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MATHS2003 03 Notes

The document contains examples of probability distributions and calculations. It includes the probability distribution and calculations of expected value, variance and standard deviation for a dice game that pays $3 for rolls of 1-5 and $15 for a roll of 6. The probability of rolling 1-5 is 5/6 and of rolling a 6 is 1/6. The expected return is $5, the variance is 20 and the standard deviation is 4.47.

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Scott Stuckey
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67 views3 pages

MATHS2003 03 Notes

The document contains examples of probability distributions and calculations. It includes the probability distribution and calculations of expected value, variance and standard deviation for a dice game that pays $3 for rolls of 1-5 and $15 for a roll of 6. The probability of rolling 1-5 is 5/6 and of rolling a 6 is 1/6. The expected return is $5, the variance is 20 and the standard deviation is 4.47.

Uploaded by

Scott Stuckey
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Slide 6 Example P(R) = 1/3 * 1/3 +1/6 * 1/3 + ½ * 5/9 = 1/9 +1/18 + 5/18 =

Three bowls
• Bowl B1 contains 2 red and 4 white chips
8/18 = 4/9
• Bowl B2 contains 1 red and 2 white chips
• Bowl B3 contains 5 red and 4 white chips
The probabilities for selecting the bowls:
• P(B1)=1/3, P(B2)=1/6, P(B3)=1/2

The experiment consists of selecting a bowl and then


drawing a chip from that bowl
What is the probability of event R (red)

Slide 10 Example • (1/3 * 1/3) / (4/9) = ¼


Suppose that the outcome is a red chip
• What is the probability that it came from B1?
• (1/6 * 1/3) / (4/9) = 1/8
• What is the probability that it came from B2?
• What is the probability that it came from B3?
• (1/2 * 5/9) / (4/9) = 5/8
• Compare the original probabilities with the conditional probabilities.
Intuitively, does it make sense?

Slide 11 Example P(H) = 0.01 * 0.9 + 0.005 * 0.95 + 0.02 * 0.75 = 0.02875
Medical case histories indicate that different illnesses may
produce identical symptoms. Suppose a particular set of P(A|H) = 0.01 * 0.9 / 0.02875 = 0.31
symptoms, which we will denote as event H, occurs only
when any one of three illnesses A, B, or C occurs. Studies
show these probabilities of getting the three illnesses:
P(A) = 0.01; P(B) = 0.005; P(C) = 0.02
The probabilities of developing the symptoms H, given a
specific illness, are:
P(H|A) = 0.90; P(H|B) = 0.95; P(H|C) = 0.75
Assuming a person shows the symptoms H, what is the
probability that the person has illness A?

Slide 12 Example • 0.35 * 0.02 +0.25 * 0.01 + 0.4 * 0.03 = 0.0215


In a certain factory, machines I, II and III are all producing
wires of the same length • 0.4 * 0.03 / 0.0215 = 0.56
Of their production, machines I, II and III produce 2%, 1%
and 3% defective wires, respectively
Of the total wire production, machine I produces 35%,
machine II produces 25%, and machine III produces 40%
• If one wire is randomly selected, what is the probability that it is
defective?
• If the wire is defective, what is the probability that it was produced
by machine III?

Slide 15 Mean 83 / 6 = 13.8


Example 1
• The number of hours that 6 students watched television
during an exam week are shown below:
10, 15, 24, 6, 18, 10
Determine the mean number of hours these students
spent watching television

Slide 17 Median • 3
Example 2
• The number of typing mistakes per page from 5
• (6 + 9) / 2 = 7.5
secretaries follow:
3, 6, 15, 2, 0
Find the median number of mistakes per page
• Find the median for the following set of numbers:
2, 5, 6, 9, 11, 27
Slide 18 Measures of Central Location 10
Mode
• Value that occurs most frequently
• If there are 2 modes then the distribution is said to be
bimodal

• Find the mode for the number of hours spent watching


television
10, 15, 24, 6, 18, 10

Slide 19 Measures of Variability 180 / 12 = 15


Measures of central tendency do not tell the whole story
about a distribution of measurements
Consider the average monthly rainfall in 2 areas

A: 35 45 22 15 2 4 6 2 4 4 20 21
B: 15 16 15 15 13 12 15 16 16 16 15 16

• Determine mean for both areas


• Which area would you choose for a farm that needs constant
watering?

Slide 24 Example (1.2,19.2)


Telephone-call durations have been recorded for a company.
The calls have a mean of 10.2 and standard deviation of 4.5
minutes
• If the distribution is bell-shaped, 95% of the calls lie in
what interval?

Slide 25 Example • 68%


It is known that the average income of 1000 employees has
a mound-shaped distribution with an average of $45,000 and
standard deviation of $5,000. How many employees would
• 95%
you expect to earn between:
a. $40,000 - $50,000
• 100%
b. $35,000 - $55,000
c. $30,000 - $60,000

Slide 31 Examples X| 0 1 2
Toss two fair coins and let X be equal to the number of
heads observed -----------------------------------------------------
• Find the probability distribution for X
p| ¼ ½ ¼
Roll a 4-sided die twice and let X equal the larger of the two
outcomes
• Write down the probability distribution for this
experiment
X| 1 2 3 4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
p| 1/16 3/16 5/16 7/16

Slide 32 Distribution Function F(x) = 0 if x<2


Instead of considering events such as {X=x} and the
corresponding probabilities P(X=x), one can consider the F(x) = 2/9 if 2≤x<3
F(x) = 5/9 if 3≤x<4
probabilities P(X≤x)
The function F(x) = P(X≤x) is known as the distribution
function
F(x) = 1 if x≥4
Example:
Let the pdf of X be defined by p(x) = x/9, x = 2,3,4
Determine the distribution function and sketch its graph
Slide 33 Expected Value 1*½+2*¼=1
Value that you would expect to observe on average if the
experiment is repeated over and over again
n
  E ( X )   xi p( xi )
i 1

Ex. Consider the probability distribution again for the number


of heads from two tosses of a coin. Suppose the experiment
is repeated a large number of times
How many heads would you expect to get on average?

Slide 36 Example X| 3 15
Consider a dice game in which the player rolls a die
If any number from 1 through 5 is rolled, the player receives
-------------------------------------
a return of $3
If a six is rolled, the return is $15
p| 5/6 1/6
• Write down the probability distribution
• What is the expected return?
• What is the variance of the probability distribution?
• What is the standard deviation?
E(X) = 5
σ2 = (3 – 5)2 * 5/6 + (15 – 5)2 * 1/6 = 120/6 = 20
σ = 4.47

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