Confidence Intervals for a Population Mean

INTRODUCTION

Commute time is the amount of time it takes to travel from one place to the other—for example, the time it
takes for students at your college to get from their homes to school. Think about the mean commute time of
students at your college. Do you think it is longer than a half hour? Is it less than an hour? Do you think it is
similar to the mean commute time for students in your class?

In this lesson, we are beginning the process of making inferences about the mean of a population. We use
the T-distribution to compute margins of error and confidence intervals for a population mean.

With what we learn using the T-distribution, we will make inferences regarding the mean commute time for
students at the college.

Understanding T-Distribution Critical Values

In Module 7, we computed confidence intervals for population proportions using sample statistics and
critical values. Since we did not know the population proportion (p), the margin of error in a sample
䮱
proportion ( p ) was computed using the formula
䮱 䮱

E = Zc ⋅ √ p (1 − p )
n

Remember:

● The margin of error is equal to a Z critical value multiplied by the estimated standard error for
sample proportions.
● The sample proportion is a point estimate. The resulting confidence interval (an interval estimate) is
䮱 䮱
( p − E, p + E )

We use sample means to estimate a population mean. Notice that in the formula below, we are now using •
to approximate σ:
x−μ
T = s
n

The test statistic varies according to the T-distribution with n – 1 degrees of freedom.

To compute the margin of error in a sample mean, we multiply a T critical value (not Z) by the estimated
standard error for sample means, sn .

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The margin of error in a sample mean is given by

E = T c ⋅ ̼sn

The sample mean is the point estimate for the population mean. The resulting confidence interval is

(x − E, x + E )

Another way to write the confidence interval for a population mean is

x±E

There are several important things to remember about the T-distribution:

● The proportion of the T-distribution contained between the critical value ( T c ) and its opposite is
equal to the confidence level.
● The T-distribution varies with degrees of freedom.
● T critical values depend on both the confidence level and degrees of freedom.

Below, you will find a partial table of T-distribution critical values. When we use the table, or technology, it is
possible to find T critical values for different combinations of confidence levels and degrees of freedom.

Critical Values for the T-Distribution

Confidence Level
d.f. 90% 95% 98% 99%
1 6.31 12.71 31.82 63.66
2 2.92 4.30 6.97 9.93
3 2.35 3.18 4.54 5.84
4 2.13 2.78 3.75 4.60
5 2.02 2.57 3.37 4.03
… … … … …
9 1.83 2.26 2.82 3.25
10 1.81 2.23 2.76 3.17
11 1.80 2.20 2.72 3.11
12 1.78 2.18 2.68 3.06
13 1.77 2.16 2.65 3.01
14 1.76 2.15 2.62 2.98
15 1.75 2.13 2.60 2.95
16 1.75 2.12 2.58 2.92
…. … … … …
40 1.68 2.02 2.42 2.70

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TRY THESE

The questions below are designed to help you think about the relationships between:

● Degrees of freedom
● Margins of error in confidence intervals
● Sample size
● Confidence Intervals
● Precision of confidence intervals
● Critical values and confidence intervals

To answer the questions, use the margin of error formula and the T-distribution table above.

1 For a given confidence level, as the degrees of freedom increase, what happens to the critical values?

2 For a given confidence level, as the degrees of freedom increase, what happens to the margins of error
in the confidence intervals?

3 Larger degrees of freedom result from larger sample sizes. What does this imply about the relationship
between the sample size and the precision of the confidence interval?

4 For given degrees of freedom, what happens to the critical values as the confidence level increases?

5 For given degrees of freedom, what happens to the margins of error in the confidence intervals as the
confidence level increases?

6 What do your answers (in Questions 1–5) imply about the relationship between the confidence level and
the precision of the confidence interval?

ȋͳȌ Answer: They get smaller.

ȋʹȌ Answer: They get smaller.

ȋ͵Ȍ Answer: As the sample size increases, the confidence interval is smaller, so it is more precise.

ȋͶȌ Answer: They get larger.

ȋͷȌ Answer: They get larger.

ȋ͸Ȍ Answer: As the confidence level increases, the confidence interval gets wider, so it is less precise.
TRY THESE

How Long Did it Take to Get Here?

What is the average commute time for students at your college? This may not seem very important, but for
the administration and staff who schedule classes and plan activities, travel time is an important factor.
Using sample data from your small group, compute a 95% confidence interval for the mean commute time
of all students. Assume that commute times at your college are normally distributed. (Note: This assumption
about the population allows us to conclude that the distribution of the sample means is normal and enables
us to compute confidence intervals using sample sizes less than 30.)

7 List the commute times in your sample (in minutes). Here’s an example data table to get you started:

Name of Student Commute Time

1.
2.
3.

8 Determine the sample mean, sample standard deviation, and sample size of your sample.

9 Determine the critical value Tc that corresponds to the 95% confidence level.

10 Compute the margin of error (E).

11 Construct the 95% confidence interval.

12 Interpret your confidence interval. What does the confidence interval say about the commute time for
all students in your college?

ȋ͹Ȍ Answers will vary.

ȋͺȌ Answers will vary.

ȋͻȌ Answer: This depends on the degrees of freedom. For example, if †ǤˆǤ = 2, Tc = 4.30; if †ǤˆǤ = 3, Tc =
3.18.

ȋͳͲȌ Answers will vary.

ȋͳͳȌ Answers will vary.

ȋͳʹȌ Answer: We are 95% confident that the mean commute time for all students at our college is
between __________ and __________.
YOU NEED TO KNOW

Steps for Computing a Confidence Interval for a Population Mean

(1) Verify that the normality criteria for sample means are met: either  > 30, or the population from
which we are sampling is normal.
(2) Determine the critical value (T… ) that corresponds to the chosen confidence level and the degrees of
freedom.
(3) Compute the margin of error:
s
E = Tc ⋅ n

(4) Construct the confidence interval:

(x − E, x + E )

(5) Interpret the confidence interval in context. In theory, the confidence level is the proportion of
intervals that contain the population mean, μ. In practice, our interval is based on sample data. The
confidence level represents how confident we are that our interval contains the population mean.

TRY THESE

Constructing Confidence Intervals

13 Suppose that researchers measured the resting pulse rates of adult males who were involved in a study
of the effectiveness of a bicycle exercise regimen. The table below shows the participants’ pulse rates (in
heartbeats per minute). You should assume that these values are sampled from a normal population.
Construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean resting pulse rate for all adult males.

65 82 87 64 77
89 77 73 78 88
79 83 85 87 82
91 87 85 87 73
88 78 74 78 88
82 77 59 97 84
87 85 87 83 79
73 83 85 87 91
99

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 A In this problem, are the criteria for sampling distribution normality met? Why or why not?

B Determine the sample mean, sample standard deviation, and sample size.

C Determine the critical value that corresponds to the 90% confidence level.

D Compute the margin of error (E) for a 90% confidence interval.

E Construct a 90% confidence interval.

F Interpret your confidence interval in context.

(13A) Answer: Yes, because we have 41 data points (more than 30).

(13B) Answer: x = 82.0, s = 8.13, n = 41 .

(13C) Answer: T c = 1.68 .

8.13
(13D) Answer: E = 1.68 ⋅ ̼ 41
= 2.133 .

(13E) Answer: (82.0 a 2.133, 82.0 + 2.133) = (79.867, 84.133) .

(13F) Answer: We are 90% confident that the mean resting pulse rate for adult males is between
79.9 beats per minute and 84.1 beats per minute.

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