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Conditional Probability..

This document provides information about conditional probability and independent events from the Mathematics Department of the Faculty of Sciences and Literature. It defines conditional probability as the probability of an event E given that another event F has occurred. It provides examples of calculating conditional probability using formulas. It also discusses independent events as those where the probability of one event does not depend on whether the other occurs.

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ضياء بن احمد الكباري
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105 views

Conditional Probability..

This document provides information about conditional probability and independent events from the Mathematics Department of the Faculty of Sciences and Literature. It defines conditional probability as the probability of an event E given that another event F has occurred. It provides examples of calculating conditional probability using formulas. It also discusses independent events as those where the probability of one event does not depend on whether the other occurs.

Uploaded by

ضياء بن احمد الكباري
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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F A C U LT Y O F S C I E N C E S A N D L I T E R AT U R E .

M AT H E M AT I C S D E PA R T M E N T
1
LEVEL (3)
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILIT Y
P R E PA R E D B Y : A R YA M B E N T M O H A M M E D .
AMAL HASSAN.
S U P E RV I S E D B Y : D R . WA L A A M A R I O U D

2
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
example:
• Toss a balanced die once and record the number on
the top face.
• Let E be the event that a 1 shows on the top face.
• Let F be the event that the number on the top face is
odd.
– What is P(E)?
– What is the Probability of the event E if we are told that
the number on the top face is odd, that is, we know that
the event F has occurred?

3
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• Key idea: The original sample space no longer
applies.
• The new or reduced sample space is
S = {1, 3, 5}
• Notice that the new sample space consists only of
the outcomes in F.
• P(E occurs given that F occurs) = 1 / 3
• Notation: P (E |F ) = 1 / 3

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

• Definition: The conditional probability of E given


F is the probability that an event, E, will occur
given that another event, F, has occurred

P( E  F ) if P( F )  0
P( E | F ) 
P( F )

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
P( A  B)
P( A B) 
P( B)
A B

S
6
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• If the outcomes of an experiment are
equally likely, then:

number of outcomes in E  F
P( E | F ) 
number of outcomes in F

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

• Example:
Earned degrees in the United States in recent
year B M P D Total
Female 616 194 30 16 856
Male 529 171 44 26 770
Total 1145 365 74 42 1626

529
P( Male | B)   0.4620
1145

770
P( Male)   0.4735
1626 8
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

P( E  F )
P( E | F ) 
P( F )
Conditional Probability can be rewritten as follows

P( E  F )  P( E | F ) * P( F )

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Example:
E: dollar falls in value against the yen
F: supplier demands renegotiation of contract

P( E )  0.40
P( F | E )  0.8
Find P( E  F )

P( E  F )  0.8 * 0.4  0.32

10
SOME MORE EXAMPLES TO ILLUSTRATE THE USE
OF THE FORMULA OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY.
• Example:

7 9 4
If P ( A)  , P( B)  and P ( A  B )  , evaluate P ( A | B ).
13 13 13
SOLUTION:

P ( A  B ) 4 / 13 4
We have P ( A | B )   
P( B) 9 / 13 9

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SOME MORE EXAMPLES TO ILLUSTRATE THE USE
OF THE FORMULA OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY.
• Example:
The table below shows the number of survey subjects who
have received and not received a speeding ticket in the last
year, and the color of their car. Find the probability that a
randomly chosen person:
a) Has a speeding ticket given they have a red car
b) Has a red car given they have a speeding ticket

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SOLUTION:
a) Since we know the person has a red car, we are only considering
the 150 people in the first row of the table. Of those, 15 have a
speeding ticket, so P(ticket | red car) =
15 1
P (ticket | red car )    0 .1
150 10
b) b) Since we know the person has a speeding ticket, we are only
considering the 60 people in the first column of the table. Of those,
15 have a red car, so P(red car | ticket) =

15 1
P (red car | tickit )    0.25
60 4

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INDEPENDENT EVENTS

• If the probability of the occurrence of event A is the same


regardless of whether or not an outcome B occurs, then
the outcomes A and B are said to be independent of one
another. Symbolically, if
P ( A | B )  P ( A)

Then A and B are independent events.

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INDEPENDENT EVENTS
P( A  B)  P( A | B) * P( F )
• Then we can also state the following relationship for independent
events:

P ( A  B )  P ( A) * P ( B )
If and only if
A and B are independent events

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INDEPENDENT EVENTS
• EXAMPLE:
• A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 3 on the
die.
• Probabilities:
P(head) = 1/2
P(3) = 1/6
P(head and 3) = 1/2 * 1/6 = 1/12

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INDEPENDENT EVENTS
• EXAMPLE:
• A die is thrown. If E is the event ‘the number appearing is
a multiple of 3’ and F be the event ‘the number appearing
is even’ then find whether E and F are independent ?
• SOLUTION:
We know that the sample space is S  {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Now E  {3,6}, F  {2,4,6} and E  F  {6}
2 1 3 1 1
Then P ( E )   , P ( F )   and P ( E  F ) 
6 3 6 2 6
Clearly P( E  F )  P( E )  P( F )
Hence E and F are independent events.
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REFERENCES.
• https://www.ucl.ac.uk/~rmjbale/Stat/2.pdf
• https://www2.isye.gatech.edu/isyebayes/bank/handout1.pdf
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHfhpAhGdvY&t=330s
• http://www.opentextbookstore.com/busprecalc/busprecalc8-2.pdf

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