Public Policy and Strategy

MODULE: C312 M412 | PRODUCT: 4533

Public Policy and Strategy
Module Introduction and Overview

Contents
1 Introduction to the Module 2

2 The Module Author 3

3 Study Resources 4

4 Learning Outcomes 5

5 Module Overview 6
 Public Policy and Strategy

1 Introduction to the Module

Welcome to this module on public policy and strategy. Strategy is a term
that has become very common in both business and government, and it is
likely that you have your own understanding of what it may mean. This
module sets out to explore the meaning of strategy generally, and more
specifically as a feature of the work of governments and public authorities.
It is written for people who are engaged in the processes of strategy devel-
opment, policy-making, implementation and evaluation, whether as profes-
sionals, politicians, advisors or citizens.
The module is designed to be useful for you, working in a variety of public
policy contexts – our students live and work in countries that range from
democracies to dictatorships, from stable and peaceful to post-conflict
reconstructions, from places where the state takes up more than half of
national resources to places where the state’s writ runs very small.
While the module is designed to apply to a wide variety of situations,
certain assumptions underpin the material:
• that there is a functioning government, or elements of government
• that policies are made and the institutional arrangements are in place
for policy to be implemented
• that the governments in place have responsibility for, at least to some
extent, the interests of the people
• that there are processes of policy making and strategic implementation
that go beyond the naked Public Policy and Strategy
• pursuit of power and self-interest by the ruling elites.
The core of the module is a ‘rational’ approach to policy making and strate-
gic implementation, an approach that includes problem analysis, stakehold-
er analysis, an evaluation of options, the choice of policy instruments, the
allocation of resources and construction of programmes, and their methods
of monitoring and evaluation. That is not to say that the strategic process
always occurs in this linear, rational and logical way, and you will be asked
to think critically about how policy is made in the real world in different
social, economic, cultural and political contexts. We use the ‘rational’ model
as a heuristic device, since it sets out the possible elements of a policy
process.
The module begins with a review of the meaning of strategy itself, and of
what it means to describe a phenomenon as strategic. The origins of the term
are traced far back into history, and we encounter Sun Tzu, a strategist from
ancient China, for the first time in Unit 1 – his ideas have been influential for
more than two thousand years, and he will crop up a number of times
during the rest of the module. Unit 1 also draws important distinctions
between strategy in the public and private contexts, and explores the simi-
larities and, more importantly differences, between them.
 Unit 2 broadens the discussion to highlight the importance of a number of
contextual factors. Governments and public authorities operate in situations
which vary in many different ways, and we explore how context influences
the sorts of issues which arise, the shape they might take, and the constraints
and opportunities which they impose.
In Unit 3, we look in more depth at how Governments come to identify
problems which demand a strategic response, learning how this may come
from their importance, but also from coincidences of influence, circumstance
and chance. Ways in which strategic issues can be better understood are
discussed, along with the roles that different distinct groups in society –
stakeholders – may play.
Unit 4 pauses to consider the relevance of theories of complexity to the
understanding of public policy, and how strategy can play a role in coping
with apparently intractable situations. It then moves on to consider how
strategies themselves can come into being, a theme followed through to Unit
5, which looks at ways to choose the policy instruments best suited to
delivering your strategic goals.
Unit 6 considers in depth the critical stage of moving from a strategy on paper
to concrete actions on the ground, emphasising the importance of making
sure the entire system is mobilised, from the politicians right through to the
‘street level bureaucrats’. Unit 7 looks at how the success or shortcomings of
strategy can be understood and evaluated, and how information can be used
to manage performance to make final success more likely.
Unit 8 deals with three main issues. Firstly, it offers practical advice on
getting started on an actual strategic planning exercise, and the relevance of
the idea of the strategic state. It then takes a cross-national perspective, and
considers how policy ideas move between different places and situations,
before concluding with some thoughts on how the world is changing during
the second decade of the twenty-first century, and the implications for
strategy into the future.

2 The Module Author

John Bell
John Bell is Senior Partner with the CurvedThinking partnership, a UK
policy and evaluation consultancy working with clients around the world to
help make the link between intention and delivery. John has been a CeFiMS
tutor since 2009. He has particular experience in social policy in Britain and
Europe, and is specialist advisor on youth unemployment and the European
Social Fund to the House of Lords European Union Committee. He has
worked on numerous research, evaluation and policy consultancy assign-
ments from cross national programmes to the smallest local projects, and is
an experienced trainer and writer, including authoring CeFiMS modules on
 Public Policy and Strategy

evaluation and perspective on public policy. You can find out more about
his work and interests at www.curvedthinking.com

3 Study Resources
This study guide comprises eight sequential units. Each unit provides a
discussion of different aspects of strategy in a public policy context, begin-
ning with first principles and concluding with perspectives on strategic
issues for the future. The narrative is supplemented with exercises and
questions for you to consider, and in a number of places you are encouraged
to share your ideas and responses on the virtual learning environment (VLE)
with your fellow students.
At the start of your module you will also be made aware of which members
of CeFiMS will be tutoring during this session. Your tutors are there to help
you, in addition to comments and questions they may post to the group, and
you should also not hesitate to contact them directly for help, advice and
guidance at any time.

 Key texts
In addition to the study guide, you will be assigned chapters in the follow-
ing key texts.
Michael Barber (2015) How to Run A Government: So that Citizens Benefit and
Taxpayers Don't Go Crazy. London: Penguin Books.
This relatively short book was written by a senior public official in the UK’s
Labour governments which held power between 1997 and 2010, and offers
an insider’s perspective on the exercise of power from the centre. This
period saw attempts to make significant changes to the way government
operated, in particular a search for ways to obtain better outcomes, and to
overcome departmental barriers and rivalries. It also includes examples
from many other countries.
John M Bryson (2018) Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit
Organizations. 5th Edition. Hoboken NJ: John Wiley & Son.
John Bryson’s book was first published in 1993, and has been regularly
updated and expanded over the years to become one of the standard practi-
cal guides for those embarking on strategic planning exercises. It includes
valuable tools and guidance on putting into effect the theoretical lessons
from this module, and in addition to the set chapters you may well find it of
practical use in your professional life.
Paul Joyce (2015) Strategic Management in the Public Sector. Oxford UK:
Routledge.
Where Barber takes a populist stance, and Bryson offers practical tools, Paul
Joyce is unashamedly academic in his approach. One of the leading writers
on strategic issues and the public sector globally, this is his latest book, and
 includes a wide variety of perspectives on different aspects of strategic
management, including cross-country comparisons and examples from
different types of country and political systems.

Module readings
In addition to readings from the key texts, each unit also includes specific
supplementary readings relevant to the unit topics. These include articles
from academic journals; chapters from books of different kinds; and a
variety of public policy documents, reports and papers related to strategic
issues. One particular feature is a linked set of material from the Australian
State of Tasmania, tracing the development and implementation of its
strategy for population growth from 2016 onwards.

4 Learning Outcomes
When you have completed your study of this module, you will be able to:
• define the meaning of strategy, and what makes an issue strategic, in a
public policy context, including how this differs from private sector
strategy
• identify the ways in which key contextual factors shape and constrain
how public sector strategy is made, including the physical and socio-
economic environment, and political and administrative systems
• explain how strategic issues come onto the political agenda of
governments, how they are understood, and the roles of different
types of stakeholder
• describe how to begin the process of strategic planning, taking into
account the complexity of public policy and the business of
government
• assess the potential use of different types of policy instrument and
how strategy helps in making choices over which actions to adopt
• explain how to move from strategic planning as a conceptual exercise
to the practical issues involved in putting your plan into effect and
mobilising the system for its delivery
• define the differences between performance management, monitoring
and evaluation, and explain the importance of the principal-agent
problem, and different ways of evaluating the results of strategic plans
• describe what is meant by the Strategic State, and its relationship to
the ‘science of delivery’, and explain how policy ideas and innovations
travel from one place to another.
 Public Policy and Strategy

5 Module Overview
Unit 1 Strategy and the Policy Process
1.1 The Meaning of Strategy
1.2 Public Policy and Strategy
1.3 Public/Private Differences
1.4 Strategic Issues
1.5 Conclusion

Unit 2 The Contexts for Strategy

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Political and Institutional Context
2.3 Economic and Market Context
2.4 Geographical and Environmental Context
2.5 Technological Context
2.6 Social and Demographic Context
2.7 Conclusion

Unit 3 Strategic Issues, Stakeholders and Evidence

3.1 Strategic Policy Making
3.2 The Emergence of Strategic Issues
3.3 Stakeholders
3.4 Issue Definition and the Use of Evidence
3.5 Tasmania’s Population Issue: Stakeholders and Data
3.6 Conclusion

Unit 4 Complexity, and How to Produce a Strategic Plan

4.1 Complexity
4.2 The Formation of Strategy
4.3 Case Study: Tasmania’s Population Growth Strategy
4.4 Conclusion

Unit 5 Strategy into Practice: Approaches and Instruments

5.1 What Are We Going to Do?
5.2 Choosing Instruments
5.3 Strategic Approaches to Choice of Action
5.4 Case Study: China's Policies for Elderly Care
5.5 Conclusion

Unit 6 Implementation
6.1 Engaging the System
6.2 Institutions for Implementation
6.3 Case Study 1: Network Implementation
6.4 Case Study 2: Population Policy in Ghana
6.5 Conclusion
Unit 7 Reviewing Strategy: Performance Management, Monitoring
and Evaluation
7.1 Introduction
7.2 The Context for Monitoring, Evaluation and Performance Management
7.3 Reviewing Strategy
7.4 Performance Management and The Principal–Agent Problem
7.5 Monitoring Strategy
7.6 Aspects of Evaluation
7.7 Strategy and Policy Evaluation

Unit 8 Strategic Futures, and the Future of Strategy

8.1 Introduction
8.2 Getting Started on Strategic Planning
8.3 The Strategic State and Science of Delivery
8.4 Policy Networks and Policy Transfer
8.5 Shared Imagining
Assessment
Your performance on each module is assessed through two written assignments
and one examination. The assignments are written after Unit 4 and Unit 8 of the
module session. Please see the VLE for submission deadlines. The examination is
taken at a local examination centre in September/October.

Preparing for assignments and exams

The examinations you will sit are designed to evaluate your knowledge and skills
in the subjects you have studied; they are not designed to trick you. If you have
studied the module thoroughly, you will pass the exam.

Understanding assessment questions

Examination and assignment questions are set to test your knowledge and skills.
Sometimes a question will contain more than one part, each part testing a
different aspect of your skills and knowledge. You need to spot the key words to
know what is being asked of you. Here we categorise the types of things that are
asked for in assignments and exams, and the words used. All the examples are
from the Centre for Financial and Management Studies examination papers and
assignment questions.

Definitions
Some questions mainly require you to show that you have learned some concepts by setting
out their precise meanings. Such questions are likely to be preliminary and will be
supplemented by more analytical questions. Generally, ‘Pass marks’ are awarded if the answer
only contains definitions. These questions will contain words such as:
 describe  contrast
 define  write notes on
 examine  outline
 distinguish between  what is meant by
 compare  list.

Reasoning
Other questions are designed to test your reasoning, by asking you to explain cause and effect.
Convincing explanations generally carry more marks than basic definitions. These questions
will include words such as:
 interpret
 explain
 what conditions influence
 what are the consequences of
 what are the implications of.

Judgement
Others ask you to make a judgement, perhaps of a policy or a course of action. They will
include words like:
 evaluate
 critically examine
  assess
 do you agree that
 to what extent does.

Calculation
Sometimes you are asked to make a calculation using a specified technique; these questions
begin:
 use indifference curve analysis to
 using any economic model you know
 calculate the standard deviation
 test whether.
It is most likely that questions that ask you to make a calculation will also ask for an
application or interpretation of the result.

Advice
Other questions ask you to provide advice in a particular situation. This applies to law
questions and to policy papers where advice is asked in relation to a policy problem. Your
advice should be based on relevant law, applicable principles, and evidence of what actions
are likely to be effective. The questions may begin:
 advise
 provide advice on
 explain how you would advise.

Critique
In many cases the question will include the word ‘critically’. This means that you are expected
to look at the question from at least two points of view, offering a critique of each view and
your judgement. You are expected to be critical of what you have read.
The questions may begin:
 critically analyse
 critically consider
 critically assess
 critically discuss the argument that.

Examine by argument
Questions that begin with ‘discuss’ are similar; they ask you to examine by argument, to
debate and give reasons for and against a variety of options. For example:
 discuss the advantages and disadvantages of
 discuss this statement
 discuss the view that
 discuss the arguments and debates concerning.

The grading scheme: assignments

The assignment questions contain fairly detailed guidance about what is required.
All assignments are marked using marking guidelines. When you receive your
grade, it is accompanied by comments on your paper, including advice about how
you might improve, and any clarifications about matters you may not have
understood. These comments are designed to help you master the subject and to
improve your skills as you progress through your programme.

Postgraduate assignment marking criteria

The marking scheme for your programme draws upon these minimum core
criteria, which are applicable to the assessment of all assignments:
• understanding of the subject
• utilisation of proper academic or other style (eg citation of references, or use
of proper legal style for court reports)
• relevance of material selected and arguments proposed
• planning and organisation
• logical coherence
• critical evaluation
• comprehensiveness of research
• evidence of synthesis
• innovation/creativity/originality.
The language used must be of a sufficient standard to permit assessment of these
aspects.
The guidelines below reflect the standards of work expected at postgraduate
level. All assessed work is marked by your tutor or a member of academic staff,
and a sample is then moderated by another member of academic staff. Any
assignment may be made available to the external examiner(s).

80+ (Distinction). A mark of 80+ will fulfil the following criteria:

• very significant ability to plan, organise and execute independently a
research project or coursework assignment
• very significant ability to evaluate literature and theory critically and make
informed judgements
• very high levels of creativity, originality and independence of thought
• very significant ability to critically evaluate existing methodologies and
suggest new approaches to current research or professional practice
• very significant ability to analyse data critically
• outstanding levels of accuracy, technical competence, organisation and
expression.

70–79 (Distinction). A mark in the range 70–79 will fulfil the following criteria:
• significant ability to plan, organise and execute independently a research
project or coursework assignment
• clear evidence of wide and relevant reading, referencing and an
engagement with the conceptual issues
• capacity to develop a sophisticated and intelligent argument
• rigorous use and a sophisticated understanding of relevant source
materials, balancing appropriately between factual detail and key
theoretical issues. Materials are evaluated directly, and their assumptions
and arguments challenged and/or appraised
 • correct referencing
• significant ability to analyse data critically
• original thinking and a willingness to take risks.

60–69 (Merit). A mark in the 60–69 range will fulfil the following criteria:
• ability to plan, organise and execute independently a research project or
coursework assignment
• strong evidence of critical insight and thinking
• a detailed understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical issues and
direct engagement with the relevant literature on the topic
• clear evidence of planning and appropriate choice of sources and
methodology with correct referencing
• ability to analyse data critically
• capacity to develop a focused and clear argument and articulate clearly and
convincingly a sustained train of logical thought.

50–59 (Pass). A mark in the range 50–59 will fulfil the following criteria:
• ability to plan, organise and execute a research project or coursework
assignment
• a reasonable understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical issues
involved
• evidence of some knowledge of the literature with correct referencing
• ability to analyse data
• examples of a clear train of thought or argument
• the text is introduced and concludes appropriately.

40–49 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases in which there is:

• limited ability to plan, organise and execute a research project or
coursework assignment
• some awareness and understanding of the literature and of factual or
theoretical issues, but with little development
• limited ability to analyse data
• incomplete referencing
• limited ability to present a clear and coherent argument.

20–39 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases in which there is:

• very limited ability to plan, organise and execute a research project or
coursework assignment
• failure to develop a coherent argument that relates to the research project
or assignment
• no engagement with the relevant literature or demonstrable knowledge of
the key issues
• incomplete referencing
• clear conceptual or factual errors or misunderstandings
• only fragmentary evidence of critical thought or data analysis.
0–19 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases in which there is:
• no demonstrable ability to plan, organise and execute a research project or
coursework assignment
• little or no knowledge or understanding related to the research project or
assignment
• little or no knowledge of the relevant literature
• major errors in referencing
• no evidence of critical thought or data analysis
• incoherent argument.

The grading scheme: examinations

The written examinations are ‘unseen’ (you will only see the paper in the exam
centre) and written by hand over a three-hour period. We advise that you
practise writing exams in these conditions as part of your examination
preparation, as it is not something you would normally do.
You are not allowed to take in books or notes to the exam room. This means that
you need to revise thoroughly in preparation for each exam. This is especially
important if you have completed the module in the early part of the year, or in a
previous year.
Details of the general definitions of what is expected in order to obtain a
particular grade are shown below. These guidelines take account of the fact that
examination conditions are less conducive to polished work than the conditions
in which you write your assignments. Note that as the criteria for each grade rise,
they accumulate the elements of the grade below. Assignments awarded better
marks will therefore have become comprehensive in both their depth of core
skills and advanced skills.

Postgraduate unseen written examinations marking criteria

80+ (Distinction). A mark of 80+ will fulfil the following criteria:
• very significant ability to evaluate literature and theory critically and make
informed judgements
• very high levels of creativity, originality and independence of thought
• outstanding levels of accuracy, technical competence, organisation and
expression
• outstanding ability of synthesis under exam pressure.

70–79 (Distinction). A mark in the 70–79 range will fulfil the following criteria:
• clear evidence of wide and relevant reading and an engagement with the
conceptual issues
• development of a sophisticated and intelligent argument
• rigorous use and a sophisticated understanding of relevant source
materials, balancing appropriately between factual detail and key
theoretical issues
 • direct evaluation of materials, and challenging and/or appraisal of their
assumptions and arguments
• original thinking and a willingness to take risks
• significant ability of synthesis under exam pressure.

60–69 (Merit). A mark in the 60–69 range will fulfil the following criteria:
• strong evidence of critical insight and critical thinking
• a detailed understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical issues and
direct engagement with the relevant literature on the topic
• development of a focused and clear argument, with clear and convincing
articulation of a sustained train of logical thought
• clear evidence of planning and appropriate choice of sources and
methodology, and ability of synthesis under exam pressure.

50–59 (Pass). A mark in the 50–59 range will fulfil the following criteria:
• a reasonable understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical issues
involved
• evidence of planning and selection from appropriate sources
• some demonstrable knowledge of the literature
• the text shows, in places, examples of a clear train of thought or argument
• the text is introduced and concludes appropriately.

40–49 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases in which:

• there is some awareness and understanding of the factual or theoretical
issues, but with little development
• misunderstandings are evident
• there is some evidence of planning, although irrelevant/unrelated material
or arguments are included.

20–39 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases which:

• fail to answer the question or to develop an argument that relates to the
question set
• do not engage with the relevant literature or demonstrate a knowledge of
the key issues
• contain clear conceptual or factual errors or misunderstandings.

0–19 (Fail). A Fail will be awarded in cases which:

• show no knowledge or understanding related to the question set
• show no evidence of critical thought or analysis
• contain short answers and incoherent argument.
[2015–16: Learning & Teaching Quality Committee]
DO NOT REMOVE THE QUESTION PAPER FROM THE EXAMINATION HALL

UNIVERSITY OF LONDON

CENTRE FOR FINANCIAL AND MANAGEMENT STUDIES

MSc Examination
Postgraduate Diploma Examination
for External Students
91DFMC312
FMM312

POLICY STUDIES
PUBLIC POLICY AND MANAGEMENT

Public Policy and Strategy

Specimen Examination

This is a specimen examination paper designed to show you the type of examination you
will have at the end of this module. The number of questions and the structure of the
examination will be the same but the wording and the requirements of each question will
be different. Best wishes for success on your final examination.

The examination must be completed in THREE hours.

Answer THREE questions, including at least ONE from Section A, and ONE
from Section B.

The examiners give equal weight to each question and you are advised to
distribute your time approximately equally between the three questions.

The examiners wish to see evidence of your reading throughout the module, and
credit will be given to answers which include references to relevant sources; and
which include illustrative examples to support theoretical arguments.

[PLEASE TURN OVER]

Answer THREE of the following questions, with at least ONE from
Section A, and ONE from Section B.

Section A
Answer at least ONE question from this section.

1. In what ways does strategy in the public sector differ from

strategy in the private sector?

2. How do different contextual factors influence how issues

come onto the public agenda for action?

3. How useful is the ‘rational’ model of policy making as a

guide for strategic planning?

4. In what ways can we define human demography as a

strategic issue?

Section B
Answer at least ONE question from this section.

5. What is the role of evidence in policy making?

6. If you were asked to design a strategy to reduce traffic

congestion in a city, what policy instruments might you
suggest, and why?

7. What sort of institutions are important for the delivery of a

public sector strategy?

8. What are the main purposes of:

a) monitoring, and
b) evaluation of public policies?

[END OF EXAMINATION]
Public Policy and Strategy
Unit 1 Strategy and the Policy
Process

Contents
Unit Overview 2

1.1 The Meaning of Strategy 3

1.2 Public Policy and Strategy 7

1.3 Public/Private Differences 8

1.4 Strategic Issues 12

1.5 Conclusion 17

References 18
 Public Policy and Strategy

Unit Overview
The aim of Unit 1 is to introduce the concept of strategy, and how and why
it is important for public policy. It begins with an historical overview of the
origins of strategy and the way the idea has changed and developed over
time. Strategic planning and management are discussed as aspects of the
policy process, building on some of the ideas covered in our parallel module
Public Policy and Management: Perspectives and Issues.
We then draw a distinction between strategy as a public policy process, and
strategic as a description of complex policy problems, setting out examples
of both, and setting the scene for the remainder of the course. The unit ends
with an introduction to the case study strategic issue which we will be using
throughout the course to illustrate different ideas and methods: demograph-
ic change and population dynamics.

Learning outcomes
When you have completed this unit and its readings, you will be able to:
• define strategy, and what is meant by strategic, in a number of
historical and contemporary contexts
• describe the policy process and the role of strategic planning and
management within it, and in contrast with strategy in the private
sector
• explain why demographic change and population dynamics can be
considered a strategic issue and the implications for public policy and
government action.

 Reading for Unit 1

Lawrence Freedman (2013) ‘Preface’. Strategy: A History. Oxford UK:
Oxford University Press. pp. ix–xvi.
Paul Joyce (2015) Chapter 1 ‘Introduction’. Strategic Management in the
Public Sector. Oxford UK: Routledge. pp. 1–21.
Michael Barber (2015) ‘Preface’, ‘Introduction’ and Chapter 1 ‘Priorities’.
How to Run a Government: So That Citizens Benefit and Taxpayers Don't Go
Crazy. London: Penguin. pp. xi–xiv; xv–xxvi; 1–25.
David S Reher (2011) ‘Economic and social implications of the
demographic transition’. Population and Development Review, 17
(Supplement), 11–23.

2 University of London
 Unit 1 Policy and the Strategy Process

1.1 The Meaning of Strategy

The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won.
Sun Tzu (2000 translation)

I still have the dictionary I used during my school days: The Penguin English
Dictionary, published in 1969, defines strategy like this:
…the art of manoeuvring an army effectively; large-scale plan or method
for winning a war, battle of wits, contest, game etc.
Garmonsway & Simpson (1969)

This view of strategy contains two key features we can trace back more than
2,500 years to Sun Tzu, the Chinese warrior-sage, whose military treatise,
The Art of War (from which the opening quotation comes) continues to
influence political and business gurus to this day.
The first feature places strategy in the realm of conflict: at its most extreme,
in warfare and the fighting (or perhaps avoidance) of battle; in more benign
circumstances as ways to win a game or contest. Strategy is therefore not an
end in itself, but an approach to dealing with a situation of conflict or
competition – a means to an end.
The second feature relates to planning or organising at a large scale, with a
perspective looking beyond the immediate and into the long term, and
taking many different factors into account. In this sense it is distinct from
tactics, which are the much more immediate decisions and actions employed
when fighting a specific battle.
Sun Tzu is the master of expressing these two dimensions concisely, with
the long-term interests of the state in mind. Over and again in The Art of War
he emphasises the wasteful and ruinous consequences of warfare and
conflict, and the desirability of using all means possible to achieve your ends
without actual fighting, and through careful analysis, planning, subterfuge
and, wherever possible, ensuring the desired end result will be inevitable.
He writes from a perspective where competition between political entities is
a fact of life, where as a matter of certainty the state will be confronted with
challenges which need to be overcome. The Art of War dates from a period of
Chinese history when many different local states co-existed alongside each
other in a continuing round of wars, alliances, conquest and betrayal, out of
which the unified Chinese empire eventually emerged.
Sun Tzu’s aim was to keep the reader’s mind firmly on ‘the big picture’ goal
– stability for the state and prosperity for the people – and to teach the ways
in which this could be achieved and maintained in the face of threats and
disruption. And, so far as possible, this should be achieved with the least
expenditure of resources and avoidance of wasteful and destructive fighting.
In this view, still current in the 1969 definition, strategy is therefore a grand,
large-scale enterprise, noble in intent, subtle and artistic in its delivery. In
the field of games, both Chess and Go, perhaps the two most difficult games
known, are played at the highest level by exceptional people with the ability

Centre for Financial and Management Studies 3

Public Policy and Strategy

to develop, deliver and adjust overall strategies for victory. Sun Tzu is
simultaneously spreading a message that the arts of strategy can be taught
and learned, but also that they demand wisdom and ability – in other words,
leadership. The following section comes from the beginning of The Art of
War, from the year 2000 translation (there have been many over time):
Sun Tzu said:
Strategy is the great Work of the organisation.
In Situations of life or death, it is the Tao of survival or extinction,
Its study cannot be neglected.
Therefore, Calculate a plan with Five Working Fundamentals,
And examine the condition of each.
The first is Tao
The second in Nature
The third is Situation
The fourth is Leadership
The fifth is Art.
The Tao inspires people to share in the same ideals and expectations.
Hence, because they share in life and share in death,
The people do not fear danger.
Nature is the dark or light, the cold or hot, and the Systems of time.
Situation is the distant or immediate, the obstructed or easy,
The broad or narrow, and the chances of life or death.
Leadership is intelligence, credibility, humanity, courage and discipline.
The Art is a flexible System
Wherein the Sovereign and Officials employ the Tao.
Leaders should not be unfamiliar with these Five.
Those who understand them will triumph.
Those who do not understand them will be defeated.

It is interesting to note that, despite the somewhat obscure terminology, Sun

Tzu sets out here the sort of systematic approach to policy formation and
delivery that continues to this day. The five ‘fundamentals’ that need atten-
tion include:
• the underlying values and beliefs which unite those engaged in the
struggle (in his terms the ‘Tao’, which in current times we might call
the ideology or core beliefs)
• nature, the context – geography, economic circumstances, the time of
year
• situation, the challenge to be faced, and readiness of the state to act
• leadership, the qualities of those with ultimate responsibility
• and art, the capacity of the state system to apply knowledge and tools
to the common purpose, including (this being crucial to Sun Tzu’s
philosophy) a flexibility and adaptability of response founded in
understanding.
As you will see later in the course there are different approaches to breaking
public policy into component parts, but here, 2500 years ago, we see a

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model which resonates through the years to today. The Art of War has stood
the test of time due to its intrinsic merits – in particular, its ability to pro-
voke careful thought. It is not so much a set of specific prescriptions (do
this, not that), but more a system of strategic thinking which keeps the
ultimate goal in mind whilst encouraging disciplined, systematic analysis of
evidence on the one hand, and imaginative approaches to action on the
other. Quite what Sun Tzu would have made of other applications of his
ideas we can only wonder – a quick Google search reveals the following:
‘Sun Tzu: the Art of Branding Strategy’
‘The Art of War for Dating: Master Sun Tzu’s tactics win over women’
‘Sun Tzu: The Art of Agile Software Delivery’
‘The Art of War for the Sales Warrior: Sun Tzu’s strategy for sales people’
‘Sun Tzu the Art of War and Basketball’
‘Sun Tzu’s Art of War for Traders and Investors’

Clearly there is an appeal to the idea of strategy as, in effect, a clever way to
win a contest. In his masterly history of strategy, Lawrence Freedman (2013)
discusses Sun Tzu, but also traces strategic ideas and behaviour back to the
Abrahamic bible and ancient Greece, and even to primate evolution – citing,
for example, evidence of alliance building, prediction of the actions of
others, and deliberate deception as central to success in chimpanzee politics.
Please now turn to your first reading, the preface to Freedman’s book.
Freedman (2015)
 Reading 1.1 ‘Preface’ in Strategy: A
History
Please study the first reading: the ‘Preface’ to Strategy: A History by Lawrence Freedman.

 In your notes for the reading, include the different components of strategy that are
identified.
 Do these conform with your own idea of what strategy means?
Share your views on the VLE with your fellow students.

As recently as 1969, as you saw in the dictionary definition, strategy was still
defined as being about how to approach wars or games. So why does it
qualify as a subject for study in relation to public policy and management?
Is this module intended for trainee soldiers or future chess grand masters?
Any soldiers or chess playing students are naturally more than welcome to
be here, but no, this module is not designed specifically for them. It is aimed
at anyone with an interest or role in the design, delivery and understanding
of public policy, from the maintenance of the armed forces to the collection
of garbage, education of children or building of roads.
The reason is because, as Freedman says at the very beginning of his book:
Everyone needs a strategy. Leaders of armies, major corporations, and
political parties have long been expected to have strategies, but now no
serious organisation could imagine being without one

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Public Policy and Strategy

From a search on the single word ‘strategy’ on Google in 2016, at the top of
the list of 828 million results comes a more contemporary definition:
‘A plan of action designed to achieve a long-term or overall aim’.

With the term becoming this broad, the idea of strategy is, perhaps, begin-
ning to reach its limits:
‘How to use Wal-Mart strategies to boost your popcorn sales 1’

says Robert Moore, clearly a smart young American boy scout who has
gained some fame for his outstanding ability to sell popcorn for the benefit
of his scout troop and community, and has also realised the credibility and
seriousness that using the ‘S’ word adds to a proposition.
Clearly, the term has opened up, and is in wide use in both the private and
public (and NGO) sectors, from the most local, right up through nation states,
to the largest supranational bodies such as the United Nations. The modern
origins of strategy beyond the fighting of wars lie in the adoption of strategic
thought and processes in private commerce, particularly by large corporations.
Much of Freedman’s history of strategy traces the adoption by private firms
of strategic practices, borrowing openly from military models on the as-
sumption that the open market is analogous to a situation of conflict, with
opponents (competitors) to be overcome, marketing ‘campaigns’ to be
fought, and strategic advantage over opponents to be gained through clever
manoeuvres. Much of this makes sense, with few situations not benefitting
from careful assessment of strengths and weaknesses, detailed planning,
and actions planned coherently and with a clear end goal in mind. There is
also an extent to which leaders in the private sector like to borrow some of
the glamour and prestige which, in some people’s minds, stems from images
of war and successful combat.
In the field of public policy, the situation is somewhat different. We must
distinguish politics from public policy and government. Politics is more often
than not a venue for competition if not conflict, particularly in democratic or
multi-party systems. Elections are in effect ritualised conflicts, and there is a
voluminous literature on political strategy and how to gain more votes than
your competitors. The exercise of power is not the same thing. While there
may, of course, be conflicts to be fought, for most governments for most of the
time the business of ruling is on the one hand more mundane, but on the
other more (or at least differently) complicated and difficult from fighting a
competitive election campaign or staging a successful coup d’etat.
Raising the standards of education in a country’s schools does not on the
whole mean trying to outwit an opponent. There may be tactical conflicts –
for example, if the trades unions representing teachers object to the
measures the government wants to take. But this is not the core goal of the

1 https://popcornguy.org/2013/06/18/how-to-use-wal-mart-strategies-to-boost-your-
popcorn-sales/

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overall strategy. The relevance of strategy for public policy, and how to use
strategic ideas and methods in government, is the topic of this module, so let
us now look in more depth at public administration itself and the place of
strategy within it.

1.2 Public Policy and Strategy

When discussing strategy in the context of public policy it is clear that the
meaning has shifted and, perhaps, become rather less precise. While conflict
or competition remain relevant, in terms of public policy, and in particular
the delivery of services to the public, the challenge is not so much about
overcoming a defined opponent, but about making real the goals, hopes and
commitments of the government.
It is important here to draw a distinction between the political and the
governmental. All states involve political competition. At one extreme, full
liberal democracies such as France or Australia involve different political
parties or movements, competing with each other for the votes of the elec-
torate. At the other, even in autocracies or one-party states such as China
political competition is to be found, between factions or individuals within
the Party. Strategy in relation to politics retains its competitive dimension –
how to discredit your opponent, how to identify and secure the key loca-
tions of power.
In relation to government and administration, however, we are often dealing
with something rather different. The challenges are not the same:
• how to bring change
• how to increase the capacity of your bureaucracy
• how to maintain standards while spending less tax payers’ money for
example.
Although some conflicts may arise – for example, with businesses that are
opposed to increased regulation to drive down carbon energy use – in most
other cases there is no clear, well defined opponent that you need to van-
quish. If your problem is high unemployment, there is no enemy to deceive.
Instead there is the need to address the availability of jobs on the one hand,
the skills and locations of the workforce on the other. This course is about
strategy in the context of government, and the ways in which intentions can
be turned into achievements.
In the classical tradition of ‘public administration’ there is a division of
labour between politicians, who are responsible for policy making, and
public servants, who are responsible for the implementation of those policies
through a variety of policy instruments.
Changes in the management of public services that were introduced in a
variety of countries from the 1980s onwards led to a reconsideration of the
role of ‘management’ as opposed to ‘administration’ in public services. One
aspect of this re-appraisal was structural, with ‘service delivery’ being sepa-

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rated organisationally from ‘policy’, sometimes in the form of executive

agencies, sometimes in the form of contractual relationships with service
delivery businesses, whether for-profit or non-profit. Those involved in the
service delivery part of public service were to be held accountable for their
actions, including their achievement of pre-set targets on outputs and to some
degree on the results of their service delivery activities. Market mechanisms
were consciously being introduced. 2
These agencies or contracting bodies therefore looked more like businesses
than public agencies – they were given more managerial freedoms, especially
with regard to the way they acquired and used assets and the way they hired
and managed staff. Their managers looked to business practice to inform their
managerial work and, in turn, many business schools turned to research and
training for this new breed of public managers.
One aspect of this was an interest in what ‘strategic management’ would
and could look like in the public sector. Business strategy had been taught in
the business schools for decades and techniques had been developed for
understanding, teaching and practising strategy. The issue was ‘how could
such ideas and techniques be applied in the newly configured public sector?’
The differences between the two sectors were clear – in the private sector
profit and shareholder value, in the public sector ‘public value’; in the
private sector the struggle to find and retain customers in a competitive
environment, in the public sector the need to define eligibility for services
and ration their distribution.
A literature emerged. John Bryson’s Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit
Organizations appeared in 1988 in the USA (the fourth edition in 2011 is one of
your textbooks); Paul Joyce’s Strategic Management for Public Services was
published in the United Kingdom in 1999, followed by Strategic Leadership in
the Public Services in 2012, and Strategic Management in the Public Sector (the
second of your textbooks) in 2015. Gerry Johnson and Kevan Scholes published
Exploring Public Sector Strategy in 2000. These books delved into the application
of techniques used in the business schools and in some businesses for the
problems and challenges faced by public managers.

1.3 Public/Private Differences

There are some obvious differences between what might be defined as ‘core’
public service functions and businesses – assuming that the public service
core includes tax collection, delivery of basic services such as policing, regula-
tion and public health, provision of financial management for public money
and policy advice for politicians. The differences include the following:

2 There is much more discussion of the history of public administration and the move to
managerialism in the CeFIMS module Public Policy and Management: Perspectives and Issues.

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 Unit 1 Policy and the Strategy Process

• there is no ‘bottom line’ or profit calculation in the provision of core

public services
• there is (normally) no competition to provide the services
• governance arrangements do not include shareholders
• success does not result in big financial rewards
• the consumers of services do not pay for the full cost of them at the
point at which they are consumed; rather, through taxation.
Once one or more of these conditions is relaxed, certain aspects of private
sector strategic management appear more relevant to the public sector. The
most obvious is the trading entity – public bodies that engage in trade, such
as agricultural marketing, running state theatres or opera houses, national
sports stadiums or state railways, look more like private enterprises. They
have customers who pay; they can compare their costs with their revenues
and produce a ‘bottom line’, and the may be in competition with other
providers of similar goods and services in the private or non-profit sectors.
Of course, the ‘bottom line’ may not be a perfect measure of success – there
may, for example, be a subsidy for a state railway, which distorts the
transport ‘market’. If the service, such as a post office, is a monopoly, then
profits made will depend on the price the postal service is allowed to charge.
The other assumption that may not always apply is the public monopoly –
once competition is introduced, the strategic management problem changes.
For example, where the state monopoly on postal delivery is relaxed, the
post office has to be concerned with retaining customers, thinking about its
price and quality as compared to its rivals.
The major constraint on public bodies that does not apply to private compa-
nies is their reliance on legal statute as their reason for being. While a
company can make strategic decisions about the products and services it
supplies and the markets in which it sells them, public entities have these
choices made for them, and laid down in statute. The prison service cannot
decide to make more profits by building holiday resorts; the state schools
cannot diversify into fashion houses. For some, this restriction in scope is
enough to persuade them that the differences between the public and the
private are so great that strategic management is inappropriate.
In addition to the two categories ‘public’ and ‘private’ there are hybrid
types of organisation that have some characteristics of the private and some
of the public. They include social enterprises that are set up to deliver
services funded by taxation but managed by Boards of Directors and
owned with charitable status. They also include state-owned enterprises
that are owned by government but operate under commercial rather than
administrative law.
In other words, the nature of the environment, including the institutional
environment has a big influence on the choice of strategic management
process. The same is true of the strategy or policy process in the public sector
– if the environment is very stable, the task unchanged, the technology fixed,

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then elaborate processes of strategic planning are unlikely to produce

worthwhile results.
Joyce (2015) Chapter 1
 Reading 1.2 ‘Introduction’ in Strategic
Management in the
Please read the first chapter of your textbook Strategic Management in the Public Sector Public Sector. pp. 1–21.
– the introduction.

 Note in your own words the key points Joyce makes about strategy broadly, and
planning and management more specifically. Make sure you understand why he argues that:
 Strategic planning and management in the public sector is not the same as in the
private sector, even though there are areas where concepts and models have salien-
cy for both.
 Planning and management are not the same thing and should be seen as conceptu-
ally distinct, even when both are at times combined in the same function or organi-
sation.
 Whilst strategy, policy or decision making models, particularly linear, logical frame-
works, have some value as thinking tools, they are overly reductive and in particular
do not reflect the messy reality of evolving circumstances, and neglect the diversity
of skills and actors needed for successful implementation.

The particular context for Joyce’s book is ‘modernization’, used on his first
page in relation to ‘modernizing public policy making’ and ‘modernizing
government’ 3. The implication is that current governmental systems are ‘old
fashioned’ or, to use one of the innumerable catch phrases in this field, are
‘not fit for purpose’. A system is in place, but, for one reason or another, is
not considered able to deliver the goals of the government. Its configuration
into separate ministries may no longer match the way society and the
economy operates, for example, or the systems in use may reflect old tech-
nologies that no longer work or are over staffed in relation to the productivi-
ty of new methods.
It is important to bear in mind that modernisation is not the only reason
governments need strategies, and that as a term it may be a mask for some-
thing else. In the UK, modernisation of the governmental system took
conscious hold in the 1980s during a Conservative government (i.e. right
ring), was accelerated during the 1990s and particularly in the 2000s by a
‘reforming’ Labour government (i.e. left wing), and continued by the coali-
tion which came to power in 2010 – twenty years or more endeavour aimed
at slimming down the scale and functions of the state and focusing its efforts
more explicitly on the delivery of specified government objectives. This was
a period of unambiguous modernisation.
The ‘Brexit’ vote by the UK electorate in June 2016 to leave the European
Union 4 brought an entirely different strategic imperative: working out how

3 Joyce (2015: 3)
4 The loss of the Brexit referendum is an excellent example of a failed political strategy by a
ruling party which included the holding of a referendum in their pre-election proposals to

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to disentangle the UK’s more than forty-year membership of the EU and

integration in its unified economy. There are few examples of a larger
strategic shock to an established liberal democracy than this, short of war.
Across the whole of UK government strategic planning swung into action,
with results which will not be evident for perhaps years to come. For the
purposes of this module, however, the point here is that contemporary
strategic planning and management in the public sector is not always about
modernisation – although on many occasions it is.
Experience that does come from modernisation is found in your next read-
ing, from the second book provided to you, Michael Barber’s How to Run a
Government.
Barber (2015) How to
 Reading 1.3 Run a Government.
Preface, Introduction and
Please read the preface, introduction and first chapter of How to Run a Government. Chapter 1 ‘Priorities’.

 Note in your reading how this author contrasts with Joyce.

 How much do you think Barber’s views are generally applicable to all sorts of gov-
ernments, and how much are they limited to the particular circumstances of the UK
in the 2000s?
Barber has produced a somewhat populist account of the learning he took
from his time working at the centre of government at a period of relative
prosperity, and where the government itself was secure in power with large
majorities and somewhat ineffective political opposition. This was just the
sort of modernising situation envisaged by Joyce, where a government (or at
least Prime Minister) with a strong view of what the country ‘needed’ was
on a mission to attain specific goals, and in a mood to tackle what were seen
as deficiencies in the ‘delivery’ system.
Barber is keen to add to the literature on the ‘science of delivery’, the (in his
view) neglected field of how government works in practice. The approach
advocated in the book is, however, strongly strategic, with its emphasis on
clarity of vision, detailed use of data and analysis, flexibility in delivery to
enable the achievement of end goals, and conspicuous leadership – all traits
that Sun Tzu would recognise. There are even examples of the use of sur-
prise to neutralise opposition, such as the deliberate avoidance by the
central ‘delivery unit’ of taking credit for success.
An important feature of Barber’s approach remains the separation of planning
from management, strategy from execution – in his case, to the level of func-
tional separation of the two tasks between different people and institutions
within government. This contrasts with Joyce’s view that planning and man-
agement tend to be less distinct in the public sector than the private sector.
Some of this comes from the scale and complexity of government. Even at a

the electorate on the assumptions that a) they were unlikely to win the election, and b)
even if they did, there was no chance they would lose a referendum.

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 Public Policy and Strategy

very local level, the responsibilities of governing institutions can be diverse

and complicated – a city local authority may, for example, be responsible for
health, education, traffic, planning, environmental conditions, arts and culture,
economic development. A broad range of expertise will be needed; there will
many different relationships with other interested parties; policies in one area
will interact with those in others; higher levels of government may help or
hinder local action. At the level of the nation state the situation is likely to be
many times more complicated and much larger in scale.
Barber’s narrative reads at times like a tale from the times of Sun Tzu, with
mastermind strategists in a tent at the centre, carefully plotting ingenious
ways to overcome the enemy of ineffective government. While at times this
will be what occurs, at other times and in other circumstances the strategic
needs will be somewhat less glamorous. This does not in any sense remove
the need for strategic thinking and planning, which in practice may be more
difficult to achieve in less obviously pressured circumstances.
In a classic article from 1959, Charles Lindblom coined the term ‘The Science
of “Muddling Through”’, examining the frameworks within which public
administrators took decisions, and demonstrating the great complexity
inherent in public policy systems as they work to coordinate the use of
resources, money, information, regulations and so on in pursuit of interlock-
ing goals. From the point of view of the strategist within the public sector
ideas of network management (Klijn et al, 1995) and the interplay of ‘policy
subsystems’ (Howlett et al, 2009) are important distinctions from norms of
management in the private sector, and help define the spaces within which
strategic issues are addressed, and effective responses planned and deliv-
ered. We will return to these issues later in the module.

1.4 Strategic Issues

So far we have been considering strategy as a process or action: something
that people or groups do. The adjective derived from strategy as a ‘thing’, is
the idea of something being ‘strategic’. At its simplest, and in definitions
online and in dictionaries, strategic is taken to mean ‘relating to a strategy’,
but, as you have seen with strategy itself, the term strategic has come to
signify something more important, deeper or more insightful.

 Exercise 1.1
Think about the following terms and quotes and write down what you think they mean, and
in what sense they might be strategic. Share your ideas with your fellow students on the VLE.
 ‘UK launches nuclear skills strategic programme’
 ‘The Panama Canal: America’s strategic artery’
 ‘Pakistan tensions loom over India-China strategic economic dialogue’
 ‘New plan for Dublin city puts emphasis on housing strategy’
 ‘13 Strategies for Fighting Climate Change While Reducing Inequality and
Unemployment’

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 Unit 1 Policy and the Strategy Process

 ‘Tunisia takes on extremism with new 'terrorism' strategy’

The websites from which these quotes are taken are provided in the References listing at
the end of this unit.

Given the frequency with which phenomena are described as strategic, this
module includes discussion of the sort of strategic issues that are of im-
portance to governments. Another term for the largest scale of such phe-
nomena are ‘megatrends’ – big, long lasting, internationally significant. The
following have all been defined by one source or another as a megatrend or,
in the view of this module, as strategic issues needing, by definition, strate-
gic responses by governments:
• urbanisation – including city growth, rural depopulation, social order
(and the need for a city like Dublin to take a strategic view of its
housing provision)
• climate change – including energy and resource use, mitigation of the
causes and adaptation to the effects (and the need for strategic
responses to also take account of inequality and unemployment)
• changes in global economic power relationships – including
globalisation, sovereign debt and surpa-national institutions (such as
the USA’s interest in keeping open the Panama Canal, and the
improving economic links between China and India)
• technological change – including ICT, robotics and artificial
intelligence (and the need for a country to possess the highly specialist
skills to run a nuclear energy programme)
• social change – including ‘culture wars’, feminism, human rights,
extremism (and a country adopting a strategy to tackle terrorism)
• demographic change – including migration, population ageing and
changing health demands.
All of these involve change of one form or another, all link in obvious and
more subtle ways with the others, and all of them command the attention of
governments and authorities at different levels. In this module we will be
using the last of them – demography and population – as a case example to
illustrate strategic planning and management actions in public policy. We
begin with an introductory reading on the ‘demographic transition’.
Reher (2011) ‘Economic
 Reading 1.4 and social implications of
the demographic
Please study the article on demographic transition by David Reher. transition’. Population
and Development
 Note in your reading the issues which relate most clearly to the policies and work of govern- Review.

ments and public services within countries, as well as issues with a transnational dimension.

In this reading, Reher discusses how fertility (birth) and mortality (death)
rates relate to each other in different societies at different times. At its
simplest, the demographic structure of a society is a function of the rate at

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Public Policy and Strategy

which people are being born compared to how many are dying. In historical
times worldwide, relatively high birth rates – ie the number of children
being born per woman – produced a lot of new babies, but many died in
infancy, and in general adults did not live very long either. In such circum-
stances, the overall size of the population was relatively stable – a lot of
births counterbalanced by a lot of deaths in any given year.
The demographic ‘transition’ is a phenomenon which began in the early
industrialising countries – the UK, Northern Europe, the USA, where
mortality rates began to fall. Better public hygiene (particularly clean water),
better health technologies and improved material circumstances brought
fewer deaths, both amongst children, and for older people falling ill. The
general pattern described by Reher is of a transition period where falling
mortality took place while fertility remained at relatively high levels.
This situation led in many countries to rapid population growth for a period,
with, in many cases, significant economic and social consequences. In most
cases, after a period of time fertility rates also began to fall. New technologies
and changes in social attitudes provided conditions where women became
able to control their fertility, at the same time as the increased likelihood of
survival meant that, to put it bluntly, fewer babies were needed to ensure
continuity of the family. The end of the transition comes when fertility falls to
low levels and more closely matches the mortality rate, event to the extent that
in some countries, such as Japan, the population actually begins to fall.
Crudely, the transition pattern is shown in the following graphs.
1. High fertility + high mortality = slow population growth
This is the historical, pre-industrial situation which does not really exist any
longer. While high fertility remains the case in many, particularly poor, coun-
tries, in most, mortality levels have fallen to allow population numbers to begin
to grow. Haiti, with a 1.4% annual growth rate, is one of the closest to the
historical pattern, as shown in the population pyramid below5.

5 A population pyramid illustrates the age and sex structure of a country's population and may
provide insights about political and social stability, as well as economic development. The
population is distributed along the horizontal axis, with males shown on the left and females
on the right. The male and female populations are broken down into five-year age groups
represented as horizontal bars along the vertical axis, with the youngest age groups at the
bottom and the oldest at the top. The shape of the population pyramid gradually evolves
over time based on fertility, mortality, and international migration trends. (CIA 2016)

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 Unit 1 Policy and the Strategy Process

Figure 1.1 Haiti, population per age group 2016

Source: CIA (2016)

2. High fertility + reducing mortality = rapid population growth

More usual amongst many poor countries is the situation where fertility
remains high, but mortality has fallen, leading to the rapid growth in num-
bers identified by Reher as bringing the potential of a demographic divi-
dend, a pattern visible in Nigeria, which has double Haiti’s growth rate at
2.8%.

Figure 1.2 Nigeria, population per age group 2016

Source: CIA (2016)

3. Reducing fertility + low mortality = slowing population growth

Morocco by contrast displays the third stage where fertility is falling along
with mortality, but with continued more moderate growth of 1.5%.

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Public Policy and Strategy

Figure 1.3 Morocco, population per age group 2016

Source: CIA (2016)

4. Low fertility + low mortality = very low or negative population growth

The Japanese population pyramid illustrates the final stage of very low
fertility and mortality, illustrating clearly how few children are being born
compared to the numbers of women in peak ages for reproduction – Japan’s
population is currently shrinking at 0.2% per year.

Figure 1.4 Japan, population per age group 2016

Source: CIA (2016)

Reher’s article explores these issues in some depth, pointing out a number of
economic and social (and hence) political implications within nation states.
One area touched upon which has additional significance is the role of
migration. All countries to a greater or lesser extent experience migration,

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 Unit 1 Policy and the Strategy Process

whether it be the outmigration to North and South America from Southern

Europe in the early twentieth century, caused by unsustainable growth of
population in poor rural areas, to in-migration into Northern Europe in
recent years from poor young adults from middle Eastern and African
countries with fast growing populations and low economic growth.
For governments and public policy, demography is therefore a quintessen-
tially strategic issue:
• It is of a large scale – millions, if not billions of people, with their own
motivations, beliefs, needs and aspirations.
• It is long lasting – the number of people and the ratios of different ages
and genders changes over time, but slowly, and inexorably. Newly
arrived migrants need to be accommodated in receiving countries, and
bring with them their economic potential but also their fertility
potential. Outmigration from ‘sending’ countries may deplete the
numbers of the most productive and best educated citizens and lead to
depopulation and eroded social and economic capital.
• Its implications are far reaching – affecting the potential of and
demands on the economy; the need for health and care provision; the
number of types of services of all sorts needed over time; the roles of
and opportunities for different sorts of people; relationships between
states.
• It is intrinsically connected to other major issues in complex and ever
changing ways – for example, many of the countries with the fastest
growing populations are also those most likely to experience negative
consequences from climate change such as desertification or rising sea
levels.
• As we progress through the course we will be looking at specific
demographic and population issues in more depth, exploring how
governments have identified issues, adopted strategies, and sought to
influence trends.

1.5 Conclusion
This opening unit has attempted to show you the deep historical origins of
the idea of strategy, rooted in sophisticated statecraft from a time of frequent
conflict between political entities. You have seen how strategy is about
planning how to achieve long=term goals in complicated circumstances, and
how the idea has become adopted in the public sphere, even though on
many occasions the goals of government arise from different pressures and
challenges from warfare or commercial competition.
We have then gone on to consider similarities and differences between
public and private strategic planning and management, and also noted that
the distinction between the two is not always clear cut.
Finally we have noted that as well as being an operational idea, strategic
issues as currently viewed imply and reinforce the idea of large scale and

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 Public Policy and Strategy

long duration. We have begun to explore the complexities and ramifications

of something as simple as the natural process of new people being born and
others dying.
In the next unit we look at the context within which strategic planning and
management in the public sector takes place, and how the planning process
takes it into account.

References
Barber M (2015) How to Run a Government: So That Citizens Benefit and
Taxpayers Don't Go Crazy. London: Penguin.
Bryson JM (2011) Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organizations. 4th
Edition. San Francisco CA: John Wiley & Son.
Chandran N (2016) ‘Pakistan tensions loom over India-China strategic
economic dialogue’. [Online]. CNBC. Available from: http://www.cnbc.
com/2016/10/05/pakistan-tensions-loom-over-india-china-strategic-
economic-dialogue.html
CIA. (2016) World Factbook. [Online]. US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Available from: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-
world-factbook/
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