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Math T Coursework 2020 Sem 3

This document analyzes student absentee data using Poisson distribution models. It finds that: 1) The mean number of absentees over 45 days was 3.4889 with a standard deviation of 2.5959. 2) A chi-squared goodness of fit test showed the data was not a good fit to a Poisson distribution with a parameter of 2, but was a good fit with a parameter of 4 or the calculated parameter of 3.4889. 3) Poisson distribution can model this type of count data and has real-life uses like improving efficiency and saving time and money.

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Melody Ong
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956 views

Math T Coursework 2020 Sem 3

This document analyzes student absentee data using Poisson distribution models. It finds that: 1) The mean number of absentees over 45 days was 3.4889 with a standard deviation of 2.5959. 2) A chi-squared goodness of fit test showed the data was not a good fit to a Poisson distribution with a parameter of 2, but was a good fit with a parameter of 4 or the calculated parameter of 3.4889. 3) Poisson distribution can model this type of count data and has real-life uses like improving efficiency and saving time and money.

Uploaded by

Melody Ong
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MATHS T

COURSEWORK
ASSIGNMENT C:
POISSON DISTRIBUTION MODEL

NAME : MELODY ONG HUEI QIE


IC : 010327-05-0202
Introduction
• Data seperated into two parts :(i) Qualitative
(ii)Quantitative

• Grouped data is data in form of frequency distribution


• Ungrouped data is data collected and recorded in sequence

• Mean---measure of tendency and data in central


• Standard deviation---difference between observation and mean

• Chi-squared test used in comparison between goodness-of-fit test and


tests of independence
Poisson distribution describe random variables that count number of
occurences in particular time or space.

Objective
• Investigate goodness-of-fit test of the number of absentees varies the
frequency of students

• Testing suitability of Poisson distribution in finding the probability of


number of absentees in 45 consecutive days

• Investigate the number of absentees by Poisson distribution with


different parameter
Methodology
• 36 students are randomly taken from SMK KING GEORGE V
• Mean calculated by using formula

• Standard deviation calculated by using

• Table 1 is tabulated by number of absentees and number of students


• Chi-squared goodness-of-fit test tested with different parameter such
as 2, 4 and 3.4889 to know whether the poisson distribution is good fit
or poor fit
• Each test is used 5% and 10% significance level
Results
0(6)+1(5)+2(6)+3(8)+4(6)+5(6)+6(1)+7(4)+8(2)+9(0)+10(0)+11(0)+12(1)
• Mean=
45
=3.4889
851 157 2
• Standard deviation = −
45 45
=2.5959
Number of absentees per day ,Xi Frequency of students,Oi
0 6
1 5
2 6
3 8
4 6
5 6
≥6 8

Table 1
• Poisson distribution used because time intervals 45 days (24/6/2020 to 4/9/2020)
• And since the data is discrete and also independent

• Assumptions made :
(i) data is from a random sample
(ii) sample is constant
(iii) number of absentees is directly propoertional to 45 consecutive days
(iv) the occurences are independent
=2
Ho: The sample data fits the Poisson distribution with parameter of 2
Hi: The sample data does not fits the Poisson distribution with parameter of 2
Number of absentees per Frequency of students,Oi P( X=xi) Ei
day ,Xi

0 6 0.1353 6.0885
1 5 0.2707 12.1815
2 6 0.2707 12.1815
3 8 0.1804 8.1180
4 6 0.0902 4.0590
5 6 0.0361 1.6245
≥6 8 0.0166 0.7470

Table 2
Number of absentees Frequency of students,Oi P( X=xi) Ei
per day ,Xi

0 6 0.1353 6.0885
1 5 0.2707 12.1815
2 6 0.2707 12.1815
3 8 0.1804 8.1180
≥4 20 0.1429 6.4305

Table 3
�2 =36.008

Degree of freedom=v-1 =5-1=4


Critical value at 5% =9.488 Critical value at 10%=7.779
Since �2 = 36.008 > 9.488, �� ������ ��. �ℎ� Since �2 = 36.008 > 7.779, �� ������ ��. �ℎ�
sample data does not fits the poisson distribution. sample data does not fits the poisson
It is poor fit. distribution.
It is poor fit.
=4
Ho: The sample data fits the Poisson distribution with parameter of 4
Hi: The sample data does not fits the Poisson distribution with parameter of 4
Number of absentees per Frequency of students,Oi P( X=xi) Ei
day ,Xi

0 6 0.0183 0.8235
1 5 0.0733 3.2985
2 6 0.1465 6.5925
3 8 0.1954 8.7930
4 6 0.1954 8.7930
5 6 0.1563 7.0335
≥6 8 0.2148 9.6660

Table 4
Number of absentees Frequency of students,Oi P( X=xi) Ei
per day ,Xi

≤2 17 0.2381 10.7145
3 8 0.1954 8.7930
4 6 0.1954 8.7930
5 6 0.1563 7.0335
≥6 8 0.2148 9.6660

Table 5
�2 =5.0850

Degree of freedom=v-1 =5-1=4


Critical value at 5% =9.488 Critical value at 10%=7.779
Since �2 = 5.0850 < 9.488, �� �� ��� ������ ��. �ℎ� Since �2 = 5.0850 <
sample data fits the poisson distribution. 7.779, �� �� ��� ������ ��. �ℎ�
It is good fit. sample data fits the poisson distribution.
It is good fit.
=3.4889
Ho: The sample data fits the Poisson distribution with parameter of 3.4889
Hi: The sample data does not fits the Poisson distribution with parameter of 3.4889
Number of absentees per Frequency of students,Oi P( X=xi) Ei
day ,Xi

0 6 0.0305 1.3725
1 5 0.1065 4.7925
2 6 0.1858 8.3610
3 8 0.2161 9.7245
4 6 0.1885 8.4825
5 6 0.1315 5.9175
≥6 8 0.1411 6.3495

Table 6
Number of absentees Frequency of students,Oi P( X=xi) Ei
per day ,Xi

≤1 11 0.1370 6.1650
2 6 0.1858 8.3610
3 8 0.2161 9.7245
4 6 0.1885 8.4825
5 6 0.1315 5.9175
≥6 8 0.1411 6.3495
Table 7
�2 =5.9212

Degree of freedom=v-2 =6-2=4


Critical value at 5% =9.488 Critical value at 10%=7.779
Since �2 = 5.9212 < 9.488, �� �� ��� ������ ��. �ℎ� Since �2 = 5.9212 <
sample data fits the poisson distribution. 7.779, �� �� ��� ������ ��. �ℎ�
It is good fit. sample data fits the poisson distribution.
It is good fit.
Conclusion
• The result of mean is 3.4889 while the standard deviation is 2.5959
• We use the chi-squared goodness-of-fit test to determine the data
follows Poisson distribution or not

• When parameter is 2 , it is poor fit at ∝= 0.05 and ∝=0.10


• When parameter is 4 ,it is good fit at ∝= 0.05 and ∝=0.10
• When parameter is 3.4889, it is good fit at ∝= 0.05 and ∝=0.10

• Uses of Poisson distribution in real life


I. Improve operational efficiency
II. Save time and money
Thank You

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