Sta 101 Dr.

Mukherjee
Fall 16 Dec 19, 2016

Final (Version A)
Last Name: First Name:

I hereby state that I have not communicated with or gained information in any way from my classmates
during this exam, and that all work is my own.

Signature :

Any potential violation of Duke’s policy on academic integrity will be reported to Undergrad-
uate Conduct Board. All work on this exam must be your own.

1. You have 3 hours to complete the exam.

2. Show all your work on the open ended questions in order to get partial credit. No credit will be given for open
ended questions where no work is shown, even if the answer is correct.
3. Mark the answers to the multiple choice and true/false questions by filling in the bubbles provided below. If
you choose more than one answer, you will not receive any credit for that question. No partial credit will be
given for multiple choice questions.
4. You are allowed a calculator, however you may not share a calculator with another student during the exam,
one 8 12 ” × 11” sheet of notes (“cheat sheet”) with writing on both sides, pen or a pencil, a dictionary, and to
ask questions to me or the TA.
5. You are not allowed a cell phone, even if you intend to use it as a calculator or for checking the time, music
device or headphones, notes (other than the one 8 12 ” × 11” sheet), books, or other resources, and to communicate
with anyone other than myself during the exam.
6. Write clearly. Short answers are best!

Good luck!

Question #1 / 15 Match the following #6-10 /5

Question #2 / 10 Fill in the blanks #11-15 / 10
Question #3 / 15 True / False #16-25 / 10
Question #4 / 10 Multiple Choice #26-35 / 20
Question #5 /5 TOTAL / 100
 1. Car window – skin cancer? - 15 points
A recent study suggests that exposure to UV rays through the car window may increase the risk of
skin cancer.1 The study reviewed the records of all 1,047 skin cancer patients referred to the St. Louis
University Cancer Center in 2004, some of which had melanoma (a type of skin cancer).
(a) (8) Of the 42 patients with melanoma, the cancer occurred on the left side of the body in 31
patients and on the right side in the other 11. Using α = 0.05, test whether these data provide
evidence that melanoma is found more often on the left side of the body. Clearly define your
parameter(s) of interest, the sample statistic(s), state your hypotheses, check the conditions,
calculate a p-value, give a conclusion, and interpret the results in context.

(b) (1) The same study also collected information on the gender of the patients. Of the patients with
melanoma on the left 17 were male, and of the patients with melanoma on the right 5 were male.
Using this information, fill in the cells of the following contingency table.

Location of melanoma

Left Right Total

Gender Male 17 5 22
of patient Female 14 6 20
Total 31 11 42

1
Susan T. Butler, Scott W. Fosko, Increased prevalence of left-sided skin cancers, Journal of the American Academy of
Dermatology, Volume 63, Issue 6, December 2010.

1
(c) (3) Assume there is no association between location of melanoma and gender. By drawing on
the bar chart below, indicate what a segmented bar chart would look like under this assumption.
Be sure to indicate which regions represent melanoma on the left and right sides, and show your
calculations for calculating the heights of those regions.
(d) (2) Which of the following method(s) can be used to test for the relationship between gender of
patient and location of melanoma? Circle all that apply. Only select tests where conditions are
met.

I. ANOVA V. Randomization test

II. Chi-squared goodness of fit VI. Simple linear regression
III. F-test VII. T-test
IV. Multiple linear regression VIII. Z-test

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2. Body measurements - 10 points
Researchers studying anthropometry collected body girth measurements and skeletal diameter measure-
ments, as well as age, weight, height and gender for 507 physically active individuals. The scatterplot
below shows the relationship between height and shoulder girth (over deltoid muscles), both measured
in centimeters.
200

190

Height (cm) 180

170

160

150

90 100 110 120 130

Shoulder girth (cm)

The mean shoulder girth is 107.20 cm with a standard deviation of 10.37 cm. The mean height is
171.14 cm with a standard deviation of 9.41 cm. The correlation between height and shoulder girth is
0.67.
(a) (4) Calculate the slope b1 and intercept b0 and interpret in the context of the data.

(b) (1) Fill in the blanks: The regression line can be written as

\ = 105.96 + 0.608 × shouldergirth

height

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(c) (2) Calculate R2 of the regression line for predicting height from shoulder girth, and interpret it
in the context of the application.

(d) (1) A randomly selected student from your class has a shoulder girth of 100 cm. Predict the
height of this student using the model

(e) (1) The student from part (d) is 160 cm tall. Calculate the residual, and explain what this
residual means.

(f) (1) A one year old has a shoulder girth of 56 cm. Would it be appropriate to use this linear
model to predict the height of this child?

4
 3. Body fat percentage - 15 points
Body fat percentage can be complicated to estimate, while variables such age, height, weight, and
measurements of various body parts are easy to measure. Based on data2 on body fat percentage and
other various easy to obtain measurements, we develop a model to predict body fat percentage based
on the following variables:

- age (years) - abdomen circumference (cm) - forearm circumference (cm)

- weight (pounds) - hip circumference (cm) - wrist circumference (cm)
- neck circumference (cm) - thigh circumference (cm)

The plot below shows the relationship between each of these variables and body fat percentage (the
response variable) as well as the correlation coefficients between these variables:
20 40 60 80 35 45 90 110 140 22 26 30 34

30
bf_perc

0
60

0.29 age
20

350
0.61 weight

150
50

0.49 0.11
0.83 neck
35

140
0.81 0.23
0.89 0.75 abdomen

80
90 130

0.63 0.05

0.94 0.73 0.87 hip

80
0.56 0.20
0.87 0.70 0.77 0.90 thigh

50
22 30

0.36 0.085

0.63 0.62 0.50 0.55 0.57 forearm

20
0.35 0.21
0.73 0.74 0.62 0.63 0.56 0.59 wrist

16
0 20 40 150 250 350 80 120 50 70 16 18 20

And the following are the model outputs associated with this analysis:
Regression Summary Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) ANOVA Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
(Intercept) -20.062 10.847 -1.850 0.066 age 1 1260.93 1260.93 80.21 0.0000
age 0.059 0.028 2.078 0.039 weight 1 5738.41 5738.41 365.04 0.0000
weight -0.084 0.037 -2.277 0.024 neck 1 153.37 153.37 9.76 0.0020
neck -0.432 0.208 -2.077 0.039 abdomen 1 3758.51 3758.51 239.09 0.0000
abdomen 0.877 0.067 13.170 0.000 hip 1 6.42 6.42 0.41 0.5234
hip -0.186 0.128 -1.454 0.147 thigh 1 122.04 122.04 7.76 0.0058
thigh 0.286 0.119 2.397 0.017 forearm 1 79.91 79.91 5.08 0.0251
forearm 0.483 0.173 2.797 0.006 wrist 1 139.46 139.46 8.87 0.0032
wrist -1.405 0.472 -2.978 0.003 Residuals 243 3819.99 15.72
Total 251 15079.02

Residual standard error: 3.965 on 243 degrees of freedom

F-statistic: 89.53 on 8 and 243 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

2
Penrose, K., Nelson, A., and Fisher, A. (1985), Generalized Body Composition Prediction Equation for Men Using Simple Measurement Techniques, Medicine
and Science in Sports and Exercise, 7(2), 189.

5
(a) (2) Which of the following is not supported by information provided in the model outputs above?
i. The sample size is 252.
ii. All else held constant, for each additional cm the forearm circumference is higher, body fat
percentage is expected to be higher by 0.483 percentage points.
iii. All else held constant, people with wider hips tend to have lower body fat percentages.
iv. Wrist circumference is the most significant predictor of body fat percentage since the slope
associated with this variable has the highest magnitude.
v. The F-test for the significance of the model overall suggests that at least one of the slope
coefficients is significantly different than 0.

(b) (2) What is the adjusted R2 for this model? Choose the closest answer.
i. 0.2286
ii. 0.2617
iii. 0.7467
iv. 0.7548
v. 0.7383

(c) (2) If we were to remove one variable from the model, which of the following values would not
change in the ANOVA table? Check all that apply.
□ DfResiduals : 243
□ DfT otal : 251
□ SumSqResiduals : 3819.99
□ SumSqT otal : 15079.02

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(d) (3) Investigate if these data provide convincing evidence that age and body fat percentage are
significantly positively related. Answer the following questions for your investigation.

- Provide the p-value for the above hypothesis testing:

- Based on the above hypothesis test, what is your decision? (Circle one below, assume
α = 0.05)

Reject H0 Fail to Reject H0

- Can you conclude from the p-value above that age and body fat percentage are significantly
positively related? (Circle one below)
Yes . No.

(e) (4) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the slope of abdomen circumference and interpret it
in context of the data.

(f) (2) Upon a closer look at the model, your friend questions “The coefficient for weight is negative?
and significant? That doesn’t make any sense! How can this be possible?”. How would you
respond?

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4. Barking deer - 10 points
Microhabitat factors associated with forage and bed sites of barking deer in Hainan Island, China were
examined from 2001 to 2002. In this region woods make up 4.8% of the land, cultivated grass plot
makes up 14.7%, and deciduous forests makes up 39.6%. Of the 426 sites where the deer forage, 4
were categorized as woods, 16 as cultivated grassplot, and 61 as deciduous forests. The table below
summarizes these data.
Woods Cultivated grassplot Deciduous forests Other Total
4 16 61 345 426
(a) (1) Write the hypotheses for testing if barking deer prefer to forage in certain habitats over others.

(b) (1) What type of test can we use to answer this research question?

(c) (2) Calculate the expected counts for Woods, Cultivated grassplot, Deciduous forests and Other.

(d) (1.5) Check if the assumptions and conditions required for this test are satisfied.

1. Independence: We are told / not told (Circle one) if these plots are sampled randomly.
2. Sample size: All expected / observed counts (Circle one) are greater than .

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(e) (2.5) Investigate if these data provide convincing evidence that barking deer prefer to forage in
certain habitats over others. Given that Chi-squared test statistic value is 284.93 for the hypoth-
esis test in part (a), calculate the following:

- What is the contribution of “Deciduous forests” in the Chi-squared test statistic? (Show your
work)

- degrees of freedom:

- p – value:

(f) (2) Based on the p–value above, what is the decision and conclusion of the test, in the context
of the data? (α = 0.05)

- Decision: Reject H0 Fail to Reject H0 (Circle one)

- Conclusion:

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5. Drug testing - 5 pts
Most companies drug test their employees before they start employment, and sometimes regularly
during their employment as well. Suppose that a drug test for an illegal drugs is 97% accurate in the
case of a user of that drug, and 92% accurate in the case of a non-user for that drug. Suppose also
that 5% of the entire population uses that drug.
(a) (1) You are the hiring manager at a company that drug tests their employees. You have recently
decided to hire a new employee. What is the prior probability that this employee is a user of this
drug? (You may assume that this prospective employee is a randomly drawn person from the
population.)

(b) (2) The prospective employee gets drug tested, and the test comes out to be positive. What is
the posterior probability that they are actually a user for the drug? (Answer this question based
on the tree)

(c) (1) When the employee finds out that they tested positive, they refuse the test results, and say
they would like to be tested again. What is the new prior probability you should use for this
employee being a user of this drug?

(d) (1) The employee tests positive again in the second test. Should the new probability of them
actually being a user of this drug be higher or lower than what you calculated before, or the same?

Higher . Lower. (Circle one)

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 6. (5 pts) City council survey. Match the following
A city council has requested a household survey be conducted in a suburban area of their city. The
area is broken into many distinct and unique neighborhoods, some including large homes, some with
only apartments, and others a diverse mixture of housing structures. Match the appropriate sampling
methods.
(1) Divide the city into neighborhoods, randomly sample 10 neighborhoods, and sample all house-
holds from those neighborhoods.
(2) Sample the 200 households closest to the city council offices.
(3) Randomly sample 50 households from the city.
(4) Divide the city into neighborhoods, randomly sample 10 neighborhoods, and then randomly sam-
ple 20 households from those neighborhoods.
(5) Divide the city into neighborhoods, and sample 20 households from each neighborhood.
(a) Simple random sampling.
(b) Stratified sampling.
(c) Cluster sampling. .
(d) Multi-stage sampling.
(e) Convenience sampling.

Fill in the blanks - 2 points each (Total 10 points)

For questions ?? to ??, fill in the blanks. Write legibly.

7. (2) The difference between an observed and predicted response is

called the .

8. (2) All else equal, a 99% confidence interval is than a 90% confidence interval.

9. (2) An extraneous variable that is related to the explanatory and response variables and that prevents

us from deducing causal relationships based on observational studies is called a .

10. (2) The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false is

called the .

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11. (2) The theorem that describes the sampling distribution of a sample statistic is called

the .

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 True or False - 1 point each (Total 10 points)
Determine if questions ?? to ?? are true or false. Fill in the bubbles on the first page of the exam.

12. (1) ( T / F ) When the null hypothesis that the means are all the same is rejected using ANOVA,
we can then conclude that all the means are different from one another.

13. (1) ( T / F ) As the degrees of freedom increases, the t distribution approaches the normal distribu-
tion.

14. (1) ( T / F ) If subjects are randomly assigned to treatments, conclusions can be generalized to the
population.

15. (1) ( T / F ) You are going to collect income data from a right-skewed distribution of incomes of
politicians. If you take a large enough sample, the sample mean and sample median will always have
the same value.

16. (1) ( T / F ) The margin of error of a confidence interval increases as the sample size increases.

17. (1) ( T / F ) Least squares regression lines minimize the sum of residuals.

18. (1) ( T / F ) The χ2 statistic has a right skewed distribution and is always positive.

19. (1) ( T / F ) Not all leverage points are influential.

20. (1) ( T / F ) A correlation coefficient of -0.90 indicates a stronger linear relationship than a correlation
coefficient of 0.5.

21. (1) ( T / F ) The F-test assessing the overall significance of a multiple linear regression model
may yield a significant p-value even if some of the variables included in the model are not significant
predictors.

13
 Multiple choice (fill in bubbles on the cover page) - 2 points each (Total 30 points)
For questions ?? to ??, select the best answer, and fill in the bubbles on the first page of the exam.

22. (2) A random sample of 100 runners who completed the Cherry Blossom 10 mile run yielded an
average completion time of 95 minutes. A 95% confidence interval calculated based on this sample is
92 minutes to 98 minutes. Which of the following is false based on this confidence interval?
(a) We are 95% confident that the true average finishing time of all runners who completed the Cherry
Blossom 10 mile run is between 92 minutes and 98 minutes.
(b) 95% of the time the true average finishing time of all runners who completed the Cherry Blossom
10 mile run is between 92 minutes and 98 minutes.
(c) Based on this 95% confidence interval, we would reject a null hypothesis stating that the true
average finishing time of all runners who completed the Cherry Blossom 10 mile run is 90 minutes.
(d) The margin of error of this confidence interval is 3 minutes.

23. (2) In a blood testing procedure, blood samples from 4 people are combined into one mixture. The
mixture will only test negative if all the individual samples are negative. If the probability that an
individual sample tests positive is 0.21, what is the probability that the mixture will test positive?
Assume blood samples are independent of each other. Choose the closest answer.
(a) 0.16
(b) 0.61
(c) 0.84
(d) 0.998

24. (2) For post-hoc tests of the results of an ANOVA we use a corrected α. If we want an overall type 1
error rate of 5% what should the α be for the individual pairwise tests if dfG = 6.
(a) 0.00179
(b) 0.00238
(c) 0.00333
(d) 0.00714

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25. (2) An introductory stats professor hypothesizes that 30% of students learn best by reading the book
and watching videos, 35% doing problem sets, and the rest in class. She surveys a random sample of
100 students asking them how they learn best, and wants to use these data to evaluate her hypothesis.
Which method should she use?
(a) χ2 test of goodness of fit
(b) χ2 test of independence
(c) Z-test
(d) ANOVA

26. (2) Consider a regression predicting weight (kg) from height (cm) for a sample of adult males. What
are the units of measurement of the correlation, the intercept, and the slope?
(a) correlation - cm, intercept - kg, slope - kg
(b) correlation - cm×kg, intercept - cm, slope - cm/kg
(c) correlation - no units, intercept - kg, slope - kg/cm
(d) correlation - no units, intercept - cm, slope - cm

27. (2) Hypotheses: H0 : p = 0.8; HA : p > 0.8. n = 30 and p̂ = 0.6. Suppose we wanted to use
simulation-based methods. Which of the following is the correct set up for this hypothesis test? Red:
success, blue: failure, p̂sim = proportion of reds in simulated samples.
(a) Place 60 red and 40 blue chips in a bag. Sample, with replacement, 30 chips and calculate the
proportion of reds. Repeat this many times and calculate the proportion of simulations where
p̂sim ≥ 0.8.
(b) Place 80 red and 20 blue chips in a bag. Sample, with replacement, 30 chips and calculate the
proportion of reds. Repeat this many times and calculate the proportion of simulations where
p̂sim ≥ 0.6.
(c) Place 80 red and 20 blue chips in a bag. Sample, without replacement, 30 chips and calculate the
proportion of reds. Repeat this many times and calculate the proportion of simulations where
p̂sim ≥ 0.6.
(d) Place 80 red and 20 blue chips in a bag. Sample, with replacement, 100 chips and calculate the
proportion of reds. Repeat this many times and calculate the proportion of simulations where
p̂sim ≥ 0.6.

28. (2) Which of the following is true?

(a) A model selected using the adjusted R2 backwards selection approach will only contain explanatory
variables that are significant at the 5% level.
(b) Adjusted R2 may or may not be smaller than R-squared, depending on the sample size and the
number of predictors in the model.
(c) A parsimonious model is the model containing the highest possible number of predictors.
(d) We cannot use R2 as a criteria for model selection because it always increases when an additional
variable is added to the model.

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29. (2) The trimmed mean is a statistical measure of central tendency, much like the mean and median.
It involves the calculation of the mean after discarding given parts of the sample at the high and low
ends. For example, the 5% trimmed mean is calculated after discarding the bottom and top 2.5% of
the sample data. Based on this information, how does the robustness of the trimmed mean to outliers
and extreme skew compare to that of the (regular) mean?
(a) trimmed mean is more robust than the mean
(b) trimmed mean is less robust than the mean
(c) trimmed mean is equally as robust as the mean
(d) cannot tell from the information given

30. (2) Does meditation cure insomnia? Researchers randomly divided 400 people into two equal-sized
groups. One group meditated daily for 30 minutes, the other group attended a 2-hour information
session on insomnia. At the beginning of the study, the average difference between the number of
minutes slept between the two groups was about 0. After the study, the average difference was about
32 minutes, and the meditation group had a higher average number of minutes slept. To test whether
an average difference of 32 minutes could be attributed to chance, a statistics student decided to
conduct a randomization test. She wrote the number of minutes slept by each subject in the study
on an index card. She shuffled the cards together very well, and then dealt them into two equal-sized
groups. Which of the following best describes the outcome?
(a) If meditation is effective, the average difference between the two stacks of cards will be more than
32 minutes.
(b) The average difference between the two stacks of cards will be about 32 minutes.
(c) The average difference between the two stacks of cards will be about 0 minutes.

31. (2) Which of the following is false?

(a) When doing prediction based on a regression model, confidence intervals for a new observation
are always narrower than prediction intervals for the same new observation.
(b) All else held constant, a model based on a higher sample size yields a narrower prediction interval.
(c) All else held constant, a model with a lower residual standard error yields a wider prediction
interval.
(d) Prediction intervals for new observations closer to the center of the observed data are narrower
than those for new observations closer to the bounds of the observed data.

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 t distribution probability table

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
One tail One tail Two tails

one tail 0.100 0.050 0.025 0.010 0.005

two tails 0.200 0.100 0.050 0.020 0.010
df 1 3.08 6.31 12.71 31.82 63.66
2 1.89 2.92 4.30 6.96 9.92
3 1.64 2.35 3.18 4.54 5.84
4 1.53 2.13 2.78 3.75 4.60
5 1.48 2.02 2.57 3.36 4.03
6 1.44 1.94 2.45 3.14 3.71
7 1.41 1.89 2.36 3.00 3.50
8 1.40 1.86 2.31 2.90 3.36
9 1.38 1.83 2.26 2.82 3.25
10 1.37 1.81 2.23 2.76 3.17
11 1.36 1.80 2.20 2.72 3.11
12 1.36 1.78 2.18 2.68 3.05
13 1.35 1.77 2.16 2.65 3.01
14 1.35 1.76 2.14 2.62 2.98
15 1.34 1.75 2.13 2.60 2.95
16 1.34 1.75 2.12 2.58 2.92
17 1.33 1.74 2.11 2.57 2.90
18 1.33 1.73 2.10 2.55 2.88
19 1.33 1.73 2.09 2.54 2.86
20 1.33 1.72 2.09 2.53 2.85
21 1.32 1.72 2.08 2.52 2.83
22 1.32 1.72 2.07 2.51 2.82
23 1.32 1.71 2.07 2.50 2.81
24 1.32 1.71 2.06 2.49 2.80
25 1.32 1.71 2.06 2.49 2.79
26 1.31 1.71 2.06 2.48 2.78
27 1.31 1.70 2.05 2.47 2.77
28 1.31 1.70 2.05 2.47 2.76
29 1.31 1.70 2.05 2.46 2.76
30 1.31 1.70 2.04 2.46 2.75

17
 t distribution probability table

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
One tail One tail Two tails

one tail 0.100 0.050 0.025 0.010 0.005

two tails 0.200 0.100 0.050 0.020 0.010
df 31 1.31 1.70 2.04 2.45 2.74
32 1.31 1.69 2.04 2.45 2.74
33 1.31 1.69 2.03 2.44 2.73
34 1.31 1.69 2.03 2.44 2.73
35 1.31 1.69 2.03 2.44 2.72
36 1.31 1.69 2.03 2.43 2.72
37 1.30 1.69 2.03 2.43 2.72
38 1.30 1.69 2.02 2.43 2.71
39 1.30 1.68 2.02 2.43 2.71
40 1.30 1.68 2.02 2.42 2.70
41 1.30 1.68 2.02 2.42 2.70
42 1.30 1.68 2.02 2.42 2.70
43 1.30 1.68 2.02 2.42 2.70
44 1.30 1.68 2.02 2.41 2.69
45 1.30 1.68 2.01 2.41 2.69
46 1.30 1.68 2.01 2.41 2.69
47 1.30 1.68 2.01 2.41 2.68
48 1.30 1.68 2.01 2.41 2.68
49 1.30 1.68 2.01 2.40 2.68
50 1.30 1.68 2.01 2.40 2.68
60 1.30 1.67 2.00 2.39 2.66
70 1.29 1.67 1.99 2.38 2.65
80 1.29 1.66 1.99 2.37 2.64
90 1.29 1.66 1.99 2.37 2.63
100 1.29 1.66 1.98 2.36 2.63
150 1.29 1.66 1.98 2.35 2.61
200 1.29 1.65 1.97 2.35 2.60
300 1.28 1.65 1.97 2.34 2.59
400 1.28 1.65 1.97 2.34 2.59
500 1.28 1.65 1.96 2.33 2.59
∞ 1.28 1.65 1.96 2.33 2.58

18
 Chi-square probability table

0 5 10 15

Upper tail 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.005 0.001
df 1 1.07 1.64 2.71 3.84 5.41 6.63 7.88 10.83
2 2.41 3.22 4.61 5.99 7.82 9.21 10.60 13.82
3 3.66 4.64 6.25 7.81 9.84 11.34 12.84 16.27
4 4.88 5.99 7.78 9.49 11.67 13.28 14.86 18.47
5 6.06 7.29 9.24 11.07 13.39 15.09 16.75 20.52
6 7.23 8.56 10.64 12.59 15.03 16.81 18.55 22.46
7 8.38 9.80 12.02 14.07 16.62 18.48 20.28 24.32
8 9.52 11.03 13.36 15.51 18.17 20.09 21.95 26.12
9 10.66 12.24 14.68 16.92 19.68 21.67 23.59 27.88
10 11.78 13.44 15.99 18.31 21.16 23.21 25.19 29.59
11 12.90 14.63 17.28 19.68 22.62 24.72 26.76 31.26
12 14.01 15.81 18.55 21.03 24.05 26.22 28.30 32.91
13 15.12 16.98 19.81 22.36 25.47 27.69 29.82 34.53
14 16.22 18.15 21.06 23.68 26.87 29.14 31.32 36.12
15 17.32 19.31 22.31 25.00 28.26 30.58 32.80 37.70
16 18.42 20.47 23.54 26.30 29.63 32.00 34.27 39.25
17 19.51 21.61 24.77 27.59 31.00 33.41 35.72 40.79
18 20.60 22.76 25.99 28.87 32.35 34.81 37.16 42.31
19 21.69 23.90 27.20 30.14 33.69 36.19 38.58 43.82
20 22.77 25.04 28.41 31.41 35.02 37.57 40.00 45.31
25 28.17 30.68 34.38 37.65 41.57 44.31 46.93 52.62
30 33.53 36.25 40.26 43.77 47.96 50.89 53.67 59.70
40 44.16 47.27 51.81 55.76 60.44 63.69 66.77 73.40
50 54.72 58.16 63.17 67.50 72.61 76.15 79.49 86.66

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 negative Z
Second decimal place of Z
0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 Z
0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 −3.4
0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 −3.3
0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0007 0.0007 −3.2
0.0007 0.0007 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0010 −3.1
0.0010 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0012 0.0012 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 −3.0
0.0014 0.0014 0.0015 0.0015 0.0016 0.0016 0.0017 0.0018 0.0018 0.0019 −2.9
0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0021 0.0022 0.0023 0.0023 0.0024 0.0025 0.0026 −2.8
0.0026 0.0027 0.0028 0.0029 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 −2.7
0.0036 0.0037 0.0038 0.0039 0.0040 0.0041 0.0043 0.0044 0.0045 0.0047 −2.6
0.0048 0.0049 0.0051 0.0052 0.0054 0.0055 0.0057 0.0059 0.0060 0.0062 −2.5
0.0064 0.0066 0.0068 0.0069 0.0071 0.0073 0.0075 0.0078 0.0080 0.0082 −2.4
0.0084 0.0087 0.0089 0.0091 0.0094 0.0096 0.0099 0.0102 0.0104 0.0107 −2.3
0.0110 0.0113 0.0116 0.0119 0.0122 0.0125 0.0129 0.0132 0.0136 0.0139 −2.2
0.0143 0.0146 0.0150 0.0154 0.0158 0.0162 0.0166 0.0170 0.0174 0.0179 −2.1
0.0183 0.0188 0.0192 0.0197 0.0202 0.0207 0.0212 0.0217 0.0222 0.0228 −2.0
0.0233 0.0239 0.0244 0.0250 0.0256 0.0262 0.0268 0.0274 0.0281 0.0287 −1.9
0.0294 0.0301 0.0307 0.0314 0.0322 0.0329 0.0336 0.0344 0.0351 0.0359 −1.8
0.0367 0.0375 0.0384 0.0392 0.0401 0.0409 0.0418 0.0427 0.0436 0.0446 −1.7
0.0455 0.0465 0.0475 0.0485 0.0495 0.0505 0.0516 0.0526 0.0537 0.0548 −1.6
0.0559 0.0571 0.0582 0.0594 0.0606 0.0618 0.0630 0.0643 0.0655 0.0668 −1.5
0.0681 0.0694 0.0708 0.0721 0.0735 0.0749 0.0764 0.0778 0.0793 0.0808 −1.4
0.0823 0.0838 0.0853 0.0869 0.0885 0.0901 0.0918 0.0934 0.0951 0.0968 −1.3
0.0985 0.1003 0.1020 0.1038 0.1056 0.1075 0.1093 0.1112 0.1131 0.1151 −1.2
0.1170 0.1190 0.1210 0.1230 0.1251 0.1271 0.1292 0.1314 0.1335 0.1357 −1.1
0.1379 0.1401 0.1423 0.1446 0.1469 0.1492 0.1515 0.1539 0.1562 0.1587 −1.0
0.1611 0.1635 0.1660 0.1685 0.1711 0.1736 0.1762 0.1788 0.1814 0.1841 −0.9
0.1867 0.1894 0.1922 0.1949 0.1977 0.2005 0.2033 0.2061 0.2090 0.2119 −0.8
0.2148 0.2177 0.2206 0.2236 0.2266 0.2296 0.2327 0.2358 0.2389 0.2420 −0.7
0.2451 0.2483 0.2514 0.2546 0.2578 0.2611 0.2643 0.2676 0.2709 0.2743 −0.6
0.2776 0.2810 0.2843 0.2877 0.2912 0.2946 0.2981 0.3015 0.3050 0.3085 −0.5
0.3121 0.3156 0.3192 0.3228 0.3264 0.3300 0.3336 0.3372 0.3409 0.3446 −0.4
0.3483 0.3520 0.3557 0.3594 0.3632 0.3669 0.3707 0.3745 0.3783 0.3821 −0.3
0.3859 0.3897 0.3936 0.3974 0.4013 0.4052 0.4090 0.4129 0.4168 0.4207 −0.2
0.4247 0.4286 0.4325 0.4364 0.4404 0.4443 0.4483 0.4522 0.4562 0.4602 −0.1
0.4641 0.4681 0.4721 0.4761 0.4801 0.4840 0.4880 0.4920 0.4960 0.5000 −0.0
∗ For Z ≤ −3.50, the probability is less than or equal to 0.0002.

20
 Y

positive Z
Second decimal place of Z
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
3.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990
3.1 0.9990 0.9991 0.9991 0.9991 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9993 0.9993
3.2 0.9993 0.9993 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995
3.3 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9997
3.4 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9998
∗ For Z ≥ 3.50, the probability is greater than or equal to 0.9998.

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