Volume 10 of 12

14th Annual Edition

2021
Tech Trends 5G
Report Robots
Strategic trends that will influence business, Transportation
government, education, media and society
in the coming year.
 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation

03 Overview 29 Mars Dogs 63 Exponential Growth in

04 Macro Forces and Emerging Trends 30 Ethical Manufacturing Autonomous Driving Data
06 Summary 31 Robot Rights 65 Autonomous Vehicle Testing
Gets Regulated
08 5G 32 Robots as Essential Workers
66 Analog Fallbacks
09 5Geopolitics 33 Expert Insight: The Next Generation
of Robots Must Be Adaptable, 67 Scenario: When Humans
10 Expert Insight: 5G Will Transform
Customizable and Trainable Attack Cars
Transportation, Entertainment,
35 Logisitics & Supply Chain 68 Urban Planning for Multi-Use Roads
Retail and More
36 Capturing IIoT Metadata 69 China’s Open Road
12 6G
37 Automating the Supply Chain 70 New Cityscape Designs
13 Breaking the Millisecond Barrier
38 Sustainability in Supply 71 Scenario: Unified Rules
15 Edge Computing
Chain and Logistics 72 Decarbonizing Flight
16 Near-real-time Application
39 Rethinking the Cold Chain 73 Supersonic Flights
Environments
40 Additive Manufacturing 74 Scenario: The End of Traffic
16 AI at the Edge
42 Drones 75 Autonomous Ships
16 Edge Management
44 Drone Swarms 76 China’s Foreign
16 Big Tech Companies at the Edge
46 Drone Fleets Infrastructure Investment
16 Hyper-local Data Centers
47 Cognitive Active Safety Features 77 Application
for Edge Computing
48 Autonomous Last Mile Delivery 78 Key Questions
18 Quantum Computing
49 Air Lanes 79 Sources
19 Updating Post-Quantum
Cryptography Standards 50 Flying Taxis 80 Author
19 Quantum Supremacy 51 Follow-Me Autonomously 84 Why FTI
19 Global Quantum Computing Race 52 Inspection Drones 85 About FTI
19 Quantum Boosts for 53 Autonomous Underwater Vehicles 86 Disclaimer
Classical Computers 54 Transportation 87 Creative Commons License
20 Robots 55 Vehicular Biospheres
21 Robots-as-a-Service (RaaS) 56 Scenario: Intra-biosphere
22 Cobots and intra-pod mobility
23 Autonomous, Programmable 57 Battery-Supported Transportation
Robot Swarms 58 Scenario: Distributed Grid
24 Self-Assembling Robots 59 Car OS
25 Robot Compilers 60 Transportation-as-a-Service
26 Soft Robotics Business Models
27 Smart Dust 61 Forced Updates
28 Commercial Quadrupedal Robots 62 Scenario: Experiential Interruptions
 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation

Overview
The 1920s began in chaos. Cata- It’s difficult not to see striking ed trends. In total, we’ve analyzed
clysmic disruption resulting from parallels to our modern world. A nearly 500 technology and science
the first world war and the Spanish tumultuous U.S. election, extreme trends across multiple industry
flu shuttered businesses and pro- weather events and Covid-19 sectors. In each volume, we discuss
voked xenophobia. Technological continue to test our resolve and the disruptive forces, opportunities
marvels like the radio, refrigerator, our resilience. Exponential tech- and strategies that will drive your
vacuum cleaner, moving assembly nologies—artificial intelligence, organization in the near future.
line and electronic power trans- synthetic biology, exascale com-
Now, more than ever, your organi-
mission generated new growth, puting, autonomous robots, and
zation should examine the poten-
even as the wealth gap widened. off-planet missions to space—are
tial near and long-term impact of
More than two-thirds of Ameri- challenging our assumptions about
tech trends. You must factor the
cans survived on wages too low to human potential. Under lockdown,
trends in this report into your stra-
sustain everyday living. The pace we’ve learned how to work from
tegic thinking for the coming year,
of scientific innovation—the dis- our kitchen tables, lead from our
and adjust your planning, opera-
covery of insulin, the first modern spare rooms, and support each
tions and business models accord-
antibiotics, and insights into theo- other from afar. But this disruption
ingly. But we hope you will make
retical physics and the structure of has only just begun.
time for creative exploration. From
atoms—forced people to reconsid-
With the benefit of both hindsight chaos, a new world will come.
er their cherished beliefs.
and strategic foresight, we can
The sheer scale of change, and the choose a path of reinvention. Our
great uncertainty that came with 2021 Tech Trends Report is de-
it, produced two factions: those signed to help you confront deep
who wanted to reverse time and uncertainty, adapt and thrive. For Amy Webb
return the world to normal, and this year’s edition, the magnitude
Founder
those who embraced the chaos, of new signals required us to cre-
The Future Today Institute
faced forward, and got busy build- ate 12 separate volumes, and each
ing the future. report focuses on a cluster of relat-

03 © 2021 Future Today Institute

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6

Macro Forces and

Emerging Trends 2 3 4 5

For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously re-
searched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result.
Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our
futures. Our 14th annual Tech Trends Report identifies new opportunities
for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business.
We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries,
including all levels of government. For those in creative fields, you will find
a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination.

Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories.

Within those categories are specific use cases and recommendations for
key roles in many organizations: strategy, innovation, R&D, and risk.

Each trend offers six important insights.

1. Years on the List 2. Key Insight 4. Disruptive Impact 6. Action Scale Informs Strategy
We track longitudinal tech and Concise description of this trend The implications of this trend on FTI’s analysis of what action your Strong evidence and data. Longer-
science trends. This measurement that can be easily understood and your business, government, or organization should take. Fields term uncertainties remain. Use it to
indicates how long we have repeated to others. society. include: inform your strategic planning.
followed the trend and its
progression. 3. Examples 5. Emerging Players Watch Closely Act Now

Real-world use cases, some of Individuals, research teams, Mounting evidence and data, but Ample evidence and data. This
which should be familiar to you. startups, and other organizations more maturity is needed. Use it to trend is already mature and
emerging in this space. inform your vision, planning, and requires action.
research.
04 © 2021 Future Today Institute
 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation

Macro Forces and

Emerging Trends

Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes

You will find scenarios imagining future worlds as trends evolve and
converge. Scenarios offer a fresh perspective on trends and often chal-
lenge your deeply held beliefs. They prompt you to consider high-impact,
high-uncertainty situations using signals available today. 1

1. Headline 2
A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes.

2. Temporal and Emotive Tags 3

A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is
optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, or catastrophic.

3. Narrative
The descriptive elements of our imagined world, including the developments
leading us to this point in our future history.

Scenario sources: The Future Today Institute uses a wide array of quali-
tative and quantitative data to create our scenarios. Some of our typical
sources include patent filings, academic preprint servers, archival re-
search, policy briefings, conference papers, data sets, structured inter-
views with experts, conversations with kids, critical design, and specula-
tive fiction.

05 © 2021 Future Today Institute

 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation

+ 6G will be the sixth generation of + There will be millions of imple- + Construction materials such as
wide-area wireless technology, mentations of robots-as-a-ser- bricks could soon behave like hu-
following the transition to 5G. vice over the next five years, man cells and evolve, replicate,
Planning for this new standard is which could generate billions of and assemble organically with
already underway. dollars of revenue. others.

+ A new standard for latency is in + As 5G comes online and reduc- + China is creating a new mobility

5G
the works and could break the es latency, robots will process ecosystem that includes electric
millisecond barrier. spatial data at fast enough vehicles, apps, communications
speeds to adapt to environmen- systems, artificial intelligence,
+ The global quantum computing tal changes. and data, and it is intending to
race is on, and equity deals for ship its products to the West.

Robots &
quantum computing startups + Robots are now capable of
surged in 2020. “sweating” thanks to a soft, + Saudi Arabia is developing fu-
robotic muscle that can auton- turistic new megacities. They will
omously regulate its internal have advanced technologies and
temperature, just like living or- urban ecosystems that rival every

Transportation
ganisms do. other major city.

+ Robotic dogs specially designed + Efforts are underway to create

for Mars will travel in packs and fully autonomous, AI-powered
assist each other as they climb, ships, along with a legal frame-

Summary
jump, and descend new terrains. work for them to operate safely
and officially in international
+ Some governments will consider waters.
granting the legal status of “elec-
tronic persons” to sophisticated
robots.
06 © 2021 Future Today Institute
5G
 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now

4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

5G
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

5G advances today’s networks using a Monetizing 5G remains a challenge • National Spectrum Consortium
5G is the fifth genera- more responsive kind of radio technol- for mobile network operators (such as
• 5G Fund for Rural America
tion mobile network and ogy that not only moves data faster but Verizon, Vodafone, and Telefónica),
also requires less power to do so. It will which must gradually make network im- • Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN)
a global wireless stan- provements while continuing to provide
shorten transmission latency from 30 • Spectrum Forward Other Transaction
dard. Since the first 5G milliseconds to just a single millisecond, service for previous 3G and 4G standards. Agreement
This last mile of the telecom ecosystem
mobile networks began allowing essentially instantaneous con-
is the most complex and costly to main- • U.S. Department of Defense’s Research
nectivity between devices on a network.
launching in 2019, this This means big opportunities for tele- tain, and earns revenue mainly through and Engineering Division

new standard has rolled customer plans. South Korea launched

medicine and robotic-assisted surgery,
high-value, premium 5G plans to increase
out slowly around the autonomous vehicles, gaming, and
revenue alongside new products and
streaming. Unlike Wi-Fi, a 5G network
world. Eventually, 5G can be built to prioritize certain data
services to entice adoption. VR cloud
gaming, augmented reality shopping,
will offer higher speeds, transmissions over others. For example,
and live sports streaming are bundled
heavy manufacturing companies and
low or even no latency utilities will be able to automate more of
in new premium plans. South Korea
notwithstanding, most 5G launches still
in data transfer, and their core processes using advanced ro- lack the use cases needed to convert users
the ability for billions of botics systems, which will in turn create and justify the investment in network
a new market for all the components, upgrades. In the U.S., the Federal Com-
5G is the fifth generation of wireless connectivity.
devices to connect with devices, and consulting services necessary munications Commission created two
one another. for operating such a network. Innovation Zones, city-scale test beds in
Salt Lake City and in New York City’s
West Harlem, for advanced wireless
communications and network research,
including 5G networks.
08 © 2021 Future Today Institute
 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now

4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

5Geopolitics
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

The Trump administration tightened New entrants are circumventing politics. • Semiconductor Industry Association
There’s a geopolitical the screws on China when it banned Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten • Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN)
fight underway, pitting Chinese companies ZTE and Huawei launched a virtual network running on
from supplying gear to American net- cloud native and open radio access net- • Rakuten Mobile
the U.S. against China
work operators in the U.S. Chipmaker work (O-RAN) technology. The network • Starlink
in a race to deploy the Qualcomm, meanwhile, is one of a scant architecture costs far less to build and
telecom equipment few U.S. companies making components operate, and doesn’t rely as much on
necessary for a widescale 5G rollout. equipment from traditional suppliers.
and systems required to Trump revoked licenses to Huawei sup- Elon Musk’s Starlink is developing a
build 5G networks. pliers, which included Intel, and there- low-latency broadband internet system
by weakened the Chinese tech giant’s with speeds of 300Mbps—fast enough
position in the global market. American to manage Wi-Fi calling and just about
security experts are urging the Biden ad- anything else consumers might stream,
ministration to build a 5G network with play, operate, or build.
and for geopolitical allies and to exclude
Chinese equipment. As of this writing,
Huawei is a major supplier of network compo-
only Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung are
nents.
allowed to build 5G networks in the U.S.
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping
has made it clear that he intends to wean
China and its allies off of Western-made
technology entirely.

09 © 2021 Future Today Institute

 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Expert Insight

5G Will Transform pivoted the needs of our customers

and forced transformation across
Transportation, all industries.

Entertainment, What can we accomplish in the

next five, 10 or 25 years? Innovation
Retail and More is happening at the speed of 5G,
and the next wave of bold predic-
tions is well on its way.
Igal Elbaz
5G will ultimately be a paradigm
SVP of Wireless and Access shift from prior networks. The in-
Technology, AT&T creased speeds, lower latency and
higher reliability will create the
ideal foundation for transforma-
tional use cases. The ecosystem
A little more than 25 years ago,
is developing capabilities never
AT&T debuted a bold advertising
before imagined with LTE. There’s
campaign predicting a future
no better time than now to take a
world enabled by emerging tech-
visionary approach to the possi-
nologies. At the time, the ads mim-
bilities. We’re collaborating with
icked science fiction—video calls
customers and allies to identify
from a payphone, sending a fax on
how technology can create a safer,
the beach and talking to a friend
more connected world.
on a watch. While the experiences
look different than our predeces- Take the healthcare industry, for
sors imagined, they are now reali- example. The combination of 5G,
ties and even necessities, as 2020

© 2021 Future Today Institute

 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation

5G is also paving the way for the and the clothes could be on a cus- ing to deliver a live 3-D augmented
future of transportation. At the tomer’s doorstep in 48 hours. This reality interactive concert for a
AT&T 5G Innovation Studio in Pla- will become a widespread reality select group of fans. Entertainment
There’s no better time no, Texas, we’re working with col- that many retailers are expected to will become more immersive with
than now to take a laborators to showcase how 5G embrace. the advancement of AI and edge
and edge computing can enable computing, and we’ll eventually
visionary approach to autonomous drones. And, as the
Another exciting area of opportu-
blur the divide between the physi-
the possibilities. edge expands, self-driving cars
nity is the entertainment industry.
cal and digital world.
5G is already re-imagining how we
will eventually become ubiquitous,
create and consume media in this 5G is triggering the next wave of
creating safer roadways. Flash
edge computing, artificial intelli- new world. Holographic commu- business transformation and indus-
forward even further, and you
gence (AI), and Internet of Things nication proved useful during last trial revolution, and these use cases
could be looking toward the sky for
unlocks a new realm of possibilities year’s NBA playoffs when reporters are only a glimpse of what’s on the
a flying taxi.
for medical professionals. Last were able to perform holographic horizon.
year, 2020, triggered the rise of Today’s technology will also trans- interviews with players from hun-
telehealth, and this momentum will **
form the retail world, because dreds of miles away, a necessity
only continue. Faster speeds, lower 2020 shifted how we shop. There given restrictions around in-person Igal Elbaz is senior vice president
latency, and massive connectivity could be “magic mirrors,” or con- interviews. of Wireless and Access Technol-
will enable more real-time remote nected displays, that use 4K sen-
Now, imagine holographic commu- ogy. He is responsible for wireless
consultations, crucial data trans- sors and digital displays to repli-
nication for the masses. In the not- and wireline access network ar-
fers, and connected ambulances. cate the experience of standing in
so-distant future, we could enjoy chitecture, design and technology
As 5G matures, we’ll see the ad- front of a mirror. Instead of having
vancement from today’s telemed- live, immersive concerts from the roadmap, including radio access
to physically try on clothes, con-
icine and remote consultations comfort of our couch. And, we’ve network, 5G and LTE mobility, voice
sumers could swipe left and right
during surgery to robotic-assisted taken the initial steps toward this core network functions, network AI
to try on outfits and accessories.
surgeries and development of reality. AT&T recently used 5G, ma- and driving industry standards.
Then, using a connected tablet, an
life-saving wearables. chine learning, and edge comput-
employee could place the order,

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 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now

4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

6G
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Project Hexa-X, the European Commis- 6G should support data rates of 1 terabyte • Hexa-X
6G will be the sixth gen- sion’s early 6G research initiative, kicked per second, making latency and capacity • Nokia
eration of wide-area off in January 2021 in preparation for balancing a thing of the past. This new
the global standard that comes after 5G. standard will support technologies that • Next G Alliance
wireless technology,
The current global transition from 4G demand real-time awareness—which • University of Oulu
following the transition to 5G is a tricky one: There are lots of are likely to include human-machine • University of Padova
to 5G. Planning for this variables over which no one entity has interfaces that intuitively understand
• Beijing University of Posts
control. Core components—licensed and our intentions. Combined with artificial
new standard is already unlicensed spectrum bands, shared spec- intelligence, the new infrastructure of 6G and Telecommunications
happening. trum, antennas, and network architec- will make networks capable of making • NTT DoCoMo
Hexa-X is developing standards for 6G. tures—aren’t necessarily uniform. Experts decisions autonomously for things like
• Samsung
believe that what they learn building 5G data storage, processing, and sharing.
networks will make the transition to 6G • Ericsson
easier. Researchers at the University of • Huawei
California, Santa Barbara, are already
• ZTE
working on component upgrades: They
built a device that could push 6G’s tera-
hertz frequency signals out of antennas
using what’s known as an N-polar gallium
nitride high-electron-mobility transistor
(HEMT). Nokia is leading the 6G joint
research initiative, and Nokia Bell Labs
is already researching the fundamental
technologies that will comprise 6G.

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 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

Breaking the Millisecond Barrier

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Latency causes problems in gaming, A new 1 millisecond standard is being • NYU Wireless
The amount of laten- videoconferencing, and VR. A typical 4G developed at New York University’s NYU
• Internet Engineering Task Force’s L4S
cy in mobile networks network incurs 50 milliseconds of lag, Wireless research center. It will require a
and with more devices and people con- new approach to encoding, transmitting, • U.S. Department of Defense
differs, based on how and routing data—but it also promises a
necting to networks, systems can quickly
far a signal must travel, become glitchy. As people worked and wild new frontier in communications. If
signals transmit fast enough that humans
the number of routers learned from home during the pandemic,
can’t perceive any lag at all, teleoperated
signals weakened, causing interruptions
it passes through, and or crashes. The coming swarm of sig- surgical robots could go into widescale
a variety of other fac- use. Haptic devices that map sight and
nal-hungry consumer devices will put
sound could convince us that a digital
tors. A new standard for added strain on networks, unless current
environment is real, not virtual.
latency barriers can be broken. Reducing
latency is in the works latency from 4G’s 50 milliseconds to 5G’s
that could result in just 1 10 milliseconds and below will be crucial
to support applications such as autono-
millisecond of lag. mous vehicles and multiplayer games.

A new 1 millisecond standard is being developed.

13 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Edge
 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now

4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Edge Computing
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Edge computing differs from the current In the near future, more of the compu- • Open Neural Network Exchange
Edge computing norm, as much of today’s computing tational work could be done locally—for • AWS Snowcone
performs takes place in the cloud, with distributed example, a car’s computer vision system
data centers handling the processing would process and recognize images • AWS IoT Greengrass
computations near or
work. The challenge for existing cloud- immediately rather than sending that • Nvidia’s EGX AI
at the source of data. based computing environments is the information to the cloud for verification. • IBM’s Edge Ecosystem
potential for delay, which is also known Edge computing requires custom chips
as latency. and hardware, and will work alongside
the cloud rather than replace its func-
Snowcone is used to run edge computing work- tionality. Consumer devices that perform
loads, or to collect, process, and transfer data to
Amazon Web Services.
biometric recognition and authentica-
tion—from smartphones to smart toi-
lets—will rely more on the edge to shore
up privacy and security.

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 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now

Edge Computing Trends

Near-real-time Application EGX AI platform for edge computing Big Tech Companies at the Edge Hyper-local Data Centers for
Environments features an extensive range of software Edge Computing
AWS invested $29 billion in its edge
accelerated by GPUs (graphics process-
Within the next decade, there could be as computing project Snowcone. Part of the The new streaming services—such as Ap-
ing units). This includes Helm Charts
many as 50 billion devices online gener- AWS Snow Family of edge computing, ple TV+, Peacock, Disney+, HBO Max—
(collections of files) for deployment on
ating enormous amounts of data. Edge edge storage, and data transfer devic- are entering a crowded field dominated
Kubernetes, or portable, open-source
computing is closely tied to the Internet es, Snowcone is designed to fit inside by Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, and YouTube.
systems for managing “containerized”
of Things and 5G connectivity. As virtual a messenger bag. The edge computing But there’s a problem looming: com-
work and services. It also gives users
reality and extended reality become pop- device collects and processes data locally. pression and bandwidth. As a result, we
access to third-party, domain-specific,
ular, more processes will be pushed onto For example, a Snowcone device could will need lots of hyper-local data centers
pretrained models and Kubernetes-ready
headsets. For example, AWS IoT Green- sit inside a manufacturing center, collect positioned closer to consumers. AWS is
Helm Charts that make it easy to deploy
grass, the platform for extending Amazon and analyze data from a production line, now building “local zones” close to major
software or build customized solutions.
Web Services to edge devices, was created and gain insights from AI systems built cities, with the goal of managing laten-
to more easily deploy applications. into the AWS ecosystem. Microsoft is cy-sensitive workloads.
Edge computing is accelerating and will impact Edge Management integrating edge capabilities with Azure,
data centres and cloud expansion in 2021.
AI at the Edge Because data and applications now live in while IBM’s Edge Ecosystem is an open
many places-­individual devices, the cloud, standards–based cloud native solution
With the proliferation of smart cameras
local storage—a traditional, one-size-fits- that can be deployed and autonomously
and speakers, developers are building
all approach to monitoring won’t work. managed at the edge at massive scale.
edge systems that can recognize natu-
ral language, people, pets, and objects. Instead, new processes will be required
Open standards, such as the Open Neural to help manage the overall digital expe-
Network Exchange (ONNX) are making rience, from security risks to latency and
on-device machine learning easier, while bandwidth.
TensorFlow Lite and TinyML encourage
artificial intelligence at the edge. Nvidia’s

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Quantum
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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Quantum Computing
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

In short, quantum computers can solve Quantum computers are becoming more • U.K. National Quantum Technologies
Quantum computing problems that are computationally too powerful and available. Equity deals Programme
uses the properties of difficult for a classical computer, which for quantum startups surged in 2020, • European Union’s Quantum Flagship
can only process information in 1s or nearly doubling from the previous year.
quantum physics to • U.S. National Quantum Initiative Act
0s. In the quantum universe, those 1 and Most activity is aimed at transforming
store data and perform 0 bytes can exist in two states (qubits) health care, logistics, and finance. But a • National Institute of Standards and
computations using at once, allowing computations to be persistent fear is driving much of today’s Technology
performed in parallel. So, if you build research: Quantum computers could
specialized machines. two qubits, they can hold four values at break today’s encryption protocols at a
• Google AI Quantum

the same time: 00, 01, 10, 11. Scientists speed and scale beyond anything we’ve • Rigetti Computing
have theorized about the possibilities of ever seen. • IBM Q Network
quantum computing for decades and only
built the first working system in 1998.
The challenge, however, has been prov-
ing that a quantum machine is actually
carrying out quantum computations.
That’s because in a quantum system, the
very act of observing information in
transit changes the nature of that data.

Google’s Sycamore performed a challenging

calculation in 200 seconds.

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Quantum Computing Trends

Updating Post-Quantum named Sycamore, calculated something earmarking $1.2 billion for quantum Quantum Boosts for Classical
Cryptography Standards that an ordinary computer—even a very research. Last year, the U.S. launched five Computers
powerful one—simply could not have new quantum computing centers, includ-
U.S. National Institute of Standards New kinds of processors are being de-
completed. Sycamore performed a chal- ing one at the Lawrence Berkeley Nation-
and Technology will recommend new signed to add on to existing equipment,
lenging calculation in 200 seconds. On the al Lab to codesign algorithms, quantum
guidelines in 2021 to help organizations to give classic computers a quantum
world’s current fastest traditional com- devices, and engineering solutions; a
transition to new cryptography standards. boost. The end result isn’t a complete
puter, that same calculation would have center at the Fermi National Acceler-
In the U.K, the National Cyber Security quantum computing system, but more of
taken 10,000 years. In February 2021, ator Laboratory to make it easier to
Centre published recommendations for a hybrid. Rigetti Computing is building
researchers from Google and quantum deploy quantum systems; and a center at
any organization using secured transac- small quantum processors that integrate
computing company D-Wave Systems Brookhaven National Laboratory to build
tions. Today’s encryption standards could with the cloud. Pharmaceutical company
solved a real-world challenge 3 million new nuclear, chemical, and physics ap-
quickly become outdated as quantum Merck is experimenting with the pro-
times faster than a classical computer. plications. Some would say that the U.S.
computers improve, and the complexity cessors for faster drug development and
showed up a day late and a few billion
of upgrading IT systems in large organi- production.
Global Quantum Computing dollars short. The U.K. National Quan-
zations will take years to complete.
Race tum Technology Program kicked off in
2013 and is now in its second phase, with
Quantum Supremacy The global quantum computing race is $1.3 billion in investment. Germany’s
In October 2019, Google researchers underway. Several nations, including program is funded at $2.4 billion. A team
published a paper in the journal Nature the U.S., France, the U.K., and China, of researchers from the University of Sci-
as well as a blog post on the company’s want to become the global leader in ence and Technology of China published
website explaining that they had achieved quantum computing. Governments are a paper in the journal Science describing
“quantum supremacy” for the first time. setting the stage now to attract talent and their quantum computer achieving speeds
Quantum computing could transform the future of
It was a significant revelation. Physicists investment, ahead of the first real-world that were 10 billion (yes, billion) times
security, encryption and national security.
said that their 53-bit quantum computer, quantum use cases. The U.S. passed the faster than Google’s Sycamore.
National Quantum Initiative Act in 2018,

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Robots
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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Robots-as-a-Service (RaaS)
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Autonomous vehicles are robots that use Using the cloud certainly offers advan- • Amazon AWS Robomaker
Cloud robotics and a network to access maps, understand tages: greater efficiencies and opportu- • Google Cloud Robotics
automation is a field spatial information, and more in order nities for data sharing and insights, as
to make decisions. Each vehicle’s data is well as collective learning across robotic • Fetch Cloud Robotics
in which physical
indexed to the network and optimized networks and shared platforms. Soon,
robots share data and for further use by researchers and other businesses will be able to take advantage
code, and perform vehicles. This is an example of cloud of cloud-based robotics for a variety
robotics, which is used within auton- of uses, including strategic warehouse
computations remotely omous driving as well as in warehouse selection in anticipation of seasonal
Microsoft’s partnership with Open Robotics will
via networks, rather automation and logistics. Amazon’s AWS retail spikes, security in large buildings,
open the Azure cloud platform to ROS developers. than within their RoboMaker is a cloud robotics service and factory automation. There will be
created to develop, test, and deploy millions of implementations of RaaS over
containers alone. intelligent robotics applications at scale. the next five years, which could generate
Its partners include Nvidia, Qualcomm, billions of dollars of revenue.
and UP Squared, and it supports the
most widely used open-source robotics
software framework, Robot Operating
System (ROS). Google’s Cloud Robotics
Core is an open-source platform that
provides digital infrastructure essential to
building and running robotics solutions
for business automation.

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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Cobots
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Collaborative robots are finding more As 5G comes online and reduces latency, • Massachusetts Institute
Collaborative robots— widespread use in industrial settings, cobots will process spatial data at fast of Technology’s Interactive
or cobots—work which can often prove challenging for enough speeds to adapt to environmen- Robotics Group
humans alone. ABB’s YuMi is a cobot tal changes. Today, collaborative robots
alongside humans • Sapienza University of Rome
that works alongside humans, assisting make up just 3% of the current installed
or together with with repetitive tasks. In China, auto- robot base around the world, but that’s • Johns Hopkins Applied
Physics Laboratory
other machines. motive components supplier Hella uses going to change. According to the Inter-
YuMi to help workers assemble parts. national Federation of Robotics, collab- • Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Teams of robots can Comau’s Advanced Use Robotic Arm orative robots are the fastest growing
communicate with one (AURA) is a high-payload cobot that segment of new robot sales.
another about when combines vision technology, laser area
scanners, and a touch-sensitive tactile
Cobots are used in a variety of settings.
to wait, when to move, skin that allows it to slow its speed and
when to carry out an force when it comes into contact with a
human operator.
activity, or even to ask
what to do next.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Autonomous, Programmable Robot Swarms

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Researchers at Harvard University’s The possibilities are staggering: Auton- • Academy of Opto-Electronics at
Autonomous Wyss Institute are experimenting with omous robot teams could be used to in- the Chinese Academy of Sciences
robot swarms are different form factors drawn from spect dams and bridges, build complicated • Wyss Institute at Harvard University
nature. They developed robots that can 3D structures, and lay protective barriers
coordinated and • Amazon Robotics
autonomously drive interlocking steel in the case of toxic chemical spills—free-
distributed to perform sheet piles into soil. In the future, robots ing up their human counterparts and
complex tasks in a like these could be used to build retaining keeping them out of harm’s way.
walls or check dams for erosion control.
Robot bees could be the future of agriculture. more efficient way Another project, called Kilobots, involves
than a single robot or 1,024 tiny robots working collectively to
non-networked group self-assemble and perform a programmed
task. Walmart filed a patent for robot
of robots could. bees, which would work collaboratively
in teams to pollinate crops autonomous-
ly. If the project works at scale, it could
potentially counterbalance the effects of
the world’s honeybee population decline.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Self-Assembling Robots
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Self-assembling robots offer a host of • The Modular Robotics Laboratory
A new generation of developed a set of robots called M-Blocks possibilities for medicine, manufacturing, at the University of Pennsylvania
robots can now self- that use a barcode system to communi- construction, and the military. The MIT • MIT Computer Science and Artificial
cate. They can identify each other and Computer Science and Artificial Intelli-
assemble, merge, split, Intelligence Laboratory
move as needed to perform designated gence Laboratory built a self-assembling
and repair themselves. tasks, which at the moment include robot called Primer that is controlled by
forming a straight line and moving down magnetic fields. It can put on exoskeleton
a pathway. The Modular Robotics Labo- parts to help it walk, roll, sail, or glide
ratory at the University of Pennsylvania better, depending on the environment.
developed SMORES-EP robots—tiny, Researchers at Georgia Institute of Tech-
cube-shaped, wheeled robots with sen- nology and China’s Peking University
sors and cameras. Moving independently discovered a new technique that mimics
M-Blocks are tiny, cube-shaped wheeled robots and docking with nearby modules, they automatic origami—in initial testing,
with sensors and cameras.
can form different structures and even structures could fold and unfold on their
self-assemble to lift objects and drop own using inexpensive liquid polymers
them off. They also created Variable To- and LED projector bulbs. Self-assembling
pology Trusses, a new class of robot that robots will be tremendous assets in emer-
can quickly reconfigure itself. gency response situations. Imagine a set
of robots forming a temporary staircase
to rescue someone from a burning build-
ing, or a set of bots that can lock together
to form a bridge over flooded roads.

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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Robot Compilers
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Today, the process of designing, pro- Researchers from the Laboratory for Em- • MIT Computer Science and Artificial
We will soon tell gramming, and building robots is bedded Machines and Ubiquitous Robots Intelligence Laboratory
computer systems time-intensive—and the robots’ capabili- at the University of California, Los Ange- • Laboratory for Embedded Machines
ties are limited by original specifications. les; MIT Computer Science and Artificial
what tasks we need and Ubiquitous Robots at the Universi-
In the future, advanced compilers will Intelligence Laboratory, University of ty of California, Los Angeles
completed, and they enable much faster conceptualization and Pennsylvania; and Harvard University
will automatically fabrication for a host of different tasks. are developing new methods for rapid
robot fabrication. 3D robotic systems can
fabricate new robots now be produced using basic software
for the job. Robot and programmed using natural language
compilers would offer commands. Fabricating programmable
robots may not exactly be a simple, DIY
greater efficiencies, weekend project, but promising research
big cost savings, and indicates that robot compilers could soon
enable people with limited technical
increased production knowledge to sketch, design, fabricate,
for manufacturers in and control a robot drawn straight from
every industry. their imagination.

Advanced compilers will supercharge robot

fabrication.

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5TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Soft Robotics
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Researchers at Worcester Polytechnic In- Massachusetts Institute of Technology • Harvard Biodesign Lab
Soft robotics are stitute created a robotic snake that could engineers created soft and compact 3D • Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies
created to mimic living navigate through rubble or confined printed structures that can be guided
spaces. Bioengineering researchers at the using magnets. The hope is that they can • University of California, Los Angeles,
organisms. Made of Samueli School of Engineering
University of California, Los Angeles, someday help control biomedical devices,
flexible materials, they developed a tissue-based soft robot that take images within the body, clear arte- • MIT Computer Science and Artificial
move in fluid ways and mimics the biomechanics of a stingray. rial blockages, deliver targeted drugs to Intelligence Laboratory’s Soft Contact
Scientists at the BioRobotics Institute specific body parts, or even extract tissue Modeling Group
adapt in real time to Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies in samples. Researchers at Cornell Univer- • Worcester Polytechnic Institute
their surroundings. Italy created a robot octopus, capable of sity developed a robot capable of “sweat-
emulating the animal’s agile motions. To ing.” They built a soft robotic muscle that
replicate the biology of an octopus, they can autonomously regulate its internal
built computer models using exact mea- temperature, just like living organisms
surements and then experimented with do. Someday soon, soft robotics will
a number of soft actuators to develop let us enter and explore environments
artificial muscles. previously unreachable by conventional
methods: deep ocean waters, the terrain
of Mars, and perhaps even the gushing
rivers of blood inside our own bodies.

This robot snake would investigate disasters.

Image credit: Worcester Polytechnic Institute.

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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Smart Dust
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

If you watched the “Arkangel” episode It sounds fantastical, but the use of • University of Southern California
Smart dust, also known of “Black Mirror” (season four), you’re MEMS is becoming more common. Robotics Research Lab
as microelectromechan- already familiar with smart dust. For They’re the accelerometer sensors for • CardioMEMS
years, researchers have been hard at our airbag systems and are also found in
ical systems or MEMS, • The Center for Advanced Materials
work on miniaturization, trying to biosensors. Scientists at the University
represents a new way of shrink computers as much as possible, of California, Berkeley, developed what Processing at Clarkson University
atomic-level materials down to the size of grains of sand or they call neural dust, which compris- • Whitesides Research Group at Harvard
specks of dust. Each particle-computer es microscopic computers that work University
engineering. consists of circuits and sensors capable alongside remote ultrasound to send and • Center for Research in Advanced
of monitoring the environment, and receive data about the brain. Meanwhile, Sensing Technologies and Environ-
even taking photographs. They can also researchers at the University of Stuttgart mental Sustainability at Binghamton
harvest energy while suspended, using figured out how to print tiny 3D lens- University
passive Wi-Fi and human body heat to es—120 millionths of a meter in diameter,
power themselves. or about the size of a fine grain of sand.
In health and medicine, this technology
will dramatically change our approach
to imaging. Rather than relying on our
current endoscopic technology, which is
bulky and invasive, a patient could simply
inhale smart dust. Beyond medicine,
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agen- trillions of smart dust particles could be
cy’s miniaturized “laboratories on a chip” were released in the wind to measure air quali-
developed to detect biological weapons in the field,
ty or take photos.
among other uses.

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2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Commercial Quadrupedal Robots

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

By emulating the form and mobility of For now, Boston Dynamics is the only • Boston Dynamics
Quadrupedal robots four-legged animals, these robots can be company selling advanced robots like
have four articulat- deployed in situations that wheeled or Spot for commercial, nonmilitary pur-
tread-equipped robots cannot navigate poses. The ecosystem is still forming, but
ed legs and can move
and that may be too dangerous or phys- as developers build applications across
around difficult terrain, ically inaccessible for human interven- different industries, we expect to see
making them useful tion. Boston Dynamics started selling a new use cases emerge, particularly in
quadruped in October 2019 and released safety, security, maintenance, emergency
tools for inspections and an enterprise model last year. The robot, response, military, and even consumer
security applications. named Spot, looks like a headless dog and contexts.
moves with the agility and athleticism of
a border collie. Spot can map environ-
ments, move around difficult terrain, and
interact with a range of different objects.
It docks and charges on its own.

Spot is a robotic dog from Boston Dynamics.

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1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

Mars Dogs
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Current robots designed for off-planet These biomimetic robots will work as • NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
NASA is working on exploration have wheels. While they’re teams, much as human explorers do. Au- • NASA Ames Research Center
Mars Dog, a four- designed to roll over rugged terrain, Spots, traveling in packs, will assist each
they’re limited to generally flat surfaces other as they climb, jump, and descend • McGill University
legged robot for
or gentle slopes. Scientists from NASA’s unfamiliar terrain on Mars. • Boston Dynamics
exploring the red Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Ames
planet. Research Center and McGill Univer-
sity are developing a modified version
of Spot, the quadrupedal robotic dog
created by Boston Dynamics. Au-Spot, as
it is known, is built for Mars: It has AI to
learn about surfaces, a communications
module, and an array of sensors (thermal,
visual, motion). Au-Spot should be able
to climb over rocks, up steep hills, and
into underground caves.

A robotic dog could someday patrol Mars.

Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech.

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5TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Ethical Manufacturing
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Sometimes a $5.99 T-shirt is too good As robots become more affordable and • United Nations Alliance
Robots could bring an to be true. Unfortunately forced labor is available, they could eliminate unethical for Sustainable Fashion
end to forced labor common in places including Uzbekistan, practices in manufacturing. But creating • World Fair Trade Organization
China, and Bangladesh. More humane more humane work environments could
and lead a new era of • Bluesign Technologies
manufacturing processes in fast fashion destabilize developing economies. Even
ethical manufacturing. and other industries could lead to im- with extremely low wages, a workforce • Oeko-Tex
proved working conditions for millions can sustain a local economy—when those • Ethical Trading Initiative
of people. wages are lost as workers are replaced
by robots, the flow of money through
the community can go from a trickle to
a drought.

Workers at a garment factory in Southeast Asia.

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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Robot Rights
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Instances of humans bullying or abus- When it comes to our interactions • Human Interaction With Nature and
Some believe that we ing robots have increased. The Human with robots, what constitutes a moral Technological Systems Lab at the Uni-
have moral obligations Interaction With Nature and Techno- violation? What rights should robots versity of Washington
logical Systems Lab at the University of have, given that so many companies are
to our machines, and • ATR Intelligent Robotics and Commu-
Washington discovered that children building smart interfaces and cognitive nication Laboratories
that robots should didn’t show the same kind of empathy for systems? If we are teaching machines to
have rights. robots that they do other humans. In the think, and to learn from us humans, then
study, 60% of the child subjects thought what moral codes are we programming
Children bullied a robot. that a humanoid robot named Robovie-II into our future generations of robots?
Image credit: ATR Intelligent Robotics and had feelings—yet more than half of them Answering these questions will become
Communication Laboratories. thought it was fine to lock him in the increasingly urgent as robots proliferate
closet. Researchers at ATR Intelligent in many aspects of our everyday lives.
Robotics and Communication Laborato-
ries, Osaka University, Ryukoku Univer-
sity, and Tokai University conducted an
experiment to measure human empathy
toward robots. They deployed Robovie
through a mall in Osaka, Japan, without
a human minder. If someone walked into
the robot’s path, it would politely ask the
human to move. Adults complied—but
children didn’t. And if unsupervised, the
children were intentionally mean, kick-
ing the robot, yelling at it, and bullying it.

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1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

Robots as Essential Workers

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Fleets of robots were deployed worldwide Do robots need worker rights, too? • Diligent Robotics
During the pandemic, in 2020. They autonomously sanitized Researchers raise this question now, • UBTech Robotics
robots became hospital rooms, monitored patients re- especially as robots are predicted to take
motely, picked up and delivered prescrip- on more meaningful roles within the • Sanbot
essential workers.
tions, took our temperatures, made pizzas workplace and in society. The European • Zipline
and salads, and assisted front-line medical Union is already discussing whether • Starship Technologies
workers. Some robots required direct there ought to be a special legal status of
supervision, but many of them worked “electronic persons” to protect sophisti- • JD.com
alone. In Austin, Texas, robots developed cated robots. • ZoraBots
Governments need to create by Diligent Robotics retrieved supplies
• UVD Robots
national registries of robots. for hospital rooms, which freed staff to
spend more time with their patients.
Such a registry would let
citizens and law enforcement
Robots retrieved supplies so hospital staff could look up the owner of any
focus on patient care.
Image courtesy of Diligent Robotics.
roaming robot, as well as
learn that robot’s purpose.
It’s not a far-fetched idea:
The U.S. Federal Aviation
Administration already has a
registry for drones.

— Stacey Higginbotham, tech journalist

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Expert Insight

The Next telepresence for tele-health. How-

ever most of these robots were
Generation of limited to simple, pre-scripted
routines or required teleoperation
Robots Must by a human.

Be Adaptable, This underscores the challenge fac-

ing robots today: Deploying robots
Customizable and in the chaos of hospitals or grocery
Trainable stores is much more complex than
deploying them in the relatively
consistent and controllable envi-
ronment of factories and ware-
Dr. Henny Admoni houses. As robotics moves forward,
A. Nico Habermann Assistant the field must grapple with dynam-
Professor, Human-Computer icism at every part of the robot’s
Interaction Institute, sense-plan-act loop.
Carnegie Mellon University One way to deal with dynamic or
surprising environments is to be
adaptable, and robot learning thus
With COVID-19 locking us all at continues to be a perennial theme.
home, robots should have had their The field has gotten pretty good
moment in 2020, taking over basic at making robots that perform
tasks that keep society functioning. pre-scripted tasks, and now the big
challenge is creating robots that
We did see some examples of
are adaptable, customizable, and
robots disinfecting public spaces,
trainable.
taking temperatures, and enabling
© 2021 Future Today Institute
 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation

both promising approaches. Robot much of robotics and AI, it’s more **
learning will likely continue to be a complicated than it initially seems.
hot topic in academic programs, Henny Admoni is an Assistant Pro-
Robot learning will research, and industry for several
Of course, it’s impossible to talk fessor in the Robotics Institute at
likely continue to be a years.
about robotics (and its close cousin Carnegie Mellon University, and
AI) without mentioning robot ethics. also has a courtesy appointment
hot topic in academic If the 2010s was the decade for The past year has seen increased in the Human-Computer Interac-
programs, research, dreams about autonomous vehi- social consciousness along a
tion Institute at CMU. She leads
cles, the 2020s are the decade in number of dimensions, not least
and industry for several which we wake up and realize it’s of which is the societal impact of
the Human And Robot Partners
(HARP) Lab, which studies how to
years. not as easy as we thought. (By the automated systems. In late 2020,
develop intelligent robots that can
way, I’m not picking on AVs; this is a Google fired researcher Timnit
recurring trend in robotics.) Gebru, launching a national con- assist and collaborate with humans
Deep learning (DL) continues to on complex tasks like preparing a
versation around accountability
be a dominant force in this area, The end of 2020 saw big news with meal. She holds an MS and PhD in
and ethics in AI. Even before that,
especially in perception and natu- Uber selling off its autonomous
though, we saw major AI failures Computer Science from Yale Uni-
ral language generation. However, driving unit to Aurora Innovation,
in vaccine distribution, education, versity, and a BA/MA joint degree in
people are also finding the limits a startup with deep robotics ex-
and policing. One heartening trend Computer Science from Wesleyan
of DL systems—such as their reli- pertise. Many of the bold promises
is an increased awareness and University.
ance on very large data sets and about autonomous vehicles from
interest in AI ethics. For example,
their brittleness to novel inputs. the last few years have not panned
universities are starting to offer
Human-in-the-loop learning (in out, and the industry seems to be
more tech ethics courses and
which a person curates input or settling down now to solve the very
students are increasingly asking for
provides feedback on a robot’s real, very hard problems of per-
ethics to be included in their tech-
performance) and active learning ception, prediction, controls, and
nical education.
(in which a robot seeks out the human-robot interaction. I’m con-
most relevant new information) are fident we’ll get there, but, as with

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 Logistics &
Supply Chain
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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Capturing IIoT Metadata

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

In an industrial setting, sensors, switches, There is no unified approach for how • Maana
The industrial internet and connected devices generate a tre- to handle metadata in manufacturing • Plataine
of things ( IIoT) refers mendous amount of data. That data can and other IIoT settings—and at the
be mined, refined, and analyzed for cost moment, not all systems and devices are • Augury
to all of the hardware
savings, greater efficiencies, and even interoperable. The metadata itself could • ThetaRay
that’s collecting, new product development. For exam- help solve that problem, by identifying • SparkCognition
sharing, and using ple, Palo Alto, California–based Maana communication protocols that would
extracts metadata to optimize a compa- facilitate the exchange of data through-
data within industrial ny’s processes by revealing previously out a network. Metadata will make it
settings. Some of unknown relationships. Austin, Texas– easier for businesses to organize the data
what’s being collected based SparkCognition uses metadata for generated from all of their connected
predictive maintenance applications in machinery within the IIoT. Advances
is metadata, which energy, gas, and utilities. in artificial intelligence will offer deeper
describes the data levels of insight into process automation.

that’s being generated.

Sensors, switches, and connected machines gen-

erate lots of data.

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2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Automating the Supply Chain

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) and The robotics industry will drastical- • Amazon Robotics
Mobile automation autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) will ly transform the supply chain. Some • Robotic Industries Association
in the supply chain become more commonplace, which will researchers anticipate that 6 million
bring cost savings and efficiencies for mobile robots will be shipped within the • Mobile Industrial Robots
is a quickly maturing
businesses. A new class of autonomous next decade, shifting every sector of the
market. While this robots and vehicles running on AI-pow- global economy.
means greater ered logistics systems is coming. In a
warehouse setting, autonomous mobile
efficiencies and cost robots assign global tasks, set paths, and
savings for businesses, optimize tasks like picking. Berkshire
it also portends job Grey is an AI-powered automated system
that picks, packs, sorts, and transports
losses for workers who products autonomously to fulfillment
operate warehouse centers, resulting in a 75% reduction in
direct human labor.
equipment.

Berkshire Grey raised $263 million in new funding

last year.

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2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Sustainability in Supply Chain and Logistics

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

The U.N. Global Compact encourag- As buying power shifts from Gen X • Sustainability Accounting
Pressure from es companies to make sustainability a and Millennials to Gen Z, supply chain Standards Board
investors, customers, priority from the top of the organiza- sustainability will become more import- • Global Reporting Initiative
tion down into supply chains. India, ant—younger consumers repeatedly say
and governments—in • U.N. Sustainable Development Goals
Indonesia, and China have mandated they prefer brands that support environ-
addition to extreme reporting of sustainability practices, and mental causes. Investors are taking note:
weather events and they will begin publishing their findings. In an Oxford University Saïd Business
Levi Strauss & Co. partnered with the School study of 70 senior executives at
trade tensions— International Finance Corp. to provide 43 global institutional investing firms,
demands new efforts lower interest rates for vendors that have including the world’s three biggest asset
to build sustainable sustainability practices in place. managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, and
State Street), sustainability was a key
supply chains. priority for 2021 and beyond.

Sustainability in the supply chain is a primary

driving force in business.

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2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Rethinking the Cold Chain

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Last year the cold chain was in the We put an enormous amount of trust in • QCMedchain
Cold chains are national spotlight, because the most the cold chain to protect the food and • StaTwig
temperature- promising COVID-19 vaccines from medicines we ingest. Companies are
Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna required beginning to look at new sustainability • Smashtag Chill
controlled supply
an ultracold transportation system. If the opportunities to improve the cold chain. • Solar Freeze
chains—critical temperature fluctuates or the cold stor- One area of interest is artificial intelli- • NelumBox
for goods such as age fails, it could render doses ineffective. gence in the cloud, which can help mon-
The cold chain is how your local grocery itor temperatures and can also optimize
medications, produce, store can sell sushi made from raw tuna travel routes. New packaging materials
and frozen foods. and salmon farmed halfway around insulate food and medicine, keeping
the world. The reason we can enjoy ice both at low temperatures without hav-
cream in the heat of the summer is the ing to refrigerate entire trucks. Climate
cold chain: a complicated system of stor- change could result in new regulations
ing and transporting food and medicine that limit how the cold chain works, but
in exactly the right temperature range new kinds of intelligent packaging and
during the trek from farm to factory to automated transportation systems mean
store. But in some areas of the world, new business opportunities.
the cold chain has contributed to climate
change.

Many COVID-19 vaccines require a stable

cold chain.

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10TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Additive Manufacturing
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

3D additive manufacturing has moved If you’re thinking of the “Star Trek” • Autodesk
Additive from the fringe to the mainstream, replicator, you’re not far off. Research- • Formlabs
manufacturing is a offering new opportunities in medical ers are working toward scanning and
and biosciences, manufacturing, and art. producing objects in seconds—over • Apis Cor
process by which
LaserFactory, a project from MIT’s Com- time, this technology will be used in
materials are puter Science and Artificial Intelligence surgical centers to rapidly print re-
deposited layer by Lab, uses silver conductive ink to attach placement valves and joints using your
circuits together and print circuit boards. own biomatter as models. We don’t yet
layer as objects are Soon, “one size fits all” will take on a have international product liability and Could a brick ever behave
printed. whole new meaning. Chinese researchers intellectual property standards, norms, like a human cell and
successfully printed ceramics capable of and regulations that govern additive evolve, replicate [and]
transforming over time in response to manufacturing and printing. A regulato-
A team at U.K.’s Nottingham Trent University stimuli such as heat and light. It’s a pro- ry framework built to protect designers,
assemble organically
are printing artificial muscles.
cess known as 4D printing, and the prac- patents, corporations, and individuals is with others? Could the
tical applications are boundless. Imagine likely on the horizon. objects we now build out of
a heat shield that suddenly materializes concrete and steel ever be
during a fire, or a garden that plants itself
as adaptable, intelligent,
when the ground has warmed to precise-
ly the ideal temperature for each seed. and multifunctional as those
grown from the earth?

— Paola Antonelli, Museum of Modern Art

curator and director of MoMA R&D

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Drones
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10TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Drones
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES

Companies now use drones for mapping

Drones have seen and inspections in agriculture, mining,
unprecedented market and construction. Drones inspect dan-
gerous and hard-to-reach places such as
growth and rapid
chemical weapons plants and erupting
adoption across various volcanoes. The emergence of COVID-19
industries, thanks to and racial injustice protests accelerat-
ed the already-fast adoption of drone
lower costs, easier technology. Last year, UPS, CVS, and
manufacturing, and drone tech company Matternet launched
their effectiveness in a drone delivery pilot program that al-
lowed Florida residents to shelter in place
a wide range of use and receive medical deliveries including
cases. documents and blood samples. Contro-
versially, government and citizen drones
also tracked protesters and police during
widespread marches for social justice,
and monitored social distancing amid the
pandemic in places including New York,
Paris, Mumbai, and China.
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of drones.

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Drones continued

DISRUPTIVE IMPACT a constellation of AI-powered cameras, EMERGING PLAYERS

The use of drones allows us to work biometric recognition systems, airborne • Zipline
outside the limitations of the human unmanned vehicles, lidar, and mobile
• Anduril
body in a very cost-effective way. We’ll phone monitoring systems, to create
likely see a wave of mergers and acqui- a “smart wall” that conducts detailed • Terra Drone
sitions among flight service providers, surveillance, primarily for use at the • Hemav
hardware startups, drone and aircraft Texas-Mexico border. The bill stalled
• Matternet
manufacturers, asset and flight path in committee, but in the wake of recent
management software makers, and data public unrest, there’s renewed interest—
processing platforms. The growing and now, better technology—to make
sector may give rise to a new “drones-as- the proposal a reality.
a-service” business model akin to the car
and scooter sharing industry, delivering
access to drones without the interven-
tion of specially trained experts. We’ll
also see more government uses, includ-
ing identifying terrorists and monitoring
immigration. In 2017, U.S. Rep. Will
Hurd (R-Texas) proposed the Secure
Miles with All Resources and Technolo-
gy (SMART) Act, which would employ
Agricultural drones can manage crop health from the air.

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5TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Drone Swarms
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES Civilian applications include dazzling
The U.S. Army is developing a Cluster light shows and dynamic aerial artwork.
Drone swarms, or fleets UAS Smart Munition for Missile Deploy- Disney and Intel are creating a new type
of light show that uses 300 drones with
of networked drones ment that would allow a swarm of small
drones to fan out and destroy vehicles multicolored lights that fly in unison at
capable of coordinated with “explosively formed penetrators,” Disney World.
operations and com- or EFPs. The U.S. Navy Office of Naval
munication, are being Research intends to launch a swarm of
Coyote drones, made by U.S. military
developed for military
contractor Raytheon, for intelligence,
operations, surveil- reconnaissance, and potentially weapon-
lance, and other com- ry. Turkey has deployed Kargu tactical
plex functions without kamikaze drones on the Syrian border
via remote pilots. In October, China
human interaction. In a conducted a test launch of 48 “suicide”
drone swarm, the col- drones from a truck and helicopter. This
lective functionality of follows a number of other larger swarm-
drone experiments by the country in
the overall network be- 2017. The U.S. Army plans to build an
comes more important autonomous charging system that swarm
than each individual drones could fly to for charging before
redeployment. The Army is also working
300 unmanned drones performed aerial formations and light shows during the rehearsal for Singapore
National Day Parade in 2017.
drone, and the group of on a giant recharging drone called the
drones can “learn” and Joint Tactical Aerial Resupply Vehicle,
adapt synergistically. which is also intended to serve swarms.

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Drones Swarms continued

DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Swarms of drones would allow a single • U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research
delivery truck to service a full neigh- • U.K. Defence Science and Technology
borhood or multiple drones to work Laboratory
together in the manner of a school of
fish. Ideally, future swarms will use what • China Electronics Technology Group
Nora Ayanian, a roboticist at University
of Southern California, calls “leveraging
diversity in the control policy,” in which
each drone is programmed slightly dif-
ferently so that the one best suited to the
task teaches the rest of the swarm how
to act. This could make drones more
robust in unstructured and uncertain en-
vironments, such as in disaster response,
environmental monitoring, and military
applications.

Drone swarms fan out to automatically amd work as a team to accomplish goals.

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2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Drone Fleets
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

The pandemic accelerated drone-delivery Amazon has also filed patents for inter- • Amazon
Fleets of drones certification approvals, as many con- esting drone-fleet logistics, including a • Google’s Wing
operating as air sumers avoided brick-and-mortar stores. gigantic beehive-like structure, where
Amazon received U.S. Federal Aviation drones would dock and receive packages, • UPS
carriers will begin
Administration clearance last year to be- and a laundry chute system attached to • FedEx
making package gin making commercial deliveries under houses where packages would drop safe- • Walgreens
deliveries soon. a trial program. Amazon joined UPS and ly and tumble down to customers.
• CVS
Google as companies certified to make
autonomous deliveries. Google’s Wing,
partnering with Walgreens and FedEx,
began its tests last year. UPS now flies
medical supplies between buildings on a
Raleigh, N.C., hospital campus.

Amazon’s patent for a multilevel urban hive.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Cognitive Active Safety Features

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Netradyne makes AI-powered dash Vehicle manufacturers will continue to • Netradyne

Car manufacturers, cameras that monitor real-time road implement and tout active safety features • Driveri
seeking to meet conditions to reduce accidents. Compa- to attract safety-minded consumers, with
nies can use the technology inside fleet software representing the next wave of • Comma.ai
consumer preferences,
vehicles to monitor driving behavior advances. Car manufacturer develop- • Tesla
are quickly adopting and teach commercial drivers how to ment cycles, historically occurring over a
proactive safety be safer and more efficient drivers. 10 year span, will accelerate as platforms
Comma.ai created Openpilot, an open- become increasingly software-driven.
functions that also source software driver assistance system
provide the building that uses a $1,200 camera and develop-
blocks for full ment kit that allows people to trans-
form their cars so they steer, accelerate
autonomous driving. and brake automatically, as with Tesla’s
Autopilot. Comma.ai works with a
large variety of car models and man-
ufacturers via a customized Android
cell phone mounted to the windshield
and connected to the vehicle’s existing
adaptive cruise control hardware.

Increasingly advanced safety features are laying the

foundation for autonomous vehicles.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Autonomous Last Mile Delivery

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Nuro, a startup founded by former A study from the World Economic • Nuro
Autonomous delivery Google engineers, is developing auton- Forum found that rising demand in • Refraction AI
is becoming more omous vehicles for last-mile deliveries, e-commerce will lead to a 36% increase
including take-out, groceries, laundry, in delivery vehicles in the largest 100 • Cenntro Automotive Group
common, driven in
and packages. JD.com has autonomously global cities by 2030, and last-mile • Arrival
part by an increased delivered more than 13,000 packages, delivery will spike 78%. The first widely • Rivian
desire for contactless traveling 6,900 kilometers in lockdown deployed autonomous vehicles likely
environments. Cenntro Automotive won’t be transporting humans but rather
interactions brought Group’s CityPorter electric vehicle will familiar goods—like pizza. These sorts of
about by the soon make urban deliveries, while Gen- autonomous deliveries will continue to
pandemic. Delivery is eral Motors launched a new last-mile gain momentum as a reliable, data-rich,
delivery business called BrightDrop. and cost-effective solution for last-mile
an ideal testing and transportation with the potential to
development ground improve customer experiences. These
relatively low-stakes deliveries will
for autonomous socialize autonomous technology in
vehicles, as the hurdles everyday society, easing the transition to
for safely transporting autonomous vehicle systems for trans-
porting people.
food are lower than
Starship Technologies uses robots to deliver food those for safely
and drinks to George Mason University students.
transporting humans.

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5TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Air Lanes
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration Regulators have an opportunity to pre- • U.S. Federal Aviation Administration
The proliferation of has updated its Part 135 certification pro- empt congestion, ensure safety, manage • International Civil Aviation
drones will lead to more cess for package deliveries by drone and is community perception, ensure privacy Organization
creating new regulation for air safety and and learn from road and air travel if they
aviation guidelines, in- • European Union Aviation
industry guidelines. UPS Flight Forward proactively create aerial infrastructure
cluding “air lanes” that was the first to receive a Standard Part 135 along with key stakeholders. Cities and Safety Agency
will guide low-flying air- air carrier certificate to operate a drone states will then need to develop regulation • Civil Aviation Administration of China
aircraft in 2019. The FAA is now working to ensure interoperability of drone lanes.
craft, both piloted and with industry as well as state, local, and
• South African Civil Aviation Authority

autonomous. Where tribal governments to inform future rules • Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore

and when these new and regulations.

The FAA’s new BEYOND program will
aircraft can operate will develop and scale drone delivery opera-
significantly impact the tions, establishing rules for infrastructure
built and natural envi- inspection and public operations. The
program will also gather data and commu-
ronment, and managing nity feedback on the social and economic
the number of flying benefits of drones. Vodafone and Ericsson
will work together to prove how safe
drones will be important
flight path corridors can be created within
Proactive planning can help avoid an aerial overload. to ensure safety and existing cellular network coverage. Using
Image credit: Flightradar24.
noise pollution. network traffic data ensures that autono-
mous drones avoid areas of poor network
coverage to guarantee connectivity from
departure to destination.
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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Flying Taxis
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

In 2021, Cadillac introduced a vertical Most designs use electric engines that • European Organisation for the Safety
Compact, unmanned take-off and landing (eVTOL) personal allow for vertical landing and takeoff of Air Navigation
electric aircraft air taxi. It’s General Motors’ first foray in urban spaces, enable short- to me- • New Zealand government
into the increasingly crowded aerial dium-distance trips, and rely on both
have moved beyond • EHang
mobility space. Hyundai, Aston Martin, piloted and autonomous formats. NASA
the concept stage, and other carmakers announced plans Ames Research Center and the U.S.
and now a flurry of to build their own eVTOL aircraft. But Federal Aviation Administration are
there have been setbacks: A fire inside a currently working to create regulations
prototype tests at hangar destroyed a prototype by Ger- for safety and air traffic control. The
companies worldwide many-based Lilium; Boeing’s Aurora result could be hundreds of thousands
could open the door Flight Sciences prototype crashed; and of delivery drones and air taxis flying
Kitty Hawk’s one-person vehicle, Flyer, in urban and suburban airspace, open-
General Motors debuted its concept eVTOL in 2021.
for autonomous air suffered fires involving batteries, electric ing up a new medium of travel for the
travel services to take motors, and wiring. mainstream passenger and impacting
transit design, congestion, and travel
individuals and small times. The high rate of crashes in the
groups short distances. helicopter travel industry, including
the high-profile fatal crash of Kobe and
Gianna Bryant and seven other people in
2020, highlights the need for increased
safety in this burgeoning area.

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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Follow-Me Autonomously
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Many photo- and video-enabled con- The ability to automatically avoid crash- • DJI
“Follow-me” sumer drones available today have “fol- es and reroute around obstacles greatly • Skydio
functionality, whereby low-me” and crash-avoidance function- increases a drone’s safety and versatility.
ality, enabling semi-autonomous flight, Autonomous conflict avoidance and • Yuneec
a drone is able to
where a subject is kept in the frame of follow-me functionality reduce stress
detect and pursue a the camera without the need for a des- and sensory demand on the remote pilot,
moving subject, has ignated pilot. This is ideal for capturing making indoor flight easier and expand-
solo activities like skiing, surfing, and ing the range of circumstances in which
burst onto the scene dance. Most of these drones rely on GPS drones can be safely operated.
in personal drones transmitter technology or recognition
for photography and software, such as DJI ActiveTrack.

videography, but it has

potential applications
in a range of settings
and situations.

Follow-me functionality allows drone operators to

capture the moment without worrying about piloting.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Inspection Drones
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Drone inspections are being performed Increasingly frequent extreme weather • Carnegie Mellon University
As natural disasters in almost every industry that requires events will further strain infrastructure. • Neurala
and extreme weather visual inspections, in the aftermath of As civil aviation authorities grant new
a weather event or as part of routine certifications to allow flights beyond • Optelos
events become more
maintenance. Drones can capture visual the visual line of sight, drones will gain • PowerVision Robots
common, drones data more safely than humans can— access to remote gas pipelines, power
will help with the and AI systems process those data in lines, and other areas that are often only
real time. Carnegie Mellon University reachable by dangerous backroads.
rapid inspection and researchers are developing an AI system
interpretation of that will review amateur drone footage
critical infrastructure. of damage from 2020’s Hurricane Laura
so that it can perform rapid damage
assessments in the future. The system
would automatically identify buildings
and offer preliminary damage assess-
ments, increasing situational awareness
and significantly reducing cost and
human labor.

Drones can inspect infrastructure in places that are

too dangerous for humans.

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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
The U.S. Navy first developed underwa- Underwater drones are changing the • Blueye Robotics
Drones aren’t just ter drones, and such devices were used to business dynamics of marine construc- • Geneinno
for air and land. discover the wreck of the Titanic in 1985. tion, potentially increasing underwater
Modern drones are far more advanced. land usage. The potential of improved • Youcan Robot
Underwater drones Today’s autonomous underwater vehicles underwater surface mapping could also • Notilo Plus
have been around are used to disable mines; to explore for
cut the costs of laying the transatlantic
oil and gas drilling; to inspect nets; to feed
since the 1950s, and stock fisheries; and to reduce costs for cables that serve as the backbone of the
monitoring, building, and maintaining internet, enabling increased competition
but in recent years and connectivity. Military autonomous
underwater assets. General Dynamics’
the technology has Bluefin-21 drone is known for its 2014 underwater vehicles could be used in
improved dramatically search for the wreckage from Malaysia both offensive and defensive capacities
Airlines Flight 370. Boeing’s Echo Voyag- including intelligence, network infra-
due to better batteries, er is the largest autonomous underwater structure, port security, and more.
low-light high- vehicle, weighing 100,000 pounds, and
it can also go the deepest. Boeing and
definition cameras, Huntington Ingalls Industries are now
and lighter control developing the Orca drone submarine,
designed for military combat, surveil-
boxes and sensors. lance, and minesweeping. Lockheed
Autonomous vehicles could significantly help to
Martin’s Marlin can create 3D models of
maintain and inspect underwater structures.
its surrounding environment in real time.
The navies of France, Japan, Russia, and
China, meanwhile, are developing their
own underwater technologies. Under-
water drones have even become popular
among consumer hobbyists and can be
53 purchased online for $500 to $3,000.
© 2021 Future Today Institute
Transportation
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1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

Vehicular Biospheres
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

In its 2015 Model X SUV, Tesla designed The pandemic has made people more • Tesla
Vehicles are evolving an air filtration system called Bioweapon sensitive to potential environmental • Illumination
into controlled Defense Mode that’s allegedly capable hazards. Many limit their travel source
of protecting passengers from a mili- to only their private cars in order to • Geely Group
mobile biospheres
tary-grade biological attack. The system limit exposure. Vehicles as extended
that allow people uses a HEPA filter that can remove personal biospheres or exosuits could
to move through the particles as small as 0.3 micrometers, necessitate the expansion of dense urban
roughly the width of a single strand environments and prompt designers to
world and spend of spider silk. Geely Group says it will build experiences with the assumption
extended periods spend $53 million to develop cars that that everyone will participate from with-
in their cars without purify the air of the cabin and filter out in their own personal biosphere.
viruses. These sorts of features arrive as
subjecting themselves vehicular activities like drive-by parties
to the elements and and parades become increasingly com-
mon as distanced options for socializing
contagions. and attending events amid the pandemic,
along with an uptick in curbside or in-
store pickups for online purchases. The
world’s largest drive-through animated
light show—in Marietta, Georgia, for the
Cars are being used as mobile “quarantine” zones. 2020 holiday season—extended 1 mile in
length and took 30 minutes to traverse.

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Intra-biosphere and
intra-pod mobility

Far-future pessimistic scenario

Car customization shops begin adding options for virus
safe air-conditioning systems in addition to their existing
armor plating and explosive device countermeasures to
a-la-carte modifications for the ultra-rich. The option
becomes so popular that car manufacturers take notice,
creating car-based biosphere isolation specifications for
the entire industry to follow. As a result, cars come with
biosphere certifications that allow occupants to prove
they did not encounter any contagions, so they can speed
through any contagion testing or quarantine restrictions.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Battery-Supported Transportation
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Battery-powered transportation now Energy prices, reliable and safe batteries, • Tesla
The rise of battery- extends beyond cars, trucks, and buses to and convenient, affordable recharging • ChargePoint
supported motorized bicycles, hoverboards, skate- infrastructure will drive adoption of
boards, and scooters. The battery-pow- electric transportation. Utility provid- • EVgo
transportation will
ered transportation movement will drive ers will be pressured to improve grid • Blink Charging
change how we power new business models and gradually cut resiliency as demand grows for domestic
vehicles, transforming demand for fossil fuel-powered trans- charging. Those first movers to provide
port. California will phase out the sale of charging infrastructure along travel
an infrastructure gasoline-powered cars by 2035, making routes will shift traffic patterns and
that has historically a robust and reliable electrical grid even create new networked economies—simi-
sourced energy from more critically important in the state. lar to how the interstate highway system
Risks are highlighted by the regular roll- created an economic boom for certain
gasoline to one that ing power outages during California’s towns and hurt those cities that were
delivers it via the wildfire season—or Texas’s widespread bypassed.
blackout during a winter storm in early
electrical grid. 2021—and are underscored by Tesla’s
new in-car warnings to drivers about
upcoming power outages nearby.

Transitioning to grid power from fossil fuels will test

energy delivery infrastructure.

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Distributed Grid Competing Standards VHS vs Betamax,

But for Cars

Mid-future optimistic scenario Mid-future neutral scenario Mid-future catastrophic scenario

Charging infrastructure becomes fully Charging infrastructure develops region- Energy infrastructure delineates the
standardized and interoperable. Charging al level interoperability with one or two haves from the have-nots. The charging
stations become commonplace and are primary standards to which all-electric ve- networks are not interoperable, and we de-
readily available publicly and privately on hicles can connect. Public charging stations velop dongle hell for cars. Fragmentation
highways, rural roads, and urban centers. concentrate around interstate highways persists until there is market saturation
Fast and slow charging is readily available and urban centers, driven by the adoption and the government steps in, mandating
in homes and at charging stations. The of upper-middle-class commuters and interoperability. Think Apple iPhone forc-
electrical infrastructure adapts and offers commercial trucks. Most of the charging ing people to buy Bluetooth headphones
dynamic energy consumption across the happens at home with residential charge versus Android phones, only this time it is
entire system, reducing pollution and points. Electricity infrastructure has a lim- Tesla versus Volkswagen.
delivering cleaner energy than its petro- ited adaptation to the increased demand. Fuel for power plants and electricity
leum-based predecessors. Power generation continues with limited generation does not adapt, so the elec-
The grid becomes distributed, scalable, and decreases in overall pollution. Utilities tricity powering our transportation is
self-routing in a manner that maximizes aggressively incentivize consumers to shift less efficient and more polluting than the
efficiency and safety. Consumption can electricity demand across non-peak times gas-powered cars they are replacing. We
be predicted and mapped very accurately, by limiting fast charge times and condi- become increasingly dependent on the out-
reducing peak load and overcapacity needs. tions. Blackouts and brownouts become dated infrastructure that begins to decay
Systems are designed and developed where more common and predictable like snow- at an increasing rate under the new load
batteries and devices connected to the grid storm and fire disruptions… inconvenient, causing frequent brownouts and blackouts.
can receive and return power as needed in but generally accepted. States and municipalities begin to com-
an open ecosystem. pete on delivering power, redistributing
population centers, furthering divisions of
wealth and opportunity.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Car OS
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Amazon, Apple, and Google are compet- The major platform players increasingly • Tesla
Platforms are building ing to gain a foothold in the auto enter- view car ecosystems as prime real estate • Google’s Android Automotive OS
operating systems for tainment industry as carmakers incor- not only for customer attention but for
porate smartphones directly into driving data collection. As consumers spend • Amazon’s Alexa Custom Assistant
smart cockpits.
interfaces. Amazon’s Alexa Custom As- more time in their cars without as much • Apple’s CarPlay
sistant was developed for the enterprise: need to pay attention to actually driv-
Companies such as Stellantis are using it ing, carmakers must decide whether to
to develop their smart cockpits. Volvo’s design their own systems and compete
Polestar 2 uses the Android Automotive with tech titans or to give up ownership
OS custom-built by Google. of the infotainment dashboard to third
parties. The applications available on
each car platform will likely determine
adoption and ultimately decide the mar-
ket winners and losers.

Technology companies are building operating sys-

tems for the cockpit.

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5TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Transportation-as-a-Service Business Models

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

The business model of ride-sharing The high upfront investment, main- • Gett
The business models services Uber, Lyft, Via, and Gett now tenance costs, and rapid depreciation • Via Transportation
for transportation extends beyond cars. Citi Bike provides associated with traditional car owner-
rentals of electric and non-electric bi- ship will dissuade potential car owners • Sixt
are shifting to
cycles, while Bird, Spin, Skip, eCooltra, as they avail themselves of transporta-
subscription and pay- and Ioscoot offer scooter rentals. Car tion options with subscription models
per-use structures, rental companies like Hertz, Avis, and or per-use rates. Consumers will likely
Sixt now offer rentals by subscription, demand business models that are per-
as bike, scooter, by the minute, or by the mile in specific sonalized and maximize flexibility and
and car ride-sharing urban centers. Carmakers are also test- cost-efficiency. What year will fleet-
services become more ing new ownership models, such as Audi
Select, Access by BMW, Genesis Spec-
owned autonomous
common. trum, Porsche Drive, and Porsche Host. cars outnumber
family-owned cars in
the U.S.?

New business models are shifting from ownership to

subscriptions and pay-as-you-go.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Forced Updates
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Forced updates can be either good or When a provider like Microsoft or • Tesla
In an ideal world, bad. When Tesla issued an update to its Google changes a keyboard shortcut or • Amazon
keeping software Model 3 that improved braking distance switches the delete and archive button,
by a full 19 feet, that was good. When frustration often ensues. Now imagine • Google
updated ensures
Microsoft’s Windows 10 forced an if Tesla reprogrammed which button • Apple
the safest and best unannounced mandatory restart in the or pedal sounded your horn, or applied • General Motors
experience possible. middle of a professional gamer’s lives- your brakes—the result could be cat-
• Microsoft
tream to 130,000 followers, that was not astrophic. Or say you’re in a rush to a
But in reality updates good. Microsoft has since rethought its critical meeting, but because of a billing
are often mandatory policy of forced updates. hiccup on your car’s lease, security soft-
and sometimes cannot ware suddenly kicks in that restricts your
maximum speed to 65 mph. Automotive
be postponed or platforms will evolve continuously, with
avoided, meaning they new features and functionality added via
over-the-air firmware updates. Provid-
can unexpectedly take ers will increasingly navigate the difficult
systems offline, force path of introducing new features to keep
unwanted changes, pace with evolving technologies and
improving customer experiences, while
and expose users to ensuring major changes are introduced
A driver attempts to diagnose engine problems on unforeseen bugs and gradually enough to avoid creating new
his own in the middle of traffic. user-error risks.
vulnerabilities.

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Experiential Interruptions

Near-future neutral scenario

Autonomous vehicles pave the way for experiential
transportation. Your car can double as a theater, a cocktail
bar, or a library… for an additional fee. When the car is
no longer the product you buy, service is essential and
content is still king. If you’re unwilling to pay a premi-
um, you might be stuck watching a movie you’ve already
seen while also being inundated with deliberate product
placement. Pop-up ads block those scenic mixed reality
views during long car trips. Augmented OLED windows
malfunction and lag, displaying blue screens and spinning
wheels, giving new meaning to the term “car crash.” Get-
ting from one place to another is a trade-off between the
journey and the destination.

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Exponential Growth in Autonomous Driving Data

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES using a virtual environment based on the
Approximately 200,000 Tesla vehicles Unity gaming engine. Rockstar Games
The quality of any algo- now navigate the roads using autopilot. received attention for stopping organi-
rithm has a significant With the increase in autonomous miles zations such as OpenAI from using its
“Grand Theft Auto” game as a platform
correlation with the logged, emerging patterns in the data
will help solve some of the problematic for training self-driving cars.
size of the dataset on edge cases in the algorithms (those that Synthesized data can help us get to the
which it is trained. The occur rarely or only under extreme con- edge cases faster, meaning more prog-
size of these datasets in ditions). The current algorithms have ress per mile analyzed, and making the
at times struggled to identify stationary algorithms safer overall. To put edge
autonomous driving is
objects, in the worst cases resulting cases in context, think of how many
reaching an inflection in catastrophic crashes. Shortcuts to miles one would have to drive to come
point as the number of training the AI systems are beginning across a pedestrian on stilts crossing
autonomous car users to mature. Helm.ai uses a deep teaching paths with a cyclist doing a wheelie in a
methodology that programs the system rainstorm? It sounds highly unlikely, but
regularly generating to understand base rules like object per- if the algorithm has never been exposed
real-world driving data manence, effectively giving the AI a head to such a situation, it might make a fatal
approaches critical start on learning. Massachusetts Institute error—which is why it’s important to
of Technology created a digital laborato- expose the algorithm to as many of these
mass. Beyond this influx ry to translate real-world situations into atypical cases as possible.
of real, raw data, meth- simulated scenarios using deepfake tech-
Training data is critical for building AIs like those used in autonomous vehicles. ods of generating syn- nology—allowing AI to train quickly and
at lower cost in a virtual environment,
thetic training data are but on data based on real-life circum-
reaching maturity. stances. Volvo trains AI on edge cases

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Exponential Growth in Autonomous Driving Data continued

DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

The company with the most training • Helm.ai

data should best be able to reduce its ve- • Oxbotica
hicles’ autonomous-driving error rates,
potentially cultivating a powerful brand • Nvidia
association with safety—think Volvo in
the ’80s or Subaru in the 2010s. With
the stigma of autonomous driving as an
under-regulated and potentially untrust-
worthy technology, perceived safety
performance may be the most important
factor for winning market share. For
carmakers, however, autonomous algo-
rithms aren’t necessarily a “winner take
all” market, because the developer with
the best system could resell or license its
software to other players.

As cars with autonomous features become popular, they generate data to help systems improve.

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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Autonomous Vehicle Testing Gets Regulated

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada Creating learner’s permits or driver’s • Focus Group on AI for Autonomous
New rules will govern (along with some federal initiatives) lead licenses for AI-enabled autos will help and Assisted Driving
how autonomous in testing autonomous vehicles on public socialize the technology and establish ex- • U.S. National Highway Traffic
roads, with other states and countries pectations for experiences and protocols
vehicles can be tested. Safety Administration
catching up. Since 2012, at least 41 states on the road. For autonomous vehicles
Current legislation and Washington, D.C., have consid- to become safer, they must be tested in • National Conference of State
Legislators
around autonomous ered legislation related to autonomous conditions similar to those where they
vehicles. More than 50 self-driving will be deployed. Because of this dynam-
cars is in flux and companies are testing their technolo- ic, autonomous car services will likely
has yet to be set at a gies in California. ITU, the specialized arrive soonest in areas with existing
national level. United Nations agency for telecom and testing sites. The fragmented regulatory
information communications technol- environment, which will remain until
ogy, created a focus group to develop federal laws and guidelines are imposed,
performance standards for autonomous will result in conditional and situational
vehicles, including what an “AI driving rules, such as how Cadillac centrally des-
test” should entail. ignates sections of road compatible with
Super Cruise, its AI-enabled hands-free
driving assistance product.

Who will give AI its driving license?

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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

Analog Fallbacks
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Many car locks today depend on elec- There is hardly a more apt application • Cadillac
As more systems and tricity and become inoperable when the of the phrase “They don’t make ’em like • Corvette
infrastructure transition car battery dies. Tesla’s Model 3 has a they used to” than the auto industry. As
• Tesla
to digital formats, and mechanical system for the front doors, vehicles become more automated, manu-
but not the rear doors. Such vulnerabili- facturers must design for the appropriate • Range Rover
more purely digital sys-
ties can cause life-threatening scenarios: level of redundancy and for a population
tems are built, fewer of A failed car battery locked the doors of of people with limited understanding of
these systems will rely an Ohio man’s Cadillac and trapped him how the underlying systems work.
on analog or manual in the car for 13 hours, and, in another
case, a Texas man and his dog died in his
fail-safes. When these Corvette as a result of the same problem.
unprotected digital sys- Both vehicles had manual door release
tems fail, it will lead to mechanisms as a fallback for when
electrics failed, but neither person could
increasingly catastroph- find the release. To make matters more
How do you open a door that is frozen shut—and
ic outcomes. Electrical tragic, one of the victims had the vehicle
has no handles? systems are historical- owner’s manual yet was still unable to
ly more sensitive and activate the manual release mechanism.
These problems will be exacerbated
fragile than their analog when cars no longer come with phys-
counterparts, meaning ical user manuals or when firmware
failures are likely to be- updates change a car so drastically that
the original physical manual is no longer
come harder to assess, accurate.
repair, and recover from.
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When Humans Attack Cars

Near-future pessimistic scenario

Every year, more than 200,000 people die in a car acci-
dent. That’s about one person every three minutes in the
United States. Millions more are hospitalized because of
car-related injuries. And now there’s a twist: armed with
rocks, guns, pocket knives, and in one instance, a PVC
pipe, humans have started attacking cars.
The reason: big tech companies must adjust their
self-driving technology to real-world communities that
aren’t interested in being test subjects. Google’s Waymo
division, which has been testing vans near Phoenix since
2017, has had several run-ins with locals: they’ve slashed
car tires, pelted vehicles with rocks, and tried to run vans
off the road. Residents have safety concerns, especially in
the wake of a 2018 collision involving a pedestrian and
a self-driving Uber car just a few miles away in nearby
Tempe. But the real issue here isn’t safety. It’s that we
all struggle to cope with technological change, especially
when it disrupts the foundations of everyday life.

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2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Urban Planning for Multi-Use Roads

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Strava Metro is using the data from Intelligent load balancing and redis- • Strava Metro
As the role of car own- runners and cyclists to help urban plan- tribution of transportation real estate • Open Streets Project
ership shifts in society, ners design safer streets. The National could significantly increase the through-
Association of City Transportation put of existing transportation infrastruc- • National Association of City
public roads will trans- Transportation Officials
Officials released evolving guidelines ture. Increased quality, quantity, and
form. Streets and side- for street space design and pandemic diversity of traffic data will enable cities
walks are increasingly recovery strategies. They include vari- to redistribute how much attention
ous street use cases, including protests, and space is designated for car travel
becoming mixed-use voting, outdoor dining, and markets. and storage versus use by pedestrians,
spaces as a greater Slow streets are designed to limit traffic cyclists, and others.
variety of transporta- in certain residential areas.

tion methods become

popular and prevalent.
The pandemic-relat-
ed need for outdoor
dining and commerce
has accelerated the
Road design will accommodate more uses than redistribution of street
ever before.
space away from car
travel and parking.

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1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

China’s Open Road

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Although we don’t see their vehicles in China is creating a new mobility ecosys- • Apollo Committee
China’s ambition to the West, there are more than 70 Chi- tem that includes electric vehicles, apps, • Baidu
dominate the global nese car manufacturers, and together communications systems, AI, and data—
they produce more cars than any oth- and it intends to ship its products to the • Volvo
car industry is buoyed
er country. For decades, the Chinese West. Baidu’s Apollo is one example of an • Ford
by its manufacturing government has been paving the way open-source self-driving system that could • Geely Group
sector, work in AI, and for joint ventures: Many cars in Beijing become an industry standard. Its partners
• Dongfeng Motor
with foreign badges were actually made include Daimler, BMW, and Ford.
vast troves of driving by domestic auto manufacturers. An • Tencent
data. electric vehicle boom is underway, and
• Great Wall Motors
China’s newest cars are full of high-tech
gadgetry including wrap-around digital
China’s Byton hopes to rival the world’s most dashboards and seats that swivel so pas-
prestigious auto manufacturers.
sengers can enjoy a meal together when
in self-driving mode.

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1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

New Cityscape Designs

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Saudi Arabia is developing futuristic With climate change accelerating, these • Bjarke Ingels Group
Autonomous vehicles, new megacities. A linear city called The projects are an approach to redesigning • Arquitectonica
collaborative drones Line will stretch from the Red Sea to the how we live. We may have little choice, as
mountains of northwest Saudi Arabia sea levels rise and extreme weather events • Rockwell Group
and robots, and AI are
and consolidate urban centers into a force us indoors or even underground. • NEOM CEO Nadhmi Al-Nasr
leading to changes 106-mile-long stretch of land. The entire
in how cities are city will be arranged along a multilev-
el spine, which will include local and
The Line is a linear city proposed in Saudi Arabia.
designed. high-speed transit, a service layer, and a
pedestrian layer. The goal is to preserve
the area’s wilderness, encourage mobility,
and test renewable energies at scale. The
Qiddiya giga-project is a $500 billion bet
on a megacity contained within a 130
square mile site outside of Riyadh, the
KSA’s capital. If these projects are suc-
cessful, they will have advanced technol-
ogies and urban ecosystems that rival any
major city.

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Unified Rules Continental Licenses Uncrossable Border

Mid-future optimistic scenario Mid-future neutral scenario Mid-future catastrophic scenario

Vehicles with level 2 autonomous driving Vehicles will have regional requirements but will Fragmentation of regulation and data privacy
functionality will become mainstream in be interoperable at the continental level. Mean- cause a complete lack of interoperability. You
the next ten years. Multiple manufacturers ing that cars in Europe can function throughout can’t take a car designed for one state to the next
will provide the option to have autono-
most of the European Union and vehicles in due to regulations that limit design, features, and
mous driving installed in new cars as a
America can operate across most states. Stan- functionality. Car manufacturers must design
safety and convenience feature.
dards will be set and will not require significant platforms and brands for specific jurisdictions.
Customers receive full control of their data alterations to be manufactured for all regions. The need for specific jurisdictions removes the
and privacy safeguards installed by manu-
Standardized production will look very similar to ability to have world platforms in manufactur-
facturers. Customers can easily delete data
today’s car manufacturing and internet privacy ing, driving up production costs, dramatically
from cars when they’re resold in the pre-
rules, where products can be made globally and decreasing the speed of improvements, and
owned markets. Rules and regulations are
unified across the globe, so learnings from customized locally. Privacy implementation extending development cycles exponentially.
driving on one side of the world immedi- strives to be done at the most rigorous standard You must stop at every border and create a new
ately improve driving on the other side. for the region in question. account for your car with additional information
and accept the terms and conditions of operating
the vehicle in the next jurisdiction. Certain fea-
tures and functions are enabled or disabled based
on where you are traveling and what terms and
conditions you accept. Insurance may only cover
you in some areas and circumstances.

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1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

Decarbonizing Flight
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

Last year, ZeroAvia successfully com- Aviation contributes 3% of the world’s • ZeroAvia
Hydrogen fuel pleted an 8 minute flight that resulted in total carbon emissions. When flights • Airbus
cells could power no carbon emissions. Using a retrofitted stopped during the COVID-19 pan-
Piper M-Class plane, the test proved that demic, there were noticeable changes
commercial aviation.
hydrogen—which carries little or no car- to air pollution. As air travel returns to
bon footprint—could someday become pre-pandemic levels over the next few
an alternative to fossil fuels. Airbus has years, there will be increased calls to
three hydrogen power programs in the reduce emissions. Hydrogen-powered
works and could start testing commer- planes, while still under development,
cial flights as early as 2025. could be a viable alternative.

Airbus revealed its zero-emissions plane, one of

several hydrogen-powered aircraft projects it has
underway.

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5TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Supersonic Flights
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

After years of successful transatlantic Faster travel between locations could • Aerion Supersonic
Several companies are flights, the age of supersonic jet travel stimulate economic development and • Boom Supersonic
developing technology came to an end in October 2003, when bring cultures closer together. Reduced
British Airways permanently grounded sonic boom will enable flights to take off
to bring back
the Concorde. Driven in part by the over land, overcoming a significant limit-
commercial supersonic enthusiasm and excitement over faster ing factor in the routes that the original
jet travel. autonomous travel, supersonic jets are Concorde could fly. But fuel efficiency
being tested once again. Japan Airlines and safety concerns may slow progress in
invested $10 million in Colorado-based getting supersonic air travel to market in
Boom Supersonic to develop supersonic the short term.
jets, which will travel at 2.2 times the
speed of sound—or about as twice as
fast as a standard aircraft. Japan Airlines
has already preordered 20 such jets, and
Boom unveiled its prototype in October
2020 for test flights in 2021. Aerion
Supersonic in Nevada is also developing
a carbon-neutral supersonic jet that is
expected to take off in 2023.

A sonic boom caused by an F-18 Super Hornet.

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The End of Traffic Pilot Shortages Forgotten Infrastructure

Mid-future optimistic scenario Mid-future neutral scenario Mid-future pessimistic scenario

In the next 10 years, companies master vertical New aircraft are developed but continue to Flying taxis become the method of travel of
takeoff and landing craft that operate similarly to require highly trained and skilled operators like choice for the hyper affluent, who only travel
helicopters but they are affordable, easy to pilot helicopter pilots. Technological advances for in the air. Air transit becomes a lightning rod
and easy to maintain and as cost-efficient as car more economical operation, opening up specific for the global wealth divide, as less is invested
transportation. Commuters increasingly adopt commutes and routes, mostly along existing in land-based transit infrastructure and public
short distance aerial travel as their regular form helicopter routes that will handle increased transportation.
of transportation. This redistributes traffic on capacity due to lower cost. Island hopping and
roadways, which are now dominated only by taking the chopper to the airport will be available
heavy and long-distance transport, while light to the affluent instead of just the hyper-wealthy.
transit takes to the air. The adoption of regulations and infrastructure
modeled after helicopter transport incorporate
more significant pilot assistance systems reflect-
ing autonomous vehicle regulations.

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4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Autonomous Ships
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

IBM and ProMare, a marine research or- Large autonomous ships could transform • ProMare
Efforts are underway ganization, launched a fully autonomous shipping by increasing efficiency, reduc- • Penta
to create autonomous, ship called Mayflower, from Plymouth, ing costs, and reducing human error.
England, last year. It features an AI Electric ships that don’t require human • IBM
AI-powered ships, and
captain that gives the vessel the ability to crews could offer cost savings through- • Marine AI
the legal framework assess its environment and make deci- out the shipping supply chain. They • Yara International
is emerging for them sions at sea with no human captain or could solve labor shortages, increase
• Wärtsilä
onboard crew. Volvo’s maritime sub- safety, and reduce environmental harm.
to operate safely sidiary Penta launched an autonomous The International Maritime Organiza-
and officially in boat docking system—boat captains push tion is performing a scoping exercise
international waters. a button and it docks without human before drafting the legal frameworks
assistance. Norwegian chemical com- for maritime autonomous surface ship
pany Yara International built The Yara travel. In the near to midterm, the goal
Birkeland, an electric container ship sup- is to design AI systems that will support
ported by radar, lidar, machine learning, human-crewed ships.
computer vision, an automatic mooring
system, and a network for cameras.
The company planned to transition the
vessel from human-crewed operation to
remote-crewed operation in 2019, and
Volvo Penta launched an autonomous boat then to autonomous operation in 2020.
docking system. The pandemic slowed the timeline, and
humans are staying on board for now—
which helps with regulatory and insur-
ance complications, too.
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3RD YEAR ON THE LIST

China’s Foreign Infrastructure Investment

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS

China’s Belt and Road Initiative began Critics worry that the debt created by • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
The governments and companies that lead in 2013 and has primarily focused on the project will cause an imbalance of • New Development Bank
international infrastructure projects have investment in infrastructure, education, leverage in geopolitical relations. Many
construction, rail, highway, auto, and of the countries involved are developing • National Development and
powerful influence on setting regional, global, Reform Commission
the electrical grid. The effort is enor- nations that urgently need the infra-
and geopolitical standards. China’s multibillion- mous—roughly 12 times larger than structure, but may have limited ability
dollar Belt and Road Initiative is the source of the U.S.’s Marshall Plan, which helped to handle the debt sustainably. While
Europe rebuild after World War II. China is offering a moratorium on debt
massive investment in infrastructure development, In 2017, the Belt and Road Initiative servicing during 2020, the debts will
including roads, rail, sea, and air travel. The vast involved an estimated 68 countries, 65% eventually come due and require poten-
extent of the investment and partnerships with of the world’s population, and 40% of tially long-term global partnerships to
global gross domestic product. address.
Asian, East African, European, and developing
countries has helped make China the preferred
financier and producer of transport and power
infrastructure on the global geopolitical scene.

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Application

STRATEGY INNOVATION R&D RISK

Information technology, supply chains, Network upgrades, decreased latency, R&D leaders are playing a larger role Trends in networks, transportation,
transportation, and network connec- automated transportation, and new in identifying businesses of the future, logistics, robotics, and transportation
tivity are becoming more complex, delivery options unlock a wide swath of with some asked to present their ideas are complex and involve a tech stack
which will require strategists to be new products, businesses, and opportu- to their executive leadership and that many organizations don’t yet
more agile in near-term planning. nities to grow. The next several years will boards. Going forward, R&D leaders have. Chief risk officers should consid-
Savvy corporate strategists will con- be dynamic, with continual improve- will need to consider a broader range er developing a strategy to optimize
sider how this complexity could lead to ments across many sectors. Innovation of trends. For example, in what ways risk to deliver stronger business mod-
a broad range of possibilities. Rather teams must be prepared to monitor will 5G lead to new business growth in els—rather than using governance to
than waiting for further developments, development and anticipate change. agriculture and finance? An organiza- slow the adoption of emerging tech-
organizations should continually tion’s ability to think beyond existing nologies and standards.
identify signals to inform strategic de- business units will deliver stronger
cisions, monitor outcomes, and deter- outcomes as the trends described in
mine where they can play—and win. this volume mature.

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Key Questions We recommend using this report to support your strategic

foresight activity in the coming year. Every executive team
should begin by asking these questions:

1 2 3

Are we actively What parts of our Are we adequately

?
developing and testing business make us planning for the longer
new ideas related to the vulnerable to disruption term?
trends explored in this in networks, logistics, or
volume? What assumptions must
transportation? When
hold true for our current
was the last time we
In what ways could our strategy to succeed?
audited the systems that
logistics, supply chain, or How will we make
keep those parts of our
communications systems needed changes?
business safe?
be improved?

SEE MORE REPORT & NEW TECH HERE:

TECHNOLOGY & SOFTWARE VIETNAM MARKET

PURCHASING COMMUNITY REPORT COMMUNITY

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Selected Sources
J. W. Romanishin, K. Gilpin and D. Rus, https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/
“M-blocks: Momentum-driven, mag- robotics/military-robots/navy-drone-
netic modular robots,” 2013 IEEE/RSJ boat-swarm-practices-harbor-defense
International Conference on Intelligent
Robots and Systems, Tokyo, Japan, https://www.c4isrnet.com/un-
2013, pp. 4288-4295, doi: 10.1109/ manned/2020/11/24/turkish-firm-
IROS.2013.6696971. develops-ai-powered-software-for-
drone-swarms/
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/
order-from-chaos/2020/10/01/seven- https://www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_
years-into-chinas-belt-and-road/ operations/package_delivery_drone/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/09/ https://www.ncsl.org/research/
china-belt-and-road-initiative-mess- transportation/autonomous-vehi-
not-master-plan/ cles-self-driving-vehicles-enacted-leg-
islation.aspx
https://www.armytimes.com/news/
your-army/2020/11/09/the-army- https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-
looks-at-mass-recharging-for-drone- think/transportation/self-driving/driv-
swarms/ ing-tests-coming-for-autonomous-cars

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war- https //openstreetsproject.org/map-of-

zone/37868/the-army-wants-to- open-streets-initiatives/
launch-drone-swarms-behind-enemy-
lines-from-high-altitude-balloons https://nacto.org/publication/
streets-for-pandemic-response-recov-
https://www.af.mil/Portals/1/ ery/introduction/rethinking-streets-in-
documents/isr/Small_UAS_Flight_ a-time-of-physical-distance/
Plan_2016_to_2036.pdf

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Authors

LEAD AUTHORS

Amy Webb Kristofer “Kriffy” Perez

Founder and CEO Foresight Affiliate
Future Today Institute Future Today Institute
[email protected] [email protected]

Amy Webb pioneered FTI’s data-driven foresight University’s Säid School of Business, was elected a Kristofer “Kriffy” Perez applies years of fintech prod-
methodology that is used within hundreds of organi- life member to the Council on Foreign Relations and uct design and development to guide new companies
zations globally. Her focus is to transform organiza- is a member of the Bretton Woods Committee. She strategically. As a Foresight Affiliate at the Future
tions as they prepare for complex futures. She advises is a member of the World Economic Forum where Today Institute, Kriffy specializes in fintech, banking,
CEOs of the world’s most-admired companies, three- she serves on the Global Future Council on Media, financial services, transportation, product innova-
star admirals and generals, and the senior leadership Entertainment and Culture and the Stewardship tion, and long-term strategy. Previously as a Director
of central banks and intergovernmental organiza- Board of the Forum’s Platform for Shaping the Fu- of North American Product Innovation and Design at
tions. She leads FTI’s technology research initiatives ture of Media, Entertainment and Culture. Webb is Visa, he led product and design teams to deliver new
on AI, synthetic biology and genetic engineering, the bestselling author of several books about strategic product solutions and best-in-class customer-centric
next-generation networks, and quantum technol- foresight and emerging technologies. A lifelong sci- experiences to market-leading financial institutions.
Kriffy has also worked for MasterCard Advisors, the
ogies. Webb is a professor of strategic foresight at ence fiction fan, she collaborates closely with writers
Boston Consulting Group, IBM, and co-founded a
the New York University Stern School of Business, and producers on films, TV shows and commercials
paytech startup. Kriffy has played an integral role in
where she developed and teaches the MBA course on about science, technology and the future.
more than 120 strategic projects across 8 countries
strategic foresight. She is a Visiting Fellow at Oxford
and has filed 15+ patents. Kriffy is a Co-founder and
Managing Director at Global PayTech Ventures,
where he leads strategic advisory.
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Authors

FTI CONTRIBUTORS

Leah Zaidi Ryan Hogan Marc Palatucci

Senior Foresight Associate Foresight Associate Senior Foresight Associate
Future Today Institute Future Today Institute Future Today Institute
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Leah Zaidi is an award-winning futurist with special- Ryan Hogan has advised large-scale internet plat- Marc Palatucci is a Senior Foresight Associate at the School of Individualized Study. Palatucci serves as
izations in systems thinking, worldbuilding, science forms, leading-edge programs in decentralization Future Today Institute, with research specializations editor-at-large for an arts, fashion and culture mag-
fiction prototyping and experiential futures. She is an and space organizations on their futures. He holds an in new realities (AR/ VR/ MR/ DR), digital fashion, azine and collaborates with writers, designers and
Associate Editor of the World Futures Review. She MBA in Strategic Foresight from California College future of work and learning, retail and e-commerce. producers on films, TV shows and commercials about
holds an MDES in Strategic Foresight and Innova- of the Arts and a BA in Art and Philosophy from He co-leads the MBA course in strategic foresight at science, technology and the future.
tion from OCAD University and a BA from York Freed-Hardeman University. the New York University Stern School of Business.
University. Palatucci serves on the World Health Organization’s
Learning Strategy Advisory Group and is a Senior
Deputy to the World Economic Forum’s Platform for
Shaping the Future of Media, Entertainment and Cul-
ture. He holds an MBA in Emerging Technology from
New York University’s Stern School of Business and a
BA in Linguistics and Languages from NYU’s Gallatin

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Authors

ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTORS EDITORIAL

Sarah Kaufman Jennifer Alsever Cheryl Cooney Tom Foster

Associate Director Editorial Director Director of Operations Editor
NYU Rudin Center for Transportation Future Today Institute Future Today Institute
[email protected] [email protected] Sarah Johnson
Editor
Sarah Kaufman leads projects related to smart cities, Jennifer Alsever is the Future Today Institute’s For over a decade, Cheryl Cooney has served as the
mobility, urban planning, policy, and improving Editorial Director. She has been a journalist for more Future Today Institute’s director of operations, where
transportation through technology. than two decades covering tech, biotech, startups and she manages workflows, planning and logistics.
business for such publications as Fortune Magazine, Cooney is a published poet, with works appearing in
the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Wired American and Australian anthologies.
and Fast Company. A popular young adult fiction
writer, Alsever has won multiple YA awards for her
Trinity Forest Series.

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Authors

CREATIVE BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

Emily Caufield Julia Durgee Mel Blake

Creative Director Artist and Futurist Business Development
Future Today Institute [email protected]
[email protected]

Emily Caufield is an award-winning designer and Julia Durgee is a rare left and right-brained MBA with Mel Blake handles commercial development and
illustrator. Serving as FTI’s creative for more than a creative, strategic, analytical, and digital experience at client relations for FTI. He was formerly founder
decade, Caufield applies design thinking to visually world-class brands. She illustrated the portraits that and managing director of Monitor Talent, a speaker
communicate complex trends, scenarios and foresight appear in this year’s trend report. agency he founded at the Monitor Group, a global
research. Caufield designed all aspects of this year’s consulting firm. He is a board member of The Yale
trend report. She is a graduate of Boston University’s Center for Customer Insights. He holds an MBA
College of Fine Arts. from the Yale School of Management and a BA in
Economics from Wesleyan University.

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Why FTI

We answer your most challenging questions using data, We support executive leaders and their teams.
creative inquiry, and strategic foresight.
The Future Today Institute works closely with executive leadership and management
teams to transform their strategic thinking on the future. Advisory services include
• What are plausible deep (20+ years), long-range (10+ years), and near-term
signal mapping, trend identification, scenario development, risk modeling, visioning,
(2+ years) futures?
and strategic planning.
• What scenarios describe our futures?

• What’s happening outside my industry that I should know?

• What companies, startups, and partners make up our future value network?

• What new products, services, or businesses should we build?

• Which tech trends should we monitor? When should we act?

• How can we build an early warning system to see the next disruptive event?

• How do we reduce uncertainty about our futures?

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About the Future Today Institute

Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute researches, mod- Contact Us

els, and prototypes future risk and opportunity. As the lead- The Future Today Institute
ing strategic foresight and futures management consultants 33 Irving Place
to executive leadership teams worldwide, FTI’s data-driven 10th Floor
New York, NY 10003
applied research reveals trends and calculates how they will
disrupt business, government, and society. [email protected]

267-342-4300
Together with our clients and partners, FTI is helping leaders
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achieve their preferred futures. Our pioneering, data-driven
forecasting methodology and tools empower leaders to make
better decisions about the future, today.

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Disclaimer
The views expressed herein are the authors’ own and are not representative of the
greater organizations in which they have been employed. The names of companies,
services, and products mentioned in this report are not necessarily intended as en-
dorsements by the Future Today Institute or this report’s authors.

The Future Today Institute’s 2021 Tech Trends Report relies on data, analysis, and
modeling from a number of sources, which includes sources within public and private
companies, securities filings, patents, academic research, government agencies,
market research firms, conference presentations and papers, and news media stories.
Additionally, this report draws from the Future Today Institute’s previous EMT Trends
Reports, FTI Trend Reports, and newsletters. FTI’s reports are occasionally updated on
the FTI website.

FTI advises hundreds of companies and organizations, some of which are referenced
in this report. FTI does not own any equity position in any of the entities listed in this
presentation.

Any trademarks or service marks used in this report are the marks of their respective
owners, who do not endorse the statements in this report. All rights in marks are re-
served by their respective owners. We disclaim any and all warranties, expressed or
implied, with respect to this report.

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Using and Sharing The Material In This Report

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This is volume 10 in the Future Today

Institute’s 2021 Tech Trends Report. Each
volume covers a different set of topics.

To find additional volumes, visit

www.futuretodayinstitute.com/trends