Efficiency of Public Expenditure On Education: Comparing Croatia With Other NMS
Efficiency of Public Expenditure On Education: Comparing Croatia With Other NMS
2 January 2018
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/85152/
MPRA Paper No. 85152, posted 13 Mar 2018 11:40 UTC
EFFICIENCY OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION: COMPARING
CROATIA WITH OTHER NMS
Amina Ahec Šonje, Milan Deskar-Skrbić, Velimir Šonje
Abstract
Modern economies are becoming more knowledge-intensive and service-oriented, which
makes human capital more important than ever for mid-term and long-term growth.
Therefore, education, the main channel of governments’ influence on human capital
formation, became important research subject in the field of economic growth. This paper
examines efficiency of public expenditure on secondary and tertiary education in the New
Member States (NMS) in EU; only efficient government spending can generate adequate
returns in terms of contribution to economic growth. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is
applied to assess relative technical efficiency of public expenditure on secondary and tertiary
education in NMS, with a particular focus on Croatia. Input variables are public expenditure
on education per student and as % of total education expenditure, while output variables for
secondary education are PISA results and for tertiary education share of unemployed with a
tertiary education and Shanghai ranking of leading national universities. The results show
high inefficiency of public spending on education in Croatia.
Keywords: education, technical efficiency, public expenditure on education, Data
Envelopment Analysis, New Member States EU
1 INTRODUCTION
Growing literature on efficiency of education systems identified educational attainment as a
key factor of employment and earnings [1]. Findings were in line with economic theory and
research of determinants of economic growth. This line of research pointed at education as
an important source of human capital formation and economic growth. Growth is related to
technological progress which requires more skilled and qualified labor. Investment in
education also delivers other benefits for society such as higher life expectancy for better
educated citizens and greater participation in social and civic life [2]. Also, public
expenditure on education is one of the most sizeable functional government expenditures so
it has substantial impact on allocation of resources.
Developed societies need more educated people to contribute to further technological
advancement. On the other hand, sizeable fiscal deficits and public debts call for higher fiscal
responsibility and increased efficiency of public expenditures. The policy attitudes regarding
this trade-off are different across the EU member states.
According to Eurostat public expenditure on education in EU-28 in 2015 amounted to 4.9
percentage of GDP on average, of which secondary and tertiary education accounted for 1.9
and 0.7 percentages respectively. In 2007-2015 period, government expenditure on
education as a ratio to GDP remained relatively stable at around 5.1 percent. However, the
amount of public money devoted to education differs across member states. The highest
amounts of overall public expenditure on education were reported by Iceland (7.5 percent of
GDP) and the lowest by Romania (3.1 percent of GDP). Croatia is close to EU average with
4.7 percent of GDP. Notwithstanding such differences, the question remains: how efficient is
use of these resources?
Research on educational performance is organized in two parallel streams of economic
literature. One is related to literature on endogenous economic growth. Growth theory
suggests that education is a key to sustained economic growth (e.g. [3]; [4]; [5]; etc.).
Empirical studies often provide mixed results on the influence of human capital formation on
growth (e.g. [6]; [7]). Afonso and St. Aubyn [8] found that education contributes to growth
positively, but it is not always statistically significant. However, most of cross–country
growths regressions tend to find a significant positive correlation between quantity of
schooling (measured by the average numbers of years of education) and economic growth
(e.g. [9]; [10]; [11]).
Some researchers argue that education quality is more important than quantity. Barro ([12];
[13]) and Hanushek and Kimko [14] showed that PISA international score for science, math
and reading matter more than years of schooling for economic growth. In his recent work,
Trabelsi [15] examined the existence of a quality education threshold effect on the
relationship between public expenditure on education and economic growth. His results
imply that public expenditures promote growth only after quality of education exceeds a
certain threshold.
Another stream of literature is focused on direct measurement of educational efficiency. The
‘efficiency literature’ examines the transformation of various inputs (e.g. student-related,
family-related, community-related inputs or institutional variables such as public
expenditures) into outputs (e.g. number of graduates, students’ test scores, attendance rate,
enrollment, employability). Provision of public education is considered efficient if it makes
the best possible use of available inputs. The toolbox to assess the efficiency in education
can be classified into two groups: non-parametric methods based on mathematical
optimization (such as Data Envelopment Analysis, Free Disposal Hull, Order-m frontiers,
meta-frontier, etc.) and parametric approaches such as the Stochastic Frontier Analysis SFA
[16]. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in its various forms is popular among researchers
because it can be used as input or output-oriented model and can operate with multi-input
and multi-output variables [17].
Research of efficiency in education focuses either on different teaching levels (primary, high-
school or university-tertiary level) or county/district level. A smaller group of research
focuses on the national level and cross-country analysis [18]. It is surprising that cross-
country studies are so rare because they can provide useful information on efficiency
benchmarks which are particularly important since education competes with other areas of
public expenditure in the budgetary resources allocation process.
Lack of international comparative studies on ‘spending efficiency’ on education prompted us
to contribute to the literature by analyzing public education services in NMS of EU. The
group of new EU member states includes Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia (Cyprus and Malta are
not included due to lack of data). What follows is a brief overview of the relevant literature
that supports this research.
Studies of efficiency of government spending on education in a cross-country perspective
(e.g. [19]; [20]; [21]; [22]; [23]; [24]; [26]; [27]; [28]; [29]; [30]; [31]; [32]; [33]; [33]) mainly
used DEA method to assess educational performance in a sample of European and/or OECD
countries. Availability of internationally standardized data (PISA) allowed for analysis of
quality of the secondary education. Research of higher educational systems in the EU and
OECD countries is still largely missing due to lack of comparable data.
Clements [19] applied a frontier technique called Free Disposable Hull (FDH) on OECD data.
He analyzed relative performance of EU countries in terms of expenditures per student and
student-teacher ratio as proxies for financial and human resources employed on the input
side and attainment in international standardized tests TIMSS (Trends in International
Mathematics and Science Study) as outputs. Results indicated that observed countries could
achieve educational output with 25% fewer resources on average. Afonso and St. Aubyn [21]
measured educational performance in 25 OECD countries 2000-2002 by comparing country’s
average PISA test results as output, and student-teacher ratio and time spent at school as
inputs. This research showed that countries should improve their educational performance
by 11.6 percent using the same resources. Improvements were found to be closely related to
country’s level of development as measured by GDP per capita and educational attainment
of adult population. Gimenez et al. [23] used similar non-parametric DEA model to assess
efficiency scores of educational systems for 31 countries, by applying various measures of
students’ socioeconomic background on the input side and TIMSS 1999 test scores as
output. Authors found that the most efficient educational systems can be found in post-
communist countries. A large number of developed countries could increase students’
performance by using fewer resources than those actually allocated to education.
Aristovnik [27] examined technical efficiency of education systems in 37 EU and OECD
countries including Croatia 1999-2007. Author used DEA approach separately for primary,
secondary and tertiary education. Expenditures per pupil/student in % of GDP per capita in
three educational sub-systems were used as inputs. Outputs/outcomes’ variables were PISA
2006 average scores, enrolment and completion rates. For output measures of tertiary
education author used % of labor force with tertiary education and tertiary unemployment
rate. Results revealed high inefficiency of Croatian education system. Similar findings were
found by Aristovnik and Obadić [28] who focused on technical efficiency of secondary
education in 31 countries of EU and OECD 1999.-2007. In four models that they employed
when results are combined, Croatia is ranked in the fourth quartile.
Agasisti [29] measured spending efficiency on education in the group of 20 European
countries. He extended analysis to two subsequent periods using PISA test scores in 2006
and 2009 as outputs, and expenditure per student and student-teacher ratio as input
variables. The results showed that groups of efficient and inefficient countries remained
quite similar in 2006 and 2009. Switzerland and Finland appear as benchmark for efficient
group, while Greece and Portugal hold the position at the bottom. Also, the same
educational performance could be achieved by 10% savings of resources. In the second
stage, the efficiency scores are regressed against socio-economic variables such as
unemployment rate and GDP per capita as well as against structural features of educational
system such as internet usage (as a proxy for technical literacy) and teachers’ salaries. Unlike
GDP p.c. structural variables have a positive impact on educational performance.
Gavurova et.al [33] applied output-oriented DEA model in the cross-country perspective to
assess the efficiency of public expenditure on secondary education in selected European
countries in 2015 using PISA test scores in math, reading and science as outputs and public
expenditure on the secondary education as % of GDP in 2014 as inputs. The results showed
relatively high educational performance in selected countries. In terms of usage of public
resources on the secondary education the highest efficiency scores among NMS were
observed in Estonia and Slovakia along with Finland, Ireland, Sweden, Norway and
Switzerland. However, most of NMS countries were found in a group of inefficient countries
with efficiency scores under the average. Three of NMS countries, Poland, Slovenia and
Croatia, have efficiency scores higher than average but were not included in the efficient
group of countries. Gavurova et. al. [33] conclusions on Croatian educational system differ
somewhat from earlier studies of Aristovnik [27] and Aristovnik and Obadić [28] which calls
for further research presented in this paper.
The next section contains an overview of methodology and data with brief descriptive
analysis. In the third section the results are presented and compared with previous ones,
showing high degree of inefficiency in line with Aristovnik [27] and Aristovnik and Obadić
[28]. Fourth section contains policy discussion and presents conclusions.
subject to
∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝜆𝑗 𝑋𝑗𝑖 ≤ 𝜃𝑥𝑖0
𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑚; (2)
∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝜆𝑗 𝑦𝑟𝑗 ≥ 𝑌𝑟0𝑟 = 1,2, … , 𝑠; (3)
∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝜆𝑗
=1 (4)
𝜆𝑗 ≥ 0 j = 1,2, . . . , n; (5)
where country N0 represents one of the N countries under evaluation, xi0 and yi0 stand for
the i-th input and r-th output of the country N0. Symbol θ is a scalar which represents the
efficiency score of the county N0. It measures the distance between each country and the
efficiency frontier, which is the linear combination of best performing countries. If θ equals 1
it means that it is not possible to proportionally reduce the input quantities for the selected
country, indicating that it is on the efficiency frontier. If θ is lower than 1, it indicates an
inefficient country inside the frontier. Vector λ represents weights in a linear combination of
positions of efficient countries which projects inefficient country N0 from its real position
below the efficient frontier (we can mark this position as A) to the “artificial” position on the
frontier (we can mark this position as A’). Difference between position A and position A’ is θ.
The restriction ∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝜆𝑗 = 1 imposes a convexity assumption, indicating variable returns to
scale. The problem has to be solved for each of the N countries in order to obtain the
efficiency coefficients.
2.2 Data
Research is based on publicly available secondary data obtained from the web sites of
international institutions. Data on PISA results were obtained from OECD database. Data on
expenditure on secondary education were obtained from UNESCO database on education
and data on expenditure for tertiary education are from the World Bank database on
education.
2.2.1 Secondary education
Input is expenditure on secondary education as a percentage of government expenditure on
education. PISA results (averages for three dimensions) are output variables. Input variables
are constructed in a way that they represent the average of expenditures four years before,
and a year of PISA test (due to the lack of data, expenditures for PISA test 2015 are averaged
for the period 2010-2013 or 2014, depending on the availability; also, it is important to point
out that UNESCO dataset does not contain data for Croatia for every year - data is available
for 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013).
For example, for PISA results in 2009 we use average data on expenditures from 2005-2009.
Quality of education cannot improve within a one-year period as it takes time for positive
effects of increased spending (e.g. higher wages for teachers, digitalization etc.) to
materialize.
Fig.1 (a) - (c) shows the “efficient frontier” by connecting the (efficient) countries on “edges”
of the sample. Those countries are in DEA analysis called “benchmarks” and it is clear that
Lithuania, Estonia and Poland lie at the efficiency frontier or very close to it in all three PISA
years.
These figures suggest that most countries are not using their inputs efficiently. Most of them
are positioned relatively far from the efficiency frontier. From 2009 to 2015 positions of the
countries below the efficient frontier became more condensed and most of the countries
drifted away from the frontier which is in line with the well-known finding that average PISA
scores did not improve recently. Probity of these observations will be analytically tested in
the next section of the paper.
3 RESULTS
Tables below contain efficiency scores, data on real inputs, optimal inputs, i.e. level of inputs
which countries could use to keep the outputs at the same level, and a column with possible
reduction of inputs which can be seen as a measure of “resource wastefulness”.
Source: authors
Two Baltic countries were on the efficient frontier in 2009 - Estonia and Lithuania, while
Poland was near the efficient frontier. Croatia ranked among bottom three countries, with
the efficiency score of 0.62. In 2012 Estonia and Lithuania kept their position at the efficient
frontier and Poland joined efficient group. Croatian position changed to the fourth place
from the bottom of the scale as more countries recorded weaker scores. Finally, in 2015
Poland drifted away from the efficient frontier, which made only Estonia and Lithuania
benchmark countries. Croatia worsened its position, moving back to the group of three
weakest performers. Croatia could reduce share of expenditures on secondary education by
6.6-8.1 percentage points, while keeping its PISA results unhanged. Results for Croatia are
mostly in line with conclusion of Aristovnik [27] and Aristovnik and Obadić [28].
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