CHP 4 - Finance in Planning - Decision Making (SBL Notes by Sir Hasan Dossani)
CHP 4 - Finance in Planning - Decision Making (SBL Notes by Sir Hasan Dossani)
Chapter 4
Finance in Planning & Decision Making
Funding Strategies
Funding strategies may vary from business to business. BCG Matrix can be used to decide the funding strategy
for each business unit within the group (Star, Cash Cow, Dog, Question Mark). Cash flow projections are
prepared to see whether there is a funding deficit or surplus:
▪ Equity financing:
o Cost linked with profitability
o Dilutes existing shareholding pattern
o Outside shareholders / institutional investor involvement
▪ Business risk vs financing risks
Business risk: the chances that business will not make profit
Financing risk: chances that business will have to pay interest on borrowed funds, despite the
fact that it is in a loss (e.g. debentures)
When business risk is high, financing risk should be kept low (e.g. by taking equity financing and
not debentures / loans)
Current roles for finance function (and accountants) focus more on:
▪ Support in strategic management, i.e. analyzing options, implementing and monitoring of strategies
▪ Providing in-depth analysis to business
▪ Long term business planning and scenario building
▪ Support complex decision making
▪ Performance measurement of the organization
▪ Finding areas of cost efficiency
▪ Funding sources & working capital management
▪ Managing financial risks
▪ Legal compliance
▪ Accounting and reporting
Outsourcing
Non-core tasks can be outsourced to a specialist vendor to avail economies of scale and cost savings. Common
tasks include invoicing, payment processing, bookkeeping, payroll, collections, etc. Harmon’s Process Strategy
Matric can be used in deciding which tasks can be outsourced.
Ratio Analysis
Ratio analysis is used for comparison, analysis and performance measurement purposes. Limitations of ratio
analysis includes:
▪ Non-availability of comparable information
▪ Difference in accounting policies
▪ Lack of standard formula
Efficiency Ratio
▪ Revenue per employees
Payback Period
Determines the time (e.g. number of years) the company can recover its initial investment in the project. This
method is based on the cash flows. The lower the payback period, the better
Advantage:
▪ Easy to calculate and understand
▪ Emphasis on cash liquidity of a project, I.e. earlier the recovery of initial investment, the better
▪ Can be used for preliminary screening of options
Disadvantage:
▪ Ignores cash flows after the payback period (i.e. ignores the profitability of the project
▪ Ignores the amounts involved and only focuses on the time period (years)
▪ Ignores inflation aspects
Advantage:
▪ Easy to calculate and understand
Disadvantage:
▪ Ignores the timing of cash flows
▪ Ignores the 'amount' of the return
▪ Ignores inflation aspects
Discounted Cash Flows - Net Present Value (NPV)& Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
▪ DCF 'discounts' the cash flows of the project by using an appropriate ‘hurdle rate %’
▪ Advantage:
Focuses on cash flows
Considers the time value of money, cost of funds, desired profitability and risks
▪ Disadvantage:
Difficult to ‘reliably’ estimate long-term cash inflows and outflows
Does not consider ‘qualitative’ or ‘non-quantifiable’ benefits
Difficult to calculate and understand
Say, a new product research will cost $150 M and it is expected that if the product becomes successful, the
income would be $200 M (80% chance) and if the product is not successful, then the income would $30 M (20 %
chance). Hence the expected value would be ($200 M X 80%) + ($ 30 M X 20%) = $166 M (i.e. weighted
average).
Decision Trees
Decision trees are diagrams which shows possible outcomes (probabilities) along with their monetary outcome
and Expected Values.
Fixed costs
Contribution Margin per Unit
The labour currently has some spare time available and an overseas retail chain has requested an order of
400 frames at a price of $ 15. Should the business accept the order?
Fixed costs are not affected by the choice of product. Machine time is limited to 148 hours per week.
Which combination of products should be manufactured if the business is to produce the highest profit?
Should we close Cat House department as it is incurring losses, so that our profits can increase by $ 9000?
Shareholders tend to react more on profitability rather than change in cash flows. If a decision adversely affects
current profitability it will reduce the EPS and the share prices in short term. Hence decision makers need to
consider the impact of major decisions on short term profitability / financial statements so that appropriate
disclosures could be made in the financial statements in order to give shareholders the long term perspective.
▪ The decision may move the organization into another tax bracket
▪ The decision may change organization’s eligibility of tax relieve (either favorable or unfavorable)
▪ The decision may impact the timing of tax payments as tax is based on profits and not cash
These factors become further factors for decision makers to consider over and above the simple outcomes
from relevant costing or investment appraisal analysis.
Budgetary Process
Introduction
Budgets are plans expressed in financial terms. It converts strategic plans into specific financial targets. Once
prepared, budgets should be closely monitored against actuals (i.e. variance analysis) to ensure that planned
activities actually take place. Budgets are important to control the organization as they provide a yardstick
against which actual performance is assessed.
▪ Period Budget is prepared for one year – e.g. January to December 2011
▪ Rolling Budget is budgets which is continuously updated for the next 12 months
Master Budgets
Budgets are prepared for each department and then summarized in Master Budget. Usually, Sales Budget is
prepared first and then other budgets are prepared on the basis of Sales Budget, such as production budget,
raw material / purchase budgets, cash flows, etc.
Flexed Budgets
Flexi budgets are revised budgets based on actual sales trend. In case the budgeted sales is not achieved, then
production and expenses budget are revised based on actual sales volume. This helps in analyzing the
performance of all departments in light of the lower sales
Advantages of Budgets
▪ Promotes forward thinking
▪ Helps to coordinate various functions of the Organization
▪ Having defined targets can motivate managers
▪ Control and performance measurement tool
Limitations of Budgets
▪ Unrealistic targets
▪ Short term focus
▪ May encourage Malpractice or Unethical practice
Standard Costing
Introduction
▪ Standard Costing:
Standard costing means estimating total costs based on pre-determined unit cost
▪ Variance:
Difference between total estimated costs and total actual costs
▪ Variance Analysis:
Analyzing and investigating the variances
Sales Variances
▪ Sales Price Variance:
(Actual Selling Price – Standard Selling Price) X Actual Quantity
Material Variances
▪ Material Price Variance:
(Actual Unit Cost – Standard Unit Cost) X Actual Quantity
Flexed means that the budgeted overheads are recalculated based on actual production volume and then
compared to the Actual Fixed Overheads (in order to have apple to apple comparison). Here the concept of
fixed and semi-fixed costs are considered.
Forecasting Techniques
QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES:
▪ Delphi Technique:
Panels of experts are selected and each of them produces an independent forecast. Then the forecasts
are shared and then revised forecast is produced. The process continues until they are all in agreement
with one set of forecast
▪ Executive Opinions:
Input is gathered from various high executives based on their own knowledge and then converted into
an aggregate forecast
▪ Market Research:
Involves use of customer surveys to evaluate potential demand
QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES:
X = independent variable
Y = dependent variable
The above equation is used to predict the sales value for next quarter
If correlation coefficient (and determination) is low (say <0.7), then it means that Y is not highly
dependent on X and there is a lot of seasonality factor involved in the sales trend. If correlation
coefficient (and determination) is high (say >0.7), then it means that Y is highly dependent on X and it
will be easy to predict Y based on X.
A Time Series Analysis uses moving average to define a trend. It identifies the seasonal variations from data in
order to determine the underlying / actual trend. In time series, X-axis will always represent time (e.g. years,
quarters, months, weeks, etc.). Example of Moving Average Method to remove seasonalization:
Practice Questions
P3 – Pilot Paper Q3: Forecasting | Budget (Cool Freeze)
P3 – Dec 2012 Q4: Decision Tree | Risk Management (World Engines)