YPF 3Q21 Earnings Webcast Presentation FINAL.
YPF 3Q21 Earnings Webcast Presentation FINAL.
Safe harbor statement under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the “Private Securities Litigation Reform Act”).
This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements under within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.
These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management, including statements with respect to YPF’s future
financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and
reserves, as well as YPF’s plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost
savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and
marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and
other factors which may be beyond YPF’s control or may be difficult to predict.
YPF’s actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed
volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future
economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements.
Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results,
changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative,
tax, legal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and
lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in “Item 3. Key Information—Risk
Factors” and “Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects” in YPF’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2020 filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
(the “SEC”). In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur.
Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or
events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.
These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities of YPF S.A. in any jurisdiction. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration with
the SEC or an exemption from such registration.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors — The United States SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to separately disclose proved, probable and possible reserves that a company has
determined in accordance with the SEC rules. We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are
urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No. 1-12102 available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
Our estimates of EURs, included in our Development Costs, are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and accordingly are subject to substantially greater risk of
being actually realized, particularly in areas or zones where there has been limited history. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from our concessions will differ substantially.
Ultimate recoveries will be dependent upon numerous factors including actual encountered geological conditions and the impact of future oil and gas pricing.
Unless otherwise indicated, the calculation of the main financial figures in U.S. dollars is derived from the calculation of the consolidated financial results expressed in Argentine pesos using the average exchange
rate for each period. From 1Q 2019 onwards, the calculation of the main financial figures in U.S. dollars is derived from the sum of: (1) YPF S.A. individual financial results expressed in Argentine pesos divided by
the average exchange rate of the period and (2) the financial results of YPF S.A.’s subsidiaries expressed in Argentine pesos divided by the exchange rate at the end of period.
MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS 02 Strong pricing environment for Brent-related products
and natural gas, while fuel prices remained stable in dollars.
3Q21 03 Continued recovering O&G production
(+7% q/q and +17% since 4Q20).
182 -95 18 -34 1.154 (1) FCF = Cash flow from Operations less capex
(investing activities), M&A (investing activities), and
1.084 interest and leasing payments (financing activities).
(2) Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q21 includes stand-by costs
Nat. gas output Purchases Volumes Holding results for US$40 million.
(3) Downstream calculations exclude holding results
Prices OPEX Prices from crude oil at transfer price of US$(21) million in
3Q20, US$61 million in 2Q21, and US$48 million in
Fuels volumes 3Q21, which were included in Corporate & Eliminations.
(4) Adjusted EBITDA for 3Q21 includes stand-by costs
Prices for US$21 million.
Adj. EBITDA 2Q21 (2) Upstream Downstream (3) Gas & Power Corporate & (3)
Adj. EBITDA 3Q21 (4)
Eliminations
62% 56%
3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 2Q21 Shale Conventional Tight 3Q21
SHALE PRODUCTION - OPERATED Shale Oil Core Hub YPF O&G AVERAGE Crude Oil (USD/BBL)
KBBL/D & KBOE/D Shale Gas REALIZATION PRICES
Natural Gas (USD/MMBTU)
+23% / +121% 65 65,0
60,0
55,3 5,7
55,0
50,1 51,6 5,2
39 42 41 50,0
4,2 4,7
34 29 37 40,0
32 45,0
40,1 4,2
24 23
40,0
3,7
2,9
35,0
30,0
2,7 3,8 3,2
25,0
2,4 2,7
20,0 2,2
3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 YPF: No
Clasificación 3Q21
Confidencial5
Clasificación YPF: No Confidencial
SUSTAINED RAMP UP IN ACTIVITY WITH A CLEAR FOCUS ON EFFICIENCY
2019 2020 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 2019 2020 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 2019 2020 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Clasificación YPF: No Confidencial6
Clasificación YPF: No Confidencial
RAPID RECOVERY IN FUELS´ DEMAND WHILE MAINTAINING AVERAGE DOLLAR-PRICES STABLE
DOMESTIC GASOLINE SALES VERSUS 2019 3Q21 DOMESTIC DIESEL SALES VERSUS 2019
% +22% Q/Q %
-3% vs. 3Q19
2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 6%
4% 4%
3%
1%
KBBLD US$/BBL
+13%
94
284 278 275 273 266 263 86 84 85 86
232 238
192 75
69 68
66
2018 2019 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 2018 2019 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Clasificación YPF: No Confidencial7
Clasificación YPF: No Confidencial
POSITIVE FREE CASH FLOW DESPITE INCREASED CAPEX ACTIVITY
(1) Cash and equivalents at the end of 3Q21 converted to US$ using September 30, 2021 exchange rate of AR$98.64 to US$1.00. Cash and equivalents at the end of 2Q21
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF ADJUSTED CASH FLOW (1) converted to US$ using the June 30, 2021 exchange rate of AR$95.62 to US$1.00. Cash & equivalents include Argentine sovereign bonds and Treasury notes.
(2) Includes mainly payment of leasing, FX differences and net payments for financial assets.
In Million of US$ (3) Includes cash position in dollars, Sovereign bonds, FX futures in ROFEX, and peso-denominated debt.
(4) Includes long-term investments in financial assets which mature in less that 24 months.
1.086 -702
-183 55 -158
935 1,034
Cash
C&E&2Q21
equivalents
EOP Operating Cash
Operating Acquisition of PP&E Interest
Acquisition payments
Interest Net borrowing Other (2) C&E&3Q21
Cash EOP
equivalents
2Q21 – End of period FlowFlow
Cash of PP&E payments 3Q21 – End of period
Int. Bonds Local Bonds (1) As of September 30, 2021, converted to US$
CONSOLIDATED PRINCIPAL DEBT AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE (1) Foreign Bank Loans Foreign Trade Fin.
using the exchange rate of AR$98.64 to US$1.00.
Excludes IFRS 16 effects.
1,461
1,274
2022 = 826 1,036
791 818
571
504
4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030+
QUESTIONS
AND ANSWERS