Scribd
Upload
24 views10 pages

L9 Statistical Method

Uploaded by

Rachit Gandhi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
24 views10 pages

L9 Statistical Method

Uploaded by

Rachit Gandhi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 10

Engineering

HYDROLOGY

Statistical method

Okedi John
Statistics - overview
Flood flow prediction procedure – statistical method
➢ Plot time series and extract annual maxima (or peak over threshold i.e. POT)
River Flow
20,0

15,0
River flow (m3/s)

10,0

5,0

0,0
1997/01/01 1998/01/01 1999/01/01 2000/01/01 2000/12/31 2001/12/31
Exceedance probability and Return period
Rank data from largest to smallest and assign rank numbers – flood study
Rank data from smallest to largest and assign rank numbers – drought study

Year Flows Rank After ranking, determine


➢ Exceedance probability
1998 19.5 1
➢ Return period
2001 15.1 2
1999 14.5 3 1
P=
𝑇
2000 13.2 4 Where P – exceedance probability
1997 9.1 5 T – return period
➢ Select method for calculating return period – plotting position

n + a
T=
m − b

Where
T - Return period (T) in years – average period during which an event (e.g. peak flow) repeats or exceeds itself.
n – length of record in years
m – rank number of the annual peak flood
a and b - constants
Plotting positions - graph

River flow (m3/s)

Return period (years)


Plotting positions - discussion
P(X ≥ x) P(X ≤ x) P(X ≥ x) = 1 - P(X ≤ x)
Probability of Probability of Non-
Rank Exceedance Exceedance

1ൗ 𝑛Τ 𝑚 (𝑛 − 𝑚 + 1)
1 𝑛 𝑛 =1−
𝑛 𝑛
2 2ൗ (𝑛 − 1)ൗ
𝑛 𝑛
𝑛 𝑚 1
3 3ൗ
𝑛 (𝑛 − 2)ൗ =1− + −
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
. . .
𝑚−1
m 𝑚Τ
𝑛 (𝑛 − 𝑚 + 1)ൗ =
𝑛 𝑛
n 𝑛Τ
𝑛 1ൗ 𝑚 − 0.5
𝑛 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎 =
𝑛
➢ Statistical distribution of data – Projection to higher recurrence intervals
EXAMPLE
From a flow record of 69 years selected using the annual maxima, the ten highest values are:

360 304 294 264 294 258 246 244 244 239

Using the Gringorten method, determine the 10, 100 and 1000 years reccurence precipitation
Solution
1000
n 69 Measured
a 0.12 Projection
b 0.44

Flow (m3/s)
Flow (m3/s) Rank Return period (T)
360 1 123
306 2 44 y = 43,457ln(x) + 144,89
294 3 27
264 4 19
258 5 15
246 6 12
244 7 11
244 8 9
243 9 8
239 10 7 100
1 10 100 1000
Return period (years)

You might also like