Pakistan Meteorological Department

Drought Bulletin
Of
Pakistan

May2021
Highlights
• Rainfall for the month of May 2021 was less thannormal in the northern parts of the
country while isolated areas in Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan receive above normal
rainfall and rest of the areas received below normal rainfall. The Chief amounts of
monthly rainfall recorded are shown in Table:1.

• During the month of June2021, Near Normal precipitation is expected over the country.
Rise in temperatures in high altitudes are likely to cause snowmelt in the Northern Areas
subsequently the chances of increase in water availability in the Upper Indus basin and
some GLOF events over the Glaciers. Heat wave conditions may arise in major cities of
Sindh and south Punjab during June, 2021.

• Precipitation during the month of May 2021 was not good enough for drought prone areas
of Balochistanand Sindh.

• Moderate to severe Drought Conditions are prevailing over NW areas of Balochistan and
S.E Sindh. The disaster management authorities may continue surveillance in these areas
and plan DRM activities plan accordingly.

National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC)

Headquarters Office, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad
Tel : + (92-51) 9250598, Fax: + (92-51) 9250368, URL: http://www.pmd.gov.pk

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 Table of Contents
S.No. Contents
1 Weather Summary of the period

2 Drought Situation Analysis

I. Normal and Actual Monthly Rainfall Comparison

II. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

III. Land Surface Temperature (LST)

IV. Temperature Vegetation Index (TVDI)

V. Length of Consecutive Dry Days Spell

3 Water availability/ Dams flow data

4 Weather outlook for June, 2021

5 Drought Outlook for June, 2021

6 Crop Condition

7 Advice for Farmers

This Bulletin is regularly being published on monthly basis under the guidance of
Dr.Azmat Hayat Khan, Chief Meteorologist, Pakistan Meteorological Department.

Chief Editor: Dr.Shahzada Adnan

Meteorologist
National Drought Monitoring Center (NDMC), Islamabad

Editor: Nasir Yaseen, Assist. Meteorologist, NDMC, Islamabad

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 1. Weather Summary for the month of May, 2021
During the month of May2021, rainfall received across Pakistan is shown in Fig.1.
Light to Moderate rainfall events were reported at most places in Azad Jammu and
Kashmir, Khyber Paktunkhawa and few parts in upper Punjabwhile rest of the
country received light to no rainfall comprising Gilgit Baltistan and isolated areas in
Punjab, Sindh and Blochistan. The Chief amounts of monthly rainfall recorded
across Pakistan during May, 2021 is shown in Table:1

Figure 1: Rainfall distribution for the month of Figure 2: Percentage Departure of Rainfall for the
May-2021 month of May-2021

The Fig. 2 depicts the Percentage Departure of Rainfall from the normal. Above
Normal rainfall was received in most areas of KP and few in Punjab, Sindh and
Balochistan as well while below normal at Giglt Baltistan and areas of Sindh and
Balochistan.

Table:1
Sr.No. Station Rainfall(mm) Sr.No. Station Rainfall(mm)
1 Rawalakot 157.4 11 Garhi Dupatta 72.8
2 Bandi Abbaspur 146.6 12 Chattar Kalas 70.3
3 Malam Jabba 141.0 13 Mianwali Airbase 70.0
4 Chakothi 133.5 14 Kohat Airbase 70.0
5 Saidu Sharif 110.0 15 Panjera 69.8
6 Buner 104.0 16 Kakul 62.7
7 Murree 97.0 17 Brarkot 60.8
8 Tandali 88.5 18 Balakot 60.0
9 Dir 85.6 19 Fort Munro 60.0
10 Hajira 82.2 20 Kotli 58.6

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2. Drought Situation Analysis

Spatial drought analysis results using different indices are represented in Fig. 3.
In Balochistan, District Chagi, Kharan, Panjgor, Awaran, Washuk and Kech are
facing Moderate while Gawadar Severe Drought Conditions.
In Sindh Province , District Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas and Sangar are
facing Moderate Drought while Badin, Thatta, Sajawal, Hyderabad,
Khairpur,Larkana, facing Moderate and Dadu, Nawabshah, Jamshoro are facing
Mild Drought Conditions.

Figure 3: Analysis for Drought conditions of Pakistan

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I. Monthly Actual to Normal Rainfall Comparison for May-2021

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II. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

values for the month of May2021 are
shown in Fig.4. NDVI conditions in Khyber
Pakhtunkhawa, Punjab and along the Indus
belt are good, depicting the impacts of well
distributed rainfall during the month.
Vegetation index is minimum over
easternSindh and most parts of

Figure 4: NDVI during 12-27 May, 2021 Balochistan.

III. Land Surface Temperature (LST)

Land Surface Temperatures (LST) for the

period 12– 19 May, 2021 are represented
by Fig. 5. In the central parts of the
country, average daytime temperatures
remained between 25oC to 35oC while
atlower parts of the country,the
temperature reaches above 40oC.

Figure 5: LST (°C) during 12-19May, 2021

LandSurface Temperatures during the

period 20 – 27, May2021 are shown in
Fig. 6. A slightincreasing trend in
temperatures has been observed in most
parts of the country as compared to the
previous week.

Figure 6: LST (°C) during 20-27May, 2021

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IV. Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI)

Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index

(TVDI) derived from MODIS product
MOD13A2 (NDVI) and MOD11A2 (LST) is
shown in Fig. 7, which indicates mild to
moderate wet conditions in Gilgit Baltistan
and adjoining areas of Khyber
Pakhtunkhawa & Kashmir, while western
parts of Balochistan are under moisture
stress.

Figure 7: TVDI for period 12 - 27May -2021

V.Length of Consecutive Dry Days Spell

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3. Water availability/ Dams flow data:

During the month of May2021, water inflow, outflow and level of Rawal, Khanpur,
Tarbela and Mangla dams are shown in Fig.8& 9. An increasing& decreasing trends
in inflow and water level has been observed in Terbela and Mangla dams.

Figure 8: Water inflow, outflow and level of Rawal and Khanpur Dams

Figure 9: Water inflow, outflow and level of Tarbela and Mangla Dams

4. Weather outlook forJune2021

Generally, June is the hottest and driest month except some pre-monsoon
showers during the month. Usually northern parts of the country first experience the
onset of monsoon and hence the probability of occurrence of rain over northern
parts of Punjab is greater than other parts of the country.Due to the intense heating
and relatively clearer skies, the evaporative demand of atmosphere will increase

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sharply. Mean maximum temperature may remain above 40 °C over most of the
agricultural plains of the country.Gusty wind and dust storms will be the normal
phenomena during the month.

5. Drought Outlook for May 2021

The month of May was not good for drought prone areas of Balochistan and
Sindh. In Balochistan, District Chagi, Kharan, Panjgor, Awaran, Washuk and
Kech are facing Moderate while Gawadar facing Severe Drought Conditions.
In Sindh Province , District Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas and Sangar are
facing Moderate Drought while Badin, Thatta, Sajawal, Hyderabad,
Khairpur,Larkana, facing Moderate and Dadu, Nawabshah, Jamshoro are facing
Mild Drought Conditions.

Fig-10: Conditions across Balochistan Fig:11 Drought Conditions across Sindh

Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) Comparison:

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 All stakeholders are requested to make all efforts to watch water
availability situation across rain-fed areas of Sindh and Balochistan especially
in drought affected areas and plan DRM activities accordingly.

5. Crop Condition:
The Kharif Crops season varies by region, starting at the earliest May-June.
Kharif crops are usually sown at the beginning of the first rains during the advent of
the south-west monsoon season, and they are harvested at the end of monsoon
season (October). Depending on the region,Sunflower is at the Maturity stage in
Sindh. Sugercane is at Tillering stage. Threshing of rape Mustard is completed. No
serious pest/insect attack has been reported so far.

7. Advice for Farmers:

i) Farmers of upper & central parts of the country are advised to complete the
harvesting process at earliest possible and save the crop and fodder to avoid
any weather induced loss from rains and strong winds during the month

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 iiI) Farmers of the lower half of the country are advised to irrigate the fields
for the Kharif crops as per requirement keeping in view the forecast in those
areas.

ii) During the harvesting, farmers are advised to keep themselves abreast
ofthe weather conditions and keep listening & watching carefully the weather
advisories issued through radio and televisions on a regular basis.

Pakistan Meteorological Department, Sector H-8/2, IslamabadPh: 051-9250598, Fax: 051-9250368

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