Hà Minh Khoa – ITITIU19020

Homework week 2 - Probability – Sem 1 – 2021-2022

1. A credit card contains 16 digits between 0 and 9. However, only 100 million numbers are
valid. If a number is entered randomly, what is the probability that it is a valid number?

Answer:
16
Total possible numbers with 16 digits: 10 numbers
8
Total valid numbers: 10 numbers

108 1
16
 8
Probability to get an randomly entered number to be valid: 10 10

2. A message can follow different paths through servers on a network. The sender’s message
can go to one of five serversfor the first step; each of them can send to five servers at the
second step; each of those can send to four servers at the third step; and then the message goes
to the recipient’s server.
(a) How many paths are possible?
(b) If all paths are equally likely, what is the probability that a message passes through the first
of four servers at the third step?

Answer:
(a) The numbers of possible paths: 5x5x4 = 100 paths
(b) Since we are just considering in the 3rd step of the path to go through the 1st of 4 servers
then we can the path through 1st and 2nd step can be random but there is only 1 solution to
choose the path when it comes to 3rd step. Therefore, numbers of possible paths that
satisfy the question: 5x5x1 = 20
20 1

Probablity to get the desire paths: P = 100 4

3. Samples of emissions from three suppliers are classified for conformance to airquality
specifications. The results from 100 samples are summarized as follows:
Let A denote the event that a sample is from supplier 1, and let B denote the event that a
sample conforms to specifications. If a sample is selected at random, determine the following
probabilities:
(a) P(A)
(b) P(B)
(c) P(A')
(d) P(AB)
(e) (e) P(AB)
(f) P(A’B)

Answer:
(a) P(A)
22  8 3
P ( A)    0.3
100 10

(b) P(B)
22  25  30 77
P( B)    0.77
100 100

(c) P(A')
P( A ')  1  P( A)  1  0.3  0.7

(d) P(AB)
22
P( A  B)   0.22
100

(e) (e) P(AB)

22  25  30  8 85
P ( A  B)    0.85
100 100

(f) P(A’B)
 25  30  5  10  22 92
P ( A ' B )    0.92
100 100

4. If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events with P(A) =0.2, P(B) =0.3, and P(C) =0.4,
determine the following probabilities:
(a) P(A  B C)
(b) P(A  B  C)
(c) P(A  B)
(d) P[(A B) C]
(e) P(A  B C)

Answer:
(a) P(A  B C)
P( A  B  C )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P (C )  0.2  0.3  0.4  0.9 (since A, B and C are mutually
exclusive events)

(b) P(A  B  C)
P ( A  B  C )  0 since since A, B and C are mutually exclusive events, A  B  C  0

(c) P(A  B)
P ( A  B )  0 since since A and B are mutually exclusive events, A  B  0

(d) P[(A B) C]

P  A  B   C   0  A  B  C   A  C    B  C   0
since

(e) P(A  B C)

P  A ' B ' C '   1   P( A)  P( B)  P(C )   1   0.2  0.3  0.4   0.1

5. Consider the hospital emergency room data given below. Let A denote the event that a visit
is to hospital 4, and let B denote the event that a visit results in LWBS (at any hospital).
Use the addition rules to calculate the following probabilities.
(a) P(A  B)
(b) P(A  B)
(c) P(A  B)

Answer:
We have:
4329
P ( A)   0.1945
22252
953
P( B)   0.0428
22252
242
P( A  B)   0.0108
22252
984  3103
P ( A  B ')   0.1836
22252

(a) P(A  B)
P( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )  0.1945  0.0428  0.0108  0.2264

(b) P(A  B)

P( A  B ')  P ( A)  P ( B ')  P ( A  B ')  0.1945  (1  0.0428)  0.1836  0.9680

(c) P(A  B)

P( A ' B ')  1  P( A  B)  1  0.0108  0.9891
6. The analysis of results from a leaf transmutation experiment (turning a leaf into a petal) is
summarized by type of transformation completed:

(a) If a leaf completes the color transformation, what is the probability that it will
complete the textural transformation?
(b) If a leaf does not complete the textural transformation, what is the probability it will
complete the color transformation?

Answer:
From the analysis above we have the total number of experiment = 300
(a) If a leaf completes the color transformation, what is the probability that it will complete
the textural transformation?
243
P( A  B) 243
P( B | A)   300   0.9033
P( A) 243  26 243  26
300

(b) If a leaf does not complete the textural transformation, what is the probability it will
complete the color transformation?
26
P ( A  B ') 26
P ( A | B ')   300   0.5909
P ( B ') 18  26 18  26
300

7. The probability is 1% that an electrical connector that is kept dry fails during the warranty
period. If the connector is ever wet, the probability of a failure during the warranty period is
5%. If 90% of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet, what proportion of connectors fail
during the warranty period? Let F denote the event that a connector fails and let W denote the
event that a connector is wet

Answer:
What proportion of connectors fail during the warranty period?
We have:
 P (W ' F )  0.01
P (W  F )  0.05
P (W ')  0.9
P (W )  0.1
P ( F )  P (W ' F )P(W ')  P (W  F )P(W )  0.010.9  0.050.1  0.014

8. A lot of 100 semiconductor chips contains 20 that are defective.

(a) Two are selected, at random, without replacement, from the lot. Determine the probability
that the second chip selected is defective.
(b) Three are selected, at random, without replacement, from the lot. Determine the probability
that all are defective.

Answer:
(a) Two are selected, at random, without replacement, from the lot. Determine the
probability that the second chip selected is defective.

 19   20   20  80 
P ( B )  P ( B | A)  P( A)  P ( B | A ') P ( A ')           0.2
 99   100   99  100 

(b) Three are selected, at random, without replacement, from the lot. Determine the
probability that all are defective.
Let C denote the event that the third chip selected is defective
18 19 20
P  A  B  C   P  C | A  B   P  A  B   P  C | A  B   P  B | A  P  A     0.00705
98 99 100

9. If P(A | B)=0.3, P(B)=0.8, and P(A)=0.3, are the events B and the complement of A
independent?

Answer:

P  A '  1  P  A   0.7
P  A ' | B   1  P  A | B   0.7

Therefore, the events B and the complement of A are independent.

10. A batch of 500 containers of frozen orange juice contains 5 that are defective. Two are
selected, at random, without replacement, from the batch. Let A and B denote the events that
the first and second containers selected are defective, respectively.
(a) Are A and B independent events?
(b) If the sampling were done with replacement, would A and B be independent?

Answer:
(a) Are A and B independent events?
4
P ( B | A) 
499
 4   5   5   495  5
P ( B )  P( B | A)  P( A)  P( B | A ')  P( A ')      
 499   500   499   500  500
Therefore, A and B are NOT independent events
(b) If the sampling were done with replacement, would A and B be independent?
Yes, A and B events are independent in this case

11. The research “Clinical and Radiographic Outcomes of Four Different Treatment Strategies
in Patients with Early Rheumatoid Arthritis,” considered four treatment groups. The groups
consisted of patients with different drug therapies (such as prednisone and infliximab):
sequential monotherapy (group 1), step-up combination therapy (group 2), initial combination
therapy (group 3), or initial combination therapy with infliximab (group 4). Radiographs of
hands and feet were used to evaluate disease progression. The number of patients without
progression of joint damage was 76 of 114 patients (67%), 82 of 112 patients (73%), 104 of
120 patients (87%), and 113 of 121 patients (93%) in groups 1–4, respectively. Suppose that a
patient is selected randomly. Let A denote the event that the patient is in group 1, and let B
denote the event that there is no progression. Determine the following probabilities:
(a) P (B)
(b) P (B | A)
(c) P (A | B)

Answer:
(a) P (B)

P ( B )  P  B | G1  P  G1  P  B | G 2   P  G 2   P  B | G3   P  G3   P  B | G 4   P  G 4   0.802

(b) P (B | A)
P ( A  B ) 76
P  B | A    0.667
P ( A) 114

(c) P (A | B)
 P ( B | A)  P( A) 0.667  0.244
P  A | B    0.203
P  B | G1  P  G1  P  B | G 2   P  G 2   P  B | G3  P  G3  P  B | G 4   P  G 4  0.802