UNIT 2

LECTURE 4 : Parametric estimation & Confidence Intervals

Hi there,

This is your pal Scooby

Following are my notes for the lecture. These are my handwritten detailed notes. I felt that Prof. R
taught a lot more in the videos than he wrote in the slides. I tried to make them without any
mistakes and cover most of the video material.

But as Beyonce has rightly said : 'To err is human'

I however DO NOT TAKE any responsibilty if you fail your exams following my notes. So please
check the actual lecture slides and videos if you suspect something is wrong.

Also tell me about it at : [email protected]

The notes DO NOT CONTAIN solutions to any homework problems.Only the problems and
exercises solved in the videos are included in these notes.

Here's a motivational quote

'If you don't want to fail, just don't do it... It's that simple silly' ~ K.J. Rowling

Here's a cute photo I googled

I hope these notes will help you too

Let's get started

L€c + 4 : ?aeavETRlc EsrrunrroN AND Conrrpe,NcE anrrrevaug 4,L
D Pavameler Esttnaatton, '. $svrLe. baz;;c defrnlttonc I
. grATtslc : nneasuroble {unc{cot sampte is a shattsttc.
{ d
toe flare the claLa iz vt obszvvahoru
Xr,Xy, Xg _ - ..--.Xn
af rue can T.",1" {*,r"+.o^ out qbo,e sarnple witt be
] { rt
calted a stqhshc tf catn- get solne ruurnerical voJ,ttzls ovlce
l^Je pl.% ir,t -tla"e "r"
obserr,aed .rr,fi^u
fl eo,;c| Xi .

E6. Xr + 2-Xg + ?X3 , is o. statrsttc qg Ltle g,orL

fl^cku rurrne,nico"l
rzalue trorn +hl,s funcltod ,orLce hre pLf_
i,w *tne valueA ,[ v"i Xr,Xa-r X3

Eg. Xt+ l%(t*Xn) : ra o"pt&,tslic o.eruecnr.r,Xoba-

UX " rlnax Xi I ls a. stailshc G.s a.jLe-c
P-gVry iw
; alt -U,r,a obselt/pd va!,tes
4 XrI*" ._u--Xn
1- un
{."d , fr't.t val.ug r^rhjol,r, -ir
lln"e rrLorxirnurn"o$ alj., ol linen-
@ t-
Yi - v.re dot* h,atz a dose'd P'*
4 N, *E, (
[tx;"1) 1"*
ao'tulcoa- otmt it( 11"6k n<,eet*ovufrhab
rue tri't/, de+rn'lbelr6. fl".I a ruuyrtezrcal
aper *"Wru in,-{hr- val,r.rea.
l*"
h,r"is is NoT o sla+rsHc

. EsrruaTo& of q : Ant gtafistic trlrose eupr**imn" doe,c ^nnb dr.;gend wt

g i+setl ls 6t,u ss+in^,a,tar of, v
Jlr" esti.rrtalrr is a ,SEy .+ e stt,na aUng ( o u H 11) -th-e re, aL \cooL y:nltelL g
-olaba lnre l'ralne, h)e. rfu/st wo6. it^'e.
I^sr+t" +l,w I,*t? d sory\e or atl, *Ite.
devntrnotogy l^,arre . h)e prrt a Cap ( A) owY *lnue +Vrrn2 I pavarne,he"r il^LV
We wa,yut'"*o estlrryr"ate .Wa a\so rublcript n" |cetow indlcatLnt
ry"t ^
ttrat -lfus,iS 0" fuvrchoru ora ru Yq]'Lclon/L vartables. Letl see
\ale want +o ast';rnPi'e go:tovwzlex g
a* = A, {ur,cltot + .Tv* caP tndicate'r ilr an es+ir:/toJ"f
"?vailable,s wtil be h&e,qsurabte
Atgo as per de4ir^"tkn&
.ilW- {"urhrr,r
Ih is o' stalLl+i" whichu hor^ rrot deperua]" orr" Y
xGw b*n v$e lr,r.nv€ +o +l4a wur* deptuittcrt nre rrnust Fo+ uundByshrnd {^r.k
8w csbnn atov ig "*,se-\! a nand onrt va.vlable
 4,L
>A ts a, randcrvt vat<i"able,
Statisttc
observahsnA , tl, i*t
Avul stahshc iw ils e,sse.wu. is ir,.st a, tqu
-Jurrcaton
^
-1.1, *\,0, *
conrbln,o"dion, 6lf (sa1) "randdD4 vaxtabtel
,
^ha-"+-""f
Accovdln'6- to the i't$uce'yl*' larnulaliow
hls l'T'ave
Sx q. vf ii'cl vandon't VaruaH'er
X1 , Xl Xa - - -'- 'Xw
'
o.boug vaxr,able wift ako be i+se\e u vandor* vartr'able
4ru6 jurt,ctoru '& the
Iike e% o, Xr *Xz+Xg+ --"'Xn =
jt YL

Xi 4A "ratndom a* ifg va-lue

n i=l cha13e wi-+l^"
wi.tl. t{,l*d
lt
vatles
{
xi/rs

a
Xr * 2Xr + bXs+' "" nXr,, is also a vqndona. varualole
/^.rnrU^.r6 o

oro an, es\anul\oL + sorne

P
OrfO m&w g {s Up aeftrulhort o staltrttc IE
dafa /s ampto
O nrzueasuvab\e function {
9o olbh\ol/qlr" We hqo€
o{-r}rg frue p arawwtw, that wt[L be a dobexrm""niah'c
vtu n*bq/ao #te esfuwaJa+ rr
6 tSa !m"c+Lon * sornp le data aruC hznLa"
donn" v aniable. Iike e-]u€Y14C,
olheY ,ran dorvu v atdoble rlnzvz
its a
wlt
YcLn
be a distrtbuborL
We caYt caletrloLa +V1r., t gn ond" b$
>rpactzttl,on ar-cL v
e-verfl o+hn y Y:otndorvt, va.vdoble

^Yt
fr:
-ffp'
a tuoe ol 6,,

iH"ilI'#'
ut^f
5L1*
^tndaxact b,{ ffi" a:; ff:^
(tn"ts ftg irnyorLar* 8g t^}s wiLL touc
f
a e_equ?y\re .^,.. or dtstribL,r.hozr und' orLo
;;v +@ cnt\,ve.rgeALe
' 3n1t^',$j;_.^ ##",
rtust kYrorro vuhA+

A AvroL potnf to ,tOVe iS +^L tevrn;ndwn+ used . An osllrn6f,a*

ouP'd
*'l*truruf :J-,-qff i?" E % *I#tr",Y'
+hs
Aru gsbmfr,e iS deke:<vnirustrc rt[m?,P(r'c,aj, vo).r,te. +1,1al, ,* Yv
is .irnto il\t
4"; c6;;el\eA" dato. p\^Wd" e$hmofut,{rlruc+to,ra
^L;
-[.,r^r fo- A pavSoru h^-a{ c-otLecf ionna data
arn d
$}^d
{|ne zsttnT-ctt?P
3Gcrl). borvte dz"to. -t*,
,[ t*g) to be P_.*o?. Tty 4ne
#,\A o>t-g;cl SeYw?- .u>tfrarrimev*' , ililA L+ iw +iln exA'ct $am.e, J"*Lo,
X 'sc{ rr becaua". is itsaLf a, in
tr 1^a cl'tflerc.nt
,?r:?u- JXn
vardabtes o.nd diflarer"t Samgtat &te bourr-d. to tr*
"o,ido* . These valux attd the es{unutes q\
dljlqrer4] valleg W \,
 4,7
V ?arametw Eshmahon- : So,re baric de{tnittoax I
. CoNsisteNCy t Arn- es+trnatolc 6n oj V is vrreakQ (*p.stron6{r61 c,orestste/il-
t
a^
F(rup
n+@
a,s)
g (*r Fn)

vtsua\ if rike gufpoee r,rp horr€ a {txed, parametrr+

I (Oefcxwrinl"ltc)

Dr'strtbl^Hovr o{- d, qa t! keeyz 6T\ iq tvxnrt tntr-

g9 e e
-tl^ab S, r*i.tL ataiw 6., eL,6.xnrurus+tc,valrc atn+@
--+ ry\' LwcYre'at't'g indr c'attn1
NoRt'aaLtTY
a
{svmetoTtc
tr"e w ord asymgtottc
\dluevr,euev
is used \^le "efe, *o w
6o',7{r 'n{,db
{p asttrwotorc 9n + 9is *rFt' HcaL! nsrrY't"J" tf'

)i ru, r')
(d)
-m t&^ - s) rL-+ @

\^fl^"o**his rne.ons ivr &ry mavr teyn^s is +"r Ioltge ra rzalue-r

+t* probab,ttites {* yarud.snrr vaxiqble Jh (dn^ - e) sl,usul& be-
$w4e, ar tt'"at
d a, A-al,t,talal^, wtttL 'ffr€.olr= o arnd' va.niuqncz,= fL
NoLe +l^Nt *he e.LJ. e,vasuyr,s ttuat i+ nr+, ircrke 6n +o be tha sarnpte
Meo.yr o:t gvogertt6 os6rnptottc nornoot% tzvt,(I be, satri'froa a"t
ta$O warn;b *h.rs
2[
v!- oru -rnirnl r,ularctr, vnaty&.
propE rnor4s estryra--or"tays
relevanl -f,or us lput nJt nec.** be *he sample yn eBn.
. BrAg OF AN ESTIMATOB/ "frly
d[scussed,
r^re eo,x\rearr, &" ts,ilset( a- 'rrandom varctirlote . So hse con,
{s
an
,^[tr"*t l.uxitahot ]-,ake, i,]g al/cpecbaHwn" Iv'tedafrni*tot ri,t
b[nrt6"l = E[6,] -s
Voe wttl *% e, ie urntoatsed' tf b*as(0n ) = o

or eluivaterittS E[6rl = g/
q ws see {."^4. tt^R, . Ln?r,ot thu rneo'n^ {a h}e
por,nt o}
freir,ternttst Yd*
+he eshvn,ote',t,' %
taxe m^ry *ont s o-prbs on d cqlxutdl *.tV
.irt ihe dabq irt6 6, , Oru a\€yo48 lhrs value shou[d ba fuat {o
)rh,e ,lrue, parame-tor U it +,he, uslim q+p,i. is' unfuised,.
 4,4
V rcg oqkltlaho4lna biqE
Qi*t Xr, XrrXs -- - Xra, S 9zrtp) '(Vre +tueVavametex 9=P hcre
{tso \dCL exputatton is a lineqr rye*aG,f
0p^ = xn

= nrgxi
n
Xn Xr+ Xr+ Xg + - *-.Xn
l=t Yl

E [X"l = E I x,* Xr* f,3+ -'- Xn] I E [xrf+ E[xrf + --.' Etx"l = DP = p
YL rLn
E [&1 - p -- o h"nce unbaised

@P^= x (A il =
vL-
Xr*Xr
2-
E[x,l = p E Xt* Xr = I r[*,1 + -!e t Xz.1 w,*
Etxrl-p=o r-urubaised z I P

E I x,t xrl
LzJ P -O henee unbru.oed.

@ ln J1(Xr=1,X"=1)
Be$re saLvinX thig prob\e.nr" telS r.ecq,U, ufi,^t 1(A) m@v1a
n" ig the ts\d'tzqtrr varLtqbte . Tt taKe,s vaLqes o cuacl t
W,/ rtd t// # / d's/ f/,f;fiVd{drt
I+ *akeS Valu€, I r^r{tan, euen# A oearJ<,L qnd Zero AI*'U vot're'
6 -the e-xpectaUovt o[ Jl. rnre oflgt1 Pw'r.^LL^' a[ zxpzc-]akon'
Jrrtd,
E[n(A)l = !* P(4oLt;u]tL) + O;t-P(4d"e(^rhout"'rc)
ts also a$ fl, +clk4a *rH o v o$,u,s
fo E [-t(e ) ]
= P(e) rolrucl'r' ryol't' P
and coru be +l^6t/.#^t qa barwLP)
5fovo ,noYe -11 +rrkes value o 6Y I t* eac.}w ovrt<.ame of n
$L a\so {okst va\'"r'e 1 o or
9o olo es X-+
9,o dou !* or 1l
{ertee =- Il&\)z = KA)a =-.- - tfCrl
Jf(A)
po tnle C,qvu nrtf o
fn= 1' (A,) = JIt+,) Wttetg A tf {rue <-lre,n"t Xt= t n Xz =1

Etp,l = ELttell = f(a) =F[x,=tanaXr=t)= 2-

(u
-torxe
Xr, Xr
P inauT"J )
S, bro* tfl"l ?' - ? +\evtoe t(s biased esttrqa.br
 4.5
P Xbns en's truelrari*gr-
If * ho.re a. cernvex functon $,-l -l'tne.T

eonv<ar {(.)
Tf Ne h-cw a c,$nca\re,
fun.lton fC., *hen

csnczive!(-)

f"r q. {tx ) = r/i ,ts drcuen Ag

x
Its 4. conca.\re
{o^.U-,

{ -^ zs*i"nttw :
Some {*rnulqs
> Varua-vLes
ge&"e revten: scnne
s*ort calcula*tng varriance lefs previcms sfu+t
^)e
Let *he,r^e lce Yarrclorn rza.xrabtes X,
b Y,Z
+hatore rndependent +
eoch c,they. Tneg ore nof necessorl\ idenhcal$r d^fEhib'uteel . (Bul rnaypa)

Vsr (X + Y+ Z) = Vox(x) *VarttY) +Var(Z) +2.bv tx,v)+z0ov[Y,z)+2Cv[x,z)

W+uri, Y, Y , Z &ne tro[ependevrt traurfuafq )

(x,Y) = Cov I'v,21 = 0w (x,Z) = O

Cov

So t" Z irn"depend"ent vo'$tr-q'bLel X 'Y' L

Vagr Lr+Y+z) = Vaxtx) +
Vart(Y)+Var[zJ

finniuou4 r^It, r-arrr rytel^d *l,rjs {-. vv indepen dent varu'abtor

Vax IXr* yr+ Xr+. ---.Xn) =
y61(Kt) t Varr [xz) rVartCXg) Vax(xn)

Another usetu\ proper*y is Buppose {here ts a T.vo X

t-& Y - o.X+b
{n"w Vo:,u(Y) = AL \/arr(X) ie scatir,rl {*- q ts sguare
s.htF +".t t b eloes ;"F.^$ffi
 4.6
tr1A.viortce, $an estrma*rr :,Soqe exarnptetr
A
t R=Xn =
Xr*Xr- + --.-.-Xn
n
Vox(G) = Vorr ..\ Va:c(xt +Xe.+ X5 -*Xn )
)
6z-

I
4 Vot(xr 1 a Vart(xr;' " "Va:t(xn) #z
-€
6L
4 = P(t-p)
Surrx,l h

A
Xl
?'
Var [xt) P(r-P)
tud

X t , X: ,Xt . --Xn *bev L?)

o fln= Xt+ X1
n
E[xi]= p {i
E(.

Xr*Xr Y61fxi] = P0- P) V i

Vorc ( =) VaY
fn )
t )?-
(neprcp<:\"1 indep*)
) I[v*,(x,)* var (xz)] tmpfiae Cov(XtrKi)= 0
1" ' ft,.i+j
) 3, yal[xt) p (r- p)
4 '/'

@ Dlh 1(X,=1,Xr=L)
LJE krow 111 =- ll
pn z 1l (x,--1, YI -!) = Ber (Pt)

Valt tY') Vax t arx tp,) ) P,

(I - P")
 4,7
P Qur"qdra*Lc R{sk
Btos :^ es{mahr I {.s tu w\easurte a+ ho,nr -frr, *tU 0n l>e- {.rom il,ta 4rg1u
"1
Fro,rneter trv ereEdng o\Aer mullcple, Somp te.r .

Varrjg,nce re-b|fu t-lhe spv.,aad.

**" distrUxrtron "$ 6^
6* o\n es+tmatot lp be. qood. rale y.rt.d-the bjos -to be ZLT> ay\A"n<,neoA
MWWI- *+^L vaqraruce J, E o-s smoJl 0,6 pat.Ldq, so ^r<.- el€"tr *J * r1-u^)
bLyry", A c,oryilatnatco"r 4 h* ahJL vtaLor\,@.

-1nr.
luadvattc
risk { arr es{cmatorc A^ e K is

Lr.6 dD o. .l.t$te *trxat<rnX {D rrc,rnsrite #"e firrvu;Ja abovf.

EI td,-of] = E [t6, - Etd^l + rfs,,r - r)"]

Now note +l^o* g tfi t {s <,xtecfatrtrn o} somettun2 .so ik a c,orrstan# de[crtninis{ic
ccnrrstanl . So E(gt$^l)
= g[6n] .Nowvte c,sn*tn-ue
= rI ae, -E[4])'* (ri6,l -*)'+ 2(6,-E[d,1) (egri^t-e)l
+ha* g is a delzqn^"iniskc numbex. {e true porarnetq4
ruoj/e
gf6rf - g is hence s. c,snstant Lefs caIL t+ co
E I t,t^ - Erd,l)' * d
+ z(d"-rt6,r)cJ
r [t$^-6rd, 1f1 + E[."'] + 2E [."(dn-ec6":)]
E, R$^ - u rd^:),J + coL + 2u [r td"t - E Le Ld^r ] )
1
t r
1;,;t by d4, ^ q tzaxiance o
tS llne vorqr-ance g; L

+ (efS,t -u), k:tor-g -

=
9o
euadvahcrisV = Vavc6d,) + (an*t&^l)"
+o do elf +J'fiu'!
llcnce+o lft^e luadrade vtsk hle eJo nI 'lze| -+l^s'l-
iolr,rt6dtorrl . Tust .l^d vouia:ncs & Wa*L , fidd
 4,6
p Exe-redse on- uru&ncrn dtstributtcn
Xrr Xr, Xg - -. - ..Xn I$
,1'| (
[a, a.+1])
It X[ n, tt( [^, a+ll)
E[xi]= o-+q+l = sL+L/z
I"
Vox[x;l
= (sH)
12
=L
lz

(a) r [x"l
n

EtAl = hn1E[x' *X2+x3t '--'xn] = nElxr]= a+!'7,

tb) lE Xn - l1y on uhbarsed es{tmatore {ort a ?"

-[vt"
bras & zeylc +fence x^ -l/1 is aru un]caised €:tirn"t{- t}o

(c) vrudonre { I h -Uz

\frr((% -ttz) \d,r ( n) ar?r*
#
VAr(Xtxr+- *yn)
4a
nVa,tt(Xr) I *rl
n2- 4 12n -fu

(cL) QuDrr.hc €aU -

qu6d ndic Rtst Edorz + Uarttance

=0
L z+ (i)
1

12n
 4,1
tr Conflo\ ence Intcvvals
We hore, decrded o,$c stqks+dcolrnodeL 61,s (E,(E)s€O)
{nd v.re h-ow yr observakocs Xt, &,XB . "... ..Xn
NO6r hre tr"tro eluce 6- rnet^r c,arrcspf
4 *tae"ce ,i,,rierval (o,()
Yt'rst t,r.re choose cr ^urnpey d- b<,tr:eeya o to1 {e o( e
Wt-ttu the tr:F o.l aU -rdrue obse.rvadarr d.ata te vr. potnt u^e hlctt ,aofus or/\,
rrntezva,l :6 Ne ,"!ttl +alE abcrr"& ffie pra#alr/.:+1h +1,1"ah V eJ.,- N61t -thak
thr's tvtteyvaU rxLL be rnode such -thot- tt drrs" nrf depend on y ilsetf

P, tS = el ZL-d, + e€ o
- lws m adl t^ data pouT h Kt,Xe ' -' -'xv1

{*e 4uxr,a-irn,otoqq
t
n Su& th"ftt !' is colled tlr-e cnrn-fr'dun"e it''L*vvJ
ol^- feveL t- J
Wa wovut/choose d' l,be loul 'like 'o5 'Eo !-x=oQ5
jhis ev.rahLesus tp suY that -tl^e true pa'vavnel'er s h..x iw*he ti'whevvil"
t}r'aru qf 7" -t[er'r'ce -)' '{8 a conJttlence
-i.
P -u3tttL p,rdbab.t.tt{
L ErenLev
to'45. we won't g {D i'vuC wtttr, t'u?'l^ probataUr*p
'Qie
twtevval d -QeveL

S{ote, *tnohvue at^e catulahyrq Wo%diai1ifie,s . And br4 +^nd h}e nvttl *ake
tna h,etp a ddstrbuhort , r,^:fr,[ch nritl he olfe-tr-+lre -l':btbLtkrr't' * *t
d'gsgn
"?dy^fur talur 0n Nm il( 1oL \?-Le.AoYtt- tLat roe kno,nc 11,r-s
diskf buH,ovu d evevq esttw\shrr \de kvT ony 3.i *lu'ngs oLr^e
wwtch'

vy o^ce ;.* 9o b Asyml.otd'ic lernets " (o vnre d*b

L.a "l ".g*gtfu"c
l-ewl t-'t {or Y
ronderrm {rrtevvql C h}hose Lcounclartes eloes nnok .\epend snI st,
+t
.lrwv
Y1+0C
Prtf 3Y] l1-oc ,{ oe

Le*< 'tzc,alL \^t{4^ob we e!ad.,

ofttzr )' ar O orcrorAin2- to
\I) we had n obsevvattotr RrrRe 'Rs--"'Rn hIl4th vie-v|-
+t^e ttti {-
+fe h.exd'
lo\ tnl+ rggu\l( 'prc a vaaflom
b00 Vart1'a6o l hrle @hz t"itluoqL
lucsdorr,
mdul,
t-' \,g.i,r€-ru
'*Bg a iitYnortti +e Rf n' betLP ndu\"'
0'A
IDa co'vt '*rtiLc l?w sbdtstLc'$L

( to.,rl, ( r"'tr))r * ro,,l)

 4.10
lV> Trr-e true pavametex g here ts p o.n4Lr,.re voqrtte,&$ tsttnraka ik , f,rul./r'u
elato . so tase rnoke

i
In =P" = {nt
A
tl U:l
eap 6relr p J erltnnatot [s a -$uc{c-, datn te
imnlios [G on ?tnjs b o.
& , Rr. -- - -.Rn
*
es+innat r{p c6ty1rn67t used
rrLation {ort {rso i*s a c,ornpinati"r. d taYtdar,,u
dample rnean varriobte ao i* is rtsetf o' Yqndtrntu
vaniable \^xil" a drlstributtozt

la) -xrow *o ca\aulah, pobab+Lt+ter {ot R" r^}e vnus} knovnl t.ue d,ratrttar"t+tor" o}
E, , for o. {tnite rL the distrtbwtCo'r t} R'r wtlt depend s71 horo Ri/s are
cttstributed andlindinT t+ ts o- rtXoro,r.s Pyl,c?/t9 +{or,.rewv -fox ra, +@ h}e
hone a veyg epecia\ resuJ.* ralled Cevd;rar Undt fr'eorerw f, *" ryecio&
Tondom vartr'oble SOrn'Ple wgnn 3-n

J[
E,^
#
4 , (d) > ,r) to, r)
{ n+6

E[<i]
\en 1.= = P

62 -- Vot [ei ] = p (t-P)

h, Wc Le^b^!' ,Urr,tih lite'orc*''v tru tus ca're L"'o'nt* l+d<!L\t"*

r-rr Rn P ,-(d)
n-+@
, ito,,;
p(t- p)

teL atlahvt6 probablfHel .fox, the

c
te rand.onru vailo}lte
{o
rnffi
Rn-P r"E eltrrvolent col"t-uLahp ywb"t +Uh*r fu,,o\o"aox& r,arrwaL.T

ffi assurYle y1,+@ (ie a>gmpdtc)

l5) {* +h"
Nouo t
gec+tnn' 't61l"hx'
'
olt a per theo\ef1tton" + can$iCence twtervaL 4 ferreL t-
x
8o f.*t ct+-
of.,"* il"1 -

* ;; thqt
Yotcauu+1

t.B tne cAAs +thevt 'ttus pvobo*i$Ey is L- a- to .ftna thti wt do

{*
eee.
t'.l- +nd' {lae f,t'*<-1 YrobNbtUY
 4, Ll

ls) Ftte,-pl>x) =ffi d'.

sec +he L,H,s

vejlg
/irsf
f (le;-pl>,>+) = F t-c lR"- Pl 7t zr-1 =- r h" &:q- *tn 1

tf*,'-' ffil
U Ip'-'l1r \, t
-lptt-p) |
-l

Now -m F.' p, ^ N(ort) ie pdandoxd norTaot'{' (d'endtd oA*)

tt- p)
p So {he u,H.S is e'tqivaleY\* fu
r)
\de cl'ye. iwl.eresLed iwthe
P(tz\>,4;
Jfft-o
shaded are& he,Y€,

-xt-n o et-m ,N(o,t;

J-pcr-pl Jffi

J-ne ghaded &req ls (r-a(ffi) )*" xii"

Dtus ar^ea here J ptrlt
is O fr.fi \
'trFGFl/

ly7 So r,.x, haw esto.bltsheA

F(rn^-pr >,x) = a(t-8ffi) ) {." o"{no'J q,ronHte

x€(o,t) fne quan*ite rl
Now \^).e, n^o!^c +o +he RH9 r,tvhjch i g E? d,'
<rrdet t-( d.r.v X is a.
or'dg ItumbeY s*
91uattry Poth ,|qo;r) +
! 1 F[xri")=1-x
a(r-otffi,) ) =o(' Qvaphlcatty

+Otgl
[ptt- ) p J
=L-Yt c\c.,, \s \ -dt

gL +o )rfn
=) trJe carr sotve {ort 1ct"d t'c
IP(l.Pj
)Lir4. Atso note

Jf*[l = - (r - 2"'
6-' -{) = 1e,
E(xrq.)= Q(1")
urrt"ere Q(.) isthe
1.U..is c-omes laX the de{rirnr*tot* 1*b cdf of X
(r-p)
+ )l.= \qe
fi
le> Ftr*tty w{. ve'nrrite {ch e equ o''koru

,ff,J';
*5
rj;
" l*'^hs""*$J'fi*x$t*^;ffi t

f (a^-@e R" + 1YaIFGPI l- o(

\Iru J6
 4.1?.

lB> 8o $noUg hrt{hsorne *heo.ems & nnnrpulaltorns, f +und. o;r.. initB,rvoJ,

I Rn 1v,
fi
p (t- p)
, Iu + 1*b p(t -P)
JN

{I balong fu thrr 4,*e*w af

-i
tn0e ec^ylsqI -tha 'true foxarTr-otev P wt
t^rctL pvobobiti|6r L- d"

P (Pct4) =1-*
elEe,nnlsort I (ie p) so th'r'u 't,t vrohc'arrech
lrloLe{ilot the, La.t^exvo.l {, t+stl'p. \et( s'ee sorne obs<vvaton't
I^\ewtr\ *.. r-,.^ +o *otrru'{hjs p."tr"- but {rs{
s"t.ln*
p Bor,,re Obsewah$ns *g*dt^1 f,
O XtoG .tltot n is i+*et1 rrendovru iz it dqaend.s orn P'
this ir.^tervul wtll be cente'red artcruvtol x alLl,/\|Ju/'*
-F* e.aclrr Sonnfte
valrre 4 A"

(^o hltdth o,J tnfevval ir ,ftxeot

l-- c
E'' -BE3, Ien en + 1%E)
fi_m
j.ts, winlll4 4s Rn + 9*rJptL-p
- e, o 1*, p(t-p)
= 2. lyrl@
Jn fi Jt,t
te tfs ,.,rke an tr,nfeetva)u avotrnd ffi +hat p d.betongs +o

O 1", hltdJ?r I
JN
-iii, yr1e,o6a aa vu€, im1-;reoa?' 4y-e aa' 1o'[e size +h' ru<-dtt { tP,,e ir,ntelwar(
\^IttI keel olrL decreosLn{ ie h}e r,uyitt be lrnorr- rpectfl'c ohotlti *hz
irrcter+val +i^,ar b"r#3" +" '
P
1,,vts vnzows ule a-Y^e rn -the \"t lr^t"
JtXs + eolvu the p*b)em- q fi depend.irV on P
ryts proceed
 4,13

\Ne AsrD enrctier ho^c p a:( hrtll'! proloablt\ I- o( . f- t+gerf can'tain€,& p oa q.,
-tra,tevva[
Jaclox (i,.t {orrrn "t ^IpnT) 1we ear{-tdence ahouLd voV dc.pen-dcrr,p.Bo nre
rnoYe {ovn:avd to yeryroye ju'g or*o sotvre+tais prololern .

Be"{o* hle m6v€ ou, to ecr.clt o}. +tn. method it ts a g-ood r"dea to get
\zel sf,rn
+V," eon$.dence iwlervaL d " roifl, some nuynbers. fox .ttuis t.rc tirttt
+hr,
"* excmple .l:E ""1*
hL. tolt each case o{ con,ftderoce ivttevval caLcutal*on rccoll theJ.o*a,
we l"lact * = 12.4 observaUona + Ri t Bern ( p)
p toosthe *rue pavavnekv.,thot nre worttedtp esbrvrabe
Rl = * was o pvrefevrable choice s{ -th,s estry,.r,a,bor
f,Rr.
fll]ten deta r,^sqs c-ol.tecbed it wos {ound Go *t t 24 {rrrr,-sd 'tlaeiv inp(Afu rqW
W
bo ihe zsltmocrp. {or, #nJ" pot}io.tlan }ampte is En BO
+
= = . 45 or €.4.5 7.t24
Wa -lo clryab?, a ca,lFdencz trrteruval
r,'routd word
leval .e5 = l_ o(
or eluivarerrte\ a u.autd. rke\ fu 60+ ahat#at { + o( _ . 05
? ef., c€itta qs y" vr.,r*.urn
4fnt"f w=14 r ltr€ hrt[ Q*wne,-thatr tt3 ht **fl" *u maoke or ar,1^prd.z c.tr.
t}l lt^e exprzssioru thal hle calorLaLed. front *u*t ertLitx hse woul^d. r,r.eercl,
{he 1.S : ]. ozs
& qwbe.
+ q^L trt+W toh[e,E e,r *syr'e s o\.U,oave .t.rru t*rd ittu ba ,

lvt cuvnYnaYy : Fu<. {loe kdgc exawrple

n=124 , p =Rn =lAl,=,*i A
, P=' 64 5 q6
la
Q,or-E
\'1 = 1x =1
lrorn{he sampa
J
rlsavvafr ow E"ul'd,
0 Co

Lels d^ro.tr ={(P) = ptr-P)

.y
f* p e(o,t)
I ?
'!nis rs o- {ur,c*ton' tha} o th
valrue V+
*ake,s tlte-'vnarimlvl't {
ok P=Vz
V
A{u^iUordt targ calt oJrotnc
rt-p) ---Y =L/z
) -- ftr' = p

thls {{$c*urn o[s o tduorcg

a artnr-iUAc{ ett9cVO
7+ +okl* ik wtaximum- val'rre
ob ?- V, r,,.:tnrctn is \=l/,
o
%-t r
 4,14
Trr-e goirnt n4't?t" d&cus.sioa. [s tr. J".+t*- Jp(t-p) is aturar6 *1/- { p e (o,,1)

t Rn
q v,
Jn-
JFt, _ rj ) R" + eml
_ml
Nouo .Fpl 4! a?

+ Hrp,"p) 1k + fl,*
ffi fu
1E. + AJfi'
D{vurtrotrtrl

lv,
d

Jn-
A.Jtr ln .1ln'

fr, coTn ta. r^"tn,6 *hrsu \^)e ?*t,e

Rn 1u+ lv, Jpt,+ I

dJE'
s E^ e
ln Jn drr"r.

d
?hig ts our( ).
It? e I with pmrbAbr% qS Z " *toen p will detrr*t% Uato,^6 *r oukrt ,tnLerval
*tln ? atfeart q5'/.
*leruce {h. rne\^l c"',n
f1aence i,-te.r<vaL
arj
-Lcovrs
13

-?I c"orts (, 1q, , R; + :_y, l

z-F 2trJ
{*r,, eloag y;ef depend cm
?
& E(PGfo-*) > 95

@ Rn
ery-tn
,L\5
t4, '+t^a valles
Jt= E4 = lt.tgr .ozo
1
= 1.16
n l(Eg
} C'YL
[,rre , ,lzzf
t ,5e , .721
 It.l5
Solvtn4 Quadvattc erya\tow
T
,bo b6 the dey ca ol. lewt 1-D( hod
+ t,ue

F ( tE-, -?t 4 1% m, ) = l-c(

tJ we look at {he aganeAfot

|R, -pl z- 9q/" ffi) this is avt

"t*"I'U(
th.rB woll be sotnevalr^a 4? {hak NtO
r+ntatt
la,fi,
tl nre stt{r€ uoth" >ider to {nd
2-
2- , a[2* b[ + c
Qn -pl $tpl
tH,{P,'r,]
2-
zo
(p - Rn;' - t?
la
p (r-p)

pr+?.i -zyRn - futp-p') 40 F

rt R ?t
-K","
?'L' + fr" -PI 2a + th"l * ( o
n, 1 7J
{nis is o. 1*ad.va*i.
(.
\ * V* Ltl"l1*atl*'1 4F^)
"4"
?
7-
+ b1 + c -<0

r^rhere L r- 2-{
ow"\ c--*
a" l+ \*t, [= - L'1& + nl
n
shonr"t irru tha
a\? I a/\d p- *t+e, {no rort( ',osu,y
,)fme ,ov$, cort be {oun d 9ri )lrnv achttS^ y"u'lb
t'4v" cr"
-b * bL - Aac Ttru iwtarval I p, , ?rlv.illbe 41.',e
?,, I,-=
Zo-

Lrrss,{
t (n=.6q5 1'r"u- J.1( w=lt\
A = l+ U,qe)L = L,oZ
tz+
b + - L,ZZ
[*r..ns H?']
- 4L&
= l.L+SSL
C
(w" cluahm bec.omet 1,oB p2- -L,vt-7 + '4Lfi 1o pt= . SB
d P, = '7S
Wva t 'Ey r.J5 I
 4.16

@o\tu
Look eoraetult/ of *he erlument below s*ep by step
Contnuotts (Y"rr
tfr p {,, ,k tlne ctrnatort *hat rnre s*qrbed
"

hsi+h , i*s the sarnP\e rnedr'l Qiwru:

'frnl e.s/P/ td) - r
tfr: LLN S+o&e for sowtple ntean 'L h-+ac

R'"
ff;?f *pi.+as[x]=t 1$ ft.: '(g c <nr,tinuoru
fli) qA -[o'c ftctl = fxcl]f) f<rnctiovr-
con{irusus rr1aflS^X thesrem *ella (d)
P's/F /
t-
I Rn(t-Rn)
E/a,s
n'+@
p (t-p) .
1r
JpEir {(r")
\ h+6
r {t)
Jp(t- p)
p(t-.e)
StuIsLy rs Seorern
0rr t,rl€, ean, d.r,aectty eoly- +t^t" $* I c>c) = Jprl-6
x([-x) Qirnenttnoo seluencer

P(t-P) Y la.g T T (d
y\-+@
T
n+6
G(r-il) U" -€--, ,1"

Ntouc r^!e ho.rne {o use dUBq'^

4hesrct1 n ->oJ
T& oyandsrn vaxJalole
fi(A:I.) *t{_* g Z -ito,t) u, rs a' defa$nints+ic Y1"o'
p (t -p) n+o
the by Slakky t
*T stukk/ -liU,^,T$'-t
*Elas , 1
p,, (r-8") h-)o

Jh (R^- f ) p(t -p) ,-(d) > N(o,r)

n+@
Pil -F) gn 1t -R-h )

)
t* ule, ,D-lotne Jh
( E^

fl. (t-[n)
P tar
v1.-+@
-il,u,,

\^le Lou1, eqtrutote att {^e prexl"us +luinle {rDiY thiA

f,fu" t E' W,
In'
Ftr -01
1 ,
R; + 1ot,
s
$ (r -?)
1

@ I
Jplu3in f o.oa , o.Y3l