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Lesson2 Extrapolation Technique and MCSs Motion With Record Simple

This lesson discusses extrapolation techniques and motion forecasting of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It introduces the SCIT, TITAN, and TREC extrapolation nowcasting systems used by China's operational forecast centers. Key factors that influence MCS motion such as environmental wind shear, cold pool dynamics, and moisture gradients are explained. Accuracy statistics of SCIT for different storm types and lead times are provided. Examples of TITAN forecasts of squall line initiation and maintenance are shown.

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58 views

Lesson2 Extrapolation Technique and MCSs Motion With Record Simple

This lesson discusses extrapolation techniques and motion forecasting of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It introduces the SCIT, TITAN, and TREC extrapolation nowcasting systems used by China's operational forecast centers. Key factors that influence MCS motion such as environmental wind shear, cold pool dynamics, and moisture gradients are explained. Accuracy statistics of SCIT for different storm types and lead times are provided. Examples of TITAN forecasts of squall line initiation and maintenance are shown.

Uploaded by

Awatif Maisara
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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severe convective weather

operational nowcasting

Lesson 2： extrapolation technique and MCSs motion

Dr. Xiuming Wang


China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing
2020.07
10mm

Blend
NWP
25mm
BJ-ANC
Harmony Search Algorithm

This recently developed HS


algorithm is conceptualized
using the musical process of
searching for a perfect state
of harmony. It uses a
stochastic random search
instead of a gradient search
so that derivative
information is unnecessary.

Yoon, S. S. (2019). Adaptive Blending Method of Radar-Based and


Numerical Weather Prediction QPFs for Urban Flood Forecasting.
Remote Sensing, 11(6), 642.
extrapolation

 SCIT
 TITAN
 TREC
Storm Cell Identification and
Tracking: SCIT

Identify and track each storm


cell and give its past, present and
future (up to 1hour) positions.
Attributes table
Attributes table
Attributes table
centroid
POD for various kind of storms (30-39dBZ,40-49dBZ, 50dBZ above)
Type POD
Isolated Severe Storm 27% 70% 96%
Isolated Non-Severe Storm 43% 68% 97%
MCS/Line 25% 64% 96%
Mini-supercell 71% 82% 96%

Average Errors of SCIT for different Lead Time

Lead Time（Minutes） Number of Samples Average Errors（km


）
5 898 2.0
15 498 5.0
30 227 9.9
45 109 15.2
60 55 22.8
TITAN
16:39BT

squall line maitain

30 minute forecast of TITAN（Purple polygon）and


observation（reflectivity shaded） of the squall line on
August 24, 2002 Anhui Province
16:08BT

squall line initiation stage

30 minute forecast of TITAN（Purple polygon）and


observation（reflectivity shaded） of the squall line on
August 24, 2002 Anhui Province
SWAN(severe weather automatic nowcasting), China's main extrapolation nowcast system use TITAN

Thunderstorm Identification ,Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting


Composite reflectivity
Outflows in varying environmental shear scenarios

single cell convection

outflow

Multicelluar
convection

wind shear

cold pool
the lift is weak and the lift is strong and
the weak updraft is under LFC the strong updraft reach LFC, so new CI
Markowski and Richardson (2010)
multicell motion

NE

south Multi Cell Storms motion


Speed

direction

Corfidi(1996)
MCSs motion

From Markowski 2012


cold pools tend to
elongate in
the direction of the
mean wind

average downwind gust-


front speed may be
progressive
estimated by the mean
cloud-layer wind

(right) Plan view of an elongating cold pool, with cross sections perpendicular to the gust
front along (top) a quasi-stationary segment and (bottom) a progressive segment, showing
Corfidi(2003)
direction of cell propagation
MCS motion

error speed 5m/s direction 20degree


38/48 success 10failure
progressive

1626

1800
-1K

Multicellular concevtion
W move to the weter flank
for smaller CIN

wet water vapor


mix ratio

original From Richardson1999 pic From Markowski2010

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