2019; Joe

Gould, “What’s the Next Step for ISIS? A Top US General Shares his Prediction
with Lawmakers,” Defense News, March 7, 2019,
https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/03/07/whats-the-next-step-
for-isis-a-top-us-general-shares-his-prediction-with-lawmakers/.
34 “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.”; “Why is There a War in
Syria?”; Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing Down Rebellion.”; “What's
Happening in Syria?”
35 Jeff Seldin, “US Troop Levels in Syria 'Quite a Bit Lower' with Help on the
Way,” Voice of America, May 31, 2019,https://www.voanews.com/middle-
east/us-troop-levels-syria-quite-bit-lower-help-way; Julian Borger, “Trump
Administration Challenged to Reveal Troop Levels in War Zones,” The
Guardian, April 22, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-
news/2020/apr/22/us-troop-levels-afghanistan-iraq-syria-military-foi. ;
Dion Nissenbaum and Nancy A. Youssef, “U.S. Military Now Preparing to Leave
as Many as 1,000 Troops in Syria,” Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2019,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-military-now-preparing-to-leave-as-
many-as-1-000-troops-in-syria-; Steven A. Cook, “400 American Troops Can’t
Do Anything,” Council of Foreign Relations, March 13, 2019,
https://www.cfr.org/article/400-american-troops-cant-do-anything; Ryan
Browne, “Top US General in Middle East Says Fight against ISIS 'Far From
Over',” CNN Politics, March 7, 2019, https://edition.cnn.com/2019/
03/07/politics/votel-isis-fight/index.html.
36 Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat.”
37 Macfarquhar, “Hafez al-Assad, Who Turned Syria into a Power in the Middle
East.”; “Syrian’s Kurdish Fighters Ready to Help Set Up 'Safe Zone'.”
82 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

besieged rebels’ strongholds of eastern Aleppo in late 2016 and the

Eastern Ghouta in early 2018.38
Despite diverging interests, Russia and America did not confront
each other directly rather, being common enemies, the two sides
coordinated their efforts to root out IS from the region.39Yet, at the UNSC
level, Russia and China repeatedly blocked the US-backed resolutions on
Syria. Russia also opposed the creation of the ‘No-fly zone’ within Syria.40
Turkey occasionally coordinated with Russia and Iran to stabilize the
region's security situation, despite criticism from the US.41

Role of the Regional Actors in Growing Anarchy

The rebels fighting against the Assad regime were supported by
Sunni-majority countries of the region, including Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi
Arabia. On the other side, Assad got support from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon-
based Hezbollah.42At one stage, the numbers of groups opposing the Assad
regime since the conflict began were in hundreds, with an estimated
100,000 fighters.43
Israel is one of the key players in the region that also remains
engaged in the Syrian conflict. As highlighted earlier, the ‘Arab Spring’
benefited Israel the most as its opponents in the region have almost
reached the verge of collapse. Occasionally, in coordination with the US,
Israel also launched air attacks against intended targets inside Syria. Israel
did not welcome the US decision to pull out its forces from Syria.44
Turkey is another regional actor, directly involved in the conflict. It
has enough military power to replace American forces in north-eastern
Syria and ensure the Syrian people's stability. David Pollock explained that
around 60,000 Kurdish-led SDF fought effectively alongside American
forces against IS for four years thus, they must be protected.45 Trump

38 “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing Down Rebellion.”; “Syria's Civil War
Explained from the Beginning; and “Why is There a War in Syria?”
39 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing Down Rebellion.”; “Syria's Civil War
Explained from the Beginning.”
40 “Syria's Kurdish Fighters Ready to Help Set Up 'Safe Zone'.”
41 Vladimir Soldatkin and Andrew Osborn, “Kremlin, after Summit, says No
Offensive Planned in Syria's Idlib,” Reuters, February 14, 2019,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-turkey-iran-
idUSKCN1Q31JC; Saroj Kumar Rath, “A New Era of Chaos in Afghanistan,”
Fountain Ink, Volume 8, Issue 5, March 2019, https://fountainink.in/essay/a-
new-era-of-chaos-in-afghanistan.
42 “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.”
43 “What's Happening in Syria?”
44 Landler et al., “Trump Withdraws U.S. Forces from Syria.”
45 David Pollock, “How the United States Can Still Keep Faith with Its Best Allies
in Syria,” The Washington Institute, January 3, 2019,
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-united-states-
Understanding the Syrian Crises 83

called the Kurds "incredible fighters" and "great people."46 Mike Pompeo
admitted the possibility of a conflict between Turkey and SDF and stressed
that this group should be protected against the Turk onslaught. Despite
America’s reservations, Turkey has already created a ‘safe zone’ along the
Syria-Turk border by defeating the SDF.47
Iran is yet another regional actor, closely associated with the Assad
regime. It has actively participated in Syria in support of the Assad regime,
directly and through its well-trained Hezbollah. As stated by Gen. Joseph
Votel, “the Iranian regime is seeking to dominate countries in the Middle
East.”48 In Iran’s opposition, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies armed and
financed the rebels who were later marginalized. Having failed to facilitate
regime change, their primary aim is to limit Iran’s influence in post-
conflict Syria.49Currently, Saudi Kingdom is involved in re-establishing its
diplomatic relations with the Assad regime
Taking advantage of the security situation, IS/ISIL also entered
Syria in 2013. It joined the rebellion against Assad forces, where it found a
safe-haven and easy access to weapons. After capturing large parts of Iraq,
it got hold of a vast territory in the north and along the Turkish border. As
earlier explained, the presence of ISIL in Syria alongside rebels was a big
shock for the US and its allies. Since 2014, they have withheld their
military support to rebels and in the process, helped the Assad regime to
regain control over a vast area.50 However, it is significant to highlight that
the number of Salafi-jihadist groups present in the region is at the highest
recorded level since 1980.51 Presently, they are scattered but they have the
resilience to come back as a united force. Even now, they are holding on to
Idlib-the north-western province of Syria.52

can-still-keep-faith-its-best-allies-syria; Dent, “The UN-sustainability of ISIS

Detentions in Syria.”
46 Kylie Atwood, “Trump Tells Worried Ally 'I Love the Kurds' in Hotel Meeting,”
CNN, January 29, 2019, https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/29/politics/trump-
kurds-hotel-meeting/index.html.
47 Todman, “Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria.” ;Fahim,
Dadouch and Khattab, “Turkey Launches Offensive against U.S.-allied Kurdish
Forces in Northern Syria.”; and “Turkey-Syria Border: All the Latest Updates.”
48 “US General: Iranian Regime Seeks to Dominate Countries of the Region,” Arab
News, March 7, 2019, https://www.arabnews.com/node/1463106/middle-
east.
49 Todman, “Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria,”; and “Why
is There a War in Syria?”
50 “What's Happening in Syria?”;Macfarquhar, “Hafez al-Assad, Who Turned
Syria into a Power in the Middle East.”; “Profile: Bashar al-Assad.”
51 Seth G Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat,”46.
52 “Why is There a War in Syria?”; Seth G Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-
Jihadist Threat.”
84 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Impact of the US Hasty Decision to Pull-Out from Syria

On December 19, 2018, President Trump stunned his allies by
announcing American troops' withdrawal from Syria after claiming victory
against ISIS and plunged the country's future into uncertainty.53As a
damage control measure, national security adviser, John R. Bolton, rolled
back Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria rapidly. He said for a
smooth withdrawal, “American forces may have to stay in Syria for months
or even years.”54
Trump’s claim beside, it is believed that still there are significant
threats of violence in Syria. A study conducted by Seth Jones reveals that
“despite nearly two decades of the US-led war against terrorism, there are
nearly four times as many Sunni Islamic militants today as there were on
September 11, 2001.” Attack data composed by CSIS indicates that due to
the presence of a large number of fighters inside Syria, there are still high
levels of violence and security concerns in Syria and Iraq from Salafi-jihad-
ist groups.55
For his impulsive decision, Trump was brought under tremendous
pressure by various American civil society segments, including
retired/serving Generals and bureaucrats/ politicians. As a result, he was
compelled to make changes in his decision to make it flexible.56 Although,
in his revised verdict, he gave four months of cushion time for withdrawal
of American troops but practically, there is a logjam. As pointed out
earlier, even the exact number of American troops present in Syria are
being kept secret by the Pentagon.
Trump’s decision has also undermined the security state inside
Syria which has direct consequences for humanitarian support provision.
Furthermore, since the financial support from the world to tackle with the
Syrian crisis is receding every year, it would be impossible for countries

53 “U.S. General Warns of Islamic State Resurgence as 'Caliphate' Collapse Nears

and Survivors Flee,” The Japan Times, March 8,
2019,https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/isis/
54 David E. Sanger, “Bolton Puts Conditions on Syria Withdrawal, Suggesting a
Delay of Months or Years,” The New York Times, January 06, 2019; Turkish
President Snubs Bolton over Comments That Turkey Must Protect Kurds.”
55 Seth G Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat.”; “Quick facts: What
You Need to Know About the Syria Crisis,” Mercy Crops,
www.mercycorps.org/...syria/quick-facts-what-you-need-know-about-syria-
c..., accessed January 10, 2019.
56 Eric Schmitt and Maggie Haberman, “Trump to Allow Months for Troop
Withdrawal in Syria, Officials Say,” The New York Times, December 31, 2018,
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/us/politics/trump-troop-
withdrawal-syria-months.html; Mark Landler, “Trump Withdraws U.S. Forces
from Syria.”; Gould, “What’s the Next Step for ISIS?”; “US General: Iranian
Regime Seeks to Dominate Countries of the Region,” Arab News.; “U.S. General
Warns of Islamic State Resurgence,” The Japan Times.
Understanding the Syrian Crises 85

like Jordan and Lebanon to feed around 1.6 million Syrian refugees that
continue to grow exponentially.57 Thus, there is a real possibility of more
death and miseries awaiting the Syrian people in the absence of American
support.58
A hasty US withdrawal decision has put Russia in driving seat as
the key power broker in Syria. In the absence of American troops, Kurdish-
Arabs' survival would be at stake because they would face two front
threats. As pointed out earlier, SDF has already given up its control over
20 miles’ areas along the Turk-Syria border. The possibility of American
endeavor to get limited autonomy for Kurdish-Arabs from the Assad
regime with an international guarantee has become quite low.59
The above argument aside, some scholars view that SDF would not
give up self-determination drive so easily because it still maintains a
strong force of around 60,000 soldiers yet, it would impede the campaign
against IS/ISIL and will set the stage for a new bloody, long-term struggle
for self-determination.60 An American withdrawal would also increase the
probability of terrorist groups re-establishing their sanctuaries in the
region due to ineffective governing institutions in fragile states like Syria
and contribute towards protracted instability in the region. Essentially, it
would be a setback for the American policy to deal with IS/ISIS. In the
absence of its boots on the ground, SDF would be unable to deal with
around 10,000 IS/ISIS members.61
Finally, the US decision would compromise its strategic interests in
the region and beyond. In the absence of its direct pressure, Assad would

57 Anthony H. Cordesman, “Looking beyond Syria and ISIS: America’s Real

Strategic Needs in the Middle East,” Center for Strategic & International
Studies, February 28, 2019; Weaver, “Syrian Refugees: More Than 5M in
Neighbouring Countries Now.”
58 Weaver, “Syrian Refugees: More Than 5M in Neighbouring Countries Now.”;
Cordesman, “Iraq, Iran, the Gulf, Turkey, and the Future.”
59 Mona Yacoubian, “A Month After U.S. Withdrawal, What is the State of Play in
Syria?” United States Institute of Peace, November 7, 2019,
www.usip.org>publications>2019/11>month-after..., accessed July 3, 2020,
1,2,3; Todman, “Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria.”;
Miriam Berger, “Here’s What We Know about the ISIS Prisons Controlled by
the Syrian Kurds,” The Washington Post, October 14, 2019,
www.washingtonpost.com>world>2019/10/12>insi....
60 Todman, “Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria.”;
Youssefand Lubold, “The Number is at Least Double Previous Estimates.”;
Dent, “The UN-sustainability of ISIS Detentions in Syria,” 1.
61 Seth G Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat,” 48; Berger, “Here’s
What We Know about the ISIS Prisons Controlled by the Syrian Kurds.”;
Yacoubian, “A Month After U.S. Withdrawal, What is the State of Play in
Syria?” 5; Nancy A.Youssef and Gordon Lubold, “The Number Is At Least
Double Previous Estimates and An Obstacle to Trump Administration Plans to
Withdraw U.S. Forces from Syria,” The Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2019, 1.
86 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

come hard through repression against his opponents, which might

inevitably encourage other Sunni groups to create some kind of organized
resistance, thus putting Syria back in a state of Syria ‘vicious cycle’. The
causes for unrest in Syria are likely to be far worse in the future than they
were in 2011.62 Hence, the legacy that America would leave in Syria is not
going to be cleaned soon.

The Regional Conflicts with Global Impact: An Appraisal

Since the 1980s, to protect its interests globally, America has been
selectively fighting the menace of terrorism. The US policy to fight this
menace has been driven by punitive measures which only created more
enemies against it. It is believed that none of the leading world players
inclusive of China, Russia and the US has been able to address the core
causes of the problems and devise a policy of reconciliation while dealing
with terrorism matters.
Since the start of the 21st century, America has been unable to
define its strategic goals correctly. First, it destroyed Iraq without looking
for an end game. In the backdrop of 9/11, it reacted impulsively and
declared a worldwide ‘war on terror’, without a clearly defined purpose.
Countries like Pakistan were even compelled to join the US in the war
against terrorism.63
By destroying Iraq during 2003, the US has since fought a series of
wars against terrorism in Iraq and Syria. Elsewhere in the region, America
alongside its allies also committed a blunder to oust Qaddafi and helped
trigger an unending low-level civil war in Libya. Its decision to withdraw
from Syria has already encouraged Russia and its allies to become major
actors in Syria and far stronger hostile competitors in the region.64
American strategy to punish Iran through sanctions and political
isolation has failed. It is opined that after defeating Saddam Hussain,
rather than protecting its strategic interest in Iraq, the US created
favourable environments for Iran to assert its influence in the region. With
tacit support from China and Russia, the current strategic/security
environment provides sufficient leverage to Iran over its regional rivals.65
Thus, in the recent past, Iran could see into America’s eyes by threatening

62 Goldberg, “Don’t Call the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute the ‘Middle East

Conflict’.”; Cordesman, “Looking Beyond Syria and ISIS.”; Youssef and Lubold,
“The Number is at Least Double Previous Estimates.”
63 "War on Terrorism,"Global Policy Forum, www.globalpolicy.org/war-on-
terrorism-html, accessed March 10, 2019.
64 Cordesman, “Looking Beyond Syria and ISIS.”; Middle East Bureau, “Middle
East Scenario in 2019,” NDT New Delhi Times, January 14, 2018.
65 Seth G. Jones, “War by Proxy: Iran’s Growing Footprint in the Middle East,”
Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 11, 2019.
Understanding the Syrian Crises 87

to block the smooth flow of petroleum out of the Gulf, directly impacting
the sustained global economy and the US trade.66
Concerning the settlement of the Palestinian issue, it was expected
that Trump might be able to agree with Israel. Still, his peace plan based
on a strategy of ‘outside-in’ rather than an ‘inside-out’, has no chance to
succeed.67 Instead, America has already pleased Israel by recognizing its
authority over the long-disputed Golan Heights and shifting its embassy
from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.68 Above all, Washington has successfully
managed to bring some Gulf states close to Israel including the United
Arab Emirates.69Thus, Israel remains the sole winner in the region as the
balance of power has undoubtedly been shifted in its favor vis-à-vis that of
Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Currently, because of its cold relations with its European allies, the
US is already struggling to persuade them to stay in alliance in their war
against IS/ISIS.70 However, there is a likelihood that President Joe Biden
would review the US's existing policies and might succeed in reviving
America’s relations with Europe and Iran.
An in-depth analysis of the regional and international security
scenarios proves that global peace is at stake. The regional coalitions are
failing and the global organs like the UNSC have become hostage to its five
permanent members. The so-called sole superpower has already hinted to
pull back from global responsibilities under ‘America first’ policy and the
impact of Covid-19 has stamped over its planned strategy.

Conclusion
Currently, the Syrian people are in deep water. Although, an in-
depth analysis of the Syrian crisis, presents a gloomy picture and is quite
tricky to carve the right course from the ‘fog of war’, but it is sincerely
believed that ‘where there is a will, there is a way’. To protect humanity in
Syria, Russia and the US duly supported by their allies need to adopt a
sincere approach to dig out a viable political solution to the issue at hand.
Because of the complex nature of the problem, it might take longer
to carve an acceptable plan. We should not leave Syrian people high and

66 Anthony H. Cordesman, “Iraq, Iran, the Gulf, Turkey, and the Future.”
67 Goldberg, “Don’t Call the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute the ‘Middle East
Conflict’.”
68 Mark Landler and Edward Wong, “In Golan Heights, Trump Bolsters Israel’s
Netanyahu but Risks Roiling Middle East,” The New York Times, March 21,
2019.
69 “Israel Signs Historic Deal with UAE That Will ‘Suspend’ West Bank
Annexation,” The Guardian, August 13, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/
world/2020/aug/13/..., accessed January 18, 2021, 1.
70 Nancy A. Youssef and Dion Nissenbaum, “U.S. Gives European Allies Friday
Target to Sign on to Syria Proposal,” The Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2019.
88 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

dry. The solution to the Syrian crisis is political and it is humanity that
needs to be supported. We should neither abandon the Syrian public nor
those developing countries like Jordon and Lebanon which are hosting a
large number of Syrian refugees. These countries deserve sustained
economic support to enable them to carry on their duties of helping the
refugees till their resettlement. Although IS/ISIS terrorists stand largely
defeated in Syria, it could still lead to failure if America turns its back on
the allies who have helped in winning that battle. It would be a mistake to
declare victory over terrorism so quickly. Hence, the US must avoid
snatching such a defeat from the jaws of its victory over the IS by keeping
its due attention and the required resources intact.
Trump's hasty decision to pull-out from Syria has already
destabilized his allies. Right now, SDF which is exposed to the threat of an
assault from multiple directions needs to be protected. The US must
stabilize Syria's security situation to gain time for working out a well-
thought-out plan to restore long-awaited peace in Syria. A stable regional
environment is critical to move the peace process forward. Russia has
emerged as the key power broker in the region. It can play a critical role in
improving the regional environment by helping Kurds get ‘limited
autonomy’ while persuading the US to help reintegrate Northeast Syria
into Assad’s control. It would prevent Turkey from seizing another large
portion of Syrian territory and avoid a further costly military campaign.
Finally, a poor and neglected Syria would continue to cause long-
term security problems for the entire world. Thus, the end game in Syria
depends on the behaviour and the level of economic support that the US
and its close allies are likely to commit for reconstruction and
resettlement of Internally Displaced Persons and the refugees settled
elsewhere.
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 89

A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT

EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS ON STUDENTS’ OUTCOME:
A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN
Syed Waqas Ali Kausar

Abstract
This study aims at exploring the impact of structural influences of
various educational systems on learners’ groups in Pakistan. The
study model is based on ‘Structural Influences Behavior Theory.
Mixed method design has been adopted while the research
methodology is based on a hypothesized cause and effect
relationship. The implications of the following three differing
education systems functioning in our country at the same time i.e.
madrassa, public sector and private sector are explored. A Likert
scale questionnaire has been used to collect the data while
Stratified non-probability random sampling has been employed to
select the sample, keeping in view the heterogeneity of the
population. The sample has been chosen according to the ratio of
the population benefitting from each of the education systems in
Pakistan. The selected sample has been further subdivided into
subgroups on the basis of differences prevalent within each
category of respondents. The result of SEM specifies that
curriculam, pedagogy and examinamtion system of the existing
educational systems in Pakistan significantly impacts
professionalism, leadership and social life of the students. Issues
like outdated curricula, weak padogigical practices and faulty
examination sytems also have strong bearing on professionalism,
leadership and social life of the students. Massive reforms,
therefore, are long due in the education system of Pakistan to bring
it at par with international standards.
Keywords: Curriculam, Pedagogy, Examination System, Structural
Influence Behaviors, Education Reform


Assistant Professor at Government & Public Policy, National University of
Modern Languages (NUML), Islamabad. Email: [email protected].
90 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Introduction

E
ducation is an instrument for socio-economic and political
empowerment of people. It requires more creative and innovative
interventions in modern era to remain relevant to the needs of the
nation. Nations equipped with efficient and modern education systems are
always progressive, dynamic and forward-looking while those failing on
this count are, more often than not, ill-equipped to claim a covetous
position in the comity of nations. A quality education system in fact helps
create a generation which, in the final analysis of things, acts as a watch-
dog to promote accountability, civil liberties and good governance.
Education and economic development are tied together in a strong
nexus with each other which was established by a study of 190 countries,
revealing that 16 per cent of the wealth production of the world comes
from physical capital, such as roads, buildings and dams, etc., 20 per cent
from natural resources and 64 per cent from skillful and educated human
capital1. Education is the shortest route to knowledge which ultimately
leads to the production of wealth and power.
To underline the overriding importance of education, Japan came
up with a slogan in 1872, “no community with an illiterate family or family
with an illiterate person”2 which, in years ahead, made it a leading country
in the realm of technology. Article 25A of the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan
also acknowledges the importance of education, guaranteeing that, “the
State shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age
of five to sixteen years in such manner as may be determined by law.” 3
Education is mostly considered a public service which should be provided
to the students without any discrimination, irrespective of their
affordability, and mainly as the government’s responsibility4. It is also a
fact that Pakistan is one of the nine countries which account for 70 per
cent of the total illiterate population of the world5 and occupies 113th
position out of 125 nations in literacy rate. Currently, the literacy rate in
Pakistan at very low level and only 60 per cent of Pakistan is literate and
40 percent of the literature diaspora is directly or indirectly linked with
Madrasah system6. In other words, 40 per cent out of 50 per cent literate
Pakistanis are associated with a Madrassah commonly considered as home
to the lower class of the society. There are 8.5 million children between

1 UNICEF, The State of World's Childern,(Washington, DC: UNICEF, 2002)

2 Sirajuddin Ahmed, Universal Quality Education: A Challenge to the Whole
World(National Book Foundation, 2012)
3 Right to Education, 1973.
4 Shahid Siddiqui, Rethinking Education in Pakistan: Perceptions, Practices, and
Possibilities (Paramount Publishing Enterprise, 2007)
5 Ibid.
6 Pakistan Economic Survey, "Education Statistics," Ministry of Finance,
Islamabad, 2014, Ch 10, 145.
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 91

the age group of 5-9 years, while only 6.6 million of them get a chance to
enter into the primary school. Unfortunately, only 0.33 million out of them
make it to higher education each year7. In other words, 12.36 million
teenagers are added to the population every year, without any vocational
skill or market-oriented education.
The enrollment rate in Pakistan is 50 per cent at primary level,
while almost 25 per cent of the enrolled students drop out before
completing the level. In other words, only 25 per cent of the students
enrolled for primary education make it to the secondary education level
and only 10 per cent of them complete their secondary education8.There
are only 3 per cent students who go for higher education either within the
country or abroad. Those who opt for higher education mostly belong to
the middle income or high income families and only 50 percent of these
students join the mainstream government and private sector jobs. One
can, therefore, safely claim that the education system is so flawed and
archaic that it is inherently incapable of producing a society fashioned on
the principle of parity, merit and equal opportunities for all.

Objectives of the Study

The purpose of the study is to:
1. Evaluate the social, professional and leadership qualities of
students of different educational systems in the context of
existing knowledge-based economy
2. Determine whether the learning of the students of different
educational systems in Pakistanis is effective in with regard to
curriculum, pedagogy, and examination system
3. Explore the impact of different educational systems on
students’ outcome in Pakistan through structural indicators.
Research Questions
Following are the key research questions of the study:
1. To what extent is the education of the students of different
educational systems effective in existing knowledge-based
economy?
2. Is there any difference in the outcome of students studying in
different educational systems with regard to international
standards and market needs?
3. What do the structural indicators reflect about the impact of
different educational systems on a student’s outcome in
Pakistan?

7 Ibid.
8 Ibid.
92 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Hypothesis
H1. There is a significant impact of curriculum on students’ outcome
H2. There is a significant impact of pedagogy on students’ outcome
H3. There is a significant impact of examination system on student’s
outcome
Literature Review
Pakistan was established through a democratic process but the
democratic governments in Pakistan have not been able to deliver services
to the general public, provide basic education, maintain the rule of law and
establish a model of good governance in the country since 1947.9
Unfortunately, successive governments have failed to develop a quality
education system in Pakistan.
Before the creation of Pakistan in 1947, the education system was
divided into two categories under the British Raj in India: religious
education and secular education. The concept of this type of separation
between religious and secular education is rarely noted in the history of
Islam and people were unaware of it before the British rule in the sub-
continent.10 This segregation was further widened with the passage of
time and now, the religious education is imparted by religious institutions
known as Dini Madaris while secular education is delivered by the
government and private schools.
On the basis of this segregation, different education systems came
into being:1) private education system; 2) public education system; and 3)
Madrassah education system.11
Private sector schools are further divided into two categories to
cater to the needs and requirements of the students coming from affluent
and middle class segments of the society. People with better financial
prospects and status send their children to elite schools while students
with financially humble backgrounds attend either average private or
public sector schools. Although, the education systems in Pakistan do not
follow uniform curricula, yet teaching of non-theological subjects along
with basic religious education is common.12 It shows that in Pakistan,

9 Sirajuddin Ahmed, Universal Quality Education: A Challenge to the Whole

World.
10 Sultan Ali, Madrasah Reform and State Power in Pakistan, (Friedrich Naumann
Foundation for Freedom, 2012), 65.
11 Syed Waqas Ali Kausar, and Abdul Wahid Sial, "The Impact of Systematic
Structure of Madrassahs on Student's Outcomes in Pakistan: do They Need
Structural Reforms?" Journal for the Study of Religions and Ideologies 14, no.
41 (2015): 127-147.
12 Monazza Aslam, and Rehana Siddiqui, "The Determinants of Student
Achievement in Government and Private Schools in Pakistan [with
Comments," The Pakistan Development Review (2003): 841-876.
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 93

there are three different types of education systems which are actually
class-based institutions.
When we talk about Madaris (plural of Madrassahh), it is generally
considered a kind of system of religious education prevalent in India,
Pakistan and Bangladesh. In the history of Islam, Madaris were a center for
learning of different subjects including science, administration, arts,
religion etc. Today, the curricula being followed at Madaris in Pakistan do
not include non-theological/ modern subjects such as Chemistry, Biology,
Computer, English etc13. Even basic subjects like Mathematics, Science and
Computer Studies are not included in the curricula till the secondary level.
Although Madaris play a significant role in providing education to poor
children of Pakistan, yet they have an outdated curriculum — some still
teach geometry from Euclid and medicine from Galen. Emphasis is put on
rote learning rather than deeper exploration and study of the Quran, and
considerable prestige is attached to becoming a hafiz––learning the Quran
by heart.14Many critics opine that people running Madaris are resistant to
change, and are only doing it to maintain their constituency, thus running
these institutions as their dynastic regimes.15
Similarly, for public schools, the curriculum is mostly driven by
state-mandated objectives and it will soon be driven by the Common Core
State Standards through National Curriculum Council (NCC).16 These state-
mandated objectives also drive the state standardized testing that all
public schools are required to take. Public schools are much diverse in
terms of ethnicity, socio-economic status, academic ranges and needs of
their students.17 The primary objective of education is to create a positive
social and economic impact on society at large. It should have a major role
in the betterment of the civil society, economic development, and
fomenting civic sense, peace and stability18. In this regard, indicators are
not encouraging in Pakistan. It is because of the reason that the
government has not been able to realize the importance of need-based and
market-oriented education. Although some government schools, like cadet
schools, teach need-based and market-oriented subjects but in general,
they offer the state-mandated curriculum.19

13 Ibid.
14 Peter Bergen, and Swati Pandey, "The Madrassa Scapegoat," Washington
Quarterly 29, no. 2 (2006): 115-125.
15 Ashok K. Behuria, "Sects within Sect: the Case of Deobandi–Barelvi Encounter
in Pakistan," Strategic Analysis 32, no. 1 (2008): 57-80.
16 "National Curriculum Framework Pakistan,” Ministry of Federal Education &
Professional Training, 2018, https://www.pc.gov.pk/uploads/report/NCF.pdf
17 Ibid.
18 Ibid.
19 Joan Ballantine, XinGuo, and Patricia Larres, "Psychometric Evaluation of the
Student Authorship Questionnaire: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis
Approach," Studies in Higher Education 40, no. 4 (2015): 596-609.
94 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Practically, the government has very little influence on designing

the private school curriculum. Though it acts as a regulatory body, but
these school systems largely develop and implement their own curricula
and assessment system.20The curricula being followed in private school
system reflect somewhat of an effort to design them in accordance with
international standards. Private schools lay heavy emphasis on teaching of
the English language.21 The students enrolled in private schools mostly
come from urban areas and show better performance as compared to the
students representing public sector schools. Basically, the achievements of
students are also generally affected by their teachers’ teaching
methodology and overall conduct22. The present education system in
Pakistan is largely class-based. Children with weak financial backgrounds
mostly join Madaris or public schools, the students belonging to the
middle class families prefer private schools, while the elite class opts for
highly prestigious schools in the country. The inherent difference in
schooling opportunities available to the students belonging to various
economic classes in the society, from poor to the elite class, in terms of
their curriculum and quality of education, greatly affects their job
opportunities and their roles/standing in society. It is actually the
influence of differences in education system on students which causes
conflict, separation and divide in the society. Our theoretical model is
based on Senge (1994) theory called “structure’s influences behaviour’.23
As per the theory of ‘structural influences behavior’, there are
three dimensions involved in the existing educational system in Pakistan,
including the Systematic Structure (generative), Patterns of Behavior
(responsive) and Events (reactive). Though the outcomes of different
educational system in Pakistan produces different types of graduates (as
per the theory, different people in the same structure tend to produce
qualitatively similar results) in the market such as generally low incomes
jobs like clerics and others are associated with Madrasah education and to
some extent government school system) and graduates who secure high
level jobs (private school system). This is mainly due to the difference in
quality of education as private educational institutions are better in almost
all the important aspects of teaching and learning in Pakistan including,
effective class management, expertise of teachers, and staff

20 Sabiha Mansoor, "Regional Languages of Pakistan: Issues and Concerns for

Language Planning in Higher Education," Emerging Issues in TEFL: Challenges
for Asia (2009): 31-58.
21 Ibid.
22 Ibid.
23 P. M. Senge, "Prisoners of the System, or Prisoners of Our Own Thinking, (The
Fifth Discipline: The Art And Practice of the Learning Organization 1994), 45.
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 95

responsiveness24.
It shows that there are three types of generative structures which
cause their own crisis (responsive) such as Madaris generally produce
clerics; government school system brings into being blue collar workers
(clerical staff and workers for menial/labor jobs) and the private school
system generates people for the white collar jobs (high level officials). This
kind of division causes (reactive) conflict, separation and discord in
society which further fuel the spirit of fragmentation, frustration and
extremism. It is, therefore need of the hour that measures are taken to
introduce a basic uniform education standard in Pakistan, to address the
challenges the country is facing at the moment.

Methodology
The researcher has employed various methods to design and
gather quantitative and qualitative data for the study. The hypothesized
research design has been employed to show cause and effect relationship.
The aim of constructing the current model is to explore the effects of the
existing education systems on a students’ outcome. In order to develop
theoretical framework, conceptual understanding was built around the
‘Structural Influences Behaviour Theory,’ that lies in the domain of
educational world (Art and Practices of Learning Organization), but also
tested in the real world behaviours beer game.25 According to this theory,
different educational systems, result in various weaknesses and the
deficiencies (effects) in students in the areas of sound professional career,
becoming vibrant members of civil society and having qualities of
leadership, as according to this theory, the crises are related to the
internal systems while keeping external forces and individuals
secondary26Literature review on education system reveals that most of the
education related structural factors and their variables involve more than
one dimension and indicator that warrants the use of a latent or
endogenous variable model. Six latent variables have been taken in the
model on the basis of widespread support from the previous literature.
For this purpose, the researcher employed the Structural Equation
Modeling (SEM) to explore effects of latent variables,27like curriculum,
pedagogy and examination system on a student’s outcome vis-a-vis

24 Muhammad Rizwan, Comparative Study on Educational Management in

Public and Private Institutions in the Twin Cities of Pakistan, REM - Research
on Education and Media, 8, (2016).
25 Peter M. Senge, Learning Organizations, (Cambridge: Gilmour Drummond
Publishing, 1995).
26 Peter Senge, "Building Learning Organizations," Knowledge Management
(2004): 19.
27 J.F., Hair, W.C. Black, B.J. Babin, R.E. Anderson, and R.L. Tatham, Multivariate
Data Analysis 5, no. 3, (1998) : 207-219.
96 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

professionalism, socialism and leadership in Pakistan. Similarly, tT-test

and Kruskal Wallis Rank test were used to compare the predefined or
standard value with respondent’s opinion. Standard value was 4 (agree)
implies that respondents fulfil the laid down criteria or near to standard
(insignificant difference), it shows that they have relevant tested quality
and are admitting this fact.28

Development of the Questionnaire

The instrument has been developed in light of the review of
existing literature on the subject. Concepts used in the questionnaire have
been taken from different studies carried out in past.29 In order to ensure
content validity, the correction and reviews were carried out by public
policy makers from Ministry of Education. The questionnaire was edited,
with addition and deletion of some items, while it was edited and
reviewed by three academicians’30 to ensure its clarity, accuracy and
authenticity. Likert scale is used to measure items, with the range from 1-5
(where 5 = strongly agree, 4 = agree, 3= neutral, 2= disagree and 1=
strongly disagree). Based on the completion of the review of observations
by experts, necessary changes were incorporated in the questionnaire and
employed for the pilot testing. Generally Alpha value 0.70 or more than
this indicates better reliability of items of questionnaire. The Cronbach’s
alpha values for all questions is ranged from 0.71 to 0.87; indicating it as
good reliability as shown in Table 2.

Sample
Stratified Non-probability sampling was chosen to select the
sample keeping the heterogeneity31 of our population in consideration.
School-going population of Pakistan was divided into three broader
categories, namely public sector students, private sector students and
madrassa students. These categories are mutually exclusive (särndal et al.,
2003) in characteristics like ownership, control, examination system,
structure and curriculum. For this study, the sample comprised of 800
respondents from the three education systems discussed above. The
proportion of sample was assigned according to their population
magnitude, such as 300 (37 per cent) from public schools, 150 (19 per

28 Carl-Erik Särndal, BengtSwensson, and Jan Wretman, Model Assisted Survey

Sampling (Springer Science & Business Media, 2003)
29 Ibid.
30 Sohaib Sultan, PhD in Education, AIR University, Shahid Habib, PhD in
Governance and Policy, National University of Modern Languages (NUML),
Sajid, PhD in Education, National University of Modern Languages.
31 Carol A. Markowski, and Edward P. Markowski, "Conditions for the
Effectiveness of a Preliminary Test of Variance," The American Statistician 44,
no. 4, (1990): 322-326.
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 97

cent) from private schools, 250 (32 per cent) from Madaris and 100(12
per cent) participants from elite class schools. Then Non-probability
random sampling was employed within each stratum for the selection of
sample. Sample of religiuos education system was further divided into
subgroups (strata) on the basis of different schools of thought, such as
Brailvi, Deobandi, Jamat-e-Islami, Ahl-e-Tashi and Salafi . The proportion
of sample was assigned on the basis of their proportion in population,32
such as125 students (50 per cent) from Brailvi school of thought, 50
students (20 per cent) from Deobandi and Ahl-e-Tashi schools of thought
and 25 students (10 per cent) from Salafi school of thought as shown in
Table 1. For the selection of respondents within each school of thought,
Non-probability random sampling was employed. Questionnaires were
delivered and collected from all respondents either personally or by
means of the registered postal services. The participants included
graduates in different fields of study and Ulema (religious
graduates/clerics). SEM analysis is fairly sensitive to the ratio of sample
size. As a result, it is suggested in different studies that 50+ 8m or 300 and
above observations should be sufficient for SEM33. In the current study,
800 observations have been availed for SEM analysis.

Table 1: Sample of the Study

Respondents Public Private Madrassah Elite class schools
Male 200 100 200 50
Female 100 50 50 50
Madrassah Deobandi/Jammat-e-Islami Bralvi Shia Salfi
Male 40 100 40 20
Female 10 25 10 5

Findings
Reliabilty and Validity of Instrument
For researchers, it is important to conduct validity and reliability
analysis of the variables and their dimensions prior to the testing in the
model. For this research, tests to ensure validity were carried out in three
phases which inlcude unidimensionality in fitst phase,, reliability in second
phase and and convergent validity at the end. Unidimensionality which
was checked by employing Confirmatory Factory Analysis (CFA) and
Comparative Fit Index (CFI), is the quality of measuring constrcut measure
to know how different elements in a construct are measures similar.34

32 Xiangrui Meng, "Scalable Simple RandomSampling and StratifiedSampling," In

International Conference on Machine Learning ( 2013): 531-539.
33 Ibid.
34 Jodie B. Ullman, and Peter M. Bentler, "Structural Equation Modeling,"
Handbook of Psychology (2003) : 608.
98 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Cronbach alpha value of each variable was calculated to ensure

reliablity of scaleSummary of the both elibilty and validity of the
instrument have been shown in Table 2 showing that based on these
values variables are suitable for the model for further analysis.

Table 2: Summary of Instrument Reliablity and Validity

Factor Indicators CFI Factor Loading Cronbach's alpha
Curriculum 0.994 0.72
Analytical Development (CR1) 0.526
Synthesis development (CR2) 0.542
Intellectual development (CR3) 0.735
Pedagogy 0.916 0.71
Instructor attributes (PDG1) 0.803
Class Rooms Standard (PDG2) 0.661
Learning Environment (PDG3) 0.768
Examination system 1 0.851
Predictive Validity (ES1) 0.678
Content validity (ES2) 0.636
Criterion Validity (ES3) 0.745
Reliability(ES4) 0.661
Objectivity(ES5) 0.681
Feasibility (ES6) 0.751
Socialism 0.933 0.821
Civic Engagement (SL1) 0.751
Civic Participation (SL2) 0.768
Social connectedness(SL3) 0.84
Professionalism 0.952 0.712
Cognitive Skill (PF1) 0.84
Problem solving skill (PF2) 0.671
Communication Skill (PF3) 0.803
Leadership 1 0.87
Self –Consciousness (LD1)
Self-Discipline (LD2) 0.626
Self-Reliance (LD3) 0.852
Self-Esteem (LD4) 0.835
Self-Respect (LD5) 0.681
Possession of Institution (LD6) 0.751

Model Fitness
The sample size of the study consists of 800 graduates from
different educational systems. To check the fitness of the model, model fit
indexes such as GFI, AGFI, NFI, CFI and RMSEA35 were employed and
shows the standard values of GFI, AGFI, NFI, CFI and RMSEA (2.89, 0.788,
0.738, 0.910, 0.891, and 0.067 respectively). All values are within the
prescribed standard and shows that constructed model is statistical fit.

Findings of Model
To test the hypothesis, SEM path analysis was used . Figure 1 and
Table 3 shows thte beta coefficient of pedagogy regading leadership, Civic
life and professionalism are -0.159, 0.402 and 0.24 respectively significant
at 99 per cent confidence level (p<.001). H1 (Hypothesis 1) hypothesized
that pegagody significantly influences students'learning and outcome. The
SEM results support Hypothesis 1 but this effect in the driving context is
negative. All the dimensions of the contribution to the Pedagody are large.
Likewise, the curriculum's beta coefficient on leadership, civic life, and
professionalism is -0.192, 0.503, and -0.271, respectively, p <.001. H2
assumes that the curriculum has a significant influence on students. The
SEM result supports the second hypothesis but this effect is negative for
civic and professional life and positive for leadership. All elements of
latent varraibles of curriculam leadership, Civic life and professionalism
are -0.591, 0.886 and 0.994 respectively significant at 99 per cent

35 Ibid., 534.
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 99

confidence level (p<.001). H3 assumed that exmination system in Pakistan

significantly influences students’ effectivenes.

Discussion and Analysis

The curricula being followed at Madaris do not include non-
theological /modern subjects such as Chemistry, Biology, Computer
studies, English etc. Even the subjects like Mathematics, Science, English
and Computer are not included in the curricula till secondary level36.
Madaris place heavy emphasis on the teachings of Arabic and Persian
languages which area necessary requisites to be an Aalim (Cleric or
religious scholar)37. Although some Madaris teach subjects offered in other
education systems but generally they offer a faith-based curriculum. The
national language of Pakistan, Urdu or the regional languages are
generally employed as the medium of instruction in Madaris. However,
examinations of Madaris are organized by the central boards representing
their particular sectarian associations. Madrasa students get their
graduation degree of being a cleric after 8 years of Dars-e-Nazami course,
which starts after completing the basic education. The degrees are not
divided into levels as in formal education i.e. secondary (matriculation),
higher secondary (intermediate) and bachelors (graduation). The degree
issued to a madrasa student, after successful completion of an eight years
long course, is equivalent to masters’ degree in Islamic studies38. They
generally take the research work done by their predecessors as final and
abiding, without questioning the validity of their studies. This tendency
discourages young scholars from analyzing, correlating and using
knowledge for research without preconceptions. As a result, Madaris
produce a workforce, which is neither skilful nor market-oriented. It
causes lack of professionalism in students as shown in Table 5.
Students of Madaris can not utilize the option of higher studies in
non-theological subjects by getting admission in conventional colleges and
universities. Due to this fact, they do not get equal opportunities as availed
by students coming from other education systems to pursue their
ambitions.39 The post-degree employment options of Madrassah students

36 Calvin Smith, and Kate Worsfold, "WIL Curriculum Design and Student
Learning: A Structural Model of their Effects on Student Satisfaction," Studies
in Higher Education 39, no. 6 (2014): 1070-1084.
37 Ibid.
38 Syed Usman Shah, S. W. Kausar, and Abdul Wahid Sial, "Need Base Education
and Madrassa System: A Comprehensive Analysis of Mainstream Schools of
Thought in Pakistan," Merit Research Journal of Education and Review 2
(2014): 19-27.
39 Van Den Wijngaard, Oscar, Simon Beausaert, Mien Segers, and WimGijselaers.
"The Development and Validation of an Instrument to Measure Conditions for
Social Engagement of Students in Higher Education," Studies in Higher
Education 40, no. 4 (2015): 704-720.
100 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

are, therefore, limited.40 They are not able to join the mainstream
government and private sector jobs, except as Khateebs and Imams.41
Madaris are mostly charitable institutions and almost all of them depend
on charity for their financial expenditures. They have their designated
charity collectors who go door to door to collect money. Consequently,
Madrassah associates are more progressive in terms of civic engagement,
political participation and social connectedness when compared with
other citizens of the society.42 As Madaris are run on the basis of charity, it
automatically develops a strong relationship between civil society and
these institutions.
Similarly, for public schools, the curriculum is mostly driven by the
state mandated objectives and Common Core State Standards. Curricula
being followed in the government school system is based on non-
theological/modern subjects such as Chemistry, Biology, Computer,
English etc. and the basic subjects such as mathematics, science and
computer studies are also included in the curricula of government schools
system. In addition, social sciences and humanities subjects such as
sociology, business studies, religious studies, governance, and arts and
literature are not included in the curricula of government school system at
secondary level. There are only 9 per cent students in Pakistan those could
proceede to or enrolled in tertiary education which is very low as
compared to its neighbouring countires.43 Similarly, government schools
system has a typical system of class room management and organization.
The assessment and evaluation system being followed at public schools is
also out dated.44 No effort is being made to develop new assessment skills
and strategies to make the learning more effective. Teachers rarely use
modern motivational techniques to help students perform better in
studies rather they prefer using corporeal punishment to get the desired
results.45 Teachers hardly interact with the parents to involve them

40 Wei Wei, David DeBrot, and Carol Witney, "The Role of Leadership in Small
Scale Educational Change," Asia Pacific Journal of Education 35, no. 1 (2015):
40-54.
41 Peter K. McGregor, Jason Birt, Kelly Haynes, Ruth J. Martin, Lawrence J.
Moores, Nicola J. Morris, Brender Willmott, and Andrew C. Smart. "Student
Engagement and Enhancement through Research and Scholarship," Higher
Education Skills and Work-Based Learning 5, no. 1 (2015): 86-94.
42 Kevin R. McClure, "Madrasas and Pakistan's Education Agenda: Western
Media Misrepresentation and Policy Recommendations," International Journal
of Educational Development 29, no. 4 (2009): 334-341.
43 R. Hunter, Education System Profiles, World Education News Reviews,
February 2020, https://wenr.wes.org/2020/02/education-in-pakistan
44 Ibid.
45 Catherine McCauley-Smith, Sharon J. Williams, Anne Clare Gillon, and Ashley
Braganza, "Making Sense of Leadership Development: Developing a
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 101

actively in the development and learning of students. Parents are often

unaware of the progress of their children. Very few teachers use teaching
aids. Basic modern equipment necessary for contemporary pedagogical
practices is still not available in most of the teaching institutions in the
public sector. Scarcity of resources along with untrained human capital is
also a major impediment in the way of attaining educational excellence
and desired output. In cases of limited availability of resources, the impact
is less significant. Discussions, demonstrations, presentations, simulations,
tutorials, seminars, or any other tool of modern pedagogy are not used as
methods of teaching. In many instances, Urdu and the regional languages
are generally the medium of instruction.46
In public schools, heavy emphasis is laid on parroting and learning
the text books by heart. Examination system followed in the public sector
is old and outdated which only emphasizes getting a first class degree
instead of promoting creative thinking and analytical learning. Academic
achievement and excellence is not the sole objective of education. The real
objective of imparting education is to develop cognitive skills and creative
thinking of the students but the current examination structure forces the
students to learn the lessons by heart to get first class degrees. As a
consequence, students graduating from the public sector schools seldom
get top-tier jobs in the job market. One the other hand, there are only 1522
vocational institutes in Pakistan. The enrollment capacity of these
institutes is only 314,188 students per year whereas around 12.4 million
people need vocational training every year.47 To meet this demand, the
best possible way is to make vocational education a part of curriculum at
matric and secondary levels. A sincere intention is required to take steps
for developing the communication, vocational and computer skills of
students. The children from poor segments of Pakistan go to school with a
great hope for advancement and improvement of the quality of their life
but their hopes are rarely fulfilled as the curricula being followed in public
schools fail to equip them for mainstream professions and leadership
roles. The poor segments of the society remain underprivileged which
further fuels fractioning, frustration and conflict in the society.48
On the other hand, the private educational institutions follow
updated and advanced educational courses which enrich students’
learning capabilities, making them aware of the challenges of modern
technological era and the global affairs. Extra-curricular activities are

Community of Education Leaders," Studies in Higher Education 40, no. 2

(2015): 311-328.
46 Ibid.
47 Shahid Siddiqui, Rethinking Education in Pakistan: Perceptions, Practices, and
Possibilities.
48 Angelito Calma, "Leadership in Higher Education: Examining the Narratives of
Research Managers from Multiple Lenses," Asia Pacific Journal of
Education 35, no. 1 (2015): 55-68.
102 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

encouraged to boost up the mental and creative capability of students.

Private schools have more facilities than public schools. Secondly private
schools have a rich and well-designed curriculum as compared to public
schools.49
The admission criteria of private schools is quite different from
public schools as public schools cannot deny admission to any child
whereas there are certain pre- requisites and assessment procedures
followed for a child desiring to get admitted to the private schools. In
Pakistan, private schools are considered more prestigious and reputable
than government sector academic institutions. Private schools have
relatively better physical infrastructure with better teaching standards,
which include structured teaching methodologies, and use of audio-visual
aids to enhance learning of their students. Teachers at private schools
engender a better learning environment for their students, encouraging
them to discuss topics in the curriculum as well as extra-curricular
matters.50 They also encourage students to participate in class discussions,
presentations, and other valuable activities. The teachers also use friendly
teaching techniques to groom the potential of the students. In private
schools, the management categorizes students into different categories,
and then arranges makeup classes for the weaker students. They lay
emphasis on participation and activity-based learning. Students are
encouraged to practice speaking English as the medium of communication
in classrooms right from kindergarten which helps them to attain more
fluency in English language, improve their communication, and aids in
their intellectual growth as well. Consequently, students learn to rely more
on cognitive skills and logical thinking rather than rote learning, and are
involved in practical work competencies and effective communication
skills as shown in Table 5. Students from private schools have skills such
as the ability to do intellectual work, internal locus of control in decision-
making, core competencies regarding field work, and knowing how to
interact and deal with others in normal and special course situations.

49 Ray R. Buss, Ron Zambo, Debby Zambo and Tiffany R. Williams, "Developing
Researching Professionals in an EDD Program: From Learners and Leaders to
Scholarly and Influential Practitioners," Higher Education, Skills and Work-
based Learning 4, no. 2 (2014): 137-160.
50 Ibid.
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 103

Figure 1: Model of Education System and its

Impact On Student’s Effectiveness

Table 3: Regression Weights of All Variables and their Dimensions

Varriables and Dimensions Std.Weight S.E. C.R. P
Leadership <--- Exam -0.591 0.06 -7.771 ***
Leadership <--- Pedagogy -0.159 0.033 -3.052 0.002
Professionalism <--- Pedagogy 0.402 0.043 7.45 ***
Socialism <--- Pedagogy 0.24 0.037 4.928 ***
Professionalism <--- Curriculam -0.192 0.026 -4.364 ***
Leadership <--- Curriculam 0.503 0.039 6.159 ***
Socialism <--- Curriculam -0.271 0.028 -5.427 ***
Socialism <--- Exam 0.886 0.065 12.853 ***
Professionalism <--- Exam 0.994 0.073 13.407 ***
ES6 <--- Exam 0.601
ES5 <--- Exam 0.684 0.075 14.851 ***
ES4 <--- Exam 0.474 0.069 11.225 ***
ES3 <--- Exam -0.194 0.093 -4.955 ***
ES2 <--- Exam 0.588 0.07 13.326 ***
ES1 <--- Exam 0.66 0.092 14.486 ***
CR3 <--- Curriculam 0.849
CR2 <--- Curriculam 0.378 0.052 7.113 ***
CR1 <--- Curriculam -0.393 0.048 -7.254 ***
PDG1 <--- Pedagogy 0.706
PDG2 <--- Pedagogy 0.584 0.091 9.137 ***
PDG3 <--- Pedagogy 0.428 0.085 8.17 ***
LD1 <--- Leadership 0.4
LD2 <--- Leadership -0.445 0.137 -7.61 ***
LD3 <--- Leadership -0.68 0.161 -8.817 ***
LD4 <--- Leadership 0.273 0.114 5.606 ***
LD5 <--- Leadership 0.13 0.099 2.991 0.003
LD6 <--- Leadership -0.066 0.101 -1.558 0.119
SL1 <--- Socialism 0.605
SL2 <--- Socialism 0.555 0.079 12.583 ***
SL3 <--- Socialism 0.503 0.082 11.643 ***
PF3 <--- Professionalism 0.57
PF2 <--- Professionalism 0.522 0.062 12.727 ***
PF1 <--- Professionalism 0.522 0.064 12.717 ***
104 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Table 4: Result of One Sample T-test and Kruskalwalis Rank Test

Public Private Madrassah
Indicators Mean-Dif Positive % Negative % Mean-Dif Positive % Negative % Mean-Dif Positive % Negative %
Socialism
Civic Engagement -.580 34 66* -.133 45 55** -.453 23 77*
Civic Participation -.533 45 55* -.373 33 67* -.460 37 63*
Social connectedness -.284 54 46* -.167 43 57 -.127 21 89
Professionalism
Cognitive Skill -.147 23 77 -.300 55 45* -.167 19 81
Problem solving skill -.787 65 35** -.193 28 72 -.953 64 36 **
Communication Skill -.927 82 18** .020 21 89 -.780 39 61**
Leadership
Self –Consciousness -.307 76 24* -.020 23 67 -.047 43 57
Self-Discipline -.395 45 55* -.060 18 82 -.333 66 34**
Self-Reliance -.340 61 29* -.080 36 64 .467 67 23**
Self-Esteem -.180 59 41 .040 23 77 -.273 56 44
Self-Respect .013 33 67 -.207 43 57* -.147 23 77
Possession of Institution -.080 47 53 .027 33 76 .933 78 22**
**,*. Difference is significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 level (2-tailed) on the basis of standard value 4 (agree)

Conclusion
This study revolves around analyzing the extent to which different
education systems in Pakistan impact the students’ outcome in terms of
professionalism, good citizenship and having qualities of visionary leaders.
This study is based on the theory of Structural Influences Behaviour. The
researcher collected data from eight hundred graduates of different
educational systems in Pakistan such as Madaris, and public and private
schools by applying stratified random proportionate sampling technique.
Structural Equation Modeling, one sample T-test and Kruskal Wallis rank
test were applied as statistical techniques. The results of the study indicate
that curricula, pedagogical practices and examination systems significantly
impact the professionalism, social life and qualities of leadership in the
students.
Madrassah education system has sect-specific curricula, following
the traditional methods of pedagogy (including corporal punishment) and
outdated examination system which is based on the memorization of ideas
instead of critical thinking. As a consequence, students of Madaris lag
behind others in areas like professionalism and leadership skills.
Therefore, curricula, pedagogy and examination system of Madaris should
be reformed in accordance with international standards and local market
requirements. Similarly, public school system has outdated curricula
(based on state-mandated objectives), with old methods of pedagogy,
focusing more on cramming lessons instead of the critical, synthesis and
cognitive skills necessary for intellectual development of the students. The
traditional examination system followed in the public schools does not
have capacity to inculcate professionalism, enhance efficiency in social life
and build leadership qualities. Pakistan should improve the quality of
education offered to the students by reforming the existing curricula and
examination system in accordance with the international standards.
Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 105

The private school system has an international standard

curriculum, up-to-date pedagogical practices and effective examination
system; focusing more on creativity instead of memorization of ideas but
the curricula being followed in private school system do not include
extracurricular activities. Due to this, the social life of the students of
private school system is quite limited and revolves around specific
communities. So, it is imperative for private schools to include sports and
political activities in their curriculum.
It is concluded that three distinct types of education systems are
imparting education in Pakistan. These include Madaris, public schools
and private schools. They adopt different languages including Arabic, Urdu
and English respectively as means of instruction. Three classes of
Pakistani society from poor to elite ones pass through these systems of
education and as a result, each institution produces a particular class of
society. As there is difference in the methods, means of instruction, learner
groups and teaching goals employed by different school systems, so is the
difference in the output of the students produced by each system.51

51 Dr. Mohammad Reza Takhsheed, interview by Mehreen Bibi, February 23,

2019, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran.
106 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

POST- SOLEIMANI US-IRAN TENSIONS:

CONSEQUENCES AND RESPONSES
Muhammad Saleem Mazhar, Naheed S. Goraya & Samee Ozair
Khan

Abstract
After the killing of most powerful Iranian General Qassem
Soleimani, in US drone strike in Iraq on January 3, 2020, the
tensions in the Middle East are growing. Tehran retaliated by
firing ballistic missiles at US troops stationed in Iraq. The General’s
death attracted a lot of concerns from the world as global economy
gets directly affected by Middle Eastern tensions. The US forces
based in Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan
surround almost all of Iran. The situation remains volatile and lot
depends on how Iran responds? Any prospect of war would unleash
sufferings across the region. This study investigates the challenges
posed by the killing of Qassem Soleimani and the role that regional
politics and sectarian fault-lines may play in exacerbating the
problems. It also discusses the US approach regarding regime
change and Pakistan’s place in the given context and suggests that
Islamabad should pursue a balanced approach that would serve its
geopolitical interests as well as domestic stability.

Keywords: Iran, US, Iraq, NPT, WMD, JCPOA, Daesh, Soleimani,

IRGC-QF, FATF

Introduction

T
he killing of General Soleimani, the Commander of Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), has brought
volatility to the region, as evident from the media coverage
attracted by this event. US presence in Iraq, Afghanistan and its
naval fleet in Persian Gulf make it proximate to the Middle Eastern region
and shape its security dynamics. Iran on the other hand is a significant


Pro-Vice Chancellor, University of the Punjab, Lahore. Email: [email protected]

Assistant Professor at Centre for South Asian Studies (CSAS), University of the
Punjab, Lahore. Email: [email protected]

Associate Professor, Punjab University Law College, University of the Punjab,
Lahore. Email: [email protected]
Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 107

regional actor having sway from Iraq to Sudan. Both countries are engaged
in an enduring hostility since Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979. The rising
specter of Iran’s growing influence and power in the region is deepening
this hostile relationship that could have improved after the signing of the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015.
The US-Iran relations are so deeply interlinked in the Middle East’s
security that these cannot be analysed in isolation.1 The US has interfered
with Iran for more than 50 years and that bitter history continues to haunt
their future too.2 The geopolitical position of Iran in the fluctuating
regional security environment, the rise of “Islamic State” and the nuclear
deal had increased the prospects for a détente between Iran and the US.
This article analyses the deteriorating US-Iran ties in the wake of
killing of General Soleimani and how the situation can affect the regional
security? It also suggests that Pakistan should stay neutral as choosing
sides will not affect its relations with US and Saudi Arabia but also deepen
sectarian divides in the country.

The History of US-Iran Conflictual Relations

Cultural behaviours, ideological goals, demographic features, and
religious persuasions are all fundamental factors in shaping how a country
perceives its environment and its place within its neighbourhood.3 Given
this understanding, parallels between Iran and the US are as striking as
the influence they seek vis-a-vis each other and in the world around them.
Both are imperial powers, in cultural sense, if not in a political one. Iranian
youth is greatly influenced by the imagery and the culture of the West. At
the same time, people in the West enjoy the artifacts of Persian culture, be
the carpets, handicrafts or poetry. In the US, for instance, one of the most
widely read Persian poet is the Persian medieval mystic Jalalud-din-Rumi.4
The US has relished a formal commercial presence in Iran since
1856 with the signing of a treaty, however not political, as Iran laid
beyond US immediate political vision.5 Over 50, 000 US troops were
embedded in Iranian military, under the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza
Pahlavi (1941-1979). Apparently, it was meant to safeguard the region
from communist aggression. Indeed those troops protected the US’ oil and

1 Nazir Hussain, “US-Iran Relations: Issues, Challenges and Prospects,” Policy

Perspectives 12 (2015): 29-47.
2 Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s
Wrong with the US Policy, (Routledge, 2009), 45-46, 85, 207.
3 Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic (New
York: Times Books, 2006), 59.
4 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Conflict
in the Middle East: Confronting Iran ( New York: Basic Books, 2006), 234.
5 Ibid. 15.
108 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

geo-political interests and tried to sustain Shah’s rule.6 The British

historian Malcolm Yapp hints towards the US presence in the geo-political
dynamics of South-West Asia during the 19th century as a countervailing
force to balance the Soviet pressures. However, it remained the focus of
American agenda until the oil was discovered in Iran.7
The US security interests gained momentum in August 1941 when
Iran looked to US as a natural ally because of Anglo-Soviet invasion. US
interest towards Iran was overly defensive until mid-1943.8 Hussain
writes:

The structurally conflictual relations of US-Iran involves many historic

events like US-hostage crisis, freezing of Iranian assets and diverse
opinions on the security architecture of the Middle East and apart from
those, domestic politics in both countries and the US regional allies,
especially Israel and Saudi Arabia are other major challenges. However
both countries have convergence of interest on many areas like regional
peace process, terrorism and most significantly Iranian nuclear
controversy lasts to influence and cast shadows on the bilateral
relations.9

Throughout the history, US foreign policy towards Middle East has

revolved around the issues like: containment of Soviet Union; security of
the oil route and later flow of petro dollars to the US and its allies; and
preservation of the state of Israel. Prior to 1979, the US and Israel used
Iran as an economic and military force to combat Arab nationalism. After
1979 revolution, Iran left the US sphere of influence and in due course
formed new alliances with the governments in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
that directly challenged the US supremacy.10 The nervy and inconsistent
relations between US and Iran have been the same since 1979. Iran has
been under unilateral sanctions by the US policy makers, together with
other counter-productive policies.
For decades, the US has listed Iran amongst the terrorism
sponsoring states. When Iran-Iraq war was over, the EU and Iran tried to
develop critical dialogues to end confrontation between both countries for

6 Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s
Wrong with the US Policy.
7 Malcolm Yapp, The History of the Persian Gulf: The Nineteenth and the
Twentieth Century’s in the Persian Gulf States: A General Survey, (Baltimore:
John Hopkins University Press, 1980), 41-42.
8 Richard W. Cotham, “The United States. Iran and the Cold War,” Iranian
Studies, no. 3 (Winter, 1970), 3-4.
9 Nazir Hussain, “US-Iran Relations: Issues, Challenges and Prospects”.
10 Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s
Wrong with the US Policy.
Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 109

developing economic relations. There have been successes like

negotiations between Iran and 3 European countries over Nuclear
Proliferation Treaty (NPT).11 Iran signed Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT)12 the Chemical Weapon Convention (CWC)13 and the Biological and
Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC)14 but the US continued to allege that
Iran is engaged in acquiring Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and the
means to deliver them.15 While the US has been claiming that Iran is
acquiring nuclear weapons, the international inspectors and the US
military leaders stated that it was conforming to the requirements under
the agreement. Developments in the recent past, display a potential for
escalating the tensions between Iran and USA. These include the following:

1. Declaring IRGC as FTO -The US Administration has for the first

time declared the official military force Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).16
2. Ending of US Sanctions about Purchase of Iranian Oil - The
administration ended US sanctions exception for any country to
buy Iranian oil so that Iranian economy fails.17

11 The main objective of the Treaty is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons
and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of
nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament.
12 The Treaty bans all nuclear explosions- everywhere by everyone. The Treaty
was negotiated at the conference on Disarmament in Geneva and adopted by
the United Nations General Assembly in 1996.
13 The Convention aims to eliminate an entire category of weapons of mass
destruction by prohibiting the development, production, acquisition,
stockpiling, retention, transfer or use of chemical weapons by States Parties.
States Parties, in turn, must take the steps necessary to enforce that
prohibition in respect of persons (natural or legal) within their jurisdiction.
14 The Biological Weapons Convention,(BWC), or Biological and Toxin Weapons
Convention, (BTWC) was the first multilateral disarmament treaty banning
the production of an entire category of weapons. It was signed on April 10,
1972.
15 Reza Simbar, “Iran and the US: Engagement or Confrontation,” Journal of
International and Area Studies, Vol. 13, no. 1 (June 2006), 73-87.
16 "Statement from the President on the Designation of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization,” U.S.
Department of State, April 8, 2019, https://2017-2021-translations.state.gov/
2019/04/08/statement-from-the-president-on-the-designation-of-the-
islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps-as-a-foreign-terrorist-
organization/index.html.
110 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

3. Ending of 2 Waivers under IFCP Act - The US administration on

May 3, 2019 ended 2 of the 7 waivers under the Iran Freedom and
Counter Proliferation Act (IFCA, P.L. 112-2398).18
4. Sending Bomber Task Force to the Persian Gulf Region- The US
administration had some reports on May 3, 2019 that Iran is
planning to attack US installations and therefore, announced to
expedite its earlier plan about the deployment of US Abraham
Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and sending a bomber task force to
the Persian Gulf Region.19
5. Foreign Military Sale and Export Licenses for Direct
Commercial Sales of Defence Articles - The Congress was
notified, on May 24, 2019 about immediate foreign military sales
and proposed export licenses for direct commercial sales of
defense articles.20
Trump repeatedly showed the desire for revising the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)21 that encircles not only the
nuclear issues but also Iran’s Ballistic Missile program and Iran’s support
for regional and armed factions. However, no talks were initiated. The
killing of Soleimani further reduces the chances for such talks. The US has
long been making efforts to increase economic pressure on Iran to
dwindle it strategically and force Tehran to negotiate a broader resolution

17 “Advancing the U.S. Maximum Pressure Campaign On Iran,” U.S. Department

of State, April 22, 2019, http://www.state.gov/advancing-the-u-s-maximum-
pressure-campaign-on-iran/
18 Letter from Mary Elizabeth Taylor, Assistant Secretary of State for legislative
Affairs to Senator James Risch, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, May 3, 2019.
19 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statementrs/statement-national-
security-advisor-ambassador-john-bolton-2/.
20 Kenneth Katzman, Kathleen J. Mclnnis & Clayton Thomas, “ US- Iran Conflict
and Implications for US Policy,” Congressional Research Service, (January
2020), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R45795.pdf.
21 The agreement with five annexes was reached by Iran and the P5+1 (China
France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) on July
14, 2015. It was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231, adopted
on July 20, 2015. Iran’s compliance with the nuclear-related provisions of the
JCPOA will be verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
according to certain requirements set forth in the agreement. On May 8, 2018,
President Trump announced that the US would withdraw from the JCPOA and
reinstate U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime.
Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 111

over US-Iran differences through the Executive Orders 1387122, 1387623,

and 1322424
The analysts remain uncertain about evaluating the situation when
it comes to what Trump wanted with Iran as he withdrew from the
Nuclear Accord of 2015 and initiated what he termed as “Maximum
Pressure.”25 In response to that Iran came up with ‘Maximum Resistance’.
Iran reduced its compliance with the provision of JCPOA. This maximum
pressure is not likely to affect Iran’s economy. It is pretty hard to analyze
what the US wanted from Iran and henceforth, it opened a lot of space for
miscalculations. In fact, the US focuses more on Iran’s regional influence
and proxy forces. It wants Iran to detach itself from its proxies.

The Killing of General Soleimani:

Legality Versus Real-politick
The killing of Iranian General took place on Iraqi soil, breaching
the country’s sovereignty. The US could have taken another course of
action but it chose the negative path, violating the International law and
the UN Charter. The Iranian General was on American Radar since Bush
and Obama times but was attacked only now and not before. He could
have been killed in summer 2019 when US Drone was hit by the Iranians.
There are few interesting answers to why he was killed only now. Some
publications reveal that he was an instrument for achieving peace between
Iran and Saudi Arabia which eventually goes down to the sales of weapons.
The Iranian General was travelling to Iraq carrying a message from Saudi
Arabian Monarchy and there were undercurrents of slowing down the
tension process. Just as before getting into the elections of second term,
Obama killed Osama bin Laden, Trump also needed a trophy before the
second term’s campaign could start. Osama was declared a global terrorist

22 Imposing Sanctions With Respect to the Iron, Steel, Aluminum, and Copper
Sectors of Iran.
23 On June 24, 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump signed Executive Order
13876, in which the assets of the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, along
with Ali Khamenei, are frozen following the incident near the Gulf of Oman
days prior.
24 President Bush signed Executive Order 13224 on September 23, 2001.
Executive Order 13224 gives the U.S. Government a powerful tool to impede
terrorist funding and is part of our national commitment to lead the
international effort to bring a halt to the evil of terrorist activity.
25 Bolton was the key architect of Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy against
Iran ; “Trump's 'Maximum Pressure' Strategy on Iran did not Fail,” AlJazeera,
September 16, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/trump-
maximum-pressure-strategy-iran-fail-190916092330241.html
112 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

and now interestingly Soleimani “was” killed as a terrorist and a legitimate

target for Americans to assassinate.
Trump administration itself faced criticism in the US. International
and the US media affirm that in the past, the US blamed Iraq and its allies
about Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and attacked her. Strange
enough, after many years, the super power claimed that Iraq was not
found in possession of any such weapons. Therefore it is important to
know whether the US rationale behind attacking the General is right or
not, amidst the growing tensions between both countries. The core
question arises over the legality of US actions in this context. The US
administration has reasoned that Soleimani was responsible for the
unprovoked attacks on American forces in Iraq, at the request of Iraqi
government. But the question arises about its legal implications. “The pre-
emptive self-defence is never a legal justification for assassination. The
relevant law is the UN Charter which defines self-defence as a right to
respond to an actual and significant armed attack.”26
The logic/aim of such moves is simpler to understand when
viewed from the lens of Real-politick as it is no different in this case from
that of Iraq’s invasion. The war in Iraq was simply about who gets to gain
influence in Iraqi oil fields and who gets to retain influence in Iraqi
government. The US is not leaving anytime soon from Iraq. The recent
parliamentary resolution was vague in asking US to pull its troops without
setting any dates or conditions. The dilemma in Iraqi government is that
the Iraqi government wants the US to stay there, to provide them security
and keep feeding them dollars which is another problem. On the other
hand, they also want to force their close ally status with Iran. Under these
circumstances, there is a conundrum in Iraq and the dilemma is who gets
to keep influence in Iraq that would continue to extend towards Pakistan,
if there is a misadventure in Iran.
The oil factor supports US strategy and foreign policy. Even today
the US does not have any coherent policy towards Iran and this is all the
more conspicuous seeing Iran’s significance for the political stability and
economic prosperity of the global community. Notwithstanding
appearances, the prominence is not reliant on its alleged nuclear goals, but
more on fundamental geopolitical and historical realities. Iran has the
second largest oil reserves in the world, larger than those of Iraq and
second only to those of Saudi Arabia. Given the significance of Persian Gulf
in the world oil market, its position will get reinforced with time.27 “” But it
is interesting to note what happened in the oil market in US? After Shale’

26
Sean D. Murphy, “The Doctrine of Preemptive Self-Defense,” Villanova Law Review
Vol. 50, Issue 3 (2005): 699, https://digitalcommons.law.villanova.edu/cgi/viewcontent.
cgi?article=1215&context=vlr
27 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great
Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran, 2.
Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 113

discovery, US is not dependent upon Middle Eastern for oil; if the oil prices
go up, the US will sell its own shale.28 If oil prices go down, the shale will
not sell - eventually, the price of economic revival (depending on selling of
shale oil and gas), will increase. Therefore, it is in the interest of US that
Iran, Iraq and Middle East remain on fire so that shale keeps selling.
Heightening of the regional tension also helps the US as it forces
Saudi Arabia once again to look towards it. This enables the US to send
arms to these states and keep Middle East dependent and under pressure.
If one looks at US threat to Iran, like Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has
provided a firing range, and a battle ground for newly invented weapons.
Whatever US has done in Afghanistan, it is going to do in Iran as well.
Consequently, the US military industry needs a battleground once again.
However, it is an open secret that the presence of US troops in Middle East
has generated more harm than peace, since it is embedded within a
broader design.

The Post-Killing Scenario:

Consequences and Options
In the aftermath of the killing, Iran responded saying that it will
retaliate by attacking the military bases of US while the statement of Iraqi
Prime Minister made the American attack more controversial. Iraq gave a
message to US on January 5, 2020, after Iraqi Parliament passed a
resolution to send back the foreign soldiers from Iraq. This resolution
demanded that, since the operation against Daesh29 has been successful,
the Iraqi government may take back its request from International
Coalition to help it against Daesh. Therefore all foreign soldiers may be
sent back and not allowed to use Iraqi land and domain. It was also made
clear that a complaint may be lodged in the United Nations against US for
breaching the intactness and sovereignty of Iraq.
However, American departure, if it happens, may take some time
because of already existing political chaos in Iraq. Many analysts believe
that US presence today in Iraq is more fragile than what was before this
crisis. It is an obvious fact that even the super power does not have the
luxury to go and intervene in any country. Looking at 19 years in
Afghanistan with $1 trillion down the road is a total loss. US has spent over
$ 6 trillion in wars for almost 30 years. Today, people have started raising

28 Shale oil is an unconventional oil produced from oil shale rock fragments by
pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution. These processes convert the
organic matter within the rock (kerogen) into synthetic oil and gas.
29 The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as the Islamic State of
Iraq and Syria (ISIS) officially known as the Islamic State (IS) and also known
by its Arabic-language acronym DAESH.
114 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

questions in the US Congress and this had been a big question during 2020
US Presidential election campaign.
Iran’s Response
Iran, a linchpin state of the region,30 lying at the geo-strategic
position between the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea sits on
approximately 10 percent of world’s proven oil supplies and has the
second largest amount of natural gas.31 Even if Iran had no oil no gas of its
own, this simple geo-political reality would make it hard to overlook.32
Prior to 1979, the US, British and French oil corporations had contracts to
develop, pump and distribute the Iranian oil. After 1979, Iran’s
nationalized oil company was willing to continue business with US firms
but on the terms, of it being more promising for Iran. But the US oil
companies pulled out of Iran on political and economic grounds.33Since
then, Iran is considered the biggest threat to the US and its allies in the
Middle Eastern region, there are few theories about Iran’s reaction.
Iran has its proxies throughout the region and given its network in
Europe, Latin America, and elsewhere the US response option might be
limited.34 But in the current situation, Iran can be more aggressive and
may use its missiles with full capability, keeping in view its past attacks
which have been very successful. It is not necessary that the repercussions
of Soleimani’s killing will remain limited to Iraq only. If Iran requests
Hizbullah, it can become active too and can attack US targets in Lebanon.
Hizbullah is not limited to Lebanon only but its proxies are present in all of
Middle East and can hit US’ assets. The analysts say that Iran has a full-
fledged cyber-war potential but the fact is that the Iranians have
outstretched themselves too far. These interventions in other countries
are the luxuries of the super power and even those are limited. When US
invaded Iraq and Kuwait, the situation was a little different. As far as Iran
is concerned, it has a different war game- but how? One fundamental point

30 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great
Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran, 3.
31 It has oil reserves of 133 billion barrels and natural gas reserves of 26.6
trillion cubic meters. However the estimates vary, depending on how figures
are computed ; Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran
and What’s Wrong with the US Policy, 5.
32 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great
Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran, 3.
33 Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s
Wrong with the US Policy 45.
34 Kenneth Katzman, Kathleen J, Mclnnis & Clayton Thomas,“ US- Iran Conflict
and Implications for US Policy,” Congressional Research Service (January
2020), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R45795.pdf.
Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 115

is that the Iranian revolution’s history is very much remembered and

cherished in the nation’s living memory; somehow the impact of Iranian
revolution has not been truly realized. Symbolically, the way people
gathered in Soleimani’s funeral, one cannot expect it another Arab
country, kingship or UAE etc.
The Problem of Proxies and Sectarian
Fault-lines in Regional Politics
This incident is bound to bring serious and inevitable implications
for the region. The Arab world, Middle East and the world at large will
confront the repercussions and losses – mainly due to the role of proxies.
Kausch writes that “Proxy connections between non-state competitors and
their external state patrons in the Middle East are a reason that can halt
regional stability as non-state proxies grow into both an instrument and a
pivotal factor in determining the inter-state rivalry between regional
powers. Consequently, non-state actors with regional influence must
gradually be forced into policy decisions in military, diplomatic and legal
terms.”35 Proxy wars in the Middle East are endowing non-state actors. In
an ostensibly inflexible drape of domestic, regional and global power
struggles; major global powers such as Russia and the United States, as
well as regional powers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, are challenging
each other in arenas beyond their own zones. This is done by cooperating
with non-state local forces. Non-state actors, thus, are becoming
progressively conclusive in determining not only intra-state but also inter-
state power struggles.
While discussing non-state actors, the most important subject is
that who manipulates and for what purpose? Otherwise merely an attack
cannot trigger something at such a massive level. Non-state actors are
anticipated to linger as a striking feature of the regional landscape into the
distant future, and in some countries could well lead power politics for
some time—particularly the countries that have gone through political
transformations, such as Libya, Afghanistan and Yemen.36
The sectarian fault-lines have surfaced dramatically in Iraqi
politics over tie and are still there. Iraq is vulnerable on that score and
how much role they play in regional politics, everyone forgets - it has
spread to Syria. After the US invasion of Iraq and the bombing of Al Askari
Mosque, the situation expounded the sectarian divisions which existed
even during the days of British rule, when before the World War II, half of

35 Kristina Kausch, “ State and Non-State Alliances in the Middle East,” Italian
Journal of International Affairs, 52 no. 3, (July 2017).
36 Hassan Hassan, “ The Middle Eastern Problem Soleimani Figured Out,”
Politico, January 12, 2020,
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/ 12/iran-middle-
eastern-problem-soleimani-figured-out-097350.
116 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

the Iran was under Red Army and the other half was under American and
Britain forces. About 20-25 years back, the Western media never
mentioned Sunni Islam and Shites Islam; this is a fault line which West has
exploited. In the so called Shite crescent between Iraq-Iran, Iraq-Syria and
Lebanon, it is a fact of life that there is a sectarian fault line, exploited by
the US and on the larger scale it is exploited between Saudi Arabia and
Iran. If US remains in Middle East and those places, they will be a part of
problem rather than part of solution.
In this regard, the entire region and the neighboring countries can
play a very important role because there will be a spillover effect of both
the proxies and sectarian fault-lines on them too. For example, refugee
influx and sectarian issues have already impacted Pakistan for long.
Around 3 million Afghan refugees are still in Pakistan and they have not
returned back in last two decades. The Iranian refugees coming in sight
can be foreseen. Therefore a whole new lot of problems are expected, for
which collective efforts need to be made at regional level.
The Global Dimension: Sino-Russian
Factor in the US-Iran Rivalry
Though Russia and China have few tensions but being enemy’s
enemy brings them closer as friends. Though some analysts shun the
significance and sustainability of the liaison, Thomas Joscelyn of the
Foundation for Defense of Democracy said that, “the Xi-Putin partnership
is questionably the most precarious bond on the planet at the moment.”37
Russia signifies the fundamental contemporary and future strategic
challenge to the United States, whereas the Chinese are no more
invulnerable than anyone else from the direct effects of the escalation
between the US and Iran. However, they could transpire as major longer-
term recipients since China is already booming in economic sector. China’s
Middle East approach, at least for now, is purely transactional. The
Chinese are equipped to offer money, ranging from oil purchases or
investment to the infrastructure projects. Russian, Iranian and Chinese
state-sponsored coverage of the US-China trade war is a demonstration of
narrative connection between these three nations. Coverage of the trade
war by all three countries is highly critical of the US, albeit typically
through varying lenses — China from a mainly economic perspective,
Russia from a political perspective, and Iran through both. One place

37 Dough Bandow, “Shy American Should Fear a Russia- China Alliance,” CATO
Institute, September 9, 2020, https://www.cato.org/publications/
commentary/why-america-should-fear-russia-china-alliance.
Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 117

where the three countries’ content most heavily overlaps, however, is in

the context of the trade war and the US elections.38
The major powers must together join hands and come up with
some positive solution to the unfolding volatile situation. It is hoped that
reasoned rationality may overcome slogans and fanaticism. The world
should make efforts to avert war and ensure peace in the Middle East. So
far China and Russia have maintained a neutral position while
condemning it. Both powers along with Pakistan can play an important
role. However, Islamabad is aligned with the US and Saudi Arabia and
given the economic difficulties its choices are constrained. Pakistan needs
to stay neutral in this conflict. As a friend of UAE and Saudi Arabia, the
small Gulf Countries are very much vulnerable. If UAE and Saudi Arabia do
not support US and remain neutral that would be very wise. But in this
whole game, the most vulnerable country is Israel. The US needs to avoid
playing with fire. If the situation aggravates, it might wrap up everything,
even the European countries. So primarily, it can be believed that the
killing of General Soleimani is a part of a larger deal of damaging the
prospect of peace in the region.
P5+1 and the Prospects for Regime Change
The regime change39 had been the name of the game since long. It
is a sobering fact that every US President since the Islamic Revolution has
been could not deal effectively with the question of Iran.40 US hostility
towards Iran revolves around geo-politics, oil and military presence. In

38 Collins Alexander, “Russia, Iran and China on the US-China Trade War,”
Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 28, 2020, https://www.fpri.org/
fie/russia-iran-china-trade-war/.
39 In pursuance of its expansionist and hegemonic agenda, the US has been in
the business of regime change in foreign countries for a long time. As the US
economic and military power grew over the past two centuries, so did its
ambitions. Monroe Doctrine, declared by US President James Monroe in
December, 1823, was an initial indication of the US hegemonic designs in the
Western Hemisphere. After its emergence as a world power at the end of
the19th century, the US gave a broader interpretation to the Monroe Doctrine
to assert that the Western Hemisphere was its exclusive sphere of influence.
President Theodore Roosevelt further expanded the scope of the Doctrine in
1904 through the Roosevelt Corollary which stated that in cases of flagrant
and chronic wrongdoing by a Latin American country, the US could intervene
in that country’s internal affairs ; Javid Husain, “US and Regime Change,” The
Nation, May 28 2019, https://nation.com.pk/28-May-2019/us-and-regime-
change.
40 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great
Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran, 2.
118 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

general, the US-Iran relations have remained mutually hostile in recent

years until 9/11 took place, creating space for placing Iran on the Axis of
Evil. All what the US wants is for the Ayatullahs to go away so to make Iran
a Pro-US country which would allow the US Corporations to come and
exploit the resources, as was the case during Shah’s rule until 1979.
Throughout history, the US administrations have made efforts to
pressurize Iranian leaders to accept US hegemony or succumb to the
“regime change” - the term’s use has been intensified during the Trump
era.
The current state of affairs makes the survival of P5+1 deal
suspicious because of trust deficit. The US under Trump actually ripped
apart the whole agreement. The Europeans, especially the French tried
very hard to keep it alive and give some relief to the Iranians. This actually
would make Iranians more cognizant of the fact that had it been a nuclear
power, probably the US had thought hundred times before attacking the
second most powerful man in Iran – this situation would probably not
exist in such a case. For now, the problems will continue. For Iran Catch-22
- if it crosses its uranium enrichment threshold, it will have problems with
West also, and even with China and Russia to a greater extent because the
agreement is between 5+1. Therefore, P5+1 deal is perhaps not going to
stay there for a long time though Iranians still have left some window
open. Even Trump conveyed a message that there can still be a peace, if
they agree to what ‘we do’.

Pakistan’s Role in Fragile Situation

Under these circumstances, will Pakistan be able to stay neutral?
The country has never used the word “Neutral”, rather stated that it will
never be a part of any war. However, any role that Pakistan chooses to
play in this situation would have important consequences. This is because
the evolving situation will not only affect Iran and Middle East, but would
have an equally disastrous impact on Pakistan. Not only because Pakistan
is situated in this region, but due to the Pakistani expatriates, who are in
Middle East and are sending back billions of dollars (estimated $ 16
billion)41 worth remittances; those remittances are the highest sources of
national economy. Secondly, Pakistani society will fall into internal
divisions which the country cannot afford, in case Pakistani picks one side
and leaves the other, given the sectarian divides already existing in the
country.
In the present scenario, if anything goes wrong in Iran and Saudi

41
“World Bank Predicts Sharpest Decline of Remittances in Recent History”, Press
Release,” April 22, 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-
release/2020/04/22/world-bank-predicts-sharpest-decline-of-remittances-in-recent-
history
Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 119

Arabia, then definitely there is a sizeable community of not only Sunnis

but Shias as well in Pakistan, who will probably come out in favor of Iran.
There will be demonstrations as there have been demonstrations in Iraq.
Eventually there will be unrest in Pakistan too and that unrest will lead to
grave consequences for social and political stability in the country. Trump
had answered a question that “well, we will use India to counter
Pakistan.”42 India is a country where US has given support in terms of
technology and intelligence sharing and military aid and the list goes on
and on. Well, whatever decisions been made by the US, either through IMF
or FATF, an internally unstable Pakistan would be countered much easily.
If and when these lines are drawn, and the resulting divisiveness ensues,
the economic benefits go to US, military and security benefits go to Israel
and India.
There is a larger game in this region which is being nurtured for a
decade. Developments such as, ‘we have not been put in grey list, we have
not been black listed in Financial Action Task Force (FATF)43 are small
tactical gains that third world countries count on, without being cognizant
of the larger trap that is being set for them. It is this trap which is being set
to get us entangled with the preferences of great powers that a geo-
strategically significant state like Pakistan has to balance and survive
through amidst this challenging inter-regional milieu.

Conclusion
Morality is a choice for the weak in international politics as is
widely held and was displayed yet again by the killing of Qassem
Soleimani. For the US, no amount of military and economic provisions will
alleviate the region’s security concerns without first learning the lessons
of Soleimani’s killing. It must be realized by the US that Iran is not a
Banana Republic.44 In a sense, US policy decisions and Soleimani’s
perceptions erected this realm together; Washington generated the

42 Jyoti Malhotra, “US to Train India in Counter-Terrorism, Trump Decides to

Give Pakistan a Miss,” The Print, February 23, 2020, https://theprint.in/
diplomacy/us-to-train-india-in-counter-terrorism-trump-decides-to-give-
pakistan-a-miss/369574/
43 The Financial Action Task Force is an intergovernmental organization
founded in 1989 on the initiative of the G7 to develop policies to combat
money laundering. In 2001, its mandate was expanded to include terrorism
financing.
44 The term “Banana Republic” was first coined in 1904 to describe Latin
American countries whose economy relied heavily and usually solely on the
export of bananas. In the modern world, however, developing countries are
experiencing a similar problem, where they are relying purely on one product
or industry to carry their entire country.
120 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

vacuum, and Soleimani had the means to bung them up. There is still a
space for the US to improve the situation and cement a more positive form
of influence.45 This escalation was redundant since Iran had beckoned
several times that there were diplomatic options other than confrontation;
nevertheless, the Trump regime left them little choice.
In the short term, the assassination may help stimulate the
political will in Iraq to oust an unrestricted US occupation. Iraqi MPs are
presently formulating a law which would call for expulsion of US troops
from Iraq. Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi has condemned the killing of
General as a breach of the agreement US made when they returned to the
country in 2014, under the pretext of fighting Daesh. Muqtada al Sadr46 has
joined with his former rivals to demand expulsion. If fruitful, that would
help maintain peace both in Iraq and the region. American forces will be
isolated when and if it vacates Iraq. Given the persistent foreign violence,
the only real way forward for security in the region is that Iran, Iraq,
Yemen, Syria and sooner or later Lebanon and Palestine join hands.
De-escalation will surely be complex. The Iraqi government,
parliament, political parties, and community leaders’ shouldn’t stand
divided. Iraqi state institutions need to avert attacks against facilities
where US military, diplomatic, or civilian personnel are based. The
diplomatic efforts of international actors such as Germany, Oman, Qatar,
Switzerland, and others that have relations with both the US and Iran
could be helpful in avoiding escalation. There is a need for unruffled heads
to prevail.47
There could be proxy skirmishes but no chances of an all-out-war
because Iran does prioritize its survival at any cost. Iran may believe that
‘Revenge is a dish better served cold’. However, without indulging in direct
war, Tehran would rather focus on its gains and may move the regional
status quo in its favour, once this phase passes. This is expected to be done
by raising the cost of US policy in Iraq and on nuclear issue, without
drawing international ire onto itself. It is the right time for the US to
realize the approaching endgame and the shifting landscape of its own

45 Hassan Hassan, “The Middle Eastern Problem Soleimani Problem Figured

Out,” Politico, Dec. 1, 2020. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/
2020/01/12/iran-middle-eastern-problem-soleimani-figured-out-097350.
46 He is an Iraqi Shia cleric, politician and militia leader. He is the leader of the
Sadrist Movement and the leader of Saraya al-Salam, a Shia militia that is a
reformation of the previous militia he led during the American occupation of
Iraq, the Mahdi Army.
47 Hassan Hassan, “The Middle Eastern Problem Soleimani Problem Figured
Out,” Politico, December 1, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/
magazine/2020/01/12/iran-middle-eastern-problem-soleimani-figured-out-
097350.
Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 121

making. The way forward is to uphold stable and legitimate governments,

and steadily strengthen institutions in broken countries. Instead of paying
bad guys to fight other bad guys, a productive role would be to brace more
moderate local actors to block up the emergent gap in large parts of the
Middle East.48

48 Ibid.
122 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Book Reviews
Title: Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of
Authoritarianism
Author: Anne Applebaum
Publisher: Penguin Random House LLC, New York, 2020, 206.

H
ow do demagogues come into being and what entices masses to
yield to their divisive politics? In Twilight of Democracy, Anne
Applebaum takes us through democracies on both sides of the
Atlantic and their flirtation with authoritarianism. Born in Washington
D.C. in a Jewish household and married to a former Foreign Minister of
Poland, Mrs. Sikorski’s three decades of career in journalism is nothing
short of illustrious. She has written extensively on communism, European
affairs and American politics. Her sizeable list of honors includes the 2004
Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction for Gulag: A History, a book that has since
been translated in twenty-five languages. Founder of Democracy Lab, a
website that watches states in transition to or moving away from
democracy, and Beyond Propaganda, a program that examines twenty-
first century disinformation campaigns, Applebaum sits on the editorial
board of the American Interest and Journal of Democracy. Besides
considerable comprehension of Western societies, this publication exudes
the author’s profound faith in the post-war liberal project and dismay at
its contemporary descent.
Between two parties in a bucolic setting in northwest Poland,
Applebaum gives a quick rundown of the proliferation of post-truth
politics in the first two decades of the twenty-first century: degeneration
of institutions, demonization of criticsand dissolution of fraternity that has
accompanied the disruption of democracy in Europe and the United States
of America. Beginning with the Law and Justice Party that rose to power in
Poland in 2015, she describes the paranoia and xenophobia that is
systemically fed to the masses to further political agendas. From
subversion of the constitution to curbs on journalistic freedom, the
authoritarian bent of the dispensation is flagrant. This soft dictatorship is
also visible in Orban’s Hungary that uses the machinery of the state to
harass opponents of the regime and promote its allies. Institutions are
regularly undermined and in some cases, such as the Central European
University, also dislodged. Applebaum continues that similar hyper-
nationalism, disapprobation of rule of law, exclusionary rhetoric and
obfuscation animated Vox’s campaign in Spain, Brexit and the US
Presidential Elections of 2016.
How does democracy become a staging point on the road to
tyranny as Plato had postulated? The Greek philosopherdreaded the
demagogue’s false words just like the founding fathers of the United States
were mindful of a corrupt leader and sought to create a system of checks
Book Reviews 123

that could restrain one. Another question follows: who might be drawn to
a rabble-rouser and under what conditions? The answer lies in human
nature. According to behavioral economist Karen Stenner, an authoritarian
disposition favors order and uniformity. It appeals to people who cannot
stand complexity and pluralism. Averse to debate, it is not a set of ideas
but a frame of mind and there is nothing inherently right or left wing
about this instinct. She is of the view that in any country, a third of the
populace possesses this tendency. However, the mere presence of citizens
inclined towards absolutism does not completely account for a
demagogue’s rise to power. Quoting the French essayist Julien Benda’s
1927 book ‘The Treason of Intellectuals’, the author points out that
authoritarians also require members of the educated and intellectual elite,
the clercs, to launch the coup or promote unrest by manipulating
discontent, channeling grievances and providing a different vision for the
future.
Anne Applebaum holds that although, the authoritarian left is
amassing cultural power, the only modern clercs who have succeeded in
taking charge of governments and political parties in the West are
members of movements labeled as the ‘right’. Moreover, they have little in
common with groups that have been so defined after the 2nd World War.
Instead, the new right longs to undo existing paradigms of state and
society. To attain this end, these polarizing campaigns employ a ‘Big Lie’ or
the ‘Medium-Size Lie’, encouraging their followers to engage with an
alternative reality. Conspiracy theories are first circulated as the main
plank of an election campaign and then by the ruling party using full might
of a modern, centralized administration. Their emotional appeal lies in
their simplicity and their reiteration brings power to the custodians of
one-party state. This illiberal state system is not a philosophy but a means
of obtaining and holding on to power and functions parallel to an
assortment of ideologies. In modern times, it does not entail violence to
remain in power. Instead, it depends on a cadre of elites to run state
media, bureaucracy, courts and in some instances, state companies as well.
Their role is to defend their leaders’ deceitful statements, corruption and
devastating impact on institutions and ordinary people. In return, they are
rewarded and promoted, offered lucrative contracts, salaries and impunity
for graft and incompetence. Different versions of this state capture are
found around the world but they all represent the end of the rather
detestable notions of free market, political competition and meritocracy
that according to them have not benefited the less successful.
The speedy shift in the manner people exchange messages has
enormous political ramifications. Diversion of advertising to social media
companies has severely limited the ability of newspapers and
broadcasters to gather and present information. Answerable to regulators
and courts, the journalists of these mediums abided by certain ethical
codes and enabled a single national conversation. It is not possible
124 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

anymore as people do not only differ in opinion nowadays but also on

facts. In an information sphere not constrained by any political, cultural or
moral authority whatsoever - and no reliable sources, fabricated, partisan
and deceptive narratives spread like wildfires. Too difficult to keep up
with for the fact-checkers and even if they could, the public won’t believe
them. Incorrect perceptions of the world are stimulated by social media
algorithms themselves. Designed to keep people online, they stir emotions
especially fear and anger. Owing to the addictiveness of these sites,
divisiveness and rage become a habit. As these digital platforms
increasingly determine how journalists and politicians construe and depict
things, polarization moves from the virtual to the real world resulting in a
hyper-partisanship that derides ‘experts’, mistrusts ‘establishment’
politics and is suspicious of ‘mainstream’ institutions including civil
servants, police and the courts.
Applebaum is of the view that although democracy has always
been unruly, it ultimately generates consensus when its rules are
observed. However, the modern debate is driven by the desire to
compulsorily silence the rest. The occurrence of a pandemic at this time is
disconcerting as historically, contagions have resulted in the expansion of
a state’s powers. Fear of disease may lead to fear of freedom. She worries
that the era in which borders could be traversed with ease, expertise and
knowledge were appreciated and sensible debate was possible may have
been one of history’s many blind alleys. It is conceivable that our
civilization is already headed for tyranny or anarchy and like the twentieth
century, a new generation of clercs, theproponents of authoritarian ideas
born out of antipathy or messianic dreams triumph. Contrarily, Covid-19
may inspire a renewed sense of global solidarity and lead to the expansion
of international institutions. After having undergone quarantine, lockdown
and fear of infection simultaneously, the reality of death could perhaps
teach people to be wary of peddlers of hate, division and disinformation.
Both futures are equally likely. One must realize that no political victory is
eternal and no definition of the nation is conclusive. No solution or theory
can explain everything. There is no single road map to a better world. All
authoritarianisms polarize, separate and split people in warring camps;
therefore, it is crucial that we choose our comrades with great care.
Together, we can reimagine democracy for the digital age and make
misconstrued concepts like liberalism mean something again. The struggle
against their excesses is worth continuing not because a perfect society is
attainable but because indifference is soul-destroying, mind-numbing and
deadening.

Reviewed by Saria Ahmad, PhD Scholar, Department of IR, NDU.

Book Reviews 125

Title: The World: A Brief Introduction

Author: Richard Haass
Publisher: Penguin Press, New York, May 12, 2020, 378.

T
he earth is in both, a perilous and promising state and America’s
sustained, active participation in international affairs is essential in
every respect, opines this primer on global politics. The ambition of
the book is discernible from its title, ‘The World: A Brief Introduction’. In
barely 400 pages, the author pitches this compendium at beginners
attempting to make sense of the implications of developments abroad for
the United States of America. Following a swift montage of world history
from the seventeenth century, the publication zooms in on the period after
the Second World War and prevalent conditions in key regions and hot
spots such as Europe and the Middle East. This brief, yet authoritative
study leads up to chapter-long backgrounders about geopolitical issues
covering the rise of China, migration, nuclear non-proliferation,
development strategies for poor countries, climate change, war, trade and
pandemics. As such, it promises a manual for everyday people to interpret
the global forces in which their lives are enmeshed even if they are not
aware of it or do not like it.
Richard Haass’s credentials are as prolific as his writings on the
subject. In his seventeenth year as the President of Council for Foreign
Relations, an independent and non-partisan think tank based in New York,
he has also served as a senior foreign policy official in the administration
of Presidents Ronald Regan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. An
important insider of American foreign policy clerisy, Haass’s last book ‘A
World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old
Order’ expressed trepidation over the falling apart of the liberal
international order and obstacles to devising a viable substitute to it.
Perhaps, to accentuate average Americans’ limited knowledge about the
world in general, Haass mentions that the inspiration for his recent
volume came from his encounter with a student at the Stanford University
during a day of fishing in Nantucket who confessed to having studied little
of history, economics or politics. From poor decision-making to
disengagement at a time of increasing global dysfunction, he warns that
the consequences of this ignorance are severe.
What exactly do Americans require to learn to ensure a better
future for themselves? In the two dozen chapters of ‘The World’
amounting to IR 101, Haass attempts to answer this question by covering
everything from terrorism to international law and monetary policy. While
explaining these multifarious issues, he steers clear of academic theories
dismissing them as “too abstract and too far removed from what is
happening to be of value to most of us.” The central argument of the book
is that the Vegas rule is not applicable to today’s interconnected world.
What happens inside a country does not stay there; the oceans adjoining
126 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

the United States are not moats. Extremist ideologies, economic

downturns and greenhouse gases, for instance, do not respect frontiers
and no nation can be sequestered from them. The gulf between the
insistence of governments to preserve their sovereign prerogatives and
inevitability of global problems that can only be tackled through
empowerment of international institutions and combined sacrifice is
widening. The pandemic we are faced with provides a primary evidence of
the conflicting trends that are at the heart of Haass’s analysis. It impels
nations to seal themselves against the virus’s ingress from abroad but also
to cut across national borders and cooperate globally against a shared
threat.
The book makes a start in the manner of a reference book. The first
few chapters narrate the broad flow of international politics since the
Peace of Westphalia that enshrined the concept of sovereignty of the
nation-state, not accountable to any higher authority. Pacing through
modern diplomatic history, the author exhibits the stabilizing capability of
the balance of power but also underscores the dangers of violence and
discord in a world grouped in this way. In contrast to some self-professed
realists who view states as the only players that matter on world stage,
Haass recognizes the often crucial role played by non-governmental
organizations, corporations, religions, media and also, terrorist groups.
The next section deals with major demographic, political and economic
developments in important regions of the world. Haass acknowledges the
promising trends of the past thirty years which includes a decline in the
proportion of global population living in acute poverty from more than
one-third three decades ago to less than one-tenth now. However, the
overall picture presented by him is grim. Whereas some issues such as
hostility between nuclear-armed Pakistan and India, civil wars in Africa
and tensions provoked by a rising China are familiar, there are others that
do not constitute top stories but are equally pressing. These include
challenges to providing education and making jobs available to rapidly
increasing populations in Africa and Asia and weakening civil authority
and democracy in countries of the Western hemisphere.
The third portion digs into a variety of global problems. The good
news is that nations have made remarkable strides in controlling the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and combating terrorism. In
other areas such as the handling of refugees and policing of cyberspace,
Haass sees little hope for progress. Talking about the environment, he is
forthright in predicting that the defining issue of the twenty-first century
may be climate change. In the final section of his book, Haass returns to ‘A
World in Disarray’ by inquiring into the potential of alliances, international
institutions and law that states may resort to to restore order in a chaotic
world. He contends that international institutions such as the United
Nations are only as strong as the major powers are willing to let them be.
Dependent on them for resources to sustain themselves, they have to tread
Book Reviews 127

carefully. Contrary to the even-handed and didactic approach adopted

elsewhere in the book, Haass wraps up with an exhortation to reinstate
America’s role as the leader of the free world. Bolstered by military
muscle, this, he believes is indispensable to attaining stability and progress
in the years ahead. A world order propped up by China would undeniably
be illiberal and democracies in Europe, Canada and Asia cannot be
expected to rise to the occasion.
To build a new and improved order that can withstand changes to
global configuration of power and meet the complex challenges of
globalization, the United States must amend its behavior to be viewed as a
benign, rather than malign force in world affairs. Some observers consider
this change elusive unless Democrats take over all three branches of the
government in November. Other factors can also not be discounted. Can
the United States continue to expend its material capabilities on costly
military enterprises? Will a more informed citizenry abreast with the
intricacies of international relations favor an activist foreign policy as
pursued by the United States from the second half of the twentieth
century? Whatever way one may answer these questions, the most
important takeaway from Haass’s book can be recapped in his own words:
‘The world is going to keep changing. And how it affects us is also going to
keep changing. And we've got to keep up with it.’

Reviewed by Irfan Ahmed, PhD Scholar, Department of IR, NDU.

128 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Documents
Document: 1

Message from H.E. Imran Khan, Prime Minister of the Islamic

Republic of Pakistan on the 75th Anniversary of the United Nations,
October 24th, 2020, Islamabad.

T
oday, the international community commemorates the United
Nations’ 75th anniversary. We are celebrating this momentous
occasion, when 75 years ago, the founding fathers came together to
establish a rules-based international system to ‘save the succeeding
generations from the scourge of war’.
While remaining at the forefront of the deliberations in the UN in
supporting decolonization and advocating liberation of many States,
Pakistan is proud to play its part in upholding universal values to protect
and safeguard human rights and fundamental freedoms for all. Pakistan
continues to support the right of all peoples living under foreign
occupation and alien domination to self-determination.
It is gratifying that Pakistan has played a critical role in preserving
international peace and security, through its contribution of ‘blue helmets’
to the UN Peacekeeping Missions all around the world.
At this historic occasion, I want to pay tribute to all men and
women peacekeepers, including from Pakistan, who remain ready to serve
in the most fragile and conflict-ridden areas and never hesitate to make
the ultimate sacrifice for maintaining peace and security around the globe.
The 75th United Nations Day is also a somber reminder that the
Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains unresolved, despite being on the
UN’s agenda for over seven decades.
The people of Jammu and Kashmir are still awaiting the fulfillment
of commitment made to them by the United Nations to exercise their right
to self-determination.
It is deplorable that the situation in Indian Illegally Occupied
Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) has further exacerbated since India’s
unilateral and unlawful actions of 5 August 2019. Led by ‘Hindutva’
ideology, the RSS-BJP regime has continued an inhuman military siege and
imposed draconian restrictions on freedom of movement and
communications.
I urge the international community, especially the Security Council,
to exercise its moral, legal, political and diplomatic authority to implement
UN Security Council resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir.
The United Nations faces many challenges amidst the COVID-19
pandemic. We are witnessing rise of ultra-nationalist, populist, xenophobic
and Islamophobic tendencies. At the same time, international law and
agreements are being flouted or set aside. Trade barriers are being
imposed and the pandemic is being ‘politicized’.
Documents 129

Pakistan remains committed to supporting the United Nations for

realization of our shared objectives of maintaining international peace and
security; economic and social development including the achievement of
Sustainable Development Goals; and the promotion and protection of
human rights for all.
I also reaffirm Pakistan’s abiding commitment to multilateralism.
Pakistan would continue to play a leading role in the United Nations for
peaceful settlement of international disputes and developing friendly
relations among nations based on the principle of equal rights and self-
determination of peoples, as enshrined in the UN Charter.

Source: http://mofa.gov.pk/message-from-h-e-imran-khan-prime-minister-
of-the-islamic-republic-of-pakistan-on-the-occasion-of-the-75th-
anniversary-of-the-united-nations/
.
130 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Document: 2
Statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime
Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian
Federation, November 10th, 2020.

W e, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan IlhamAliyev, Prime

Minister of the Republic of Armenia NikolPashinyan and
President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, hereby
declare the following:
1. A complete ceasefire and the termination of hostilities in the Nagorno-
Karabakh conflict zone will become effective as of midnight, Moscow
time, on November 10, 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the
Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, shall
remain in their current positions.
2. The Agdam District shall be returned to the Republic of Azerbaijan
before November 20, 2020.
3. A peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation comprising 1,960
military personnel with light weapons, 90 armoured personnel
carriers and 380 military and special vehicles shall be deployed along
the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin Corridor.
4. The deployment of the Russian peacekeeping force shall proceed
simultaneously with the withdrawal of Armenian troops. The
peacekeeping force will be deployed for the duration of five years, to
be tacitly extended for subsequent five-year periods unless either
party announces its intention to terminate this provision six months
before expiry.
5. A peacekeeping ceasefire verification centre shall be established to
enhance the monitoring of the compliance with the agreements by the
Parties to the conflict.
6. The Republic of Armenia shall cede the Kalbajar District to the
Republic of Azerbaijan before November 15, 2020, and the Lachin
District before December 1, 2020. The five-kilometre wide Lachin
Corridor, which will ensure connection between Nagorno-Karabakh
and Armenia but will not include the city of Shusha, shall be controlled
by the peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation. By agreement of
the Parties, a plan shall be coordinated in the next three years for the
construction of a new route in the Lachin Corridor to connect
Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, with the subsequent redeployment
of the Russian peacekeeping force to protect the new route. The
Republic of Azerbaijan shall guarantee the safe movement of people,
vehicles and cargo along the Lachin Corridor in both directions.
7. The internally displaced persons and refugees shall return to Nagorno-
Karabakh and the adjacent regions under the supervision of the UN
High Commissioner for Refugees.
Documents 131

8. The parties shall exchange prisoners of war, hostages, other detainees

and the dead.
9. The blockade of all economic and transport ties in the region shall be
lifted. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport
between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the
Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the aim of facilitating the free
movement of people, vehicles and cargo in both directions. The
oversight of transport communications shall be ensured with the
involvement of the agencies of Russia’s FSB Border Guard Service. By
agreement of the Parties, the construction of new transport
communications shall be launched to connect the Nakhichevan
Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan.

Source: https://en.president.az/articles/45924
132 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Document: 3
Ministers’ Declaration on India’s Participation in the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Virtual Meeting,
November 11th, 2020.

T
he RCEP Ministers of the Member States of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia,
Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand, Viet Nam – Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand (the
RCEP Signatory States), recognizing that India is not in a position to sign
the RCEP Agreement in 2020 together with the RCEP Signatory States, and
acknowledging the strategic importance of India eventually becoming a
party to the RCEP Agreement to create a region of even deeper and
expanded value chains for the benefit of all people in the region and
contribute further to the development of the global economy, have
confirmed the following:

1. The RCEP Agreement is open for accession by India from the date
of entry into force of the Agreement as provided in Article 20.9
(Accession) of the RCEP Agreement;
2. The RCEP Signatory States will commence negotiations with India
at any time after the signing of the RCEP Agreement once India
submits a request in writing of its intention to accede to the RCEP
Agreement to the Depositary of the RCEP Agreement, taking into
consideration the latest status of India’s participation in the RCEP
negotiations and any new development thereafter; and
3. Any time prior to its accession to the Agreement, India may
participate in RCEP meetings as an observer and in economic
cooperation activities undertaken by the RCEP Signatory States
under the RCEP Agreement, on terms and conditions to be jointly
decided upon by the RCEP Signatory States.

Expressing their strong will to re-engage India in the RCEP

Agreement, the RCEP Ministers affirmed that the abovementioned
arrangements will commence on the date of the signing of the RCEP
Agreement, and will continue until India accedes to the RCEP Agreement.

Source:https://www.meti.go.jp/press/2020/11/20201115001/2020111500
1-3.pdf
Documents 133

Document: 4
Joint Leaders’ Statement on the Fourth Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (Rcep), November 15th, 2020, Virtual Meeting.

We, the Heads of State/Government of the Member States of the

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei Darussalam,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam – Australia, China, Japan, Korea and
New Zealand, met virtually on 15 November 2020, on the occasion of the
4th RCEP Summit.
We were pleased to witness the signing of the RCEP Agreement,
which comes at a time when the world is confronted with the
unprecedented challenge brought about by the Coronavirus Disease 2019
(COVID-19) global pandemic. In light of the adverse impact of the
pandemic on our economies, and our people’s livelihood and well-being,
the signing of the RCEP Agreement demonstrates our strong commitment
to supporting economic recovery, inclusive development, job creation and
strengthening regional supply chains as well as our support for an open,
inclusive, rules-based trade and investment arrangement. We
acknowledge that the RCEP Agreement is critical for our region’s response
to the COVID-19 pandemic and will play an important role in building the
region’s resilience through inclusive and sustainable post-pandemic
economic recovery process.
We note that the RCEP Agreement is an unprecedented mega
regional trading arrangement that comprises a diverse mix of developed,
developing and least developed economies of the region. As an agreement
that would cover a market of 2.2 billion people, or almost 30% of the
world’s population, with a combined GDP of US$ 26.2 trillion or about 30%
of global GDP, and accounts for nearly 28% of global trade (based on 2019
figures), we believe that RCEP, being the world’s largest free trade
arrangement, represents an important step forward towards an ideal
framework of global trade and investment rules.
We also note that the RCEP Agreement is the most ambitious free
trade agreement initiated by ASEAN, which contributes to enhancing
ASEAN centrality in regional frameworks and strengthening ASEAN
cooperation with regional partners. With 20 Chapters, the RCEP
Agreement, as a modern, comprehensive, high-quality and mutually
beneficial agreement, includes areas and disciplines that were not
previously covered in the existing free trade agreements between ASEAN
and non-ASEAN countries participating in RCEP. Aside from the specific
provisions that cover trade in goods and services, and investment, RCEP
also includes chapters on intellectual property, electronic commerce,
competition, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), economic and
technical cooperation and government procurement. We are confident
that the RCEP Agreement would open a vast range of opportunities for
134 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

businesses located in the region especially in terms of market access given

the level of liberalisation for trade in goods and services and investment.
We agreed that the opportunities accruing from the RCEP
Agreement and its full potential can only be realised once the Agreement
enters into force. Towards this end, we task our officials to expedite
respective domestic ratification procedures for the early entry into force
of the Agreement, which will take place when at least six ASEAN Member
States and three non-ASEAN signatories deposit their instrument of
ratification, acceptance or approval with the Agreement’s Depositary. We
have also asked Ministers to develop RCEP as a platform for dialogue and
cooperation on trade and economic issues affecting the region and to
report to us regularly.
We are committed to ensuring that RCEP remains an open and
inclusive agreement. Further, we would highly value India’s role in RCEP
and reiterate that the RCEP remains open to India. As one of the 16
original participating countries, India’s accession to the RCEP Agreement
would be welcome in view of its participation in RCEP negotiations since
2012 and its strategic importance as a regional partner in creating deeper
and expanded regional value chains. In this regard, we welcomed the
“Ministers’ Declaration on India’s Participation in the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)” affirmed by the RCEP
Ministers, as attached.
Source: https://asean.org/joint-leaders-statement-regional-comprehensive-
economic-partnership-rcep-2/
Documents 135

Document: 5
Joint Statement on the Third U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue,27TH
October, 2020.

I
ndia’s Minister of Defence Rajnath Singh and Minister of External
Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar welcomed U.S. Secretary of State Michael R.
Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Dr. Mark T. Esper to New Delhi for
the third annual U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. The Ministers
welcomed the elevation of the U.S.-India relationship to a Comprehensive
Global Strategic Partnership during the visit of President Donald J. Trump
to India in February 2020. They reiterated their commitment to further
strengthening the U.S.-India partnership, anchored in mutual trust and
friendship, shared commitment to democracy, converging strategic
interests, and robust engagement of their citizens.
While celebrating more than seven decades of diplomatic engagement
between the United States and India, the Ministers intend to expand
cooperation under the 2+2 framework to realize the full potential of the
U.S.-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership.

Cooperation during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The Ministers applauded the exemplary cooperation between the
United States and India in confronting challenges emerging from the
COVID-19 pandemic. They reiterated their resolve to strengthen
cooperation in the development of vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics,
ventilators and other essential medical equipment. Recognizing that
bilateral engagement in research and development and the mass
production of vaccines and therapeutics plays to our respective strengths,
the Ministers sought to jointly promote access to high quality, safe,
effective and affordable COVID-19 vaccines and treatments on a global
scale. India expressed appreciation for the 200 ventilators provided by the
United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to the Indian
Red Cross Society, while the U.S. expressed appreciation for India’s export
of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), essential medicines, and
therapeutics to the United States during these challenging times. The
Ministers looked forward to the conclusion of an overarching MoU
between the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and
India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, including their component
agencies and departments, to enhance health cooperation, including on
health emergencies and pandemics, prevention, diagnosis and treatment
of communicable and non-communicable diseases, and biomedical
research and innovation. The Ministers also looked forward to the signing
of the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. National Institute
of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAD/NIH) and the Indian Council of
Medical Research (ICMR) to collaborate through an International Center of
Excellence in Research focused on infectious diseases including COVID-19
and other emerging threats. They welcomed the upcoming call for
136 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

applications for clinical research fellowships for early and mid-career

American and Indian scientists to help expand the cohort of physician
scientists focused on research that will advance clinical practice and
benefit public health in both countries. Noting the importance of health
sector cooperation, they also looked forward to convening the U.S.-India
Health Dialogue at an early date.
The Ministers reaffirmed efforts to enhance supply chain resilience
and to seek alternatives to the current paradigm, which had come under
severe strain during the pandemic and exposed critical vulnerabilities. The
Ministers sought to support the global economic recovery, including in
India and the United States, to emerge from the pandemic more resilient
than ever.
The Ministers expressed appreciation for the repatriation of
stranded U.S. and Indian nationals from both countries during the
pandemic.

Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific and Global Leadership

The Ministers reiterated their commitment to maintaining a free,
open, inclusive, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific built on a rules-
based international order, underpinned by ASEAN centrality, rule of law,
sustainable and transparent infrastructure investment, freedom of
navigation and overflight, mutual respect for sovereignty, and peaceful
resolution of disputes. Highlighting the importance of securing the
economic and security interests of all stakeholders having a legitimate
interest in the region, the Ministers welcomed the growing understanding
on the Indo-Pacific among like-minded countries. They reaffirmed that
closer U.S.-India cooperation will support shared interests in promoting
security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. They also
emphasized that the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea should not
prejudice the legitimate rights and interests of any nation in accordance
with international law.
The Ministers welcomed the recent convening of the Second
Australia-India-Japan-United States Quadrilateral Ministerial Meeting in
Tokyo on October 6, 2020. They appreciated the exchange of views on
regional issues of mutual interest, as well as ongoing cooperation related
to maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, regional
connectivity, health security and counter terrorism. The Ministers also
welcomed the fact that these Consultations would now be held annually.
They expressed their support for further strengthening Quad cooperation
through expanded activities, including initiating a dialogue among the
development organizations of partner countries.
The Ministers expressed their support for sustainable, transparent,
quality infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific region. They looked
forward to furthering collaboration between USAID and India’s
Development Partnership Administration (DPA) with a view to
Documents 137

undertaking joint projects in the region. The Ministers welcomed the

establishment of a permanent presence of the U.S. International
Development Finance Cooperation (DFC) in India this year. The United
States expressed strong support for the Coalition for Disaster Resilient
Infrastructure (CDRI) as a leading mechanism for promoting regional
economic development. Recognizing the need to contain the build-up of
sovereign debt in developing and low-income countries by ensuring
responsible, transparent, and sustainable financing practices for both
borrowers and creditors, the Ministers looked forward to exploring ways
to cooperate under the Blue Dot Network. They also looked forward to the
Second Indo-Pacific Business Forum (IPBF) to be held on October 28-29,
2020.
Building on a strong record of peacekeeping cooperation, the
Ministers decided to expand joint capacity building efforts with partner
countries in the Indo-Pacific and to participate in multilateral
peacekeeping training exercises.
The Ministers discussed their shared interest in promoting a
sovereign, peaceful, united, democratic, inclusive, stable and secure
Afghanistan, including support for an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace
process. They applauded India’s development assistance, and efforts to
build trade linkages and multi-modal connectivity infrastructure for
Afghanistan to enhance its regional connectivity to sustain growth and
development over the long term.
The United States congratulated India for its non-permanent
membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the term
2021-2022. The Ministers reiterated their commitment to work together
in close coordination at the UNSC and in International Organizations. The
U.S. also reaffirmed its continued strong support for India’s permanent
membership in a reformed UNSC as well as for India’s early entry into the
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Advancing the Defense and Security Partnership

Noting the 15th anniversary of the inaugural U.S.-India Defense
Framework Agreement, the Ministers commended what has become a
comprehensive, resilient, and multi-faceted Major Defense Partnership
(MDP) between the United States and India. They applauded the
significant step of the signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation
Agreement (BECA). They also welcomed enhanced maritime information
sharing and maritime domain awareness between their Navies and
affirmed their commitment to build upon existing defense information-
sharing at the joint-service and service-to-service levels and explore
potential new areas of mutually beneficial cooperation.
The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to deepening bilateral
defense consultation and collaboration and to exploring opportunities to
expand cooperative capacity-building efforts with partners across the
138 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

region. They also affirmed their commitment to pursue increased

cooperation between the Indian military and U.S. Central Command and
Africa Command, including broader participation in exercises and
conferences, so as to promote shared security interests. The U.S.
appreciated India’s leadership in establishing an Information Fusion
Centre for the Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR). The Ministers welcomed the
positioning of a Liaison Officer from the U.S. Navy at the IFC-IOR and the
positioning of an Indian Liaison Officer at NAVCENT, Bahrain and
reiterated their intent to assign additional Liaison Officers.
The Ministers expressed satisfaction at the ongoing progress in the
implementation of Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement
(LEMOA) and Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreement
(COMCASA), including the expansion of secure communications
capabilities to include secure video teleconference capabilities between
their respective Navies, Armies and Air Forces as well as between
respective Foreign and Defense Ministries. The Ministers welcomed the
convening of the Military Cooperation Group (MCG) later this year to
review bilateral military-to-military engagement including joint exercises,
training and expert exchanges. They looked forward to interaction
between the Special Forces of the United States and India.
The Ministers welcomed the inclusion of the Royal Australian Navy
in the U.S.-India-Japan MALABAR Naval Exercise scheduled to be held in
the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in November 2020. Highlighting the
importance of deepening maritime cooperation and the growing
sophistication of U.S.-India naval cooperation, the Ministers welcomed the
PASSEX carried out by the Navies of both countries. They also looked
forward to the convening of the next edition of the Tri-Services
Amphibious TIGER TRIUMPH HADR Exercise and Army Exercises YUDH
ABHYAS and VAJRA PRAHAR in 2021. The U.S. welcomed India’s co-
hosting of the Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference (IPACC), Indo-Pacific
Armies Management Seminar (IPAMS) and Senior Enlisted Leader Forum
(SELF) in 2023.
The Ministers decided to work together to realize the development
of their respective defense industries. Acknowledging India’s
contributions to the global supply chain of major defense platforms and
commitment to defense innovation, the Ministers reiterated the
importance of Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), and stated
their intention to fast track projects under DTTI. They noted with
satisfaction the signing of a Statement of Intent (SoI) at the 10th DTTI
meeting to strengthen dialogue on defense technology cooperation on
several specific DTTI projects as well as a DTTI Standard Operating
Procedure (SoP) for identification and development of joint projects. India
looked forward to the participation by the U.S. Government and defense
industry at the upcoming Aero-India in February 2021.
Documents 139

Recognizing the importance of cooperation in defense innovation,

the Ministers welcomed the inaugural meeting between the Indian
Defence Innovation Organization (DIO-iDEX) and U.S. Defense Innovation
Unit (DIU) in July 2020. They also looked forward to the inaugural
Industrial Security Annex (ISA) Summit later this year which would
further strengthen defense industrial cooperation between both countries.

Strengthening Bilateral U.S.-India Cooperation

The Ministers welcomed efforts to rejuvenate and expand bilateral
U.S.-India trade in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this regard, they
noted ongoing discussions by the Unites States Trade Representative and
India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry to reach an understanding on
improving market access, removing barriers to trade, and improving the
business environment.
The Ministers noted with satisfaction the significant strides made
under the four Pillars of the Strategic Energy Partnership (SEP) covering
Oil & Gas, Power and Energy Efficiency, Renewables and Sustainable
Growth. They also appreciated the progress made under the U.S.-India Gas
Task Force and the launch of industry-led projects. They welcomed the
announcement of new priorities and roadmap for each of the Pillars
during the Ministerial meeting of the SEP held on July 17, 2020. With the
objective of intensifying cooperation in the area of Strategic Petroleum
Reserves (SPRs), the Ministers welcomed the signing of the Memorandum
of Understanding in this regard.
Recalling the historic India-U.S. Civil Nuclear Agreement, the
Ministers welcomed the project Division of Responsibility principles
between the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and
Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) for the construction of six nuclear
reactors at Kovvada, and looked forward to the detailed Division of
Responsibility that would pave the way for a techno-commercial offer. The
Ministers also welcomed the extension of the MoU between the
Government of the United States of America and the Government of India
concerning cooperation with India’s Global Centre for Nuclear Energy
Partnership (GCNEP). The Ministers welcomed the virtual convening of
the 17th meeting of the U.S.-India Counter Terrorism Joint Working Group
and the 3rd Session of the U.S.-India Designations Dialogue on September
9-10, 2020. They denounced the use of terrorist proxies and strongly
condemned cross border terrorism in all its forms. They emphasised the
need for concerted action against all terrorist networks, including al-
Qaeda, ISIS/Daesh, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM)
and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen. The Ministers called on Pakistan to take
immediate, sustained and irreversible action to ensure that no territory
under its control is used for terrorist attacks, and to expeditiously bring to
justice the perpetrators and planners of all such attacks, including 26/11
Mumbai, Uri, and Pathankot. The Ministers also committed to continued
140 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

exchange of information about sanctions and designations against terror

groups and individuals, particularly in light of recent legislative changes in
India, as well as countering the financing and operations of terrorist
organizations, countering radicalism and terrorist use of the internet,
cross-border movement of terrorists, and prosecuting, rehabilitating, and
reintegrating returning terrorist fighters and family members.
The Ministers intend to enhance their ongoing cooperation in
multilateral fora, including the UN. They also reaffirmed their support for
the early adoption of a UN Comprehensive Convention on International
Terrorism (CCIT) that will advance and strengthen the framework for
global cooperation and reinforce the message that no cause or grievance
justifies terrorism.
In view of the announcement made during President Trump’s visit
to India to establish a new U.S.-India Counter-Narcotics Working Group,
the Ministers welcomed the proposal to convene the first such virtual
meeting later this year, with an in-person meeting in 2021, to enhance
cooperation between U.S. and Indian drug and law enforcement agencies.
The Ministers welcomed efforts by the U.S. Department of Homeland
Security and India’s Ministry of Home Affairs to reinvigorate the
Homeland Security Dialogue.
The Ministers welcomed the virtual convening of the U.S.-India
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Working Group on
October 1, 2020. They reaffirmed their commitment towards an open,
reliable and secure internet as well as the multi-stakeholder model of
internet governance. They emphasized fostering cooperation between
their industry and academia for an open, secure and resilient supply of
strategic material and critical infrastructure and to independently
evaluate the risk associated with deployment of emerging ICT
technologies, including 5G networks.
The Ministers also welcomed the recent convening of the annual
U.S.-India Cyber Dialogue on September 15, 2020 and the first U.S.-India
Defense Cyber Dialogue on September 17, 2020.
Recalling their countries’ proud record of achievement in space
science and satellite application, the Ministers applauded the ongoing
collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA) and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), including on the
NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite scheduled to be
launched by 2022. The Ministers also looked forward to sharing Space
Situational Awareness information, which will catalyze efforts to create
the conditions for a safe, stable, and sustainable space environment. They
also expressed the intent to continue the U.S.-India Space Dialogue as well
as discussions on areas of potential space defense cooperation.
The Ministers welcomed the signing of a Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) for Technical Cooperation in Earth Observation and
Earth Sciences between the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Documents 141

Administration and the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences for developing a

better understanding of regional and global weather origins in the Indian
Ocean and advancing common research goals in meteorology,
oceanography, and management of living marine resources. The Ministers
welcomed the signing of an Agreement between the United States Postal
Service and India’s Department of Post, which will facilitate the electronic
exchange of customs data related to postal shipments. They also
applauded the signing of the Letter of Intent (LoI) between the Office of
Cancer Complementary and Alternative Medicine, U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services and the Indian Central Council for Research in
Ayurvedic Sciences, Ministry of AYUSH.

Nurturing People–to-People Bonds

Underscoring the importance of ties between our respective
legislatures, the Ministers welcomed the launch of a U.S.-India
Parliamentary Exchange.
Applauding the entrepreneurial spirit of Indians and Indian-
Americans that has mutually benefitted both nations, the Ministers
recognized the important role of people-to-people linkages in
strengthening the overall bilateral relationship and economic ties. Both
sides look forward to the next iteration of the India-U.S. Consular Dialogue
to further increase cooperation and discuss issues of mutual concern,
including visas, and familial issues related to marriage, adoption and child
custody.
The Ministers welcomed the increasing number of Indian students
in the United States and acknowledged the role of expanding educational
ties and fostering entrepreneurship and scientific innovation. In this
context, the Ministers welcomed India’s National Education Policy (NEP)
2020 which would pave the way for enhanced collaboration between
academic institutions of both countries. The Ministers looked forward to
discussions to further advance U.S.-India educational partnerships.
Appreciating the valuable contribution of the Fulbright-Nehru
Program over the years in furthering exchange of outstanding academics
and professionals between both countries, the Ministers celebrated the
70th anniversary of the Program this year.
The Ministers welcomed the commencement of issuance of 12-
month reciprocal temporary duty visas to officials from both Governments
as a step to facilitate the growing partnership.
The United States looks forward to hosting the next 2+2 Ministerial
in 2021.

Source: https://in.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-on-the-third-u-s-india-
22-ministerial-dialogue/
 Guidelines for Contributors
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Subsequently only SAARC should be used without bracket.
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Submissions not based on Guidelines for Contributors will not be accepted.
 Journal of Contemporary Studies
Faculty of Contemporary Studies
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