TOPIC: Research on China's trade growth.

Trade statistics between

China and the rest of the world

Members group:

1.Nguyễn Thị Bích Hường (CS150489)

2.Lý Ái Khên (CS150737)

3.Lưu Hữu Nghĩa (CS150797)

4.Nguyễn Nhạn Nhi (CS150365)

5.Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Trâm (CS150775)

6.Trần Hoài Ân (CS150026)

 GROUP ASSIGNMENT – ECO201 - GROUP 4
I.China's Trade Overview from 2018-2020
The year 2018
In 2018, China's economy developed at a reasonable rate, completing relatively well the
main expected indicators of socio-economic development. GDP growth of 90,030.9
billion yuan (equivalent to 13,285.75 billion USD), a growth of 6.6%, completing the set
development target of about 6.5%.
Total import and export turnover reached a record level, the trade structure was
constantly being upgraded: import and export of goods reached 30,505 billion yuan
(equivalent to 4,494.22 billion USD), an increase of 9.7% over the year. In 2017, exports
and imports grew by 7.1% and 12.9%, respectively, with a trade surplus of 2,330.3 billion
yuan (equivalent to 343.32 billion USD).
Commenting on development results in 2018, Chinese authorities said that the economy
continued to develop at a reasonable level.
The year 2019
In December 2019, the trade balance of goods had a surplus of 0.26 billion USD. This
result has contributed to bringing the country's merchandise trade surplus in 2019 to a
surplus of $11.12 billion.
By the end of 2019, the total import-export turnover of the whole country reached 517.26
billion USD, up 7.6% (equivalent to 36.69 billion USD) compared to 2018. In which, the
value of exported goods imports reached USD 264.19 billion, up 8.4% and imports
reached USD 253.07 billion, up 6.8%. Import and export trade continued the steady
growth trend. In the first 7 months of 2019, the EU, ASEAN, and the US remained
China's 3 largest trading partners. In which, import-export turnover with the EU reached
2.72 trillion yuan, up 10.8%; import-export turnover with ASEAN reached 2.35 trillion
yuan, up 11.3%; import and export turnover with the US was 2.12 trillion yuan, down
8.1%.
The year 2020
According to the World Bank's Global Economic Outlook Report (WB), due to the
impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the global economy is shrinking and this is the worst
economic recession since the world. Since the Second World War, in which, major
economies have suffered serious declines (such as the US shrinking by 6.1%, the
European Union (EU) shrinking by 9.1%). However, China is one of the few major
economies that has not fallen into a recession (1% growth forecast). Despite the adverse
effects of Covid-19, the trade war with the US, and other uncertainties stable in the
world, but China's trade surplus still grew and contributed about 15% to GDP in the first
nine months of 2020.
With global trade volume forecast to decline by 10.4% this year (IMF, 2020), China will
continue to increase its trade share and assert a new position in the international arena.
Data from the General Statistics Office of China (NBS) shows that, after experiencing a
6.8% decline in economic growth in the first quarter of 2020, the country's economy grew
again in the second quarter 2020 and the third quarter of 2020 respectively at 3.2% and
4.9% after the Covid-19 epidemic was controlled. China will be the only major economy
with positive GDP growth in 2020 at 1.9% forecasted by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF). This result confirms the position of the second-largest economy today,
contributing to shortening the gap with the US and ease with the rest of the world
(ROW). Besides, it can be mentioned that the number of export and import turnover of
China. The total value of import and export turnover in the first 5 months of 2020
reached 11.54 trillion yuan (equivalent to 1.602 billion USD).
*Export:
China's exports are growing rapidly. Despite the impact of Covid-19 and the global
blockade, typically a drop of more than 16% as of February 2020. However, the recovery
momentum returned and increased rapidly in the months of August, September, and
October with 9.5%, 9.9% and 11.4% respectively over the same period, contributing to
cumulative exports plan to increase by 0.5%.
The recovery of China's economy, typically trade activity coming from bold decisions to
control the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, is a decisive factor in whether the economy
will recover. recovery and growth. More specifically, China has shown a rapid industrial
recovery after plunging at around -26% in February 2020 (chart). But August, September
were 5.6% and 6.9% respectively over the same period in 2019, accumulated in 9 months
of 2020 increased by 1.2%. October 2020 remained at 6.9%, so industrial growth has
returned to almost the same level as before the pandemic.
One problem facing China today is that the renminbi (CNY) has been appreciating
against the US dollar (USD) in recent months, and this trend will continue at least until
the end of 2020. Compared to the beginning of 2020, the CNY in early November 2020
has appreciated by about 4% against the USD. The explanation for this price increase is
that the Chinese economy has recovered, exports have increased, and international capital
flows continue to flow into the country, especially to the bond market. CNY appreciation
will be a counterforce to China's export growth as the country's goods will become more
expensive to the rest of the world (ROW).

Growth in China's industrial value added (% year-on-year) in September 2019 and

October 2020. Source: Data extracted from NBS.
*Import:
China's imports are also recovering, but slower than exports. In October 2020, although
China's import value decreased by about 2.3% over the same period, in recent months
there have been signs of recovery. As is the trade between China and the US, by the end
of October 2020, China's imports from the US recovered significantly with an increase of
3.3% over the same period last year. This is a sign that China is working to meet the
increased terms of buying goods from the US in the phase one trade deal approved in
January 2020.
II. Reasons and causes of China's miraculous growth.
China's reform in 2018 to restructure supply and upgrade the economy continues to be
strongly promoted, reflected in the resolution of overcapacity in production, reduction of
inventories. warehouse, removing leverage, lowering costs, completing weak stages, the
economic structure continued to be upgraded. Regarding development results in 2018,
Chinese authorities said that the economy continued to develop at a reasonable level,
ensuring overall stability and making certain progress; At the same time, he also
acknowledged that, under the influence of the very complicated external environment, the
economy was under great pressure and faced many problems in the development process,
so in 2019 it must persist in the development concepts new development, persistently
promoting high-quality development and reforming supply structure. In recent years, the
Chinese government has always chosen to "intervene" when the economy is in trouble,
support the stock market, and use other bond swap programs.
China continued to set the direction for socio-economic development in 2020, which is to
stick to the goal of completing the comprehensive construction of a well-off society;
persisting in the orientation of "stable upward", high-quality development; doing well the
“Six stabilitys” are employment stability, financial stability, foreign trade stability,
foreign investment stability, domestic investment stability and forecast stabilit and “Six
guarantees” are included ensure jobs, ensure people's basic livelihoods, secure markets,
ensure food and energy security, secure supply chains, industry chains, and ensure
grassroots operations in parallel with disease prevention and control and socio-economic
development. This is a group of urgent measures to cope with the adverse effects of the
COVID-19 epidemic and the recession of the world economy. This demonstrates China's
initiative and positivity to resolve difficulties, seek new breakthroughs, contribute to
stabilizing people's lives, and ensure the economy continues to "go up in stability’’.
Premier Li Keqiang also emphasized that China's top task in 2020 is to restore
production, revive the economy, stabilize jobs and comprehensively eliminate poverty.
Expanding domestic consumption demand, stimulating domestic demand; tightening
public spending. Supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, foreign trade and
foreign investment... with businesses and localities across the country in order to find
measures to restore and develop the economy and create conditions to support businesses
and the people. The Chinese government has made job creation a top priority, especially
supporting disadvantaged families, low incomes and disadvantaged groups in society.
It can be said that the COVID-19 epidemic has negatively affected the Chinese economy
in the medium and long term, however, the Chinese economy has shifted its development
focus, taking domestic demand as the main pillar especially consumption has become the
main growth factor; stable foreign trade and central position in the global supply chain;
promoting consumer demand after the epidemic; initiate reforms and upgrade the digital
infrastructure to boost the economy; providing and supplementing shortages of public
products and services, bringing China's economy back to stable growth gradually, and
fulfilling the socio-economic development targets set in 2020.
Thus, China's trade activities have contributed to the miraculous recovery of this
country's economy. The Bloomberg newspaper has made a prediction that China will
contribute to global economic growth at 26.8% in 2021, this figure will be 27.7% in
2025.

III. Trade between China and countries around the world.

In 2018, China and ASEAN countries continued to "shake hands" to promote free trade
between the two sides, announced the "Vision of ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership
2030", giving a promising detailed plan appointment for the cooperation relationship
between the two sides for the next years. At the same time, it also sets short-term targets
on total two-way trade turnover.
In particular, the trade cooperation between China and ASEAN entered a more
comprehensive development phase with a series of events taking place in 2019. As a
result, China has now completed the construction of economic zones in a number of
countries such as Long Giang Industrial Park, Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone,
Rayong Industrial Park. In addition, at the 9th meeting of the Joint Council of the
ASEAN-China Center taking place in China in December 2019, the Work Agenda for
2020 was approved with many key projects in 4 groups priority areas. At the same time,
the countries emphasized that they would focus on supporting the realization of decisions
of the ASEAN-China Summits such as the 2030 Vision Statement on strategic
partnership, the Declaration on Cooperation between ASEAN and China smart cities.
In 2019, the total trade value of ASEAN-China reached 641.6 billion USD, 11 times
higher than the total trade value of 54.8 billion USD when the FTA was launched in
2002.
Except for intra-ASEAN, if in 2005 China was only a minor export market of ASEAN
with export turnover accounting for only 3.7% of export turnover of the whole region,
much lower than the US market Japan and EU-28.
Not only that, but China is also the market with the highest volume of goods exported to
ASEAN. In 2018, the proportion of goods imported into ASEAN from the Chinese
market reached 20.5%, 4 times higher than the proportion of 5.4% in 2005 and much
higher than the EU-28 markets (9.2%), Japan (8.4%), and the United States (7.4%).
In the opposite direction, ASEAN is also gradually becoming an important trading
partner of China. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of
China, in 2019, ASEAN has continuously held the position of China's second-largest
trading partner with a trade market share of 14%, the highest level since the statistics. In
1992 and the growth of bilateral trade turnover is always high. In the first two months of
this year, ASEAN surpassed the EU to become China's largest trading partner with a total
bilateral trade value of 594 billion yuan, up 2% over the same period in 2019, accounting
for 14.4%. of China's total foreign trade. In which, export turnover from China to
ASEAN is 309 billion yuan; import turnover from ASEAN reached 285 billion yuan;
trade surplus of 24 billion yuan.
Not only achieving remarkable results in goods trade, but the two sides also constantly
promote cooperation in many different fields. Currently, China and ASEAN are
continuing to make cooperative efforts to promote the green economic partnership and
expand the sustainable exploitation of marine resources. 2020 is also the year of ASEAN-
China digital economic cooperation, focusing on developing areas such as 5G networks,
e-commerce, science and technology innovation, and smart cities. In addition, China
pledged to actively cooperate with ASEAN and other parties to promote the signing of
the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as expected by the end of
this year.
In the third quarter of 2020, China overtook the US to become the top trading partner of
the European Union (EU). This is attributed to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
causing difficulties to the US economy, while China's economic activities increased
again. In the first 9 months of 2020, trade turnover between the EU and China China
reached 425.5 billion euros ($514 billion. However, on the other hand, this is the first
time that China has become the EU's top trading partner. After the shock related to the
COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, China's economy recovered, China's
imports from the EU recovered in the third quarter, while demand for personal protective
equipment in Europe has strongly boosted Chinese exports.
*SOLUTION
Facing the advantages and challenges in trade between countries in the world today, it is
necessary to have a number of solutions as follows:
First, we think it is necessary to strengthen the implementation of macro policies, focus
on stabilizing enterprises and ensuring jobs. Proposing specific measures to reduce taxes,
fees, and production and business costs of enterprises.
Second, the environment should be improved for private economic development;
promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the development of emerging
industries and professions; promote scientific development - technological innovation;
promote entrepreneurship and creativity.
Finally, implementing the strategy of expanding domestic consumption demand, because
China's domestic demand is very large, it is necessary to strengthen reforms to focus on
developing domestic demand in depth, promoting return to consumption, synchronously
implement policies to support Hubei province (the province hardest hit by the COVID-19
epidemic) to develop, support jobs, ensure people's livelihood, ensure traffic, promote
economic push. - holistic rehabilitation of society; ensure energy security.
IV.CONCLUSION
Take a look at the problem in general. From 2018 to 2020, China clearly shows a strong
growth and a decrease after the period of the world pandemic in 2020, which is also a big
challenge for this country. But due to effective policies and solutions, China's economy in
recent times has been getting better and better in both breadth and depth. That shows that
the recovery speed is very fast, the number can be up to 4.1% per year has basically
recovered, the growth momentum is maintained. Currently, apart from the employment
situation that has not improved significantly, most other economic indicators show a
recovery.
Statistics released by NBS also show that, in 2020, China's labor market will continue to
remain stable. In particular, investment in high-tech industry, health care and education
increased faster than average. Although the results have exceeded expectations, the NBS
still warned that China still faces many uncertainties due to the changing epidemic
situation and the impact from the external environment. Thereby, the agency
recommended that China continue to take necessary measures to strengthen its efforts to
control the epidemic and develop its economy.
V.REFERENCES
https://nhandan.vn/tin-tuc-the-gioi/nam-2018-kinh-te-trung-quoc-tang-truong-6-6-347686
https://www.customs.gov.vn/Lists/ThongKeHaiQuan/ViewDetails.aspx?
ID=1734&Category=Ph%C3%A2n&Group
https://saigondautu.com.vn/the-gioi/vi-the-moi-cua-trung-quoc-trong-thuong-mai-toan-
cau-85914.html