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Word Format LAS Statistics and Prob 3

This document provides learning materials on confidence intervals for proportions and choosing sample sizes. It defines key concepts such as population proportion and confidence interval estimators. Examples are provided to illustrate how to compute confidence intervals for population proportions given sample data. Additional examples demonstrate how to calculate the necessary sample size needed to estimate a population mean or proportion within a given margin of error and confidence level. Exercises at the end reinforce these concepts.

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maricel sulapas
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65 views

Word Format LAS Statistics and Prob 3

This document provides learning materials on confidence intervals for proportions and choosing sample sizes. It defines key concepts such as population proportion and confidence interval estimators. Examples are provided to illustrate how to compute confidence intervals for population proportions given sample data. Additional examples demonstrate how to calculate the necessary sample size needed to estimate a population mean or proportion within a given margin of error and confidence level. Exercises at the end reinforce these concepts.

Uploaded by

maricel sulapas
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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WEEKLY LEARNING ACTIVITY SHEETS

Statistics and Probability Quarter 2 Week 2

Confidence Intervals for Proportions and


Choosing the Sample Size

Learning Objectives:
At the end of this activity, you are expected to:
• understand the population proportion p;
• compute the point estimator of a population proportion;
• identify the appropriate form of the confidence interval estimator
for the population proportion;
• compute the interval estimates of population proportions; and
• solve problems involving confidence interval estimation of the
population proportion.

Key Concepts:
• population proportion
• population proportion point estimator
• population proportion interval estimator

Discussion:

A Large Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion


Recall that a confidence interval for a population mean is given by

Confidence Interval for a Population Mean


𝑧
𝑐𝑠
x±

We can make a similar construction for a confidence interval for a population

proportion.Instead ofx, we can usep and instead of


s, we use , hence, we can
write the confidence interval for a large sample proportion as

ConfidenceInterval Margin
of Error for a Population Proportion
Example 1:
1000 randomly selected Filipinos were asked if they believed the minimum wage
should be raised. 600 said yes. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of
Filipinos who believe that the minimum wage should be raised.

Solution: We
have
p = 600/1000 = 0.6 (point estimator) z c = 1.96 (since we have n = 1000, so
d.f. = 999 with 95% confidence level from t- Table) and n = 1000 We calculate:

Hence we can conclude that between 57 and 63 percent of all Filipinos agree with the
proposal. In other words, with a margin of error of 0.03, 60% agree.

Calculating n for Estimating a Mean

Example 2:
Suppose that you were interested in the average number of units that students take at a two
year college to get an AA degree. Suppose you wanted to find a 95% confidence interval
with a margin of error of 0.5 for m knowing s = 10. How many people should we ask?

Solution
Solving for n in
𝑠
Margin of Error E = 𝑧𝑐
we have
E = 𝑧𝑐𝑠 (cross product)
(divide both sides by E)
𝐸

n = (𝑧𝑐𝑠)2 (squaring both sides)


𝐸
Squaring both sides, we get

We use the formula:


Example 3:
A Subaru dealer wants to find out the age of their customers (for advertising purposes).
They want the margin of error to be 3 years old. If they want a 90% confidence interval,
how many people do they need to know about?

Solution:
We have
E = 3, zc = 1.65
but there is no way of finding sigma exactly. They use the following reasoning: most car
customers are between 16 and 68 years old hence the range is
Range = 68 - 16 = 52
The range covers about four standard deviations hence one standard deviation is about
s = 52/4 = 13
We can now calculate n:

Hence the dealer should survey at least 52 people.

Finding n to Estimate a Proportion

Example 4:
Suppose that you are in charge to see if dropping a computer will damage it. You want to
find the proportion of computers that break. If you want a 90% confidence interval for this
proportion, with a margin of error of 4%, How many computers should you drop?

Solution
The formula states that

Squaring both sides, we get that


z c2 p(1 - p)
2
E =
n
Multiplying by n, we get
nE2 = zc2[p(1 - p)]
This is the formula for finding
n.
Since we do not know p, we use.5 ( A conservative estimate
)

We round 425.4 up for greater accuracy


We will need to drop at least 426 computers. This could get expensive.

Example 5:
During the 7th examination of the Offspring cohort in the Framingham Heart Study
there were 1219 participants being treated for hypertension and 2,313 who were not on
treatment. If we call treatment a "success", then x=1219 and n=3532. The sample
proportion is:

(point estimator)

This is the point estimate, i.e., our best estimate of the proportion of the population on
treatment for hypertension is 34.5%. The sample is large, so the confidence interval can be
computed using the formula:

Substituting our values we get

which is

So, the 95% confidence interval is (0.329, 0.361).


Thus we are 95% confident that the true proportion of persons on antihypertensive medication
is between 32.9% and 36.1%.

Example 6:
A survey of 1200 citizens showed that 715 trust the president. Compute a 95%
confidence interval for the proportion of all citizens who trust the president.

Solution:
1. Find the point estimate for the population proportion by dividing 715 and 1200. p =

2. Find 1 – p.
1 – p = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4
3. Find 𝑧𝑐 from t-Table given n = 1200 and 95% confidence level which will give us a
value of 1.96

4. Use the formula: p ) to find the limits.

5. Solve: 0.6 ) = 0.6 ± 1.96(0.007) = 0.6 ± 0.014 = from 0.586 to 0.614


proportion limits.
6. Thus, with 95% confidence level, we can state that the interval from 58.6% to 61.4%
contains the true percentage of all citizens who trust the president.

Exercises:

1. Find the proportion estimate p for each of the following:


a. X = 135, n = 378
b. X = 234, n = 512
c. X = 256, n = 624
𝑿
(Note: Remember that p = ).
𝒏

2. Compute the population proportion interval estimate given n, p, and the


confidence level.
a. n = 300, p = 0.4, 95%
b. n = 420, p = 0.61, 99%
c. n = 710, p 0.85, 90%

3. Ismail conducted a poll survey in which 320 of 600 randomly selected


voters indicated their preference for a certain candidate. Using a 95%
confidence interval, what is the true population proportion p of voters
who prefer the candidate?
Reflection:

When we draw conclusions from data, we usually state them in terms of


probabilities. Express a 95% confidence in terms of probability. Explain your
answer.

References for learners:

Bataller, Ramil T., Statistics and Probability. Salesiana Books by Don Bosco Press,
Inc., 2016.

Answer Key:

1. a. 0.36
b. 0.46
c. 0.41

2. a. 0.4 ± 0.045 = from 0.355 to 0.445 or from 35.5% to 44.5%


b. 0.61 ± 0.062 = 0.548 to 0.6162 or 54.8% to 61.62%
c. 0.85 ± 0.022 = 0.828 to 0.872 or 82.8% to 87.2%

3. 0.53 ± 0.04 = 0.49 to 0.57 or 49% to 57%

Alberto M. Aquino Jr.


San Vicente National High School
Butuan City Division
[email protected]

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