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Probabilties and Chi Square Test

This document discusses Mendelian inheritance and probability, including: 1) Calculating phenotypic ratios and fractions of progeny with certain traits using the rules of probability, including the product rule, sum rule, and binomial expansion equation. 2) How the chi-square test can be used to determine if observed data fits a hypothesized genetic ratio by calculating expected and observed values. 3) Examples that apply these probability calculations and the chi-square test to study inheritance patterns in Drosophila crosses and determine if traits assort independently.

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Harsh Vardhan Singh Shekhawat
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33 views

Probabilties and Chi Square Test

This document discusses Mendelian inheritance and probability, including: 1) Calculating phenotypic ratios and fractions of progeny with certain traits using the rules of probability, including the product rule, sum rule, and binomial expansion equation. 2) How the chi-square test can be used to determine if observed data fits a hypothesized genetic ratio by calculating expected and observed values. 3) Examples that apply these probability calculations and the chi-square test to study inheritance patterns in Drosophila crosses and determine if traits assort independently.

Uploaded by

Harsh Vardhan Singh Shekhawat
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 14

Mendelian Inheritance

& Probability

(CHAPTER 2- Brooker Text)

January 31 & Feb 2, 2006


BIO 184
Dr. Tom Peavy

1
Problem Solving

TtYy x ttyy

What is the expected phenotypic ratio


among offspring?

2
Tt RR x Tt RR

What fraction of the progeny will be


Tall and Round?

(pg 38)

3
Alternative = Forked Line Method

Tt RR Yy x Tt RR Yy

What fraction of the progeny will be


Tall, Round, and Green?

4
PROBABILITY

• Probability calculations are used in genetic problems


to predict the outcome of crosses

• To compute probability, we can use three


mathematical operations
– Product rule
– Sum rule
– Binomial expansion equation

Product rule
• The probability that two or more independent
events will occur is equal to the product of
their respective probabilities

• Note
– Independent events are those in which the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability
of another

• What are the odds of 3 heads in a row?

5
Sum rule
• The probability that one of two or more mutually
exclusive events will occur is the sum of their
respective probabilities

• What are the odds of rolling a 3 on a single die?

• What are the odds of rolling a 3 or a 4 on a single


die?

Binomial Expansion Equation


• Represents all of the possibilities for a given
set of unordered events
n!
P= px qn – x
x! (n – x)!
• where
– P = probability that the unordered number of events will occur
– n = total number of events
– x = number of events in one category
– p = individual probability of x
– q = individual probability of the other category

6
• Note:
– p+q=1
– The symbol ! denotes a factorial
• n! is the product of all integers from n down to 1
– 4! = 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 = 24
– An exception is 0! = 1

• Question
– Two heterozygous brown-eyed (Bb) individuals have
five children
– What is the probability that two of the couple’s five
children will have blue eyes?

The Chi Square Test


• A statistical method used to determine
goodness of fit
– Goodness of fit refers to how close the observed
data are to those predicted from a hypothesis

• Note:
– The chi square test does not prove that a
hypothesis is correct
• It evaluates whether or not the data and the hypothesis
have a good fit

7
The Chi Square Test

• The general formula is

(O – E)2
χ2 = Σ
E

• where
O = observed data in each category
E = observed data in each category based on the
experimenter’s hypothesis
Σ = Sum of the calculations for each category

• Consider the following example in Drosophila


melanogaster
• Gene affecting wing shape • Gene affecting body color
– c+ = Normal wing – e+ = Normal (gray)
– c = Curved wing – e = ebony
• Note:
– The wild-type allele is designated with a + sign
– Recessive mutant alleles are designated with lowercase
letters

• The Cross:
– A cross is made between two true-breeding flies (c+c+e+e+
and ccee). The flies of the F1 generation are then allowed
to mate with each other to produce an F2 generation.

8
• The outcome
– F1 generation
• All offspring have straight wings and gray bodies
– F2 generation
• 193 straight wings, gray bodies
• 69 straight wings, ebony bodies
• 64 curved wings, gray bodies
• 26 curved wings, ebony bodies
• 352 total flies

• Applying the chi square test


– Step 1: Propose a hypothesis that allows us to calculate
the expected values based on Mendel’s laws
• The two traits are independently assorting

– Step 2: Calculate the expected values of the four


phenotypes, based on the hypothesis

– Step 3: Apply the chi square formula

(O1 – E1)2 (O2 – E2)2 (O3 – E3)2 (O4 – E4)2


χ2 = + + +
E1 E2 E3 E4

9
• Step 4: Interpret the chi square value
– The calculated chi square value can be used to obtain
probabilities, or P values, from a chi square table
• These probabilities allow us to determine the likelihood that the
observed deviations are due to random chance alone

– Low chi square values indicate a high probability that the


observed deviations could be due to random chance alone
– High chi square values indicate a low probability that the
observed deviations are due to random chance alone

– If the chi square value results in a probability that is less


than 0.05 (ie: less than 5%)
• The hypothesis is rejected

• Step 4: Interpret the chi square value

– Before we can use the chi square table, we have to


determine the degrees of freedom (df)
• The df is a measure of the number of categories that are
independent of each other
• df = n – 1
– where n = total number of categories
• In our experiment, there are four phenotypes/categories
– Therefore, df = 4 – 1 = 3

– Refer to Table 2.1

10
2-75

Human Genetics &


Pedigrees

11
12
Huntington Disease: studies of a Venezuelan family

13
Inheritance of Cystic Fibrosis

14

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