PART 7 - TOPIC 2

CONSEQUENCE MODELING USING

ALOHA

Dr. Arshad Ahmad

Email: [email protected]
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Software Commonly used for Risk Analysis
Software Application
SAFETI Onshore Risk Analysis.
SFU Offshore Risk Analysis.
CAFTAN Fault Tree Analysis.
ETRA Event Tree Analysis.
HAZSEC. HAZOP Study.
HAZTRAC. HAZOP Recommendation Tracking.
PHAST. Consequence Analysis.
WHAZAN Consequence Analysis.
EFFECTS. Consequence (Effects) Modeling.
DAMAGE Consequence (Damage) Modeling.
PC-FACTS. Failure & Accident Databank.
ASAP Event Tree Analysis.
FMECA Failure Mode Effects & Criticality Analysis.
ANEX Life Time Analysis & Failure Estimation.

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Software Commonly used for Risk Analysis
Software Application
ALOHA Consequence Analysis
CLASS Hazardous Area Risk & Classifications
RISK CURVES TNO Individual & Group Risk computations
RISKA T Risk Analysis model of Health & Safety Executives, UK
E&P FORUM Hydrocarbon Leak & Ignition Database.
FACTS TNO Frequency Estimation Database
OREDA DNV Frequency Estimation Database
FRED Consequence Analysis software of Shell, UK
EAHAP Consequence modeling software of Energy Analysts Inc. US)

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 What is CAMEO?
§  CAMEO is computer software primarily used:
•  For chemical emergency planning
•  For chemical response; and
•  For regulatory compliance
§  The overall CAMEO system is a suite of three separate,
integrated software applications:
®
•  CAMEO (Computer aided management of emergency operation)
®
•  MARPLOT (Mapping application for response and planning of local
operational task)
®
•  ALOHA (Areal locations of hazardous atmosphere)
§  Developed by:
•  EPA’s Chemical Emergency Preparedness and Prevention Office
•  NOAA’s Hazardous Materials Response and Assessment Division

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 CAMEO Answers Questions
§  What hazards are at this site?
§  Where is the hazard located?
§  What is the chemical?
§  What specific hazard(s) does it present?
§  How can the hazard be mitigated?

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 Cameo Module Relationships
Toxic Release Chemicals in Inventory/
Inventory Storage
Transit
Locations

Chemical
Information Screening &
Scenarios

Facilities

Incidents Routes

Special Contacts Resources

Locations
Census Data

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 ALOHA

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 What is ALOHA
§  Air hazard modeling program
§  Predicts how quickly chemical will escape from a tank,
puddle, gas pipeline etc
§  Model how gas travel downwind (include neutrally buoyant
and heavy gas dispersion)
§  Model fire and explosion (pool, jet, flash, BLEVE, VCE)
§  Produces threat zone estimate, showing area of hazards
(toxicity, thermal radiation)
§  Threat zones can me mapped into MARPLOT, Google maps,
Google earth

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http://www2.epa.gov/cameo/aloha-software. http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/aloha
http://www2.epa.gov/cameo/aloha-software. http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/aloha
[email protected]
[email protected]
Example of ALOHA’s Output
ALOHA runs on both Windows and Macintosh computers.
ALOHA runs on both Windows and Macintosh computers.

Sample ALOHA
Sample Output
ALOHA Output

Some
Somesample
sampleALOHA
ALOHAoutput.
output.OnOn
thethe
left,left,
thethe
circular thermal
circular thermalradiation threat
radiation zone
threat zoneestimates
estimatesforfora aBLEVE.
BLEVE.On
Onthe
theright,
right,aathreat
threat
point graph shows Threat Zones
the toxic concentration hazard over time at a specific location; theConcentration at a point
horizontal lines show how the concentration
point graph shows the toxic concentration hazard over time at a specific location; the horizontal lines show how the concentration
compares
comparesto the chosen
to the toxic
chosen levels
toxic of concern.
levels of concern.

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 GIS-Compatible Output
azardous
hat data. GIS® Compatible Output
ALOHA’s threat zones can be displayed on maps in
MARPLOT , another program in the CAMEO suite.

ut,
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uds,
plosions),
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g on the
mal
A sample ALOHA threat zone estimate shown on a MARPLOT
al spills map (key locations of concern were
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innovative in MARPLOT).
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 Fire and Explosion

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 Pool Fire

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 Pool Fire

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 Jet Fire

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 Jet Fire

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 BLEVE Fireball Model

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 BLEVE Fireball Model

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Flash Fire & Vapor Cloud Explosion Model

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 Flash Fire & Vapor Cloud Explosion Model

§  Vapor cloud explosion major assumptions:

•  Uses Baker-Strehlow-Tang methodology
•  Flammable mass (0.9LEL - UEL)
•  Explosion efficiency
•  Detonation – 100%
•  Deflagration – 20%
•  Ignition options
•  “Hard” – ~106 Joules
•  “Soft” – ~1 Joule

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Flash Fire & Vapor Cloud Explosion Model

§  Vapor cloud explosion major assumptions: (cont.)

•  Congestion options
•  High – area blockage ratio > 40%
•  Low – area blockage ratio < 10%

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Flash Fire & Vapor Cloud Explosion Model

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 Example

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Example: Facility Siting Case Study

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 Example: Facility Siting Case Study

§  Release through 3-inch relief valve leading to:

•  Jet fire
•  Flash fire
•  Vapor cloud explosion
§  Failure of storage vessel engulfed in flames leading to:
•  BLEVE fireball

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Facility Siting Case Study – BLEVE & Fireball

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Facility Siting Case Study – Jet Fire Results

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Facility Siting Case Study – VCE Detonation

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Facility Siting Case Study – VCE Deflagration

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Facility Siting Case Study – Combined

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 ALOHA Scenario
§  In a transportation accident at km 182 of Southbound North-South
Expressway in Nilai, a 9000 Gallon tank truck carrying ammonia
overturns and shears off a flange whose diameter is 4 inches. The size
of the tank is 24 feet long and 8 feet in diameter. The tank contains
liquid, which is stored at ambient temperature. The fill density of the
tank is 75% by volume. The sheared-off flange creates a circular
opening of about 3 inches in diameter, and it is located at 30% of the
way to the top of the tank.
§  At the time of the accident, the wind direction is NE (i.e. blowing from
NE), the wind speed is 3 m/s, measured at 10 m height. The accident
occurred on a highway near a small village. The weather is partly
cloudy, 80% relative humidity, and the temperature is 32 degrees
Celsius.

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 Mapping Aloha Threat
Zones into Google Earth

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Displaying Aloha Threat zones on Google Earth
§  Step 1: Create any Threat Zone in ALOHA; for example you
could enter the following criteria as an example:

SITE DATA: ATMOSPHERIC DATA: (MANUAL INPUT OF

•  Location: STILLWATER, OKLAHOMA DATA)
•  Building Air Exchanges Per Hour: 0.93 •  Wind: 10 miles/hour from n at 3 meters
(unsheltered single storied) •  Ground Roughness: open country Cloud
•  Time: December 19, 2011 1000 hours CST (using Cover: 5 tenths
computer's clock) •  Air Temperature: 66° F Stability Class: D
•  No Inversion Height Relative Humidity:
CHEMICAL DATA: 50%
Chemical Name: CHLORINE Molecular Weight:  
70.91 g/mol SOURCE STRENGTH:
•  AEGL-1 (60 min): 0.5 ppm AEGL-2 (60 min): 2 •  Direct Source: 200 pounds/min Source
ppm AEGL-3 (60 min): 20 ppm Height: 0
•  IDLH: 10 ppm •  Release Duration: 10 minutes
•  Ambient Boiling Point: -30.5° F •  Release Rate: 200 pounds/min
•  Vapor Pressure at Ambient Temperature: greater •  Total Amount Released: 2,000 pounds
than 1 atm •  Note: This chemical may flash boil and/or
•  Ambient Saturation Concentration: 1,000,000 result in two phase flow.
ppm or 100.0%

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Displaying Aloha Threat zones on Google Earth
§  Step 1: Select the Display / Threat Zone menu
§  Step 3: Accept the Level of Concern values 
§  ALOHA should now display the Threat Zone graph

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Displaying Aloha Threat zones on Google Earth

§  Step 4: To display this graph on Google Earth, you MUST

know the specific Latitude / Longitude of the release point.
If you don’t know the Lat / Long value, you can determine it
by using MARPLOT, or Google Earth, a hand-held GPS unit,
etc.
•  For my example, I am using the following Lat / Long coordinates as
the release point: 34.726930°N 99.389449°W
§  Step 5: After you have determined the exact Lat / Long
coordinates, return to ALOHA with the Threat Zone
displayed 
§  Step 6: Select the “File à Export Threat Zones” menu

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Displaying Aloha Threat zones on Google Earth

Step 7: Choose “PAS” if exporting to ArcView using the ArcMap Import Tool or Choose
“KML” if exporting to Google Earth

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Displaying Aloha Threat zones on Google Earth
§  Step 8: Enter the Lat / Long values

§  Step 9: Select OK

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Displaying Aloha Threat zones on Google Earth
§  Step 10: Name the file and save to your computer desktop; in my
example, I have named the file ALOHA Chlorine Threat Zone.kml

§  Step 11: Save the file

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Displaying Aloha Threat zones on Google Earth
§  Step 12: Go to your computer desktop
§  Step 13: Find the saved KML file and double-click on it

 This should launch Google Earth and automatically zoom-in and display the Threat
Zone at the specified Lat / Long position.
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 GROUP PROJECT
§  Carry out QRA on the scenario given
§  Plot the individual risks on Google map/ Google earth
§  Prepare a written report (20-30 pages)
§  Prepare for oral presentation
§  Oral presentation is expected in 3 weeks
§  Written report shall be due in 4 weeks

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 End of Lecture

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