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Answer Key Quizactivity - Mansci

The document contains tables and data about probabilities and distributions. It includes examples calculating probabilities for normal, uniform, exponential, and Poisson distributions. Various probabilities are computed, such as the probability of a random variable falling within a range or exceeding a threshold. Formulas for finding probabilities from the different distributions are also provided.

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Kyla Mendoza
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61 views

Answer Key Quizactivity - Mansci

The document contains tables and data about probabilities and distributions. It includes examples calculating probabilities for normal, uniform, exponential, and Poisson distributions. Various probabilities are computed, such as the probability of a random variable falling within a range or exceeding a threshold. Formulas for finding probabilities from the different distributions are also provided.

Uploaded by

Kyla Mendoza
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Amount (Peso) Number Amount (Peso) Number

0–49 13 0–49 13
50–99 22 50–99 28
100–149 34 100–149 5
150–199 26 150–199 20
200–249 5 200–249 34
Total 100 Total 100

a. 0.31 0.54
b 0.69 0.46

P(a) 0.40 P(BUC) 0.60


p(b) 0.40 P(B) 0.40
P(c) 0.60 P(C) 0.60
P(AUB) 0.80 P(AUB) 0.60
P(ac) 0.60 P(A) 0.40
P(Cc) 0.40 P(Ac) 0.60
P(AUBc) 0.60 P(Cc) 0.40
P(BUCc) 0.60 P(AUBc) 0.80

P(MD/D) 0.33 0.44

Account Balance
0–P499 P500–P999
Age of the Account P1000 or More Total
Less than 2 years 120 240 90 450
2 years or more 75 275 200 550
195 515 290 1000

Less than 2 years 0.12 0.24 0.09 0.45


2 years or more 0.075 0.275 0.2 0.55
0.195 0.515 0.29 1.00

a. 0.45
b. 0.29
c. 0.08
d. 0.50
e. 0.09
f. 0.53
Account Balance
0–P499 P500–P999 P1000 or More Total
Less than 2 years 120 240 120 480
2 years or more 90 280 150 520
210 520 270 1000

Less than 2 years 0.12 0.24 0.12 0.48


2 years or more 0.09 0.28 0.15 0.52
0.21 0.52 0.27 1.00

0.54
0.27
0.48
0.07
0.54
0.12
A C D

Absolute Absolute Exponential


error Percent Moving error^2 Percent Smoothing error^2
Week Value Naïve (Naïve) Error Average (MA) Error Error (a=0.2) (ES)
1 18
2 13 18 -5 38.46 18.00 25.00
3 16 13 3 18.75 17.00 1.00
4 11 16 -5 45.45 15.67 21.81 -4.67 42.45 16.80 33.64
5 17 11 6 35.29 13.33 13.47 3.67 21.59 15.64 1.85
6 14 17 -3 21.43 14.67 0.45 -0.67 4.79 15.91 3.65
TOTAL 75 35.73
B. MFE -0.80 MSE 11.91 MSE 13.03

G. MAE (0.2) 3.01


MAE (0.1) 3.18

H.
MAPE (Naïve) 31.88
MAPE (MA) 22.94
MAPE (0.2) 23.82
MAPE(0.1) 25.37

P Value xy x2
1 6.5 6.5 1 b1 1.46
2 8.1 16.2 4 bo 4.7
3 8.4 25.2 9
4 10.2 40.8 16 F 19.3
5 12.5 62.5 25
6 13.3 79.8 36
7 13.7 95.9 49
8 17.2 137.6 64
9 18.1 162.9 81
45 108 627.4 285
2025
F

error Absolute Exponential error Absolute


Absolute Percent Smoothing Absolute error^2 Percent
(ES) Error Error (a=0.1) (ES) (ES) Error Error

5.00 -5.00 38.46 18.00 5.00 25.00 -5.00 38.46


1.00 -1.00 6.25 17.50 1.50 2.25 -1.50 9.38
5.80 -5.80 52.73 17.35 6.35 40.32 -6.35 57.73
1.36 1.36 8.00 16.72 0.28 0.08 0.28 1.65
1.91 -1.91 13.64 16.75 2.75 7.56 -2.75 19.64

MSE 15.04
a=.2 is preferred

YES
x f(x)
-100 0.1 A 0.05
0 0.2 B 0.7
50 0.3 C 0.4
100 0.25
150 0.1
200 0.05

Room Days f(x) Ave. Rooms Variance


1 3 0.15 0.15 0.4084
2 5 0.25 0.5 0.1056
3 8 0.40 1.2 0.0490
4 4 0.20 0.8 0.3645
20 1.00 2.65 0.9275

A. 3 rooms
B. 0.93
C. 0.96

3. A random variable x is uniformly distributed between 1.0 and 1.5.

Find P(1.00 < x < 1.25) 0.50


Find P(1.20 < x < 1.50) 0.60

4. Most computer languages have a function that can be used to


generate random numbers. In Microsoft’s Excel, the RAND
function can be used to generate random numbers between 0
and 1.

What is the probability of generating a random number between 0.25 and 0.75? 0.5
What is the probability of generating a random number with a value less than or equal to 0.30? 0.3
What is the probability of generating a random number with a value greater than 0.60? 0.4

5. The demand for a new product is estimated to be normally distributed with


m = 200 and s = 40. Let x be the number of units demanded, and find the
following probabilities:
Z (180) P Z(220) P ANSWER
P(180 < x < 220) -0.5 0.30854 0.5 0.69146 0.38292
P(x > 250) 1.25 0.89435 0.10565
P(x < 100) -2.5 0.00621 0.00621
P(225 < x < 250) 0.625 0.73401 1.25 0.89435 0.16034

6. Consider the exponential probability density function:

Find P(x < 2) 0.4866


Find P(x > 3) 0.3679 complement
Find P(x < 5) 0.8111
Find P(2 < x < 5) 0.3245

7. More than 50 million guests stayed at bed and breakfasts (B&Bs) last year. POISSON
The website for the Bed and Breakfast Inns of Baguio City, which averages
approximately seven visitors per minute, enables many B&Bs to attract guests.

a.      What is the probability of no website visitors in a 1-minute period?


b.     What is the probability of two or more website visitors in a 1-minute period?
c.      What is the probability of one or more website visitors in a 30-second period?
d.     What is the probability of five or more website visitors in a 1-minute period?
complement
0.0009 0 0.0009 0.0302
0.9927 complement 1 0.0064
0.9698 complement 2 0.0223
0.8271 complement 3 0.0521
4 0.0912
5 0.1277
6 0.149
7 0.149

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