What are sets?

Sets are used to perform different experiments or operations.

Intersection: “and”
For example:
1) X = {3, 10, 8, 17}
Y = {3, 20, 18, 17}
X ꓵ Y = {3, 17}
2) A = {11, 4, 12, 7}
B = {13, 4, 12, 10, 3}

A ꓵ B = {??}

UNION = “OR”

For example:
1) X = {3, 12, 5, 13}
Y = {14, 15, 6, 3}
X U Y = {3, 12, 5, 13, 14, 15, 6}

2) A = { 11, 14, 12, 7}

B = {13, 4, 12, 10, 3}

A U B = {??}
 A B

This is called Intersection of A and B

1. Probability: a theoretical approach: also called a classical

probability
Classical probability is the statistical concept that measures the
likelihood (probability) of something happening.
In a classical sense, it means that every statistical experiment will
contain elements that are equally likely to happen.

For example:
• Tossing of a ‘fair’, ‘unbiased’, ‘symmetrical’ coin at random.
• Throwing a fair dice.
• Guessing a MCQ (Multiple Choice Questions).

Classical probability is used for basic events.

1. A bag contains a red ball, a blue ball and a yellow ball, all the
balls being of the same size. Kristina takes out a ball from the
bag without looking into it.
What is the probability that she takes out the (i) yellow ball?
(ii) Red ball? (iii) Blue ball?
2. Suppose we throw a die once. (i) What is the probability of
getting a number greater than 4? (ii) What is the probability of
getting a number less than or equal to 4?
3. Two players, Sangeeta and Reshma, play a tennis match. It is
known that the probability of Sangeeta winning the match is
0.62. What is the probability of Reshma winning the match?
4. There are 40 students in Class X of a school of whom 25 are
girls and 15 are boys. The class teacher has to select one
student as a class representative. She writes the name of each
student on a separate card, the cards being identical. Then she
puts cards in a bag and stirs them thoroughly. She then draws
one card from the bag. What is the probability that the name
written on the card is the name of (i) a girl? (ii) a boy?

Empirical probability:

A process which can produce some well-defined results

(outcomes) is called an experiment.
The experimental probability of happening of an event is the
ratio of the number of trials in which the event happened to the
total number of trials.
The experimental probability of the occurrence of an event E
is defined as:
P (E) = number of trials in which event happened
Total number of trials
 The empirical view of probability is the one that is used in
most statistical inference procedures. These are
called frequentist statistics.

For example:
1. Suppose we toss a coin 100 times and get a head 58 times.
Now, we toss a coin at random. What is the probability of
getting a head?
Solution:
Total number of trials = 100.
Number of times head appeared = 58.
Number of times head appeared
Probability of getting a head =
Total number of trials

P (H) = 58/100

P(T) probability of getting a tail = 29/50

2. A coin is tossed 150 times and head is obtained 71 times.

Now, if a coin is tossed at random, what is the probability
of getting a tail?

Solution: ???
3. Polled 5o people = ‘what is your favorite sport?

Favorite sport Frequency

football 29

Basketball 11
 baseball 6

soccer 3

Tennis 1

What is the probability of football, tennis, basketball being

the favorite sports?

Subjective probability:
Subjective probability is an individual person's measure of belief that an
event will occur. With this view of probability, it makes perfectly good
sense intuitively to talk about the probability that the Dow Jones average
will go up tomorrow.
It is based on educated guess and an estimate.
Since it is subjective, one person's probability (e.g., that the Dow Jones
will go up tomorrow) may differ from another's. This is disturbing to
many people. Still, it models the reality that often people do differ in their
judgments of probability.
Conditional Probability:

The probability of an event X is given then another event Y occurred is

called conditional probability of X given Y.

It is denoted by P(X/Y).

P (A/B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B)

Similarly, when the probability of Y given X is

P(B/A) = P(A ∩ B)/P(A)

For example
A bag contains red and blue marbles. Two marbles are drawn without
replacement. The probability of selecting a red marble and then a blue
marble is 0.28. The probability of selecting a red marble on the first draw
is 0.5. What is the probability of selecting a blue marble on the second
draw, given that the first marble drawn was red?
Solution:

In a group of 100 sports car buyers, 40 bought alarm system, 30 purchased

bucket seats and 20 purchased alarm system and bucket seats. If a car
buyer is chooses at random bought an alarm system, what is the
probability they also bought bucket seats?
Let A be the event of purchasing alarm system = .40
And B be the event of purchasing an bucket seats = .30

And AꓵB = .20

As per the formula

Probability of purchasing an alarm system given also bought bucket seats

=

P (A/B) = P (AꓵB)/ P (B)

= .20/.30= .66 or 66%

Susan took two tests. The probability of her passing both tests is 0.6. The
probability of her passing the first test is 0.8. What is the probability of
her passing the second test given that she has passed the first test?

Let A be the event of passing second test and B be the event of passing
first test
The event of passing both test i.e A and B = 0.6
P(A/B) = P(A and B) / P(B)
= 0.6/0.8 = 0.75

Axiomatic probability:
It is another way to study probabilities with axioms (rules).
S be the sample space of an experiment, the possible outcomes are x, y, z.
Before calculating probability, it should satisfy some conditions
1. P(X) >_=0
2. P(S) = 1
3. 0<_ P(X) <_ 1
4. Probability of any event is equally likely.

Probability of multiple events:

Probability gets a bit more complicated when you have multiple

events.
 For example, when you are tossing two coins, each one could land
heads or tails up. So instead of just two possible outcomes (heads or
tails), there are now four:

• First Coin –{Head, Head, Tail, Tail}

• Second coin- {Tail, Head, Tail, Head}

Sample space = {HH, HT, TT, TH}

Types of Events:

1. Independent events

When multiple events occur, if the outcome of one event DOES

NOT affect the outcome of the other events, they are called
independent events..

• An independent event is an event that has no connection to another

event’s chances of happening (or not happening).
• In other words, the event has no effect on the probability of another
event occurring.

For example:

I. Buying a lottery ticket and finding a penny on the floor.

II. Taking a cab home and finding your favorite movie on cable.
III. Tossing two coins simultaneously.

If A and B are independent events then the probability of occurring

of both events is:

P (A and B) = P (A)* P (B)

A mobile manufactured by a company consists of two types of mobile,

red color mobile phone and black color mobile phone. In the process of
manufacturing of red color mobile phone, 91 out of 100 are non defective.
And in the manufacturing process of black color mobile phone, 95 out of
100 are non defective. Calculate the probability that the assembled type is
non defective.
Solution:
Let X denotes the event that red color mobile phone is non defective and
Y denotes the event that black color mobile phone is non defective.
Probability of non defective red color mobile phone P(X) = 91/100

Probability of non defective red color mobile phone P(Y) = 95/100

Here X and Y are independent

P(assembled type is non defective) = P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y)

= 91/100 ∙ 95/100

= 8645/10000

= 0.8645

2. Dependent events:

• Probability of multiple events when the first event affects the

second.
• If A and B are dependent events then the probability of occurring
both events is:

P (A and B) = P (A)* P (B/A)

1. A bag contains 5 red balls, 10 black balls and 5 blue balls,

a ball is drawn at random and is found to be red, than
another ball is drawn at random without replacement, what
is the probability of getting a black ball?
 3. Simple or Elementary Event: An event having only one
outcome of the experiment is called an elementary event. Ex- 1
If there be only one element of the sample space in the set representing an
event, then this event is called a simple or elementary event.
4. Compound Event:
If there is more than one element of the sample space in the set
representing an event, then this event is called a compound event.

5. Complementary Event:

In case of throwing a die, ‘even face’ and ‘odd face’ are complementary
to each other. “Multiple of 3” ant “Not multiple of 3” are complementary
events of each other.

In other words,

If E and F are two events for an experiment such that every favorable
outcome for the event E is not a favorable outcome for the event F.

For example: In the throw of a die if

E = event of getting an odd number

Then, E¯¯¯¯E¯ or E’ = event of not getting an odd number,

that is, event of getting an even number.

6. Certain Events / Sure Events:

7. Impossible Event:
An event which cannot occur at any performance of the experiment is
called an possible event.
Following are such examples ----
(i) ‘Seven’ in case of throwing a die.
(ii) ‘Sum-13’ in case of throwing a pair of dice.

8. Mutually Exclusive Events:

If two events are such that they cannot occur simultaneously for any
random experiment are said to be mutually exclusive events.
If there is no element common between two or more events, i.e., between
two or more subsets of the sample space, then these events are called
mutually exclusive events.

• Turning left and turning right are Mutually Exclusive (you can't do
both at the same time)

If E1 and E2 are two mutually exclusive events, then E1 ∩ E2 = ∅

For example: rolling a dice at random, what is the probability of getting
an even number or odd number.
Let E be the event of getting an even number and F be the event of getting
odd number
E = {2, 4, 6} F = {1, 3, 5}
If X and Y are two mutually exclusive events, then the probability of ‘X
union Y’ is the sum of the probability of X and the probability of Y and
represented as,
P(X U Y) = P(X) + P(Y)
1. A bag contains 8 black pens and 2 red pens and if a pen is drawn at
random. What is the probability that it is black pen or red pen?
2. What is the probability of getting a 2 or a 5 when a die is rolled?
 9. Exhaustive Events:
All the possible outcomes of the experiments are known as exhaustive
events.
For example; in throwing a die there are 6 exhaustive events in a trial.

• Turning left and scratching your head can happen at the same time

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)
1. Mutually exhaustive. Consider the example of finding the
probability of selecting a black card or a 6 from a deck of 52.
2. We need to find out P(B or 6)
3. Probability of selecting a black card = 26/52
4. Probability of selecting a 6 = 4/52
5. Probability of selecting both a black card and a 6 = 2/52
6. P(B or 6) = P(B) + P(6) – P(B and 6)
7. = 26/52 + 4/52 – 2/52
8. = 28/52
9. = 7/13.
10. Consider another example where a pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If a pen is
drawn at random from the pack, replaced and the process repeated 2 more times, what is the
probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen? Independent event
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 4/9 * 4/9 * 3/9 = 48/729 = 16/243
A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If 2 pens are drawn at random from the
pack, NOT replaced and then another pen is drawn. What is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens
and 1 black pen?
Solution:
Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 4/9
Probability of drawing another blue pen = 3/8
Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 3/7
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 4/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 1/14

Dependent. What is the probability of drawing a king and a queen

consecutively from a deck of 52 cards, without replacement.
Probability of drawing a king = 4/52 = 1/13
After drawing one card, the number of cards are 51.
Probability of drawing a queen = 4/51.
Now, the probability of drawing a king and queen consecutively is 1/13 *
4/51 = 4/663

In a class, 40% of the students study math and science. 60% of the students
study math. What is the probability of a student studying science given
he/she is already studying math?
Solution
P(M and S) = 0.40
P(M) = 0.60
P(S|M) = P(M and S)/P(S) = 0.40/0.60 = 2/3 = 0.67
Mutually exhaustive What is the probability of the occurrence of a number
that is odd or less than 5 when a fair die is rolled.
Solution
Let the event of the occurrence of a number that is odd be ‘A’ and the event
of the occurrence of a number that is less than 5 be ‘B’. We need to find P(A
or B).
P(A) = 3/6 (odd numbers = 1,3 and 5)
P(B) = 4/6 (numbers less than 5 = 1,2,3 and 4)
P(A and B) = 2/6 (numbers that are both odd and less than 5 = 1 and 3)
Now, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A or B)
= 3/6 + 4/6 – 2/6
P(A or B) = 5/6.
A box contains 4 chocobars and 4 ice creams. Tom eats 3 of them one after
another. What is the probability of sequentially choosing 2 chocobars and 1
icecream?
Solution
Probability of choosing 1 chocobar = 4/8 = 1/2
After taking out 1 chocobar, the total number is 7.
Probability of choosing 2nd chocobar = 3/7
Probability of choosing 1 icecream out of a total of 6 = 4/6 = 2/3
So the final probability of choosing 2 chocobars and 1 icecream = 1/2 * 3/7
* 2/3 = 1/7

When two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting a greater number
on the first die than the one on the second, given that the sum should equal
8.
Solution
Let the event of getting a greater number on the first die be G.
There are 5 ways to get a sum of 8 when two dice are rolled =
{(2,6),(3,5),(4,4), (5,3),(6,2)}.
And there are two ways where the number on the first die is greater than
the one on the second given that the sum should equal 8, G = {(5,3), (6,2)}.
Therefore, P(Sum equals 8) = 5/36 and P(G) = 2/36.
Now, P(G|sum equals 8) = P(G and sum equals 8)/P(sum equals 8)
= (2/36)/(5/36)
= 2/5
A bag contains blue and red balls. Two balls are drawn randomly without
replacement. The probability of selecting a blue and then a red ball is 0.2.
The probability of selecting a blue ball in the first draw is 0.5. What is the
probability of drawing a red ball, given that the first ball drawn was blue?
a)0.4
b)0.2
c)0.1
d) 0.5
2. The probability of getting a spade card from a well shuffled deck of 52
cards is

3. The total number of events of throwing 10 coins simultaneously is

(a) 1024
(b) 512
(c) 100
(d) 10
4. 5. Which of the following can be the probability of an event?
(a) – 0.4
(b) 1.004
(c)
(d)
. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. The probability of getting all heads
is

The sum of the probabilities of all elementary events of an experiment is p,

then
(a) 0 < p < 1
(b) 0 ≤ p < 1
(c) p = 1
(d) p = 0
An experiment whose outcomes has to be among a set of events that are
completely known but whose exact outcomes is unknown is a
(a) sample space
(b) elementary event
(c) random experiment
(d) none of these
For an event E, P(E) + P = q, then
(a) 0 ≤ q < 1
(b) 0 < q ≤ 1
(c) 0 < q < 1
(d) none of these
A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and a
number other than six comes up. Find the probability that he reports it is a
six.

Note: when ‘AND’ is given, in that case either independent or dependent

events are considered and multiplication rule will be used.
When ‘OR’ is given, in that case either mutually exclusive or
exhaustive events are considered and addition rule will be used.

Binomial distribution:
Let’s get back to cricket. Suppose that you won the toss today and this
indicates a successful event. You toss again but you lost this time. If you
win a toss today, this does not necessitate that you will win the toss
tomorrow. Let’s assign a random variable, say X, to the number of times
you won the toss. What can be the possible value of X? It can be any
number depending on the number of times you tossed a coin.
There are only two possible outcomes. Head denoting success and tail
denoting failure. Therefore, probability of getting a head = 0.5 and the
probability of failure can be easily computed as: q = 1- p = 0.5.
A distribution where only two outcomes are possible, such as success or
failure, gain or loss, win or lose and where the probability of success and
failure is same for all the trials is called a Binomial Distribution.
The probabilities of success and failure need not be equally likely, like
the result of a fight between me and Undertaker. He is pretty much
certain to win. So in this case probability of my success is 0.15 while
my failure is 0.85
Each trial is independent since the outcome of the previous toss doesn’t
determine or affect the outcome of the current toss. An experiment with
only two possible outcomes repeated n number of times is called
binomial. The parameters of a binomial distribution are n and p where n
is the total number of trials and p is the probability of success in each trial.
1. Each trial is independent.
2. There are only two possible outcomes in a trial- either a success or
a failure.
3. A total number of n identical trials are conducted.
4. The probability of success and failure is same for all trials. (Trials
are identical.)
Normal distribution represents the behavior of most of the situations in
the universe (That is why it’s called a “normal” distribution. I guess!). The
large sum of (small) random variables often turns out to be normally
distributed, contributing to its widespread application. Any distribution is
known as Normal distribution if it has the following characteristics:
1. The mean, median and mode of the distribution coincide.
2. The curve of the distribution is bell-shaped and symmetrical about
the line x=μ.
3. The total area under the curve is 1.
 4. Exactly half of the values are to the left of the center and the other
half to the right.
A normal distribution is highly different from Binomial Distribution.
However, if the number of trials approaches infinity then the shapes will
be quite similar.

Poisson distribution
Suppose you work at a call center, approximately how many calls do you
get in a day? It can be any number. Now, the entire number of calls at a
call center in a day is modeled by Poisson distribution. Some more
examples are
1. The number of emergency calls recorded at a hospital in a day.
2. The number of thefts reported in an area on a day.
3. The number of customers arriving at a salon in an hour.
4. The number of suicides reported in a particular city.
5. The number of printing errors at each page of the book.
The Poisson distribution is the discrete probability distribution of the
number of events occurring in a given time period, given the average
number of times the event occurs over that time period. A certain fast-
food restaurant gets an average of 3 visitors to the drive-through per
minute.
You can now think of many examples following the same course. Poisson
Distribution is applicable in situations where events occur at random
points of time and space wherein our interest lies only in the number of
occurrences of the event.
Exponential Distribution
Let’s consider the call center example one more time. What about the
interval of time between the calls ? Here, exponential distribution comes
to our rescue. Exponential distribution models the interval of time
between the calls.
Other examples are:
1. Length of time between metro arrivals,
2. Length of time between arrivals at a gas station
3. The life of an Air Conditioner
Exponential distribution is widely used for survival analysis. From the
expected life of a machine to the expected life of a human, exponential
distribution successfully delivers the result.
In probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution is
the probability distribution of the time between events in a Poisson point
process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuously and
independently at a constant average rate