Probability

Lest men suspect your tale untrue Keep probability in view........Gay, John

There are various phenomena in nature, leading to an outcome, which cannot be predicted apriori
e.g. in tossing of a coin, a head or a tail may result. Probability theory aims at measuring the
uncertainties of such outcomes.

(I) Important terminology :

(i) Random experiment:
It is a process which results in an outcome which is one of the various possible outcomes that are
known to us before hand e.g. throwing of a die is a random experiment as it leads to fall of one of the
outcome from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Similarly taking a card from a pack of 52 cards is also a random
experiment.
(ii) Sample space :
It is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment e.g. {H, T} is the sample space associated
with tossing of a coin.

In set notation it can be interpreted as the universal set.

Example # 1 : Write the sample space of the experiment ‘A coin is tossed and a die is thrown’.
Solution : The sample space S = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}.

Example # 2 : Write the sample space of the experiment ‘A coin is tossed, if it shows head a coin tossed
again else a die is thrown.
Solution : The sample space S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}

Example # 3 : Find the sample space associated with the experiment of rolling a pair of dice (plural of die)
once. Also find the number of elements of the sample space.
Solution : Let one die be blue and the other be green. Suppose ‘1’ appears on blue die and ‘2’ appears
on green die. We denote this outcome by an ordered pair (1, 2). Similarly, if ‘3’ appears on blue
die and ‘5’ appears on green die, we denote this outcome by (3, 5) and so on. Thus, each
outcome can be denoted by an ordered pair (x, y), where x is the number appeared on the first
die (blue die) and y appeared on the second die (green die). Thus, the sample space is given
by
S = {(x, y) x is the number on blue die and y is the number on green die}
We now list all the possible outcomes (figure)

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

Figure
Number of elements (outcomes) of the above sample space is 6 × 6 i.e., 36

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 Probability

Self practice problems :

(1) A coin is tossed twice, if the second throw results in head, a die is thrown then write sample
space of the experiment.
(2) An urn contains 3 red balls and 2 blue balls. Write sample space of the experiment ‘Selection of
a ball from the urn at random’.
Ans. (1) {HT, TT, HH1, HH2, HH3, HH4, HH5, HH6, TH1, TH2, TH3, TH4, TH5, TH6}.
(2) {R1, R2, R3, B1, B2 }. (Here the balls are distinguished from one and other by
naming red balls as R1, R2 and R3 and the blue balls as B1 and B2.)
(iii) Event :
It is subset of sample space. e.g. getting a head in tossing a coin or getting a prime number in throwing
a die. In general if a sample space consists ‘n’ elements, then a maximum of 2 n events can be
associated with it.

(iv) Complement of event :

The complement of an event ‘A’ with respect to a sample space S is the set of all elements of ‘S’ which
are not in A. It is usually denoted by A, or AC.
(v) Simple event :
If an event covers only one point of sample space, then it is called a simple event e.g. getting a head
followed by a tail in throwing of a coin 2 times is a simple event.
(vi) Compound event :
When two or more than two events occur simultaneously, the event is said to be a compound event.
Symbolically A  B or AB represent the occurrence of both A & B simultaneously.
Note : “A B” or A + B represent the occurrence of either A or B.

Example # 4 : Write down all the events of the experiment ‘tossing of a coin’.
Solution : S = {H, T}
the events are  , {H}, {T}, {H, T}

Example # 5 : A die is thrown. Let A be the event ‘ an odd number turns up’ and B be the event ‘a number
divisible by 3 turns up’. Write the events (a) A or B (b) A and B
Solution : A = {1, 3, 5}, B = {3, 6}
 A or B = A  B = {1, 3, 5, 6}
A and B = A  B = {3}
Self practice problems :
(3) A coin is tossed and a die is thrown. Let A be the event ‘H turns up on the coin and odd number
turns up on the die’ and B be the event ‘ T turns up on the coin and an even number turns up
on the die’. Write the events (a) A or B (b) A and B.
(4) In tossing of two coins, let A = {HH, HT} and B = {HT, TT}. Then write the events
(a) A or B (b) A and B.
Ans. (3) (a) {H1, H3, H5, T2, T4, T6} (b) 
(4) (a) {HH, HT, TT} (b) {HT}

(vii) Equally likely events :

If events have same chance of occurrence, then they are said to be equally likely.
e.g
(i) In a single toss of a fair coin, the events {H} and {T} are equally likely.
(ii) In a single throw of an unbiased die the events {1}, {2}, {3} and {4}, are equally likely.
(iii) In tossing a biased coin the events {H} and {T} are not equally likely.

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 Probability

(viii) Mutually exclusive / disjoint / incompatible events :

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if occurrence of one of them rejects the possibility of
occurrence of the other i.e. both cannot occur simultaneously.
In the vein diagram the events A and B are mutually exclusive. Mathematically, we write
AB=
Events A1, A2, A3, ....... An are said to be mutually exclusive events iff
Ai  Aj =   i, j  {1, 2, ..., n} where i  j

Note : If Ai  Aj =   i, j  {1, 2, ..., n} where i  j, then A1  A2  A3 ....  An =  but converse need

not to be true.
Example # 6 : In a single toss of a coin find whether the events {H}, {T} are mutually exclusive or not.
Solution : Since {H}  {T} = , 
   the events are mutually exclusive.
Example # 7 : In a single throw of a die, find whether the events {1, 2}, {2, 3} are mutually exclusive or not.
Solution : Since {1, 2}  {2, 3} = {2}    the events are not mutually exclusive.

Self practice problems :

(5) In throwing of a die write whether the events ‘Coming up of an odd number’ and
‘Coming up of an even number’ are mutually exclusive or not.
(6) An experiment involves rolling a pair of dice and recording the numbers that come up.
Describe the following events :
A : the sum is greater than 8.
B : 2 occurs on either die.
C : the sum is at least 7 and a multiple of 3.
Also, find A  B, B  C and A  C.
Are (i) A and B mutually exclusive ?
(ii) B and C mutually exclusive ?
(iii) A and C mutually exclusive ?
Ans. (5) Yes
(6) A = {(3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3), (4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
B = {(1, 2), (2, 2), (3, 2), (4, 2), (5, 2), (6, 2), (2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 4). (2, 5), (2, 6)}
C = {(3, 6), (6, 3), (5, 4), (4, 5), (6, 6)}
A  B = , B  C = , A  C = {(3, 6), (6, 3), (5, 4), (4, 5), (6, 6)}
(i) Yes (ii) Yes (iii) No.
(ix) Exhaustive system of events :
If each outcome of an experiment is associated with at least one of the events E 1, E2, E3, .........En, then
collectively the events are said to be exhaustive. Mathematically we write
E1 E2 E3.........En = S. (Sample space)

Example # 8 : In throwing of a die, let A be the event ‘even number turns up’, B be the event ‘an odd prime
turns up’ and C be the event ‘a numbers less than 4 turns up’. Find whether the events
A, B and C form an exhaustive system or not.
Solution : A  {2, 4, 6}, B  {3, 5} and C  {1, 2, 3}.
Clearly A B C = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = S. Hence the system of events is exhaustive.
Example # 9 : Three coins are tossed. Describe
(i) two events A and B which are mutually exclusive
(ii) three events A, B and C which are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
(iii) two events A and B which are not mutually exclusive.
(iv) two events A and B which are mutually exclusive but not exhaustive.
(v) three events A, B and C which are mutually exclusive but not exhaustive.
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 Probability

Ans. (i) A : “getting at least two heads” B : “getting at least two tails”
(ii) A : “getting at most one heads” B : “getting exactly two heads”
C : “getting exactly three heads”
(iii) A : “getting at most two tails” B : “getting exactly two heads”
(iv) A : “getting exactly one head” B : “getting exactly two heads”
(v) A : “ getting exactly one tail” B : “getting exactly two tails”
C : “getting exactly three tails”
[Note : There may be other cases also]

Self practice problems :

(7) In throwing of a die which of the following pair of events are mutually
exclusive?
(a) the events ‘coming up of an odd number’ and ‘coming up of an even
number’
(b) the events ‘coming up of an odd number’ and ‘coming up of a number  4’
(8) In throwing of a die which of the following system of events are exhaustive ?
(a) the events ‘an odd number turns up’, ‘a number  4 turns up’ and ‘the
number 5 turns up’.
(b) the events ‘a number  4 turns up’, ‘a number > 4 turns up’.
(c) the events ‘an even number turns up’, ‘a number divisible by 3 turns up’,
‘number 1 or 2 turns up’ and ‘the number 6 turns up’.
Ans. (7) (a) (8) (b)

(II) Classical (a priori) definition of probability :

If an experiment results in a total of (m + n) outcomes which are equally likely and if ‘m’ outcomes are
favorable to an event ‘A’ while ‘n’ are unfavorable, then the probability of occurrence of the event ‘A’,
m number of favourable outcomes
denoted by P(A), is defined by =
mn total number of outcomes
m
i.e. P(A) = .
mn
Here we say that odds in favour of ‘A’ are m : n, while odds against ‘A’ are n : m.
n
Note that P(A) or P(A) or P(AC), i.e. probability of non-occurrence of A = = 1 – P(A)
mn
In the above we shall denote the number of out comes favourable to the event A by n(A) and the total
number of out comes in the sample space S by n(S).
n(A)
 P(A) = .
n(S)

Example # 10 : In throwing of a fair die find the probability of the event ‘ a number  3 turns up’.
Solution : Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} ; event A = {1, 2, 3}
  n(A) = 3 and n(S) = 6
n(A) 3 1
  P(A) = = = .
n(S) 6 2

Example # 11 : In throwing of a fair die, find the probability of turning up of an odd number  4.
Solution : S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let E be the event ‘turning up of an odd number  4’
then E = {5}
n (E) 1
 P(E) = = .
n (S) 6

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Example # 12 : In throwing a pair of fair dice, find the probability of getting a total of 10.
Solution : When a pair of dice is thrown the sample space consists
{(1, 1) (1, 2) .......... (1, 6)
(2, 1,) (2, 2,)......... (2, 6)
.... ..... .... ...
.... ... ... ...
(6, 1), (6, 2) ........ (6, 6)}
Note that (1, 2) and (2, 1) are considered as separate points to make each outcome as
equally likely.
To get a total of ‘10’, favourable outcomes are, (4, 6) (5, 5) and (6, 4)
3 1
Hence required probability = =
36 12

Example # 13 : A five digit number is formed using the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,5 without repetition. Find the
probability that it is divisible by 4
Solution : Total 5 digit numbers formed

5 5 4 3 2
Total ways =5×5×4×3×2 = 600

Now, A number is divisible by 4, if last two digits of the number is divisible by 4

Hence we can have 0 4  first 3 places can be filled in 4×3×2 = 24 ways

1,3 2 first 4 places can be filled in 3×3×2×3 = 54 ways

or 5
2 or 0 first 4 places can be filled in 4×3×2×2 = 48 ways
4

2 4 first 3 places can be filled in 3×3×2 = 18 ways

__________
Total number of ways 144 ways
favorable outcomes 144 6
probability = = = Ans.
Total outcomes 600 25

Self practice problems :

(9) A bag contains 4 white, 3 red and 2 blue balls. A ball is drawn at random. Find the
probability of the event the ball drawn is blue or red
(10) In throwing a pair of fair dice find the probability of the events ‘ a total of of less than or
equal to 9”’.
Ans. (9) 5/9 (10) 5/6.

(III) Addition theorem of probability :

If ‘A’ and ‘B’ are any two events associated with an experiment, then

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)

De Morgan’s laws : If A & B are two subsets of a universal set U, then

(a) (A B)c = Ac Bc
(b) (A B)c = Ac Bc

Distributive laws : (a) A  (B C) = (A B)  (A C)

(b) A  (B C) = (A B)  (A C)

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 Probability

For any three events A, B and C we have the figure

(i) P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A B) – P(B C) – P(C A) + P(A B C)
(ii) P (at least two of A, B, C occur) = P(B  C) + P(C  A) + P(A  B) – 2P(A B C)
(iii) P(exactly two of A, B, C occur) = P(B C) + P(C A) + P(A B) – 3P(A B  C)
(iv) P(exactly one of A, B, C occur) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – 2P(B C) – 2P(C A) – 2P(A B) + 3P(A B C)
Example # 14 : A bag contains 4 white, 3red and 4 green balls. A ball is drawn at random. Find the probability
of the event ‘the ball drawn is white or green’.
Solution : Let A be the event ‘the ball drawn is white’ and B be the event ‘the ball drawn is green’.
8
P(The ball drawn is white or green) = P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) =
11
Example # 15 : In throwing of a die, let A be the event ‘an odd number turns up’, B be the event ‘a number
divisible by 3 turns up’ and C be the event ‘a number  4 turns up’. Then find the probability that
atleast one of A, B, C occur.
Solution : Event A = {1, 3, 5}, event B = {3, 6} and event C = {1, 2, 3, 4}
 A  B = {3}, B  C = {3}, A  C = {1, 3} and A  B  C = {3}.
Thus
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A B) – P(B C) – P(C A) + P(A B C)
3 2 4 1 1 2 1
= + + – – – + =1
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Self practice problems :
(11) In throwing of a die, let A be the event ‘an odd number turns up’, B be the event ‘a number
divisible by 3 turns up’ and C be the event ‘a number  4 turns up’. Then find the probability that
atleast two of A, B and C occur.
(12) In the problem number 11, find the probability that exactly one of A, B and C occurs.
1 2
Ans. (11) (12)
3 3
(IV) Conditional probability
P(A  B)
If A and B are two events, then P(A/B) = .
P(B)
Note that for mutually exclusive events P(A/B) = 0.
Example # 16 : If P(A/B) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.5 and P(A) = 0.2. Find P(A  B ).
Solution : P(A  B ) = P(A) – P(A  B)
P(A  B)
Also P(A/B) =  P(A  B) = 0.1
P(B)
From given data,
P(A  B ) = 0.1
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 Probability

Example # 17 : If P(A) = 0.25, P(B) = 0.5 and P(A  B) = 0.14, find probability that neither ‘A’ nor ‘B’ occurs.

Also find P A  B 
Solution :  
We have to find P A  B = 1 – P(A  B) (by De-Morgan’s law)
Also, P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

putting data we get, P A  B = 0.39 

The shaded region denotes the simultaneous occurrence of A and B

 
Hence P A  B = P(A) – P(A  B) = 0.11

Self practice problem :

(13) If P( A / B ) = 0.3, P(A  B) = 0.8, then find P(A  B ) ?
7
Ans.
15

(V) Independent and dependent events

If two events are such that occurence or non-occurence of one does not affect the chances of
occurence or non-occurence of the other event, then the events are said to be independent.
Mathematically : if P(A  B) = P(A) P(B), then A and B are independent.
Note: (i) If A and B are independent, then
(a) A and B are independent,
(b) A and B are independent and
(c) A and B are independent.
(ii) If A and B are independent, then P(A / B) = P(A).
If events are not independent then they are said to be dependent.
Independency of three or more events
Three events A, B & C are independent if & only if all the following conditions hold :
P(A  B) = P(A) . P(B) ; P(B  C) = P(B) . P(C)
P (C  A) = P(C) . P(A) ; P(A  B  C) = P(A) . P(B) . P(C)

Example # 18 : A pair of fair coins is tossed yielding the equiprobable space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}. Consider
the events:
A = {head on first coin} = {HH, HT}, B = {head on second coin} = {HH, TH}
C = {head on exactly one coin} = {HT, TH}
Then check whether A, B, C are independent or not.
2 1
Solution : P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = = .
4 2
1 1 1
Also P(A  B) = = P(A) P(B), P(A  C) = = P(A) P(C), P(B  C) = = P(B) P(C)
4 4 4
but P(A  B  C) = 0  P(A) P(B) P(C)
 A, B & C are not independent

Example # 19 : In drawing two balls from a box containing 7 red and 4 white balls without replacement, which
of the following pairs is independent ?
(a) Red on first draw and red on second draw
(b) Red on first draw and white on second draw
Solution : Let E be the event ‘Red on first draw’, F be the event ‘Red on second draw’ and G be the
event ‘white on second draw’.
7 7 4
P(E) = , P(F) = , P(G) =
11 11 11

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 Probability

7
P2 21
(a) P(E  F) = 11
=
P2 55
7 7 49 21
P(E) . P(F) = × =    E and F are not independent
11 11 121 55
7 4 28
(b) P(E) . P(G) = × =
11 11 121
7
P1 4 P1 14
P(E  G) = 11
=
P2 55
  P(E) . P(G)  P(E  G)   E and G are not independent

Example # 20 : If two switches S1 and S2 have respectively 90% and 80% chances of working. Find the
probabilities that each of the following circuits will work.

Solution : Consider the following events :

A = Switch S1 works,
B = Switch S2 works,
We have,
90 9 80 8
P(A) = = and P(B) = =
100 10 100 10
(i) The circuit will work if the current flows in the circuit. This is possible
only when both the switches work together. Therefore, Required probability
= P(A  B) = P(A) P (B) [ A and B are independent events]
9 8 72 18
= × = =
10 10 100 25
(ii) The circuit will work if the current flows in the circuit. This is possible
only when at least one of the two switches S1, S2 works. Therefore,
Required Probability
= P(A  B) = 1 – P (A) P( B ) [ A, Bare independent events]
 9  8  1 2 49
= 1 – 1    1  10  =1 – × =
 10   10 10 50
Example # 21 : A speaks truth in 60% of the cases and B in 90% of the cases. In what percentage of cases are
they likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact?
Solution : Let E be the event that A speaks truth and F be the event that B speaks truth. Then E and F
are independent events such that
60 3 90 9
P(E) = = and P(F) = =
100 5 100 10
A and B will contradict each other in narrating the same fact in the following mutually
exclusive ways:
(i) A speaks truth and B tells a lie i.e. E  F
(ii) A tells a lie and B speaks truth lie i.e. E  F
 P(A and B contradict each other)
= P(I or II) = (I  II) = P[(E  F )  ( E  F)]
= P(E  F ) + P ( E  F) [ E  F and E  F are mutually exclusive]

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 Probability

= P(E) P( F ) + P( E ) P(F) [ E and F are independent]

3  9   3 9 3 1 2 9 21
= × 1   + 1   × = × + × =
5  10   5  10 5 10 5 10 50

Example # 22 : A box contains 5 bulbs of which two are defective. Test is carried on bulbs one by one untill the
two defective bulbs are found out. Find the probability that the process stops after
(i) Second test (ii) Third test
Solution : (i) Process will stop after second test. Only if the first and second bulb are both
found to be defective
2 1 1
probability = × = (Obviously the bulbs drawn are not kept back.)
5 4 10
(ii) Process will stop after third test when either
2 3 1 1
(a) DND  × × = Here ‘D’ stands for defective
5 4 3 10
3 2 1 1
or (b) NDD  × × = and ‘N’ is for not defective.
5 4 3 10
3 2 1 1
or (c) NNN × × =
5 4 3 10
3
hence required probability =
10

1 1 E  1
Example # 23 : If E1 and E2 are two events such that P(E1) = ; P(E2) = ; P  1 = , then choose the
4 2  E2  4
correct options.
(i) E1 and E2 are independent (ii) E1 and E2 are exhaustive

(iii) E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive (iv) E1 & E2 are dependent

E  E 
Also find P  1  and  2 
E
 2  E1 
E 
Solution : Since P =  1  P(E1)  E1 and E2 are independent of each other
 E2 
Also since P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) – P(E1) . P(E2)  1
Hence events are not exhaustive. Independent events can’t be mutually exclusive.
Hence only (i) is correct
Further since E1 & E2 are independent; E1 and E2 or E1 , E2 are E1 , E2 are also independent.
E  E 
Hence P  1  
 = P E1 =
3
4
and P  2  = P (E2) =
1
2
 E2   E1 

Example # 24 : If cards are drawn one by one from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards without replacement, until
an ace appears, find the probability that the fourth card is the first ace to appear.
48
C3 4 C1
Solution : Probability of selecting 3 non-Ace and 1 Ace out of 52 cards is equal to 52
C4
Since we want 4th card to be first ace, we will also have to consider the arrangement, Now 4
cards in sample space can be arranged in 4! ways and, favorable they can be arranged in 3 !
ways as we want 4th position to be occupied by ace
48
C3 4 C1 3 !
Hence required probability = 52
×
C4 4 !

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 Probability

Aliter :
‘NNNA’ is the arrangement then we desire in taking out cards, one by one
48 47 46 4
Hence required chance is × × ×
52 51 50 49
Self practice problems :
(14) An urn contains 7 red and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random with
replacement. Find the probability of getting
(i) 2 red balls (ii) 2 blue balls (iii) one red and one blue ball
1 1
(15) Probabilities of solving a specific problem independently by A and B are and
2 3
respectively. If both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that
(i) the problem is solved (ii) exactly one of them solves the problem.
(16) In throwing a pair of dies find the probability of getting an odd number on the first die
and a total of 7 on both the dies.
(17) In throwing of a pair of dies, find the probability of getting a doublet or a total of 4.
(18) A bag contains 8 marbles of which 3 are blue and 5 are red. One marble is drawn at
random, its colour is noted and the marble is replaced in the bag. A marble is again
drawn from the bag and its colour is noted. Find the probability that the marbles will be
(i) blue followed by red (ii) blue and red in any order (iii)of the same colour.
(19) A coin is tossed thrice. In which of the following cases are the events E and F
independent ?
(i) E : “the first throw results in head”.
F : “the last throw result in tail”.
(ii) E : “the number of heads is two”.
F : “the last throw result in head”.
(iii) E : “the number of heads is odd ”.
F : “the number of tails is odd”.
49 16 56 2 1
Ans. (14) (i) (ii) (iii) (15) (i) (ii)
121 121 121 3 2
1 2 15 15 17
(16) (17) (18) (i) (ii) (iii)
12 9 64 32 32
(19) (i)
(VI) Total probability theorem
If an event A can occur with one of the n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events B1, B2, ....., Bn and
the probabilities P(A/B1), P(A/B2) .... P(A/Bn) are known, then
n
P(A) = P(B )
i 1
i . P(A / Bi )

Proof :
The event A occurs with one of the n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
B1, B2, B3,........,Bn
A = (A  B1)  (A  B2)  (A  B3)  ........  (A  Bn)
n
P(A) = P(A  B1) + P(A B2) + ....... + P(A Bn) = P(A
i 1
 Bi )

Now,
P(A  Bi) = P(A) . P(Bi/A) = P(Bi) . P(A/Bi)
n
 P(A) = P(B )
i 1
i . P(A / Bi )

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 Probability

Example # 25 : Box -  contains 6 red and 3 white balls while box -  contains 4 red and 3 white balls. A fair die
is thrown. If it turns up a multiple of 3, a ball is drawn from box -  else a ball is drawn from box -
. Find the probability that the ball drawn is white.
Solution : Let A be the event ‘a multiple of 3 turns up on the die’ and R be the event ‘the ball drawn is
white’
then P (ball drawn is white)
2 3  2 3 25
= P(A) . P(R / A) + P (A) P(R / (A) ) = × + 1   =
6 9  6 7 63

Example # 26 : Cards of an ordinary deck of playing cards are placed into two heaps. Heap - consists of all
the red cards and heap - consists of all the black cards. A heap is chosen at random and a
card is drawn, find the probability that the card drawn is a king.
Solution : Let  and be the events that heap -  and heap - are choosen respectively. Then
1
P() = P() =
2
Let K be the event ‘the card drawn is a king’
2 2
  P (K /) = and P(K /) =
26 26
1 2 1 2 1
 P(K) = P () P(K / ) + P() P(K /) = × + × = .
2 26 2 26 13
Self practice problems :
(20) Box -  contains 3 red and 6 blue balls while box - II contains 5 red and 4 blue balls. A
fair coin is tossed. If it turns up head, a ball is drawn from box - , else a ball is drawn
from box -  . Find the probability that the ball drawn is red.
(21) There are 5 brilliant students in class XI and 8 brilliant students in class XII. Each class
has 50 students. The odds in favour of choosing the class XI are 2 : 3. If the class XI is
not chosen then the class XII is chosen. Find the probability of selecting a brilliant
student.
4 17
Ans. (20) (21) .
9 125

(VII) Bayes’ theorem :

If an event A can occur with one of the n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events B 1, B2 , ....., Bn and
P(B ) . P(A / Bi )
the probabilities P(A/B1), P(A/B2) .... P(A/Bn) are known, then P(Bi / A) = n i
P(B )
i 1
i . P(A / Bi )

Proof :
The event A occurs with one of the n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
B1, B2, B3,........,Bn
A = (A  B1)  (A  B2)  (A  B3)  ........  (A  Bn)
n
P(A) = P(A  B1) + P(A B2) + ....... + P(A Bn) = P(A
i 1
 Bi )

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 Probability

Now, P(A  Bi) = P(A) . P(Bi/A) = P(Bi) . P(A/Bi)

P(Bi ) . P(A / Bi ) P(B ) . P(A / Bi )
P (Bi/A) = = ni
P(A)

P(A  Bi )
i 1

P(Bi ) . P(A / Bi )
P(Bi/A) =
P(B ) i . P(A / Bi )

2
Example # 27 : Pal’s gardener is not dependable, the probability that he will forget to water the rose bush is .
3
The rose bush is in questionable condition any how, if watered the probability of its withering
1 3
is , if not watered, the probability of its withering is . Pal went out of station and upon
2 4
returning, he finds that the rose bush has withered, what is the probability that the gardener did
not water the bush.
[Here result is known that the rose bush has withered, therefore. Bayes’s theorem should be
used]
Solution : Let A = the event that the rose bush has withered
Let A1 = the event that the gardener did not water.
A2 = the event that the gardener watered.
By Bayes’s theorem required probability,
P(A1 ) . P(A / A1 )
P(A1/A) = .....(i)
P(A1 ) . P(A / A1 )  P(A 2 ) . P(A / A 2 )
2 1
Given, P(A1) =  P(A2) =
3 3
2 3
.
3 1 3 4 6 3
P(A/A1) = , P(A/A2) = From (1), P(A1/A) = = =
4 2 2 3 1 1 62 4
.  .
3 4 3 2
Example # 28 : There are 5 brilliant students in class XI and 8 brilliant students in class XII. Each class has 50
students. The odds in favour of choosing the class XI are 2 : 3. If the class XI is not chosen
then the class XII is chosen. A student is chosen and is found to be brilliant, find the probability
that the chosen student is from class XI.
Solution : Let E and F be the events ‘Class XI is chosen’ and ‘Class XII is chosen’ respectively.
2 3
Then P(E) = , P(F) =
5 5
5 8
Let A be the event ‘Student chosen is brilliant’. Then P(A / E) = and P(A / F) = .
50 50
2 5 3 8 34
  P(A) = P(E) . P(A / E) + P(F) . P(A / F) = . + . = .
5 50 5 50 250
P(E) . P(A / E) 5
 P(E / A) = = .
P(E) . P(A / E)  P(F) . P(A / F) 17

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 Probability

Example # 29 : A pack of cards is counted with face downwards. It is found that one card is missing. One card
is drawn and is found to be red. Find the probability that the missing card is red.
Solution : Let A be the event of drawing a red card when one card is drawn out of 51 cards (excluding
missing card.) Let A1 be the event that the missing card is red and A2 be the event that the
missing card is black.
Now by Bayes’s theorem, required probability,
P(A1 ) . (P(A / A1 )
P(A1/A) = ..........(i)
P(A1 ) . P(A / A1 )  P(A 2 ) . P(A / A 2 )
In a pack of 52 cards 26 are red and 26 are black.
26
C 26 1
Now P(A1) = probability that the missing card is red = 52 1 = =
C1 52 2
26 1
P(A2) = probability that the missing card is black = =
52 2
P(A/A1) = probability of drawing a red card when the missing card is red.
25
=
51
[Total number of cards left is 51 out of which 25 are red and 26 are black as the
missing card is red]
26
Again P(A/A2) = Probability of drawing a red card when the missing card is black =
51
1 25
.
2 51 25
Now from (i), required probability, P(A1/A) = =
1 25 1 26 51
.  .
2 51 2 51
Example # 30 : A bag contains 6 white and an unknown number of black balls ( 3). Balls are drawn one by
one with replacement from this bag twice and is found to be white on both occassion. Find the
probability that the bag had exactly ‘3’ Black balls.
Solution : A priori, we can think of the following possibilies
(i) E1 6W , 0B
(ii) E2 6W , 1B
(iii) E3 6W , 2B
(iv) E4 6W , 3B
1
Clearly P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = P(E4) =
4
Let ‘A’ be the event that two balls drawn one by one with replacement are both white therefore
E 
we have to find P  4 
 A 
 A 
P   P(E4 )
 4
E  E4 
By Baye’s theorem P   =
 A  A  A   A   A 
P    P(E1 )  P   . P(E2 )  P   . P(E3 )  P   . P(E 4 )
 E1   E2   E3   E4 
 A  6 6  A  6 6  A  6 6 A 6 6
P   = × ; P   = × ; P   = × ; P   = × ;
E
 4 9 9 E
 3 8 8 E
 2 7 7 E
 1 6 6
1 1
E  
Putting values P  4 81 4
=
 A  1 1 1 1 1
  
4  81 64 49 36 


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 Probability

Self practice problems :

(22) Box- contains 3 red and 2 blue balls while box- contains 2 red and 3 blue balls. A fair
coin is tossed. If it turns up head, a ball is drawn from box-, else a ball is drawn from
box-. If the ball drawn is red, then find the probability that the ball is drawn from
box-.
(23) Cards of an ordinary deck of playing cards are placed into two heaps. Heap - consists
of all the red cards and heap - consists of all the black cards. A heap is chosen at
random and a card is drawn, if the card drawn is found to be a king, find the probability
that the card drawn is from the heap - .
2 1
Ans. (22) (23)
5 2

(VIII) Binomial probability theorem :

If an experiment is such that the probability of success or failure does not change with trials, then the
probability of getting exactly r success in n trials of such an experiment is nCr pr qn – r, where ‘p’ is the
probability of a success and q is the probability of a failure in one particular experiment. Note that
p + q = 1.

Example 31 : A pair of dice is thrown 7 times. Find the probability of getting a doublet thrice
1
Solution : In a single throw of a pair of dice probability of getting a doublet is
6
1
considering it to be a success, p =
6
1 5
 q=1– =
6 6
number of success r = 3
3 4
 1 5
 P(r = 3) = 7C3 p3 q4 = 35    
6 6

Example # 32 : A pair of dice is thrown 4 times. If getting ‘a total of 7’ in a single throw is considered as a
success then find the probability of getting ‘a total of 7’ thrice.
6 1
Solution : p = probability of getting ‘a total of 7’ = =
36 6
1 5
 q=1– =
6 6
r = 3, n = 4
3
 1 5 5
  P(r = 3) = C3 p q = 4     =
4 3

 6   6  324

Example # 33 : In an examination of 10 multiple choice questions (1 or more can be correct out of 3 options). A
student decides to mark the answers at random. Find the probability that he gets exactly two
questions correct.
Solution : A student can mark 7 different answers to a MCQ with 3 option i.e. 3C1 + 3C2 + 3C3 = 7
1
Hence if he marks the answer at random, chance that his answer is correct = and
7
6 1 6
being incorrecting Thus p= ,q=
7 7 7
2 8
 1 6
P (2 success) = 10C2 ×   ×  
 
7 7

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Example # 34 : A family has three children. Event ‘A’ is that family has at most one boy, Event ‘B’ is that family
has at least one boy and one girl, Event ‘C’ is that the family has at most one girl. Find whether
events ‘A’ and ‘B’ are independent. Also find whether A, B, C are independent or not.
Solution : A family of three children can have
(i) All 3 boys (ii) 2 boys + 1 girl (iii) 1 boy + 2 girls (iv) 3 girls
3
 1 1
(i) P (3 boys) = 3C0   = (Since each child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl)
2 8
2
 1 1 3
(ii) P (2 boys +1girl) = 3C1 ×   × =
 
2 2 8
(Note that there are three cases BBG, BGB, GBB)
1 2
 1  1 3
(iii) P (1 boy + 2 girls) = 3C2 ×   ×   =
 
2  
2 8
1
(iv) P (3 girls) =
8
1
Event ‘A’ is associated with (iii) & (iv). Hence P(A) =
2
3
Event ‘B’ is associated with (ii) & (iii). Hence P(B) =
4
1
Event ‘C’ is associated with (i) & (ii). Hence P(C) =
2
3
P(A B) = P(iii) = = P(A) . P(B) . Hence A and B are independent of each other
8
P(A C) = 0  P(A) . P(C) . Hence A, B, C are not independent

Self practice problems :

(24) A box contains 4 red and 5 blue balls. Two balls are drawn successively without
replacement. If getting ‘a red ball on first draw and a blue ball on second draw’ is
considered a success, then find the probability of 2 successes in 3 performances.
(25) Probability that a bulb produced by a factory will fuse after an year of use is 0.2. Find
the probability that out of 5 such bulbs exectly 2 bulb will fuse after an year of use.
325 640
Ans. (24) (25)
1944 3125

(IX) Probability distribution :

A probability distribution spells out how a total probability of 1 is distributed over several values of a
random variable (i.e. how ............................... possibilities)

(X) Expectation :
If there are n possibilities A1, A2, .... An in an experiment having the probabilities p1, p2, .........pn
respectively. If value M1, M2, ....., Mn are associated with the respective possibility. Then the expected
n
value of the experiment is given by p
i1
i . Mi

Note: (i) Mean of any probability distribution of a random variable is given by :

 pi xi
µ= =  pi xi (Since  pi = 1)
 pi
Its also known as expectation.
(ii) Variance of a random variable is given by, 2 = (xi – µ)2 . pi
  2 = pi xi2 – µ2 (Note that SD = + 2 )

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 Probability

(iii) The probability distribution for a binomial variate ‘X’ is given by :

P(X = r) = nCr pr qn – r where P(X = r) is the probability of r successes.
P(r  1) n  r p
The recurrence formula = . , is very helpful for quickly computing
P(r) r 1 q
P(1) . P(2) . P(3) etc. if P(0) is known.
Mean of Binomial Probability Distribution = np ; variance of Binomial Probability
Distribution = npq.
(iv) If p represents a person’s chance of success in any venture and ‘M’ the sum of money
which he will receive in case of success, then his expectations or probable value = pM
Example # 35 : A random variable X has the following probability distribution :
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 2
P(X) 0 2k 3k k 0 k +k 2k 5k 2
Determine
(i) k (ii) P(X < 3) (iii) P(X  6) (iv) P(0 < X  3)
Hints : Use  P(X) = 1 to determine k, P(X < 3) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2), P(X6) = P(6) +(P(7),
P(0 < X  3) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3)
1 5 7 3
Ans. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
8 8 64 4
Example # 36 : A fair die is tossed. If 2, 3 or 5 occurs, the player wins that number of rupees, but if 1, 4, or 6
occurs, the player loses that number of rupees. First complete probability distribution table.
Hence find expectation.
Ai 2 3 5 1 4 6

Solution : Mi 2 3 5 –1 –4 –6
Pi 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Then expected value E of the game payoffs for the player
 1  1  1  1  1  1  1
= 2   + 3   + 5   – 1   – 4   – 6  = – 
 
6  
6  
6  
6  
6  
6 6
Since E is negative therefore game is unfavorable to the player.
Example # 37 : There are 50 tickets in a raffle (Lottery). There is 1 prize each of Rs. 800/-, Rs. 300/- and
Rs. 200/-. Remaining tickets are blank. Find the expected price of one such ticket.
Solution : Expectation =  piMi
1
Probability of 1 ticket =
50
1 1 1 47
expected price = 800 × + 300 × + 200 × + × 0 = 26 Rs.
50 50 50 50
Example # 38 : A purse contains four coins each of which is either five rupees or two rupees coin. Find the
expected value of a coin in that purse.
Solution : Various possibilities of coins in the purse can be
5Rs. 2Rs.
0 4 
1 3 
 equally likely 1/ 5
2 2 
3 1 

4 0 
expected value per coin
1 1 1 1 1
= [5× 0+4×2] + [5×1+3×2] + [ 5 × 2 + 2 × 2]+ [ 5 × 3 + 2 ×1] [5 × 4 + 2 × 0] = 14
5 5 5 5 5

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Example # 39 : A pair of dice is thrown 7 times. If getting a doublet is considered as a success, then find the
mean and variance of successes.
1
Solution : In a single throw of a pair of dice, probability of getting a doublet =
6
1 1 5
considering it to be a success, p =  q=1– =
6 6 6
1 7 1 5 35
mean = 7 × = , variance = 7 × × =
6 6 6 6 36

Example # 40 : A pair of dice is thrown 4 times. If getting a total of 7 in a single throw is considered as a
success then find the mean and variance of successes.
6 1
Solution : p = probability of getting a total of 7 = =
36 6
1 5
 q=1– =
6 6
1 2
  mean = np = 4 × =
6 3
1 5 5
variance = npq = 4 × × =
6 6 9

Example # 41 : Difference between mean and variance of a Binomial variate is ‘1’ and difference between their
squares is ‘11’. Find the probability of getting exactly three success
Solution : Mean = np & variance = npq
therefore, np – npq = 1 ..........(i)
n2p2 – n2p2q2 = 11 ..........(ii)
Also, we know that p + q = 1 ..........(iii)
5 1
Divide equation (ii) by square of (i) and solve, we get, q = , p = & n = 36
6 6
3 33
 1 5
Hence probability of ‘3’ success = 36C3 ×   ×  
 
6 6
Self practice problems :
(26) From a bag containing 2 one rupee and 3 two rupee coins a person is allowed to draw
2 coins simultaneously ; find the value of his expectation.
(27) A box contains 2 red and 3 blue balls. Two balls are drawn successively without
replacement. If getting ‘a red ball on first draw and a blue ball on second draw’ is
considered a success, then find the mean and variance of successes.
(28) Probability that a bulb produced by a factory will fuse after an year of use is 0.2. If
fusing of a bulb is considered an failure, find the mean and variance of successes for a
sample of 10 bulbs.
(29) A random variable X is specified by the following distribution law :

X 2 3 4
P(X = x) 0.3 0.4 0.3
Find the variance of this distribution.

Ans. (26) Rs. 3.20 (27) mean = 2.1, 2 = .63 (28) mean = 8 and variance = 1.6

(29) 0.6

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 Marked questions are recommended for Revision.

PART - I : SUBJECTIVE QUESTIONS

Section (A) : Problems based on Classical definition of Probability (PRCD)

A-1. Write the sample space of the following experiment
(i) sssssss‘Three coins are tossed’.
(ii) ‘Selection of two children from a group of 3 boys and 2 girls without replacement’.
A-2. In throwing a pair of dice, find whether the two events
(i) E1 : ‘coming up of an odd number on first dice’ and E2 : ‘coming up of a total of 8’.
(ii) E1 : ‘coming up of 4 on first dice’ and E2 : ‘coming up of 5 on the second dice’.
are mutually exclusive or not
A-3. If the letters of the word BANANA are arranged randomly, then find the probability that the word thus
formed does not contain the pattern BAN.
A-4. Three persons A, B and C speak at a function along with 5 other persons. If the persons speak at
random, find the probability that A speaks before B and B speaks before C
A-5. A rectangle is randomly selected from the grid of equally spaced squares as shown.

Find the probability that the rectangle is a square.

A-6. Three cards are drawn at random from a pack of well shuffled 52 cards. Find the probability that
(i) all the three cards are of the same suit;
(ii) one is a king, the other is a queen and the third a jack.
A-7. Four persons draw 4 cards from an ordinary pack find the chance
(1) that a card is of each suit
(2) that no two cards are of equal value.

Section (B) : Problems based on venn diagram & set theory (PRVD)
B-1. Prove that
P(A – B) = P(A) – P(A  B) = P(A  B) – P(B) = P(A B ) = 1 – P ( A B)

B-2 If P(A) = 0.7 and P(AB) = 0.5 find

(i) P (A– B ) (ii) P( A B)

B-3 If P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.48 and P(A  B) = 0.16, then find the value of each of the following :
(i) P(A  B) (ii) P(A B)
(iii) P(A  B) (iv) P((A  B)  (A  B))
B-4. A card is drawn from a well shuffled ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that the card
drawn is :
(i) A king or a queen (ii) A king or a spade
B-5. There are three events A, B, C, one of which must, and only one can, happen; the odds are 8 to 3
against A, 5 to 2 against B : find the odds against C.
B-6. In throwing of a pair of dice, find the probability of the event : total is ‘not 8’ and ‘not 11’.

B-7. In a throw of a pair of dice, then find the probability of ‘A total of 8 but not 11’.

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Section (C) : Problems based on Conditional Probability/ Total probability & Bayes'
theorem
C-1. (i) In a two child family, one child is a boy. What is the probability that the other child is a girl?
(ii) If the older child is a boy, then probability that the second child is a girl is
C-2. A fair dice is thrown untill a score of less than 5 points is obtained. Find the probability of obtaining not
less than 2 points on the last throw.
C-3. 6 persons A,B,C,D,E,F are arranged in row. Find the conditional probability that C & D are separated
given that A & B are together.
C-4. A, B, C in order draws a card from a pack of cards, replacing them after each draw, on condition that
the first who draws a spade shall win a prize : find their respective chances.
C-5. There are 5 brilliant students in class XI and 8 brilliant students in class XII. Each class has 50
students. The odds in favour of choosing the class XI are 2 : 3. One of the classes is chosen randomly
and then a student is randomly selected. Find the probability of selecting a brilliant student.
C-6. Box – I contains 5 red and 2 blue balls while box – II contains 2 red and 6 blue balls. A fair coin is
tossed. If it turns up head, a ball is drawn from box–I, else a ball is drawn from box–II. Find the
probability of each of the following :
(i) A red ball is drawn (ii) Ball drawn is from box–I if it is blue
C-7. Two cards are drawn successively from a well-shuffled ordinary deck of 52-playing cards without
replacement and is noted that the second card is a king. Find the probability of the event ‘first card is
also a king’.
C-8. 12 cards, numbered 1 to 12, are placed in a box, mixed up throughly and then a card is drawn at
random from the box. If it is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3, find the
probability that it is an even number.

Section (D) : Problem based on Binomial Distribution / Expectation / mean

& Variance
D-1. A had in his pocket a 100 Rupee and four 10 rupee notes; taking out two notes at random he promises
to give them to B and C. What is the worth of C’s expectation?
D-2. In an examination of 10 multiple choice questions (1 or more can be correct out of 4 options). A student
decides to mark the answers at random. Find the probability that he gets exactly two questions correct.
(Assume he attempts all the questions)
D-3. Three cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well shuffled deck of 52 playing cards. If
getting a card of spade is considered a success, find the probability distribution of the number of
successes.
D-4. A box contains 2 red and 3 blue balls. Two balls are drawn successively with replacement. If getting ‘a
red ball on first draw and a blue ball on second draw’ is considered a success, then write the probability
distribution of successes. It is given that the above experiment is performed 3-times,
D-5. A coin is tossed 5-times. Find the mean and variance of the probability distribution of appearance of
heads on the tosses.

PART - II : ONLY ONE OPTION CORRECT TYPE

Section (A) : Problems based on Classical definition of Probability (PRCD)
A-1. In drawing of a card from a well shuffled ordinary deck of playing cards the events ‘card drawn is
spade’ and ‘card drawn is an ace’ are
(A) mutually exclusive (B) equally likely
(C) forming an exhaustive system (D) none of these

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A-2. A 9 digit number using the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9 is written randomly without repetition.
The probability that the number will be divisible by 9 is:
(A) 1/9 (B) 1/2 (C) 1 (D) 9!/99
A-3. Entries of a 2 × 2 determinant are chosen from the set {–1, 1}. The probability that determinant has zero
value is
1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D) none of these
4 3 2

A-4. If an integer q is chosen at random in the interval – 10  q  10, then the probability that the roots of the
3q
equation x2 + qx + + 1 = 0 are real is
4
16 15 14 17
(A) (B) (C) (D)
21 21 21 21
A-5. The chance that a 13 card combination from a pack of 52 playing cards is dealt to a player in a game of
bridge, in which 9 cards are of the same suit, is
4 . 13 C9 . 39 C4 4! . 13 C9 . 39 C4 13
C9 . 39 C4 13
C9 . 39 C4
(A) 52
(B) 52
(C) 52
(D) 2. 52
C13 C13 C13 C13

A-6. A bag contains 7 tickets marked with the numbers 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 respectively. A ticket is drawn &
replaced. Then the chance that after 4 drawings the sum of the numbers drawn is 8 is:
(A) 165/2401 (B) 149/2401 (C) 3/49 (D) 1/49
A-7. Three houses are available in a locality. Three persons apply for the houses. Each applies for one
house without consulting others, The probability that all the three apply for the same house, is :
(A) 7/9 (B) 8/9 (C) 1/9 (D) 2/9

Section (B) : Problems based on venn diagram & set theory (PRVD)
3x  1 1 x 1  2x
B-1. Events A, B, C are mutually exclusive events such that P(A) = , P(B) = and P(C) = .
3 4 2
The set of possible values of x are in the interval :

 1 1 1 2  1 13 
(A)  ,  (B)  ,  (C)  ,  (D) [0, 1]
3 2 3 3 3 3 

B-2. If two subsets A and B of set S containing n elements are selected at random, then the probability that
A  B =  and A  B = S is
4
1 1 3 1
(A) (B) (C)   (D)
2 2n
4 3n
3 2
B-3. If P(A) = and P(B) = then –
5 3
(i) The range of values of P(A  B) is
2 9  2   1  4 3
(A)  ,  (B)  ,1 (C) 0,  (D)  , 
 5 10  3   3  15 5 

(ii) The range of values of P(A  B) is

2 9  2   1  4 3
(A)  ,  (B)  ,1 (C) 0,  (D)  , 
 5 10  3   3  15 5 
(iii) The range of values of P(A  B) is
2 9  2   1  4 3
(A)  ,  (B)  ,1 (C) 0,  (D)  , 
 5 10  3   3  15 5 

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B-4 Let X = {1,2, ..... , 10}, if set A and B are formed from elements of X the probability that n (A  B) = 2, is
10 10
3 3
10
C2 38
(A) (B) 5.   (C)   (D)
410 4 4 410

B-5 If probability that exactly one of events A, B, C occurs, is 0.6 and probability that none of A,B,C occur
is 0.2,then probability that atleast two of A,B,C occur is
(A) 0.6 (B) 0.4 (C) 0.8 (D) 0.2

Section (C) : Problems based on Conditional Probability/ Total probability & Bayes'
theorem
C-1 Five horses are in a race. Mr. A selects two of the horses at random and bets on them. The probability
that Mr. A selected the winning horse, is :
4 3 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
5 5 5 5

C-2 The probability that A speaks truth is 4/5 while this probability for B is 3/4. The probability that they
contradict each other when asked to speak on a fact, is :
(A) 3/20 (B) 1/5 (C) 7/20 (D) 4/5

1  1
C-3 Let A and B be two events such that P(A  B)  , P(A B) = and P(A)  , where A stands for
6 4 4
complement of event A. Then events A and B are :
(A) mutually exclusive and independent (B) independent but not equally likely
(C) equally likely but not independent (D) equally likely and mutually exclusive

C-4. An instrument consists of two units. Each unit must function for the instrument to operate. The reliability
of the first unit is 0.9 and that of the second unit is 0.8. The instrument is tested & fails. The probability
that “only the first unit failed & the second unit is sound” is “
1 2 3 4
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7 7 7 7
C-5. A pack of cards is counted with face downwards. It is found that one card is missing. One card is drawn
and is found to be red. Then the probability that the missing card is red.
25 26 1 25
(A) (B) (C) (D)
51 51 2 52

C-6. A dice is weighted so that the probability of different faces to turn up is as given
Number 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2
If P(A/B) = p1 and P(B/C) = p2 and P(C/A) = p3 then the values of p1, p2, p3 respectively are -
Take the events A, B & C as A = {1, 2, 3}, B = {2, 3, 5} and C = {2, 4, 6}
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1
(A) , , (B) , , (C) , , (D) , ,
3 3 4 3 3 6 4 3 6 3 6 4

Section (D) : Problem based on Binomial Distribution / Expectation / mean & Variance
D-1. A & B throw with one dice for a stake of Rs. 99/- which is to be won by the player who first throws 4. If A
has the first throw then their respective expectations of rupees are:
(A) 50 & 49 (B) 54 & 45 (C) 45 & 54 (D) 33 & 66
D-2. A fair die is tossed eight times. The probability that a third six is observed on the eight throw, is
7
C2  55 7
C2  55 7
C2  55
(A) (B) (C) (D) None of these
67 68 66

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D-3. A bag contains 2 white & 4 black balls. A ball is drawn 5 times, each being replaced before another is
drawn. The probability that atleast 4 of the balls drawn are white is:
(A) 4/81 (B) 10/243 (C) 11/243 (D) 8/243
D-4. In a series of 3 independent trials the probability of exactly 2 success is 12 times as large as the
probability of 3 successes. The probability of a success in each trial is:
(A) 1/5 (B) 2/5 (C) 3/5 (D) 4/5
D-5. A fair coin is tossed 99 times. If X is the number of times heads occur, if P (X = r) is maximum then
sum of possible values of r is
(A) 98 (B) 99 (C) 101 (D) 104

D-6. The mean and the variance of a binomial distribution are 4 and 2 respectively. Then the probability of 2
successes is :
37 219 128 28
(A) (B) (C) (D)
256 256 256 256

PART - III : NUMERICAL RESPONSE QUESTIONS

INSTRUCTION :
 The answer to each question is NUMERICAL VALUE with two digit integer and decimal upto two digit.
 If the numerical value has more than two decimal places truncate/round-off the value to TWO decimal
placed.

Section (A) : Problems based on Classical definition of Probability (PRCD)

A-1. Nine cards are labelled 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Two cards are drawn at random and put on a table in a
sucessive order, and then the resulting number is read say 07(seven), 42(fourty two) and so on if p the
1
probability that the number is even, then is :
p
A-2. Three of the six vertices of a regular hexagon are chosen at random. Then the probability that the
triangle with three vertices is equilateral is :

A-3. Let is the probability that six boys and six girls sit alternately if they sit randomly in a row, then 154
is :

A-4. A and B throw with two dice ; if A throws 9, then B’s chance of throwing a higher number equals k, then
value of 3k is :

A-5. A & B having equal skill, are playing a game of best of 5 points. After A has won two points & B has
won one point, the probability that A will win the game is:

Section (B) : Problems based on venn diagram & set theory (PRVD)
B-1. Before a race the chance of three runners, A, B, C were estimated to be proportional to 5, 3, 2, but
during the race A meets with an accident which reduces his chance to 1/3. If P and Q are the
respective chances of B and C now, then 5P + 15Q is
B-2. There are three clubs A, B, C in a town with 40, 50, 60 members respectively 10 people are members
of all the three clubs, 70 members belong to only one club. Value of 42p, where p is probability that a
randomly selected member has membership of exactly two clubs, is
B-3. Tickets are numbered from 1 to 100. One ticket is picked up at random. Then the probability that the
ticket picked up has a number which is divisible by 5 or 8 is :
B-4. The numbers ‘a and b ’ are randomly selected from the set of natural numbers. Probability that the
number 3a + 7b has a digit equal to 8 at the units place, is

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Section (C) : Problems based on Conditional Probability/ Total probability & Bayes'
theorem
C-1. The odds against a certain event are 5 to 2, and the odds in favor of another event independent of the
former are 6 to 5. If p be the chance that one at least of the events will happen, then 77p is

C-2. In a building programme the event that all the materials will be delivered at the correct time is M, and
the event that the building programme will be completed on time is F. Given that P(M) = 0.8 & P(M  F)
= 0.65. If P(F) = 0.7, the probability that the building programme will be completed on time if all the
materials are not delivered at the correct time, is
C-3. A dice is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 8. The conditional
probability that the number 5 has appeared at least once is
C-4. Pal’s gardner is not dependable, the probability that he will forgot to water the rose bush is 2/3. The
rose bush is in questionable condition. Any how if watered, the probability of its withering is 1/2 & if not
watered then the probability of its withering is 3/4. Pal went out of station & after returning he finds that
rose bush has withered. Then the probability that the gardner did not water the rose bush is.

Section (D) : Problem based on Binomial Distribution / Expectation / mean

& Variance
D-1. South African cricket captain lost the toss of a coin 13 times out of 14. If the chance of this happening is
p, then (212) p is
D-2. A coin is tossed n times, what is the chance that the head will present itself an odd number of times.
D-3. From a bag containing 2 one rupee and 3 two rupee coins a person is allowed to draw 2 coins
randomly then the value of his expectation (in Rs.) is
D-4. A dice is thrown a fixed number of times. If probability of getting even number 3 times is same as the
probability of getting even number 4 times, then probability of getting even number exactly once is P.
value of 256P is :

 Marked questions are recommended for Revision.

PART - I : ONLY ONE OPTION CORRECT TYPE
1. A local post office is to send M telegrams which are distributed at random over N communication
channels, (N > M). Each telegram is sent over any channel with equal probability. Chance that not more
than one telegram will be sent over each channel is:
N N N N
CM . M ! CM . N ! CM . M ! CM . N !
(A) (B) (C) 1  (D) 1 
NM MN MN NM
2. A car is parked by an owner in a parking lot of 25 cars in a row, including his car not at either end. On
his return he finds that exactly 15 placed are still occupied. The probability that both the neighboring
places are empty is
91 15 15 17
(A) (B) (C) (D)
276 184 92 92

3. A 2n digit number starts with 2 and all its digits are prime, then the probability that the sum of all 2
consecutive digits of the number is prime, is
(A) 4 × 23n (B) 4 × 2–3n (C) 23n (D) 22n
4. A fair coin is tossed eight times, then find the probability that resulting sequence of heads and tails
looks the same when viewed from the beginning or from the end.
(A) 1/8 (B) 1/16 (C) 1/4 (D) 1/2

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5. In a regular decagon find the probability that the two diagonal chosen at random will intersect inside the
polygon.
6 12 5 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
17 17 17 17
6. A has 3 tickets in a lottery containing 3 prizes and 9 blanks; B has 2 tickets in a lottery containing 2
prizes and 6 blanks. Compare their chances of success
(A) 952 / 715 (B) 950 / 952 (C) 952 / 710 (D) 425/952
7. A cube painted red on all sides, is cut into 125 equal small cubes. A small cube when picked up is
found to show red colour on one of its faces. Then the probability that two more faces also show red
colour.
4 4 8 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
49 120 49 49
8. The chance that the top card in the deck is a diamond given that the fourth card from the top is a eight
in well shuffled deck.
1 2 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
4 3 2 5
9. A fair coin is tossed 9 times the probability that at least 5 consecutive heads occurs is
9
5 3  1 5
(A) (B) (C) 9C5   (D)
64 32 2 29
10. An urn contains 'm' green and 'n' red balls. K (< m, n) balls are drawn and laid aside, their colur being
ignored. Then one more ball is drawn. Then the probability that it is green.
m n 2n 3n
(A) (B) (C) (D)
mn mn mn mn
11 An urn contains m white and n black balls. A ball is drawn at random and is put back into the urn along
with k additional balls of the same colour as that of the ball drawn. A ball is again drawn at random.
Then the probability that the ball drawn now is white.
m n 2n 2m
(A) (B) (C) (D)
mn mn mn mn
12. There are two urns. There are m white & n black balls in the first urn and p white & q black balls in the
second urn. One ball is taken from the first urn & placed into the second. The probability of drawing a
white ball from the second urn is -
(p  1)n  pm (p  1)m  pn (p  1)m  2pn (p  1)m  pn
(A) (B) (C) (D)
(m  n) (p  q  1) (m  n) (p – q  1) (m  n) (p  q  1) (m  n) (p  q  1)

13. A man has 10 coins and one of them is known to have two heads. He takes one at random and tosses
it 5 times and it always falls head. Then the chance that it is the coins with two heads.
32 32 23 19
(A) (B) (C) (D)
41 51 32 32
14. 2 hunters A & B shot at a bear simultaneously. The bear was shot dead with only one hole in its hide.
Probability of A shooting the bear 0.8 & that of B shooting the bear is 0.4. The hide was sold for
Rs. 280/-. If this sum of money is divided between A & B in a fair way, then find the share of A
(A) 130 (B) 240 (C) 200 (D) 190
15. A number is chosen at random from the numbers 10 to 99. A number whose product of digits is 12 will
be called a good number. If he choose three numbers with replacement then the probability that he will
choose a good number at least once is
(A) 0.872 (B) 0.127 (C) 0.562 (D) 0.461
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PART - II : ONE OR MORE THAN ONE OPTIONS CORRECT

1. In throwing a dice let A be the event ‘coming up of an odd number’, B be the event ‘coming up of an
even number’, C be the event ‘coming up of a number  4’ and D be the event ‘coming up of a number
< 3’, then
(A)A and B are mutually exclusive and exhautive
(B) A and C are mutually exclusive and exhautive
(C)A, C and D form an exhautive system
(D) B, C and D form an exhautive system

2. The probability that 4th power of a positive integer ends in the digit  is P()
4 4 1 1
(A) P(6) = (B) P(1) = (C) P(5) = (D) P(0) =
10 10 10 10

3. A student has to match three historical events i.e. Dandi March, Quit India Movement and Mahatma
Gandhi’s assasination with the years 1948, 1930 and 1942 and each event happens in different years .
The student has no knowledge of the correct answers and decides to match the events and years
randomly. Let Ei : (0  i  3) denote the event that the student gets exactly i correct answer, then
(A) P(Eo) + P(E3) = P(E1) (B) P(Eo) . P(E1) = P(E3)
(C) P(E0  E1) = P(E2) (D) P(E0) + P(E1) + P(E3) = 1

4. Let X be a set containing ‘n’ elements. If two subsets A and B of X are picked at random. The
probability of A and B having same number of elements
2n
Cn 1 1.3.5.....  2n  1 3n
(A) 2n
(B) 2n
(C) n
(D)
2 Ccn 2 .n! 4n
5. A square matrix of order 3 × 3 is formed using the elements of the set {–2016, 0, 2016}
1
(A) Probability of getting a matrix which is symmetric 3 is
3
1
(B) Probability of getting a matrix which is skew symmetric is
36
1
(C) Probability of getting a matrix which has maximum trace is
33
1
(D) Probability of getting a matrix which has minimum trace is
33
6. If M & N are any two events, then which one of the following represents the probability of the occurence
of exactly one of them ?
(A) P (M) + P (N)  2 P (M  N) (B) P (M) + P (N)  P (M  N)
   
(C) P M + P N  2 P M  N    
(D) P M  N + P M  N  
7. Let 0 < P(A) < 1, 0 < P(B) < 1 & P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A). P(B), then:
(A) P(B/A) = P(B)  P(A) (B) P(AC  BC) = P(AC) + P(BC)
(C) P((A  B)C) = P(AC). P(BC) (D) P(A/B) = P(A)
8. A box contains 11 tickets numbered from 1 to 11. Two tickets are drawn similtaneously at random.
Let E1 denotes the event that the sum of the numbers on the tickets drawn is even
and E2 denotes the event that the sum of the numbers on the tickets drawn is odd
Which of the following hold good?
(A) P(E1/E2) = P(E2/E1) (B) E1 and E2 are exhaustive
(C) P(E2) > P(E1) (D) E1 and E2 are equally likely

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 Probability

9. The probabilities of events, A  B, A, B & A  B are respectively in A.P. with second term equal to the
common difference. Therefore A & B are :
(A) mutually exclusive
(B) independent
(C) such that one of them must occur
(D) such that one is twice as likely as the other

10. A bag contains four tickets marked with numbers 112, 121, 211, 222. One ticket is drawn at random
from the bag. Let Ei(i = 1, 2, 3) denote the event that ith digit on the ticket is 2. Then
(A) E1 and E2 are independent (B) E2 and E3 are independent
(C) E3 and E1 are independent (D) E1, E2, E3 are independent

11. In an experimental performance of a single throw of a pair of unbiased normal dice, three events E 1, E2
& E3 are defined as follows:
E1: getting a prime numbered face on each dice
E2: getting the same number on each dice
E3: getting a sum total of dots on two dice equal to 8. Then:
(A) the events E1, E2 & E3 are mutually exclusive
(B) the events E1, E2 & E3 are not pairwise mutually exclusive
(C) the events E1, E2 are independent
(D) P(E3E1) = 2/9.

12. If 4 whole numbers taken at random are multiplied together

16
(A) Probability that the last digit in the product is 1, 3, 7 or 9 is
625
369
(B) Probability that the last digit in the product is ‘5’ is
10 4
3727
(C) Probability that the last digit in the product is 0 is
104
2357
(D) Probability that the last digit in the product is 0 is
104

13. An experiment has 10 equally likely outcomes. Let A and B be non-empty events of the experiment. If A
consists of 4 outcomes, the number of outcomes that B may have so that A and B are independent, is :
(A) 5 (B) 3 (C) 9 (D) 10

14. For any two events A & B defined on a sample space,

P(A)  P(B)  1
(A) P  A B  , P (B)  0 is always true
P(B)
(B)  
P A  B = P (A) - P (A  B)
(C) P (A  B) = 1 - P (Ac). P (Bc), if A & B are independent
(D) P (A  B) = 1 - P (Ac). P (Bc), if A & B are disjoint

15. A student appears for tests I, II & III. The student is successful if he passes either in tests I & II or tests I
& III. The probabilities of the student passing in the tests I, II & III are p, q &
1/2 respectively. If the probability that the student is successful is 1/2, then:
(A) p = 1, q = 0
(B) p = 2/3, q = 1/2
(C) p = 3/5, q = 2/3
(D) there are infinitely many values of p & q.
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 Probability

16. There are n urns numbered 1 to n. The ith urn contains i white and (n + 1 – i) black balls. Let Ei denote
the event of selecting ith urn at random and let W denote the event that the ball drawn from the
selected urn is white. Which of the following option(s) is (are) correct :
2
(A) If P(Ei)  i for i = 1, 2, ......, n, then lim P(W) = .
n  3
1
(B) If P(Ei) = c, a constant i, then P(En | W) =
2
2
(C) If P(Ei) = c, a constant i, then P(En | W) =
n 1
1
(D) If n is even and P(Ei) =  n and E denotes the event of choosing even numbered urn, then
n
n2
P(W | E) =
2(n  1)
x
 1
17. A random variable x takes values 0, 1, 2, 3, ....., with probability proportional to (x + 1)   , then
5
16 112
(A) P(x = 0) = (B) P(x  1) =
25 125
9 25
(C) P(x  1) = (D) E(x) =
25 32

18. The probability that a bulb produced by a factory will fuse after an year of use is 0.1. Then the
probability that out of 4 such bulbs
94
(A) None of then bulb will fuse after an year of use is
10 4
1
(B) More then three bulbs will fuse after an year of use is
10 4
9999
(C) Not more then three bulbs will fuse after an year of use is
10000
1
(D) All the bulbs will fuse after an year of use is
10 4

19. Mean and variance of a Binomial variate of 10 trials of the experiment are in the ratio of 3 : 2.
(A) The most probable number of happening of variable is 3
(B) Sum of the mean and variance is 10
8064
(C) Probability of getting exactly 5 success is
310
(D) The most probable number of happening of variable is 5

20. An unbiased coin is tossed n times. Let X denote the number of times head occurs. If
P(X = 4), P (X = 5) and P(X = 6) are in AP, then the value of n can be
(A) 7 (B) 10 (C) 12 (D) 14

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 Probability

PART - III : NUMERICAL RESPONSE QUESTIONS

INSTRUCTION :
 The answer to each question is NUMERICAL VALUE with two digit integer and decimal upto two digit.
 If the numerical value has more than two decimal places truncate/round-off the value to TWO decimal
placed.

1. Seven digits from the number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9 are written in random order. The probability that
p
this seven digit number is divisible by 9 is then value of p2 + q2 is.
q
(Where p & q are co-prime natural numbers)
2. A mapping is selected at random from all the functional mappings defined on the set A consisting of
three distinct elements. Probability that the mapping selected is one to one is

3. There is a three volume dictionary among 40 books arranged on a shelf in random order. Then the
raciprocal of probability of these volumes standing in increasing order from left to right (the volumes are
not necessarily kept side by side) is

4. Three numbers are chosen at random without replacement from {1, 2, 3,......, 10}. The probability that
p
the minimum of the chosen numbers is 3 or their maximum is 7, is then q –2p equal (where p and q
q
are coprime numbers)

5. In a multiple choice question there are 4 alternative answers of which 1, 2, 3 or all may be correct. A
candidate will get marks in the question only if he ticks all the correct answer. The candidate decides to
tick answers at random. If he is allowed upto 5 chances to answer the question, If the probability that he
will get the marks in the question is p then 40p equals

6. 3 firemen X, Y and Z shoot at a common target. The probabilities that X and Y can hit the target are
2/3 and 3/4 respectively. If the probability that exactly two bullets are found on the target is 11/24, then
the probability of Z to hit the target is
7. A card is drawn from a pack, the card is replaced & the pack shuffled. If this is done 6 times, the
p
probability that the cards drawn are 2 hearts, 2 diamonds & 2 black cards is then total number of
q
pq
proper divisors of . (Where p & q are co-prime natural numbers):
2
8. A gambler has one rupee in his pocket. He tosses an unbiased normal coin unless either he is ruined or
unless the coin has been tossed for a maximum of five times. If for each head he wins a rupee and for
each tail he looses a rupee, then if the probability that the gambler is ruined is
9. There are 4 urns. The first urn contains 1 white & 1 black ball, the second urn contains 2 white & 3
black balls, the third urn contains 3 white & 5 black balls & the fourth urn contains 4 white & 7 black
balls. The selection of each urn is not equally likely. The probability of selecting i th urn is
i2  1
(i = 1, 2, 3, 4). If we randomly select one of the urns & draw a ball, then the probability of ball
34
p
being white is then sum of digits of p is. (Where p & q are co-prime natural numbers) :
q
10. In a Nigerian hotel, among the english speaking people 40% are English & 60% Americans. The
English & American spellings are "RIGOUR" & "RIGOR" respectively. An English speaking person in the
hotel writes this word. A letter from this word is chosen at random & found to be a vowel. If the
1
probability that the writer is an Englishman is a/b, then (5a + b + 23) equals. (Where a & b are co-
4
prime natural numbers)
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 Probability

11. Mr. Modi is a professional tea taster. When given a high grade tea, he will identify it with probability 0.9
correctly as high grade and will mistake it for a low grade tea with probability 0.1 . When given a low
grade tea, he will identify it with probability 0.8 correctly as low grade tea and will mistake it for a high
grade tea with probability 0.2 . Suppose that Mr. Modi is given ten unlabelled cups of tea, three with
high grade and seven with low grade tea. He randomly picks a cup, tries the tea and solemnly says
“high grade tea”. Then the probability that the tea he tasted was low grade tea is

12. 3 cards are given, one of them is red on both sides, one is blue on both sides & one is blue on one side
and red on the other side. One of them is chosen randomly & put on the table. It shows red colour on
p
the upper side. If probability of the other side of the card being red is (where p and q are co-prime
q
10p + 15q
natural numbers) then is
4

13. In a purse there are 10 coins, all 5 paise except one which is a rupee. In another purse there are 10
coins all 5 paise. 9 coins are taken out from the former purse & put into the latter & then 9 coins are
taken out from the latter & put into the former. Then the chance that the rupee is still in the first purse is

14. A Teacher wrote either of words “PARALLELOGRAM” or “PARALLELOPIPED” on board but due to
malfunction of marker words is not properly written and only two consecutive letters "RA" are visible
then the chance that the written word is “PARALLELOGRAM” is

15. Suppose that of all used cars of a particular year, 30% have bad brakes. You are considering buying a
used car of that year. You take the car to a mechanic to have the brakes checked. The chance that the
mechanic will give you wrong report is 20%. Assuming that the car you take to the mechanic is selected
" at random" from the population of cars of that year. The odds in favor of chance that the car's brakes
are good given that the mechanic says its brakes are good is

16. A bag contains (n + 1) coins. It is known that one of these coins has a head on both sides, whereas the
other coins are normal. One of these coins is selected at random & tossed. If the probability that the
toss results in head, is 7/12, then the value of n is.

17. In a certain factory machines A, B and C produce bolts. of their production A, B and C produce 2%, 1%
and 3% defective bolts respectively. Machine A produces 35% of the total output of bolts machine B
produces 25% and machine C produces 40%. A bolts is chosen at random from the factory’s
production and its found to be defective. The odds in favor that it was produced on machine C is

1 1 1
18. A couple has one or two or three children with probability , and respectively. Probability of a
4 2 4
p
couple having exactly four grandchildren in such a type of society is then sum of digit of q equals.
q
(Where p & q are co-prime natural numbers)

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 Probability

PART - IV : MISCELLANEOUS (MTC & COMPREHENSION)

1. Column –  Column – 
 
 (A) If the probability that units digit in square of an even integer is 4 (p) 1
is p, then the value of 5p is
1
(B) If A and B are independent events and P(A  B) = , (q) 2
6
1  
B
P(A) = , then 6P   =
3 A
(C) One mapping is selected at random from all mappings of (r) 3
the set S = {1, 2, 3, ......, n} into itself. If the probability that
3
the mapping is one-one is , then the value of n is
32
(D) A boy has 20% chance of hitting at a target. Let p denote (s) 4
the probability of hitting the target for the first time at the nth
trial. If p satisfies the inequality 625p2 – 175p + 12  0, then
value of n is

2. Column –  Column – 

          
 (A) A pair of dice is thrown. If total of numbers turned up (p) 5/16
on both the dice is 8, then the probability that the
number turn up on the second dice is 5’ is

(B) A box contains 4 white and 3 black balls. Two balls are (q) 1/3
drawn successively and is found that second ball is
white, then the probability that Ist ball is also white is
1
(C) A biased coin with probability p, 0 < p < 1 of heads is (r)
2
tossed until a head appears for the first time. If the
probability that the number of tosses required is even is 2/5,
then p equals
1
(D) A coin whose faces are marked 3 and 5 is tossed 4 times : what (s)
5
is the probability that the sum of the numbers thrown being less,
than 15?

COMPREHENSION
Comprehension (Q. 3 to 5)
If sample space contains infinite number of points then with the help of geometry that is length, area,
volume many problems of probibility can be solved
For example : A point is selected randomely inside the circle then the probability that it is nearer to
centre then its circumeference
r 2
Favourable Area 1
Probability = = 42 =
Total Area r 4

3. A sphere is circumscribed over a cube. Find the probability that a point lies inside the sphere, lies
outside the cube.
2 1 1 2
(A) 1 – (B) 1 – (C) 1 – (D) 1 –
 3  3 2 3 2 3
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 Probability

4. A parallelogram is inscribed inside a circle of radius 10 cm. One side of parallelogram being 12 cms.
Then the probability that a point inside the circle also lies inside the parallelogram.
48 24 42 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
25 25 25 2

5. The sides of a rectangle are chosen at random, each less than 10 cm, all such lengths being equally
likely. The chance that the diagonal of the rectangle is less than 10 cm is
(A) 1/10 (B) 1/20 (C) /4 (D) /8
Comprehension (Q. 6 to 8)
A JEE aspirant estimates that he will be successful with an 80 percent chance if he studies 10 hours
per day, with a 60 percent chance if he studies 7 hours per day and with a 40 percent chance if he
studies 4 hours per day. He further believes that he will study 10 hours, 7 hours and 4 hours per day
with probabilities 0.1, 0.2 and 0.7 respectively.

6. The chance he will be successfull is

(A) 0.28 (B) 0.38 (C) 0.48 (D) 0.58

7. Given that he is successful the chance that he studied for 4 hours, is

6 7 8 9
(A) (B) (C) (D)
12 12 12 12

8. Given that he does not achieve success, the chance that he studied for 4 hour, is
18 19 20 21
(A) (B) (C) (D)
26 26 26 26

Comprehension (Q. 9 to 10)

A bag contain 6 Red and 4 White balls. 4 balls are drawn one by one without replacement and were
found to be atleast 2 white.

9. Then the probablity that next draw of a ball from this bag will give a white ball.
34 19 90 24
(A) (B) (C) (D)
115 115 115 115

10. If the next draw of a ball from this bag will give a white ball then the probablity that the drawn of four
balls initially contain two white and two red balls.
8 15 13 13
(A) (B) (C) (D)
17 17 17 34

Comprehension (Q. 11 to 12)

Eight digit number can be formed using all the digits 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,5.

11. A number is selected at random then the probability such that no two identical digits appear together
37 43 17 23
(A) (B) (C) (D)
84 84 84 84

12. A number is selected at random then the probability that it has exactly two pair of identical digits
occuring together
1 2 3 4
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7 9 5 9

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 Probability

 Marked questions are recommended for Revision.

* Marked Questions may have more than one correct option.
PART - I : JEE (ADVANCED) / IIT-JEE PROBLEMS (LAST 10 YEARS)
Comprehension (Q.1 & 2)
Let U1 and U2 be two urns such that U1 contains 3 white and 2 red balls, and U2 contains only 1 white
ball. A fair coin is tossed. If head appears then 1 ball is drawn at random from U 1 and put into U2.
However, if tail appears then 2 balls are drawn at random from U 1 and put into U2. Now 1 ball is drawn
at random from U2. [IIT-JEE 2011, Paper-1, (3, –1), 80]
1. The probability of the drawn ball from U2 being white is
13 23 19 11
(A) (B) (C) (D)
30 30 30 30

2. Given that the drawn ball from U2 is white, the probability that head appeared on the coin is
17 11 15 12
(A) (B) (C) (D)
23 23 23 23
11
3.* Let E and F be two independent events. The probability that exactly one of them occurs is and the
25
2
probability of none of them occurring is . If P(T) denotes the probability of occurrence of the event T,
25
then
4 3 1 2
(A) P(E) = , P(F) = (B) P(E) = , P(F) =
5 5 5 5
2 1 3 4
(C) P(E) = , P(F) = (D) P(E) = , P(F) =
5 5 5 5

4*. A ship is fitted with three engines E1, E2 and E3. The engines function independently of each other with
1 1 1
respective probabilities , and . For the ship to be operational at least two of its engines must
2 4 4
function. Let X denote the event that the ship is operational and let X 1, X2 and X3 denotes respectively
the events that the engines E1 E2 and E3 are functioning. Which of the following is (are) true ?
3 7
(A) P  X1c | X  (B) P[ Exactly two engines of the ship are functioning | X] =
  16 8
5 7
(C) P[X | X2] = (D) P[X | X1] = [IIT-JEE 2012, Paper-1, (4, 0), 70]
16 16
5. Four fair dice D1, D2, D3 and D4 each having six faces numbered 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are rolled
simultaneously. The probability that D4 shows a number appearing on one of D1, D2 and D3 is
[IIT-JEE 2012, Paper-2, (3, –1), 66]
91 108 125 127
(A) (B) (C) (D)
216 216 216 216
1 1 1
6*. Let X and Y be two events such that P(X | Y) = , P(Y | X) = and P(X  Y) = . Which of the
2 3 6
following is (are) correct ? [IIT-JEE 2012, Paper-2, (4, 0), 66]
2
(A) P(X  Y) = (B) X and Y are independent
3
1
(C) X and Y are not independent (D) P(XC  Y) =
3
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 Probability

1 3 1 1
7. Four persons independently solve a certain problem correctly with probabilities , , , . Then the
2 4 4 8
probability that the problem is solved correctly by at least one of them is
[JEE (Advanced) 2013, Paper-1, (2, 0)/60]
235 21 3 253
(A) (B) (C) (D)
256 256 256 256

8. Of the three independent events E1, E2 and E3, the probability that only E1 occurs is ,only E2 occurs is
 and only E3 occurs is . Let the probability p that none of events E1, E2 or E3 occurs satisfy the
equations (– 2) p = and (– 3) p = 2. All the given probabilities are assumed to lie in the
interval (0, 1).
Pr obability of occurrence of E1
Then = [JEE (Advanced) 2013, Paper-1, (4, – 1)/60]
Pr obability of occurrence of E3

Comprehension (Q.9 & 11)

A box B1 contains 1 white ball, 3 red balls and 2 black balls. Another box B2 contains 2 white balls, 3 red
balls and 4 black balls. A third box B3 contains 3 white balls, 4 red balls and 5 black balls.

9. If 1 ball is drawn from each of the boxes B1, B2 and B3, the probability that all 3 drawn balls are of the
same colour is [JEE (Advanced) 2013, Paper-2, (3, –1)/60]
82 90 558 566
(A) (B) (C) (D)
648 648 648 648

10. If 2 balls are drawn (without replacement) from a randomly selected box and one of the balls is white
and the other ball is red, the probability that these 2 balls are drawn from box B2 is
[JEE (Advanced) 2013, Paper-2, (3, –1)/60]
116 126 65 55
(A) (B) (C) (D)
181 181 181 181

11. Three boys and two girls stand in a queue. The probability, that the number of boys ahead of every girl
is at least one more than the number of girls ahead of her, is [JEE (Advanced) 2014, Paper-2, (3, –1)/60]
1 1 2 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
2 3 3 4

Comprehension (Q.12 & 13)

Box 1 contains three cards bearing numbers 1, 2, 3; box 2 contains five cards bearing numbers 1, 2, 3,
4, 5; and box 3 contains seven cards bearing numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. A card is drawn from each of
the boxes. Let xi be the number on the card drawn from the ith box, i = 1, 2, 3.
[JEE (Advanced) 2014, Paper-2, (3, –1)/60]
12. The probability that x1 + x2 + x3 is odd, is
29 53 57 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
105 105 105 2
13. The probability that x1, x2, x3 are in an arithmetic progression, is
9 10 11 7
(A) (B) (C) (D)
105 105 105 105

14. The minimum number of times a fair coin needs to be tossed, so that the probability of getting at least
two heads is at least 0.96, is [JEE (Advanced) 2015, P-1 (4, 0) /88]

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 Probability

Comprehension (Q.15 & 16)

Let n1 and n2 be the number of red and black balls, respectively, in box I. Let n3 and n4 be the number
of red and black balls, respectively, in box II.
[JEE (Advanced) 2015, P-2 (4, –2)/ 80]
15. One of the two boxes, box I and box II, was selected at random and a ball was drawn randomly out of
1
this box. The ball was found to be red. If the probability that this red ball was drawn from box II is ,
3
then the correct option(s) with the possible values of n1, n2, n3 and n4 is(are)
(A) n1 = 3, n2 = 3, n3 = 5, n4 = 15 (B) n1 = 3, n2 = 6, n3 = 10, n4 = 50
(C) n1 = 8, n2 = 6, n3 = 5, n4 = 20 (D) n1 = 6, n2 = 12, n3 = 5, n4 = 20

16. A ball is drawn at random from box I and transferred to box II. If the probability of drawing a red ball
1
from box I, after this transfer, is , then the correct option(s) with the possible values of n1 and n2
3
is(are)
(A) n1 = 4 and n2 = 6 (B) n1 = 2 and n2 = 3
(C) n1 = 10 and n2 = 20 (D) n1 = 3 and n2 = 6

17. A computer producing factory has only two plants T 1 and T2. Plant T1 produces 20% and plant T2
produces 80% of the total computers produced. 7% of computers produced in the factory turn out to be
defective. It is known that
P(computer turns out to be defective given that it is produced in plant T 1)
= 10 P(computer turns out to be defective given that it is produced in Plant T2),
where P(E) denotes the probability of an event E. A computer produced in the factory is randomly
selected and it does not turn out to be defective. Then the probability that it is produced in plant T 2 is
[JEE (Advanced) 2016, Paper-1, (3, –1)/62]
36 47 78 75
(A) (B) (C) (D)
73 79 93 83

Comprehension (Q.18 & 19)

Football teams T1 and T2 have to play two games against each other. It is assumed that the outcomes
of the two games are independent. The probabilities of T 1 winning, drawing and losing a game against
1 1 1
T2 are , and , respectively. Each team gets 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and 0 point for a
2 6 3
loss in a game. Let X and Y denote the total points scored by teams T 1 and T2, respectively, after two
games. [JEE (Advanced) 2016, Paper-2, (3, –1)/62]

18. P (X > Y) is
1 5 1 7
(A) (B) (C) (D)
4 12 2 12
19. P (X = Y) is
11 1 13 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
36 3 36 2
1 1 2
20. Let X and Y be two events such that P(X) = , P(X|Y) = and P(Y|X) = . Then
3 2 5
[JEE(Advanced) 2017, Paper-1,(4, –2)/61]
4 1 2 1
(A) P(Y) = (B) P(X|Y) = (C) P(X  Y) = (D) P(X  Y) =
15 2 5 5

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 Probability

21. Three randomly chosen nonnegative integers x, y and z are found to satisfy the equation x + y + z = 10.
Then the probability that z is even, is [JEE(Advanced) 2017, Paper-2,(3, –1)/61]

1 36 6 5
(A) (B) (C) (D) 
2 55 11 11
Comprehension (Q.22 & 23)
There are five students S1, S2, S3, S4 and S5 in a music class and for them there are five seats R 1, R2,
R3, R4 and R5 arranged in a row, where initially the seat Ri is allotted to the student Si, i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
But, on the examination day, the five students are randomly allotted the five seats.
(There are two questions based on PARAGRAPH “A”, the question given below is one of them)
[JEE(Advanced) 2018, Paper-1,(3, –1)/60]

22. The probability that, on the examination day, the student S1 gets the previously allotted seat R1, and
NONE of the remaining students gets the seat previously allotted to him/her, is
3 1 7 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
40 8 40 5

23. For i = 1, 2, 3,4, let Ti denote the event that the students Si and Si+1 do NOT sit adjacent to each other
on the day of the examination. Then, the probability of the event T 1  T2  T3  T4 is
1 1 7 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
15 10 60 5
24. There are three bags B1, B2 and B3. The bag B1 contains 5 red and 5 green balls. B2 contains 3 red and
5 green balls and B3 contains 5 red and 3 green balls. Bags B 1, B2 and B3 have probabilities 3/10, 3/10
and 4/10 respectively of being chosen. A bag is selected at random and a ball is chosen at random
from the bag. Then which of the following options is/are correct ?
[JEE(Advanced) 2019, Paper-1,(4, –1)/62]
3
(A) Probability that the chosen ball is green, given that the selected bag is B 3 , equals
8
5
(B) Probability that the selected bag is B3, given that the chosen ball is green, equals
13
39
(C) Probability that the chosen ball is green equals
80
3
(D) Probability that the selected bag is B3, given that the chosen ball is green, equals
10
25. Let S be the sample space of all 3 × 3 matrices with entries from the set {0, 1}. Let the events
E1 = {A  S : det A = 0} and
E2 = {A  S : Sum of entries of A is 7}
If a matrix is chosen at random from S, then the conditional probability P(E 1|E2) equals _____
[JEE(Advanced) 2019, Paper-1,(4, –1)/62]

26. Let |X| denote the number of elements in a set X. Let S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} be a sample space, where each
element is equally likely to occur. If A and B are independent events associated with S, then the
number of ordered pairs (A,B) such that 1 |B| < |A| equals
[JEE(Advanced) 2019, Paper-2 ,(4, –1)/62]
2
27. Let 𝐶1 and 𝐶2 be two biased coins such that the probabilities of getting head in a single toss are and
3
1
, respectively. Suppose  is the number of heads that appear when 𝐶1 is tossed twice, independently,
3
and suppose  is the number of heads that appear when 𝐶2 is tossed twice, independently. Then the
probability that the roots of the quadratic polynomial 𝑥2 − 𝛼𝑥 +  are real and equal, is
[JEE(Advanced) 2020, Paper-1 ,(+3, –1)]
40 20 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
81 81 2 4

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 Probability

28. The probability that a missile hits a target successfully is 0.75. In order to destroy the target completely,
at least three successful hits are required. Then the minimum number of missiles that have to be fired
so that the probability of completely destroying the target is NOT less than 0.95, is …..
[JEE(Advanced) 2020, Paper-2 ,(+3, –1)]

PART - II : JEE (MAIN) / AIEEE PROBLEMS (PREVIOUS 10 YEARS)

1. Consider 5 independent Bernoulli’s trials each with probability of success p. If the probability of at least
31
one failure is greater than or equal to , then p lies in the interval : [AIEEE 2011, I, (4, –1), 120]
32
 1 3  3 11   1  11 
(1)  ,  (2)  ,  (3) 0, (4)  , 1
 2 4  4 12   2   12 

2. If C and D are two events such that C  D and P(D)  0, then the correct statement among the following
is : [AIEEE 2011, I, (4, –1), 120]
(1) P(C|D) = P(C) (2) P(C|D)  P(C)
P(D)
(3) P(C|D) < P(C) (4) P(C|D) =
P(C)
3. Let A, B, C be pairwise independent events with P(C) > 0 and P(A  B  C)  0. Then P(Ac  Bc / C) .
[AIEEE 2011, II, (4, –1), 120]
(1) 1 – P(Bc) (2) P(Ac) + P(Bc) (3) P(Ac) – P(Bc) (4) P(Ac) – P(B)

4. Three numbers are chosen at random without replacement from {1, 2, 3, ..., 8}. The probability that their
minimum is 3, given that their maximum is 6, is : [AIEEE-2012, (4, –1)/120]
3 1 1 2
(1) (2) (3) (4)
8 5 4 5
5. A multiple choice examination has 5 questions. Each question has three alternative answers of which
exactly one is correct. The probability that a student will get 4 or more correct answers just by guessing
is :
[AIEEE - 2013, (4, – 1) 120]
17 13 11 10
(1) 5 (2) 5 (3) 5 (4) 5
3 3 3 3

6. Let A and B be two event such that P A  B  1

6

, P(A  B) =
4
1
and P A 
1
4
 
, where A stands for

the complement of the event A. Then the events A and B are : [JEE(Main) 2014, (4, – 1), 120]
(1) independent but not equally likely (2) independent and equally likely
(3) mutually exclusive and independent (4) equally likely but not independent

7. If 12 identical balls are to be placed in 3 identical boxes, then the probability that one of the boxes
contains exactly 3 balls is [JEE(Main) 2015, (4, – 1), 20]
11 10 12 11
55  2  2  1  1
(1) (2) 55   (3) 220   (4) 22  
3  3  3 3 3
8. Let two fair six-faced dice A and B be thrown simultaneously. If E1 is the event that die A shows up four,
E2 is the event that die B shows up two and E3 is the event that the sum of numbers on both dice is odd,
then whic h of the following statements is NOT True ? [JEE(Main) 2016, (4, – 1), 120]
(1) E2 and E3 are independent (2) E1 and E3 are independent
(3) E1, E2 and E3 are independent (4) E1 and E2 are independent

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 Probability

9. For three events A, B and C, P(Exactly one of A or B occurs) = P(Exactly one of B or C occurs) =
1 1
P(Exactly one of C or A occurs) = and P (All the three events occur simultaneously) = . Then
4 16
the probability that at least one of the events occurs, is : [JEE(Main) 2017, (4, – 1), 120]
7 7 7 3
(1) (2) (3) (4)
32 16 64 16

10. It two different numbers are taken from the set {0,1,2,3,....., 10}; then the probability that their sum as
well as absolute difference are both multiple of 4, is [JEE(Main) 2017, (4, – 1), 120]
6 12 14 7
(1) (2) (3) (4)
55 55 45 55

11. A box contains 15 green and 10 yellow balls. If 10 balls are randomly drawn, one-by-one, with
replacement, then the variance of the number of green balls drawn is [JEE(Main) 2017, (4, – 1), 120]
12 6
(1) (2) 6 (3) 4 (4)
5 25
12. A bag contains 4 red and 6 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from the bag, its colour is observed
and this ball along with two additional balls of the same colour are returned to the bag. If now a ball is
drawn at random from the bag, then the probability that this drawn ball is red, is
[JEE(Main) 2018, (4, – 1), 120]
1 3 3 2
(1) (2) (3) (4)
5 4 10 5
13. Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Let X
denote the random variable of number of aces obtained in the two drawn cards. Then P(X = 1) + P(X =
2) equals : [JEE(Main) 2019, Online (09-01-19),P-1 (4, – 1), 120]
(1) 52/169 (2) 24/169 (3) 49/169 (4) 25/169

14. Let A and B be two non-null events such that A  B . Then, which of the following statements is always
correct ? [JEE(Main) 2019, Online (08-04-19),P-1 (4, – 1), 120]
(1) P(A|B)  P(A) (2) P(A|B)  P(A)
(3) P(A|B) = P(B) – P(A) (4) P(A|B)  1

15. An unbiased coin is tossed 5 times. Suppose that a variable X is assigned the value k when k
consecutive heads are obtained for k = 3, 4, 5 otherwise X takes the value –1. Then the expected value
of X, is : [JEE(Main) 2020, Online (07-01-20),P-1 (4, – 1), 120]
3 1 3 1
(1) (2)  (3)  (4)
16 8 16 8
16. Box I contains 30 cards numbered I to 30 and Box II contains 20 cards numbered 31 to 50. A box is
selected at random and a card is drawn from it. The number on the card is found to be a non-prime
number. The probability that the card was drawn from Box I is :
[JEE(Main) 2020, Online (02-09-20),P-1 (4, – 1), 120]
2 2 8 4
(1) (2) (3) (4)
3 5 17 17

17. An ordinary dice is rolled for a certain number of times. If the probability of getting an odd number 2
times is equal to the probability of getting an even number 3 times, then the probability of getting an
odd number for odd number of times is : [JEE(Main) 2021, Online (24-02-21),P-1 (4, – 1), 120]
1 1 3 5
(1) (2) (3) (4)
2 32 16 16
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 Probability

EXERCISE - 1
PART - I
Section (A)
A-1. (i) {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
(ii) {B1 B2, B1 B3, B1 G1, B1 G2, B2 B3, B2 G1, B2 G2, B3 G1, B3 G2, G1 G2}
A-2. (a) No (b) No
4 1 4 22 16
A-3. A-4. A-5. (i) A-6. (i) (ii)
5 6 15 425 5525
2197 13
C4  4 4
A-7. (i) (ii) 52
20825 C4
Section (B)
B-2 (i) 0.5 (ii) 0.8

B-3 (i) 0.72 (ii) 0.32 (iii) 0.28 (iv) 0.56

2 4
B-4. (i) (ii)
13 13
29 5
B-5. 43 to 34 B-6. B-7.
36 36
Section (C)
2 1 3 16 12 9
C-1. (i) (ii) C-2. C-3. 3/5 C-4. , ,
3 2 4 37 37 37
17 27 8 1 5
C-5. . C-6. (i) (ii) C-7. C-8.
125 56 29 17 9

Section (D)
(14)8 X 0 1 2 3
D-1. 28 rupees D-2. 10C2 . D-3.
1510 27 27 9 1
P( X)
64 64 64 64

xi 0 1 2 3
D-4. 3 2
 19  19 19 216
pi   18  108 
 25  25 3 25 3 25 3

D-5.mean = 2.5, variance = 1.25

PART - II
Section (A)
A-1. (D) A-2. (C) A-3. (C) A-4. (D) A-5. (A) A-6. (B) A-7. (C)
Section (B)
B-1. (A) B-2. (B) B-3. (i) (D) (ii) (B) (iii) (C) B-4 (B) B-5 (D)

Section (C)
C-1 (D) C-2 (C) C-3 (B) C-4. (B) C-5. (A) C-6. (D)

Section (D)
D-1. (B) D-2. (B) D-3. (C) D-4. (A) D-5. (B) D-6. (D)
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 Probability

PART - III
Section (A)
A-1. 01.80 A-2. 00.10 A-3. 00.33 A-4. 00.50 A-5. 00.75
Section (B)
B-1. 06.00 B-2. 10.00 B-3. 00.30 B-4. 00.18 or 00.19
Section (C)
C-1. 52.00 C-2. 00.25 C-3. 00.40 C-4. 00.75

Section (D)
D-1. 03.50 D-2. 00.50 D-3. 03.20 D-4. 14.00

EXERCISE - 2
PART - I
1. (A) 2. (C) 3. (B) 4. (B) 5. (A) 6. (A) 7. (A)
8. (A) 9. (B) 10. (A) 11. (A) 12. (D) 13. (A) 14. (B)
15. (B)
PART - II
1. (AC) 2. (ABCD) 3. (ABCD) 4. (AC)
5. (ABCD) 6. (ACD) 7. (CD) 8. (ABC)
9. (AD) 10. (ABC) 11. (BD) 12. (AB)
13. (AD) 14. (AC) 15. (ABCD) 16. (AC)
17. (ABC) 18. (ABCD) 19. (AC)   20. (AD)
PART - III
1. 82.00 2. 00.22 3. 06.00 4. 18.00 5. 13.33
6. 00.50 7. 29.50 8. 00.68 or 00.69 9. 20.00 10. 14.75
11. 00.34 12. 16.25 13. 00.52 or 00.53 14. 00.68 15. 09.33
16. 05.00 17. 01.26 18. 11.00
PART - IV
1. (A)  (q), (B)  (r), (C)  (s), (D)  (r)
2. (A)  (s), (B)  (r), (C)  (q), (D)  (p)
3. (A) 4. (A) 5. (C) 6. (C) 7. (B)
8. (D) 9. (A) 10. (B) 11. (A) 12. (A)

EXERCISE - 3
PART I
1. (B) 2. (D) 3. (A, D) 4. (BD) 5. (A)
6*. (AB) 7. (A) 8. 6 9. (A) 10. (D)
11. (A) 12. (B) 13. (C) 14. 8 15. (A,B)
16. (C,D) 17. (C) 18. (B) 19. (C) 20. (AB)
21. (C) 22. (A) 23. (C) 24. (AC) 25. (0.50)
26. (422) 27. (B) 28. 6

PART II
1. (3) 2. (2) 3. (4) 4. (2) 5. (3) 6. (1) 7. (1)
8. (3) 9. (2) 10. (1) 11. (1) 12. (4) 13. (4) 14. (1)
15. (4) 16. (3) 17. (1)

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 Probability

SUBJECTIVE QUESTIONS
1. Urn A contains 6 red & 4 black balls and urn B contains 4 red & 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at
random from urn A & placed in urn B. Then one ball is drawn at random from urn B & placed in urn A. If
one ball is now drawn at random from urn A, then find the probability that it is red.

2. Let p be the probability that a man aged x years will die in a year time. Then find the probability that out
of 'n' men A1, A2, A3,......, An each aged 'x' years. A1 will die & will be the first to die.

3. A Sudoku matrix is defined as a 9 × 9 arrary with entries from {1, 2, 3 . . . . . 9} and with the constraint
that each row, each column and each of the nine 3 × 3 boxes that tile the array contains each digit from
1 to 9 exactly once. A Sudoku matrix is chosen at random (so that every Sudoku matrix has equal
probability of being chosen). We know two of square in this matrix as shown. Then find the probability
that the square marked by ? contains the digit 3.

1
2
?

4. 5 girls and 10 boys sit at random in a row having 15 chairs numbered as 1 to 15, then find the
probability that end seats are occupied by the girls and between any two girls an odd number of boys
sit
5. Team A plays with 5 other teams exactly once. Assuming that for each match the probabilities of a win,
draw and loss are equal then find the probability that A wins and losses equal no. of matches.

6. Suppose that S be the set of all the ordered 4-tuples (x, y, z, w) of the +ve integers, which are the
solutions of x + y + z + w = 21. One such ordered tuple of solution is selected at random from S. Then
find the probability that x > y.
7. In a betting game in an exhibition two dice P and Q are being used. Dice P has four red faces and two
white faces where as dice Q has two red and four white faces. A fair coin is tossed once. If it shows
head the game continues by throwing dice P. If it falls tail dice Q is thrown. If first n throws of the die all
turns up red then find the probability that P is being used.
8. On a particular day, six persons pick six different books, one each from different counters at a public
library. At the closing time, they arbitrarily put their books to the vacant counters. Then find the
probability that exactly two books are at their previous places.
9. A dice has one 1, two 2’s and three 3’s on its faces. A player throws it till he gets three consecutive 1’s.
If pn is the probability that no 3 consecutive 1's appear in n throws, then prove that
5
(i) p = p = 1 and p =
1 2 3
215
216
(ii) pn 
216
pn3  6pn2  36pn1 , n  3
10. n students filled their forms for a competitive exam. Probability that exactly r students will not appear in
the exam is proportional to r. If probability that out of remaining n–r students exactly i students are
selected is proportional to i. Prove that the probability of exactly two students finally getting selected is
8   1 1  1 1 1 
n        ......   
n(n  1)   2 n   3 4 n 

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 Probability

11. In an organization number of women are µ times that of men. If n things are to be distributed among
 n 1

them then the probability that the number of things received by men are odd is  1   1 
   Evaluate .
 2 
2 
12. The color of a person’s eyes is determined by a single pair of genes. If they are both blue eyed genes,
then the person will have blue eyes ; if they are both brown -eyed genes, then the person will have
brown eyes; and if one of them is a blue-eyed gene and the other a brown-eyed gene, then the person
will have brown eyes. (Because of the latter fact we say that the brown-eyed gene is dominant over the
blue-eyed one.) A newborn child independently receives one eye gene from each of its parents and the
gene it receives from a parent is equally likely to be either of the two eye genes of that parent. Suppose
that Smith and both of his parents have brown eyes, but Smith’s sister has blue eyes. Suppose that
Smith’s wife has blue eyes. Find
(i) What is the probability that both of Smith’s parents has one blue-eyed gene and one brown
eyed gene?
(ii) What is the probability that Smith’s possesses a blue-eyed gene ?
(iii) What is the probability that Smith's first child will have blue eyes ?
(iv) If Smith's first child has brown eyes, what is the probability that both Smith’s genes are brown-
eyed genes?
(v) If Smith's first child has brown-eyes, what is the probability that Smith's next child will also have
brown eyes ?

13. Each square of a 3 × 3 board is coloured either red or blue at random (each having probability 1/2).
Then find the probability that there is no 2 × 2 red square.
14. A fair coin is tossed (2m + 1) times, then find the probability of getting at least m consecutive heads.
15. In a single throw of three dice find the probability of the event ‘a total of 8.

3 5
16. Suppose A & B shoot independently until each hits his target. They have probabilities , of hitting
5 7
the target at each shoot. Find the probability that B will require more shots than A.
17. A quadratic equation is chosen by selecting two real numbers as its roots such that the quadratic
equation doesn't change by squaring the numbers. Now find probability that both roots are equal .

18. Five team of equal strength play against each other in a tournament and each match either ends in a
win or loss for a team. Find the probability that no team win all its games or loss all its game.

19. If A and B has (n + 1) and n fair coins respectively. Then find the probability that A gets more heads
then B.
20. Let the probability pn that a family has exactly n children be pn, where n  1 and p0 = 1 – p(1 + p + p2
+ .....) (0 < , p < 1). Giving birth to a boy and girl is equally likely. If k  1, then find the probability that
the family has exactly k boys.
9 16
21. A bear hides itself either behind bush A with probability or behind bush B with probability .A
25 25
hunter have 5 bullets each of which can be fired either at bush A or B. Hunter hits each target
independtly with an accuracy of 1/4. How many bullets can be fired at bush A to hit the bear with max.
probability.
22. Set A : {randomly choosen 100 years in which 76 are simple and 24 are leap years}
Set B : {randomly choosen 100 years in which 75 are simple and 25 are leap years}
An year is chosen from either set A or set B and is found to have 53 sundays. Probability that the
chosen year was a leap year.
23. In ten trials of an experiment, if the probability of getting '4 successes’ is maximum, then find the range
of probability of success in each trial.

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 Probability

24. There are two lots of identical articles with different amounts of standard & defective articles. There are
N articles in the first lot, n of which are defective & M articles in the second lot, m of which are
defective. K articles are selected from the first lot & L articles from the second & a new lot results. Find
the probability that an article selected at random from the new lot is defective.

25. Find the chance of throwing 10 exactly in one throw with 3 dice.

26. Two players of equal skill, A and B, are playing a set of games; they leave off playing when A gets 3
points or B gets 2 (in each game winner get one point). If the stake is Rs.1600, what share ought each
to take?

27. A family has three children. Event ‘A’ is that family has at most one boy, Event ‘B’ is that family has at
least one boy and one girl, Event ‘C’ is that the family has at most one girl. Find whether events ‘A’ and
‘B’ are independent. Also find whether A, B, C are independent or not.

28. A line segment of length a is divided in two parts at random by taking a point on it, find the probability
that no part is greater than b, where 2b > a

29. Two ants are on the opposite corners of a grid of size 8 × 8 if they move then what is the probability
that they will meet after each travelled eight steps (Assuming that they do not move in backward
direction)

Comprehension (Q. 30 to 32)

If r1, r2, r3, r4 are four numbers which belongs to the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}. If y = ir1  ir2  ir3  ir4 ,
where i = 1

30. Probability of getting y = 4

31. Probability of getting y = –4

32. Probability of getting y = 0

33. Match : A box contains n coins. Let P(Ei) be the probability that exactly i out of n coins are biased.
If P(Ei) is directly proportional to i(i + 1) ; 1  i  n.
(3n  1)
(A) Proportionality constant k is equal to (p)
4n
3
(B) If P be the probability that a coin selected at (q)
n(n  1)(n  2)
random is biased then P is
3
(C) If a coin selected at random is found to be (r)
n2
biased then the probability that it is the only
biased coin in the box is
24
(D) P(En) is equal to (s)
n(n  1)(n  2)(3n  1)

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 Probability

SUBJECTIVE QUESTIONS
32 1  (1  p)n 2 20  10! 5!
1. 2. 3. 4.
55 n 21 15!

17 35 2n
5. 6. 7. 8. 3/16
81 76 2n  1
417
11. =3 12. (i) 1 (ii) 2/3 (iii) 1/3 (iv) 1/2 (v) 2/3 13.
512

(m  3)2m  1 6 1
14. 2m1
15. 7/72 16. 17.
2 31 2

17 2pk
18. 19. ½ 20. 21. 1, 2
32 (2  p)k 1

98 4 5 K nM  LmN
22. 23. p  ,  24. 25. 1/8
249  11 11 MN (K  L)

26. 500 Rs. & 1100 Rs.

27. A and B are independent but A,B,C are not independent

2b  a 16
C8 1 1
28. 29. 16
30. 31.
a 2 256 256
9
32. 33. Aq ; B–p, C–s, d–r
64

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