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MA2177 Solution To Exercise 5 - Ch.5 Probability and Discrete Probability Distributions

This document contains solutions to exercises involving probability distributions including the binomial, normal, and Poisson distributions. It addresses concepts like the probability of a certain number of successes in binomial trials, using the normal approximation for large binomial samples, properties of the Poisson distribution, and calculating probabilities and expected values for random variables following these distributions.

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45 views

MA2177 Solution To Exercise 5 - Ch.5 Probability and Discrete Probability Distributions

This document contains solutions to exercises involving probability distributions including the binomial, normal, and Poisson distributions. It addresses concepts like the probability of a certain number of successes in binomial trials, using the normal approximation for large binomial samples, properties of the Poisson distribution, and calculating probabilities and expected values for random variables following these distributions.

Uploaded by

kyle cheung
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MA2177 Solution to Exercise 5 – Ch.

5 Probability and Discrete Probability


Distributions

1. Binomial distributions are used to model situations where


1) there must be a fixed number of trials
2) the trials must be independent
3) there are only 2 possible outcomes for each trial
4) the probability of success must be the same for each trial

(i) Let X be the number of heads in 5 flips.


Then X follows a binomial distribution with n  5 and p  0.5 ,
i.e. X ~ B(5, 0.5) .

P( x  3)  5C3 0.53 0.55 3  10  0.53 0.52  0.3125

(ii) Let X be the number of heads in 100 flips.


X ~ B (100, 0.5)
Since np  100  0.5  50  5 and nq  100  0.5  50  5 , we use normal
approximation to binomial with   np  100  0.5  50 and

  npq  100  0.5  0.5  5 .

P X  45  P X  44.5 (Continuity correction)


 X   44.5  50 
 P    P( z  1.1)  P( z  1.1)  0.1357
  5 

2. (i) P(1)  P(2)    P(6)  1  P(1)  2 P(1)  3P(1)  4 P(1)  5 P(1)  6 P(1)  1
1 i i
 21 P(1)  1  P (1)   P(i )  6

21 21
j j 1

3 3
 6  5
P(no '6' )  1     
 21   7 

3
 5 218
 P(at least one '6' )  1  P(no '6' )  1      0.63557
7 343
6 6
i2 1
(ii) Mean   iP(i )   4
i 1 i 1 21 3
6
20
Variance   i 2 P (i )   2   2.22
i 1 9

1
3. (i) Let X be the number of hits the enemy ship would get.
X ~ B (3, 0.4) ( x  0, 1, 2, 3)
 P( X  0)  3 C0 (0.4) 0 (0.6)3  0.216

P( X  1)  3 C1 (0.4)1 (0.6) 2  0.432

P ( X  2)  3 C 2 (0.4) 2 (0.6)1  0.288

P ( X  3)  3 C3 (0.4) 3 (0.6) 0  0.064


(ii) E ( X )  np  3  0.4  1.2

4. (i) Let x be the number of ticket-holders who show up. Then x has a binomial
distribution with n  260 , p  0.9 , q  0.1 .
Not all the ticket-holders who show up will be accommodated if x > 240.
260  260 
The formula for the exact probability is   0.9  x 0.1260  x .
x  241
x 

(ii) Since np  260  0.9  234  5 and nq  260  0.1  26  5 , we use normal

approximation to binomial with   np  234 and   npq  4.8374 .

P( x  240)  P( x  240.5) (Continuity correction)


 240.5  234 
 P z    P ( z  1.34)  0.0901
 4.8374 

5. Let X = number of amoebas in 10ml of pond water, where   4 is the average number
of amoebas in 10ml of pond water.
e   x
Using P( X  x)  with   4 :
x!
e 4 4 5
(i) P( X  5)   0.156 (to 3 sig. fig.)
5!
e 4 4 0
(ii) P( X  0)   0.0183 (to 3 sig. fig.)
0!
(iii) P( X  3)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)
e 4 40 e 4 41 e 4 4 2
  
0! 1! 2!
 0.238 (to 3 sig. fig.)

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