DUN & BRADSTREET

ASEAN
Business Optimism Index
Quarter 4 2015

Measuring Measured
Confidence Decisions

G R O W I N G R E L AT I O N S H I P S T H R O U G H D ATA
BUSI N E SS O P T I M I S M I N D E X
The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index (BOI) report is a measure of business confidence in the economy.
Released quarterly, it measures the pulse of the business community and is one of the most effective ways to track
how the business community perceives the business environment, and where they think it is going. Over time, this
quarterly survey has emerged as a leading indicator of turning points in economic activity in countries which it
is published.

SUR V E Y M ET H O D O L O G Y
For the purpose of conducting the survey, a sample is randomly selected from Dun & Bradstreet database, consisting of
companies belonging to the following sectors including Agriculture, Construction, Utilities, Finance, Manufacturing,
Mining, Services, Transportation, Wholesale, and Real Estate.

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION UTILITIES FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALERS REAL ESTATE

All the respondents in the survey are asked six standard questions regarding their expectations as to whether the
following critical parameters pertaining to their respective companies will register an increase ( ), decline ( ) or
show no change ( ) in the ensuing quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year: Volume of Sales, Net
Profits, Selling Prices, New Orders, Inventory Levels, and Employees.

SALES NET SELLING NEW INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT

VOLUME PROFIT PRICE ORDERS

The individual indices are then calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents expecting decreases from
those expecting increases. Unless otherwise stated, increases and decreases in indices represent changes from the
previous quarter.
ASEAN Business Optimism Index | Q U A R T ER 4 , 2015
The leading indicator of business confidence for Southeast Asia region

A S E AN -6
INDONESIA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM

S A L ES V OLU ME

N E T PR OFIT

S E L L I NG PR ICE

N E W OR DE R S

IN V E NTORY

E MPLOYME N T

Businesses are asked to give their

outlook on six key indicators SALES NET SELLING NEW INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT
VOLUME PROFIT PRICE ORDERS

GDP Forecast 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

10
9
8
7
6 6.8
6 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 5.9 6 6.2 6 6.2
5 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8
5.2 5.2 5.4
4 4.7 4.8
4 4.2
3
3.5 3.7
2 2.9 3.1 3.1 3
2.5 2.5
1
0

INDONESIA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM

Source: Dun & Bradstreet – Country Insight Services

SUM M ARY
Among the 6 ASEAN member states surveyed by Dun & Bradstreet for its Business Optimism Index (BOI), overall
sentiment remains relatively upbeat in Vietnam and Philippines for the coming fourth quarter. In contrast, business
confidence has deteriorated sharply in Malaysia and Thailand. Most indicators have similarly underperformed in
Indonesia, the region’s largest economy, and Singapore. Prevailing global economic uncertainty continues to weigh
on expectations of the business community. The blunted growth trajectory of China, the third largest trading partner
for ASEAN, has also cast shadows on this region.

The quarterly ASEAN BOI is the first business optimism metric for Southeast Asia, one of the world’s largest trade
regions which will establish the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in December 2015.

INDEX

INDONESIA Roaring Year Ends in a Whimper 05

MALAYSIA Clouds Gathering in Malaysian Skies 08

PHILIPPINES Slightly Shaken But Still Sturdy 11

SINGAPORE Industries Brace for Some Hard Knocks 14

THAILAND Not Quite Out of the Woods Yet 17

VIETNAM Businesses Tread Cautiously After Rebound 20

 Business Optimism Index
INDONESIA
Quarter 4 2015

Roaring Year Ends in a Whimper

The latest Business Optimism Index (BOI) from Dun 5.1% in August. As global economic uncertainty prevails,
& Bradstreet Indonesia reported its fourth consecutive particularly with the looming US rate hike and weakening
quarter of decline. The index has experienced a marked Chinese currency, growth began to taper. Domestic
and continuous slide since the beginning of this year, household consumption had also slipped from 5.01% in
and indicates that the slowdown in domestic economy Q1 to 4.97% in Q2.
is still taking place. The BOI score softened cautiously
from 34.9% in Q3 to 27.8 in Q4. All six parameters are To gear up the local economy President Joko Widodo
contractionary on q-o-q basis. The survey concludes that issued a package of booster policies named “September
a net weighted 11.9% of respondents see better business 1” to: (1) encourage national industrial competitiveness
performance during the quarter. Meanwhile, those with through deregulation, debureaucratization, as well
pessimistic outlook stayed at 10.4%, the highest level in as law enforcement; (2) accelerate national strategic
the last five years. projects by eliminating various obstacles, blockages in the
implementation and completion of the strategic projects;
– Volume of Sales and Net Profit dropped 9% and 13% and (3) increase investment in property sector. In D&B’s
q-o-q respectively. Wholesale is the most pessimistic view, while government spending may still pick up in the
sector in both instances, followed by Transportation coming months, little additional support can be expected
and Mining. form the monetary channel. As expected, the central bank
kept policy rates unchanged at its 18 August meeting.
– Selling Price registered the highest value among all While it would certainly like to loosen monetary policy if
parameters at 10%, albeit flat from last quarter. This it could, there is little scope for this on account of elevated
is as most respondents plan to increase prices in the inflation and a fast depreciating currency. The authorities
coming quarter, due to the weakening Rupiah against will be keen to avoid a more precipitous decline in Rupiah
US dollar. that could lead to a broader loss of investor confidence in
– New Orders posted the largest decrease q-o-q (-14%) Indonesian assets.
from 13.7% in Q3 to negative 0.3% in Q4. Exports failed
OV ERA L L BOI S CORE CHA RT (Q3 2012 – Q4 2015 )
to lift prospects, as they have been falling rather sharply
60 7
due to low commodity prices and Chinese demand.
(%)

50 6

– Inventory and Employment also decreased, by -7% and

SCORE

6
40
GROWTH

-4% respectively. Mining and Agriculture sectors will 5

30
likely downsize hiring. 5
B OI

20
4
The downward trend is in line with the degradation of 10
GDP

4
Indonesia growth projections, which until now has been
0 3
revised by the government, twice. At the beginning of
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

this year, the central bank forecasted growth to be in the 2012 2013 2014 2015
respectable range of 5.4% to 5.8%. Guidance at 5.0% to Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
5.4% in June, and then announced a lower one at 4.7% to
 Business Optimism Index
INDONESIA
Quarter 4 2015

V OLUM E OF SALES 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

80

60

40

% 20

-20 8.6
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE MINING CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE FINANCE SERVICES UTILITIES ALL

N E T P ROFIT

80

60

40

% 20

-20 12.6
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE MINING CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE FINANCE SERVICES UTILITIES ALL

SE LLING PRICE

80

60

40

% 20

-20 1.0
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE MINING CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE FINANCE SERVICES UTILITIES ALL
 Business Optimism Index
INDONESIA
Quarter 4 2015

NE W O RDERS 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

80

60

40

% 20

-20 14.0
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE MINING CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE FINANCE SERVICES UTILITIES ALL

IN V E NTORY

40

30

20

10

% 0

-10

-20

-30
7.3
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE MINING CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE FINANCE SERVICES UTILITIES ALL

E M P LOYMENT

25

20

15

10
%
5

4.0
0

-5
Q-O-Q
-10

AGRICULTURE MINING CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE FINANCE SERVICES UTILITIES ALL
 Business Optimism Index
MALAYSIA
Quarter 4 2015

Clouds Gathering in Malaysian Skies

Business outlook of Malaysian firms plunged into the – Employment levels have fallen for the fourth
contractionary zone for Q4 2015 following a strong consecutive quarter from 6.5% in Q3 to negative
downward moderation in Q3. According to Dun & 4.5% in Q4.
Bradstreet Malaysia’s Business Optimism Index (BOI), the
score deteriorated from 2.62% in Q3 to negative 14.5% Political unrest, currency volatility (the ringgit has
in Q4. Compared to a year ago, this was 13.5% for Q4. fallen to its lowest since the Asian crisis), and low
The sharpest drops were observed in Volume of Sales, Net energy prices (the government relies on oil and gas for
Profits and Inventory. Among the sectors, Construction almost a third of its revenue) will continue to take a
and Transportation held their ground and remain relatively toll on confidence. Foreign investors are selling both
hopeful. Manufacturing fared the worst with all parameters government debt and shares (the country’s stock market
contracting, except Inventory which moved up a notch. has also fallen sharply), and the cost of insuring against
This is the 11th quarterly BOI released in Malaysia. a Malaysian debt default has soared.

– Volume of Sales took an acute fall, from 8% in Q3 to Despite gathering clouds in the quarter ahead, D&B’s
negative 34% in Q4. Net Profit also dived from 2% view is that Malaysia’s problems are, to some extent,
in Q3 to negative 37% in Q4. Although all the sectors superficial, and that the country needs merely to step
surveyed had expected Q4 to worsen at varying degrees, back from further debt accumulation. The central bank
Agriculture is the hardest hit in both parameters. has stepped back from intervening to stabilise the
currency, which we regard as a positive development.
– Selling Price climbed from 6% in Q3 to 11% in Q4; Economic reforms undertaken in the past decades have
bearing in mind that the new goods and services tax been sound and the fundamentals are far better than in
(GST) had taken effect at the start of Q2. This is other economies in the region.
also the only indicator which experienced a y-o-y
increase, from 1.5% in Q4 2014 to 11% this year.
OV ERA L L BOI S CORE CHA RT (Q2 2013 – Q4 2015 )
– New Orders contracted following two consecutive 40

quarters of growth (-16% q-o-q). Manufacturing is 30

the only sector that furnishes expectations on new

SCORE

20
orders. It should be noted that the Nikkei Malaysia
10
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
had fallen to a near 3-year low to 47.2 in August 2015.
B OI

-10
– Inventory recovered by +2% from last quarter. The only
-20
expansionary sector here is Construction (mild increase of
Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

+5%), while the rest are either holding their stock levels 2013 2014 2015
(Agriculture, Financial, Mining) or rationalizing them.
 Business Optimism Index
MALAYSIA
Quarter 4 2015

V OLUM E OF SALES 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

60
50
40
30
20
% 10
0
-10
-20
-30
42.0
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

NE T PROF IT

80
60
40
20
0
% -20
-40
-60
-80
-100
39.0
Q-O-Q
-120

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

SE LLING PRICE

80

60

40

% 20

-20 4.5
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

 Business Optimism Index
MALAYSIA
Quarter 4 2015

NE W O RDERS 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

15

10

% 0

-5

-10 17.3
Q-O-Q
-15

MINING

INV E N TORY

20
15
10
5
0
% -5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2.0
Q-O-Q
-30

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

E M P LOYMENT

40

30

20

10
%
0

-10

-20
11.0
Q-O-Q
-30

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

 Business Optimism Index
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 4 2015

Slightly Shaken But Still Sturdy

The overall confidence of the Filipino business community – Employment retreated from 45% in Q3 to 37% in
eased from 57% in Q3 to 52% in Q4, according to the Q4. This is a natural adjustment after the almost
latest findings by Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Philippines. threefold jump from Q2 to Q3, and with growing
The market has moved into its fourth consecutive quarter economic uncertainties abroad.
of decline, having started the year with heady optimism but
gradually decelerated. Out of the six survey parameters, Business confidence ahead may be somewhat shaken
only Volume of Sales is expansionary, inching from 75% but remains sturdy. While the Asian financial market
in Q3 to 81% in Q4. Transportation and Finance are turmoil has affected the Philippines, according to most
the most optimistic sectors. Conversely, Mining finds the analyses the country is among the least vulnerable to
least to cheer with depressed global energy prices. China in Southeast Asia (and to other recent adverse
developments such as soft commodity prices). The
– Volume of Sales increased +5.7%, buoyed by strong Philippine peso has declined less than other Asian
domestic demand throughout the year. In fact, currencies (similarly, the stock market has been more
growth is expected in Q4 in nearly all industries. resilient), its FX reserves have held steady, and the local
D&B maintains its GDP forecast of 6.2% for the financial markets are less internationalised. Philippine
year 2015, the region’s fastest. companies are also known to have learned their lesson
from the Asian crises and to fully hedge exchange
– Net Profit in Q4 trails slightly behind compared to rate risk. It is our view as well that the fallout for the
Q3 (73% and 77% respectively). More businesses Philippines will only be increased volatility; the main
in Finance and Transportation expect bottomlines downside risk for the country is indirect, via trade
to widen in Q4, a pattern similarly observed in links (in the event that a Chinese slowdown dampens
Volume of Sales. Although the optimism level for global growth).
most industries stays positive, the overall parameter
is dragged down by Mining.
OV ERA L L BOI S CORE CHA RT (Q1 2015 – Q4 2015 )
– Selling Price declined from 22% in Q3 to 15% in 80

Q4. Consumer prices have remained soft (it grew just

0.8% y-o-y in July, the lowest inflation on record), 60
SCORE

but authorities warned that the El Nino phenomenon

40
may push inflation higher in coming quarters.
B OI

–
New Orders and Inventory both moderated 20

downwards (61% and 30% respectively). Wholesale,

0
Agriculture and Mining sectors are the most
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

affected. It should be noted that exports have been 2015

underperforming for most of the year.
 Business Optimism Index
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 4 2015

V OLUM E OF SALES 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

120

100

80

% 60

40

20 5.7
Q-O-Q
0

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

NE T PROF IT

120

100

80

% 60

40

20 4.4
Q-O-Q
0

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

SE LLING PRICE

80

60

40

20

% 0

-20

-40

-60
7.3
Q-O-Q
-80

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

 Business Optimism Index
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 4 2015

NE W O RDERS 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

120

100

80

% 60

40

20 13.3
Q-O-Q
0

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

IN V E NTORY

120

100

80

60

% 40

20

-20
4.9
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

E M P LOYMENT

100
80
60
40
20
0
% -20
-40

7.6
-60
-80
-100 Q-O-Q
-120

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

 Business Optimism Index
SINGAPORE
Quarter 4 2015

Industries Brace for

Some Hard Knocks
Following two consecutive quarters of increase since Q2, – Meanwhile, Inventory decreased sharply but managed
business optimism plunges to near contractionary levels to stay above water, from 13% in Q3 to 1% in Q4.
in the final quarter of 2015. According to the Singapore Manufacturing is hit hardest at negative 60%.
Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB), which operates
under Dun & Bradstreet Singapore, the overall optimism – Interestingly, Employment only moderated slightly
index nosedived from 15% in Q3 to 0.1% in Q4, barely from 16% in Q3 to 15% in Q4. Hiring sentiments
scratching negative territory. In y-o-y comparison, the stood firm amid a robust talent market in the city
index has declined by 10.79%. The latest BOI reading is state. Gains are strongest in Construction, in line
the second lowest in nearly 3 years when it hit a historical with the pick-up of public sector projects. When
low of -0.82% in Q1 2013. For this quarter Q4, only viewed y-o-y, Employment actually increased +4.3%
2 out of the six parameters surveyed are expansionary, in the corresponding quarter.
which stands in sharp contrast last quarter when all six The compound effects of an overall global and regional
were expansionary. economic slowdown as well as mounting credit risks
Both Manufacturing and Transportation sectors have emanating from parts of Asia-Pacific such as China
taken a severe beating. The outlook for Manufacturing has have dampened business sentiments significantly for
been particularly bleak for the most part of 2015, weighed the final quarter. The report anticipates a challenging
down by biomedical and transport engineering sub- quarter ahead for businesses as there has been a general
sectors. According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, decline in optimism levels across most sectors, even in
the Manufacturing sector had shrunk by 4.9% y-o-y. Construction and Services which are typically energetic.
As sign of things to come, the Monetary Authority of
– Both Volume of Sales and Net Profit sank into the Singapore recently trimmed its GDP forecast from
contractionary zone for the first time since Q1 2015. 2.7% in June to 2.2% in September this year.
Sales tumbled from 28% in Q3 to negative 4% in Q4.
Moving in the similar direction, Profits fell from 14%
OV ERA L L BOI S CORE CHA RT (Q1 2013 – Q4 2015 )
in Q3 to negative 0.7% in Q4.
50

– Selling Price has also fallen into the subzero region, 40

from 2% in Q3 to negative 6% in Q4. The decline is
SCORE

30
even steeper on a y-o-y basis.
20

– New Orders relapsed to negative 22% in Q4, after

B OI

10
briefly reversing the downtrend in Q3. This concurs
0
with the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which fell
for the second consecutive month in August, following -10
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

further contractions in new orders and production 2013 2014 2015

output domestically, and new export orders overseas.
 Business Optimism Index
SINGAPORE
Quarter 4 2015

V OLUM E OF SALES 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

60
50
40
30
20
% 10
0
-10
-20
-30
32.1
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

NE T PROF IT

80

60

40

20

% 0

-20

-40

-60
15.0
Q-O-Q
-80

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

SE LLING PRICE

100
80
60
40
20
% 0
20
-40
-60
-80
8.5
Q-O-Q
-100

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

 Business Optimism Index
SINGAPORE
Quarter 4 2015

NE W O RDERS 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

20
15
10
5
0
% -5
-10
-15
-20
11.4
Q-O-Q
-25

MINING

INV E N TORY

80

60

40

% 20

-20 37.6
Q-O-Q
-40

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

E M P LOYMENT

70
60
50
40
30
% 20
10
0
-10
-20
0.7
Q-O-Q
-30

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

 Business Optimism Index
THAILAND
Quarter 4 2015

Not Quite Out of the Woods Yet

The overall Business Optimism Index (BOI) by Dun & just as recovery signs were increasing. Thailand’s already
Bradstreet Thailand contracted by 8% q-o-q, as survey fragile economic performance will clearly not be helped by
respondents expect dimmer prospects in Q4. The BOI score such a large-scale, international headline-making incident
sits at negative 5%, the second weakest in ASEAN after at a prime tourist site in its capital city. According to official
Malaysia. On closer reading, most parameters are anemic data, real GDP growth had already slowed to 2.8% y-o-y
with Volume of Sales and Net Profit slipping in subzero in Q2 from 3.0% in Q1. With exports declining and private
region (both at -12%) for the first time in recent years. consumption weighed down by a high debt burden and
weather conditions hurting farmer incomes, the recovering
– Volume of Sales and Net Profit dropped 14% and tourism was sector was among the few clear bright spots
11% q-o-q respectively. The outlook is clearly for the country’s economic outlook.
affected by the recent bomb attack (more below).
Consumer confidence had already been falling for The negative impact of the attack is already apparent
six straight months before this occurred, according with the tourism ministry on 26 August reporting a
to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Index. 17% decline in average daily tourist inflows to 70,000
in the days following the attack. Nonetheless in D&B’s
– Selling Price adjusted slightly downwards by 5%, view, tourist inflows should recover if, as seems likely
mainly for Services. Other sectors like Transportation, at present, the bomb attack is not part of a sustained
Finance and Mining plan to raise prices. campaign. Taking account of growing evidence of
economic downturn in its key trade partner China
– Expectations for New Orders are down by 13%, while
(arguably best evidenced by the country’s recent currency
Inventory levels will pile up by 8%. For the former,
devaluation initiative), we are thus further trimming our
sharpest drops are seen in Agriculture, Utilities and
2015 real GDP forecast to 2.5% from 2.7% previously.
Manufacturing. Rice output is already hampered by
months of drought, and export momentum has slowed.
OV ERA L L BOI S CORE CHA RT (Q4
(Q1 2014
2013 – Q4 2015 )
– Employment contracted by 8% q-o-q. Most of the 50

downsizing is expected to happen in Agriculture and 40

Real Estate. Note: Agriculture accounts for 10% of

SCORE

30
GDP and employs more than 40% of the country’s
20
population.
B OI

10

After martial law was lifted in Q2 (from 10 months of coup) 0

and with continued political stability, business expectations
-10
would have emerged out of the woods in Q4. Alas it may
Q1

Q4
Q2

Q3

Q4
Q1

Q1

Q2
Q2
Q3

Q4

Q3
Q1

Q2

Q3
Q4

Q4

have slipped deeper into it. The bomb attack on 17 August 2014 2013 2014 2015 2015
at the Erawan shrine in central Bangkok was unfortunate
 Business Optimism Index
THAILAND
Quarter 4 2015

V OLUM E OF SALES 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

120
100
80
60
40
% 20
0
-20
-40
14.0
Q-O-Q
-60

AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE SERVICES TRANSPORTATION FINANCE REAL ESTATE ALL

NE T PROF IT

120
100
80
60
40
% 20
0
-20
-40
11.0
Q-O-Q
-60

AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE SERVICES TRANSPORTATION FINANCE REAL ESTATE ALL

SE LLING PRICE

100

80

60

% 40

20

0 13.0
Q-O-Q
-20

AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE SERVICES TRANSPORTATION FINANCE REAL ESTATE ALL
 Business Optimism Index
THAILAND
Quarter 4 2015

NE W O RDERS 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

100
80
60
40
20
% 0
-20
-40
-60
13.0
Q-O-Q
-80

AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE SERVICES TRANSPORTATION FINANCE REAL ESTATE ALL

IN V E NTORY

40
30
20
10
0
% -10
-20
-30
-40
-50
8.0
Q-O-Q
-60

AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE SERVICES TRANSPORTATION FINANCE REAL ESTATE ALL

E M PLOYMENT

120
100
80
60
40
% 20
0
-20
-40
8.0
Q-O-Q
-60

AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE SERVICES TRANSPORTATION FINANCE REAL ESTATE ALL
 Business Optimism Index
VIETNAM
Quarter 4 2015

Businesses Tread Cautiously

After Rebound

According to Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Vietnam, – Inventory Level increased sharply from 4% in
businesses have maintained their optimistic streak from previous quarter to 20% this quarter, particularly for
the previous quarter, with a few minor upshoots. After the Wholesale (+34%) and Mining (+27%) sectors.
hitting a trough of 24% in Q1 2015, the overall index While there is anticipation and preparation for
regained momentum in later quarters and now reached higher demand in Q4, the growth also appears to be
45% for Q4 2015 (+2% q-o-q), nearly as high as Q4 corrective due to a precipitous drop in Q3.
2014 (47%). The largest increases are seen in Wholesale
(+12%) and Services (+9%). Construction and Finance – More tellingly, Employment ceded slightly (-2% q-o-q
still lead with the highest optimism levels (54% and and -5% y-o-y) despite rosy topline growth in Volume
50% respectively) but almost without any change. of Sales and Net Profit. This suggests that businesses
are still cautious about their expansion plans. It is
At the outset, it appears surprising that Manufacturing worth noting that on y-o-y basis, the growth in Sales
slumped -11% down to 37% this quarter despite the and Profit is relatively modest (in single digits, +4%
Industrial Production Index of 8M-2015 reporting and +9% respectively), which might not adequately
10.4% annual growth, a clear improvement from 8.1% justify business owners to increase their payroll in
of 8M-2014. This is probably due to the impact of recent next year’s budget plans.
adjustments in exchange rates, which has hit both import-
We expect that current optimism will continue to have legs
substitution and export-orientation firms. Nonetheless,
right through the coming quarter with minor lifts, given
it should be noted that optimism in Manufacturing is
recent positive signals from the local macroeconomic
still riding at record high levels, since Q4 2013.
environment and the cyclical upturn from the annual Tet
– Volumes of Sales and Net Profit are two parameters with season in Q1 2016; while being mindful of the possibility
of unfavorable exchange rate pressures. Businesses will
the highest scores (71% and 88% respectively). While
remain cautiously expansionary.
Volumes of Sales stayed flat from previous quarter, Net
Profit showed a large jump to 88% (+13%). This is the
highest level observed for this parameter since Q4 2013. OV ERA L L BOI S CORE CHA RT (Q4 2013 – Q4 2015 )
The buoyancy of Net Profit given stable Sales is led by 60 7.5
the Services, Transportation, and Wholesale sectors, 7
(%)

50
perhaps due to the recent downward trend of fuel prices. 6.5
SCORE

40 6
GROWTH

– With current inflation prevailing at low levels 30

5.5

and amid the CPI drop in August (m-o-m), it is 5

B OI

20 4.5
understandably obvious that Selling Price shrank 4
from 13% in previous quarter to 3% this quarter. 10
GDP

3.5

0 3
– On y-o-y basis, New Orders experience the largest
Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

Q4

increase (14%) while Selling Price and Inventory 2014 2015

Level suffer the largest drops (-23% and -20% Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
respectively).
 Business Optimism Index
VIETNAM
Quarter 4 2015

V OLUM E OF SALES 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

100
90
80
70
60
% 50
40
30
20
10
1.0
Q-O-Q
0

CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

NE T PROF IT

100
90
80
70
60
% 50
40
30
20
10
13.0
Q-O-Q
0

CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

SE LLING PRICE

90
80
70
60
50
40
% 30
20

10.0
10
0
-10 Q-O-Q
-20

CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

 Business Optimism Index
VIETNAM
Quarter 4 2015

NE W O RDERS 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

90
80
70
60
50
% 40
30
20
10
16.0
Q-O-Q
0

CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

INV E N TORY

80
70
60
50
40
% 30
20
10
0
5.0
Q-O-Q
-10

MANUFACTURING MINING WHOLESALE ALL

E M P LOYMENT

50
45
40
35
30
% 25
20
15
10
5
2.0
Q-O-Q
0

CONSTRUCTION FINANCE MANUFACTURING MINING SERVICES TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALE ALL

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