SOM Combined
SOM Combined
1
What is a Product?
A Product is anything that can be offered to a
market for attention, acquisition, use, or
consumption and that might satisfy a want or need.
Includes:
n Physical Objects
n Services
n Events
n Persons
n Places
n Organizations
n Ideas
n Combinations of the above 2
What is a Service?
A Service is a form of product that consist of
activities, benefits, or satisfactions offered for sale
that are essentially intangible and do not result in
the ownership of anything.
Examples include:
n Banking
n Hotels
n Tax Preparation
n Home Repair Services
3
Products, Services, and
Experiences
Tangible Good Service
Pure With Hybrid With Pure
Tangible Accompanying Offer Accompanying Service
Good Services Minor Goods
4
Levels of Product
Augmented Product
Installation
Packaging
Brand Features
Name Core After-
Delivery
Benefit or Sale
& Credit
Quality Service Design
Service
Level
Warranty
Capital
Items
Supplies
and
Services
7
Product Classifications
Other Marketable Entities
Activities undertaken to create, maintain, or
change the attitudes and behavior toward the
following:
n Organizations - Profit (businesses) and nonprofit
(schools and churches).
n Persons – Politicians, entertainers, sports figures,
doctors and lawyers. Place
Marketing:
Vacation spots
n
campaigns, environmental campaigns, and others
such as family planning, or human rights. 8
Individual Product Decisions
Product Attributes
Branding
Labeling
Packaging
Product Support Services
9
Product Attributes
Developing a Product or Service Involves Defining
the Benefits that it Will Offer Such as:
Ability of a Product to Perform
Product Quality Its Functions; Includes Level &
Consistency
Help to Differentiate the Product
Product Features
from Those of the Competition
10
This Land-O-Lakes ad shows the depth of the brand.
Branding
Consistency Quality & Value
11
Major Branding Decisions
Brand Sponsor
Manufacturer’s Brand
Private Brand
Licensed Brand
Co-branding
Brand Strategy
Line Extensions
Brand Extensions
Multibrands
New Brands
12
Four Brand Strategies
Product Category
Existing New
13
Brand Strategy
Line Extension
n Existing brand names extended to new forms, sizes,
and flavors of an existing product category.
Brand Extension
n Existing brand names extended to new or modified
product categories.
Multibrands
n New brand names introduced in the same product
category.
New Brands
n New brand names in new product categories.
14
Discussion Connections
List as many specific examples as you can find of
each of the following:
n brand licensing,
n co-branding,
n line extensions, and
n brand extensions.
Can you find a single brand that has done all of
these?
Pick and describe a familiar brand that has been
widely extended. What are the benefits and
dangers for this specific brand?
15
This business-to-business ad offers to provide
ecologically sound packaging.
Packaging
become known by their
packaging:
•Cracker Jacks?
•Capri Sun?
Printed information
appearing on or with the
package.
Performs several functions:
n Identifies product or brand
n Describes several things
about the product
n Promotes the product
through attractive graphics.
17
Product - Support Services
Companies should design its support services to
profitably meet the needs of target customers and
gain competitive advantage.
How?
Step 1. Survey customers to assess the value of
current services and to obtain ideas for new
services.
Step 2. Assess costs of providing desired services.
Step 3. Develop a package of services to delight
customers and yield profits to the company.
18
Product Line Decisions
Product Line Length
Number of Items in the Product Line
Stretching Filling
Lengthen beyond Lengthen within
current range current range
Downward
Two-Way
Upward
19
Product Mix Decisions
Width - number of
different product
lines
Consistency
Reference Book :
Service Management for Competitive Advantage
James &Mona Fitzsimmons
www.howbankswork.com/1.1.html
www.customerservicezone.com
Learning Objectives
Goods Producing
Hospitality
Beauty Treatment
Laundry
Agriculture
Extractive Repair & Maintenance
Mining
Child – Day Care
Fishing
Forestry
11/7/21 oisi_N1 3
Stages of Economic Development
Features
Pre- Use of Standard
dominant human Unit of of living
Society Game activity labor social life measure Structure Technology
Pre- Against Agriculture Raw Extended Sub- Routine Simple hand
Industrial Nature Mining muscle household sistence Traditional tools
Fishery power Authoritative
industrial, consumer
durables, FMCG, military
Sectors of Economy : Manufacturing
• Trade Services
Ø Retailing • Public Administration
Ø Maintenance Ø Education
Ø Repairs Ø Government
– Water
– Electricity
• Infrastructure Services
Ø Communication
Ø Transportation
Ø Rail/Road Network
Ø Airline Services
Services Required by Manufacturing Sector
Significance & Role of Sectors in Nations Economy
Significance & Role of Sectors in Nations Economy
52
30
18
% Contribution of Various Sectors to Indian Economy
Customer Participation
Passive Active
! Entrepreneurial Innovation
! Capitalizing on Social Trends
! Management Challenges
Economies of Scale (MRI scanner)
Economies of Scope(Convenience store)
Complexity (Yield Management)
Boundary Crossing (Bank vs Brokerage)
International Competitiveness(Diversity)
Discussion Topics
4
Service Process
5
Products, Services, and Experiences
Tangible Good Service
Pure With Hybrid With Pure
Tangible Accompanying Offer Accompanying Service
Good Services Minor Goods
6
Bundle of Goods & Services
7
Bundle of Goods & Services
8
Nature and Characteristic of a
Service
Can’t be seen, tasted, felt, heard,
Intangibility or smelled before purchase.
Can’t be separated from service
Inseparability providers. Customer participation
in service process
12
Nature and Characteristic of a
Service
Perishability: Not Inventoriable
n Since services are deeds, performances or acts whose
production and consumption takes place simultaneously,
they tend to perish in the absence of consumption.
n Services go waste if they are not consumed, they cannot be
returned or resold
n Matching the demand side with supply is a major challenge
in services
13
Nature and Characteristic of a
Service
Customer Participation: A Part of Production
n Customer participation is the key to production of service
and is in the form of cooperation
Variability: Lack of Standardization
n Service experience tends to vary with customer, time and
firm
n Service delivery and customer satisfaction depend on
employee actions
n Service quality depends on many uncontrollable factors
14
Nature Of The Service Activity
17
Distinctive Features of Service Operations
Low High
of Interaction
Retailing Doctors
Wholeselling/ Distribution Lawyers
High
Education in schools Chartered Accountants
Retail Banking Security
More … Architects
Schmenner Service
Process Matrix
(Service
Classification)
Strategic Service Classification
(Nature of the Service Act & Recipient of Service)
Education Banking
Intangible actions Broadcasting Legal services
Information services Accounting
Theaters Securities
Museums Insurance
Strategic Service Classification
(Nature of the Service Act & Recipient of Service)
Personal loans
Electricity Insurance
Peak demand can Telephone Legal services
usually be met Police emergency Banking
without a major delay Hospital maternity unit Laundry and dry cleaning
Internet
Greater Service
Value
36
Open Systems View of Service
Operations
Service Process Consumer Evaluation
Consumer arrivals Consumer participant departures Criteria
(input) Consumer-Provider ( output) Measurement
interface
Control Monitor
Service package
Supporting facility
Communicate Facilitating goods Basis of
by advertising Explicit services selection
Implicit services
Challenges in Operations
• Innovation (lack of simulation for pre testing concept)
• Using available information to generate revenue
• Demographic changes
– “DINKS”
– Nuclear, 2 income families
• Deregulation
– “Open” skies
– Private life Insurance companies
– External / International Competition
• Disappearing boundaries between products & services
• “Marketing” Service
• “Industrialising” a Service Operation without losing
element of personal touch
The Operational Challenges :1
Industrialised Service Personalised Service
• Introducing “personal” element • Managing QCD
• Conducive environment • Skill Upgradation of people
• Differentiation • Labors relations
• Staying within SOPs • Employee Loyalty
! Facilitating Goods
! Information
! Explicit Services
! Implicit Services
Village Volvo’s Distinctive
Service Characteristics
! Intangibility
! Perishability
! Heterogeneity
! Simultaneity
! Facilitating Goods
! Information
! Explicit Services
! Implicit Services
Xpresso Lube’s Distinctive
Service Characteristics
! Intangibility
! Perishability
! Heterogeneity
! Simultaneity
2. Competitive Environment of
Services
2. Competitive Environment of Services
Porter’s 5
Forces Model
Porter’s 5
Forces Model:
ITeS
2. Competitive Environment of Services
• Cost Leadership
* “You can differentiate Anything.” Read Chapter on
• Differentiation* Differentiation in “Marketing Imagination”by
Theodore Levitt
• Market Focus
And/ Or •Q
•C
•D
Market Focus
Segment
America West Airlines
Competitive Features
! Service Qualifiers:
! Service Winners:
! Service Losers:
America West Airlines
Strategic Service Concept
! Delivery System:
! Location:
! Facility Design:
! Capacity Planning
America West Airlines
Strategic Service Concept (cont.)
! Service Encounter:
! Quality:
! Information:
America West Airlines
Positioning
CABIN SERVICE
Full Service
PREFLIGHT SERVICE
Inconvenient Convenient
No Amenities
Mrs. Fields Strategic Use of
Information
Strategic Focus Competitive Use of Information
On-line Off-line
(Real time) (Analysis)
Creation of barriers to entry: Data base asset:
External
(Customer)
! Disadvantages
Mrs. Fields Questions
FOOD QUALITY
Good
MOVIE SELECTION
Few Many
Poor
Alamo Drafthouse Strategic
Service Vision
! Target market segments
! Service concept
! Operating strategy
! Service winners
! Service losers
Alamo Drafthouse Profitability
Recommendations
!
!
Discussion Topics
Tea
Suppliers, • Idea generation
n
ms
ga
• Concept
• Marketing program development
design and testing Product - Validation and
• Personnel training testing
• Service testing and
pilot run
Technology Systems
• Test marketing
Tools
Analysis
Design • Business plan
• Business analysis (I&E)
• Project authorization
• Project approval
New Service Development Cycle
New Service Development Cycle
New Service Development Cycle
New Service Development Cycle
New Service Development : Steps
1. Location
2. Facility Design
3. Work Instructions, SOPs
4. QC Methods
5. Extent of Customer Involvement
6. Selecting Equipment, Instruments
7. Capacity Calculations
8. Level of “Standardization / Customization”
9. Voice of Customer (Feedback Loops )
10. Financials (Break Even Sales / Pay back period)
11. Critical Success factors
12. Project Calendar
Strategic Positioning Through Process Structure
! Customer Contact
• Degree of customer contact (% of service time
customer is present)
• Separation of high and low contact operations
• Sales opportunity v/s Service delivery
! Information Empowerment (Using IT)
• Information is major contributor of value generation
• Empowering employees (Database management)
• Empowering customers (On line booking, complaint
logging)
Capacity Cost Trade Off
Cost
Combined Cost
Cost of Service
Cost of Waiting
Capacity to Serve
Drivers of Service Innovation
! Financial pressures or increased competition to decrease
costs, increase efficiency
! The changing economy
! Stricter government regulations
! Need for sustainable development
! Shorter product life cycles
! Community and social expectations and pressures
! Demographic, social, and market changes
! Rising customer expectations regarding service and quality
! Greater availability of potentially useful and inexpensive new
technologies
! New ideas from customers, strategic partners, and employees
Levels of Service Innovation
Y
Repeat? Get History
N
Schedule Call with Deput a Senior
Customer Person/ Engineer
Visit Customer or
Repair in w/shop
Order / Get Parts
Y
Call for Help or N
N
Deput a Senior Need Parts? Repair OK?
Person / Engineer Update History File
Y
Railway reservation
Convention/Seminar
Low High
Motel Diversity of Service Delivered
Current A/c
SB A/c
College Admissions
Immunisation Drives
Lo-End product Repair
Low
Service Blue Print
Limit to Four Choices Entree (15 choices) Expand to 20 Choices: Add Flaming Dishes;
Bone Fish at Table; Prepare Sauces at Table
Sundae Bar: Self-service Dessert (6 choices) Expand to 12 Choices
Coffee, Tea, Milk only Beverage (6 choices) Add Exotic Coffees; Sherbet between
Serve Salad & Entree Together: SERVE ORDERS Courses; Hand Grind Pepper
Bill and Beverage Together
Cash only: Pay when Leaving COLLECT PAYMENT Choice of Payment. Including House Accounts:
Serve Mints
Taxonomy of Service Processes
Low divergence High divergence
(standardized service) (customized service)
Processing Processing Processing Processing Processing Processing
of goods Information of people of goods Information of people
Dry Check Auto repair Computer
No Cleaning processing Tailoring a programming
Customer Restocking Billing for a suit Designing a
Contact a vending credit card building
machine
Ordering Supervision
Indirect groceries of a landing
customer from a home by an air
contact computer controller
CONVEYOR
BELT
CONVERSATION AREA
TAKE-OUT
POSITION
ENTRANCE = CHEF
100 Yen Sushi House Service Package
! Supporting Facility
! Facilitating Goods
! Information
! Explicit Service
! Implicit Service
INTERACTIVE CLASS EXERCISE
Service
Efficiency v/s Autonomy Organization
(Empowerment)
Training of Employee Standardized v/s Personalized Service
Service delivery Efficiency v/s satisfaction
Service scape
system
Employee /Contact
Customer
Personnel Perceived
control
(Extent of
Domination)
The Service Encounter Triad
(Effect of Domination)
Service By Service Organisation
Organization
• Fast food outlets, Govt. Hotels/Outle
• Standard & Inflexible choices
• Restricted by Rules
• Reduced Job Satisfaction
Employee /Contact
Customer
Personnel
Custom er 5
Terrible 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
Terrible Outstanding
Employee
The Cycle of Capability
• Careful employee and customer selection
• High-quality training
• Well-designed support systems
• Greater latitude to meet customer’s needs
• Clear limits on expectations of employees
• Appropriate rewards and recognition
• Satisfied employees
• Employee referrals of job candidates
Service Profit Chain
Internal External
Operating strategy and Service
service delivery system concept Target market
Loyalty
Customers Revenue
Satisfaction growth
Productivity Line of Internal Interaction -
& > Service
Employees Satisfaction Loyalty
Output value
quality
Capability
Profitability
Service
quality
11/7/21 oisi_N4 21
Case Studies
Topics for Discussion
• What are the organizational and marketing
implications of considering a customer as a
“partial employee”?
• Comment on the different dynamics of one-
on-one service and group service.
• How does use of a “service script” relate to
service quality?
• If the roles played by customers are
determined by cultural norms, how can
services be exported?
AMY’S ICE CREAM
Abstract Questions
Your Ideas …
Comparison between perceptions of Service Quality
Received and Service Quality Desired.
11/7/21 oisi_N3 7
Measuring Service Quality : Some examples
In “Durable” Service:
• RFT %
• Repeat job %
• Call Back %
In Telecom:
• Number of failed calls due to network
• Number of failed calls due to other reasons
In Banking Sector:
• “Tellering” Time
• NPA
• Loan Document processing RFT
In Call Centres:
• Number calls “escalated” and unresolved
• Number of calls unresolved
• Time to respond
• RFT
• Time Taken per “Successful” call
Measuring Service Quality
• SERVQUAL* Model
– Measure of Customer’s perception on scale 1 to 7 for a given industry
– Measure of Customer’s perception after actually experiencing the
Service of a particular Marketer
– Yields best in class performance levels
• Results in Gaps causing Customer Dis-satisfaction
• Corrective Action Plan (“Capping” the gap)
• Helps benchmarking
* Fitzsimmons pp 193-195
Perceived Service Quality
• Gap1
– Customer Expectation and
– Management’s perception of Customer Expectation
• Gap 2
– Managements inability to specify target performance levels
to meet Customer Expectations and
– Translate them into measurables
• Gap3
– Actual delivered Service level and
– Specified Service level by the management
• Gap4
– Claimed Service Level and
– Experienced Service level
• Gap5
– Dependent on gaps 1 to 4
Gaps in Service Quality
Word -of-mouth
Personal needs Past experience
communications
Customer
Expected service
GAP 5
Perceived service
• Taguchi
method
–Poka-Yoke
– Checklist (preflight, pre and post surgery)
– Error free execution
• Quality Function Deployment
– A detailed process of translating
o Customer Expectations into
o Measurable Design/Conformance Parameter/Specification
o Service Company’s facets
– Into a relationship grid leading to an action plan
These methods are mainly used in manufacturing but, can be adopted to Service
as well. (Fitzsimmons pp 200-205)
Quality Service by Design
! Quality in the Service Package
Budget Hotel example
– Taguchi Methods (Robustness)
“Robust” Design to withstand abuse
Better capacity planning and utilization
Notifying maids of rooms for cleaning
Quality Service by Design
! Poka-yoke (fail-safing)
Height bar at amusement park
! Quality Function Deployment
House of Quality
Classification of Service Failures
with Poka-Yoke Opportunities
Server Errors Customer Errors
Task: Preparation:
Doing work incorrectly Failure to bring necessary
Treatment: materials
Failure to listen to customer Encounter:
Tangible: Failure to follow system flow
Failure to wear clean uniform Resolution:
Failure to signal service
failure
House of Quality
Relationships
* Strong
Medium
O Weak
Relative
O O
* * Customer Perc eptions
Servic e Elements
Informatiion
Imp o Village Volvo
Equipment
orta
Capacity
Attitude
nce + Volvo Dealer
Training
Customer Expectations 1 2 3 4 5
Reliability 9 8 5 5 + o
Responsiveness 7 3 9 3 2 o +
Assurance 6 5 9 6 + o
Empathy 4 7 + o
Tangibles 2 2 3 + o
+
o o
Comparison with Volvo Dealer o o
_ o
! Deming’s 14 Principles
Recovery:
Expedite
Labor and materials
Costs of Service Quality
Failure costs Detection costs Prevention costs
External failure: Process control
a.Pre-manufacturing Qualitya.Training,
planning
Customer complaints
a.Post-shipment Peerinspection
review of raw Training program
b.Audits,
defects
Warranty charges material
Supervision Qualityc.Vendor
audits Rating
b.Transit
Liability insurance b.Linecomment
Customer failures due
card to d.Preventive
Data acquisition and analysis
damages materials maintenance
Legal judgments Ins
c.DOAs (Dead
LossOnof repeat service
Arrival)
d.Warranty
Repair cost
Internal failure:
Scrap
a.Pre-shipment defects
b.Failure during manufacturing
Rework
due to workmanship
c.Raw material rejected during
inspection
Service Process Control
Customer
input Service
concept
Service Customer
Resources output
process
Identify reason
for
nonconformance
Control Chart of Departure Delays
Percentage of flights on
100
expected
90
Lower Control Limit
tim e
80
70
60
1998 1999
p (1 - p p (1 - p
UCL = p + 3 LCL = p - 3
n n
Basics of Quality Improvement
• Customer Satisfaction
o Customer First
• Management by Facts
o Collect & Analyse data
o Team working
• Respect for people Quality level
• Deming’s Wheel
(PDCA Cycle)
Act Plan
Check Do
Bench Mark
Time
11/7/21 oisi_N3 23
Unconditional Service Guarantee:
Customer View
! Unconditional (L.L. Bean)
! Easy to understand and communicate
(Bennigan’s)
! Meaningful (Domino’s Pizza)
! Easy to invoke (Cititravel)
! Easy to collect (Manpower)
Unconditional Service Guarantee:
Management View
! Focuses on customers (British Airways)
! Sets clear standards (FedEx)
! Guarantees feedback (Manpower)
! Promotes an understanding of the service
delivery system (Bug Killer)
! Builds customer loyalty by making
expectations explicit
Customer Satisfaction
! All customers want to be satisfied.
Public Action
Private Action
Stop buying the product or
boycott the seller
No Action Warn friends about the product
and /or seller
Customer Feedback and Word-
of-Mouth
! The average business only hears from 4% of their customers who are
dissatisfied with their products or services. Of the 96% who do not bother
to complain, 25% of them have serious problems.
! The 4% complainers are more likely to stay with the supplier than are the
96% non-complainers.
! A customer who has had a problem resolved by a company will tell about
5 people about their situation.
Number of People Told Based
on Level of Dissatisfaction
Average number of people told
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Slight Annoyed Very Ext Abs
diss annoyed annoyed furious
Action Taken Based on Level of
Dissatisfaction
Remain Loyal
Defect
Missing in action Detractors
Defected; Defected;
non-complaining vocally critical
not easy
don’t complain complain
Information Goods
dominates dominates
service service
package package
Electronic and Traditional Services
Features Electronic Traditional
Interaction Screen-to-face Face-to-face
Availability Anytime Working hours
Access From anywhere Travel to location
Market Area Worldwide Local
Ambiance Electronic Physical
interface environment
Payment Credit card Cash or check
Speed Immediate Physical waiting
Privacy Anonymity Social interaction
Grocery Shopping Comparison
On-line Traditional
Shopping Shopping
! Sources of Revenue:
- Transaction fees
- Information and advice
- Fees for services and commissions
- Advertising and listing fees
! Ownership
- Customer relationship
- Customer data
- Customer transaction
Economics of Scalability
Information vs. Information Information with Goods with support Goods dominate
Goods Content dominates some service services
Degree of Customer Self-service Call center backup Call center support Call center order
Content processing
Example Service Used car prices Online travel agent Computer support Online retailer
Destination j
Yj Euclidean
[ ]
1/ 2
dij = ( xi - x j ) + ( yi - y j )
2 2
Yi Origin i
Metropolitan
dij = xi - x j + yi - y j
0 X
Xi Xj
Effect of Optimization Criteria
City A
3
15
10
*
2
5
*
-15 -10 -5 5 10 15 20 25
*
-5
-10
City B City C
1
1. Maximize Utilization
(City C: elderly find distance a barrier)
2. Minimize Distance per Capita
(City B: centrally located)
3. Minimize Distance per Visit
(City A: many frequent users)
Estimation of Geographic Demand
5
3 (W3=3)
4 Median =16/2 =8
3
Y miles
2 (W2=1)
2 1 (W1=7)
1 4 (W4=5)
0
0 1 2 3 4
X miles
Huff Retail Location Model
åA
j =1
ij
Huff Retail Location Model
Third, annual customer expenditures for
item k at store j can now be calculated.
( )
m
E jk = å Pij Ci Bik
j =1
Huff Retail Location Model
E jk
M jk = m
å (C B
i =1
i ik )
Athol Furniture Site Alternatives
4
1 State Park
2 3
5 Bluff lake
6 Z 7
9
Railroad 8
B
Freeway
Major street Y
Park boundary 11
River
4 Census block group 10
Existing retail outlets 12
X
Potential sites
Athol Furniture Data
COMPETITORS’ STORE SIZES MAXIMUM SIZE LIMIT OF SITES
Store Sales area, sq ft Site Maximum sales area, sq ft
A 10,000 X 15,000
B 15,000 Y 20,000
Z 10,000
MARKET DATA
30000
X15
20000
Y10
10000 Y15
0 Y20
0.1 0.5 1 2 5
Z10
Market Share Analysis
1 2 3 4 5 6
In 240 120 60 90 180 120 Out
15 30 60 40 20 30
Activity
numbers
Flow rate
per hour
Time
in seconds
Automobile Driver’s License
Office (Improved Layout)
1,4 3
In 65 60
55 60
2 5 6 Out
120 180 120
30 20 30
1,4 3
In 65 60
55 60
Process Layout
Relative Location Problem
! Ocean World Theme Park Daily Flows
A B C D E F A B C D E F
A 7 20 0 5 6 15 30 0 15 6
B 8 6 10 0 2 12 40 10 8
Net
C 10 6 15 7 8 flow 20 8 8
D 0 30 5 10 3 30 6
E 10 10 1 20 6 10
F 0 6 0 3 4
DEMAND SUPPLY
STRATEGIES STRATEGIES
Partitioning Increasing
demand customer
Developing participation
Sharing
complementary
capacity
services
Establishing
Scheduling
price
Developing Cross- work shifts
incentives training
reservation
systems employees
Promoting Creating
off-peak adjustable
Using
demand part-time capacity
employees
Yield
management
What is capacity?
Your Views
What is Capacity Planning?
Views:
• Ability to deliver service over a particular time period
• Types and amounts of resources needed to execute the
organisations strategic business plan
• It’s a challenge to balance input and output
• Usually measured as “Input” and not “output”
• Is a complicated decision because Customers participate
in the Service Process.
• Result: Congestion, Waiting,Poor Quality of Service
Examples:
• Units served per employee
• Number of Operations “performable“per unit of time
• Number of “occupiable” slots per unit
• Frequency at which an operation can be performed
Capacity Cost Trade Off
Cost
Combined Cost
Cost of Service
Cost of Waiting
Capacity to Serve
Strategic Importance of Capacity Planning
• Has to provide for future (Expansion,Growing Market)
• Threat of Losing Customers (Short term)
• Irreversible decision (Financial & Other Investments)
• Balancing against cost of Lost Sales
• Remaining Competitive
Inputs to Capacity Planning
• Existing Market size
• Planned Market Share
• Existing Service level / Best in Class
• Planned Service level
• Existing Waiting Time
• Planned Waiting Time
• Planned Position On the Grid
• Stage of Competitiveness
• Customer Inputs
• Industry Trends
• Seasonality of Demand
Position Defines Capacity Requirement
High Complexity Of Service Delivered
Hi-End product Repair
Health
Routine Health Check
Housing Loan
Air Travel- Foreign
Air Travel- Local
Railway reservation
Convention/Seminar
Low High
Motel Diversity of Service Delivered
Current A/c
SB A/c
College Admissions
Immunisation Drives
Lo-End product Repair
Low
Methods of Capacity Planning
• Little’s law : Facility (Seating)
l = Arrival rate
W = Average Waiting Time
L = l * W = Average number of Customers in a system L
• Analytical Queuing Models
A = Distribution of Time between Arrivals
B = Distribution of Service Times
C = Number of Parallel Servers
• Symbols
M = Service rate / Poisson Distribution of Arrival
D = Service Time / Constant Inter arrival time
Ek= Erlang Distribution with Shape parameter (if k=1then, Erlang
equivalent to exponential, if k= ¥ then Deterministic)
G = General Distribution (normal,uniform or empirical) with mean &
variance
Stages In Service Competitiveness
Overview Of Queuing Models
General Relationships Between System Characteristics
S.No. Remarks Equation
300
250
Overload
200
Demand
150
100
50
Over Capacity
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Planning Weekly Off
Day Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Demand 120 140 130 100 110 180 200 130 140 120 110 120 160 200
Capacity
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
per person
Number of
Persons 6 7 7 5 6 9 10 7 7 6 6 6 8 10
Try on Book1.xls
Needed
Sheet: Cap Plng.
Number Of Fitzsimmons Pp 375-380
persons 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Available
(Short) or
Excess 3 2 2.5 4 3.5 0 -1 2.5 2 3 3.5 3 1 -1
Capacity
Weekly off
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No
Possible?
Hire Temp No No No No No No No No No No No No
Hire Hire
Staff Hire Hire Hire Hire Hire Hire Hire Hire Hire Hire Hire Hire
Example Of Capacity Planning
Estimated Annual CTC in Rs.'000
Sl.No.
15 Lo-End Audio 50 50 50 100 100 100 150 150 150 250 250 250 1650
Warranty Jobs Oncluding
16 40 40 40 60 60 60 80 80 80 150 150 150 990
Demo Calls
Total Repair Load 510 510 510 970 970 970 1380 1380 1380 2020 2020 2030 14650
Managing Demand
• Demand varies
• Variations can be plotted / tracked
• Based on trend analysis in the past,
• Strategies can be planned to manage the variations
• What are the options available?
Managing Demand : Strategy Options
Managing Managing
Managing Service Capacity
Supply Demand
• Ensures “Houseful”
Develop & Handle • Minimise Cost of “Idle” Capacity
“Overbooking” • Non refundable tickets? • Treating “Excess” demand
Res.System.
• Training Employees
Partitioning Demand at a Health
Clinic
140
Per centa ge of aver age da ily
Tellers required
0 1 2 3 4 5
5
2 3 4
4 4
3 3
2 2 1
Two Full-time Tellers 1 1 5 2
1
Co nst raint s:
Sunday x2 +x3 +x4 +x5 +x6 ³ b1
Mo nday x3 +x4 +x5 +x6 +x7 ³ b2
2500
30
Topline profile
25
Number of operators
2000
20
1500
Calls
0
12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12
012 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12
Time
Time
Weekly Workshift Scheduling
with Days-off
Objective function:
Minimize x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 + x6 + x7
Constraints:
Sunday x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 + x6 ³3
Monday x3 + x4 + x5 + x6 + x7 ³6
Tuesday x1 + x4 + x5 + x6 + x7 ³5
Wednesday x1 + x2 + x5 + x6 + x7 ³6
Thursday x1 + x2 + x3 + x6 + x7 ³5
Friday x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x7 ³5
Saturday x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 ³5
xi ³ 0 and integer
30%
50% 50%
Standard
60%
50% 30%
Budget 30%
10%
250
2 standard deviation control limits
200
Reservations
150
100
50
0
1
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
Days before arrival
Yield Management
Dogged!
Dedicated
Obliging
Graceful
Gratifying
Energetic
Dynamic
Topics for Discussion
! What organizational problems can arise from the
use of part-time employees?
! How can computer-based reservation systems
increase service capacity utilization?
! What possible dangers are associated with
developing complementary services?
! Will the widespread use of yield management
eventually erode the concept of fixed prices?
! What possible negative effects can yield
management have on customer relations?
Managing Waiting Lines
Learning Objectives
• Describe how queues form.
• Apply Maister's two “laws of service.”
• Discuss the psychology of waiting.
• Describe the essential features of a queuing
system.
• Explain the equivalence of Poisson arrival
rates and exponential time between arrivals
Who Waits ?
Customer / Consumer
The decision to select the method of Managing the waiting line will
be decided by the waiting experience expected by the customers.
Waiting Realities
• Inevitability of Waiting: Waiting results
from variations in arrival rates and service
rates
N
Service Takes Place
Renege
Arrival Queue
process Departure
Calling discipline Service
Queue
population configuration process
Balk No future
need for
service
Customer Arrivals
• Are not homogeneous & at regular intervals
• Need to measure
– Inter arrival time
– Forecast the time of arrival of next customer
– Gives in Forecasting arrival per unit of time
– Assists in Planning Service Headcount (Capacity
Planning)
• Methods#
– Exponential Distribution
– Poisson Distribution
• Supports Q Configuration
Arrival Process
Arrival
process
Static Dynamic
40
30
20
10
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Patient interarrival time, minutes
Temporal Variation in Arrival Rates
3.5 140
physician visits
2.5 120
2
110
100
1.5
90
1
80
0.5 70
0 60
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1 2 3 4 5
Hour of day Day of week
Poisson and Exponential Equivalence
One-hour
1 2 0 1 interval
Arrival Arrivals Arrivals Arrival
62 min.
40 min.
123 min.
Take a Number
Enter
3 4 2
8 6 10
12 7
11 9
5
Queue Configuration Choices : Multiple “Q”s
• Examples
– fast Food
– Immigration,Customs at International Airports
– Check in “Q”s at Domestic Airports
• Key features
– Customer decides to join a Q with smallest line
– Service Provider can balance the load on each server to
reduce waiting time
– Customer can choose the server
• Advantages
– Service can be differentiated
– SP can assign servers based on skills
– Chance of a Customer leaving because of long Q is reduced
Servers ?
Customers
11/7/21 oisi_N5 23
Single “Q” Multiple Servers
Servers
Customers
Advantages
• Ensures fairness: First come First served
• “Q” Jumping is prevented
• Service performed 1 to 1. Privacy assured
• Reduces average time spent in the “Q”
11/7/21 oisi_N5 24
Multiple Servers and “Q”s, take a Number
Servers 6 Next Number Displayed
Seated 10 7 8 9 6
Customers 12 11 14 13 15
Advantages
• Formal Q is not required
• Customer can relax while waiting
• Transparent nature of Waiting Time
• Single Entrance with “Take a Number” prompt
• If Number of Waiting Customers > Seating Capacity – “FULL” sign displayed
with an approximate time indication when a seat falls vacant
• Example : Taiwan Visa office HK
11/7/21 oisi_N5 25
Queue Discipline
Queue
discipline
Static
Dynamic
(FCFS rule)
Relative frequency, %
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
1 11 21 31 41 1 11 21 31 41
Minutes Minutes
15
Relative frequency, %
10
0
1 11 21 31 41
Minutes
Service Facility Arrangements
Service facility Server arrangement
Parking lot Self-serve
Hospital Many service centers in parallel and series, not all used by each patient
Class Assignment 5
1. In the Mess , study the “Q” during lunch and Dinner hour.
2. Find out the following:
a. Average waiting Time before the student starts self service of meals
b. Average time to fill the plate
c. Average time to finish the meals
d. Number of times a student has to return later because either the food
supply is over or the mess hall is full
e. Average Time from Start to Finish
3. What can you improve? How?
4. Divide the various tasks between yourselves (6 per task)
5. 20 Minute presentation, 10 minutes Q&A.
6. To be ready in 21 days from today
Topics for Discussion
• Suggest some strategies for controlling variability in
service times.
• Suggest diversions that could make waiting less
painful.
• Select a bad and good waiting experience, and
contrast the situations with respect to the aesthetics
of the surroundings, diversions, people waiting, and
attitude of servers.
• Suggest ways that management can influence the
arrival times of customers.
• What are the benefits of a fast-food employee taking
your order while waiting in line?
Case Studies
Eye’ll Be Seeing You
• How are Maister’s First and Second Laws of
Service illustrated?
• What good and bad features of a waiting process
are evident?
• How should Dr. X respond to Mrs. F’s letter?
• How could Dr. X prevent future incidents?
• Should customers be rewarded for offering
constructive criticism?
Pronto Pizza
• Draw a process flow diagram and identify the
bottleneck operation.
100
l
With: r=
µ
r
Then: Ls =
1- r
10
8 r Ls
6 0 0
0.2 0.25
4
0.5 1
2 0.8 4
0.9 9
0
0.99 99
0 1.0
Foto-Mat Queuing Analysis
On average 2 customers arrive per hour at a Foto-Mat to process film.
There is one clerk in attendance that on average spends 15 minutes
per customer.
2. What is the average waiting time in queue and average time spent
in the system?
4. If the clerk is paid $4 per hour and a customer’s waiting cost in queue is
considered $6 per hour. What is the total system cost per hour?
5. What would be the total system cost per hour, if a second clerk were
added and a single queue were used?
White & Sons Queuing Analysis
White & Sons wholesale fruit distributions employ a single crew whose
job is to unload fruit from farmer’s trucks. Trucks arrive at the unloading
dock at an average rate of 5 per hour poisson distributed. The crew is
able to unload a truck in approximately 10 minutes with exponential
distribution.
3. What is the probability that an arriving truck will find space available
at the unloading dock and not block the alley?
Capacity Analysis of Robot
Maintenance and Repair Service
A production line is dependent upon the use of assembly robots that
periodically break down and require service. The average time between
breakdowns is three days with a poisson arrival rate. The average time
to repair a robot is two days with exponential distribution. One
mechanic repairs the robots in the order in which they fail.
1. What is the average number of robots out of service?
2. If management wants 95% assurance that robots out of service will not
cause the production line to shut down due to lack of working robots,
how many spare robots need to be purchased?
3. Management is considering a preventive maintenance (PM) program at
a daily cost of $100 which will extend the average breakdowns to six
days. Would you recommend this program if the cost of having a robot
out of service is $500 per day? Assume PM is accomplished while the
robots are in service.
4. If mechanics are paid $100 per day and the PM program is in effect,
should another mechanic be hired? Consider daily cost of mechanics
and idle robots.
Determining Number of
Mechanics to Serve Robot Line
1. Assume mechanics work together as a team
1/ 6 1/ 6
= 1/ 3 = 1/ 2
1 1/2 1/ 2 1/ 2 -1/ 6
100(1)=$100 500(1/2)=$250 $350
1/ 6 1/ 6
2 1 = 1/ 6 = 1/ 5
1 100(2)=$200 1- 1/ 6 500(1/5)=$100 $300
3 3/2 1/ 6 1/ 6
= 1/ 9 100(3)=$300 = 1/ 8 500(1/8)=$62 $362
3/ 2 3 / 2 -1/ 6
Determining Number of
Mechanics to Serve Robot Line
2. Assume Robots divided equally among mechanics working alone
1 / 12 1 / 12
2 1/ 12 = 1/ 6 $200 = 1 / 5 500 (1/5) 2=$200 $400
1/ 2 1 / 2 - 1 / 12
Determining Number of
Mechanics to Serve Robot Line
3. Assume two mechanics work alone from a single queue.
Note:
l 1/ 6 1 r3
r= = = Ls = +r
µ 1/ 2 3 4-r 2
= 0.01 + 0.33
= 0.34
Ls 1
Ws = Wq = Ws -
Ls l µ
System
Single Queue l 1/ 6
= = 1/ 5
with Team Service µ - l 1- 1/ 6 6/ 5 =1.2 days 0.2 days
Single Queue
r3
with Multiple + r = 0.34 6 (.34) = 2.06 days 0.06 days
4 - r2
Servers
Multiple Queue l 1 / 12
= = 1/ 5
and Multiple µ - l 1 / 2 - 1 / 12 12 (1/5) =2.4 days 0.4 days
Servers
Single Server General Service
Distribution Model : M/G/1
r 2 + l2s 2
Lq =
2(1 - r )
1
1. For Exponential Distribution: s2 =
µ2
r 2 + l2 / µ 2 2r 2 r2
Lq = = =
2(1 - r ) 2(1 - r ) (1 - r )
3. Conclusion:
Suppliers
Recycling/Remanufacturing
Service Service
Provider Customer
Design
Performance Evaluation
Identify Evaluator Meet Deadlines
Quality of Work Flexibility
Communication Dependability
Taxonomy for Purchasing
Business Services
Importance of Service
Low High
Facility Support: Equipment Support:
Property -Laundry -Repairs
-Janitorial -Maintenance
Focus -Waste disposal -Product testing
Employee Support: Employee Development:
of People -Food service -Training
-Plant security -Education
-Temporary personnel -Medical care
Service Facilitator: Professional:
Process -Bookkeeping -Advertising
-Travel booking -Public relations
-Packaged software -Legal
Purchasing Considerations
Focus on Property
Facility Support Service
• Low cost
• Identify responsible party to evaluate performance
• Precise specifications can be written
Professional Service
Production
Delay
• Constraints
Relevant Inventory Costs
• Ordering costs
• Shortage costs
Inventory Management Questions
• What should be the order quantity
(Q)?
• When should an order be placed,
called a reorder point (ROP)?
• How much safety stock (SS) should
be maintained?
Inventory Models
• Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)
• Special Inventory Models
With Quantity Discounts
Planned Shortages
• Demand Uncertainty - Safety Stocks
• Inventory Control Systems
Continuous-Review (Q,r)
Periodic-Review (order-up-to)
• Single Period Inventory Model
Inventory Levels For EOQ Model
Units on Hand
0
Q Time
D
Annual Costs For EOQ Model
900
800
700
Annual Cost, $
600
Holding Cost
500
Ordering Cost
400 Total Cost
300
200
100
0
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
Order Quantity, Q
EOQ Formula
• Notation
D = demand in units per year
H = holding cost in dollars/unit/year
S = cost of placing an order in dollars
Q = order quantity in units
• Total Annual Cost for Purchase Lots
TCp = S ( D / Q) + H (Q / 2)
• EOQ
2 DS
EOQ =
H
Annual Costs for Quantity
Discount Model
22,000
C = $20.00 C = $19.50 C = $18.75
21000
Annual Cost, $
20000
2000
1000
0 TIME
-K
T1 T2
T
Formulas for Special Models
• Quantity Discount Total Cost Model
TCqd = CD + S ( D / Q) + I (CQ / 2)
• Model with Planned Shortages
D (Q - K ) 2 K2
TCb = S + H +B
Q 2Q 2Q
2 DS æ H + B ö
Q =
*
ç ÷
H è B ø
æ H ö
K =Q ç
* *
÷
è H + Bø
Values for Q* and K* as A
Function of Backorder Cost
B Q* K* Inventory Levels
B® ¥ 2DS 0
0
H
2DS æ H + B ö é H ù
0< B<¥ ç ÷ Q*ê 0
H è B ø ë H + B úû
B® 0 undefined Q* 0
Demand During Lead Time
Example
sL = 3
s = 15
. s = 15
. s = 15
. s = 15
.
+ + + =
d3
Average lead time usage, dL
d1
d2 EOQ
Time
Order 1 placed Order 2 placed Order 3 placed
RP RP RP
Target inventory level, TIL
Q2 Q3
d1 d3
Amount used during
first lead time
d2
Time
Order 1 placed Order 2 placed Order 3 placed
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percentage of inventory items (SKUs)
Inventory Items Listed in
Descending Order of Dollar Volume
Monthly Percent of
Unit cost Sales Dollar Dollar Percent of
Inventory Item ($) (units) Volume ($) Volume SKUs Class
.028 2 4 2 0 -2 -4
.055 3 12 10 8 6 4
.083 4 20 18 16 14 12
.111 5 28 26 24 22 20
.139 6 36 34 32 30 28
.167 7 36 42 40 38 36
.139 8 36 42 48 46 44
.111 9 36 42 48 54 52
.083 10 36 42 48 54 60
.055 11 36 42 48 54 60
.028 12 36 42 48 54 60
P(D>Q)
(Cu applies)
Probability
0.722
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
New spaper demand, Q
Topics for Discussion
• Discuss the functions of inventory for different
organizations in the distribution system.
• How would one find values for inventory costs?
• How can information technology create a competitive
advantage through inventory management?
• How valid are the assumptions for the EOQ model?
• How is a service level determined for inventory
items?
• What inventory model would apply to service capacity
such as seats on an aircraft?
Managing Service Projects
Learning Objectives
Early start ES The earliest time an activity can begin if all previous
activities are begun at their earliest times
EF = ES + t (2)
LS = LF - t (4)
TS = LF - EF (5)
or TS = LS - ES (6)
Tennis Tournament Activity on
Node Diagram
TS
ES EF
LS LF
A2 C3 D2 G4
START
E10 I3 J2
B8 F4 H1
Early Start Gantt Chart for Tennis
Tournament
D Locate Officials 2
E Send RSVP 10
Invitations
F Sign Player 4
Contracts
G Purchase Balls 4
and Trophies
H Negotiate 1
Catering
I Prepare Location 3
J Tournament 2
Personnel Required 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
D Locate Officials 2
E Send RSVP 10
Invitations
F Sign Player 4
Contracts
G Purchase Balls 4
and Trophies
H Negotiate 1
Catering
I Prepare Location 3
J Tournament 2
Personnel Required 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1
F(D)
P(D<A) = .01
P(D>B) = .01
TIME
A M D B
Expected Duration
_ A+4M + B
D=
6
Variance
2
é B - Aù
V =ê ú
ë 6 û
Note: (B - A )= Range or 6s
Activity Means and Variances for
Tennis Tournament
Activity A M B D V
A 1 2 3
B 5 8 11
C 2 3 4
D 1 2 3
E 6 9 18
F 2 4 6
G 1 3 11
H 1 1 1
I 2 2 8
J 2 2 2
Uncertainly Analysis
Assumptions
1. Use of Beta Distribution and Formulas For D and V
2. Activities Statistically Independent
3. Central Limit Theorem Applies ( Use “student t” if less than
30 activities on CP)
4. Use of Critical Path Activities Leading Into Event Node
Result
Project Completion Time Distribution is Normal With:
_
µ = åD For Critical Path Activities
Critical Path
Activities D V
A 2 4/36
C 3 4/36
E 10 144/36
I 3 36/36
J 2 0
µ = 20 188/36 = 5.2 = s
2
Question
X -µ
Z=
s
2
s = 52. Z=
24 - 20
5.2
Z = 1.75
24 Days
Indirect Cost
Cost
Opportunity Cost
Direct Cost
(0,0)
Duration of Project
Cost
Crash
C* Slope is cost to expedite per day
Normal
C
Total 115
Progressive Crashing
Project Activity Direct Indirect Opportunity Total
Duration Crashed Cost Cost Cost Cost
20 Normal 115 45 8 168
19 41 6
18 37 4
17 33 2
16 29 0
15 25 -2
14 21 -4
13 17 -6
12 13 -8
A2 C3 D2 FB=7 G4
START
E10 I3 J2
FB=5
B8 F4 H1
NOTE: Reduce by ½ all activity durations > 3 days to eliminate safety time
A2 C3 D2 FB=2 G2
START
E5 I3 J2 PB=4
B4 F2 H1 FB=3
Dollars Today
ACWP
Actual
Cost Variance
Cost
Budgeted Cost
BCWS (Baseline)
Schedule
Variance
BCWP
ATWP
STWP
Days
Value Time
Completed Variance
Quality and Productivity
Improvement
Quality level
Check Do
Act Plan
Time
Learning Objectives
Value =
(Re sults Pr oduced ) + (Pr ocessQuality )
(Pr ice) + (CostsofAcquiringtheService)
Four Stages in Service Firm
Competitiveness
1. Available for service 2. Journeyman 3. Distinctive competence 4. World-class service delivery
Customers patronize service Customers neither seek Customers seek out the firm The company’s name is synonymous
firm for reasons other than out nor avoid the firm. on the basis of its sustained with service excellence. Its service
performance. reputation for meeting doesn’t just satisfy customers; it
customer expectations delights them and thereby expands
customer expectations to levels its
competitors are unable to fulfill.
Operations is reactive, Operations functions in a Operations continually excels, Operations is a quick learner and fast
at best. mediocre, uninspired reinforced by personnel innovator; it masters every step of the
fashion. management and systems service delivery process and provides
that support an intense capabilities that are superior to
customer focus. competitors.
SERVICE QUALITY
Is subsidiary to cost, Meets some customer Exceeds customer Raises customer expectations and
highly variable. expectations; consistent expectations; consistent seeks challenge; improves
on one or two key on multiple dimensions. continuously.
dimensions.
Four Stages in Service Firm
Competitiveness (cont.)
1. Available for service 2. Journeyman 3. Distinctive competence 4. World-class service delivery
BACK OFFICE
Counting room. Contributes to service, plays Is equally valued with front Is proactive, develops its own
an important role in the total office; plays integral role. capabilities, and generates
service, is given attention, opportunities.
but is still a separate role.
CUSTOMER
Unspecified, to be A market segment whose A collection of individuals A source of stimulation, ideas,
satisfied at minimum cost. basic needs are understood. whose variation in needs is and opportunity.
understood.
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY
When necessary for When justified by cost When promises to enhance Source of first-mover advantages,
survival, under duress. savings. service. creating ability to do things your
competitors can’t do.
WORKFORCE
Negative constraint.
Efficient resource; disciplined; Permitted to select among Innovative; creates procedures.
follows procedures. alternative procedures.
FRONT-LINE MANAGEMENT
Controls workers. Controls the process. Listens to customers; coaches Is listened to by top management
and facilitates workers. as a source of new ideas. Mentors
works to enhance their career.
Continual Improvement as a
Competitive Strategy
! Analogy with Just-in-Time Manufacturing
! Inventory and Waiting Line Analogy
! Continual Improvement as a Service
Organization Culture
! Management Implications
Inventory and Waiting Line
Analogy
Feature Inventory Waiting line
! Check Sheet
! Run Chart
! Histogram
! Pareto Chart
! Flowchart
! Cause-and-Effect Diagram
! Scatter Diagram
! Control Chart
Check Sheet
Total 44 84 24 16 12
Run Chart
14
12
10
Departure Delays
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
Histrogram of Lost Luggage
3.5
2.5
Frequency
1.5
0.5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Procedure
Pareto Analysis of Flight
Departure Delay Causes
Cause Percentage of Incidents Cumulative Percentage
Yes
No
Issue
Boarding Pass
Passenger
Boards Airplane
Scatter Diagram
12
10
8
Departure Delays
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Late Passengers
Control Chart of Departure Delays
Percentage of flights on
100
expected
90
Lower Control Limit
tim e
80
70
60
1998 1999
p (1 - p p (1 - p
UCL = p + 3 LCL = p - 3
n n
Corporate Programs for Quality
Improvement
4%5% Temporary
5%
6% Services
Subcontract
Services
15%
Public Support
65%
Grants
Miscellaneous
Forecasting Demand for
Services
Learning Objectives
! Subjective Models
Delphi Methods
! Causal Models
Regression Models
! Time Series Models
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Delphi Forecasting
Question: In what future election will a woman become president of the united states?
N Period Moving Average
Characteristics:
Need N observations to make a forecast
Very inexpensive and easy to understand
Gives equal weight to all observations
Does not consider observations older than N periods
Moving Average Example
Three-period
Saturday Period Occupancy Moving Average Forecast
Aug. 1 1 79
8 2 84
15 3 83
22 4 81
29 5 98
Sept. 5 6 100
12 7
Exponential Smoothing
Let : ST = Smoothed value at end of period T
AT = Actual observation for period T
FT+1 = Forecast for period T+1
ST = ST-1 + a [ AT - ST -1 ]
or : ST = a AT + (1 - a ) ST -1
FT +1 = ST
Exponential Smoothing
Hotel Example
Saturday Hotel Occupancy (a =0.5)
MAD =
ST = aAT + (1 - a ) ST -1
Substitute for ST -1 = aAT + (1 - a )[aAT -1 + (1 - a ) ST - 2 ]
ST = aAT + (1 - a )[aAT -1 + (1 - a ) ST - 2 ]
ST = aAT + a (1 - a ) AT -1 + (1 - a ) 2 ST - 2
If continued:
ST = aAT + a (1 - a ) AT -1 + a (1 - a ) 2 AT -2 +.....+a (1 - a ) T -1 A1 + (1 - a ) T S0
Exponential Smoothing
Weight Distribution
0.3 a = 0.3
a (1 - a ) = 0.21
0.2
Weight
a (1 - a ) 2 = 0147
.
a (1 - a ) 3 = 0103
.
0.1 a (1 - a ) 4 = 0.072
a (1 - a )5 = 0.050
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Age of Observation (Period Old)
Relationship Between a and N
a (exponential smoothing constant) : 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.67
N (periods in moving average) : 39 19 9 5.7 4 3 2
Saturday Hotel Occupancy
Effect of Alpha ( a =0.1 vs. a =0.5)
105
100 Actual
Occupancy
95
90 Forecast
(a = 0.5)
85 Forecast
80 (a = 01
.)
75
0
6
Period
Exponential Smoothing With
Trend Adjustment
St = a ( At ) + (1 - a )( St -1 + Tt -1 )
Tt = b ( St - St -1 ) + (1 - b )Tt -1
Ft +1 = St + Tt
Commuter Airline Load Factor (a = 0.5, b = 0.3)
Week Actual load factor Smoothed value Smoothed trend Forecast Forecast error
t At St Tt Ft | At - Ft|
1 31 31.00 0.00
2 40 31 9
3 43
4 52 47.10 3.74
5 49 49.92 3.47 51 2
6 64 58.69 5.06 53 11
7 58 60.88 4.20 64 6
8 68 66.54 4.63 65 3
MAD 6.7
Exponential Smoothing with
Seasonal Adjustment
St = a ( At / I t - L ) + (1 - a ) St -1
Ft +1 = ( St )( I t - L +1 )
At
It = g + (1 - g ) I t - L
St
Ferry Passengers taken to a Resort Island (a = 0.2, g = 0.3)
Actual Smoothed Index
Period t At value St It Forecast Ft | At - Ft|
1995
January 1 1651 ….. 0.837 …..
February 2 1305 ….. 0.662 …..
March 3 1617 ….. 0.820 …..
April 4 1721 ….. 0.873 …..
May 5 2015 ….. 1.022 …..
June 6 2297 ….. 1.165 …..
July 7 2606 ….. 1.322 …..
August 8 2687 ….. 1.363 …..
September 9 2292 ….. 1.162 …..
October 10 1981 ….. 1.005 …..
November 11 1696 ….. 0.860 …..
December 12 1794 1794.00 0.910 …..
1996
January 13 1806 …..
February 14 1731
March 15 1733
April 16 1904
May 17 2036
Topics for Discussion