The European Foundry Industry 2019 Annual Statistics and National Reports 1
The European Foundry Industry 2019 Annual Statistics and National Reports 1
Foundry Association
2019
Contents
Page
Preface 2
Total Survey 3
Tables
Graphs 104
1
Preface
Once again, the CAEF - The European Foundry Association - Commission for economics & statistics
has compiled a statistical annual entitled "The European Foundry Industry 2019" from national reports
and statistical material gathered from its member countries. The main tables were supplemented by
information from European foundry nations being non-members of CAEF as far as data has been
available.
The publication thus presents an authentic statistical picture of the European foundry industry. All the
same, data in some categories, particularly those regarding output values, have remained incomplete.
Despite those inadequacies the Annual Report published by the Commission for economics & statistics
remains the most comprehensive EU-wide survey of our industry.
The Commission wishes to express its gratitude to all those CAEF member association
representatives who helped in preparing these reports and figures.
H. Lickfett S. Steffen
2
TOTAL SURVEY
TOTAL SURVEY
The economy in the euro area continued to grow moderately during the year 2019. E.g. real GDP
increased by 0.1% in Q4 2019. All in all, GDP in the euro area increased by 0.9%. The euro area slowed
more than expected as a combination of factors, including weakening consumer and business
sentiment; delays associated with the introduction of new fuel emission standards for diesel-powered
vehicles in Germany and fiscal policy uncertainty. Growing concerns about a no-deal Brexit also likely
weighed on investment spending within the euro area. Private consumption grew at a pace of 1.3% in
2018. Monthly inflation rate in Eurozone was 0.31% in December 2019. That is 0.64 more than it was in
November 2019 and 0.36 more than in December 2018. At the same time, 2019 year to date inflation
rate is 1.33% and year over year inflation rate is 1.33%. The unemployment rate at the euro area level
declined from 7.8% in December 2018 to 7.4% in December 2019.
Forecast 2020/2021
(1) Source: Worldbank GDP 2019, (2) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2020
4
TOTAL SURVEY
Vehicle construction
2019 was a challenging year for the international automotive markets. The European passenger car
market grew just like the demand in Brazil, but in the US the sold number of light vehicles was down on
the previous year. China, Japan, and India showed weak development, just as the Russian market.
In Europe, a total of 15.8 million passenger cars were newly registered in 2019, around 1% more than
in the previous year. The markets in Germany and France expanded by 5% and 2%. Italy’s markets
stagnated. The United Kingdom and Spain recorded a fall of 2% and 5%. About two thirds of the
European markets ended the year with a positive result, one third had a negative outcome. The numbers
for passenger car sales in Europe were close to 1.3 million units at the end of the year, making it a rise
of 21%.
The light vehicle market in the US was down by 1%, ending the year with nearly 17.0 million sold
vehicles. Since 2014 it is the first time the US market had missed the 17-million mark. Passenger car
sales fell by 11%, while sales in the light truck segment rose by 3%, that accounts for 72% percent of
the market.
The Chinese passenger car market lost almost 10% in 2019. This means 21.0 million new vehicles after
a weak year 2018 what makes it the second contraction in recent decades. China’s weaker overall
economic growth is reflected disproportionately in the car market.
The Indian car market fell to a total of 3.0 million units, making it a 13% decrease to 2018. In December
demand was 1% lower than in 2018.
The Japanese market totaled a 4.3 million units sold in 2019 and therefore remained 2% below the
previous year’s result. December sales were 11% below the numbers for December 2018.
After two strong years, the Russian light vehicle market fell by 2% to nearly 1.8 million units. Although
the overall rise in numbers, in December 2019, a 2 % rise compared to the year before was recorded.
The Brazilian market grew strong. 2.7 million add 8% to the sales numbers of 2018. In December, the
increase even came to 12% and finishes the third year of growth in succession.
Mechanical engineering
According to estimates by VDMA economists, in 2019, sales of machinery will increase by a nominal
2% to almost 2.67 trillion euros. Still Asia remained the largest manufacturing region with 1.37 trillion
euros and an increase by 2%. The EU and Europe both reached growth rates of about 1% each.
Although Europe produced way less that Asia, they produced more than twice as much as the US.
However, the US industry increased its turnover by almost 7%.
Germany is the third-largest machinery producer since 2013. In 2019 the record figure of 2018 was
missed by 1%. It still accounted for around 11% of worldwide sales.
China again increased its sales by 2% on the previous year. Japan even scored an increase of 5%. Italy
can only record 1% growth in 2019. The five largest machine producers (China, USA, Germany, Japan,
Italy) together account for 72% of global machine sales.
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TOTAL SURVEY
Building industry
In 2019, the 19 Euroconstruct countries increased their volume by 36.5 billion euros to over 1.6 trillion.
This shows an increase by 2.3%. 2017 was the best year for the construction industry. But the dynamic
of growth slowed down. However, the growth rates were higher than the GDP of the considered
countries. The forecasts for 2020 and 2021 were negative but the corona pandemic exceeded the
forecasts already with the first two quarters. The home construction sector grew at least 9% in the years
of 2016 and 2017. But 2019 was a better year than expected with 1.9%. Especially non-home
construction and civil engineering contributed 0.9 and 0.5 % to the growth.
The forecasts before the corona pandemic struck the entire economy were already prognosing slowed
down growth. The pandemic exceeded the forecast of course. Outlook were estimating growth of 0.5%
(down from forecast of 4.5%) for 2020.
Civil engineering is a side factor in the construction, but especially in countries like Hungary and Ireland
the estimated growth ought to be between 10 and 16.6% for the years of 2019 to 2021. In general, the
numbers in civil engineering are better because of the improved public financial situation since 2011.
The massive need for modernisation in public infrastructure will most likely lead to a constant growth in
the sector of civil engineering.
The non-residential building construction sector expanded by 5.7% in the last three years. Reasons for
the good growth were large companies’ wins, reasonable economic development, and good finance
structures. A bigger growth was forecasted for the coming three years in countries like Ireland, Hungary,
Poland, and the Netherlands.
Steel industry
Global crude steel production reached 1,869 million tonnes in 2019, which makes is 3% higher than the
production in 2018. The European Union, Central and South America, Japan, and the NAFTA region
recorded a decrease in total production, the CIS region stagnated, and only China increased its
production volume, pushing the global production to a positive development.
Asia produced 1,343.8 Mt of crude steel in 2018, an increase of 5,7% compared to 2018. China still
produces more than half of the world’s crude steel and uses more than half of the world’s production as
well. The growth in volume was over 70 Mt, being 8.3% more than 2018. Russia overtook South Korea
as number five in total production, but both countries decreased in volume over the whole year. Of all
the bigger producers of crude steel, only China, India and the US increased their volume.
The EU produced 158.8 Mt of crude steel in 2019, a decrease of 5.5% compared to 2018. Germany
produced 39.7 Mt, a decrease of 6.3%. Italy came to a total of 23.2 Mt, a negative development of 5.3%
to the year before. France made 16th place with a production of 14.4 Mt, a decrease of 6.5%. Right
behind France is Spain, producing 13.6 Mt and losing 4.9 % in comparison to 2018.
Crude steel production in North America was 119.1 Mt in 2019, 0.5% lower than in 2017. The US
produced 87.8 Mt of crude steel, up by 1.4% on 2018.
The CIS countries produced 100.7 Mt, a decrease of 0.6 %. Russia produced 71.9 Mt of crude steel in
2018, down by 0.3 % on 2018. Ukraine produced 20.8 Mt of crude steel in 2019, a decrease of 1.4%
compared to 2018.
Annual crude steel production for South America was 41.8 Mt in 2019, a decrease of 7.3% on 2018.
Brazil produced 32.2 Mt in 2019, down by 9.0% compared to 2018.
The Middle East produced 44.2 Mt of crude steel in 2019, an increase of 16.3% on 2018. Iran produced
25.6 Mt in 2018, up 4.5% on 2018.
Turkey’s crude steel production for 2019 was 33.7 Mt, down by 9.6% on 2018.
6
TOTAL SURVEY
In 2019, non-ferrous metal foundries in the CAEF member states booked a production decrease of 2.4%
to roundabout 4.4 m. tons. (For Croatia, a production decrease of 3.0% compared to the average plus
was calculated because of partly missing data.) In the countries that dominate the production of non-
ferrous metal castings, namely Germany and Italy, the output went down for Germany by 2.6% and by
4.9% for Italy. Together, these two countries account for 48.2% of the total volume of non-ferrous metal
castings produced in the CAEF member states. In the reporting year of 2019 the following countries
booked positively growth rates: Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Turkey.
The number of employees in iron and steel foundries increased in Belgium, Portugal, and Spain. In
Norway and Turkey, the employment was stable. All other countries logged in a decreasing number of
employees.
In 2019 the non-ferrous metal sector was dominated by negative employment trends. A positive
development was logged in for Italy. In Belgium, the Czech Republic, Norway, Poland, and Turkey the
employment was stable.
In Hungary, Italy, Slovenia, Spain, and Turkey new foundries have started their business. In Germany,
Sweden, Switzerland, and UK foundries were closed.
The share of cast iron with lamellar graphite in the output total of iron and steel castings was 49.2%, a
slightly smaller share than in the four years before. Correspondingly, the share of ductile cast iron was
slightly higher (43.9%). The steel sector logged a share of 6.7%.
The production of castings made of non-ferrous metal alloys is still dominated by light metals. The share
was unbroken 87.7%. Furthermore, the share of copper alloys holds the level of round about 6.1%.
Therefore, not surprisingly, the share of components made of zinc alloys was nearly stable (5.4%).
From the data available it appears that the export quota of the iron and steel foundries decreased slightly
from 40% last year to 39.5 in 2019. Calculation base is the foreign trade report of nine member countries.
Germany is still the country that dominates the export trade in castings with a volume of more than 1.5
million tons (minus 7.0%). The second place in volume, the tenth year in a row, was logged for Turkey:
Turkey reported an export volume of almost 1.1 million tons (plus 6.1%). Spain logged in a volume of
0.75 million tons (stable) and is placed the third place the fifth year in a row. The fourth place is booked
for Italy (488,400 tons, minus 6.3%). Exports by France increased by 3.4% (448,000 tons).
If we consider only those CAEF member states with current figures for the previous year, the value of
the iron and steel castings produced decreased by 3.8%, in doing so the weight of castings fell by 6.0%.
From the data that is available on the production value of the non-ferrous metal sector a year-on-year
comparison is not possible. It appears that the weight of castings produced was 3% lower.
For all countries with missing data the data gaps were filled with the average growth rates of the available
data to get approximations.
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TOTAL SURVEY
Iron
At 5.7 million tons, the output of the CAEF member states was down by 7.5%. Missing data for Bulgaria
was calculated with the average growth rate of available data from the other nations. A growing
production was logged for Slovenia, Spain, and Turkey. The production was stable in Norway and UK.
All other countries had to deal with a negative growth rate for the year 2019. As ever, the data available
for the cast-iron sector is too sketchy to allow determining the overall value of production. The output of
components made of cast iron with lamellar graphite is largely destined for the motor vehicle and
mechanical engineering industries. For the motor vehicle industry, the highest absorption rates were
reported from Portugal (83.5%), Germany (69.3%) and Turkey (37.6%) respectively. For the mechanical
engineering in industry the highest shares in the output were posted for 2019 by Italy (47.8%), Turkey
(34.7%), and Finland (26.3%).
The number of persons employed in iron foundries (incl. ductile cast iron) increased in Portugal and
Spain and was stable in Poland and Turkey. In Finland, Italy, and Switzerland the employment
decreased.
The producers of ductile cast iron reported a decrease of output by 5.4% to 5.0 million tons. Missing
data for Bulgaria was calculated with the average growth rate of available data from the other nations.
France and Turkey logged an upturn in production. In Norway, Slovenia, and UK the production level
was stable. All other countries reported a decreasing production.
Cast iron with spheroidal graphite traditionally dominates the ductile cast iron sector with an unchanged
share of 99% during the last years. Correspondingly, malleable iron as a niche product holds a share of
a little bit more than 1%. In this context, it should be noted that malleable casting statistics have lost
some of their meaning because in some states it is impossible to break down the figures for the ductile
cast-iron sector. Therefore, data for malleable castings are not collected any more since 2016. Nodular
iron components are mainly produced in Germany, Turkey, France, Spain, and Italy.
As ever, components for the motor vehicle and mechanical engineering industries predominate in the
production of ductile castings, with the building industry following in third place among the customer
industries. If analysing the shares of motor vehicle castings in those countries for which data are
available, one sees that the highest shares are reported from Portugal at 87.7%, Turkey at 44.4%, and
Germany at 38.7%. The mechanical engineering industry holds the highest shares in output in Finland
(67.0%), Italy at 57.5%, and Germany at 32.7%. Unfortunately, it is impossible to present the share of
the building industry.
Steel
In the year 2019 the output of steel castings decreased by 0.7% to 780,800 tons. Missing data for
Bulgaria was calculated with the average growth rate of available data from the other nations. Turkey,
the leading producer since 2018, logged a stable production volume compared to the year before. For
Germany, second in line, the production decreased by 3.4%. For Belgium, the Czech Republic, France,
Hungary, and Portugal a decreased production was reported as well. Production in Austria, Poland, and
UK remained stable. Finland, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland increased their steel production.
In those member countries for which data for a year-on-year comparison was available, the value of the
output of steel casting components increased by 8.8%.
8
TOTAL SURVEY
The number of persons employed in steel foundries was stable in Poland and Turkey. In Italy and Spain,
the number of employees increased, whereas the number of persons employed decreased in Finland,
Portugal, and Switzerland.
The output of non-ferrous metal casting components in the CAEF member countries decreased by 2.4%
to 4.4 million tons. Missing data for Croatia was calculated with the average growth rate of available
data from the other nations. As before, the non-ferrous metal sector is dominated by Germany, Italy,
Turkey, France, and Poland. The share of the first three countries slightly increased from 60.7% to
61.4% in 2019. In Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Turkey an increasing production volume was logged.
Norway, Portugal, and UK reported a stable production volume. All other countries had registered
negative growth rates.
Traditionally, the production of non-ferrous metal castings is dominated by light metals. The motor
vehicle industry is the foremost customer. In the year 2019 the output of light metal castings (aluminium
and magnesium) decreased by 2.2% compared to 2018, reaching nearly 3.9 million tons. Missing data
for Bulgaria and Croatia were calculated with the average growth rate of available data from the other
nations. Together, Germany and Italy, the two major producers, account for 47.8% of the light-metal
castings. The production for these leading countries went down by 2.6% for Germany and by 5.4% for
Italy. Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Turkey reported a positive development. Norway, Sweden, and UK
logged an unchanged production volume. Among the light metal alloys, magnesium plays a subordinate
role in terms of output weight. Germany is the major producer with 15,500 tons followed by Italy (7,100
tons) and the United Kingdom (2,600 tons). Austria (no data available) and Sweden are additional
important players.
The second most important material category in the non-ferrous metal sector is that of copper and its
alloys. For countries with registered production for 2019 the level decreased by 3.1%. The reported
volume in 2019 reached a level of almost 265,000 tons. Because of the missing data of some countries
it is difficult to estimate the real market volume. For Finland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Switzerland
a growth rate for production was logged. UK reported a stable production volume. All other countries
achieved a production decrease.
The output of zinc castings fell by 1.2% with a volume of nearly 243,800 tons. Missing data for Bulgaria,
Croatia, Finland, and Sweden were calculated with the average growth rate of available data from the
other nations. Italy, Germany, and Turkey are the major producers, together holding a share of 69.9%
in output total. A stable production was logged for Poland and UK. An increase in production was
reported for Italy, Portugal, and Slovenia. All other countries reported decreasing production volume in
2019.
The statistical data available for the category of 'other non-ferrous metal alloys' are fragmentary. In
addition, some countries include copper and zinc in this category, because there is no facility for
segregating these. Therefore, it is impossible to analyse this category more extensively.
Source:
IFW Kiel, ifo Munich, Worldbank, IMF, ACEA, VDA, VDMA, gtai, Euroconstruct, Worldsteel, CAEF
9
REPORTS OF THE COUNTRIES
A U S T R I A
In our present situation we cannot resort to the figures of the WIFO business survey we normally use,
because they date in part from the time before crisis measures were taken. There are few sentiment
indicators for the manufacturing industry. This is why the Association of Metal Technology Industries
has chosen a different approach surveying companies directly.
The heterogeneous impact on the branch as a whole is partly due to the sectoral distribution. Automotive
suppliers and foundries are extremely affected with a production of just under one third of the previous
volume. Of course, the results of the foundry industry should be interpreted with caution, as we are
speaking of a small number of companies. Still the trend is correct and the response rate among
foundries was very high. About 50% of the companies see themselves in a range between 60% and
99% with a skewed distribution towards the higher level. According to available data, plant engineering
fares best with an utilization of capacities of 70%; one in 5 companies works at 100% or above of the
normal level. In the metal technology industry acc. to extrapolations 90 companies (7.4%) have closed
their production temporarily. One in twelve companies works to capacity (extrapolation from 100
companies). As feared by many, next month will be even harder on our companies. Even if half of them
expect the situation to stay stable, only one in seven companies expects an improvement. It is interesting
that the construction related sector (27% expect an improvement) and automotive suppliers (33%, but
parting from a very low level) are more optimistic. The vast majority of plant engineering enterprises do
not expect any change of the situation during the next 4 weeks. Unlike 2008/09, when during the financial
crisis approx. 16% of the companies of the metal technology industry applied for short-time work, their
share today amounts to more than 80%. This is due to the suddenness of the crisis and the simplified
conditions for short-time work. 59% of the companies have already submitted their application, more
than 60% of them are still waiting for the approval. Applications are evenly distributed among the
different sectors; the highest percentage was submitted by automotive suppliers with more than 90%.
There are no branches with a significantly lower percentage; mechanical engineering has the lowest
share (just under 80%). The extent of short-time work in the companies has reached a a record level:
43% respond that they have applied for short-time work for more than 90% of their employees. More
than 70% submitted an application for 70-100% of their staff. This means that not only most of the
enterprises have taken to the short-time model, but they also use it for a large share of their workers.
This survey did not enquire for the number of reduced working hours in order to avoid a overload.
However, according to available agreements, reductions are mostly of 90%. The decline in sales
reported by almost 90% of the companies was to be expected but it is intriguing that more than half of
the enterprises are facing production difficulties because of interrupted supply chains. At the beginning,
when only China was affected, this was an issue for a minority only, but in the meantime this has come
to affect more companies. This is a problem which in this form had been inexistent during the last years.
Very dangerous are also the liquidity shortages, reported by one third of the manufacturers. It is
therefore all the more important to apply for interim aid and to be able to count on efficient government
assistance and support by the banking sector. Currently, "only" 27% of the companies lay of their staff.
Currently, with exception of short-time work arrangements (applied for by more than 80% of our
companies), enterprises resort mainly to supports related to their liquidity, such as tax deferrals (58%)
and loan guarantees (40%). In this context it is essential to see that also the industrial sector, almost as
a whole, depends on state support. If we consider that 80% of our members are on short-time work,
there remain almost no manufacturers that can do without supporting measures. Of course, the question
is put in rather simplified terms and at present it is impossible or at least very difficult to offer an impact
assessment. However, the replies to this question confirm what was already expected due to the
massive decline in production. There is a clear trend to perceive the current crisis as more severe than
the financial crisis. There still remains a relatively large share of respondents (roughly one third) who
have no definite answer so far. It is undeniable that the suddenness of the crash is far worse than the
situation in 2008/09. On the other hand, the Covid-19 crisis was triggered by an external shock and so
far has not turned into a structural crisis. Of course, there is a risk that second-round effects could lead
to a structural crisis. But there is hope that the upswing might be as sudden as the downturn. In plant
engineering almost 60% of the companies believe that the situation is worse than in 2008/09, whereas
in mechanical engineering their share is only 36%. More than one fourth of the machine manufacturers
thinks that the financial crisis was worse; this branch has the least dramatic view of the current Covid-
11
A U S T R I A
19 crisis as compared to 2008/09. For a narrow majority of automotive suppliers the current situation is
worse than 2008/09. It is not totally clear whether the crisis-related data are contained in full in the PMI
of Bank Austria. However, the upward trend registered in February confirms our assumption that the
industry was just ready to overcome recession and that the COVID-19 outbreak in China still had no
major impact. Production expectations collapsed totally, to an index of 30. If a new outbreak of the virus
can be avoided and business is reactivated gradually, Bank Austria expects a recovery in the second
half of the year and a total production decline of "only" 7%.
Iron castings registered in 2019 a total production volume of 158,514 tons (a decline of 3.4%). Sales
figures rose by 1.1% to about 432 million €.
The production volume of ductile cast iron amounted to 104,730 tons, i.e. a decline of 4.6 % over the
volume of 2018.
Steel castings increased to 11,444 tons, almost exactly the level of 2018.
Production of grey castings fell by 1.5% compared to 2018 and reached a volume of 42,340 tons.
Employment
In 2019 the branch provided employment to a total of 6.933 persons (employees and workers), i.e. a
decline of 4.8% over 2018.
The number of industrial apprentices trained in professions related to our branch (foundry technology
and metal foundrymen) declined with regard to 2018.
Incoming orders
All in all, our companies were much affected by the current economic situation in 2019.
Investment plans
Investment activities remain on a high level.
Personnel cost
Minimum wage rises according to the collective wage agreement amount in the different employment
groups to 2.6 % - 2.8 %.
However, prices of energy, electricity and gas registered a sudden increase in Austria.
Cost development
As there were no inquiries in this context, it was decided in 2019 to discontinue this evaluation.
Outlook 2020
It is difficult to foresee the trend for 2020, which was also treated in the first paragraph. 2020/21 will be
challenging years for the branch and basically everything depends on the behaviour of the automotive
industry. It will take time until the branch will reach again the previous level and a stable outlook.
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B E L G I U M
1. Macroeconomic developments
2019
Growth of GDP reached 1,4%.
Belgium’s exports has been suffering from the deteriorating business cycle across the world. Belgian
export volume growth of goods and services, which had already slowed markedly in 2018, fell further in
2019, to 0,9%.
Strong economic activity, low interest rates and improved internal financing capacity (profitability)
supported business investment. They rose by 3%.
The private consumption growth slowed to 1,1%, the weakest figure in the last five years. Uncertain
economic conditions may have prompted some caution on the part of households, while their purchasing
power grew by 2,5%.
Higher household purchasing power, coupled with continued low mortgage rates, were the main factor
boosting households’ housing investment by 5,9%.
2020
Economic growth in Belgium is set to be severely hit by the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020.
The lockdown measures in place since mid-March are expected to decrease private consumption
significantly It is projected to fall by almost 7%. However, thanks to, among other factors, the system of
temporary unemployment, the purchasing power of household is expected remain unchanged compared
to 2019.
Exports growth is projected to largely mirror the trend in export market growth. After dropping markedly
in the second quarter of this year, they are expected to gradually pick up thereafter. For the whole year,
exports are forecasted to drop by 11,9%.
Falling demand, strong supply chain disruptions and high uncertainty are expected to lead to a decrease
of over 15% in business investment.
Inflation
Inflation is forecast to fall from 1,2% in 2019 to 0,3% in 2020, mainly driven by lower energy prices.
Labour market
Despite widespread recourse to the short-term unemployment scheme to avoid job losses during the
lockdown period, the unemployment rate is set to rise from 5,4% in 2019 to 7% in 2020.
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B E L G I U M
Mechanical
4,0 -1,2 0,2 -0,2 3,0 2,5 1,2 -0,5
engineering
Metal product -2,2 -0,9 1,0 -1,9 2,3 4 2.3 1,5
Automobile -5,9 -7,1 0,8 -10 -0,5 -0,5 -6 6
Last year, the activity in mechanical engineering decreased by 0,5% with very irregular figures from one
quarter to the other. The demand for the product of the sector (mostly investment goods for enterprises)
suffered from the degradation of the general economic climate.
The growth in the metal product industry remained positive, but it was the lowest of the last five years.
The sector suffered from a slowdown in demand from industrial sectors but remained supported by the
high level of activity in the construction sector.
In automobile, sub-contractors for car makers on international markets suffered from a decrease of
activity of about 15% while the activity of producers of commercial vehicles decreased by 4%. This has
been more than compensated by the increase in production of the new models in our car assembly
plants and their subcontractors.
Iron casting
In iron casting, the biggest sub-sector of the Belgian foundry industry, the production decreased by 23%
to 53.809 tons. The year on year evolution was negative during all four quarters of the year.
Steel casting
At 6.605 tons, steel casting production declined by 11,4% compared with 2018. The fall was limited in
the first quarter but turned strongly negative during the 2nd and 3rd period. The last quarter of the year
was also unfavourable, but with a less pronounced decrease.
Non-ferrous casting
With 1.719 tons in 2019, the production in the non-ferrous casting was 21,5% below its level of 2018.
Here as well, the evolution was negative during the 4 quarters of the year.
4. Cost development
4.1 Energy
Electricity: According to Eurostat statistics, Belgian electricity market prices for industrial users
decreased in 2019 (before VAT). During the 2nd half of the year, prices (before taxes) for consumers
between 2000 and 20000 Mwh were 3,7% higher than during the second half of 2018. For consumers
14
B E L G I U M
between 20000 and 70000 MWH, the (before VAT) price increase reached 3,6%. Prices before VAT
remain in Belgium 8,4% lower than in the EU and 7,8% lower than in the euro area.
Gas: Belgian market price for industrial consumer of natural gas also decreased in 2019. The decrease
of 9,6% in the 2nd semester compared with the 2nd semester 2018 was more marked than in EU -2,8%)
and the euro area (+3,9%). The difference in prices remains high : -25,1% compared with the EU and -
26,0% compared with the euro area.
4.2 Wagecost
Average wage in 2019 was 2,4% higher than in 2018. This growth is due to the automatic indexation in
July 2018 of +1,44% and in July 2019 of +1,95%. There was also an increase outside indexation of
1,10% in July 2019.
For 2020, the automatic indexation was 1,01% in July. This should result in an average increase of
labour cost of about 2,1% compared with 2019.
This is the case for the assessment of the order book: in june 2020, all the foundries regarded their
orders as being “lower than normal for the period of the year”. In january and February, they were only
about 25% to assess their order as too low.
Furthermore, about 2/3 of the foundries expect a further decrease of the demand for their product in the
3 coming months. This is another sign that the business climate of the sector is deeply depressed and
that no improvement is to be expected in the short term.
The assessment of capacity utilization has been deteriorating during the last quarters. It is now at about
69,7%, below its long term average (75%).
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15
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
Foundry production
Foundry production in 2019 was like "on the swing." The decline in production at the end of 2018
continued in early 2019. In the spring months the production was fulfilled but during the summer there
was a recurrent decline. Autumn did not bring the volumes of orders that foundries would need. Although
the production was catching up at the end of the year, the economic result for a number of companies
was in the red. Total production was therefore lower in 2019 than in the previous year. The beginning
of 2020 was very "cold" and the expectations of companies did not materialize. In March, the COVID-
19 pandemic began, completely paralyzing the foundry industry.
Values given in the table result from investigations of the Czech Bureau of Statistics and investigations
made by the Association of Foundries of the Czech Republic.
After a healthy 5% year-on-year growth in production in the period 2012 to mid-2018, 2019 continued
to fall sharply in orders starting at the end of 2018. Despite the fulfilment of production capacities in
spring and autumn, comparable production volumes did not accumulate cumulatively as in the previous
year. There was no major revival during the year in which many foundries had hoped. The outlook for
orders for ferrous castings was no longer than one and a half months. Existing customers reduced
volumes, new projects were difficult to find with an uncertain future. In total, approximately 385,000 tons
of castings were produced in the Czech Republic. Production volumes are therefore lower than in the
previous year. The foundries optimised production in proportion to orders. Despite the lack of orders
there was an aim to maintain a key skilled workforce. Labour productivity is determined by the pieces of
orders. For ferrous castings, where seriality is low, it is difficult to find ways to streamline and saves.
Foundries are looking for optimization in information technology and software control of individual items.
Another way to profitability of foundries is the sale of machined castings or whole components. However,
the cost of investment and service personnel is high, and not everyone can afford it.
The total production of Fe castings in 2019 was about 269 thousand tons of castings. The production of
cast iron, both GJL and GJS, is comparable to 2010. The year-on-year decrease of production was 11
%. This decline also reflected the stagnant engineering. Composition of orders does not allow to
introduce automation in bulk. Low seriality continues to go against productivity. Outputs are influenced
by the composition of workers, the profit is dissolved in wages, investments are hardly received.
Foundries have stabilized the order volumes according to the existing composition of workers. Small
investments are made to help productivity increase, time and energy savings. The advantage have
foundries with higher seriality of orders where investments in special purpose equipment have a faster
return. The current orders of both GJL and GJS castings are very strongly affected by the COVID crisis,
16
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
which has manifested itself in its entirety. Due to the low number od orders the delivery dates are kept.
Limited mobility has stopped the possibility of finding new projects.
After a stable period up to 2016, the volumes of steel casting production decreased slowly. Total
production in 2019 was 52 thousand tons, which is the least in the history of the Czech Republic. Interest
in "carbon steel" which is replaced by GJS continues to decline. The remaining production of steel
castings is based on alloyed and special steels. The low productivity of steel plants is given by the low
seriality of orders. High input prices, metallurgical complexity and emphasis on the quality of alloyed
steels drive the prices of these castings up. Not everyone is able to accept prices and is looking for
adequate substitutions. For small pieces one of the ways is 3D printing of metals. This trend will continue
in the coming years. The production of steel castings is specific only to a certain segment of the market
that is willing to accept the price.
In case of non-ferrous metal castings, the growth of die-cast castings from Al alloys stopped. The total
production in 2019 was about 96 thousand tons. The main driver of orders is the automotive industry.
Production volumes increased slightly at purpose-built foundries (Škoda auto, Ronal). Commercial
foundries have adapted to the agreed volumes from the end of 2018, in the second half of 2019 there
was a decrease in orders. Cumulatively the production volumes are comparable to 2015. High
productivity relies on modern technologies with the mass use of robots. It's the only way to succeed in
the pressure of competition on casting prices.
The production of copper alloy castings has not seen any changes and it continues to reach about 20
thousand tons. Power engineering continues to be the main customer. The current order volumes
correspond to the production possibilities of foundries. Labour productivity is low and relies on the skill
of qualified personnel.
The total production of the Czech foundry industry in 2019 was lower compared to 2018. The total
production of 384,500 tons of castings means a decrease of about 11 % compared to the previous year.
The expected recovery did not occur, rather the opposite. At the end of the year, there was a further
decline in the outlook for new orders and the production began to decline even in early 2020. By the
end of the year, the entire foundry industry had seen this approximately 8% decrease. In 2018/2019
there was a 15% increase in workers' wages. This significant increase in the cost of companies has
weakened their competitiveness. Despite the wage increase it is not possible to find new young
employees and the age average of foundry employees continues to grow. The year 2020 was very
strongly influenced by the COVID-19 crisis, which totally paralyzed our foundry industry. This crisis has
put not only our foundries in an unenviable position. This situation most affected suppliers in the
automotive industry, i.e. pressure foundries of Al alloys. Companies are waiting for the emergency to be
lifted and are calling for the lifting of restrictions and the opening of business premises as soon as
possible. The year 2020 will be difficult for many foundries, we will see what steps the Government of
the Czech Republic will take to save the Czech industry, which historically includes foundry industry too.
**********
17
F I N L A N D
1. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND
The turnover of technology industry companies in Finland grew by 6 per cent in 2019 from 2018.
Turnover was up in all main sectors except metals industry. In 2019, the turnover in Finland amounted
to EUR 83 billion. The effects of global economic uncertainty and weakening demand remain apparent
in Finnish technology industries. The rise in the value of technology industry companies’ new orders in
the fourth quarter is almost exclusively attributable to very large ship orders. Without these, the value of
new orders would have remained more or less unchanged from the previous quarter. The number of
requests for tender received by technology industry companies dropped further. The companies that
took part in the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ survey of order books reported that the
monetary value of new orders between October and December was 15 per cent higher than in the
preceding quarter and 17 per cent higher than in the corresponding period in 2018. At the end of
December, the value of order books was slightly higher than at the end of September and 9 per cent
higher than in December 2018. It is important to note that shipyards’ share of the total value of books is
exceptionally large. The strengthening of the ship building industry drives broad-based growth in many
sectors. The number of personnel employed by technology industry companies in Finland was up slightly
more than 3 per cent from the 2018 average. The average number of personnel employed was 319,000,
approximately 10,000 more than in 2018. Technology industry companies’ recruitments also took a
downward turn towards the end of the year. They recruited a total of 40,500 new employees in 2019. In
2018, total recruitments came to 50,000.
The turnover of mechanical engineering companies (machinery, metal products and vehicles) in Finland
increased by approximately 3 per cent in 2019 from 2018. In 2019, their turnover in Finland amounted
to EUR 32.8 billion. The value of new orders in mechanical engineering was up 21 percent from the
previous quarter in the October-December period. Year-on-year, the value of new orders increased by
7 per cent in the last quarter. The increase in the value of new orders towards the end of 2019 is almost
exclusively attributable to very large ship orders. Without these, the value of order books would have
dropped notably from the previous quarter. Differences between individual companies have widened
notably also in this sector. At the end of December, the value of order books remained at the same level
as at the end of September and 5 per cent higher than in December 2018. Shipyards’ share of the total
value of order books is exceptionally large. The strengthening of the ship building industry drives broad-
based growth in many sectors.
The turnover of metals industry companies (steel products, non-ferrous metals, castings and metallic
minerals) in Finland decreased by approximately 5 per cent in 2019 from 2018. In 2019, their turnover
in Finland amounted to EUR 10.6 billion. The total production of steel products, non-ferrous metals,
castings and metallic minerals in Finland in the January-November period decreased by as much as
10 per cent year-on-year.
In the year 2019 the total production of castings in Finland decreased about 10 % in 2019 from 2018.
The production of iron and steel castings was 57.843 tons which is 10 % less compared to year 2018.
18
F I N L A N D
Iron and nodular iron casting production decreased about 13 %, but steel casting production increased
about 3 %. Metal castings production was 5.308 tons, which is about 4 % less than the previous year.
The value of the casting production of Finnish foundries was 229 m€, which is 14 % less compared to
year 2018. The foundry industry employed 1,645 people, 131 less than in 2018.
2018 2019 %
2018 2019 %
2018 2019 %
2018 2019 %
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19
F R A N C E
Macroeconomic developments
% in 2018 % in 2019 % in 2020
(expected)
GDP +1.6 +1.3 -7.5
Inflation +1.9 +1.1 +0.1
Unemployment rate .8.8 8.1 10.2
Industrial production +1 +0.3 -10
The growth of the French economy grew by + 1.3% in 2019. At the same time, GDP increased by
+ 0.6% for Germany and + 1.2% for the Euro zone. The increase is limited to + 0.2% for the Italian
economy.
The evolution of the global context, in particular the slowdown in the German economy combined with
trade tensions between the major partner countries has weighed on the activity of French industry. The
increase in industrial production is limited to + 0.3%. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% at the end of
2019 against + 8.8% at the end of 2018.
The Coronavirus health crisis hit the French economy hard while the global economy was already
slowing at the end of 2019. French GDP contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2020. The cessation
of activity linked to the two months of lockdown resulted in a significant loss of activity for businesses.
The hypothesis adopted by the forecasting institutes currently corresponds to a fall in GDP between
-7% and - 8% in France in 2020.
In this macroeconomic context, the unemployment rate is rising again and industrial production is in free
fall.
The slowdown in the French and European, and even global, economy, as well as the weakening of
demand from the main customer markets in France weighed on the activity trend of the foundry
industries. Automobile production fell significantly in 2019, this sector being the main outlet for the
French foundry (about 41% of the total outlet in 2019). Building and roads is the second client sector for
the foundry, the share of this sector having increased compared to the previous year. Construction has
a good activity in 2019 according to the FFB (around 29% of the market). As for French mechanics, this
market representing 23% of the total outlet: this sector recorded an increase of + 1.7% in turnover in
2019. The weakness of the German market has greatly limited the increase in total exports. This
slowdown, recorded both in France and internationally, has resulted in a decline in activity for the foundry
industries. The monthly survey carried out with a representative panel of the foundry industries showed
that the fall in production and turnover was regular throughout 2019. This decrease affects both the
foundry of ferrous metals and the foundry of non-ferrous metals.
In total, ferrous and non-ferrous metal foundries produced 1.696 million tonnes in 2019 compared to
1.781 million tonnes in 2018.
The total production value of the foundry industries is estimated to reach 5.141 billion euros in 2019.
20
F R A N C E
Evolution of employment
The workforce in the French foundry industry fell slightly in line with production trends, down -1% from
2018.
The number of employees is estimated at 29,724 people at the end of December 2019.
The number of companies in the foundry sector remained at 380 in 2019 (<10 people included).
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21
G E R M A N Y
Macroeconomic developments
The economic situation in Germany was characterised by slight economic growth in 2019.
According to first calculations of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the price-adjusted gross
domestic product (GDP) was 0.6% higher in 2019 than in the previous year. The German economy thus
has grown for the tenth year in a row. This has been the longest period of growth in united Germany.
However, growth lost momentum in 2019. In the previous two years, the price-adjusted GDP grew much
more strongly (by 2.5% in 2017 and by 1.5% in 2018). Compared with the average of the last ten years
(+1.3%), the German economic growth in 2019 was lower.
Growth in 2019 was mainly supported by consumption expenditure. Household final consumption
expenditure rose by a price-adjusted 1.6% on the previous year, government final consumption
expenditure by 2.5%. This means that the increase in household and government final consumption
expenditure was larger than in the previous two years (household final consumption expenditure +1.3%
year on year both in 2017 and in 2018; government final consumption expenditure +2.4% in 2017 and
+1.4% in 2018, year on year).
Gross fixed capital formation increased substantially, too. Gross fixed capital formation in construction
was up a price-adjusted 3.8% on a year earlier. Particularly strong increases were recorded for civil
engineering and housing construction. Gross fixed capital formation in other fixed assets (+2.7%), which
include research and development, was also much higher than a year earlier. Gross fixed capital
formation in machinery and equipment, however, increased less strongly (+0.4%). Total price-adjusted
gross capital formation, which covers gross fixed capital formation and changes in inventories (including
acquisitions less disposals of valuables), fell by 1.7% in 2019 year on year. Reasons for the marked
reduction of inventories are low industrial output and higher exports.
German exports continued to increase on an annual average in 2019, though at a slower pace than in
the previous years. In price-adjusted terms, German exports of goods and services were up 0.9% on
2018. The increase in price-adjusted imports (+1.9%) was larger.
On the production side of the GDP, there were two different economic trends in 2019. On the one hand,
the service sector and the construction industry recorded mainly high growth rates. On the other hand,
industry (not including construction) saw an economic slump. Consequently, total price-adjusted gross
value added rose by just 0.5% in 2019 on the previous year.
The highest growth rate was recorded by the construction industry (+4.0%). There were above-average
increases also in the service sector, that is, in information and communication and in financial and
insurance activities (+2.9% each). Sharp drops were however recorded in many parts of industry. The
output in industry (not including construction), which accounts for just over a quarter of the total
economy, was down by 3.6%. Especially the low output in the automotive industry contributed to the
decrease.
The economic performance in Germany on an annual average in 2019 was achieved for the first time
by more than 45 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. According
to first calculations, 45.3 million people were in employment, that is roughly 400,000 more than in 2018.
This 0.9% increase was mainly due to a rise in employment subject to social insurance. Higher labour
force participation and the immigration of foreign workers more than offset age-related demographic
effects and emigration from Germany, as had been the case in the preceding years.
According to provisional calculations, general government budgets achieved a surplus in 2019 for the
eighth time in a row. It amounted to 49.8 billion euros, which was not quite as much as the record surplus
of 62.4 billion euros in 2018. Central government accounted for the largest share of the surplus (19.2
billion euros), followed by state government (13.3 billion euros), social security funds (10.7 billion euros)
and local government (6.6 billion euros). Measured as a percentage of nominal GDP, this was a 1.5%
surplus ratio of general government for 2019.
22
G E R M A N Y
Short term outlook (Results of the July 2020 Ifo Business Survey):
Sentiment among German companies has improved further. The ifo Business Climate Index rose from
86.3 points (seasonally adjusted) in June to 90.5 points in July. This is the third rise in a row. Companies
were notably more satisfied with their current business situation. They are also carefully optimistic about
the coming months. The German economy is recovering step by step.
In manufacturing, the business climate once again improved considerably. Industrial companies’
assessment of their current situation is no longer quite as poor as in previous months. Companies also
expect business to grow again in the coming months. Capacity utilization increased from 70.4% to
74.9%, but it is still far below its long-term average of 83.5%.
In the service sector, the Business Climate Index rose strongly and is now in positive territory. Service
providers were distinctly more satisfied with their current situation. Their expectations for the coming
months also saw a significant improvement.
The upswing continued in trade, too. Companies adjusted their assessments of the current situation and
their expectations for the coming months markedly upward. Business improved, especially in retail.
In construction, the business climate continued to improve. Construction companies were more satisfied
with their current situation. Their expectations were also less pessimistic.
In 2019 the German passenger car market grew by 5 percent to a total of 3.6 million new registrations.
The last time the market recorded a greater annual volume was in 2009 (3.8 million cars).
Production and exports fell owing to the weaker demand around the world. The German passenger car
manufacturers built almost 4.7 million passenger cars, which is a decrease of 9%. The OEMs exported
nearly 3.5 million passenger cars to customers all over the world during the entire last year.
The OEMs exported 213,400 cars from Germany in December (-14%). During the entire last year nearly
3.5 million passenger cars (-13%) were supplied to customers all over the world. Hence, 74.6% of all
passenger cars built in Germany were exported. Accumulated foreign orders over the year lost nearly
2%.
New registrations of commercial vehicles increased by 6% to 409,800 units in 2019, thus setting a new
record. Sales of light commercial vehicles up to 6 tons rose by 7% in 2019 to reach 311,900 units – also
a new record. The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) expects a decrease of 3% for
2020. Therefore, in 2019 the volume of the segment will shrink, which is due to the special circumstances
of COVID-19. The market for commercial vehicles over 6 tons exceeded the 2018 figure. A total of
91,420 heavy trucks were newly registered (+3%). But in 2020 the growth is expected to decrease by
12%.
The demand for buses in 2019 showed a decrease over the previous year. In total, 6,440 buses were
newly registered (-4%). In 2019, sales of trailers increased by 4%and 318,000 trailers were newly
registered. Nevertheless, within this group demand for semi-trailers shrank and decreased by 6% to
38,300 units.
In 2019, the German mechanical engineering industry was unable to match the previous two years of
growth. Political upheavals, uncertain investors, and the far-reaching structural change in the automotive
industry as an important customer sector did not leave Germany's most employment-intensive key
industry unaffected. Nevertheless, the number of employees reached a new record level - an important
prerequisite for the ability of companies to act and innovate in times of technological change. The
production of machinery and equipment in Germany in 2019 was 2.8% below the previous year’s level
in real terms. While order backlogs and high capacity utilisation had a supportive effect in the first
quarter, this effect faded over the course of the year and the rates of change turned negative. In the
fourth quarter, the decline finally amounted to 6%. The production value last year was thus estimated at
224 billion euros.
23
G E R M A N Y
In 2019, the German mechanical engineering industry exported goods worth a total of 180 billion euros.
Not price-adjusted, machinery exports in 2019 thus barely stagnated, while price-adjusted they were
1.5% below the previous year’s figure. Machinery exports to EU countries in 2019 remained at the
previous year’s level (85.9 billion euros). With a 47.8% share of German machinery exports, the EU
single market remains the flagship of German machinery exports. The USA expanded its position as the
most important single market (up 4.3% to 20.1 billion euros), while German machinery exports to China,
the number two, shrank by 1.1% to 18.8 billion euros.
In 2019, the output of crude steel in Germany was registered with a volume of 34.9 million tons, 12.0%
lower than in 2018. The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts that the worldwide steel demand
will contract by 6.4%, dropping to 1,654 million tons due to the COVID-19 crisis. In 2021 steel demand
is expected to recover to 1,717 million tons, an increase of 3.8% over 2020. For the EU in 2020, the
World Steel Association predicts a minus of 15.8% (133.1 million tons).
In 2019, the total construction output in the Euroconstruct (EC-19) area grew by 2.7% compared to
2018. New construction (including new residential-, non-residential- and new civil engineering buildings)
has been driving the market for several years, and increased by 3.9% last year, while renovations have
been growing steady around 2%.
In 2019, Germany´s iron and steel foundries received orders for around 3.4 million tons of castings.
Compared to 2018, this marks a decrease of 16.7%. Orders from the biggest customer industry, motor
vehicle engineering, were 12.0% lower than the year before (1.99 million tons). At 750,000 tons, the
volume of orders from the mechanical-engineering industry went down by 30.0% compared to the
previous year. Circa 0.7 million tons of parts for miscellaneous applications were ordered, a level that is
12.2% lower than in the preceding year.
Germany´s foundries focused on non-ferrous components received an order volume of 1.15 million tons.
The demand went down by 6.0% compared to 2018. With approximately 79% of incoming orders the
vehicle industry is dominating the non-ferrous sector. The nominal demand dropped by 3.5%
(913,000 tons). The foundries related to mechanical engineering received orders with a volume of
8.200 tons (-15.0%). Nearly 228,000 tons of miscellaneous parts were ordered, which is a decrease of
14.8%.
We should bear in mind, that there is a lack of definition between engineering and miscellaneous
applications, e.g. electrical engineering. This applies for all casted materials.
In 2019, the weight of castings produced by Germany´s iron and steel foundries amounted to 3.8 million
tons. Compared to 2018 this corresponds to a 10.6% decrease. By looking at the two major customer
industries, casting production for the motor vehicle industry declined by 10.5% to 2.1 million tons, while
production for the mechanical engineering sector fell by 15.5% to 0.930 million tons. The output of
castings for miscellaneous functions (including rolls, moulds and castings for buildings as well as pipes
and fittings) reached a volume of 785,000 tons, 4.5% less than the previous year.
Non-ferrous foundries registered a production decrease of 2.6%, correlating with a volume of 1.15 million
tons of castings. While more than 80% were produced for the vehicle industry (919,400 tons), this output
dropped by 2.3%. The casting of non-ferrous components for all other customer industries fell by 3.9%
and therefore had a volume of almost 226,600 tons.
In 2019, 34.2% of the total production volume was exported directly. All in all, 1.69 million tons were
sold to costumers abroad, representing a 7.0% decrease.
By the end of 2019, orders in stock equaled a weight of more than 1.43 million tons of ferrous castings,
14.1% lower than at the end of 2018. The non-ferrous back orders had a volume of approximately
240,300 tons (-15.2%).
24
G E R M A N Y
Capacity utilisation in the iron (grey and nodular) foundry industry amounted to 84.6% in 2019. In
comparison to 2018, this means a decrease of 6.2%. Steel foundries have reported a capacity utilisation
of 81.0%, 0.9% less than in 2018. Capacity utilisation in the non-ferrous foundry industry is calculated
as 79.9% in 2019 (minus 7.8%). Capacity utilisation in ferrous-, steel and non-ferrous foundries cannot
be compared.
As of December 2019, Germany´s foundries (ferrous and non-ferrous) employed circa 75,200 persons,
4.6% less than at the end of 2018. This figure corresponds with 382 foundries (survey cut-off at <50
employees per company).
At the end of 2019, 562 foundries (ferrous and non-ferrous, no cut-off) were operating in Germany.
Main characteristic of several raw materials and energy sources is that both, supply and demand, are
highly price inelastic. In other words, neither available supply nor demand depends on the given price,
since production is based only on merits of what is needed. This becomes particularly pronounced in
the case of scrap, one of our industry’s most crucial resources.
No one “produces” scrap. Scrap incurs rather as “unavoidable” remnant of other industrial activities. The
metalworking businesses even strive, independent of the price, to minimize scrap accrual.
On the other side stands the demand, having virtually no substitution opportunities. If 25 tons are needed
to fulfill an order in time, they will be purchased “no matter the costs”.
To balance out supply and demand under the aforementioned circumstances, high price fluctuations
are the consequence. Already smallest diversions in offered supply or demanded quantity result in rising
or falling prices, due to a shortage on one of the two sides. Additionally, speculations at the metals
exchanges have a co-amplifying effect.
For the year 2019, the various scrap metal prices must be noted: The development was similar. While
the prices in 2017 and 2018 experienced considerable fluctuations and significant price development,
the dynamics in 2019 remained moderate. Prices remained very stable, but a slight decline in averages
was observed in the second half of the year.
Generally, raw materials account for about 25% of prime costs. Hence, they have the second largest
importance after personnel costs. In this respect, reliable documentation and observation of
developments and forecasting with regard to planning, control and quotation calculation are very helpful.
Lower price fluctuation compared to previous years facilitates planning in many respects. Nonetheless,
no foundry can "absorb" major price changes since production can virtually not be delayed. The costs
of raw materials can thus only be calculated separately and on a daily basis. After all, price increases
of raw materials of only 10% results in additional 2.5% prime costs. In many cases, this alone would
completely erode the often meager return on sales in our industry. Fortunately, this risk was much lower
in 2019 than in previous years.
25
G E R M A N Y
Commodity prices are subject to pronounced economic fluctuations. As far as the current economic
cycle before Corona is concerned, prices reached their lowest point at the turn of the year 2015/2016.
Since then, they have been trending much firmer. The depreciation of the Euro by 5% in 2018 had,
among other factors, caused prices to rise by about 9% to 17%. In contrast, aluminium prices fell slightly
by around 7% in 2019. The prices for copper, on the other hand, remained almost unchanged or rose
slightly by around 3%, depending on the alloy. Zinc, on the other hand, had a slight peak in the first
quarter of 2019, but by December was almost back at the level at the beginning of the year. In the
magnesium sector, not only did production figures decline, but the drop in demand in the casting sector
was also reflected in almost 6% lower prices for AS31. For the prices to be paid in Germany, the further
development of the Euro to external value is of fundamental importance.
Payroll costs
The share of personnel costs in the cost of goods sold has risen to just over 30% on average.
Various factors have an influence on the level of personnel costs: in particular, the agreements of the
collective bargaining partners should be mentioned. These agreements were particularly high for the
years 2018 and 2019, especially as the past year was not particularly successful for many foundries.
Although only about half of the companies are still bound by collective agreements, the shortage of
skilled workers is leading to a shortage of qualified personnel with a corresponding increase in wage
expectations. Furthermore, the additional costs (from social security) imposed by law must be mentioned
above all. Finally, sickness-related absences, the number of public holidays, overtime, and shift bonuses
as well as voluntary employer benefits have an impact on the annual development of personnel costs.
Of all these factors, only some are known and published. For others, assumptions must be made. They
are disclosed in the brochure "Key business figures for the foundry industry". Where there are different
regulations in individual federal states, the conditions in North Rhine-Westphalia are the basis.
As far as the year 2019 is concerned, the employees receive a one-off payment:
- 27.5% of the average monthly wage, cost effect of approx. 2.29% p.a.
- Collective agreement additional pay of € 400.00, cost effect of approx. 1.11% p.a.
This means that (based on a benchmark analysis) the collective agreement increase of approx. 3.4%
and changes in social security contribution rates, which are reflected in total increases of 0.45%, result
in an increase in personnel costs of 3.9% (rounded up) for 2019.
With personnel costs accounting for 30% of cost price, a 3.9% increase in personnel costs results in a
1.17% rise in cost price in 2019. If the change in personnel costs is applied to production costs (i.e. cost
price excluding raw material costs) at a rate of around 41%, these costs will have risen by 1.60% in
2019.
For 2020, a solidarity pact was concluded in response to the corona pandemic and no collectively agreed
increases were made. In addition, the extensive use of short-time working will have an impact on
personnel costs.
26
G E R M A N Y
Energy
Measured against the peak prices for (crude) oil in summer 2014, prices in 2019 remained below this
level. After two years of increases, the price has hardly decreased (around 2%). On a US dollar basis,
the price is almost 12% lower than in 2014. Since crude oil is traded in US dollars and the exchange
rate has only slightly decreased, the price of crude oil has also remained very stable in 2019.
The prices for electricity are primarily subject to the individual company conditions. The time and
duration of the conclusion of the contract have a considerable influence not only on the level but also
on the development of electricity costs, in addition to the purchase quantity, the grid fees and agreed
peak loads. The slight drop in the EEG levy in 2019 could not offset the increases in the volume of
electricity purchased, as the network fees also rose by an average of 2% nationwide. However, it should
be noted that the fluctuations varied greatly between the major grid operators and the respective regions.
For example, the range is between -7% in Saarland and +18% in Bremen. At the same time, the
electricity price reported by the Federal Statistical Office has risen by 3%, which illustrates this German
national trend.
After showing a significant increase in the price of coke in December 2018 of around 12% compared to
November 2018, the first quarter of 2019 was still characterized by high sales. This situation then eased
for the cupola foundries throughout the year, with the average price in December around 10% lower
than in the same month last year.
According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office, gas prices in 2019 were down by as much as
7% compared to 2018.
Depending on the ratio of the various energy sources used, energy costs will have fallen by 7% or risen
by a maximum of 3% in 2019. Foundries melting in a crucible with gas or coke are likely to have
experienced a relief. Conversely, foundries using electricity as melting energy have had to bear the
biggest increases. At the same time, it should be mentioned that hardly any foundry will use a melting
medium but will usually use a combination of liquid or gaseous fuels and electrical energy.
The energy costs have an average share of 13% of the production costs if all melting aggregates and
materials are considered. The Fuel Emission Trading Act (BEHG), which will come into force in 2021,
will show how much the share of energy costs in production costs will increase.
Miscellaneous
In 2017 there were significant price increases for some foundry-specific input materials (e.g. furan resin
and blasting abrasives), which in 2019 had in some cases developed significantly downwards. As many
input materials are often only used by a few companies, it was not possible to reflect these changes in
the cost table; both the share in the production costs and the exact changes would have to be
determined and entered in the individual case.
Summary
On the basis of our model calculations, it was shown that the developments outlined above had a
relatively stable effect on cost prices in 2019. Once again, increases in wage and salary costs and
electricity costs had a price-driving effect. One ray of hope was certainly the easing of the situation with
the core input material furan resin. As in many years, the biggest cost increases had to be absorbed by
foundries with labor-intensive processes that produce hand-molded castings with electrical melting
energy.
If the costs for raw materials are excluded and only the increase in manufacturing costs is considered,
a cost increase of around 1.5% can be assumed for a fictitious statistical average foundry in 2019.
27
G E R M A N Y
Throughout 2019, production decreased by 10.0% to 2.193 million tons. The output of motor vehicle
components fell by 8.3% to more than 1.519 million tons. The volume of casted parts for mechanical
engineering decreased by 19.0% to 416,800 tons. Other grey iron components (including moulds and
railway parts, fittings, and components for the steel industry) reached an output volume of 256,900 tons
(-2.0%).
Iron foundries received orders for approximately 1.243 million tons of castings from the motor vehicle
industry, which is a 13.0% decrease. The demand of the mechanical engineering industry reached a
volume of 334,000 tons. Thereby, the orders fell by 32.7%. Orders for parts for miscellaneous
applications made of cast iron reached a volume of 189,100 tons, 14.5% less than in the preceding year.
At the end of December 2019, the order backlog amounted to more than 766,600 tons, 11.5% lower
compared to the end of December 2018.
At 1.43 million tons, the production of ductile iron castings was decreased by 10% compared to the year
before. A separate calculation of nodular and malleable castings is not possible, because of the low
volume of malleable castings. Nonetheless, malleable castings have their specific markets. The output
of motor vehicle components fell by 16.2% to 554,500 tons. The volume of casted parts for mechanical
engineering fell by 12.9% to 469,300 tons. Other components reached an output volume of 409,800
tons (-5.9%).
At the ductile iron sector, the volume of incoming orders reached 1.5 million tons (-15.8%). Ductile iron
foundries received orders for more than 737,000 tons of castings from the motor vehicle industry, which
is a decrease of 10.6%. With minus 28.1% compared to the order volume received the year before, the
demand of the mechanical engineering industry reached a volume of 374,300 tons. Orders for parts for
miscellaneous applications made of ductile cast iron reached almost a volume of 388,500 tons, 11.1%
less than in the preceding year.
At the end of December 2019, the order backlog amounted to 606,000 tons, 17.2% less compared to
the end of December 2018.
Steel
Throughout 2019, production of steel castings fell by 3.4% (178,500 tons). The output of motor vehicle
components increased by 1.7% to 13,500 tons. The volume of casted parts for mechanical engineering
fell by 1.4% to 47,000 tons. Other components reached an output volume of 117,800 tons (-4.7%).
At 164,700 tons, the volume of orders received by the producers of steel castings in 2019 was decreased
by 14.2% compared to the year before. Steel foundries received orders for 15,100 tons of castings from
the motor vehicle industry, an upturn of 4.6%. The demand of the mechanical engineering industry
reached a volume of 39,700 tons (-24.4%). Orders for parts for miscellaneous applications made of steel
castings reached nearly a volume of 109,900 tons, 12.1% less than in the preceding year.
At the end of December 2019, the order backlog amounted to 60,500 tons. The order cushion was
14.6% lower compared to the end of December 2018.
28
G E R M A N Y
In 2019 the production of aluminium castings decreased by 2.3% (996,100 tons). For the magnesium
sector the production reached a level of more than 15,500 tons (-15%). The output of copper castings
fell by 2.6%. The level was more than 77,200 tons. Nearly 57,200 tons of zinc castings were produced,
marking a decrease of 3.4%.
Aluminium foundries received orders for 1.005 million tons (-3.6%). 89.9% of the demand (903,200 tons)
came from the vehicle industry. Down by 13.7% compared to the order volume received the year before,
the demand of magnesium castings reached a volume of 15,100 tons. Orders for parts made of copper
castings reached a volume of 73,400 tons, 21.4% lower than the year before. Foundries producing
casted parts from zinc logged an order level of almost 55,900 tons (-19.6%).
**********
29
H U N G A R Y
The basically export orientated Hungarian foundries have had a relative steady market position during
the last years. But after 6 years the production of Hungarian foundry industry in 2019 showed an average
decrease to the former years. The real reducing is -13% - according to the comparison of years, 2019
and 2018. It was more than natural that the figures for 2020 was created on a moderate but still optimistic
basis again.
The producing of the first half of 2019 in the Hungarian foundry industry was significantly not different
to the formers year one. From the 3. quarter of the year (even the 4. one) has showed already that the
increasing is stopped, and a slow decreasing has started in all segments of the Hungarian foundry
business – see the next table of the last three years’ data of the Hungarian casting productions.
Year after year we have prepared detailed information about the different sectors of the Hungarian
economy, even the foundry industry. It was made a similar report this year too but after the first stage
of the pandemic situation all the written details became essential, let say unsubstantial…
**********
30
I T A L Y
Macroeconomic developments
GDP slowed last year, posting a growth of 0.3 per cent. Investment increased considerably less than
in 2018, held back by the uncertainty that spread among firms following the slowdown in the global
economy and the persistent protectionist tensions. Household consumption was affected by the slow
growth in disposable income.
Against a backdrop of a significant weakening in world trade, Italian firms have largely retained their
market shares. This was reflected in a widening in the current account surplus, driven among other
things by the improvement in the tourism balance; Italy's net international investment position was close
to balance at the end of 2019.
As regards the geographical breakdown, economic activity grew in Northern Italy while remaining at the
same levels as the previous year in the Centre and in the South.
Employment continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace than in 2018. Its growth, which was stronger in
the first half of the year, subsequently faltered, reflecting the cyclical weakening. The unemployment
rate declined to 10.0 per cent on average in 2019.
The fiscal policy stimulus, as measured by the cyclically adjusted change in the primary surplus, was
slightly restrictive, after being expansionary for the previous five years.
Since the end of February, the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has had a strongly negative impact
on economic activity. GDP fell by around 4.7 per cent in the first quarter; according to the estimates, the
reduction appears to have been more pronounced in the Northern regions. The contraction in GDP
seems mainly attributable to the sharp drop in household spending. Since March, foreign trade and
international tourist flows have been affected by the fall in global demand and the suspension of 'non-
essential' productions decreed by the Government to counter the spread of the epidemic. The available
indicators signal a significant drop in GDP for the second quarter as well, which will likely be reflected
in a sharp fall for this year as a whole.
The public health emergency has led to a reduction in the number of people in employment since March,
above all among fixed-term employees; there was a reduction of 0.4 per cent for the first quarter as a
whole, compared with the last quarter of 2019. The fall in jobs was in part mitigated by the freezing of
layoffs for financial reasons and the boosting of the wage supplementation scheme. The deterioration
in labour market conditions may be more pronounced in the spring months, especially in the fixed-term
employment segment.
Inflation was very subdued in the first quarter, and was barely positive in April. Both the inflation
expectations recorded in the euro-area financial markets and Italian firms' intentions regarding their own
prices for the next 12 months were revised downwards.
The outlook for the public finances has been drastically changed by the public health emergency.
According to the official forecasts, the deficit-to-GDP ratio for 2020 and 2021 is expected to be higher
by 8 and 4 percentage points respectively, compared with the figures planned during the last budget
session; the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase by more than 20 percentage points this year, to
155.7 per cent, and to diminish in 2021 thanks to the economic recovery.
A return to growth for the Italian economy in the next ten years is possible provided there are adequate
increases in labour market participation and in employment, in investment, and in productivity.
In 2019 the situation of the most important customers was not good. With the exception of construction
machinery and equipment and agricultural machinery, all other industries closed with a negative sign:
31
I T A L Y
• automotive: -14%
• crude steel: -5%.
• machine tool, robot and automation industry: -2.6%
• agricultural machinery (flat)
• weak growth for general engineering +1% and building sector +2%
• strong growth for construction machinery and equipment industry: +15%
In the first quarter of the 2020, with the exception of building, the others industries had double-digit
declines, exception made for general engineering: -8%.
• automotive: -24%
• crude steel: -16%.
• machine tool, robot and automation industry: -11%
• agricultural machinery: -20%
• construction machinery and equipment industry: -14%
2019 vs 2018
construction machinery and equipment… 15,0%
building 2,3%
steel -5,3%
castings -8,5%
automotive -14,0%
According to figures from ANFIA (the Italian Association of the Automotive Industry), in 2019 the total
number of vehicles made in Italy was 915,305 units, a fall of -14% compared to 2018 (-7% in 2018).
This comprised 542,007 passenger cars (-19% on 2018), 312,377 light vehicles (-4%), 60,294 trucks
(-6%) and 627 buses (+67%).
The year 2019 marked the end of the positive trend, started in 2014 by the Italian machine tool, robot
and automation industry. Nevertheless, the registered decrease is very moderate and shows how the
values of the main economic indicators are returning to normal levels, after the exploit supported by the
measures of Industry/Enterprise 4.0. The slowdown will continue in 2020. There has been a strong fall
of the index regarding the orders collected by Italian machine tool manufacturers in the first quarter
2020, in which an 11% decrease was registered in comparison with the same period of the previous
year. This is reported in the last survey carried out by the Economic Studies Department & Business
Culture of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, the Italian machine tools, robots and automation
systems manufacturers' association.
The overall outcome is affected by the collapse of the orders collected by the manufacturers in the
domestic market, down by 41.3% compared with the period January-March 2019.
In the 2019, the output of crude steel in Italy was registered with a volume of 24 million tons, -5.3%
lower than in 2018. The Italian Steel Association (Federacciai) forecast a menus in steel production from
-10% to -15% for the current year.
32
I T A L Y
A weak growth for general engineering +1% and building sector +2%. The residential building sector
grew by 1.9% in 2019. Public building investments increased by 2.9%. Other sectors were stable
(+0.4%). All in all, the volume of the building industry increased by 2.3% in 2019.
In 2019, production activity in the ferrous metals foundry industry was marked by a strong downward
trend, which gradually worsened before reaching its most critical point at the end of the year.
Over the course of the year, production of ferrous castings showed a decline of -11.5% compared to
2018, when the sector registered growth of 1.5%. It comes after a cycle of partial recovery, interrupted
only by the 2015 fall of -2.8%.
This represents the first double-digit decline since the 2012 collapse, when the drop in production almost
hit 10%.
Overall production volumes were just above 1.11 million tons.
But behind the overall picture of decline in activity, in reality there lies a broad variation in performance
across categories.
Looking at the main categories, the decline can be traced back to iron castings (down -12.3%), which
accounts for more than 94% of the ferrous sector with 1.049.067 tons its performance has inevitably
had a large effect on the overall result.
Much more encouraging results emerged from the steel castings and investment castings categories,
where trends that differ from the overall picture are not difficult to find.
In terms of steel castings, the figures show uneven progress over the course of 2019 – this is especially
apparent when the various production specializations are compared. Overall, however, the year finished
on a positive note, marked by growth of +5.2%. This is a significant result, especially given that it comes
after a particularly challenging three years (2015-2017) for this category, which saw volume declines of
-13%, -8% and -5% respectively over the period.
Investment castings saw a similarly positive trend, with an increase in volume terms of +5.5%.
33
I T A L Y
Further afield, despite heightened tensions over tariffs and the ensuing sharp slowdown in global trade,
the United States – surprisingly – was a significant market. Exports to the country grew by +5%, which
meant that it accounted for 18% of the total volume – a full two percentage points more than in 2018.
Imports too showed a marked decrease: from +7% in 2018 to -5.8% in 2019, with the familiar end-of-
year collapse.
The results of foreign trade were notably more positive in terms of value. In fact, in this area, imports
fell by just half a percentage point with exports decreasing by a modest -1.2%.
Large falls in all main markets: mechanical engineering, transport, construction and steelmaking
The challenges facing its target markets were reflected – and occasionally magnified – in the production
of iron castings.
Over half of the volumes of iron castings made in Italy are destined for the mechanical engineering
industry, which comprises machine tools, agricultural machinery and earth-moving equipment, as well
as various other products.
34
I T A L Y
In 2019, the production of castings for this category, around 528,000 tons, saw a decline of more than
60,000 tons – a drop of -10.3% compared to 2018. In terms of the detailed production breakdown, this
category accounted for 319,000 tons of grey iron (-11.2% compared to 2018) and 209,000 tons of
ductile iron (malleable and spheroidal), with a decrease compared to the previous year of -8.9%.
Meanwhile, there was a sharp fall in the volumes produced by foundries serving the automotive
industry, which felt the effects of the significant European slowdown, and in particular, the strong
headwinds in the German car market – as well as the global crisis, compounded by issues in the
domestic market.
According to figures from ANFIA (the Italian Association of the Automotive Industry), in 2019 the total
number of vehicles made in Italy was 915,305 units, a fall of -14% compared to 2018 (-7% in 2018).
This comprised 542,007 passenger cars (-19% on 2018), 312,377 light vehicles (-4%), 60,294 trucks
(-6%) and 627 buses (+67%).
In 2019, the transport industry was the destination for around 339,000 tons of iron castings, or 32% of
the total output. This comprised 223,000 tons of grey iron (-13.4%) and 116,000 tons of ductile iron
(-11.4%). This production category closed the year down -12.7%.
Globally, the picture for the automotive industry gradually worsened over the course of 2019, with
increasingly concerning and widespread recessionary trends in the final part of the year.
Despite being one of the few areas of the economy to have enjoyed a positive 2019 and showing only
limited signs of the severity of the 10-year crisis, the construction industry was unable to give much of
a boost to the production of iron castings. Production destined for the industry actually took a further
step backwards, with a drop of over 12,000 tons – a decline of -14% compared to 2018.
Production output closed at just over 75,000 tons.
The most significant production areas in this category are manhole covers, grilles, drain covers and
hatches. These products have seen aggressive competition – first from countries in eastern Europe in
the 1990s, and later from Asia, which has led to the large scale downsizing of Italian firms, who have
been reduced to very low numbers. Last year’s volumes account for 7% of total iron castings – a third
of what the typical figure would have been 20 years ago.
The performance of castings for the steelmaking industry also enjoyed mixed fortunes in 2019: the
production of ingot moulds fell by -8% compared to 2018, losing by some distance the ground it had
made up the previous year, while cylinders made a small gain (+2.8%). Overall, 33,000 tons of castings
were produced for the steelmaking industry and the average result saw a fall of two percentage points
against the one point gained in 2018.
Finally, the contribution of the remaining category, “other castings”, which accounts for 7% of the total,
saw a big decline (-25%).
35
I T A L Y
Grey Iron
64%
Ductile iron
36%
Steel foundries: previous year’s positive trend continues (+5.2%), but significant differences
across firms and target markets
2019 is not an easy year to interpret when it comes to production data for steel castings due to a very
marked fragmentation of the results that determine the average. In general, though, the picture is a
broadly positive one with growth of +5.2% and output just shy of 60,000 tons. In absolute terms, the
category enjoyed growth of almost 3,000 tons compared to the previous year.
The 2019 result is particularly satisfying for two reasons. Firstly, because it was achieved against the
backdrop of a marked contraction in the other categories of ferrous castings and, secondly, because it
comes after a three-year period (2015-2017), which was especially challenging, leading to declines in
volumes of -13%, -8% and -5% respectively.
The category felt the effects of the collapse in the transport industry but benefited from investments in
the oil and gas supply chain, which saw greater demand for turbines, compressors and other equipment.
The mechanical engineering and steelmaking industries also made positive contributions. However,
demand for castings for quarries, mines and building and earth-moving equipment was more
disappointing.
36
I T A L Y
Difference in development between steel types: alloys flat, inox positive, double-digit growth
for carbon
Stainless steel
19%
Steel alloys
59%
Carbon steel
22%
A highly fragmented picture emerges from the production result broken down by steel type.
Last year, carbon steels showed a very impressive ability to grow (+22.5%), which meant the segment
registered around 13,000 tons and increased its contribution to the total steel castings category by a
full three percentage points (22% compared to 19% in 2018).
Stainless steel also displayed a trend towards growth (up +5.2%), which took its volumes above 11,000
tons and maintained its share of the total at 19%.
Finally, volumes of steel alloys lost percentage points, despite maintaining the same production levels
as 2018 of around 35,000 tons. Its share was taken by carbon steels, and this sub-category now
contributes 59% of the total, compared to 62% in 2018.
The extraordinary growth in the production of steel castings for the mechanical engineering industry
(+22%) gave a significant boost to the overall result of the category.
The foundries that supply the industry produced 10,528 tons of castings, equivalent to 18% of the total.
All production grouped under “mechanical engineering” saw significant expansion with double-digit rates
of growth, albeit at different levels:
• castings for compressors and pumps (+10%),
• castings for steam and wind turbines (+24%)
• castings for the petrochemical industry (+20%)
• castings for valves (+25%)
Finally, castings for the electrical engineering industry closed 2019 at broadly the same level compared
to the previous year.
Output at foundries producing castings for the mining industry, which includes castings for mining
equipment, quarries and worksites, showed a downward trend of -7% compared to 2018.
Following a positive cycle in the transport industry and the beneficial effect on steel foundries, in 2019
the results of the contraction were reflected in the production of castings, which fell by -5% with a spike
of -10% in applications for the automotive industry. The overall result for this industry was in part
balanced out by the positive trend in production for other “motor industries” – marine and railway
applications grew by +11% and +5% respectively.
The production of steel castings for the steel industry is deeply influenced by new investments in
equipment for the steelmaking industries. In 2019, the output for this category was the same of the
previous year (1,306 tons at -0.2%).
Castings for the construction industry go directly towards use in the building of public works. After years
of worrying decline, 2019 production in this area saw a positive result, with growth of +5.2%, taking
production levels above 11,000 tons.
37
I T A L Y
By any measure – employee numbers, production or turnover – the Italian investment casting industry
has a very high concentration of supply.
It also displays high levels of differentiation in production of ferrous and non-ferrous castings and
superalloys. In terms of the mix of alloys produced, steel alloys maintain pole position relative to
superalloys and non-ferrous alloy castings, and account for the largest share of production among firms
that operate in this category.
As for target markets, the most significant contribution to growth came from the aerospace industry.
Automotive industry collapse in 2019 leads to 50,000 ton fall in castings for non-ferrous metal
foundries
After four consistently positive years followed by a stable 2018, non-ferrous castings output ended
2019 with a fresh decline of -4.9%. The resulting loss of around 50,000 tons drove output below the all-
important threshold of one million tons per year (959,000 tons).
The category suffered the twin effects of a worsening in the economic climate for German car making
and the fallout from trade disputes. The latter was not limited to the US and China, but spilled over into
the EU and caused a significant downscaling in exports of non-ferrous castings, which are thought to
account for between 50% and 60% of overall production.
The setback affected all non-ferrous metals, albeit to differing extents. The most significant contribution
to the overall result, however, came from the production of aluminium castings, which accounts for 85%
of non-ferrous metals: it saw a drop of -5.3% compared to the previous year. The only segment to
perform worse than aluminium was magnesium, with a decline of -12%.
Aluminium castings
In 2019, the production of aluminium castings fell to 810,647 tons. Compared to 2018, the average
annual rate of decline was -5.3%. The percentage share of aluminium for total non-ferrous castings over
the past 20 years has risen by 68% to the current figure of 84%.
Zinc castings
Among non-ferrous alloys, 2019 was particularly significant for the development of the production of
zinc alloys from die-casting (+1%, with volumes equivalent to 74,036 tons). This data should be viewed
with a great deal of optimism; not only is it the one positive result, it also comes after the severe
challenges that have beset the segment over the past 15 years – from the slowdown in domestic demand
to the widespread delocalisation to Eastern Europe and Asia by many of the industries it serves.
Competition from companies in these countries is particularly apparent in large-scale production.
Consequently, as a reaction to the economic challenges facing the segment, many Italian zamak
foundries have implemented bold strategies in recent years that focus on medium-scale production,
taking great pains to meet the more bespoke requirements of customers – and not only those related to
the technical elements of casting. A number of companies’ operating models are designed to provide
another layer of service to the customer, and no longer simply supply a raw part, but rather finished
products that are chrome-plated, painted and assembled.
38
I T A L Y
Magnesium castings
As noted elsewhere, the increased delocalised of production on the part of companies making
magnesium die-castings has led to a reduction in overall volumes. These have now been stable for
several years at around 7,000 tons (7,097 tons in 2019 with a decline, in double digits this time, of
-12% compared to 2018). This segment also suffered last year from the negative impact caused by the
slowdown in the automotive sector.
39
I T A L Y
Main markets
2019 confirmed the by-now familiar breakdown of non-ferrous castings sales to the five principal
industries that make up the category’s customer base. Ranked in order of importance: transport industry
(55%), construction (14%), consumer durable goods (8%), electrical engineering (11%) and mechanical
engineering (9%).
The Italian market for non-ferrous castings displays a very strong bent towards the transport industry,
or more accurately the automotive industry, which accounted for 55% of overall production in 2019,
equivalent to 521,637 tons – a downward trend of -10%, or a fall of more than 58,000 tons. The
industry’s share fell by two percentage points compared to 2018.
The ability of the construction industry, the second largest market for non-ferrous castings, to make up
the ground is in consistent decline. Its share of the total was 14% in 2019, broadly in line with the
previous year’s result. Last year, volumes for the industry hit 137,454 tons, a small increase of +1%.
The use of non-ferrous castings in the production of electrical engineering applications displayed a good
rate of growth in 2019 (+8.8%), which meant volumes reached 104,197 tons. This was mainly due to
the effect of greater foreign demand, allowing foundries operating in this segment to grow export
volumes.
2019 was not a positive year in terms of non-ferrous casting applications for the mechanical engineering
industry. The production of castings for this industry fell by 5 percentage points, with a volume of 83,736
tons.
Regarding to the total direct cost of raw materials not considered in “Raw Material Extra Charge”, as
well as the cost of energy and of the auxiliary materials that are necessary to obtain the foundry casting,
Italian Foundries in 2019 applied the “Direct Transformation Input” index. It is related to different kind of
furnace.
• DTI for Foundries using electrical furnaces: Average Year 2019 /Average Year 2018 = -1%
• DTI for Foundries using cupola furnaces: Average Year 2019 /Average Year 2018 = -1%
40
I T A L Y
Outlook 2020
If the Covid emergency does not worsen in the next months for Italian foundry production for 2020 it is
expected a decline from -20% to -30%.
In the first quarter of the current year the total castings production (ferrous and non ferrous metals)
declined by -17% compared to the same period in 2019: iron (-33%) and non ferrous (-16%).
In January-April we saw a larger declines of production: -29% (-42% iron castings and -32% non ferrous
castings).
**********
41
N O R W A Y
The outlook for the Norwegian economy has changed completely in just a short time. In the last
economic report published by Statistics Norway in December 2019, it was assumed that the Norwegian
economy would remain approximately cyclically neutral in the years ahead.
The coronavirus pandemic has meant that the Norwegian economy is now experiencing a downturn that
is likely to last for several years to come. A highly expansive fiscal policy, lower interest rates, the
weakest krone exchange rate on record and falling real wages are dampening the effects on the labour
market.
Norway is likely to see an economic recovery before our trading partners due to Norway’s greater scope
for manoeuvrability in fiscal and monetary policy and the depreciation of the krone against most
currencies.
In our calculations, we have assumed that the most extreme restrictions aimed at reducing the spread
of infection will be gradually eased in the second quarter, which is slightly earlier than many of our
trading partners. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the future course of infection, and
some infection prevention measures may need to be continued for much longer than we have
anticipated. In such a scenario, the downturn in the economy is likely to be both more severe and last
for longer than described in this report.
Below is a summary of Statistics Norway’s report and the main features of the projections.
Our international projection path has been adjusted downward considerably since the last report due to
the spread of the coronavirus. However, growth is expected to pick up again towards the end of 2020
and the start of 2021, but our trading partners will remain significantly below the trend growth at the end
of the projection period.
The decline is due to the outbreak of the coronavirus and the subsequent restrictions aimed at reducing
the spread of infection worldwide. At the end of March, mainland Norway’s GDP is estimated to be
around 14 per cent lower than at the start of the month.¹ Activity in market-oriented businesses and
public administration has declined significantly. Closed kindergartens and the cancellation or reduction
of a number of healthcare services have led to a decrease in public administration activity. In the market-
oriented businesses, the decline is particularly pronounced in certain service industries, such as
accommodation and food service and culture and entertainment.
There is great uncertainty about the further development of the Norwegian economy. We assume that
the most extreme measures to prevent the spread of infection will gradually be eased during the second
quarter, but that some of the measures will continue for longer. Even if the restrictions are gradually
lifted, their repercussions and the downturn in the global economy are likely to keep the Norwegian
economy in an economic downturn for almost the entire projection period, up to 2023.
Between 10 March and 24 March, the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration’s registered
unemployment (100% unemployed) figure increased from around 65 000 to approximately 290 000,
where it has remained as of 21 April. On 21 April, this corresponded to 10.2 per cent of the labour force.
In these statistics, those who have been laid off full time are counted as unemployed. We assume that
many of those who are now laid off will be re-employed when the restrictions are reduced. The Labour
Force Survey (LFS) records those who have been laid off full time for less than three months as
employed. This means that unemployment as measured by the LFS, which is what we forecast, will be
42
N O R W A Y
significantly lower than the figures from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration in the coming
months.
Thereafter, the LFS figures will increase, since those who have been laid off for three months or more
will be counted as unemployed, and new people entering the labour market will not be able to find work.
The potentially large growth in young unemployed people is likely to be offset to some extent by an
increase in those choosing instead to continue their education, as has been the case in previous
economic downturns. According to our calculations, unemployment measured by the LFS will rise to
approximately 6 per cent as an annual average in 2020 and then decrease somewhat until 2023. The
level of unemployment measured by the LFS is the highest and most persistent we have witnessed
since the banking crisis in the early 1990s.
The front-runner industries model governs the development in average annual salaries. As a result of
the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s wage settlement (a main settlement) has been postponed until
3 August. The deadline for the Federation of Norwegian Industries and the United Federation of Trade
Unions reaching agreement is 21 August.
The fall in demand among our trading partners has put intense pressure on the profitability of many
internationally exposed industries. A weaker krone and lower energy prices may help to ease the
situation for some businesses, but this is little consolation for companies whose demand has
disappeared completely. Historically, the front-runner industries model, which is based on wage growth
being adapted to what the internationally exposed industries can withstand, has served as a cushion
against the downturn in the Norwegian economy. We assume that the front-runner industries model will
also play this role in the current economic downturn. Nominal wage growth is expected to be 2 per cent
in 2020 and 1.6 per cent in 2021. This means that real wages will be reduced in 2021. In 2022 and 2023,
wage growth is expected to pick up to some extent.
The Government and the Storting have introduced several financial measures to offset the
repercussions of the coronavirus. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the measures adopted so far,
as well as the effect of lower activity in the economy, will weaken the budget by NOK 200 billion in 2020.
In total, this represents 7 per cent of Norway’s mainland GDP. The sum of the current measures provides
a stimulus of just under 5 percentage points to the Norwegian economy, as measured by the budget
indicator. In comparison, the fiscal policy strategy during the financial crisis in 2009 was intended to
provide a budget impetus of 2.4 percentage points. The fiscal rule dictates that, over time, the use of oil
revenues should constitute 3 per cent of the Government Pension Fund Global but that considerable
emphasis should be placed on smoothing out fluctuations in the economy in order to ensure good
capacity utilisation and low unemployment. After remaining at just under 3 per cent for several years,
the structural non-oil public deficit is expected to be around 4 per cent in 2020 as a result of the financial
packages introduced. If new crisis packages are launched, or the existing arrangements are extended,
the deficit could be significantly higher than 4 per cent in 2020. We assume that the structural non-oil
public deficit will return to around 3 per cent over the next few years, but this estimate is subject to
considerable uncertainty.
Norwegian measures to reduce the spread of infection are having a direct impact on petroleum
investments on the Norwegian continental shelf. The pandemic is also indirectly impacting on
investments due to the sharp fall in oil prices. The measures have led to lower investment activity on
the Norwegian continental shelf since early March. Virtually all activity not dependent on production in
the field has been halted in order to minimise the risk of infection. It is likely that the progress of some
ongoing developments will be slower than planned, both due to infection control measures and the need
to postpone costs. Lower oil prices are likely to result in some investment activity being delayed until
next year. We estimate that petroleum investments will be reduced by around 9 per cent in 2020 and
around 12 per cent in 2021. This factor alone will push down mainland GDP growth by 0.3 percentage
43
N O R W A Y
points on average over these two years. In 2022 and 2023, petroleum investments are expected to pick
up again in line with a moderate upturn in oil prices.
Investment trends are highly sensitive to reduced demand, and according to our calculations, business
investment will fall by around 20 per cent in 2020. Manufacturing investment is expected to fall even
more. Even before the outbreak of the coronavirus, reduced manufacturing investment was expected
this year as a result of the completion of several projects in the oil refining, chemical and pharmaceutical
industries in 2019. Only slightly reduced investments are expected in power supply. Service investment
is also expected to be lower. According to our calculations, business investment will recover somewhat,
but will continue to be about 10 per cent lower in 2023 than in 2019.
The monthly house price statistics from Real Estate Norway show high seasonally adjusted house price
growth in January and February this year of 0.9 and 0.5 per cent respectively. In March, this trend was
reversed as house prices fell by as much as 1.4 per cent. This is the most dramatic fall in house prices
in a single month since the financial crisis in 2008. The price fall in March this year was broadly based
on the nationwide situation, with the strongest decline in Oslo and Trondheim. The housing market also
showed subdued activity in March this year, as the number of homes sold and put on the market was
around 14.5 per cent less than in the corresponding month last year. Meanwhile, sales of new homes
were down 47 per cent in March this year compared to March last year, according to the Norwegian
Home Builders’ Association.
It therefore appears that the outbreak of coronavirus and the infection control measures implemented
by the authorities affected both the housing prices and the activity in the housing market in March.
Although mortgage rates are at a record low, prospects for modest income growth and general
uncertainty about the future economic development are likely to lead to continued falling house prices
through much of 2020, before a gradual recovery. House prices at the end of 2023 are expected to be
about 5 per cent higher than at the start of 2020. This weak development is also likely to mean that
housing investment will fall this year and next. According to our calculations, housing investment will
account for just under 6 per cent of Norway’s mainland GDP in 2023, which is around the average for
the last 20 years.
Household consumption in some goods and service categories has come to a complete standstill. When
some of the restrictions introduced on 12 March are eased at the end of April, parts of the service
consumption will pick up again. The ban on staying overnight at holiday cabins outside owners’
municipality of residence has also been lifted, but the public are still being encouraged to avoid
unnecessary travel. This may lead to the normalisation of some consumption, but nowhere near the
level at this time last year.
Many people have experienced a large loss of income due to the economic crisis. This in turn will lead
to weaker consumption development in 2020, even if the authorities’ efforts to fight the virus prove to be
successful. Conversely, some households will not have experienced such a fall in income, and these
are likely to boost the recovery in consumption. Overall, we estimate that consumption will fall by around
10 per cent in 2020 and that there will be a significant recovery in consumption in the years ahead.
Record-low krone
The import-weighted exchange rate was weakened considerably in March from its already weak level,
but about half of the depreciation has subsequently been reversed. We expect the krone exchange rate
to remain at the current level going forward.
44
N O R W A Y
Key policy interest rate to remain at record low for some time
Norges Bank reduced its key policy interest rate twice in March, by a total of 1.25 percentage points,
bringing it down to 0.25 per cent. Norges Bank explained that the latest interest rate cut was to reduce
corporate borrowing costs on existing and new loans during the crisis. The expansive effect of the
interest rate cuts is not expected to be seen until after the situation has normalised. Since then, the
Storting has agreed a temporary grant scheme for businesses experiencing a large drop in turnover,
which is aimed at covering part of their unavoidable costs, including net interest expense. The scheme
means that Norges Bank’s interest rate cuts will have less significance for the business sector, as some
of the interest costs of the hardest hit companies will be covered regardless. When the infection control
measures start to ease off, activity in the economy will pick up. In our projections, the current interest
rate level is regarded as appropriate for the economic situation that is expected when the measures to
stop the spread of the virus are lifted. We assume that the key policy interest rate will remain at around
0.25 per cent throughout 2021 and then gradually increase. In 2023, the key policy interest rate is
expected to be around 0.75 per cent.
The weaker krone is pushing up the imported inflation this year, but is also affecting inflation in the
longer term due to lags in cost developments and pricing. The impact of the krone depreciation on
Norwegian import prices is mitigated by the falling external inflation and by the fact that some import
demand will, over time, shift towards countries that have improved their competitiveness in relation to
Norway. Low energy prices in the current year will help to reduce price increases, both directly and
indirectly. For 2020, we expect CPI growth of 1.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent growth in the CPI-ATE.
Growth measured by the CPI is then expected to rise to around 2.0 per cent in 2023.
¹ See Bougroug and Sletten (2020). Nåsituasjonen i norsk økonomi. Statistics Norway. Documents
2020/17.
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45
P O L A N D
In Poland there are almost 400 foundries (including small craft enterprises with small production and
employment). According to the statistical data, 60% of them are independent foundries and the
remaining 40% are the departments of larger companies in which the casting department supplies the
castings to their final products.
According to statistics, the number of foundries employing more than 250 people constitutes 5.5% of
the total number of foundries, and total employment in this group is estimated at 10,750. The remaining
94.5% are foundries employing less than 250 people (total 13 550 employees), the SME sector.
Employment in the SME sector amounts to 55.8% of total employment and production of 38.5% of total
cast production.
• Automotive – 62%
• Building – 10%
• Machines – 9%
• Railway – 4%
• Steel works – 4%
• Agriculture – 2%
• Mining – 2%
• Energy – 2%
• Other – 5%
The share of exports in total castings production in 2019 was at the level of 60%.
The production of castings in 2019, including ferrous and non-ferrous alloys reached 1 011 500 tonnes
(estimated data).
Castings from grey and alloy cast iron have the largest share in the total castings production, although
over the last decade their share in total castings has been declining. In 2019 it amounted to 45%.
Ductile iron castings account for 15,5% of total castings. Malleable iron castings have the smallest share,
1.0% of total casting production. For several years there has been a downward trend in the share of
cast iron production in malleable cast iron in total production.
In 2019 the share of steel castings amounted to 5% of the total cast production.
Non-ferrous metal castings accounted for 36% of total cast production in 2019. In the last decade, the
production of non-ferrous metal castings has shown an uptrend.
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46
P O R T U G A L
General Economy
The external environment of the Portuguese economy has been generally favorable in 2019. The global
economy has continued to expand at a solid pace against a background of continuing favorable financial
and labor market conditions and relatively high levels of confidence of economic agents in the major
advanced economies
According to the latest results of the INE (National Statistical Institute) in 2019, Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) registered a real growth of +2,2%, in relation to the previous year (+2,1% in 2018 and +2,1% in
2017).
Exports of goods and services were the component of overall demand that contributed the most to the
recovery of the Portuguese economy that began in 2013. In 2019, with a total export value of 93,5 billion
euros (58,2 billion euros in goods and 35,3 billion euros in services), represents growth of 5,6% over
the previous year of 2018.
In 2019, the active population in Portugal amounted to 5,252.6 thousand people, corresponding to an
activity rate (15 and over) of 59.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher (p.p.) than in the previous year. The
employed population was estimated at 4,913.1 thousand people, having increased by 46.4 thousand
people (1.0%) compared to 2018. The unemployment rate achieved in 2019 was 6,9% of the active
population.
In the foundry area, the demand for specialized technicians, operators and maintenance staff is
increasing every year. Companies have difficulties in capturing talent and to keep them in their
organizations.
Foundry Industry
The automotive industry keeps being the main customer market, which demands roughly 70% of the
global Portuguese production of foundry goods.
The Portuguese foundry sector exports 90% of the total production (in weight) mainly to the European
market.
Production
In 2019, the outcome of the Portuguese foundry industry was roughly 197 thousand tons, 140,4
thousand tons from the ferrous sector and 56,5 thousand tons from the non-ferrous sector.
The steel foundries had a decrease production for the third consecutive year. Steel and the nodular iron
foundries have decreased their production too, which was reflected in a global decrease in the ferrous
sector of 3,4%. The non-ferrous sector had a slight decrease in its production, around 0.04% less than
2018.
Ferrous Production
In the ferrous sector, as mentioned above, a decrease can be seen in all sub-sectors.
47
P O R T U G A L
In 2019, the non-ferrous metal castings production, as a whole, registered a decreased of 0.04% mainly
due to the light castings. The aluminum pressure diecasting decreased its production in 1,6% comparing
to the previous year. This decreased was mainly due to the automotive industry needs, since this
subsector is very dependent on this industry. The zinc alloys (pressure diecasting and gravity die
casting) increased the production 1,0% comparing to 2018 and the copper castings alloys increased
3,4%.
In 2019 no new foundries were installed in Portugal, although during the year occurred several
investments in the existing foundries to increase the plant output capacity.
Global investments in the non-ferrous sector during 2019 was around 25,6 M€, mainly in aluminum
foundries. In 2020, the planned investments will decrease for a total amount of 13,5 M€.
Global investments in the ferrous sector during 2019 was around 15,7 M€, mainly supported by iron
casting. In 2020, the planned investment will go up to 19 M€.
Industrial Cost
In 2019, the price of most raw materials on the ferrous sector was constant throughout the year.
In the non-ferrous sector, the price of raw materials reflected a decrease on aluminium, zinc and copper
alloys along the year.
Electricity – in 2019 there was a decrease in the electricity cost. 2019 showed a decrease of the network
access and use tariffs, and a slight decrease in the energy price both responsible for a decrease of the
electricity bill for the industrial consumers. For 2020 is also expected a decrease of the electricity cost.
The gas price decreased from 2018 to 2019 due to the decrease of network access and use tariffs of
natural gas. This reduction indicates a continuation of the falling trend in natural gas prices for industrial
consumers in the last four years (fall of price up to 4% for the bigger consumers). In 2020 this tendency
of decrease of gas price will continue.
Incoming orders
The needs of automotive sector suffered a decrease in 2019. In 2020, due to the pandemic, this
decrease was very sharp. The automotive sector was the most affected, with production declines of
around 30% compared to last year (data up to June 2020).
The Portuguese Foundry Industry has its own training and vocational center, CINFU, a joint partnership
with APF-The Portuguese Foundry Association and the Portuguese Institute of Employment and
Vocational Training, which has once more made an outmost job training for the foundry men – those in
active jobs and those being prepared for future employments. There is also a long partnership with the
University of Porto – Faculty of Engineering, for the training of future foundry engineers.
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48
S L O V E N I A
In 2019 the Slovenian foundry industry had a good year. The total production was 195.609 tons it is
only 1% less than 2018. Production of grey iron was 58.281 tons, ductile iron 43.867 tons, malleable
iron 3200.00 tons. We had only 872 tons of Cu-alloys, 54.625 tons of aluminium alloys and 9.665 tons
of Zinc. Almost 85% of production was sold abroad, the export was mostly for Germany, Austria, Italy…
All together we have 58 foundries, the number of emploided persons is 5359 workers. Income is
815 millions Euros, export is more than 85%.
The problems in foundry industry had the same problems as the whole Europe foundry sector, so we
made only a comparison that is sensible.
For the needs of outlining a revised state budget, IMAD updated its forecast of economic trends
for 2020 and 2021 at the beginning of June, as stipulated by Article 11 of the Intervention
Measures in the Fiscal Area Act adopted on 20 March 2020. The forecast is based on the latest data
(available up to 10 June) from international institutions for Slovenia’s trading partners, as well as on
available data on current economic developments and the adopted economic policy measures.
The COVID-19 pandemic, in combination with strict health protection and containment
measures, represents a significant negative shock to economic activity in European countries
and worldwide. The strict measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus have led to a pronounced
contraction in economic activity in the euro area and globally due to the shutdown of businesses in non-
essential service activities and hampered activity in industry and other service activities. In order to
alleviate the negative consequences of the epidemic, extensive packages of measures have been
adopted at the level of countries and by the ECB and the European Commission to help businesses and
citizens to bridge liquidity problems due to a loss of income and to boost economic recovery. While
these measures will not prevent the decline in economic activity, they have a significant impact on its
extent and are essential for restarting activity.
The prospects for economic growth in main trading partners have deteriorated strongly since
mid-March, a recession of historic proportions being predicted in the majority of countries for
this year due to a deep decline in activity in the second quarter. IMAD’s forecast takes into account
international institutions’ latest forecasts for Slovenia’s trading partners (published by 10 June), which
mostly assume gradual economic recovery after the first wave of the epidemic is contained. At least at
the beginning, it will be most intense in manufacturing, while service activities, especially those related
to tourism, will be recovering more slowly. As the virus is still present and some containment measures
have remained in place, we assume no rapid rebound to the pre-epidemic level in the international
environment. The mitigation of possible negative consequences will continue to crucially depend on the
responsiveness of economic policies, while a more lasting stabilisation of economic conditions can
probably be expected only after the development and general introduction of a vaccine or an appropriate
medicine.
In the Summer Forecast, we predict a 7.6% decline in GDP in 2020, which will be followed by a
recovery in 2021, but in most activities value added will remain lower than before the outbreak
of the epidemic. This year’s decline in GDP will arise from a fall in value added in a number of sectors,
which will be a consequence of a significant contraction of activity in the first half of the year, particularly
in the second quarter. After the containment of the epidemic and the loosening of protection measures,
economic activity is expected to recover in the second half of the year, but the recovery will be gradual
and its pace uneven across sectors, as the virus is still present and some restrictions in Slovenia and
trading partners remain in place. This year, value added is set to decline the most in accommodation
and food service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation, personal service activities and
transportation. A somewhat smaller, yet still significant, fall is expected in manufacturing. Owing to the
negative external impacts and containment measures at home and abroad, we expect a significant
decline in exports and imports this year. High uncertainty is also affecting investment decisions, which
will be reflected in a substantial contraction of investment, particularly in machinery and equipment.
Private consumption will also drop more than last year due to restricted movement and limited supply
49
S L O V E N I A
during the epidemic and increased uncertainty, although disposable income will remain similar to that
last year due to the government’s support measures. Government consumption however will strengthen
temporarily in crisis conditions. Under these assumptions, we could see a gradual recovery in most
activities in 2021, but it will remain uneven. We also expect an increase in external trade and investment,
particularly investment in construction and, with some lag, machinery and equipment, but growth will not
fully substitute this year’s declines. Labour market conditions will stabilise only gradually following this
year’s deterioration.
Uncertainty and the risks of an even sharper decline in GDP associated with possible
recurrences of major outbreaks of COVID-19 remain high, but there are also some upside risks
to the baseline projections. A new and more intense outbreak would lead to the reinstatement of
stringent measures to contain its spread, which in turn would again strongly hamper business operations
in service sectors and industry. Companies would no longer be able to carry out their activities, the
number of bankruptcies would increase and greater consequences would also be felt on the labour
market. If this were to happen this year, GDP would fall even more and bankruptcies and increased
unemployment would also contribute to a weaker recovery. However, if a vaccine or a medicine is
developed and made available soon, or if the spread of the virus is effectively and more permanently
contained, activity may recover more rapidly than predicted in the baseline scenario.
The corona crisis has also brought Slovenia some new opportunities, or risks if it does not take
advantage of them. The shortening of global value chains or a shift towards suppliers in closer
geographical proximity, which had actually already started before the epidemic, presents an opportunity
for higher economic growth in Slovenia in the medium term, as, given its welldeveloped infrastructure,
high-quality workforce and EU membership, it could attract investment from Western Europe. As
measures to boost the economy at the EU level encourage investment in digital and green
transformation and the transition to more sustainable economic development, it is essential for a
successful recovery from the crisis that Slovenia will be able to adapt accordingly (including by preparing
projects for the absorption of EU funds) and use this period as much as possible for addressing
developmental challenges (i.e. for training and education, research and development, acceleration of
digital transformation, etc.). In view of the risk of a new wave of infections, the period after the end of
(the first wave of) the epidemic should also be used to better prepare for its recurrence. By investing in
people and equipment, it is necessary to strengthen the health care system and improve the system of
social care and the conditions in nursing homes, which have proved to be a weak point during this crisis.
It is also necessary to increase investment in R&D and in the development and production of medicines
and protective equipment.
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50
S P A I N
The Bank of Spain estimates GDP growth for 2020, between -9% and -15.1%. Spanish GDP would fall
9% this year 2020, and would rebound 7.7% and 2.4%, in 2021 and 2022 respectively. In a second
scenario, considering a gradual recovery, and with possible less virulent epidemic outbreaks, GDP
would fall by 11.6% in 2020, and would grow by 9.1% and 2.1% in each of the following two years.
Finally, it defines another scenario (the most pessimistic), with a very slow recovery, which would
include substantial new infections spikes and new measures to restrict activity. In this case, the
drop in GDP in 2020 would reach -15.1%. Spain is among the countries in the euro area with the worst
growth forecasts, due to the high weight of tourism.
The IMF, in the report for June 2020, reviews the Spanish GDP in 2020, placing it at -12.8%. In 2021,
the Spanish economy would rebound at a rate of 6.3%.
Industrial sector
In December 2019, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased 1.7% compared to the same
month the previous year. The average variation in 2019 shows an increase of 0.6% compared to 0.7%
in the same period of the previous year.
In December 2019, the Order Entry Index in the Industry, decreased by 0.9% compared to the same
month of the previous year. In 2019, the Order Entry Index in the Industry registered a negative rate of
-1.0%, (+5.9% in 2018).
In 2019, the Business Turnover Index in the Industry rose 0.4% (4% in 2018).
Metal Situation
Turnover of the metal sector grew in 2019 by 0.8%, and orders fell by -2.8%.
Industrial metal production records a rate of 1.7% in December with respect to the same month
of the previous year. In the accumulated of the year, an increase of 0.9% is recorded in 2019 (1.9% in
2018).
Exports of the Metal Sector increased in December 2019 by 3.8% (compared to the same month of the
previous year). On average, Exports increased by 1.1% in 2019. On the other hand, Metal imports
increased 1.9% in December 2019, compared to the 3.7% fall registered in November 2019. An
increase of 2% was registered for the overall year.
Labour Market
The annual variation rate of employment is 2.06% (402,300 more people). The unemployment rate
stands at 13.78% in 2019. The number of unemployed in the Metal Industry registered a total of 49,725
unemployed people in the average of the year 2019, which represents a reduction of 0.2% compared
to the previous year.
Foundry Sector
There were differences in perceptions. In November 2019 some were good and others not so much.
Some plants with stops.
51
S P A I N
In November 2019, in general, all sectors were sad (industrial, agricultural, valve, railway...).
The Die and Machine Tool are loose. The trend is downward.
The Large Piece Wind Power Sector has had and has a stable demand in the medium to long term.
Uncertainty for 2020. No projects are foreseen. A drop is expected for 2020.
Stainless steel
The Paper Sector was not very good.
The Water Treatment Sector has been very strong during 2019.
The Oil & Gas Sector has decreased somewhat in the second half of the year.
2019 has been a good year. The 1st half has been good and the 2nd more motionless.
Steels Castings
The Railway sector was growing. It is a demanding sector with high quality requirements.
The Tooling has been at a good level in 2019 but some decline is expected in 2020.
Uncertainty for 2020. There is a feeling of pessimism. In overall, 2019 has been similar to 2018. Most
foundries have a highly diversified portfolio.
Non-ferrous
Aluminum foundries have produced similar to 2018. Production has had a slight positive evolution
of + 1.7%.
For Zamak there has been a decrease in 2019 compared to 2018: - 6.6%.
52
S P A I N
Ingot prices have evolved downwards, being at the end of 2019 slightly below than prices of a year
earlier (-0.82% in the case of pig iron ingot and -1.52% in the case of nodular ingot, between December
2018 and December 2019).
FeMo has suffered a sharp fall in the last year (-18.94%), while Nickel has evolved very upward
(+28.57%). The FeCr has evolved downward and ended 2019 with prices lower than those of December
2018. Ferrosilicon stone has evolved downward (-13.04%).
Energy costs: During the second half of 2019 the pool price has been very low, so the average energy
costs for 2019 have been slightly lower than those for the 2018.
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53
S W E D E N
Continued investments in automation have reduced the need for recruitment and the stagnation in the
economy with higher unemployment figures have made it somewhat easier to recruit. The industry still
has difficulties in recruiting younger and well-educated employees and further actions must be taken in
order to make the industry more relevant. During 2019 a web-based distance education package for
HPDC was launched as a result from a European project, see www.e-cast.eu
Production
The total foundry production has decreased with approximately 3 % between 2018 and 2019. The
decrease is connected to the stagnation of the Swedish economy. This stagnation started in 2018
however was not as visible in the foundry industry at the time.
In table 1 below you can see the figures for the total production (tons).
During 2019 the Swedish foundry association along with RISE and Jönköping University presented a
strategic agenda for the Swedish foundry industry in the perspective 2020 - 2035. The focus of the
agenda is to realize a sustainable Swedish foundry industry. Three focus areas have been identified in
order to fulfill the purpose namely: an attractive industry, advanced products and competitive and
sustainable production.
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54
S W I T Z E R L A N D
Thanks to outstanding innovative developments and the typically Swiss values in terms of quality,
reliability, flexibility and punctuality of delivery, the Swiss foundry industry was also able to consolidate
its good position in the international competition in 2019. In the first place, growth rates were achieved
through new orders from the entire transport sector, especially from the automotive and commercial
vehicle industry. Increasingly complex lightweight cast parts to reduce CO 2 emissions feature among
the Swiss foundry industry’s specialities. There was also an increasing number of orders received
relating to e-mobility and from the entire environmental and energy sectors for new sustainable
developments, including for drinking water supply and sanitation. The continuing boom in the building
trade at home and abroad also ensured good utilisation of production capacity.
In the first half of 2019, the order situation in the Swiss foundry industry saw a stable upward trend –
with continually moderate growth rates compared to 2018 in practically every user market. In the second
half of the year, though, the growth momentum slowed down markedly; in some member companies of
the SFA with losses in incoming orders and utilisation of production capacity of roughly 10 to 20 per cent
towards the end of last year. Altogether, in 2019 the production volume of the 45 Swiss foundry
companies merged in the interbranch organisation fell by approximately nine per cent on the previous
year to 42,160 tonnages delivered.
The drop in incoming orders reflects the downturn in the economy of the Swiss foundry industry’s key
export markets, which account for about 80 per cent of the total business volume. The significant
slowdown was caused by the trade dispute between the USA and China as well as the unresolved
Brexit.
In this environment of economic uncertainty in 2019, it was primarily major corporations that made
increasingly fewer investments. The customers from the automotive industry hugely stepped up the
pressure again for price reductions to finance the upcoming investments in the new technologies like
electromobility, autonomous and connected driving. Lightweight measures have become standard and
a commodity.
In addition to the global slump in business development, the falling margins due to the successively
repeated strengthening of the Swiss franc against the euro also had a negative impact on the annual
result.
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55
T U R K E Y
A. Macroeconomic Developments
2019 was the year of recovery for the Turkish economy after the negative macroeconomic
developments, political tensions, geopolitical risks and the changes in the global risk perception in 2018.
After three consecutive quarters of year-on-year contraction, real GDP growth resumed in the third
quarter of 2019 and strengthened in the fourth, bringing 2019 growth to 0.9 percent.
The central bank cut interest rates from 24 percent in June 2019 to 9.75 percent in March 2020. This
rapid monetary easing stimulated domestic demand which strengthened notably in the final stages of
2019. This development, together with the supported exports due to the currency depreciation aided the
recovery in GDP.
With the government’s reinforced focus on achieving high growth rates, lower borrowing rates and
related regulations boosted private sector credit growth by 10 percent. On the other hand, the substantial
minimum wage increase at the beginning of 2019, temporary indirect tax cuts and credit expansion by
public banks accelerated private consumption, which grew 6.8 percent year-on-year.
Consequently, 6.0 percent year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter yielded a 0.9 percent economic
growth in 2019. Due to the depreciation of the local currency by 13 percent, Per Capita GDP in USD
kept contracted by 5.8 percent.
Households benefited from a relative reduction in the unemployment and inflation rates, especially
during the last quarter, although both remained elevated nonetheless. Employment has declined
through 2019, despite considerable additional job creation in public and social services and the rate
dropped from 46.2 in 2018 to 45.4 percent in 2019. Seasonally adjusted data shows that the
unemployment and youth unemployment rates rose 0.2 points to 13 percent and 0.5 points to 23.9
percent relatively.
Strong domestic demand boosted import growth in the last quarter which grew 29.3 percent year-on-
year during this period. But looking at 2019 as a whole, exchange rate depreciation delivered
competitiveness gains, thus exports grew 2.1 percent year-on-year despite a 9.1 percent decrease in
imports as compared to the previous year. Manufacturing export orders from the European market have
contracted, but aggregate exports have remained positive, mainly due to tourism exports. As a result of
export growth outpacing that of imports, the annual export to import ratio increased from
75.3 to 84.6 percent in 2019, which was the highest ratio in a decade.
The current account deficit which had recorded a surplus in the third and fourth quarters of 2008 shifted
to surplus again in the second and third quarters of 2019 before returning to a deficit in the fourth quarter.
Consequently, Turkey recorded a current account surplus in 2019 for the first time in just under two
decades.
Annual consumer price index inflation declined from its peak of 25 percent in October 2018 to 8.6 percent
in October 2019, but it accelerated in the following months due to the higher seasonal factors and
unfavorable base effects which led the annual CPI to end 2019 at 11.8 percent, down from 20.3% in
2018.
After the sharp deceleration from 8.8 percent to 1.6 percent year-on-year rise in 2018, the industrial
production fell slightly by 0.7 percent year-on-year on a calendar-adjusted basis in 2019.
Except for September, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) stayed below the 50-
threshold in 2019, which was the signal of annual contraction in the industrial production. On the other
56
T U R K E Y
hand, the index remained close to 50 during the last quarter, which showed the deterioration in the
business conditions of Turkish manufacturing-sector was pretty limited.
Furthermore, the continuous increase in the real sector confidence index in the last quarter reflected
less pessimism regarding the total amount of current orders, while firms’ views on output, employment
and export orders in the first quarter of 2020 were more positive. The index reached 108.7, which was
95.4 at the beginning of the year.
In 2019, total motor vehicle production decreased by 6.5 percent and domestic sales by 35 percent
year-on-year. The decrease in passenger car production and market (4.3 and 20.4 percent, respectively)
were the main reasons for the decline in the vehicle industry. Commercial vehicle production fell by 8.6
percent, whilst tractor production by 36.6 percent.
The export volume of the general machinery industry increased by 4.2 percent, and to some extent
compensated the loss in domestic demand. The export volume grew by nearly 10.3 percent in earth-
moving machinery production where a 54.4 percent contraction was observed in the domestic market.
The domestic sales in the tractor market were also reported to shrink by 45 percent, while there was a
significant increase of 20 percent in the export numbers. Electricity motor and generator exports
recorded an increase of 25.7 percent year-on-year in 2019.
Falling demand for housing deeply impacted the construction sector. The annual drop in building permit
floor area reached 52.4 percent, and the total house sales fell by 1.9 percent. The annual production
and domestic sales of the cement industry declined by 21.4 and 29.4, respectively, while the export
volume increased by 48.8 percent.
The installed capacity in electricity production rose 2.3 percent in 2019, where the driving force was the
investments in renewable energy resources.
Production in the white goods sector remained stable in 2019 which recorded a negligible decline of 1.1
percent, owing to the export volume.
1. Industry Overview
According to the most recent statistics (i.e. AFS’s 53rd Census of World Casting Production, which was
published in December 2019), in terms of total casting production volume Turkey secured its position
as being Europe’s 3rd biggest producer; and in terms of ferrous casting production volume as being
2nd. The Turkish foundry industry sustained its growth and increased its share in the global casting
production by 34 percent in the last five years to 2 percent level (Figure 1).
57
T U R K E Y
In 2019 the total production of the Turkish foundry industry rose 2.6 percent year-on-year to 2.31 million
tons, with an export volume of 1.48 million tons.
The recession in the economic activities that started in 2018 and continued in the first half of 2019 put
pressure on domestic demand. However, the significant increase in the calendar-adjusted industrial
production in the last quarter enabled the losses to be minimized in general, and the increase in total
metal casting production continued in 2019, owing to the increase in exports despite the worldwide
recession signals and trade war tensions (Figure 2).
58
T U R K E Y
The deceleration is mainly due to the slowdown of the increase rate in nonferrous castings production,
despite a stable trend in ferrous castings.
In 2019, the total production in iron foundries recorded a slight increase as compared to 2018 but in
steel foundries, it remained stable. In total, ferrous castings production rose 1.9 percent to 1.74 million
tons.
On the other hand, the production of non-ferrous foundries was up by 4.8 percent, which makes around
570 thousand tons of production in 2019. Nearly 90 percent of it was enrolled by aluminium foundries
and the remaining was by the foundries producing other non-ferrous castings.
However, the increase in the production value of metal castings against last year continued with a loss
of acceleration in growth and reached 5.32 billion Euros (Figure 3).
Capacity utilization in ferrous foundries rose 1.46 points year-on-year to 66.6 percent in 2019. Whereas
non-ferrous foundries reported a capacity utilization of 79 percent in 2019, down from 91.3 percent in
2018.
2. Investments
In line with the volatile macroeconomic conditions in 2019, the investment amount of Turkish foundry
industry declined to 102 million Euro with a significant, 41 percent decrease as compared to the previous
year. A substantial part of the investments was put on hold and the actualized investments mainly aimed
at increasing the productivity and maintaining automation of the processes.
59
T U R K E Y
1. Iron Castings
After last year’s sharp drop, grey iron castings grew 1.9 percent year-on-year in 2019. The annual
increase in the nodular iron castings production was slightly higher, with a ratio of 2.4 percent.
Consequently, the overall iron castings production volume reached 1.55 million tons with a 2.2 percent
year-on-year increase. While the pressure on the domestic demand was the primary reason for this
trend, the global economic situation, trade tensions and the recent developments in the automotive
industry were the other key factors. Share of iron castings in total metal castings production dropped
from 67.2 to 66.9 percent in Turkey.
Iron foundries in total reported a capacity utilization of 66.6 percent, which was 64.3 percent for grey
iron castings and 69.2 percent for nodular castings.
2. Steel Castings
The steel castings production volume remained almost stable at 193 thousand tons in 2019 with capacity
utilization of 66.6 percent.
3. Non-Ferrous Castings
The investments in capacity increase, especially in HPDC foundries had yielded a strong growth in
aluminium castings for the past couple of years. In 2019, despite a decline in the growth rate, production
volume reached 504 thousand tons, registering a 6 percent growth. Capacity utilization in aluminium
foundries was 80.1 percent.
Production volume of other non-ferrous foundries dropped 3.2 percent to around 70 thousand tons with
a capacity utilization ratio of 65.2 percent in 2019.
E. Cost Development
Manufacturing costs of foundries are mostly based on foreign exchange rates due to the import of raw
materials. As compared to the significant increases in the previous year, exchange rates were stable in
2019, and relatively lower increase rates were recorded in the TL/USD and TL/EUR YoY exchange
rates, 12.9 and 10.3 percent, respectively. This upward trend, as well as the overall and casting industry
domestic PPI year-on-year changes, had continued impacts on the production costs of the metal casting
industry.
60
T U R K E Y
1. Energy
The sharp increase in both energy and gas prices sustained in 2019. In comparison with the previous
year, the electricity and natural gas market prices for industrial facilities were up on Euro basis by 25.4
and 26.2 percent, respectively (Figure 4). The energy cost of foundries was reported to increase by
17.1% on Euro basis in 2019.
2. Raw Materials
The increase in the raw material prices sustained in 2019. More than 75 percent increase in local
currency was observed in the past two years (Figure 5). Foundries reported a 17.1 percent increase in
TLs and a 4.7 percent increase in Euros in total raw materials costs.
61
T U R K E Y
3. Wages
The year-on-year change in the industrial production hourly labour cost index which was below 10
percent level in 2017, reached the highest level in ten years, 23.1 percent in 2019 (Figure 6). Foundries
reported a 10.1 percent year-on-year increase on Euro basis in total labour costs in 2019.
Due to the renewed collective agreements between the employer and employee unions in the metals
industry and the agreements to be renewed next year, the upward trend in wages is expected to continue
in line with the rising wage floor and inflation bonuses.
62
T U R K E Y
Figure 6: HOURLY INDUSTRIAL LABOUR COST INDEX YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE
**********
63
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
Economy
UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased by 1.4% in 2019, compared with forecast growth
of 1.2%, and growth of 1.3% during 2018. GDP was flat in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 (see figure
below) with growth in both services and construction offset by a fall in production, which resulted in 0.0%
GDP growth in the three months to December 2019. The rolling three-month growth weakened for the
third month in a row in December 2019.
Source:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/d
ecember2019#uk-gross-domestic-product-gdp-was-flat-in-quarter-4-oct-to-dec-2019 (1)
The UK stopped being part of the EU on the 31st January 2020 but throughout 2019 negotiations and
discussions were continuing on the withdrawal agreement leading to two extensions of the original exit
deadline (of 31st March 2019), a change in the Prime Minister in the early summer and a general election
in December. This led to considerable uncertainty throughout the year and this is reflected in some of
the UK output figures for 2019, particularly for those from the manufacturing sector.
A UK Manufacturing Review of 2019/20 (3) stated that “The past three years of navel-gazing self-
indulgence by the political classes has been a severe hindrance to Britain’s manufacturing base and its
companies, of whatever size. Whatever one feels about the outcome of December’s General Election,
at least we have a Government with a majority big enough and stable enough to get its business through
Parliament”.
64
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
The uncertainty caused by the UK’s negotiations regarding the departure from the EU can be seen from
the following report which stated: “2019 was a particularly tumultuous year, as the first two quarters of
the year saw stockpiling activities reach their highest level ever recorded anywhere in the G7 in
anticipation of our original EU exit date of March 29th. Since then, output and order performance have
suffered as a result as the early stockpiles have been gradually winding down” (4).
Even late in 2019, there was a lack of confidence in the economy as may be seen from the Purchasing
Managers Index: “The weak PMI data in the closing months of 2019 pointed to one of the worst spells
for the economy seen over the past decade, commensurate with GDP stagnating at best in the fourth
quarter. Anecdotal evidence collected via the surveys revealed how companies blamed heightened
Brexit-related uncertainty, exacerbated by political worries in the lead up to the December 12th general
election, as having dampened spending by households and businesses alike” (5).
Manufacturing output also remained low (but with some notable but temporary fluctuations at certain
points, driven by political decisions around Brexit) during the year.
Some sectors were affected more adversely than others, as a business survey reported, “The survey of
289 manufacturers found that output expanded in only six out of 17 manufacturing sectors. Aerospace
firms enjoyed a boost along with the electronic engineering sector. But the gains were more than offset
by steep falls in car production, which has suffered amid the switch to electric cars from increasingly
unpopular diesel cars, which dominate the UK’s output.” (6).
Productivity
Productivity in the UK still reportedly lags behind that of other advanced economies and there are also
regional differences in productivity levels which are now acknowledged to have contributed to
investment inequities that the UK government had pledged to address during 2020. Research carried
out by PCW (7) found that:
• Latest data suggest that UK output per worker lags around 10-15% behind Germany, France
and Sweden, and more than 30% behind the US.
• Our analysis shows that, with the partial exception of Germany, these productivity gaps are not
due to the UK having too small a manufacturing base. Instead they reflect lower average UK
productivity within certain industry sectors relative to other advanced economies.
• Comparative international evidence suggests that relatively low levels of UK investment and
R&D spending and a longer tail of companies and workers with relatively low productivity and
skills are the main reasons for this productivity shortfall in the UK relative to other advanced
economies.
Employment
Employment in the UK remained high during 2019 and fell to the lowest level for 45 years. The UK Office
for National Statistics reported that the number of people out of work fell by 13k to 1.281M by October
with employment at an all-time high of 76.2% (8).
At the start of the year economic growth was anticipated to be modest at between 1 and 1.5% for 2020(9)
but due to the global COVID-19 pandemic, forecasts are now being revised downwards on a weekly
basis and as early as April 2020 the PMI was seeing a sharp decline with collapsed demand in many
sectors(10).
65
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
Foundry Industry
2019 was generally a steady year for the UK casting and foundry industry.
In the ferrous sector, the first half of the year was generally strong for most iron foundries, with some
companies reporting their best year for some years. There was however some softening into the second
half of the year with most foundries experiencing some reduction in orders. Capacity utilisation levels
remained generally high also with continued investment in plant and equipment.
For the UK steel foundries, the first half of 2019 was generally fairly positive, with most of the foundries
reporting being busy with good levels of enquiries, many of which were translating into orders.
Production capacity was high and many were anticipating production levels at or above those not seen
for a long time in the industry. Admittedly this was in part due to a lowering of capacity in the UK, but
there were also new projects starting with customers leading to increased levels of work and lengthening
lead times. By contrast the second half of 2019 was poor when compared with the first six months, with
some foundries experiencing reduced melting and casting days and considering some short time
working into 2020. Enquiry levels were remaining good but were not translating into orders. It was clear
that there had been some stockpiling by customers earlier in the year which was now resulting in these
reduced order volumes and the end of the year was marked by limited visibility from their customers
about future orders and new projects. This sector was also marked by continued downward pressure
on prices in part due to some remaining overcapacity.
Considering the non-ferrous sector, 2019 began well with several foundries reporting that business and
production levels were at their highest, in part due to stock holding orders pre-Brexit. However, as the
year progressed there was some slow-down reported by companies supplying the automotive sector
with earlier and longer shutdown periods due to Brexit and the uncertainty and a slowdown across much
of Europe was having a significant effect during the middle part of the year. Aside from the automotive
sector, which continued to be affected by a number of issues, including declining sales in diesel vehicles,
Brexit concerns and the transition towards electric vehicles, 2019 was generally been a good year for
business but with some small reduction in production levels during the latter half of the year.
Investment casting foundries had benefited from a strong 2018 across all customer sectors, (with even
the oil and gas sector having recovered to a degree and aerospace remaining buoyant, whilst some
sectors –such as IGT and auto, including turbo-wheels - had slowed), and began 2019 with good order
books. Into the summer foundries remained busy, in spite of fears that increasing orders to enable stock-
holding in preparation for the UK leaving the EU at the end of March, might have contributed to a
slowdown in Q2; there were new projects coming into production and orders being placed. The
automotive market had slowed but the aerospace market was positive. Towards the end of the year
business was reported as being steady; there had been some slowing from the earlier part of the year
with the aerospace sector remaining busy with strong growth forecasts, and medical and commercial
looking good, although auto and boat building had slowed, and IGT still showed little improvement.
Foundries reported good order books for coming year and plenty of new design work in progress.
Many foundries reported that finding and retaining new staff continued to be a problem and that workers
from overseas, typically eastern Europe, were less inclined to come to the UK.
Several companies were taking on apprentices using the new foundry apprentice programmes – these
are supported by national government funding through an industry levy charged on larger businesses.
The apprentice training is then free for smaller companies with an annual wage bill of less than £3M per
annum.
Foundries seeking apprentice training were able to take advantage of the National Foundry Training
Centre which opened its doors in late 2018/early 2019.
Many foundries report that they struggle to find apprentices so attracting new talent into the industry
remains challenging.
66
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
During 2019, despite the general stable situation for most foundries, some foundry closures and
consolidations took place. One iron plus light alloy foundry group closed all of its three sites and a further
steel foundry group went out of business leaving only one site sold and able to remain operational –
work from these was transferred to other UK foundries in the main, plus one iron foundry also closed to
make way for a change of business activity. A light alloy foundry consolidated by reduced from two to
one manufacturing site and one diecasting facility closed.
Foundry salaries and wages were generally stable during 2019 with only modest increases of between
1 and 2.5%.
Throughout the year business costs increased but the rate of increase reduced throughout the year,
with the annual change being 3.5% at the start of the year, reducing to under 0.5% by the final quarter
of 2019.
The industry outlook for 2020 is very uncertain due the global pandemic which has affected all sectors
of the economy and all the main sectors that the UK industry supplies. In the short term some companies
are busy supplying parts for the medical sector, including ventilator components but this only applies to
a small number of castings producers. Many car plants have taken extended closures around Easter
2020, with new car registration dropping by 97% in April 2020 compared with the April 2019 (11) and car
showrooms closed. Light commercial vehicle registrations were also down over 86% in April compared
with the same month the previous year (12). At the same time the aerospace sector is facing
unprecedented uncertainty with companies such as Airbus warning that the industry may take up to 5
years to recover (13). The oil & gas sector is also dealing with a 20-year low in the oil price and a 14-year
low for gas (14) as global demand has fallen.
At present it is estimated that output many be reduced by around 30 to 40% in the UK, but this depends
on how quickly the economy is able to recover.
Sources of Information:
67
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
**********
68
TABLES
IRON, DUCTILE IRON AND STEEL CASTINGS
Table 1
Total production in 1000 t - Iron, Steel and Malleable iron castings
Table 2
Production value in Mio. € - Iron, Steel and Malleable iron castings
71
Table 3
Number of foundries (Production units) - Iron, Steel and Malleable iron castings
Table 4
Employment in the foundry industry - Iron, Steel and Malleables iron castings
72
Table 5
Direct exports total in 1000 t - Iron, Steel and Malleable iron castings
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Rep. 190,0
Denmark
Finland 20,0 23,8 25,3 21,4 14,5 -15,3 -32,6
France 620,8 471,4 451,3 433,2 448,0 -4,0 3,4
Germany 1.621,9 1.525,7 1.630,6 1.669,8 1.553,6 2,4 -7,0
Hungary 72,7 53,8 58,0 53,2 45,1 -8,2 -15,2
a) a)
Italy 406,4 488,0 473,7 520,9 488,4 10,0 -6,3
Norway 13,9 16,8 14,8 16,1 16,1 8,8 0,0
Poland 323,7 313,6 311,9 311,9 0,0
Portugal 125,0 121,4 136,7 137,0 128,0 0,3 -6,6
Slovenia
Spain 638,2 681,1 704,0 746,8 746,7 6,1 0,0
Sweden 47,7
Switzerland
Turkey 842,5 813,5 961,5 1.024,3 1.086,6 6,5 6,1
United Kingdom
Total CAEF 4.875,0 4.556,8 4.767,7 4.934,7 4.527,0 3,5 -8,3
a) revised
73
IRON CASTINGS
Table 6
Total production in 1000 t - Iron castings
Table 7
Production value in Mio. € - Iron castings
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Finland 27,9 28,7 35,4 37,7 34,4 6,6 -9,0
France
Germany b,c) 5.785,8 5.541,2 6.048,9 6.348,4 5.721,0 5,0 -9,9
Hungary
Italy
Norway 13,0 10,2 10,3 11,0 11,0 6,8 0,0
Poland
Portugal 61,9 57,6 66,3 73,6 68,1 11,0 -7,5
Slovenia
Spain b) 1.495,0 1.539,0 1.583,0 1.622,0 1.537,0 2,5 -5,2
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 722,0 675,0 745,2 607,3 626,0 -18,5 3,1
United Kingdom
Total CAEF
b) incl. nodular and malleable iron castings c) foundries >50 empl., turnover
75
Table 8
Production of iron castings in 1000 t / subdivided by the major customer industries
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2018 43,0
Austria 2019 42,3
in % -1,5
2018 69,9
Belgium 2019 55,9
in % -20,1
2018 176,5
Czech Rep. 2019 166,5
in % -5,7
2018 29,6
Denmark 2019 28,9
in % -2,6
2018 5,2 4,8 4,7 3,3 0,5 18,4
Finland 2019 3,5 4,8 1,9 8,0 18,2
in % -26,7 2,5 -42,7 1.627,2 -1,2
2018 597,4
France 2019 537,2
in % -10,1
2018 517,6 1.656,2 261,9 2.435,6
Germany 2019 416,9 1519,0 256,9 2192,8
in % -19,5 -8,3 -1,9 -10,0
2018 22,0
Hungary 2019 18,4
in % -16,5
2018 b) b) 37,5 15,0 359,2 257,2 98,7 767,6
Italy 2019 31,9 13,8 319,0 222,8 80,4 667,8
in % -8,0 -11,2 -13,4 -18,5 -13,0
2018 6,5 0,3 2,1 8,8
Norway 2019 6,5 0,3 2,1 8,8
in % 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
2018 480,0
Poland 2019 450,0
in % -6,3
2018 1,3 1,7 1,3 36,2 2,9 43,4
Portugal 2019 5,0 1,2 1,6 1,3 34,3 2,8 41,1
in % -10,0 -9,0 -5,4 -5,2 -2,6 -5,3
2018 106,5
Slovenia 2019 130,5
in % 22,5
2018 357,6
Spain 2019 362,6
in % 1,4
2018 161,7
Sweden 2019 154,9
in % -4,2
2018 36,7
Switzerland 2019 9,3
in % -74,7
2018 10,0 10,0 65,0 20,0 15,0 210,0 233,0 40,0 603,0
Turkey 2019 12,3 12,0 66,3 21,1 16,1 213,0 230,9 42,8 614,3
in % 22,6 19,7 2,1 5,6 7,0 1,4 -0,9 6,9 1,9
76
Table 9
Number of foundries (Production units) - Iron castings (incl. nodular and malleable castings)
Table 10
Employment in the foundry industry - Iron castings (incl. nodular and malleable castings)
Austria
b) b)
Belgium 570 570
Bulgaria
Croatia 2.125
Czech Rep. 7.000
Denmark 914 1.095 1.047
Finland 778 768 741 800 724 8,0 -9,5
France 10.894 10.370
Germany a) 36.530 35.170 35.006 35.398 34.120 1,1 -3,6
Hungary
c) c)
Italy 10.969 6.984 6.869 6.990 6.736 1,8 -3,6
Norway 660 743 640
Poland 12.600 12.500 12.500 12.500 12.500 0,0 0,0
Portugal 1.584 1.762 1.815 1.848 2.064 1,8 11,7
Slovenia 1.110
Spain 8.176 8.585 8.752 8.600 8.800 -1,7 2,3
Sweden 3.477
Switzerland 984 951 910 -4,3
Turkey 16.000 13.520 14.000 13.600 13.600 -2,9 0,0
United Kingdom
Total CAEF 98.761 105.472 81.418 80.687 81.611 -0,9 1,1
a) foundries >50 employees, end of the year b) only workers c) ISTAT
77
Table 11
Direct exports total in 1000 t - Iron castings (incl. nodular iron castings)
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Finland 18,1 22,6 23,8 18,5 12,9 -22,4 -30,4
a) a)
France 602,8 450,8 432,4 409,4 429,2 -5,3 4,8
a) a) a) a) a)
Germany 1.544,4 1.450,5 1.551,4 1.589,0 2.184,7 2,4 37,5
Hungary 71,1 51,7 55,9
Italy
Norway 13,5 16,8 14,8 16,1 16,1 8,8 0,0
Poland 307,6 297,0 295,9 295,0 -0,3
Portugal 118,0 115,7 132,5 133,3 124,3 0,6 -6,8
Slovenia
a) a)
Spain 548,2 631,7 655,2 696,4 693,0 6,3 -0,5
Sweden 46,9
Switzerland
Turkey 750,0 680,0 833,5 875,8 936,8 5,1 7,0
United Kingdom
Total CAEF 3.973,7 3.763,8 3.995,5 4.033,5 4.396,9 1,0 9,0
a) incl. malleable iron castings
78
DUCTILE IRON CASTINGS
Table 12
Total production in 1000 t - Ductile iron castings (Nodular and Malleable iron castings)
Table 13
Production value in Mio. € - Ductile iron castings (Nodular and Malleable iron castings)
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Finland 71,4 70,1 54,7 89,2 71,5 63,1 -19,8
France
a) a) a) a) a)
Germany
Hungary
Italy 1.602,6
Norway 53,0 46,6 55,5 25,0 25,0 -55,0 0,0
Poland
Portugal 147,6 152,3 155,4 150,4 143,5 -3,2 -4,6
Slovenia
a) a) a) a)
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 860,0 885,0 1.155,0 1.304,5 1.382,5 12,9 6,0
United Kingdom
Total CAEF
a) contained in: Tab. 7
80
Table 14
Production of Ductile iron castings (Nodular and Malleable iron castings) in 1000 t
subdivided by the major customer industries
1 2 3 4
2018 109,7
Austria 2019 104,7
in % -4,6
2018 7,8
Belgium 2019 5,1
in % -34,8
2018 57,0
Czech Rep. 2019 50,0
in % -12,3
2018 61,9
Denmark 2019 58,1
in % -6,2
2018 20,4 13,7 2,0 36,2
Finland 2019 19,6 9,6 11,0 29,3
in % -3,8 -29,7 440,3 -19,0
2018 682,1
France 2019 711,4
in % 4,3
a)
2018 538,6 661,7 435,7 1.636,0
Germany 2019 469,3 554,5 409,8 1.433,7
in % -12,9 -16,2 -5,9 -12,4
2018 63,4
Hungary 2019 55,6
in % -12,3
2018 49,8 229,2 131,1 18,5 428,6
Italy 2019 43,2 208,8 116,1 13,1 556,2
in % -13,2 -8,9 -11,4 -29,3 29,8
2018 2,2 20,1 22,3
Norway 2019 2,2 20,1 22,3
in % 0,0 0,0 0,0
2018 160,0
Poland 2019 155,0
in % -3,1
2018 6,0 0,9 87,6 2,2 96,8
Portugal 2019 8,4 1,1 82,8 2,1 94,4
in % 40,1 17,6 -5,5 -3,1 -2,4
2018 46,6
Slovenia 2019 46,7
in % 0,2
2018 711,6
Spain 2019 663,0
in % -6,8
2018 64,0
Sweden 2019 62,0
in % -3,1
2018 22,1
Switzerland 2019 14,7
in % -33,5
2018 123,0 263,4 412,0 114,5 912,9
Turkey 2019 127,7 270,4 414,7 121,6 934,4
in % 3,8 2,7 0,6 6,2 2,4
2018 219,5
United Kingdom 2019 220,5
in % 0,4
a) contained in: Pos. 4
81
STEEL CASTINGS
Table 15
Total production in 1000 t - Steel castings
Table 16
Production value in Mio. € - Steel castings
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Finland 85,5 60,7 66,3 76,1 71,9 14,8 -5,6
France
Germany a) 1.199,4 1.090,6 1.102,8 1.154,3 1137,2 4,7 -1,5
Hungary
Italy 452,8
Norway 10,0
Poland
Portugal 53,5 54,0 42,7 41,6 41,6 -2,7 0,1
Slovenia
Spain 367,0 345,0 339,0 327,0 376,0 -3,5 15,0
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 345,0 401,3 510,0 574,8 619,7 12,7 7,8
United Kingdom
Total CAEF
a) foundries >50 employees, turnover
83
Table 17
Production of steel castings in 1000 t / subdivided by the major customer industries
1 2 3 4
2018 11,4
Austria 2019 11,4
in % 0,0
2018 7,5
Belgium 2019 6,6
in % -11,4
2018 62,0
Czech Rep. 2019 52,0
in % -16,1
2018 9,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 10,1
Finland 2019 5,1 0,4 4,9 10,4
in % 3,0
2018 60,4
France 2019 55,7
in % -7,8
2018 47,7 13,3 123,7 184,7
Germany 2019 47,0 13,6 117,9 178,5
in % -1,4 1,7 -4,7 -3,4
2018 2,8
Hungary 2019 2,2
in % -22,4
2018 8,6 3,3 1,3 43,6 a) 56,9
Italy 2019 10,5 3,0 1,4 44,9 59,9
in % 21,8 -10,0 7,9 3,0 5,2
2018 50,0
Poland 2019 50,0
in % 0,0
2018 2,6 0,3 0,2 2,2 5,3
Portugal 2019 2,3 0,3 0,1 2,2 4,9
in % -11,4 4,4 -26,2 0,0 -6,2
2018 2,1
Slovenia 2019
in % -100,0
2018 66,6
Spain 2019 71,4
in % 7,2
2018 22,9
Sweden 2019 23,5
in % 2,6
2018 2,3
Switzerland 2019 2,3
in % 4,0
2018 70,4 21,0 26,0 75,0 192,4
Turkey 2019 70,4 21,1 26,0 75,0 192,5
in % 0,0 0,6 -0,2 0,0 0,1
2018 49,2
United Kingdom 2019 49,2
in % 0,0
a) incl. mining industry, building and domestic goods and steel industry
84
Table 18
Number of foundries (Production units) - Steel castings
Table 19
Number of persons employed total - Steel castings
Austria
Belgium 496
Bulgaria
Croatia 168
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Finland 576 474 577 563 540 -2,4 -4,1
France 3.100 3.050
Germany a) 7.439 6.674 6.768 6.621 6.459 -2,2 -2,4
Hungary
b) b)
Italy 2.580 2.369 2.313 2.258 2.304 -2,4 2,0
Norway 123 107
Poland 3.600 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 0,0 0,0
Portugal 614 619 825 596 518 -27,8 -13,1
Slovenia 352
Spain 2.325 2.395 2.318 2.328 2.362 0,4 1,5
Sweden 1.269
Switzerland 132 130 107 102 -17,7 -4,7
Turkey 6.500 6.500 6.500 6.500 6.500 0,0 0,0
United Kingdom
Total CAEF 26.857 27.753 22.931 22.825 22.285 -0,5 -2,4
a) foundries >50 empl. b) ISTAT
85
Table 20
Direct exports total in 1000 t - Steel castings
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Finland 1,8 1,1 1,5 2,9 1,6 100,2 -45,8
France 18,0 20,6 19,0 23,8 18,8 25,5 -21,0
Germany 77,5 75,2 79,1 80,8 83,9 2,1 3,9
Hungary 1,6 2,1 2,1
Italy
Norway 0,4
Poland 15,0 15,7 16,0 16,0 0,0
Portugal 7,0 5,7 4,1 3,7 3,7 -9,5 -1,4
Slovenia
Spain 54,0 49,4 48,8 50,4 53,7 3,2 6,7
Sweden 0,9
Switzerland
Turkey 115,0 125,5 128,0 140,5 149,8 9,8 6,6
United Kingdom
Total CAEF 290,3 296,1 298,5 318,1 311,6 6,6 -2,1
86
NON-FERROUS METAL CASTINGS
Table 21
Total production in 1000 t - Non-ferrous metal castings
Table 22
Production value in Mio. € - Non-ferrous metal castings
88
Table 23
Number of foundries (Production units) - Non-ferrous metal castings
thereof:
Table 24
Employment in the foundry industry - Non-ferrous metal castings
89
COPPER ALLOY CASTINGS
Table 25
Total production in t - Copper alloy castings
Table 26
Production value in Mio. € - Copper alloy castings
91
Table 27
Copper alloy castings in t
2018 20.500
Czech Rep. 2019 20.000
in % -2,4
2018 1.285
Denmark 2019 1.188
in % -7,5
2018 674 1.504 905 3.031 3.031
Finland 2019 3.124 622 1.567 935 3.124 3.124
in % -7,7 4,2 3,3 3,1 3,1
2018 19.307
France 2019 17.409
in % -9,8
2018 37.615 287 29 78.962 79.278
Germany 2019 35.916 154 28 77.043 77.225
in % -4,5 -46,3 -3,9 -2,4 -2,6
2018 705
Hungary 2019 483
in % -31,5
2018 69.729
Italy 2019 66.438
in % -4,7
2018 a)
Norway 2019 a)
in %
2018 6.100 b)
Poland 2019 6.000
in % -1,6
2018 1.800 2.360 12.336 1.700 14.796 16.496
Portugal 2019 0 2.000 2.360 12.694 1.900 12.694 17.054
in % 11,1 0,0 2,9 11,8 -14,2 3,4
2018 755,0
Slovenia 2019 872,0
in % 15,5
2018 14.400
Spain 2019 14.634
in % 1,6
2018 8.792
Sweden 2019
in % -100,0
2018 2.086,0 2.086
Switzerland 2019 2131,0 2.131
in % 2,2 2,2
2018 15.750 4.250 3.750 1.750 6.000 6.209 5.500 3.250 30.709
Turkey 2019 14.808 4.111 3.524 1.510 5.663 6.042 5.313 3.122 29.285
in % -6,0 -3,3 -6,0 -13,7 -5,6 -2,7 -3,4 -3,9 -4,6
2018 8.670
United Kingdom 2019 8.650
in % -0,2
a) only 2 foundries
= no data collection
b) estimated
92
LIGHT AND ULTRALIGHT CASTINGS
Table 28
Total production in t - Light and ultralight castings
Table 29
Production value in Mio. € - Light and ultralight castings
94
Table 30
Light and ultralight castings
in t
Aluminium Magnesium
95
ZINC
Table 31
Total production in t - Zinc
Table 32
Production value in Mio. € - Zinc
97
Table 33
Zinc in t
general automotive
Country Year Pressure die casting other Total Production
engineering industry
2018 1.200
Czech Rep. 2019 1.000
in % -16,7
2018 100 100
Finland 2019
in %
2018 24.854
France 2019 24.486
in % -1,5
2018 59.252 121 1.395 57.689 59.205
Germany 2019 131 1.582 55.469 57.182
in % 8,2 13,4 -3,8 -3,4
2018 1.610
Hungary 2019 763
in % -52,6
2018 73.303
Italy 2019 74.036
in % 1,0
2018 7.500 a)
Poland 2019 7.500
in % 0,0
2018 2.440 2.440
Portugal 2019 2464,0 2.464
in % 1,0 1,0
2018 8.510
Slovenia 2019 9.665
in % 13,6
2018 9.020
Spain 2019 8.426
in % -6,6
2018 1.118
Switzerland 2019 1.051
in % -6,0
2018 6.025 10.500 23.500 40.025
Turkey 2019 6.078 10.252 23.102 39.432
in % 0,9 -2,4 -1,7 -1,5
2018 8.085
United Kingdom 2019 8.090
in % 0,1
a) estimated
98
OTHER ALLOY CASTINGS
Table 34
Total production in t - Other alloy castings
100
WORLD PRODUCTION
Table 35
World production 2018, selected countries - Iron and Steel castings in t
Nodular Malleable
Iron Steel
Country iron iron Total
castings castings
castings castings
Source: Modern Casting, data can differ from CAEF data A) Included with ductile iron
* 2017 Results B) All nonferrous
** 2016 Results C) Includes zinc
*** 2015 Results D) Includes all iron
102
Table 36
World Production 2018 selected countries - Non-ferrous metal castings in t
Source: Modern Casting, data can differ from CAEF A) Included with
data ductile iron
* 2017 Results B) All nonferrous
** 2016 Results C) Includes zinc
D) Includes all
*** 2015 Results iron
103
GRAPHS
Production of Iron, Ductile Iron and Steel Castings
in the European Foundry Industry 2019 (in 1.000 t)
Germany
Turkey
France
Spain
Italy
Poland
UK
Czech Republic
Sweden
Slovenia
Austria
Portugal
Denmark
Belgium
Hungary
Finland
Bulgaria*
Croatia**
Norway
Switzerland
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
* 2017, ** 2016
Germany
Italy
Turkey
France
Poland
UK
Spain
Austria
Hungary
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Sweden
Portugal
Croatia**
Switzerland
Norway
Finland
Denmark
Belgium
0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200
** 2016
105
Iron Castings for the Vehicle Industry
National Production Share 2019 (in %)
Portugal
Germany
France**
Turkey
UK**
Italy
Finland
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
** 2016
Portugal
Hungary*
UK**
Turkey
Germany
Finland
France**
Italy
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
* 2017, ** 2016
106
Iron Castings for Engineering Plant and Machinery
National Production Share 2019 (in %)
Italy
Turkey
France**
UK**
Finland
Germany
Norway
Portugal
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
** 2016
Finland
Italy
Hungary*
Germany
Turkey
UK**
Norway
France**
Portugal
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
* 2017, ** 2016
107
Average Production per Employee – Iron, Steel and Malleable Iron Castings
240
Production 1 Mio. t
220
Germany
200
Sweden
Average Employee per Foundry
180
160 Spain
Czech Rep. Austria
140
Belgium
Denmark
120
20
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Average Production per Employee (in t)
Average Production per Foundry – Iron, Steel and Malleable Iron Castings
240
Production 1 Mio. t
220
200
Sweden
Average Employee per Foundry
180
Germany
160 Spain
Czech Rep. Austria
140
Belgium
Denmark
120
0
0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000
Average Production per Foundry (in t)
108
Production of Light and Ultralight Castings
in the European Foundry Industry 2019 (in t)
Germany
Italy
Turkey
France
Poland
UK
Austria
Spain
Hungary
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Sweden
Portugal
Croatia**
Switzerland
Norway
Bulgaria*
Denmark
Finland
Belgium
0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000 900.000 1.000.000 1.100.000
* 2017, ** 2016
Germany
Italy
UK
Sweden*
Turkey
Czech Republic
Hungary
109
Average Production per Employee – Non-Ferrous Metal Castings
180
Average Employee per Foundry
160 Hungary
140
240
Production 100.000 t
220
Austria
200
Average Employee per Foundry
180 Hungary
160
140
Sweden
Czech Rep.
120
110
CAEF - The European Foundry Association
Commission for economics & statistics
caef.eu
c/o Bundesverband der Deutschen Gießerei-Industrie
Hansaallee 203, 40549 Düsseldorf, Germany
[email protected], www.caef.eu
ELEN - Fotolia