SIMULATING SOME REAL WORLD PROBLEMS USING A

SET OF ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

(As MTE Evaluation Component)

SUBMITTED BY:
LIPI SINGH 2K20/A17/73
NEHA CHAWLA 2K20/A17/32

SUBMITTED TO:
PROFESSOR L.N. DAS

DEPARTMENT OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS

Delhi Technology University
(Formerly Delhi College of Engineering)
Bawana Road, Delhi-110042
 CANDIDATE DECLARATION

We, Lipi Singh (2K20/A17/73) and Neha Chawla (2K20/A17/32) hereby

declare that the project report titled “SIMULATING SOME REAL WORLD
PROBLEMS USING A SET OF ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL
EQUATIONS” submitted to the Department of Applied Mathematics, Delhi
Technological University, Delhi as the MTE Evaluation Component is original
and not copied from any source without proper citation. This work has not
previously formed the basis for the award of any Degree, Diploma
Associateship, Fellowship or other similar title or recognition.

Place-Delhi
Date-16-07-2021 LIPI SINGH
NEHA CHAWLA

DEPARTMENT OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS

Delhi Technology University
(Formerly Delhi College of Engineering)
Bawana Road, Delhi-110042
 CERTIFICATE

I hereby certify that the project titled “SIMULATING SOME REAL WORLD
PROBLEMS USING A SET OF ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL
EQUATIONS” submitted by Lipi Singh (2K20/A17/73) and Neha Chawla
(2K20/A17/32) to The Department of Applied Mathematics, Delhi
technological University, Delhi is a project work under my supervision. To the
best of my knowledge this work has not previously formed the basis for the
award of any Degree, Diploma Associateship, Fellowship or other similar title
or recognition.

Place-Delhi
Date-16-072021 Prof. L.N. Das
(SUPERVISOR)
Applied Mathematics

DEPARTMENT OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS

Delhi Technology University
(Formerly Delhi College of Engineering)
Bawana Road, Delhi-110042
 SIMULATING SOME REAL WORLD PROBLEMS
USING A SET OF ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL
EQUATIONS

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the project is to

• Solve ordinary differential equations in python.
• Simulating real-world problems with python :
We took a set of differential equations that characterize the dynamics of a
system, and implemented them in Python, and run a simulation of the behaviour
of that system over time.

SIMULATING HIV INFECTION

The spread of HIV in a patient is approximated with balance equations on

Healthy, Infected, and Virus population counts.

INITIAL CONDITIONS

H(0) = healthy cells = 1,000,000

I(0) = infected cells = 0
V(0) = virus = 100

EQUATIONS

The equations are transient balances on the number of healthy cells (H), infected
cells (I), and virus count (V).
provided the rates of cell death, infection spread, virus replication, and other
processes we tried to determine the spread of HIV in the body.

PARAMETERS
kr1 = 1e5 = new healthy cells per year
kr2 = 0.1 = death rate of healthy cells
kr3 = 2e-7 = healthy cells converting to infected cells
kr4 = 0.5 = death rate of infected cells
kr5 = 5 = death rate of virus
kr6 = 100 = production of virus by infected cells

Suppose that a new antiretroviral drug is evaluated in clinical trials. We added

another parameter to take into account the effect of the new antiretroval drug.

Kr7 = 1 = the effectiveness of the drug (rate at which the drug can kill the virus
cells)
Because of the addition of this parameter to the balance equations the third
equation which demonstrates the growth rate of virus cells will change because
kr7 will have an effect on the number of virus cells. (The new set of equations is
given below)
Graph when A = 100(A is a constant representing the dosage of the
antiretroviral drug)

Graph when A = 10000(the green curve representing the virus count changes
inn the graph)

The blue line represents the number of healthy cells. The green curve represents
the virus count and the orange curve represents the number of infected cells. In
the second graph after three years there is a sudden drop in the virus count. This
is because the antiretroviral drug is introduced three years after the infection
starts to spread.

SEIR MODEL
The SEIR diagram below shows how individuals move through each compartment
in the model. The dashed line shows how the SEIR model becomes an SEIRS
(Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered - Susceptible) model, where
recovered people may become susceptible again.

Susceptible(S) - population fraction that is susceptible to the virus

Expose (E) - population fraction is infected with the virus but does not
transmit to others
Infectious (I) -population fraction that is infected and can infect others
Recovered (R) -population fraction recovered from infection and is
immune from further infection
Alpha = infectious rate i.e. rate at which an exposed individual gets infected
(1/Incubation time)
Gamma = recovery rate i.e. inverse of the rate at which infection is spreading
(1/infection time)
Beta = R0*gamma (where R0 = how contagious the disease is i.e. on
average how many people can get infected from one individual)

CODE
RESULT

The plot showing fraction of infected and exposed individuals for 30% social
distancing is flatter than the plot where social distancing is 10%. Social
distancing decreases the fraction of exposed people from 0.1 to almost 0.5.
Infected individuals also decrease. Models like these can be used to predict the
future of a pandemic, how it might spread.

PRESENTATION OF THE LOTKA-VOLTERRA MODEL

The Lotka-Volterra model, also known as the predator-prey equations is a pair
of first order non-linear differential equations frequently used to describe the
dynamics of biological systems in which two species interact one a predator
and the other its prey. The model was proposed independently by Alfred J.
Lotka in 1925 and Vito Volterra in 1926, and can be described by

dx/dt=ax−bxy

dy/dt=−cy+dxy

with the following notations:

x: number of preys (for example, rabbits) y: number of predators (for

example, foxes) a, b, c, d are constant parameters defining the behavior of
the population:
a is the natural growing rate of rabbits, when there's no fox
b is the natural dying rate of rabbits, due to predation
c is the natural dying rate of fox, when there's no rabbit
d is the factor describing how many caught rabbits let create a new
fox
We will use X = [u, v] to describe the state of both populations.

CODE
RESULT

The red plot represents the number of preys and the green plot represents the
number of predators. both populations initially rise until the increasing predator
population starts to thin the prey population as a result of predation. The initially
large prey population starts to fall and eventually it reaches a point at which the
growth in the predator population is no longer sustainable, and it also starts to
fall. Once the struggling predator population has bottomed out as a result of the
shortage of food, the prey population, unburdened by the previous high levels of
predation, bounces back, eventually driving a similar recovery in the predator
population - and so the boom and bust cycles repeat, with the peaks and troughs
of the two populations always slightly out of phase.

FUTURE PROSPECTS
• The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection spreads and can
develop into acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). AIDS can
lead to immune system failure and eventual inability to defend the body
against infection or cancer. Without treatment with antiretroviral drugs,
survival time after infection with HIV is about 9 to 11 years, depending
on a number of factors. The simulation predicts the spread of HIV
infection in a body with an initial infection. Simulations like these can be
used to predict the effects of a drug and its ability to fight the spread of
infection. We can also predict the dosage required
• The SEIR model for COVID19 can be useful in predicting the future of
the pandemic. A time-dependent SEIR model can help analyse the
evolution of the SARS-covid-2 epidemic.
• Modelling biological systems can be used as a way to mathematically
represent the ecosystem. Most population dynamics models would be
considerably more complex than the example we considered but models
like THE LOTKA-VOLTERRA MODEL these can be useful for
understanding complex food-webs.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ordinary_differential_equation

• Khan academy:
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/differential-equations

• PyMan 0.9.31 documentation

https://physics.nyu.edu/pine/pymanual/html/chap9/chap9_scipy.html#solvingodes

• https://docs.idmod.org/projects/emod-hiv/en/latest/model-seir.html

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka%E2%80%93Volterra_equations

• https://docs.idmod.org/projects/emod-generic/en/latest/model-sir.html