Market situation in the olive oil

and table olives sectors

Committee for the Common Organisation
of the Agricultural Markets
- Arable crops and olive oil -
30 September 2021
AGRI G.4
PRODUCTION,
CONSUMPTION
& ENDING STOCKS
World production decreasing for the third
consecutive marketing year
WORLD OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION
4 000 thousand tonnes
3 379 3 304 3 256
3 500 3 177
3 031
3 000
2 562
2 500 853 1 041
1 191
1 337 979
2 000 810
1 500
1 000
500
2 324 1 752 2 188 2 264 1 920 2 053
0
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 (fin.) 2020/21 (prov.)

non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2016/17-2020/21

Source: International Olive Council, MS declarations. Note: excl. pomace oil.

2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average

WORLD -5% WORLD -2%
EU 7% EU -2%
non-EU -22% non-EU -2%
Production recovery in the EU in 2020/21…

EU production in 2020/21 expected 2% below 5-year average

…partly offsetting slowdown in non-EU
countries.

Source: International Olive Council. Note: excl. pomace oil.

Non-EU production in 2020/21 expected 2% below 5-year average

First estimates for 2021/22 in the EU…
Production recovery in the EU in 2021/22
EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION
2 500 thousand tonnes
2188 2264 forecast
100 1920 2053 2097
135 185
2 000 100 150
1752 346 174 141 230
275
69 275
1 500 195 274 300
429
182 366
1 000

500

1 291 1 262 1 790 1 125 1 387 1 400

0
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 (fin.) 2020/21 (prov.) 2021/22 (for.)
Other EU (0%) Portugal (+50%) Greece (-16%) Italy (+10%) Spain (+1%) Average 2016/17-2020/21
Source: International Olive Council. Note: excl. pomace oil.

EU production in 2021/22 expected 3% above 5-year average

Lower estimated EU availabilities in 2020/21
EU OLIVE OIL AVAILABILITIES AND USES
thousand tonnes
2 991 2 941 2 956
3 000 2 843
2 693
2 602
2 500
2 293
2 204
2 326 2 370
2 315
2 226
2 000 2 109 2 157 2 122

1 862

1 500
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19 (prov.) 2019/20 (est.) 2020/21 (for.)
Availabilities (stocks+prod.+ import extra EU) Uses (consumption+exports extra EU)
Estimated EU ending stocks below average in
2020/21
EU OLIVE OIL ENDING STOCKS
1 000 thousand tonnes
894
783
800
631 631
600
474
359 531
400 455
322
200
177
0

Ending stocks Average last five years

Note: ending stocks on 30.9.; excl. olive pomace oil.
EU EXTRA-TRADE
 Imports decreased in the first ten months of
2020/21…
EU27 imports of olive oil from third countries (October - July)
2015/20 (5-year average)
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Trade partner
volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2019/20 (%)
Tunisia 99 784 75 93 203 74 188 757 88 127 849 86 -32.3
Syria 7 895 6 6 923 5 2 521 1 2 716 2 7.7
Morocco 6 858 5 13 719 11 5 126 2 4 913 3 -4.2
Turkey 6 362 5 5 126 4 7 431 3 3 907 3 -47.4
Argentina 5 014 4 2 912 2 4 927 2 4 357 3 -11.6
Utd. Kingdom 2 138 2 2 082 2 1 828 1 960 1 -47.5
Peru 805 1 812 1 2 737 1 1 503 1 -45.1
Others 3 763 3 1 714 1 2 175 1 2 757 2 26.8
Extra EU 132 618 126 492 215 503 148 962 -30.9
Source: COMEXT. Period: October - July. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes). Provisional data for 2020/21.
…resulting from lower imports of EVOO and
LOO, partly offset by higher imports of OPO.
EXTRA-EU OLIVE OIL IMPORTS, PER CATEGORY
50 000 tonnes

40 000

30 000

20 000

10 000

0
Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20
Extra virgin (CN 15091020) Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)
Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090) Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)
Olive oil (CN 15099000) Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510)
Average previous 3 marketing years
15091020 (extra virgin)
Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes
15091080 (virgin other than lampante)
Imports from TN decreased for the fourth
consecutive month
tonnes
IMPORTS OF VIRGIN OLIVE OIL FROM TUNISIA
35 000
65 444 56 199 121 580 106 118 216 767 125 212
30 000

25 000

20 000

15 000

10 000

5 000

0
Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20
quota + out of quota Inward processing Average previous 3 MY (quota + out of quota) Average previous 3 MY (inward processing)

Source: Eurostat COMEXT.

Imports from TN under zero duty quota fully
allocated
Zero duty imports from Tunisia in 2021

Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period
it is still part of the EU Customs Union. TAXUD EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.
 Exports stable in the first ten months of 2020/21,
compared to 2019/20…
EU27 exports of olive oil to third countries (October - July)
2015/20 (5-year average)
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Trade partner
volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2019/20 (%)
United States 192 317 34 197 324 34 228 099 33 236 826 35 3.8
Brazil 51 535 9 57 879 10 76 288 11 74 658 11 -2.1
Utd. Kingdom 52 398 9 48 836 8 66 152 10 57 244 8 -13.5
Japan 47 805 8 55 664 10 57 274 8 47 304 7 -17.4
China 34 139 6 38 168 7 39 348 6 32 281 5 -18.0
Canada 24 381 4 23 179 4 29 924 4 28 062 4 -6.2
Australia 23 604 4 22 105 4 29 878 4 25 542 4 -14.5
Others 137 193 24 140 645 24 159 866 23 180 315 26 12.8
Extra EU 563 372 583 800 686 828 682 233 -0.7
Source: COMEXT. Period: October - July. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes). Provisional data for 2020/21.
……resulting from stable exports of EVOO,
higher exports of OPO and lower exports for OO.
OLIVE OIL EXPORTS OUTSIDE THE EU, PER CATEGORY
100 000 tonnes

80 000

60 000

40 000

20 000

0
Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20
Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510) Olive oil (CN 15099000)
Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080) Extra virgin (CN 15091020)
Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090) Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)
Average previous 3 marketing years

15091020 (extra virgin)

Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes
15091080 (virgin other than lampante)
EU INTRA-TRADE
 Intra-trade broadly stable in 2020/21 (Oct.-Jun.)
EU intra-trade of olive oil (CN 1509) (October 2020 - June 2021)
Origin (declared exports) (1000 tonnes)
Spain Italy Greece Portugal France Others TOTAL
Trade partner volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume
Spain 3.3 3.4 2.5 2.0 71.3 70.7 0.3 5.8 0.1 1.1 77.6
Italy 241.9 49.5 99.3 80.3 21.8 21.6 0.1 1.0 0.3 2.4 363.3
Greece 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 1.4
Portugal 119.5 24.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 119.7
France 70.1 14.4 26.5 27.3 1.8 1.5 3.5 3.4 2.8 22.8 104.6
Germany 14.7 3.0 37.7 38.8 10.9 8.8 0.9 0.9 2.8 49.1 1.7 14.1 68.6
Netherlands 13.8 2.8 3.7 3.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.3 1.1 9.4 19.7
Belgium 6.0 1.2 3.2 3.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 1.6 28.5 0.9 7.8 13.0
Others 21.6 4.4 22.3 22.9 7.4 6.0 3.0 2.9 0.7 13.2 4.8 40.0 59.8
Total 488.3 100 97.2 100 123.6 100 100.9 100 5.6 100 12.1 100 827.7
Total same period
470.6 92.3 111.5 107.6 5.5 12.2 799.7
previous campaign
Difference (y-o-y%) 3.8 5.3 10.9 -6.2 2.4 -1.1 3.5
Period: 01/10/2020 - 30/06/2021. Olive oil excl. pomace oil. Source: COMEXT. All stat. regimes.
EU PRICES
(until 16.09.2021)
EVOO: stable at high levels across Member
States…
…reduced EVOO price divergence between
IT and other origins since May 2021.

NEW!
VOO prices also stable across Member States
LOO prices stable across Member States
TABLE OLIVES
World production below average in 2020/21
WORLD TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION
3 500 thousand tonnes 3 280
2 888 2 955
3 000 2 900
2 577 2 702
2 500

2 000 2 368
2 058 2 029 2 184 1 854
1 690
1 500

1 000

500 887 842 913 859 848

771
0
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
(prov.) (est.) (for.)
non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2015/16-2019/20
Source: International Olive Council.
2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average
WORLD -9% WORLD -7%
EU 10% EU -1%
non-EU -15% non-EU -10%
2020/21: production recovery in ES, broadly
unchanged in EL
thousand tonnes EU TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION
1 000
887 913 859
842 848
800 771
194 180 261 199 230
600 222

400
601 596 562 591 546
200 458

0
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
(prov.) (est.) (for.)
Other EU Portugal Italy Greece Spain EU EU average 2014/15-2018/19
Source: International Olive Council.
2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average
Spain 19% Spain -3%
Greece 4% Greece 9%
Italy -17% Italy -6%
Portugal -37% Portugal -32%
First estimates for 2021/22 in the EU…
 Trade balance broadly stable in 2020/21
(Sep.-Jul.)
Extra-EU imports of table olives (Sep.-Jul.) Extra-EU exports of table olives (Sep.-Jul.)
160 thousand tonnes 500 thousand tonnes
143 143 143
141 430 423
140 414 401 417
123
117 400 377
120

100 300
80

60 200

40
100
20

0 0
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
United States Saudi Arabia Russia Utd. Kingdom
Morocco Turkey Egypt Others Extra EU
Canada Others Extra EU
Source: Eurostat COMEXT.
 US imports of Spanish table olives
Spain - Changes in export volumes of
table olives outside the EU (Sep. - Jul.)
thousand tonnes
30
27

20

10

-10
BR
IQ
-20 -9 -16
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
United States Utd. Kingdom Russia
Saudi Arabia Canada Others

Source: IHS Global Trade Atlas.

Market selling prices of raw olives
(marketing year 2020/21)
Market selling prices of raw olives for table olives, national weighted average
(EUR per 100kg)

62.35 71.18 104.20 81.00

Source: Member States communications.

 Thank you

Market information
https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/plants-and-plant-products/plant-products/olive-oil

Agri-Food Data Portal

https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DataPortal/home.html

© European Union 2020

Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period
it is still part of the EU Customs Union. Taxud EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.

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