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Opm - Case 2 Forecasting - Solve

The document provides instructions and data to forecast sales for periods 4-6 using three different forecasting techniques: a two-period moving average, a two-period weighted average, and exponential smoothing. For each technique, the actual sales, forecast, errors, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are calculated. Based on the results, the exponential smoothing technique had the lowest MAD, MSE, and MAPE, suggesting it is the most appropriate forecasting technique to use for this data.

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Farabi Siddiqui
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
77 views

Opm - Case 2 Forecasting - Solve

The document provides instructions and data to forecast sales for periods 4-6 using three different forecasting techniques: a two-period moving average, a two-period weighted average, and exponential smoothing. For each technique, the actual sales, forecast, errors, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are calculated. Based on the results, the exponential smoothing technique had the lowest MAD, MSE, and MAPE, suggesting it is the most appropriate forecasting technique to use for this data.

Uploaded by

Farabi Siddiqui
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

UIU

SOBE
Case # 2, Forecasting

1. a. Prepare the forecast for period 4 to 6 using each of these approaches:


-A two-period moving average
-A two-period weighted average using weights of .80 (most recent), .20
-Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25
b. Calculate MAD, MSE and MAPE for all the forecast and suggest the appropriate
technique to use.
UPLOAD YOUR ANSWER WORD FILE/ PDF/ PICTURE USING THE LINK
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc_mtWlQmia-
oeaoApmrCJCjY0F1ReCtxNi4ykixKZ1NQWyOA/viewform?usp=sf_link

Forecasting Method: two-period moving average


Perio Forecast
Actual Sales
d (A-F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 (|A-F|/Actual)*100
1 55 60 -5 5 25 9.09
2 40 45 -5 5 25 12.5
3 30 39 -9 9 81 30
4 45 35 10 10 100 22.22
5 50 37.5 12.5 12.5 156.25 25
6 40 47.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 18.75
-4 49 443.5 117.56
MAD: 8.17 MSE: 88.7 MAPE: 19.59

Forecasting Method: weighted average


Perio Forecast
Actual Sales
d (A-F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 (|A-F|/Actual)*100
1 55 60 -5 5 25 9.09
2 40 45 -5 5 25 12.5
3 30 39 -9 9 81 30
4 45 32 13 13 169 28.89
5 50 42 8 8 64 16
6 40 49 -9 9 81 22.5
-7 49 445 118.98
MAD: 8.17 MSE: 89 MAPE: 19.83

CASE 2: FORECASTING (MT) Page 1 of 2


UIU
SOBE
Case # 2, Forecasting

Forecasting Method: Exponential smoothing


Perio Forecast
Actual Sales
d (A-F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 (|A-F|/Actual)*100
1 55 60 -5 5 25 9.09
2 40 45 -5 5 25 12.5
3 30 39 -9 9 81 30
4 45 36.75 8.25 8.25 68.06 18.33
5 50 38.81 11.19 11.19 125.22 22.38
6 40 41.61 -1.61 1.61 2.59 4.02
-1.17 40.05 326.87 96.32
MAD: 6.68 MSE: 65.37 MAPE: 16.05

CASE 2: FORECASTING (MT) Page 2 of 2

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