Plasco Building Report
Plasco Building Report
COLLAPSE IN TEHRAN
A Preliminary Assessment
FEBRUARY 20, 2017
T he Plasco Building fire, explosion,
and collapse incident in Tehran on
January 19, 2017, was a national tragedy
that will impact the country of Iran for
years to come.
Contributors
Roland Angle, PE
Daniel Barnum, FAIA
David Chandler
Tony Szamboti
Ted Walter
Youcef Seyyedi (Research Translator)
1 http://www.ae911truth.org/images/PDFs/Plasco-final-death-
toll_Fox-News.pdf
2 http://www.meinsurancereview.com/News/View-NewsLetter-Arti-
cle?id=38090&Type=MiddleEast
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose and Recommendations....................................................... 2
AFTERWORD.......................................................................................... 16
INTRODUCTION
O
n January 19, 2017, the iconic 15-story Plasco Building likely hypothesis that investigators should pursue as they at-
in Tehran caught fire at around 8:00 AM local time (4:30 tempt to determine the cause of the building’s collapse.
GMT). After fighting the fires for a little over three hours, the
Tehran fire department believed that it had extinguished the On January 20, 2017, one day after the incident, Architects &
fires. Then, at around 11:20 AM, a series of explosions report- Engineers for 9/11 Truth (AE911Truth) issued a statement3 in
edly occurred inside the building. Within a few minutes of the which we cautioned against rushing to any conclusions and
first reported explosion, the building suffered a total collapse urged President Rouhani, Iranian authorities, and the people
over a period of about 15 seconds. of Iran to thoroughly investigate the possible use of explosives.
Based on the data we have collected and analyzed over the past
month, we can now recommend with a high degree of confi-
1.1 Purpose and dence that investigators should consider controlled demolition
Given this hypothesis, great care should be taken to follow the According to NFPA 921, it is “designed to assist individuals
scientific procedures outlined in NFPA 921 Chapter 23 (Explo- who are charged with the responsibility of investigating and
sions) and Chapter 24 (Incendiary Fires), cited in Section 1.2 analyzing fire and explosion incidents and rendering opinions
below. Those procedures should be combined with interviews as to the origin, cause, responsibility, or prevention of such
of individuals who had access to the building before reaching incidents, and the damage and injuries which arise from such
a final hypothesis. incidents.” It does so by providing “a systematic, working
We also recommend that fire or accidental explosions—or a framework or outline by which effective fire and explosion in-
combination of the two—not be ruled out while investigators vestigation and cause analysis can be accomplished.” Further,
continue to collect and analyze data. However, we have seen “It contains specific procedures to assist in the investigation
no evidence so far to suggest that the building collapsed due of fires and explosions…. Deviations from these procedures,
to either fire or accidental explosions. From a scientific stand- however, are not necessarily wrong or inferior but need to be
point, the fact that fires occurred and then a total collapse justified.”
occurred is not, by itself, a sufficient basis to make collapse
Because AE911Truth is not officially charged with investigating
due to fire the most likely hypothesis.
the Plasco Building incident and does not have access to the
scene, much of NFPA 921 will not apply to this report. How-
1.2 Applying NFPA 921 ever, this report will cite sections of NFPA 921 (shown below)
that can be applied in analyzing the publicly available data. It
To the extent possible and appropriate, this report will draw will also highlight sections of NFPA 921 that should be most
from the principles set forth in NPFA 921: Guide for Fire and relevant to investigators in Iran.
Chapter 4 Basic Methodology 4.3.7 Avoid Presumption. Until data have been collected,
no specific hypothesis can be reasonably formed or tested.
4.1 Nature of Fire Investigations. A fire or explosion investi- All investigations of fire and explosion incidents should be ap-
gation is a complex endeavor involving skill, technology, knowl- proached by the investigator without presumption . . . until the
edge, and science. The compilation of factual data, as well as use of the scientific method has yielded testable hypotheses,
an analysis of those facts, should be accomplished objectively, which cannot be disproved by rigorous testing.
truthfully, and without expectation bias, preconception, or prej-
udice…. With few exceptions, the proper methodology for a fire 4.3.8 Expectation Bias. Expectation bias is a well-estab-
or explosion investigation is to first determine and establish the lished phenomenon that occurs in scientific analysis when
origin(s), then investigate the cause: circumstances, conditions, investigator(s) reach a premature conclusion without having
or agencies that brought the ignition source, fuel, and oxidant examined or considered all of the relevant data. Instead of
together. collecting and examining all of the data in a logical and unbi-
ased manner to reach a scientifically reliable conclusion, the
4.3 Relating Fire Investigation to the Scientific Method. investigator(s) uses premature determination to dictate inves-
The scientific method is a principle of inquiry that forms a basis tigative processes, analyses, and, ultimately, conclusions, in
for legitimate scientific and engineering processes, including a way that is not scientifically valid. The introduction of ex-
fire incident investigation. It is applied using the following steps pectation bias into the investigation results in the use of only
outlined in 4.3.1 through 4.3.9. that data that supports this previously formed conclusion and
4.3.1 Recognize the Need. often results in the misinterpretation and/or the discarding of
data that does not support the original opinion. Investigators
4.3.2 Define the Problem.
are strongly cautioned to avoid expectation bias through prop-
4.3.3 Collect Data. er use of the scientific method.
(6) BLEVEs 24.2 Incendiary Fires Indicators. There are a number of con-
ditions related to fire origin and spread that may provide physi-
23.16 Analyze Fuel Source. Once the origin or epicenter of cal evidence of an incendiary fire cause.
the explosion has been identified, the investigator should deter-
mine the fuel. This determination is made by a comparison of 24.2.4 Exotic Accelerants. Mixtures of fuels and Class 3
the nature and type of damage to the known available fuels at or Class 4 oxidizers (see NFPA 430, Code for the Storage of
the scene. Liquid and Solid Oxidizers) may produce an exceedingly hot
fire and may be used to start or accelerate a fire. Some of
23.16.1 All available fuel sources should be considered and these oxidizers, depending on various conditions, can self
eliminated until one fuel can be identified as meeting all of ignite and will cause the same type of fire growth. Thermite
the physical damage criteria as well as any other significant mixtures also produce exceedingly hot fires. Such accelerants
data. generally leave residues that may be visually or chemically
23.16.2 Chemical analysis of debris, soot, soil, or air samples identifiable. Presence of remains from the oxidizers does not
can be helpful in identifying the fuel. With explosives or liq- in itself constitute an intentionally set fire.
uid fuels, gas chromatography, mass spectroscopy, or other 24.2.4.1 Exotic accelerants have been hypothesized as
chemical tests of properly collected samples may be able to having been used to start or accelerate some rapidly grow-
identify their presence. ing fires and were referred to in these particular instanc-
23.16.4 Once a fuel is identified, the investigator should de- es as “high temperature accelerants” (HTA). Indicators of
termine its source. exotic accelerants include an exceedingly rapid rate of fire
growth, brilliant flares (particularly at the start of the fire),
23.17 Analyze Ignition Source. When the area of origin and
and melted steel or concrete.
1.3 Building Description width along the north and south faces and 22 meters in length
along the east and west faces. The south face was positioned
The Plasco Building was completed in 1962. It was a steel- adjacent to the street. The north face was connected to a four-
frame high-rise containing 15 stories above ground and two story-high by approximately 60-meter-long shopping mall, as
stories below ground.4 It was listed as 42 meters in height.5 shown in the photos below.
While no source seems to give the length and width, from
The south and north faces of the building used steel columns
photos it appears to have been approximately 20 meters in
with diagonals between them for lateral support at each story.
The east and west faces used steel columns with horizontal
4 Some reports say the Plasco Building had 17 stories while other braces tying them together for lateral support. As shown in
reports say it had 15 stories. Counting the stories visible in photo- the approximated plan view in Figure 2 below, the north and
graphs indicates it had 15 stories above ground. It reportedly had
south faces contained eleven bays and the east and west faces
basement floors, suggesting two stories below ground.
5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasco_Building contained twelve bays, with columns between each bay. Alto-
“I was inside and suddenly I felt the building was shaking According to one BBC report, the north wall collapsed first,
and was about to collapse. We gathered colleagues and got which then brought down the rest of the structure.16 Unfortu-
out, and a minute later the building collapsed.”15 nately, there appear to be no publicly available videos showing
the north face during the collapse. Videos from the west,
According to Mr. Kamani’s account, some firefighters evacu- south, and east generally show the collapse initiating on the
ated through the stairwells while some, as is corroborated by south face with what appears to be an explosion around the
videos, were apparently forced to attempt their escape through 11th floor, followed by the roof caving in from the middle.17 As
the windows, in some cases unsuccessfully. shown in numerous videos, every part of the building fell to the
ground within about 15 seconds after the collapse initiated.18
“Some of the firemen came out through the stairwells and
some of them came out on the big ladders from the facade
of the building. And the most heart-wrenching scenes were
those shops on the 11th, 12th, and 13th floors that had fence
T
he purpose of this chapter is to analyze the publicly AE911Truth has endeavored to adhere firmly to these princi-
available data—collected in the first month since the ples in preparing this report.
Plasco Building incident—that appear to be consistent with
the hypothesis that controlled demolition, involving a combi-
nation of explosives and incendiaries, was responsible for the 2.1 Explosions Before Collapse
Plasco Building’s collapse.
NFPA 921 advises that an early task in the initial assessment
As NFPA 921 advises (see Section 1.2), a fire or explosion in- of a fire or explosion incident is to determine whether the in-
vestigation is a complex endeavor. The compilation of factual cident was a fire, an explosion, or both. Based on eyewitness
data, as well as an analysis of those facts, should be accom- accounts, as well as subsequent public discourse in Iran
plished objectively, truthfully, and without expectation bias, concerning the cause of reported explosions, we have deter-
preconception, or prejudice. Expectation bias is a well-estab- mined it was a fire and explosion incident.
lished phenomenon that occurs in scientific analysis when
investigators reach a premature conclusion without having First, there appear to have been small, periodic explosions
examined or considered all of the relevant data. Investigators occurring over an extended period of time before the collapse.
are strongly cautioned to avoid expectation bias through the This is indicated by the account of Saeid Kamani, who had
proper use of the scientific method. been fighting the fires from a fire truck crane:
visualization of the audio analysis. pact-generated noise. The impulses are more consistent
with explosive-generated noise.11
Table 1: Audio Impulses Detected in the Explosion Event Pre-
4. The pulses are too similar to each other in magnitude and
ceding Collapse
quality to be the result of separate spontaneous events.
Pulse Time Interval Accumulated The occurrence of seven separate impulses is consistent with
Occurred (seconds) Time (seconds) video of the south face taken directly from the south,12 which
1 2.144 0 does not show an explosion emanating from one point. Rather,
2 2.232 .088 .088 it shows a number of explosions emanating along the same
3 2.321 .089 .177 floor from the center of the south face to the east side of the
4 2.442 .121 .298 south face.
5 2.544 .102 .4
In summary, the data that have been collected to date regard-
6 2.589 .045 .445 ing possible fuel sources, actual physical damage, and the ex-
7 2.655 .066 .511 plosions’ characteristics suggest that explosives are the only
viable explanation put forward so far for the well-documented
9 http://www.ae911truth.org/images/PDFs/Some-big-bangs-caused- explosions that occurred before the collapse.
the-collapse-of-Plasco.pdf
10 The audio analysis application Photosounder was used to conduct
an analysis of the audio from this video: https://youtu.be/0jz-GXX- 11 Hansen, Colin: “Fundamentals of Acoustics,” (January 1951), p. 48.
kxI8. 12 https://youtu.be/_MgJTa7SDaY?t=58s
Figure 9: Video taken from the south. Figure 10: Video taken from the
Figure 8: Video taken from the east. https://youtu.be/_MgJTa7S- southwest closer to the building.
https://youtu.be/_MgJTa7SDaY DaY?t=58s https://youtu.be/jzB-QE8Emt0
Video taken directly from the south (Figure 9) shows the same
series of expulsions running down the eastern side of the
Cause
south face. That series of expulsions is then followed by a sim- Two causes of the observed expulsions that occurred during
ilar series of expulsions running down the opposite, western the collapse have been posited in discussions of the Plasco
side of the south face. Building incident. One hypothesis is that they were blasts as-
sociated with explosive charges that were being detonated in
Video taken from the southwest, much closer to the building order to destroy the building. The other hypothesis is that they
(Figure 10), shows the two separate series of expulsions that resulted from floor-wide air compression caused by pancak-
ran down the eastern and western sides of the south face. In ing floors.
this video we also see an isolated expulsion that occurs clos-
er to the bottom of the building on the western side—at the Several factors and characteristics of the expulsions cast
same time that the first series of expulsions begins to travel extreme doubt on the air compression hypothesis and make
T
he purpose of this chapter is to evaluate, based on the
currently available data, the feasibility of the hypothesis
Explosions Before Collapse
that fires and/or accidental explosions were responsible for As discussed in Sections 1.4 and 2.1, there were numerous
the destruction of the Plasco Building. It is important that we small and large explosions that occurred prior to collapse.
consider the fire hypothesis carefully—but that we be willing NFPA 921 advises that a BLEVE is the type of explosion encoun-
to evaluate it critically if it does not pass the first test of being tered most frequently by fire investigators. These are mechan-
consistent with the data collected to date. ical explosions (i.e., where the fundamental chemical nature of
the fuel is not changed) involving vessels that contain liquids
under pressure at temperatures above their atmospheric boil-
3.1 Inconsistency with the Data ing points.
In Sections 2.1 and 2.4, we summarized two categories of data BLEVEs involving the gas canisters that Plasco Building tenants
that open air fires are fundamentally incapable of accounting used as fuel for heating could possibly explain the smaller peri-
for: numerous small and large explosions that occurred prior to odic explosions that were observed by Saeid Kamani. However,
the collapse, and large amounts of molten metal in the debris. BLEVEs involving gas canisters cannot account for the larger
We will look at both in more detail below. explosions that occurred in the two to three minutes prior to
the collapse.
In the case of the Plasco Building, we do not know the factor In summary, the hypothesis that fire and/or accidental explo-
of safety, i.e., how many times its load it was designed to with- sions were responsible for the destruction of the Plasco Build-
ing does not appear to pass the first test of being consistent
with the data collected to date. Nonetheless, the fire/accidental
explosion hypothesis should not be ruled out while investiga-
1 Eagar and Musso: “Why Did the World Trade Center Collapse?
Science, Engineering, and Speculation,” JOM (December 2001). tors continue to collect and analyze data.
A sexactly
of this report’s publication, which is
one month and one day after
As we noted in our January 20 statement,
it is often much more difficult to ascertain
the Plasco Building tragedy, a national the truth of an event after an explanation
commission has been appointed by for that event has been prematurely formed.
President Hassan Rouhani for the purpose We therefore urge the commission and the
of investigating the causes that led to the people of Iran to be fearless and vigilant in
fire and collapse and then issuing a report their search for the truth about this national
within two months of the incident (one tragedy that took the lives of 26 individuals.
month from now).
1 http://www.ae911truth.org/images/PDFs/Minister-of-Intelli-
gence-Statement.pdf