Macroeconomics I: Aggregate Demand I: Building The IS-LM Model
Macroeconomics I: Aggregate Demand I: Building The IS-LM Model
Chapter 11
Aggregate Demand I: Building the IS-LM Model
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1. INTRODUCTION
1 Introduction
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1. INTRODUCTION
In 1936, the British economist John Maynard Keynes revolutionized economics with his book The General
Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
– Keynes proposed a new way to analyze the economy, which he presented as an alternative to classical
theory.
– Keynes proposed that low aggregate demand is responsible for the low income/output and high unem-
ployment that characterize economic downturns.
He criticized classical theory for assuming that aggregate supply alone— capital, labor, and technology—
determines national income.
Economists today reconcile these two views with the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply
introduced in Chapter 10.
In the long run, prices are ‡exible, and aggregate supply determines income.
But in the short run, prices are sticky, so changes in aggregate demand in‡uence income.
– In 2008 and 2009, as the United States and Europe descended into a recession, the Keynesian theory of
the business cycle was often in the news.
Policymakers around the world debated how best to increase aggregate demand and put their economies
on the road to recovery.
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2. THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS CURVE
The IS curve plots the relationship between the interest rate r and the level of income/output Y that
arises in the market for goods and services.
– To develop this relationship, we start with a basic model called the Keynesian cross— it is a building
block for the IS curve.
The Keynesian cross (due to John Maynard Keynes) show that in the short run, income is determined
by expenditure (i.e., aggregate demand):
The more people want to spend, the more goods and services …rms can sell. The more …rms can
sell, the more output they will choose to produce and the more workers they will choose to hire.
We begin our derivation of the Keynesian cross by drawing a distinction between "actual" and "planned"
expenditure.
1. Actual expenditure is the amount households, …rms, and the government spend on goods and services—
as we …rst saw in Chapter 2, it equals the economy’s gross domestic product (GDP).
2. Planned expenditure is the amount households, …rms, and the government "would like to" spend on
goods and services.
Why would actual expenditure ever di¤er from planned expenditure?
– The answer is that …rms might engage in "unplanned" inventory investment because their sales do
not meet their expectations.
When …rms sell less of their product than they planned, their stock of inventories automatically rises;
conversely, when …rms sell more than planned, their stock of inventories falls.
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2. THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS CURVE
– Because these unplanned changes in inventory are counted as "actual" investment spending by …rms,
actual expenditure can be either above or below planned expenditure:
Actual Expenditure Planned Expenditure = Unplanned Inventory Investment
Now 290
we| consider the determinants of "planned" expenditure— assuming that the economy is closed, so
Business Cycle Theory: The Economy in the Short Run
PA R T I V
−
I=I
I = I.
Finally, as in Chapter 3, we assume that fiscal policy—the levels of government
3. Government policy
purchases variables
and taxes—is fixed: are exogenous:
−,
G =G
−.
G=G and T = T
T =T
Combining these five equations, we obtain
Thus, the planned-expenditure function
− ) + I− + G
PE = C(Y − T −. can be written as:
This equation shows that planned expenditure is a function of income Y, the
PE = C Y
level of planned investment I−, and the fiscal policy variables G
− and T
−. T +I +G (2.1)
Figure 10-2 graphs planned expenditure as a function of the level of income.
This line slopes upward because higher income leads to higher consumption and
– A one-unit increase in income Y causes consumption— and therefore planned expenditure P E — to increase
byF I Gthe 0 < M P C < 1.
URE 10-2
Income, output, Y
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planned expenditure. This assumption is based on the idea that when people’s
2. THE GOODS MARKET
plans ANDrealized,
have been THE ISthey
CURVE
have no reason to change what they are doing.
Recalling that Y as GDP equals not only total income but also total actual
expenditure on goods and services, we can write this equilibrium condition as
The Keynesian cross assumes that the economy is in equilibrium when actual expenditure Y equals
Actual Expenditure = Planned Expenditure
planned expenditure P E :
Y = PE.
The 45-degree line in Figure 10-3 plots the points where|{z} Y condition=holds. |{z}
this PE (2.2)
With the addition of the planned-expenditure function, actualthis
expenditure planned expenditure
diagram becomes
the Keynesian cross. The equilibrium of this economy is at point A, where the
Noteplanned-expenditure
that Y as GDP equals
function crossesnot only total
the 45-degree line. income but also total actual expenditure on goods and services.
How does the economy get to equilibrium? In this model, inventories play an
– This assumption
important is based
role in the adjustment process.on the idea
Whenever that iswhen
an economy people’s plans have been realized, they have no
not in equi-
librium, firms experience unplanned
reason to change what they are doing. changes in inventories, and this induces
them to change production levels. Changes in production in turn influence total
– income
This and expenditure,
condition moving
can the economy toward
be represented by equilibrium.
the 45-degree line in a diagram for the Keynesian cross below.
For example, suppose the economy finds itself with GDP at a level greater
thanEquations
Thus, the equilibrium level,and
(2:1) such (2:2)
as the level Y1 in Figure
become 10-4. In this case,
the Keynesian cross.
planned expenditure PE1 is less than production Y1, so firms are selling less than
– The equilibrium of this economy is at point A, where the planned-expenditure function crosses the 45-
degree line.
FIGURE 10-3
Expenditure The Keynesian Cross The
(Planned, PE Actual expenditure,
equilibrium in the Keynesian
Actual, Y) Y PE
cross is the point at which
income (actual expenditure)
Planned expenditure, equals planned expenditure
A PE C I G (point A).
45º
Income, output, Y
Equilibrium
income
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2. THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS CURVE
This process of unintended inventory accumulation and falling income continues until income Y falls
to the equilibrium level.
FIGURE 10-4
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2. THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS CURVE
In summary, the Keynesian cross shows how income Y is determined for given levels of planned investment I
and …scal policy G and T .
– We can use this model to show how income changes when one of these exogenous variables
changes.
First, we consider how changes in government purchases a¤ect the economy.
– Because G are one component of expenditure, – We can solve for Y:
higher government purchases result in higher
Y = C+I +G
planned expenditure for any given level of income,
thereby shifting the planned-expenditure schedule Y = C+ I+ G
upward. Y = MP C ( Y T) + I+ G
So, the equilibrium of the economy moves from Y = MP C Y + G
point A to point B (How?). Y = 1= (1 M P C) G
| {z }
the government-purchases multiplier>1
– This graph shows that an increase in govern-
ment purchases leads to an even greater in- If M P C = 0:8, 1= (1
AggregateM P C)
Demand I: Building
CHAPTER 10 : an
=the5IS–LM Model in-
| 293
crease in income: that is, Y is larger than crease in G causes income Y to increase 5
G. times as much.
FIGURE 10-5
If M P C = 0:8, M P C= (1 M P C) = 4:
a $1:00 cut in taxes raises equilibrium income
by $4:00. 45º
Income,
Y
output, Y
– So the tax multiplier has the following:
PE1 Y1 2. ...which increases PE2 Y2
equilibrium income.
1. It is negative:
A tax cut increases C , which raises Y .
Just as an increase in government purchases has a multiplied effect on income, Page: 9
2. THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS CURVE
Finally, we consider the e¤ects of an increase in planned investment on the equilibrium level of income/output—
note that I is assumed to be exogenous at a …xed level I .
ANSWERS
Practice with the Keynesian cross
– An increase in planned investment shifts the planned-expenditure schedule upward by I.
PE
At Y1, PE =C +I2 +G
there is now an
unplanned drop PE =C +I1 +G
in inventory…
I
…so firms
increase output,
and income Y
rises toward a
new equilibrium. PE1 = Y1 Y PE2 = Y2
18
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2. THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS CURVE
2. We combine this investment function with the Keynesian-cross diagram to determine how
income Y changes when the interest rate r changes.
An increase in the interest rate from r1 to r2 reduces the quantity of investment from I (r1 ) to I (r2 ).
The reduction in planned investment, in turn, shifts the planned-expenditure function downward,
thereby causing the level of income to fall from Y1 to Y2 .
r " ) I # ) PE # ) Y #
– Thus, the IS curve summarizes this relationship between the interest rate and the level of income:
IS : Y =C Y T + I (r) + G (2.3)
"Each" point on the IS curve represents "equilibrium" in the goods market, and the curve illustrates
how the equilibrium level of income depends on the interest rate.
Because an increase in the interest rate causes planned investment to fall, which in turn causes
equilibrium income to fall, the IS curve slopes downward.
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2. THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS CURVE
FIGURE 10-7
Deriving the IS Curve Panel (a) shows (b) The Keynesian Cross
the investment function: an increase in Expenditure
the interest rate from r1 to r2 reduces
planned investment from I(r1) to I(r2). 3. ...which Actual
Panel (b) shows the Keynesian cross: a shifts planned expenditure
decrease in planned investment from expenditure
I(r1) to I(r2) shifts the planned-expendi- downward ...
ture function downward and thereby
reduces income from Y1 to Y2. Panel (c) Planned
shows the IS curve summarizing this rela-
I expenditure
tionship between the interest rate and
income: the higher the interest rate, the
lower the level of income.
45º
Y2 Y1 Income, output, Y
4. ...and lowers
income.
trates how the equilibrium level of income depends on the interest rate. Because
an increase in the interest rate causes planned investment to fall, which in turn
causes equilibrium income to fall, the IS curve slopes downward.
The IS curve can also be derived from the (hopefully now familiar) loanable funds model from chapter 3:
S = I (r)
where
S=Y C Y T G
Now we can see where the IS curve gets its name: When the loanable funds market is in equilibrium,
investment (I ) equals saving (S).
Thus, the IS curve shows all combinations of r and Y such that investment equals saving.
The IS curve and the loanable funds model
r S2 S1 r
r2 r2
r1 r1
I (r )
IS
S, I Y2 Y1 Y
The IS curve shows us the level of income Y that brings the goods market into equilibrium for any given
interest rate r.
– As we learned from the Keynesian cross, the equilibrium level of income also depends on government
spending G and taxes T .
This means that when …scal policy (G or T ) changes, the IS curve shifts.
The …gure uses the Keynesian cross to show how an increase 300
in |government
Business Cyclepurchases
Theory: The Economy(or
PA R T I V in the a cut
Short Run in taxes) shifts
the IS curve— the …gure is drawn for a given interest rate r and thus for a given level of planned investment
I (r). FIGURE 10-8
ment purchases (or a cut in taxes) shifts the IS (b) The IS Curve
curve outward. Interest rate, r
IS2
IS1
Y1 Y2 Income, output, Y
and thus for a given level of planned investment. The Keynesian cross in panel
(a) shows that this change in fiscal policy raises planned expenditure and there-
by increases equilibrium income from Y1 to Y2. Therefore, in panel (b), the
increase in government purchases shifts the IS curve outward.
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We can use the Keynesian cross to see how other changes in fiscal policy shift
2. THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS CURVE
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3. THE MONEY MARKET AND THE LM CURVE
The LM curve plots the relationship between the interest rate r and the level of income Y that arises
in the market for money balances.
– To understand this relationship, we begin by looking at a theory of the interest rate, called the theory of
liquidity preference— it is a building block for the LM curve.
In his classic work The General Theory, John Maynard Keynes o¤ered his view that in the short run,
the interest rate is determined to balance the supply and demand for the economy’s most liquid asset,
that is, money— it is called the theory of liquidity preference.
The liquidity preference theory assumes that there is a …xed supply of real money balances. So the supply for
real money balances can be written as:
M s M
= (3.1)
P P
where we assume that the money supply M is an exogenous policy variable chosen by a central bank (i.e.,
M = M ) and the price level P is also an exogenous variable at a …xed level in the short run (i.e., P = P ).
The liquidity preference theory posits that the interest rate is one determinant of how much money people
choose to hold. So the demand for real money balances can! be written as:
d
M
=L i
|{z}
P
– The (nominal) interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money. Thus, when the interest rate rises,
people want to hold less of their wealth in the form of money.
It is what you forgo by holding some of your assets as money, which does not bear interest, instead of
as interest-bearing bank deposits or bonds.
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3. THE MONEY MARKET AND THE LM CURVE
– The nominal interest rate is the sum of the real interest rate and the expected in‡ation rate: i = r + e.
i=r
Thus, the demand for real money balances can be rewritten as:
!
d
M
=L r
|{z} (3.2)
P
Therefore, the theory of liquidity preference tells us that the supply and demand for real money balances
determine what interest rate prevails in the economy:
M
= L (r) (3.3)
P
302 | PA R T I V Business Cycle Theory: The Economy in the Short Run
– That is, the interest rate adjusts to equilibrate the money market.
FIGURE 10-9
where the function L( ) shows that the quantity of money demanded depends
on the interest rate. The demand curve in Figure 10-9 slopes downward because Page: 17
5
3. THE MONEY MARKET AND THE LM CURVE
Now that we have seen how the interest rate is determined, we can use the theory of liquidity preference to
show how the interest rate responds to changes in the supply of money.
– Suppose, for instance, that the Fed suddenly decreases the money supply M . Then, a fall in M reduces
(M=P )s , because P is …xed in the model, thereby shifting the supply of real money balances to the left.
The equilibrium interest rate rises and the higher interest rate makes people satis…ed to hold the smaller
quantity of real money 0 Aggregate Demand I: Building the IS–LM Model | 303
C H A P T E R 1balances:
s
M
M #) # ) r " to restore equilibrium
P
FIGURE 10-10
r1
2. ... raises
the interest L(r)
rate.
M2/P M1/P Real money
balances, M/P
the interest rate reaches the equilibrium level, at which people are content with
their portfolios of monetary and nonmonetary assets.
Now that we have seen how the interest rate is determined, we can use the
theory of liquidity preference to show how the interest rate responds to changes
in the supply of money. Suppose, for instance, that the Fed suddenly decreases the
money supply. A fall in M reduces M/P, because P is fixed in the model. The sup-
ply of real money balances shifts to the left, as in Figure 10-10. The equilibrium Page: 18
3. THE MONEY MARKET AND THE LM CURVE
where the quantity of real money balances demanded is positively related to income (as well as nega-
tively related to the interest rate): when income is high, expenditure is high, so people engage in more
transactions that require greater money demand.
2. Using the theory of liquidity preference, we can …gure out what happens to the equilibrium interest
rate when the level of income changes, say, increases from Y1 to Y2 .
This increase in income shifts the money demand curve to the right. With the supply of real money
balances unchanged ( (M=P )s = M =P ), the interest rate must rise from r1 to r2 to equilibrate the
money market:
Y " ) L (r; Y ) " ) r "
– Thus, the LM curve summarizes this relationship between the level of income and the interest
rate:
LM : M =P = L (r; Y ) (3.4)
"Each" point on the LM curve represents "equilibrium" in the money market, and the curve illustrates
how the equilibrium interest rate depends on the level of income.
The higher the level of income, the higher the demand for real money balances, and the higher the
equilibrium interest rate. For this reason, the LM curve slopes upward.
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3. THE MONEY MARKET AND THE LM CURVE
FIGURE 10-11
(a) The Market for Real Money Balances (b) The LM Curve
Interest rate, r Interest
rate, r LM
1. An increase in
income raises
money demand, ...
r2 r2
3. The LM curve
summarizes
L(r, Y2) these changes in
r1 r1
the money market
L(r, Y1) equilibrium.
2. ...
increasing
the interest M/P Real money Y1 Y2 Income, output, Y
rate. balances, M/P
Deriving the LM Curve Panel (a) shows the market for real money balances: an
increase in income from Y1 to Y2 raises the demand for money and thus raises the
interest rate from r1 to r2. Panel (b) shows the LM curve summarizing this relation-
ship between the interest rate and income: the higher the level of income, the higher
the interest rate.
the equilibrium interest rate depends on the level of income. The higher the
level of income, the higher the demand for real money balances, and the higher
the equilibrium interest rate. For this reason, the LM curve slopes upward.
The LM curve tells us the interest rate r that equilibrates the money market at "any" level of income Y .
– Yet as we saw earlier, the equilibrium interest rate also depends on the supply of real money balances
(M=P )s .
This means that when the central bank changes the money supply M , the LM curve shifts.
If the central bank reduces the money supply from M1 to M2 , what happens to the equilibrium interest rate
associated with a given value of income.
306 | PART IV Business Cycle Theory: The Economy in the Short Run
– Holding constant the amount of income and thus the demand curve for real money balances, reduction
in the supply of real money balances raises the interest rate that equilibrates the money market. So, the
LM curve
FIGURE shifts upward.
10-12
(a) The Market for Real Money Balances (b) The LM Curve
Interest rate, r Interest
rate, r LM2
LM1
1. The Fed
r2 reduces r2
the money 3. ... and
2. ... supply, ... shifting the
raising r1 r1 LM curve
the interest upward.
rate ... L(r, Y)
M2/P M1/P Real money Y Income, output, Y
balances,
M/P
A Reduction in the Money Supply Shifts the LM Curve Upward Panel (a)
−
shows that for any given level of income Y, a reduction in the money supply raises
the interest rate that equilibrates the money market. Therefore, the LM curve in
panel (b) shifts upward.
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3. THE MONEY MARKET AND THE LM CURVE
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4. CONCLUSION: THE SHORT-RUN EQUILIBRIUM
The IS–LM model shows how the interest rate r and the level of income Y are determined in the
short run.
– The equilibrium of the economy is the point at which the IS curve and the LM curve cross— at this
intersection, actual expenditure equals planned expenditure, and the demand for real money balances
equals the supply:
IS : Y =C Y T + I (r) + G
(4.1)
LM : M =P = L (r; Y )
C H A P T E R 1 0 Aggregate Demand I: Building the IS–LM Model | 307
That is, the short-run equilibrium is the combination of r and Y that simultaneously satis…es the
equilibrium conditions in "both" the goods market and the money market.
FIGURE 10-13
IS
In this chapter we developed the Keynesian cross and the theory of liquidity
preference as building blocks for the IS–LM model. As we see more fully in
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the next chapter, the IS–LM model helps explain the position and slope of
money balances for given val-
4. CONCLUSION: Equilibrium
THE SHORT-RUN EQUILIBRIUM ues of government spending,
interest taxes, the money supply, and
rate the price level.
As we conclude this chapter, let’s recall that our ultimate goal in developing the IS–LM model is to analyze
short-run ‡uctuations in economic activity.
IS
– Figure 14 illustrates how the di¤erent pieces of our theory …t together.
1. In this chapter we developed
Equilibrium level the Keynesian
Income, output, Y cross and the theory of liquidity preference as building
blocks for the IS–
ofLM
income model.
2. As we see more fully in the next chapter, the IS–LM model helps explain the position and slope of the
aggregate demand curve.
In this chapter we developed the Keynesian cross and the theory of liquidity
preference as building blocks for the IS–LM model. As we see more fully in
3. The aggregate demand curve, in turn, is a piece ofthe model of aggregate supply and aggregate
the next chapter, the IS–LM model helps explain the position and slope of
demand, which economists use to explain the short-run e¤ects of policy changes and other events on
national income.
FIGURE 10-14
Keynesian
IS Curve
Cross
Aggregate
IS–LM Demand
Model Curve Model of
Aggregate Explanation
Theory of
Supply and of Short-Run
Liquidity LM Curve
Aggregate Economic
Preference
Demand Fluctuations
Aggregate
Supply
Curve
The Theory of Short-Run Fluctuations This schematic diagram shows how the differ-
ent pieces of the theory of short-run fluctuations fit together. The Keynesian cross explains
the IS curve, and the theory of liquidity preference explains the LM curve. The IS and
LM curves together yield the IS–LM model, which explains the aggregate demand curve.
The aggregate demand curve is part of the model of aggregate supply and aggregate
demand, which economists use to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity.
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