Lecture # 1

EENG415Power System Reliability

Introduction

Dr. M. R. Qader

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 Outline
• About this class
• Introduction to reliability
• Basic steps in system reliability analysis
• Introduction to power systemreliability
• Power system reliability indexes and criterion

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 Assessment
• Three exams.
– Exam120%: …/… (……….)
– Exam2 20%: …/… (………..)
– Final 40%: …/…
• Homework and Project 20%, your own original
work.
– Plagiarism will be taken veryseriously.
– Homework to be submitted before class starts.
Homework submitted after the class starts will not be
graded.
• Seetentative syllabus.
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 Expectation
• Attend lecture.
• Do homework.
• And,..
• Please be considerate to other classmatesand
lecturer by coming to the class on time.
Lecture will start at 5 PM.

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 Scope
• Power System Reliability
– Electric power
– System
– Reliability
• Reliability theory applied to powersystems
• Analytical and simulation tools to conduct
reliability analysis

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 Objectives
• What you will learn from thisclass…
1. Understand basic reliability concepts and
reliability measures
2. Beable to perform reliability analysis of a
small system using analytical tools.
3. Beable to perform reliability analysis of a
large system using simulation tools.

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What is reliability?
What causes a system to fail?
How to modeluncertainties?

INTRODUCTION TO RELIABILITY

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Example 1: YouAre The Weakest
Link!?!?

"A chain is only asstrong asits weakest link”

Does this mean that system reliability is
determined by the least reliable componentin
the system?
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 Example 2: Identical Transmission
Lines
Line 1 Line 1

G Load G Load

Line 2
SystemA System B

• Which system is more reliable?

• Which system is likely to fail morethan
another ?
• Next question is how much?

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Example 3: Non-Identical Transmission
Lines
Line 1 Line 1

G Load G Load

Line 2
SystemA System B

• Which system is more reliable?

– Depend on t-line capability to deliver load,
generation capacity, load level, how eachline
perform
– How to quantify line performance?

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 Example 4: Identical Generators

100 100 100 100 100 100

Load 100 MW Load 100 MW Load 100 MW

SystemA System B System C

• Which system is more reliable?

• Which system is more cost-effective?

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 Example 5: Non-Identical Generators

100 100 100 150 150 300

Load 150 MW Load 150 MW Load 150 MW

SystemA System B System C

• Which system is more reliable?

– Depend on how each generator perform
– How to quantify generator performance?

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 What Is Reliability?
• Ability of a component/system to performits
intended function
• Within a specified period of time
• Under stated condition
→Qualitative sense in terms of performance
function, time, and surrounding conditions
How to quantify ‘reliability’?

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 Reliability
• Relate to the absence of failures, that due to
random phenomenon
• Define numerically as‘average’ or mean value
• Canbe treated asa parameter
• Canbe traded off with other parameterssuch
as cost

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 What causes a system to fail?
• Human factors
• System design
• Operation condition
• Maintenance procedure
• Deterioration (function of time)
• Random failures
• Uncertainties…

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 How to model ‘Uncertainty’?
• Probability of failure
– Chance that a component will fail
– Probabilistic value with nounit
– May be difficult to interpret
• Frequency of failure
– In terms of number of failure within specified time
– Easier to predict from history
– Express in per hour, per day, per year
• We will discover later on in this course how to
relate frequency of failure to probability of failure
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 Example 5: Transmission lines
100 MW 100 MW

G Load
100 MW
G Load
100 MW
100 MW
SystemA System B
• Given that each system has the following levelof
reliability
System Failure Probability Cost (million SGD)
A 0.009 70
B 0.01 25

• Which system is more reliable?

• Which system is more cost-effective?
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 Example 5: Identical Generators

100 100 100 100 100 100

Load 100 MW Load 100 MW Load 100 MW

SystemA System B System C
• If each system hasthe
following level of System Failure Cost
reliability and cost Probabilit (million SGD)
y
• Which system is more A 0.001 300
reliable?
B 0.01 200
• Which system is more C 0.1 100
cost-effective?
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Motivations for Quantitative Reliability
• Toevaluate systemperformance
• System design purpose
• Trade-off reliability with cost
• Increasing complexity of systems
• Competitiveness
• Establish standard in operation procedure

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Objective of the analysis
Component modeling
System modeling
Performance function
Reliability Evaluation

BASIC STEPS IN SYSTEMRELIABILITY

ANALYSIS

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 Objective
• Interest to know the likelihood that a component
or a system will fail.
– Time-to-failure distribution of a
component/system.
• Helps to predict the failure probability at any
point in time
• For a complex system, need to estimate reliability
index for design and operation purposes.
• Need to start with the component modeling
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 Component Modeling
• Identify components in the system
• Describe state of eachcomponent
– For example, a generator has two states, up or
down.
• In terms of probability distribution
– For example, a generator fails with probability of
failure = 0.01.
• Stochastic process model

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Observation of AComponent
Z(t)
2

0
Z(t) Time
2

Time
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 System Modeling
• System configuration/topology
• How each component interact
C1 C1 C2 C8

C6 C3 C9
C2

C5 C11 C7
C1 C2

C10 C4 C12

Need to know how each device causes a system to fail! 24

 Performance Function
• Toevaluate systemreliability
• Recall,

Ability of a system to performits

intended function

• Need to define “intendedfunction”

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 Reliability Evaluation
• Eachcomponent described by random variables
– For example, a generator has 3 capacity output, 100
MW with 0.85 probability, 50 MW with 0.14
probability, 0 MW with 0.01probability
• System states constructed from possible
combinations of component states
• Evaluate performance function of eachsystem
state
• Calculate reliability index
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Functional Zones in PowerSystems
Objective of Reliability Analysis
Levels of Reliability Analysis
Power System Reliability Indexes

INTRODUCTION TOPOWER
SYSTEMS

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Functional Zones of Power Systems
• Generation system
– Generators
– Load
• Transmission system
– High voltage transmission lines
• Distribution system
– Low voltage transmission lines
– End users

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 Main Components of a PowerSystem

• Generation (11 – 36 KV)

• Transmission and distribution (110 – 765 KV)
• Load (0.12 – 138 KV)
– Industrial customer (23 – 138 KV)
– Commercial customer (4.16 – 34.5 KV)
– Residential customer (120 – 240 V)

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Generation Capacity

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 Transmission and Distribution
• Interconnected network
• Transformers used to step up voltages from generation
units to transmission-line.
• High voltage used when transmitting power to lowerI2R
loss for better efficiency.
• Distribution systems can provide power at different voltage
levels for different loads.

Transmission network Distribution network

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 Electric PowerConnections

http://www.nerc.com/regional/NERC_Interconnections_color.jpg

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Power Grid
• 400 kV,230 kV,and 66 kV
• Full underground cable
• Four 230 kV zones
connected by meshed
400 kV
Zone Maximum Import capacity(MW)
A 1275
B 1275
C 1275
D 1275

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 Load

• Varies with time • Typical weekly load

– Moment-to-moment curve, data from ERCOT
fluctuations 4
x 10 ERCOT Weekly Load Curve from Aug. 19th to Aug. 22, 2006

– Hour-to-hour changes 6

– Daily 5

4
– Weekly

Load (MW)
3

– Seasonal
2

• Base load counts for 1

less than a half of peak 0

Sun. Mon. Tue. W ed.

load.
Day

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 Electric Demand

• Peak demand in 2007 is 5946 MW.

• Electricity demand in 2007 is 41134 GWh. 39
Operational Conditions
Secure operation
Component physical limit.
How to operate the systemsecurely?

Economic operation
Cost of operation differs by type offuel.
How to operate the system withleast cost?

Reliable operation
Power Quality, interruptions,
brownout and blackout
How to operate the systemreliably?
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 Uncertainties in Power Systems
• Generation
– Generating units withfailure and repair rates
– Generating capacity associated with probability
• Transmission line capacity
– Transmission line with failureand repair rates
– Transmission line capacity associated with probability
• System load
– Vary with time
– Construct load distribution from history
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 Objective of Reliability Analysis
• The function of power system is to serveload.
• We want to have,
Generation > Load

• For most of the time,

• With least cost.

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 Three Areas of Reliability Analysis
1. Generating capacity reliability
– Concern with generation adequacy
2. Composite system reliability
– Consider both generation and transmission lines
3. Distribution system reliability
– Local network connected to end-users

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 Generating Capacity Reliability
1. Single-area reliability analysis
– All generators and loads are connected to a
single bus
2. Multi-area reliability analysis
– Generators and loads within area are connected
to a single bus
– Consider tie-lines between areas
– Limitation of intra-area transmission areincluded
when determining inter-area transmission
capability
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 Single Area Reliability Analysis
• Interest to find out the ability of existing
generation to serveload
• Single bus analysis
• Generators and loads are within the samebus
• Eachgenerators has their own performance
indexes

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 Composite System Reliability
• Concern with
generation and
transmission capability
adequacy
• High-voltage
transmission lines
• May include high-
voltage transformers,
circuit breakers http://www.powerworld.com/images/7-bus%20Oneline.jpg

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 Multi-Area Reliability Analysis
• Interest to find out if area
generation or tie-line
capability are adequate to
serve load
• Consider thousands of
nodes then simplify the
system to smallworkable
nodes (areas)
• Generator and load from
different nodes within the
same area are grouped into
one.
• Tie-line capability between
areas

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 Distribution System Reliability
• Interest to find outthe
reliability level at load
point
• Network configuration/
topology
• Analysis takes into
account reliability of the
following low-voltage
components,
– Transformers http://www.tpub.com/content/construction/14027/css/14027_63.htm

– Circuit breakers
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Reliability indexes
Reliability criterion

POWER SYSTEMS RELIABILITY

INDEXES AND CRITERION

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 Power Systems Reliability Indexes
• Deterministic indexes
– Do not take into account the uncertaintiesthat
affect reliability
– Simple calculation
– Require less data
• Probabilistic indexes
– Reflect uncertainties in the system
– Require failure statistics of the devices

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 Deterministic Indexes
• Operating reserve margin
– Excessgeneration capacity in case of emergency
• Percentage reserve
– Amount of reserve capacity asa percentage of the
total peak load
• Reserve margin asthe largest unit online
– Amount of reserve equals to the capacity of the
largest unit online

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 Probabilistic Indexes
• Lossof load probability
– Probability that generation will notmeet demand
in a year
– Commonly shown asnumber of hours/days. (by
multiply LOLPby number of hours/days in a year)
• Lossof load frequency
– How often does the system fail in ayear
• Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS)or
Expected Unserved Energy (EUE)

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 Why need reliability criterion?
• Develop standardized quantity
• Planning and Operation purposes
– Toavoid catastrophicfailures
• Design problems

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Power Systems Reliability Criterion
• Deterministic criteria
– N-m contingency analysis
– System with ‘N’ components should be able to
serve peak load when loss ‘m’ components
– Sometimes called security analysis
• Probabilistic criteria
– Lossof load expectation, for example, 1 day in 10
years

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 Cost-Benefit Analysis
• High reliability achieved with high cost
• Is it worthwhile to have high reliability?

http://www.eppo.go.th/power/ERI-study-E/ERI-EOCS-1-E.html
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 Summary
• We know what reliability is
• We know a bit about power systemreliability
• We need to know
– Probability theory
– Reliability theory
– Random processes

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 Reading Materials
• Review basic probability theory
– Random variables
– Probability rules (addition, multiplication,
– Conditional probability
– Probability distribution functions

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