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No 4

This document contains sales data and forecasts using two different forecasting methods: a 3-month moving average and an exponential smoothing method with α=0.6. For each method, the forecast errors, mean absolute deviation (MAD), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are calculated. Based on the analysis, the 3-month moving average method results in higher average MAD and MAPE values, indicating it provides less accurate forecasts compared to the exponential smoothing method with α=0.6.

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Jordan Miracle
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45 views

No 4

This document contains sales data and forecasts using two different forecasting methods: a 3-month moving average and an exponential smoothing method with α=0.6. For each method, the forecast errors, mean absolute deviation (MAD), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are calculated. Based on the analysis, the 3-month moving average method results in higher average MAD and MAPE values, indicating it provides less accurate forecasts compared to the exponential smoothing method with α=0.6.

Uploaded by

Jordan Miracle
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Jordan Miracle Hardiansyah - 02012190004 - Akuntansi 2019

SOAL 4

a Three Month Moving Average


Months Sales Forecast
January $ 3,000 $ 4,363
February $ 3,400 $ 3,938
March $ 3,700 $ 3,500
April $ 4,100 $ 3,238
May $ 4,700 $ 3,600
June $ 5,700 $ 3,975
July $ 6,300 $ 4,525
August $ 7,200 $ 5,275
September $ 6,400 $ 6,113
October $ 4,600 $ 6,650
November $ 4,200 $ 6,575
December $ 3,900 $ 5,450

b α = 0.6
Months Sales Forecast α=0.6
January $ 3,000 $ 3,200
February $ 3,400 $ 3,080
March $ 3,700 $ 3,272
April $ 4,100 $ 3,529
May $ 4,700 $ 3,872
June $ 5,700 $ 4,369
July $ 6,300 $ 5,167
August $ 7,200 $ 5,847
September $ 6,400 $ 6,659
October $ 4,600 $ 6,504
November $ 4,200 $ 5,361
December $ 3,900 $ 4,665

c Three Month Moving Average α = 0.6


Months Sales Forecast Error MAD Months Sales Forecast α=0.6 Error MAD
January $ 3,000 $ 4,363 $(1,363) $ 1,363 January $ 3,000 $ 3,200 $ (200) $ 200
February $ 3,400 $ 3,938 $ (538) $ 538 February $ 3,400 $ 3,080 $ 320 $ 320
March $ 3,700 $ 3,500 $ 200 $ 200 March $ 3,700 $ 3,272 $ 428 $ 428
April $ 4,100 $ 3,238 $ 863 $ 863 April $ 4,100 $ 3,529 $ 571 $ 571
May $ 4,700 $ 3,600 $ 1,100 $ 1,100 May $ 4,700 $ 3,872 $ 828 $ 828
June $ 5,700 $ 3,975 $ 1,725 $ 1,725 June $ 5,700 $ 4,369 $ 1,331 $ 1,331
July $ 6,300 $ 4,525 $ 1,775 $ 1,775 July $ 6,300 $ 5,167 $ 1,133 $ 1,133
August $ 7,200 $ 5,275 $ 1,925 $ 1,925 August $ 7,200 $ 5,847 $ 1,353 $ 1,353
September $ 6,400 $ 6,113 $ 288 $ 288 September $ 6,400 $ 6,659 $ (259) $ 259
October $ 4,600 $ 6,650 $(2,050) $ 2,050 October $ 4,600 $ 6,504 $(1,904) $ 1,904
November $ 4,200 $ 6,575 $(2,375) $ 2,375 November $ 4,200 $ 5,361 $(1,161) $ 1,161
December $ 3,900 $ 5,450 $(1,550) $ 1,550 December $ 3,900 $ 4,665 $ (765) $ 765

Average MAD (Apr-Dec) = $ 1,517 Average MAD (Apr-Dec) = $ 1,034

Saya menyarankan untuk menggunakan metode rata-rata 3 bulan, karena menunujukan rata-rate lebih tinggi yaitu $1,517
d Three Month Moving Average α = 0.6
Months Sales Forecast Error MAD MAPE Months Sales Forecast α=0.6 Error MAD MAPE
January $ 3,000 $ 4,363 $(1,363) $ 1,363 45.42% January $ 3,000 $ 3,200 $ (200) $ 200 6.25%
February $ 3,400 $ 3,938 $ (538) $ 538 15.81% February $ 3,400 $ 3,080 $ 320 $ 320 10.39%
March $ 3,700 $ 3,500 $ 200 $ 200 5.41% March $ 3,700 $ 3,272 $ 428 $ 428 13.08%
April $ 4,100 $ 3,238 $ 863 $ 863 21.04% April $ 4,100 $ 3,529 $ 571 $ 571 16.19%
May $ 4,700 $ 3,600 $ 1,100 $ 1,100 23.40% May $ 4,700 $ 3,872 $ 828 $ 828 21.40%
June $ 5,700 $ 3,975 $ 1,725 $ 1,725 30.26% June $ 5,700 $ 4,369 $ 1,331 $ 1,331 30.48%
July $ 6,300 $ 4,525 $ 1,775 $ 1,775 28.17% July $ 6,300 $ 5,167 $ 1,133 $ 1,133 21.92%
August $ 7,200 $ 5,275 $ 1,925 $ 1,925 26.74% August $ 7,200 $ 5,847 $ 1,353 $ 1,353 23.14%
September $ 6,400 $ 6,113 $ 288 $ 288 4.49% September $ 6,400 $ 6,659 $ (259) $ 259 3.89%
October $ 4,600 $ 6,650 $(2,050) $ 2,050 44.57% October $ 4,600 $ 6,504 $(1,904) $ 1,904 29.27%
November $ 4,200 $ 6,575 $(2,375) $ 2,375 56.55% November $ 4,200 $ 5,361 $(1,161) $ 1,161 21.66%
December $ 3,900 $ 5,450 $(1,550) $ 1,550 39.74% December $ 3,900 $ 4,665 $ (765) $ 765 16.39%

Average MAPE = 30.55% Average MAPE = 20.48%

Saya menyarankan untuk menggunakan metode rata-rata 3 bulan, karena menunujukan rata-rate lebih tinggi yaitu 30.55%

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