CAPITOL UNIVERSITY BASIC EDUCATION DEPARTMENT

Senior High School Department

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

MODULE 2: COMPUTING PROBABILITIES

LESSON 1.2 – PROBABILITY INVOLVING A
SEQUENCE OF EVENTS & COMPOUND EVENTS

OBJECTIVE:

In this module, you will be able to:

 Determine the probability of compound events using the addition rules and
multiplication rules.

Probability Involving a Sequence of Events

Multiplication Rule of Probability: Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if the outcome of the first does not affect the
outcome of the other. In general, the probability of event A followed by another
independent event B occurring is given by

P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B).

Note that this rule may be extended for a sequence with more than two elements.

EXAMPLES:

Example 1: A coin is tossed and then a die is rolled, what is the probability of
getting a head followed by a 4?

Solution: Let A be the event of getting a head from tossing a coin and B the
event of getting a 4 from rolling a die. Then,
𝟏 𝟏
P(A) = and P(B) =
𝟐 𝟔

Thus, the probability of getting a head from tossing the coin followed by getting
a 4 in a roll of the die is

P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B)

𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
P(A∩B) = x =
𝟐 𝟔 𝟏𝟐

P(A∩B) = 0. 0833333333 or 0.0833 or 8.33%

 Example 2: A pair of dice is rolled thrice. What is the probability of getting
doubles in the three rolls?

Solution: Let A be the event of getting doubles in the first roll, B the event of
getting doubles in the second roll, and C the event of getting doubles in the
third roll. There can be six doubles in the roll of two dice: (1, 1), ( 2, 2), (3, 3), (4,
4), (5, 5), and (6, 6). This means that
𝟔 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
P(A) = = ; P(B) = ; and P(C) = .
𝟑𝟔 𝟔 𝟔 𝟔

Therefore, the probability of getting doubles in the three rolls is

P(A∩B∩C) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C)

𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
P(A∩B∩C) = x x
𝟔 𝟔 𝟔
𝟏
P(A∩B∩C) = or 0.0046296296 or 0.0046 or 0.46%
𝟐𝟏𝟔

Example 3: There are 7 green, 4 blue, and 9 red marbles in a box. A marble is
drawn at random and after recording its color, the marble is returned to the
box. Another marble is then drawn. What is the probability that both marbles
are red?

Solution: Let A be the event that the marble in the first draw is red and B the
event that the marble in the second draw is also red. Since replacement is
done, then the two events are independent. Then
𝟗 𝟗
P(A) = and P(B) = .
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎

Therefore, the probability that both marbles are red is

P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B)

𝟗 𝟗 𝟖𝟏
P(A∩B) = x =
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎 𝟒𝟎𝟎

P(A∩B) = 0.2025 or 20.25%

The multiplication rule for probability is a helpful strategy in computing probabilities.

However its utilization must be dealt with proper care. This is because, in other
sequences of events, the outcome of one does affect the outcome of another. These
events are called DEPENDENT EVENTS. An example is drawing a card from a deck of
cards and then drawing another one from the same deck without replacing the
previously chosen card.
Multiplication Rule of Probability: Dependent Events

If events A and B are dependent events such that the outcome of A affects the
outcome of B, then the probability that "event A followed by event B" happens is

P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B|A)

Where P(A) is the probability that event A happens and P(B|A) is the probability that
event B happens after A happened.

EXAMPLES:

Example 1: Josiah draws 2 cards at random from a standard deck of 52 cards

without replacement. What is the probability of getting 2 ace cards?

Solution: Since replacement is not allowed, drawing the first card will have an effect
on the outcome of drawing the second card. Thus, the events are dependent. Let A
be the event of choosing an ace on the first draw and B the event of choosing
another ace on the second. Since there are 52 cards and 4 of which are ace, then
𝟒 𝟏
P(A) = = . Because 1 ace card is already selected, there will only be 51 cards on
𝟓𝟐 𝟏𝟑
𝟑 𝟏
the second draw with 3 ace cards, hence, P(B|A) = = .
𝟓𝟏 𝟏𝟕

Therefore,
𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B|A) = x =
𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟕 𝟐𝟐𝟏

P(A∩B) = 0.0045248869 or 0.0045 or approximately 0.45%

Example 2: Gabriel has a candy box containing 9 chocolate candies and 12 lollipops.

If he chooses 2 of them at random, what is the probability that he gets 2 lollipops?

𝟏𝟐 𝟒
Solution: The probability that Gabriel gets a lollipop in the first pick is or and
𝟐𝟏 𝟕
the probability that he gets a lollipop in the second pick (after he previously gets a
𝟏𝟏
lollipop) is . Thus, the probability that Gabriel gets two lollipops is
𝟐𝟎

𝟒 𝟏𝟏 𝟒𝟒 𝟏𝟏
P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B|A) = x = =
𝟕 𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟒𝟎 𝟑𝟓

P(A∩B) = 0.3142857143 or 0.3143 or 31.43%

 Probability of Compound Events

Addition Rule for Probability: Mutually Exclusive Events

The probability of a single event that is made up of two different mutually exclusive

events is given by P(A ⋃ B) = P(A) + P(B) .

EXAMPLES:

Example 1: A card is drawn at random from a standard deck of cards. What is

the probability that the card drawn is an ace or a king?

Solution: The event "ace or king" is made up of two different events: ace and king.
The two events are mutually exclusive (with no common elements) and you are
finding the probability of their union (suggested by the preposition "or"). Let A be
the event of drawing an ace and B the event of drawing a king. Then,

𝟒 𝟏 𝟒 𝟏
P(A) = or and similarly P(B) = or since there are 4 aces and 4
𝟓𝟐 𝟏𝟑 𝟓𝟐 𝟏𝟑
kings in a standard deck of 52 cards. Thus,

𝟏 𝟏 𝟐
P(ace or king) = P(A) + P(B) = + =
𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑

P(ace or king) = 0.1538461538 or 0.1538 or 15.38%

Example 2: A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum is 5 or 6?

Solution: The event "sum of 5" is the set {(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, l)}. On the other
hand, the event "sum of 6" is the set {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}.

There are 6 x 6 = 36 elements in the sample space. Therefore,

4 5
P(sum of 5) = and P(sum of 6) = .
36 36

Thus,

4 5 9 𝟏
P( 5 or 6) = P(A) + P(B) = + = =
36 36 36 𝟒

P( 5 or 6) = 0.25 or 25%
 Like the multiplication rule, the addition rule must also be used sparingly because
there could be an event divided into two other events in which some outcomes are
common. These are called INCLUSIVE EVENTS. An example is the event "even or
multiples of 3" in a roll of a dice since there are outcomes that are both even and
multiples of 3. Logically speaking, the probability of these events is computed by
adding the individual probabilities of the two events and then subtracting the
probability of their common elements.

Addition Rule for Probability: Inclusive Events

If events A and B are given such that A and B have common outcomes, then the

probability of the event "A or B" is determined by

P(A ⋃ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

EXAMPLE:

Example 3: If a card is selected at random from a standard deck of cards, what

is the probability that the card drawn is a red card or a face card?

26
Solution: P(red card) =
52

12
P(face card) =
52

6
P(red face card) =
52

P(red or face card) = P(red card) + P(face card) – P(red face card)

26 12 6 32 𝟖
P(red or face card) = + - = =
52 52 52 52 𝟏𝟑

P(red or face card) = 0.6153846154 or 0.6154 or 61.54%