Lesson 9 The Psychology & Risk Management of Winning Traders
Lesson 9 The Psychology & Risk Management of Winning Traders
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Plan Your Trade – Risk Profile
One of the most important concepts in trading
options:
- What is the risk profile of your trade?
+ Risk profile analysis on trading platform
- What is the probability of winning?
- What is the worst case scenario?
- What is your contingency plan?
- Break-even analysis
- Profit potential
- Trade behavior
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Risk Reward Analysis
Before ANY trade, review the Risk Reward Profile
of the trade:
• Check the worst case loss
• Can you afford the worst case loss?
• Is it within your portfolio rules (2%, 5%,…)?
• What is the reward to accept that risk?
• Where is the loss cutting point?
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What if you are wrong?
- No one can predict the market moves every time
- Strategy is fine, real skill is in risk management
- You might still be profitable even if you are wrong
… just do not go too far wrong
- Don’t give up when you hit multiple losing trades
in a row. Perseverance is key to winning in the
long term
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Take care of your risk,
Profit will take care of you
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My Costly Mistakes
Mistake #1: Not understanding what could go wrong
with my trades
• I made lots of money selling naked options on VXX and
UVXY. However, I did not have proper understanding of
what could go wrong with it, and became very
complacent
• One day, market crashed, VIX surged in several days,
magnifying the VXX and UVXY spikes, while I did not
have timely adjustments
- All my profits for a year were wiped out within a week
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Psychology & Risk Management
1. Be disciplined:
There is simply no strategy that guarantees 100%
winning rate. Hence, there will be losing trades, and that
is part of the long term winning plan, as long as you
stay disciplined and manage your risks
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Psychology & Risk Management
2. Adjust your trade / cut loss timely – no matter how
much profit you have made, you could be wrong in any
trade. Don’t screw up mentally and financially.
Once losing, you could start to make “revenge” trades
(emotional trades), and that could be a perfect setup
for a disaster
Even if the trend is likely to be reversed, move on –
no woulda, shoulda, coulda
Rule #1 – Protect your capital
Rule #2 – Remember Rule #1
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Remember …
• If you lose 10%, you need to make 11% to recover
• If you lose 25%, you need to make 33% to recover
• If you lose 50%, you need to make 100% to recover
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My Costly Mistakes
Mistake #2: Not adjusting / cutting loss on time
- Iron Condors on SPX
I set clear criteria where I needed to make adjustments,
but did not stick to the plan
- My emotion kicked in, urging me… “what if I just hold on
to my trade for one more day… there must be a trend
reversal”
- This often led to big losses which wiped out the result of
several months
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Psychology & Risk Management
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My Costly Mistakes
Mistake #3: Over trading
• At times, I were so keen on certain trades, and over
traded it – max out account buying power capacity
• When markets moved against me / IV surged, my
account went into margin calls
• It forced me to liquidate some positions - often with
losses
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My Costly Mistakes
Mistake #4: Not diversifying: Iron Condors / Strangles
on /CL
• At times, my portfolio was heavily weighted on 1-2
securities and/or 1-2 option strategies
• When all underlying securities moved against me in a
“perfect storm”, I suffered significant losses
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Psychology & Risk Management
4. Be patient –
Wait for the right time (eg. high IV to sell options)
Do nothing is better than doing something that is not
right
5. Avoid trading through key events -
(eg. OPEC meeting, key election/referendum, etc.)
– The intent is to make money, not to get excitement!
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Tip: My Costly Mistakes
Mistake # 5: Under-estimating the impact of key
events /
IV changes
• On Brexit day, my portfolio suffered big drawdown from
the market volatility (IV surge and lack of liquidity).
Fortunately, I managed to not lose money, due to timely
adjustments
• Oil IV surged during few weeks leading to the OPEC
meeting in Nov/Dec 2016. In addition, OPEC decision to
cut production volume caused +20% surge in oil price
- This resulted in a very bad month for my portfolio
! ACTION: Avoid trading through key events
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Psychology & Risk Management
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Other Watch-Out - My Mistakes
Commissions and fees matter!!!
• Commissions and fees could be a significant cost
and reduce your ROI substantially. Track them
closely and call brokers to clarify if needed
• One of my accounts got charged with hefty fees
without me knowing it until the end of the year
!ACTION:
- Avoid trading securities with low price / low
premiums
- Negotiate better commissions (TOS)
- Watch other (hidden) fees (eg. IB charges)
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Professional Advanced
Options Trading Course
Lesson 9: The Psychology & Risk management
of Winning Traders
www.piranhaprofits.com
www.wealthacademyglobal.com